How To Do 21st Century Decision Making
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Strategy, Decision Making and Leadership for the 21st Century (Not the 20th Century) -- Keynote by Next Jump Co-CEOs, Charlie Kim and Meghan Messenger, for Next Jump Leadership Academy to PACE US Air Force, June 7, 2017.
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How To Do 21st Century Decision Making
- 1. 1 @charlieykim @meghanmess STRATEGY, DECISION MAKING & LEADERSHIP for the 21st Century (NOT the 20th) June 7, 2017
- 2. SPORTS BUSINESS MILITARY EDUCATION MEDICINE NxJ ADVANTAGE: learning from the best across industries
- 3. 3 The PROBLEM: what worked before doesn’t work anymore STRATEGY GREAT STRATEGY BUT EXECUTED POORLY [DOESN’T EXIST] STRATEGY CANNOT BE DIVORCED FROM EXECUTION ALL DATA COMES FROM THE PAST VUCA WORLD: DATA-DRIVEN DECISION MAKING DOESN’T WORK [FUTURE ≠ PAST] CENTRALIZED DECENTRALIZED LEADERSHIP BUT: SENIOR LEADERS FEEL EVERYTHING IS MISSION CRITICAL [FEAR OF FAILURE] JUNIOR LEADERS DON’T UNDERSTAND REAL COSTS TO FAILURE [NOT ACTING RESPONSIBLE]
- 4. 4 SOLUTION: SUCCESS = Decision Making Factory + CREATIVITY COLLABORATION NOT AFRAID TO TAKE RISKS MAKE SOMETHING THAT DID NOT EXIST INTUITION, A GUESS [INFORMED BY DATA] TEAM: WORKING W/ OTHERS MAKE “YOUR THINKING” TRANSPARENT YOU NEED TRUST
- 5. 5 EDUCATION 1.0 ISOLATION FEAR WORK 1.0 SUBJECTS [SERVE THE KING] WORK 2.0 FOLLOWERS [ASSEMBLY LINE] WORK 3.0 CITIZENS [DECISION MAKERS] EDUCATION 2.0 COMPLIANCE UNIFORMITY EDUCATION 3.0 CREATIVITY COLLABORATION 1750 KING FREDERICK THE GREAT 21ST CENTURY: INNOVATION1920 CUBBERLEY: FACTORY MODEL ORIGINS of EDUCATION = ORIGINS of WORK
- 6. - David Rose
- 8. ALL THESE COMPANIES WENT BANKRUPT
- 9. JEFF BEZOS ON BEING DISRUPTED OR BEING A DISRUPTOR WHO IS GOING TO KILL ME, IF WE DON’T MOVE? I GOTTA KILL MYSELF BEFORE THEY KILL ME.
- 10. 10 STRATEGIC CHALLENGES FACED BY ALL: DISRUPTED OR DISRUPTOR
- 11. 1991: $20MM 1996: $2MM 2001: $200K 2007: $20K NOW: $2K A) DISRUPTED OR B) DISRUPTOR: ANY COMPANY DESIGNED FOR SUCCESS IN THE 20TH CENTURY IS DOOMED TO FAILURE IN THE 21ST CENTURY
- 12. 12 Companies have outgrown traditional management.. CEOS WORRIED OF OTHER BIG CO STRATEGY CHANGED EVERY 1-5 YEARS WHAT YOU PRODUCE: PRODUCTS & SERVICES NOWBEFORE CEOS WORRY OF 2 KIDS IN A GARAGE STRATEGY CHANGES EVERY DAY WHAT YOU PRODUCE: DECISION FACTORY
- 13. 13 GENERAL ODIERNO: former Head of the U.S. Army “The world is getting so complicated, you have to decentralize decision making. Do you really know where your enemy is for sure? The winning model is to build adaptive learning teams.”
- 14. “You will do what I tell you because I out rank you” Mandate leadership, while sometimes required, is the weakest form of leadership It focuses on the process rather than the people Is easier to apply and requires less time Does not require an understanding of those you are leading Mandated leadership… Can often result in marginal solutions, disinterested members, lack of commitment to the end state, and near zero personal responsibility by those not in charge “leader/follower” model CENTRALIZED
- 15. 15 STRATEGY: OLD [20th Century] ~ WORKS OUT CENTRALIZED: STRATEGY, DECISION MAKING & LEADERSHIP GOALS KPIS/ METRICS REWARD SYSTEM/ COMP HIRING/ PROMOTIONS TRADITIONAL MANAGEMENT LEVERS STOPPED WORKING
- 16. Organic Leadership… “You are part of the solution and we are in this together” Is more difficult to apply and requires planning Requires an understanding of those you lead Requires and environment of trust, teamwork, and a shared sense of responsibility for the outcome Often results in superior solutions, greater buy-in, individual commitment to the end state, and a high degree of personal responsibility across the entire team “leader/leader-in-training” model DECENTRALIZED
- 17. 17 STRATEGY: NEW [21st Century] ~ WORKS OUT DECENTRALIZED: STRATEGY, DECISION MAKING & LEADERSHIP EVERYONE.. CONTRIBUTING TO STRATEGY MAKING DECISIONS TRAINED TO LEAD AND TRAINING OTHER LEADERS EVERYONE MUST BE TRAINED TO MAKE REAL-TIME DECISIONS/ADJUSTMENTS
- 18. 18 STRATEGY: OLD vs NEW STRATEGY CANNOT BE DIVORCED FROM EXECUTION
- 19. DECISION MAKING FACTORY [CRAFT] x [DECISION MAKING] = [10X PERFORMANCE]
- 20. HOW to do 21st Century DECISION MAKING
- 21. 21 STRATEGY is about MAKING DECISIONS/CHOICES.. IS NOT IS “NO = DOUBLE YES” YOU MUST TEST YOUR CHOICES B/C WE HEDGE: WE CANNOT SAY NO CANNOT BE STUPID ON ITS FACE IS: CUSTOMER ORIENTED IS NOT: IGNORING YOUR CUSTOMERS* * NOT A CHOICE REQUIRES COURAGE +
- 22. 22 CHOICES require COURAGE IS NOT IS C A NEXT VERSION THIS VERSION LAGGING METRICS ADULT METRICS LEADING METRICS BABY METRICS
- 23. 23 STRATEGY requires RIGOR + CREATIVITY RIGOR BRILLIANT IN THE BASICS CREATIVITY MAKE SOMETHING THAT DID NOT EXIST +
- 24. 24 HOW to be CREATIVE Simply put, creativity happens when your mind is unfocused, daydreaming or idle. (This is why we have so many “aha” moments in the shower.) Three solutions: 1/ long walks 2/ pick up a hobby/ learn something new 3/ fun and games
- 25. 25 ROOT CAUSE
- 26. LEVEL 1: GAS “GIVE A SHIT” LEVEL 2: NO LHF “LYING/HIDING/FAKING” LEVEL 3: INDEPENDENT THINKING LEVEL 4: INVITING CRITICAL FEEDBACK LEVEL 5: DECISION MAKING 26 MONEY METRIC “ON-BASE%” MONEYBALL of LEADERSHIP STRATEGY & DECISION MAKING 5 Levels to Decision Making
- 27. 27 MONEYBALL of LEADERSHIP 5 Levels to Decision Making OUTCOME: Score/Results ROOT CAUSE 1 CREATIVITY COLLABORATION ROOT CAUSE 2
- 29. 29 GAS “give a shit” No matter how good your strategy is, if your people don’t have gas “don’t give a shit”, it won’t work. WARNING: Level 1 Alone Leads to… ENTITLEMENT – perks inflation FIZZLES OUT – less exciting over time
- 30. LEVEL 2 NO LHF “LYING/ HIDING/ FAKING” ROOT CAUSE 2
- 32. Common obstacles to accuracy Anchoring bias: Over-reliance on first piece of information Expertise bias: Weighting expert “authority” over information and logic Outcome bias: Judging something based on level of desire for the outcome Ostrich effect: Ignoring dangerous or negative information Observational selection bias: Noticing what was not noted before & wrongly assessing increased frequency Halo effect: Impression of a person or entity influences the assessment of the credibility of the information he/it provides Availability bias: Overestimating importance of available information Stereotyping: Expecting a person or group to have certain qualities without having information Blind spot bias: Failing to recognize your own cognitive bias Sunk cost bias: Being attached to an investment already made (time, effort) despite utility of it
- 33. UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO Greatest threat to objectivity
- 34. LHF “lying/hiding/faking” = Walking on EGG SHELLS What does LHF feel like? Like you can’t say what you really feel. Like people are not telling you things. Like it’s not safe to disagree. Like it’s not safe to be honest. It feels like walking on egg shells. Poor performing teams are surrounded by eggs shells. And poor performing teams destroy value. 34
- 35. Q&A BREAK 5 MIN
- 36. LEVEL 2 NO LHF “LYING/ HIDING/ FAKING” WHAT is No LHF WHY we LHF HOW to reduce LHF ROOT CAUSE 2
- 38. 38 CREATIVITY: Do I have an opinion? POV I’m sharing? Am I revealing my assumptions/ rationale? FEAR: What am I afraid of? COLLABORATION: Do I make it easy for others to tell me the truth? AM I MAKING THE RIGHT CALLS? Right decisions – consistently Wrong decisions – lessons learned Indecision – the most common OUTCOME: Score/Results MONEYBALL of LEADERSHIP 5 Levels to Decision Making Our inability to deal with our fears/ our negative emotions
- 39. WHAT is No LHF TRUTH, AUTHENTICITY, LEAVING NOTHING UNSAID FACTS, MY THINKING, MY ASSUMPTIONS, GUT/INTUITION, WHAT YOU’RE FEELING [HIGHEST FORM OF TRANSPARENCY]
- 40. 40 FEAR: LHF RECKLESS: INAPPROPRIATE TRANSPARENCY TRUTH: NO LHF Too little Too much TRUTH
- 41. 41 Inappropriate Transparency TRUTH WHEN DATING TRUTH WHEN RENOVATING
- 43. 43 No LHF
- 44. 44 LHF: Lying/ Hiding/ Faking
- 45. 45
- 46. Lying Truth
- 47. The 2nd Job In an ordinary organization, most people are doing a second job no one is paying them for. In businesses large and small; in government agencies, schools, and hospitals; in for-profits and non-profits and in any country in the world, most people are spending time and energy covering up their weaknesses, managing other people’s impressions of them, showing themselves to their best advantage, playing politics, hiding their inadequacies, hiding their uncertainties, hiding their limitations. Hiding. We regard this as the single biggest loss of resources that organizations suffer everyday. 47
- 48. WHY we LHF
- 49. 49 why we LHF TOP 3 REASONS [FEAR] 1. We Feel Inferior – it’s contagious 2. We Make a Mistake – leads to downward spirals 3. Loyalty – how we justify it
- 50. 50 1. We Feel Inferior – it’s contagious
- 51. 51 CULPRIT: we make others feel inferior REALITY LIES
- 52. 52 We cannot “stay in our own lane”, we feel inferior watching others succeed VICTIM: can’t stay in our own lane
- 53. 53 DOWNWARD SPIRALS 2. We Make a Mistake – leads to downward spirals
- 54. 54 DRIVERS of our SUCCESS are also our LIMITING FACTORS You have more responsibility & stress Now you worry about how you look You make a mistake, “you’re in your head” You start LHF (hiding emotionally) Emotional Hiding quickly turns into Physically Hiding You show up to the “bare minimum” When junior, effort gets you noticed Gives you the opportunity to get promoted Back to basics: SHOW UP/ EFFORT Reapply GAS
- 55. 3. Loyalty – how we justify it 55
- 56. WHERE IT GOES WRONG: LOYALTY ENTERPRISE TEAM/Dept SELF 56
- 57. HOW to reduce LHF YOU HAVE TO TACKLE YOUR FEARS
- 58. 58 2 KEY PROGRAMs to build a DECISION MAKING FACTORY COACH SAFE PEER FEEDBACK UNSAFE MAKE IT CULTURAL: EVERYONE MUST DO BOTH [LEARN + TEACH]
- 60. 60 DISRUPTED DISRUPTOR COMPANYINDIVIDUAL A.I. [YOUR JOB AUTOMATED] CREATIVITY [THE HUMAN ADVANTAGE] +- FEAR LHF NO CREATIVITY NO COLLABORATION BAD DECISION MAKING In Summary
Editor's Notes
- EDU 1.0 – how do you control the masses of people w/out using a gun. Kindergarten: garden the children so they will serve the king. Isolation – rows, can’t talk to each other, teachers isolation in classrooms Fear – everyone afraid of the next level, kids, teachers, principals, superintendents Do what you’re told. Every semester new teacher, can’t collaborate b/c new teacher King Frederick's system was designed to teach obedience to solidify his control of the country EDU 2.0 – industrial schools, no collaboration, children move along like widgets on assembly line: math, science, etc. key characteristics of factory model education are top-down management, emphasis on management, centralized planning, standardization, efficiency in producing results typified by efficiency and uniformity, often resembling a factory building. system has been described as being "designed to create docile subjects and factory workers Cubberley described "schools as, in a sense, factories in which the raw products (children) are to be shaped and fashioned into products to meet the various demands of life.” Factory model schools employ direct instruction methods: a teacher drilled information into the class in "assembly line fashion",[6] the students learn by rote copying and memorization, and they are then tested on the information presented to them factory model method also features depersonalization, strict hierarchy of authority, uniformity over innovation, process and procedure, and standardization of curriculum, testing, class sizes, time periods, and learning rates EDU 3.0 – preschools, charter schools, school for autism, training former prisoners
- 15 years to build amazon book business. He built Kindle ebook in 2 years.
- ) 1991 – David Rose 1st internet company, $20MM VC raised to get to 1st product shipped ) 1996 – next company, rather than server farm, used cloud, $2MM raised to get to 1st product shipped ) 2001 – first angel investment, wireless internet co, took $200K to 1st internet product shipped ) 2007 – led investment round, online marketplace, bootstrapped sweat equity, $20K only, now worth $150MM ) NOW – few thousand dollars to get someone to create a mobile app for you, Brooklyn, Botswana, bangalore
- Requires leadership to take an organization from Low High
- Requires leadership to take an organization from Low High
- Highest form of radical transparency is NO LHF. You can be transparent to the question I ask but if I don’t ask it… Best diligence question ever – “What am I not asking you that I should be asking…”
- This is a complex topic – dealing with the reasons why we LHF Yet it is also the MONEY METRIC – the limiting factor to almost every career
- Titantic Bin Laden
- This is a complex topic – dealing with the reasons why we LHF Yet it is also the MONEY METRIC – the limiting factor to almost every career
- Inappropriate Transparency happens far less Majority of what happens is lying/hiding/faking As a culture, as a society, we’re more likely to not say the truth
- It is not THIS
- When you’re doing it right, NO LHF, this is what it looks like What you see, what you hear…but most importantly, what you feel “something doesn’t feel right” – you share [this is not optional] This is what creates group think. Transparency so someone can benefit from your signal, but can also correct your assumption
- Years later, I learned from an amazing mentor, friend and coach: Jim Loehr, this problem is so common, it has a name. It’s called “The Imposter Syndrome” AND by the way…The more successful you get, the worse this problem gets. The majority of senior leaders in the world feel this way. Most of you have probably seen this movie Catch Me If You Can. It looks glamorous, he’s an imposter… ) when you're LHF you are an imposter ) you're pretending to be somebody you're not And when you do that (I'm going to into few examples of why we do that) but first I'm going to tell you what the cost of doing this is
- ) this is what it looks like, looks glamorous at first but if you saw the movie Xyz this is the cost, this is what it looks at like It's exhausting and can ruin your life. Your career
- Scientific data from neurologists, best brain doctors in the country that…it Takes twice as much energy to lie than tell the truth If an average person worked 45 hours in a week, 15 hours on their first job telling the truth. 30 hours is spend lying hiding faking doing their 2nd Job. We can’t reduce this to zero. For instance I don’t recommend walking into a board meeting and say: I have no idea what I’m doing. There are times when the truth is just unnecessary. You have a cute baby – doesn’t have to be true.
- The book NxJ was recently case studied in: An Everyone Culture, talks about the 2nd Job. The very first lines go like this…
- Feeling inferior – you feel less than your colleague Most senior person asks you – is this clear? Guy sitting next to you says: crystal clear Next person – got it Comes to you – are you going to say, “sorry, I actually have no clue, I’m lost”
- It’s not the fumble (accidents happen)… It’s the series of mistakes that follow (downward spiral)… …that cost you the game.
- This is a cycle, you can get stuck in this cycle…for years, your entire career In most companies, they take away your power. They passive aggressively remove decision making power from your hands. They don’t trust you anymore. Once you master Level 2, your chances of success increase exponentially Getting to Level 3: independent thinking, Level 4: inviting critical feedback, Level 5: making better decisions It’s the foundation of success: SHOW UP, BE HONEST
- Volunteering that might make you look bad. But on the off chance it can benefit the enterprise
- We care about how we look over the enterprise When we prioritize fear in ourselves, the fear of looking bad – we are prioritizing SELF over the ENTERPRISE ----- We don’t need to know everything…but when could jeopardize the enterprise.. Loyalty – the choice to protect your ego/ your brand/ your pride…vs do what’s right for the enterprise
- Going to feel like you’ve been punched in the face – the first time you get it. You may not be able to function after it, can’t believe someone would talk to you like that. Something Brene Brown said: “It’s you're job receiving feedback – find the pearls of wisdom b/c not everyone gives feedback well.” Build a culture People are scared to get feedback and give feedback. People are scared of the truth. But you can’t operate on bed of LHF. If decision making occurs on LHF, you’re gonna lose. With practice like anything you become less scared…