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Carat's 10 trends for 2020

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Try to name an industry that is not threatened by tech disruption. Our 2020 vision for consumer, media and technology trends is centred in our belief that the marketplace is increasingly converging around the global tech-giant ecosystems. Many of the trends that we will comment upon are the ripple effects of the diversification of these platforms away from their original specialism. The more lines of business the big platforms develop the more complex they become – and the further the ripple effects travel into the economy and society. Our driving trend for 2020 is entitled ‘Colliding Ecosystems’. It reflects the points made above about the expansion of and ultimately heightened competition between the big tech-platforms.

1 von 62
DECEMBER 2019
T E N T R E N D S F O R 2 0 2 0 - C A R A T
TEN TRENDS
FOR 2020
THE YEAR OF ALL-
CONQUERING
ECOSYSTEMS
T E N T R E N D S F O R 2 0 2 0 – C A R A T /
Try to name an industry that is not threatened by tech disruption.
Our 2020 vision for consumer, media and technology trends is
centred in our belief that the marketplace is increasingly
converging around the global tech-giant ecosystems.
Many of the trends that we will comment upon are the ripple
effects of the diversification of these platforms away from their
original specialism.
The more lines of business the big platforms develop the more
complex they become – and the further the ripple effects travel
into the economy and society.
Our driving trend for 2020 is entitled ‘Colliding Ecosystems’. It
reflects the points made above about the expansion of and
ultimately heightened competition between the big tech-
platforms.
TRENDS FOR 2020
2
1. Colliding Ecosystems
2. From Platforms to Producers
3. What’s Yours is Mine
4. Invisible Money
5. Life is Just a (Video) Game
6. Play it Your Way
TEN TRENDS
3
Ecosystem Economics
The Gamification of Everything
Hide & Seek with Audiences
7. Cookie Cutters
8. Dark(er) Social
9. Post-Production Advertising
10. The Age of Addressable TV
T E N T R E N D S F O R 2 0 2 0 – C A R A T /
The leading technology ecosystems are growing stronger and
broadening their scope.
It used to feel like the tech-giants were on different train
tracks, running side by side, but never meeting. Now they are
more like dodgems, always bumping into each other.
There is much more direct competition between them in
several areas, including video, gaming and retail.
COLLIDING ECOSYSTEMS
4T E N T R E N D S F O R 2 0 2 0 – C A R A T /
YouTube used to be a synonym for online videos.
Now its parent company Google is facing tightening competition,
when Facebook, Apple and Amazon
are investing in video content. While the formats
are different, they are all competing for time spent.
Facebook has introduced a ‘Watch’ tab which more than 140m
people view daily. Video is also huge on Instagram, where 50% of
stories feature an element of video.
Amazon is ramping up its Prime video offering, and has started to
film its Lord of the Rings series, the world’s most expensive TV show.
Apple is also investing heavily in video with a $6bn content budget,
and its own AppleTV+ service.
COLLIDING ECOSYSTEMS
5T E N T R E N D S F O R 2 0 2 0 – C A R A T /
Apple launched Arcade, its subscription gaming platform in
September 2019. Users pay $4.99 for access to as many games as
they want, with new games added regularly. The service is free
from ads.
Google Stadia gaming service launched in November 2019,
featuring games streamed online. There is a free level, but also a
paid tier, with higher resolution and more games.
Facebook is betting on VR games. In late 2019, it acquired Beat
Games –the game studio behind the world’s most popular VR
game Beat Saber. Gaming is turning into a big area for Facebook
with the creation of its social VR platform Horizon. It is a place for
Oculus users’ avatars to meet, hang out, and play games together.
Amazon owns Twitch, the most popular game streaming platform.
Twitch accounts for about 70% of live streams globally, but
Microsoft, Google and Facebook are coming after it with
competing streaming services.
COLLIDING ECOSYSTEMS
6T E N T R E N D S F O R 2 0 2 0 – C A R A T /

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Carat's 10 trends for 2020

  • 1. DECEMBER 2019 T E N T R E N D S F O R 2 0 2 0 - C A R A T TEN TRENDS FOR 2020 THE YEAR OF ALL- CONQUERING ECOSYSTEMS
  • 2. T E N T R E N D S F O R 2 0 2 0 – C A R A T / Try to name an industry that is not threatened by tech disruption. Our 2020 vision for consumer, media and technology trends is centred in our belief that the marketplace is increasingly converging around the global tech-giant ecosystems. Many of the trends that we will comment upon are the ripple effects of the diversification of these platforms away from their original specialism. The more lines of business the big platforms develop the more complex they become – and the further the ripple effects travel into the economy and society. Our driving trend for 2020 is entitled ‘Colliding Ecosystems’. It reflects the points made above about the expansion of and ultimately heightened competition between the big tech- platforms. TRENDS FOR 2020 2
  • 3. 1. Colliding Ecosystems 2. From Platforms to Producers 3. What’s Yours is Mine 4. Invisible Money 5. Life is Just a (Video) Game 6. Play it Your Way TEN TRENDS 3 Ecosystem Economics The Gamification of Everything Hide & Seek with Audiences 7. Cookie Cutters 8. Dark(er) Social 9. Post-Production Advertising 10. The Age of Addressable TV T E N T R E N D S F O R 2 0 2 0 – C A R A T /
  • 4. The leading technology ecosystems are growing stronger and broadening their scope. It used to feel like the tech-giants were on different train tracks, running side by side, but never meeting. Now they are more like dodgems, always bumping into each other. There is much more direct competition between them in several areas, including video, gaming and retail. COLLIDING ECOSYSTEMS 4T E N T R E N D S F O R 2 0 2 0 – C A R A T /
  • 5. YouTube used to be a synonym for online videos. Now its parent company Google is facing tightening competition, when Facebook, Apple and Amazon are investing in video content. While the formats are different, they are all competing for time spent. Facebook has introduced a ‘Watch’ tab which more than 140m people view daily. Video is also huge on Instagram, where 50% of stories feature an element of video. Amazon is ramping up its Prime video offering, and has started to film its Lord of the Rings series, the world’s most expensive TV show. Apple is also investing heavily in video with a $6bn content budget, and its own AppleTV+ service. COLLIDING ECOSYSTEMS 5T E N T R E N D S F O R 2 0 2 0 – C A R A T /
  • 6. Apple launched Arcade, its subscription gaming platform in September 2019. Users pay $4.99 for access to as many games as they want, with new games added regularly. The service is free from ads. Google Stadia gaming service launched in November 2019, featuring games streamed online. There is a free level, but also a paid tier, with higher resolution and more games. Facebook is betting on VR games. In late 2019, it acquired Beat Games –the game studio behind the world’s most popular VR game Beat Saber. Gaming is turning into a big area for Facebook with the creation of its social VR platform Horizon. It is a place for Oculus users’ avatars to meet, hang out, and play games together. Amazon owns Twitch, the most popular game streaming platform. Twitch accounts for about 70% of live streams globally, but Microsoft, Google and Facebook are coming after it with competing streaming services. COLLIDING ECOSYSTEMS 6T E N T R E N D S F O R 2 0 2 0 – C A R A T /
  • 7. Amazon has the world’s largest ecommerce site, selling millions of products directly, through its marketplace, and now through physical stores. Facebook has started to sell through its social channels, both with Instagram Checkout, but also with shoppable ads in both platforms. It is also introducing tools for merchants to sell on WhatsApp. Google has also introduced shoppable ads, and is moving into other areas, like allowing its users to order restaurant deliveries. Apple’s role in retail is in providing payments. All of the four now offer payments, but Apple Pay is the biggest, accepted in more than a million locations, and a physical payment card has just been introduced. COLLIDING ECOSYSTEMS 7T E N T R E N D S F O R 2 0 2 0 – C A R A T /
  • 8. IMPLICATIONS Brands will need to spend more money with the big tech ecosystems. Not necessarily on advertising, but using all their capabilities. 8T E N T R E N D S F O R 2 0 2 0 – C A R A T / According to Dentsu Aegis Network CMO Survey, 50% of CMOs plan to increase direct spending with the likes of Facebook, Google, Tencent and WeChat over the next two to three years. Partners will benefit from high reach, but suffer from silo-ed data – hard to compare openly with other providers. It may be best to go all in with one partner – or even to cut one out, as Nike has just done by removing its items from Amazon.
  • 9. Platforms are using their data to create own-label content and products, directly competing with the merchants that use their platforms. Netflix started creating its own original content in 2013 with House of Cards, created and cast with insight into which genres, directors and actors its viewers liked. It did not guarantee success, but it helped. FROM PLATFORMS TO PRODUCERS 9T E N T R E N D S F O R 2 0 2 0 – C A R A T /
  • 10. Amazon has been selling its own label products since 2009, but has recently increased its scope, moving from low cost basics to more designed brands. It now has over 80 own label brands, including Lark & Ro (women’s wear), 206 Collective (shoes), A For Awesome (kids clothing), and NuPro (tech accessories). They have created Tovess, their own small batch gin. Amazon has been accused of showing ads for its own brands in its search results for competing brands. FROM PLATFORMS TO PRODUCERS 10T E N T R E N D S F O R 2 0 2 0 – C A R A T /
  • 11. Food delivery platform Deliveroo has reportedly started to create their own food brands. Deliveroo operates ‘dark kitchens’ – kitchens not attached to a restaurant and for delivery only – in many areas to let restaurant brands deliver in areas where they don’t have a physical restaurant. However it is now creating its own delivery-only brands for these kitchens – based on the knowledge of what the local customers like. Airbnb is creating 200 luxury apartments in New York, over 8 floors of the Rockefeller Plaza. Again, it has the advantage of knowing what travellers want to find in a short-term let, based on 10 years of reviews and ratings of properties on its own platform. FROM PLATFORMS TO PRODUCERS 11T E N T R E N D S F O R 2 0 2 0 – C A R A T /
  • 12. It is not only very specific platforms that are doing this. Facebook, Apple and Google are also ‘cutting out the middleman’ and introducing their own services based on what they can see happening on their platforms. Facebook has launched a dating feature in 20 markets, integrated into both Facebook and Instagram, and leveraging people’s existing networks. Apple is taking features from popular apps in its app store, and making them features of its phones, like MeMoji, a very similar idea to Bitmoji. Google is now one of the most popular places online for reviews, after years of sending traffic to Yelp & TripAdvisor. FROM PLATFORMS TO PRODUCERS 12T E N T R E N D S F O R 2 0 2 0 – C A R A T /
  • 13. IMPLICATIONS Have a direct route to the audience through your own channels and sales platform – don’t rely on marketplaces. 13T E N T R E N D S F O R 2 0 2 0 – C A R A T / Invest in your brand, emphasise your authenticity, your quality, your heritage and your point of difference. If you just compete on price, then you can’t compete. When more people use smart speakers, they will only get one choice of product, and if no brand is stated, the default is likely to be own label. Form partnerships to create products exclusively for platforms under your own brand. Both Tuft & Needle, and Bic do this, making mattresses and razors respectively for Amazon.
  • 14. A decade after the launch of Airbnb & Uber, the concept of ownership is being re-invented through the rise of new models for rental and resale. Developing technology and changing attitudes towards sharing economy are making sharing, borrowing, and reselling models accessible at scale. Both peer-to-peer and B2C services are emerging. WHAT’S YOURS IS MINE 14T E N T R E N D S F O R 2 0 2 0 – C A R A T /
  • 15. Rental is becoming an alternative to purchase in some categories, notably apparel and accessories. Instead of one-off rental (like tuxedos and ball gowns), new models are based on subscription rental that lets customers rent a set number of items each month. There are lots of new offerings, for example Rent The Runway, Parcel22, and Nuuly (from Urban Outfitters). There are also peer-to-peer versions like Hurr and By Rotation, where you rent directly from other members. Rental is also moving into other categories with companies like Ikea and Lego either trialling or discussing it. WHAT’S YOURS IS MINE 15T E N T R E N D S F O R 2 0 2 0 – C A R A T /
  • 16. Resale is also becoming a vital part of retail. Delivery networks make it easier to collect good quality items, and image recognition makes it easier to identify and list them. This makes it easier for customers to find really sought-after vintage and pre-owned items, often cheaper than new ones. Big stores like Macy’s are starting to sell pre-owned items though partnerships with companies like ThredUp. Growing environmental consciousness boosts the trend. Why buy new when you can buy something nearly new that could be better quality and not use up additional resources? WHAT’S YOURS IS MINE 16T E N T R E N D S F O R 2 0 2 0 – C A R A T /
  • 17. T E N T R E N D S F O R 2 0 2 0 – C A R A T / 17 IMPLICATIONS The environment should be the big winner from this trend – As new models take off, resources will be used more efficiently. The ongoing rise of conscious consumerism means that every brand will need to find ways to offer exceptional customer experiences with less natural resources. Sharing economy is increasingly seen as part of “the economy”. Create a shift to quality and durability, not disposability.
  • 18. Finance and payment are becoming more flexible, more automatic and more invisible as they become more digital. Apps like Uber and Lyft have made people used to the idea, that a payment happens automatically in the background when the service has been carried out. Fin-tech unicorn Klarna is providing shoppers with more flexibility by separating the payment from the purchase. Klarna lets shoppers buy goods on ecommerce sites by just entering email address and phone number. After 14 days customers can pay back Klarna – or return the goods. INVISIBLE MONEY 18T E N T R E N D S F O R 2 0 2 0 – C A R A T /
  • 19. Challenger banks like Monzo, N26 and Starling operate without branches, but with apps as their primary touchpoint. Similarly, the world’s largest financial services firm is Alibaba’s Ant Financial with over one billion clients – and without any branch. Instead, these companies provide flexibility, automation. Monzo ‘pays’ its customers the day before payday, if they get their salary paid into their account. Barclays lets users of its app block certain companies – for example online gambling sites – to help control spending. Apple is now adopting some of these features through its new credit card. It also gives cashback on purchases from Apple itself, and select partners including Uber and Walgreens. INVISIBLE MONEY 19T E N T R E N D S F O R 2 0 2 0 – C A R A T /
  • 20. Global currencies are coming. Mass market cryptocurrencies are probably years away from acceptance, but in the meantime other, more traditional ways of payment are available. It is now possible for users of AliPay, the Alibaba payment app, to shop with the app in western regions like the Nordics. It’s as if they never left home. Facebook is launching Facebook Pay, a way to pay across its four main platforms. People can send money to merchants, friends or good causes, regardless of currencies. Banks are also starting to offer multi-currency accounts and cards, so that people can save on exchange rates when they travel or do business across national borders. INVISIBLE MONEY 20T E N T R E N D S F O R 2 0 2 0 – C A R A T /
  • 21. IMPLICATIONS The shift to digital payments will have most impact on businesses that rely on cash sales, including impulse purchases at the till. 21T E N T R E N D S F O R 2 0 2 0 – C A R A T / More transactions will become separated from the product or service, in the way that subscriptions work automatically, or Uber and AmazonGo take money with a simple notification. Banking and budgeting apps are becoming like fitness apps, with visualisation of data, and performance goals. This is leading to the gamification of money and finance. Australian bank Douugh even markets itself as ‘helping you live financially healthier’.
  • 22. Gaming is becoming a much bigger part of the entertainment and media world, and its influence is starting to spread into other areas. Games have always been inspired by other cultures, especially sport and movies, but as we enter the streaming age, we see the inspiration moving the other way. We see this influence in culture, particularly in sport and music, and in offline leisure activities. LIFE IS JUST A (VIDEO) GAME 22T E N T R E N D S F O R 2 0 2 0 – C A R A T /
  • 23. Sport is competing for time and attention with eSports and gaming, particularly among the young. According to the Financial Times, the median age of golf fans is 64, for English Premier League football it is 43 and for eSports it is 25. Formula One and NBA are now shown live on Twitch. Coverage includes streamers commentating, and a leader board of viewers predictions for real-time results. The look of video games is changing how sport is presented on TV, and the influence of eSports tournaments is even changing sports events themselves. The Challenge Japan Skins golf tournament in October 2019 was a game-style 4-player challenge, with different prize money for each of the 18 holes. LIFE IS JUST A (VIDEO) GAME 23T E N T R E N D S F O R 2 0 2 0 – C A R A T /
  • 24. Music is also being influenced by gaming. A track on a game soundtrack can bring millions of new listeners. The next step is artists and their shows being integrated into games. Minecraft is already hosting electronic music festivals, and DJ Marshmello played the biggest ever “live” concert in Fortnite in 2019. Brands are now getting involved in gaming in similar ways to sport. Nike and Puma make official kit for eSports teams. Adidas partners with the streaming star Ninja. ABI has registered a trade mark for ‘The Official Beer of eSports.’ We are also seeing gaming move out of the home and become a night out in its own right. The Void has a number of venues around the world, and is developing immersive VR experiences with film companies. LIFE IS JUST A (VIDEO) GAME 24T E N T R E N D S F O R 2 0 2 0 – C A R A T /
  • 25. IMPLICATIONS Gaming and eSports can be seen as the new TV, the new cinema, the new sport and the new music. Any brands involved in these areas should also be involved in gaming. 25T E N T R E N D S F O R 2 0 2 0 – C A R A T / Gaming and eSports are becoming more open to brand involvement, as long as it fits with gaming culture. There is lots of scope for combining partnerships in other media, for example sports or event sponsorship with in-game partnerships. Twitch is going to become more mainstream, hosting content beyond gaming, for example music and comedy that will also appeal to its audience.
  • 26. Gaming is also influencing how stories are being told, with viewers getting the chance to drive the action. The idea is not new – witness the successful ’choose your own adventure’ books from the 1980s – but the speed and connectivity is now here to bring it to digital media without delays and buffering. Netflix has been making interactive kids shows for a while, but in December 2018 it released its most advanced effort, the Black Mirror episode Bandersnatch, where viewers became players and had to choose between different paths in the story. Now Netflix is investigating making more shows interactive including turning the most popular ones like Stranger Things into games. PLAY IT YOUR WAY 26T E N T R E N D S F O R 2 0 2 0 – C A R A T /
  • 27. Porsche created a game called Formula E Unlocked on Twitch, which gave players the ability to control two actors with body cams as they explored a Porsche facility and solved puzzles to reveal the Formula E race car. It launched in late August 2019, lasted for over three hours, and had about 30,000 views at any time, and over 2m in total. PLAY IT YOUR WAY 27T E N T R E N D S F O R 2 0 2 0 – C A R A T /
  • 28. Eko is an Israeli / US start-up that creates short films that ask you to make choices every few seconds. So far it has done partnerships with BuzzFeed and Walmart (also for recipes), and the videos are even shoppable – click through at the end to buy the ingredients. By involving the viewer in the action, interactive storytelling brings more engagement for brands. As stories and games merge more in the future, particularly with the opportunities in VR, non-linear narratives will grow. PLAY IT YOUR WAY 28T E N T R E N D S F O R 2 0 2 0 – C A R A T /
  • 29. IMPLICATIONS Interactive video will boost creativity by giving brands new ways to tell their stories. 29T E N T R E N D S F O R 2 0 2 0 – C A R A T / This trend points to a more playful world, and a world more appealing to people who play games. Interactive videos are more expensive – Just as Bandersnatch cost as much as a whole series of Black Mirror episodes, producing interactive videos with different paths will cost more than making linear films. We may soon see smoother interactive storytelling solutions that use AI to personalise content in the background or based on users’ previous preferences.
  • 30. Cookies – pieces of code placed on web browsers to track devices – have been used in digital media for 25 years, but their relevance is now in decline. In many ways, cookies are useful. First-party cookies can tell a site that you are a repeat visitor and save your preferences. Third-party cookies – placed by ad tech – can stop you from seeing the same ad over and over again. However, concerns about privacy have led both Apple’s Safari browser and Firefox to start blocking cookies or limiting both types. Studies show that advertisers can now only place cookies on 60% of browsers, down from 85% a year ago. Figures correlate with iOS usage – in the US only 44% of browsers accept cookies. COOKIE CUTTERS 30T E N T R E N D S F O R 2 0 2 0 – C A R A T /
  • 31. Where browsers do not accept cookies, it is hard for sites and advertisers to identify devices, and profile them; for example, to see what other websites they visit, and whether they have been exposed to advertising. It makes it impossible to re-target ads at people who have visited your site before, or people who have already responded to an ad, and are likely to react to another one. Without cookies, it is also difficult to see the effectiveness of a campaign, and optimise campaigns by moving ads from sites that are not driving response to ones that are. COOKIE CUTTERS 31T E N T R E N D S F O R 2 0 2 0 – C A R A T /
  • 32. It is very likely that cookie acceptance will continue to fall, as more browsers adopt strict policies, and legislators impose restrictions on tracking technologies. Publishers are likely to charge more for the audiences that they can track. Publishers are also likely to try to gather more data on their audiences in other ways, for example, incentivising them to set up accounts, and to accept cookies (similar to insisting that visitors turn off ad blockers). Creating their own apps also becomes more tempting for publishers. Apps still record data, for example unique device IDs. Technology companies are trying to find alternatives to cookies, for example extrapolating other data to predict audience characteristics. COOKIE CUTTERS 32T E N T R E N D S F O R 2 0 2 0 – C A R A T /
  • 33. IMPLICATIONS 33 Access to first-party user data is more valuable than ever. Publishers will increasingly incentivise users to sign in, so that they can understand more about their audience, and monetise their visitors more effectively. T E N T R E N D S F O R 2 0 2 0 – C A R A T / Brands and agencies need to balance this greater online privacy with the need for better tracking, and better attribution, for example, so that advertisers don’t advertise to people who have already bought. There will be more focus on creative, and more focus on context to keep advertising working effectively. There will be attempts to replace cookies with some kind of Universal ID, partly driven by analysis of audiences through AI – but this is unlikely to be effective in the short term. Brands should move to less web-based channels – for example, in-app advertising, and new devices like smart TV.
  • 34. Social media is becoming more private, more focussed and more local. Social media users are choosing which content to share with whom and on which platforms, leading to less being shared openly in the timeline. This trend has accelerated since Instagram introduced its ‘Close Friends’ feature at the end of 2018, allowing people to choose whether to share pictures with all followers, or just selected ones. The feature got questionable publicity in 2019 when UK TV personality Coleen Rooney used it to find out who’s leaking her private posts to the press. DARK(ER) SOCIAL 34T E N T R E N D S F O R 2 0 2 0 – C A R A T /
  • 35. The popularity of private messaging and closed groups is growing hand in hand with the mistrust over tracking issues. Over 50% of people in the UK, US and Australia have the highest privacy settings in their social media profiles, according to our proprietary data, When people are sharing less publicly, Facebook is putting more focus onto its groups (essentially forums), that people need to apply to join. Non members can’t see group content. Several brands have created their own groups, for example Peloton, whose group has over 200,000 members. DARK(ER) SOCIAL 35T E N T R E N D S F O R 2 0 2 0 – C A R A T /
  • 36. Creators are also able to monetise their work on a number of platforms, creating a divide between what all fans see, and what paying subscribers see. Thingtesting is an Instagram account that tests and reviews new products, often from direct to consumer brands. It has started selling places on a ‘close friends’ list as an unofficial subscription, so that people who pay can see exclusive content. DARK(ER) SOCIAL 36T E N T R E N D S F O R 2 0 2 0 – C A R A T /
  • 37. IMPLICATIONS Brands with super-fans will benefit most from this trend. These fans will want a closer connection to the brand and to other fans. 37T E N T R E N D S F O R 2 0 2 0 – C A R A T / More private sharing brings more trust to the network - whether it be in a messaging group, a close friends network, or an interest group. It will be harder for brands to get organic reach. Having ‘close friends’ is another signal for social media algorithms and another indication that consumers do not prioritise status updates from brands. Interest groups are about communication with context. Does your brands have the right profile, trust and authenticity to have its own group, or to be part of a group? If so, brands can try to create a group, or use brand ambassadors as their representatives within established relevant interest groups.
  • 38. Advertising is currently seeing lots of innovation, as publishers and content creators search for new ways to monetise their assets. New technologies are allowing digital advertising to be added to content in post production. Mirriad allows advertising to be put into TV shows after they have been created, for example as posters on the wall, a can of drink on a table, or a car parked in the street Mirriad is currently available in the US, China, India, and parts of Europe. It cannot yet work programmatically – and so can’t be addressable – but this feature will come. POST-PRODUCTION ADVERTISING 38T E N T R E N D S F O R 2 0 2 0 – C A R A T /
  • 39. Supponor is a new sports media whose augmented reality technology is revolutionising perimeter advertising in sports. They can replace traditional perimeter advertising in sports broadcasts with virtual, digital content. Fans across the world watching a sporting event see live TV feeds identical in every way – but with pitch-side advertisements relevant to them. Supponor recently signed a deal to provide virtual ads at Camp Nou during FC Barcelona’s La Liga games. POST-PRODUCTION ADVERTISING 39T E N T R E N D S F O R 2 0 2 0 – C A R A T /
  • 40. BidStack places ads in video games as billboards within the game. It offers programmatic advertising in several sports games, including football and racing. The presence of ads for real brands makes the games feel more realistic! The ads integrate into the game at the developer level, and then appear whatever device the games are played on. With more games played for free on streaming services, more will try to monetise in this way. POST-PRODUCTION ADVERTISING 40T E N T R E N D S F O R 2 0 2 0 – C A R A T /
  • 41. IMPLICATIONS Advertising in these new channels is built in by the producers and agencies, which makes it impossible to block the advertising. 41T E N T R E N D S F O R 2 0 2 0 – C A R A T / Beware; this also means that measurement is specific to the platform and provided by the channel. This makes it silo-ed and not directly comparable with other channels Where ads are placed into games there will be a secondary audience of people watching the gameplay on channels like Twitch
  • 42. Addressable TV advertising – the ability to target TV audiences with similar accuracy as digital advertising – is now a reality, and its reach is expanding. Penetration of Smart TVs is rising, and set to rise still further as Smart TVs now account for over 70% of TV shipments globally. Content platforms and technologies are vying to be the most flexible and effective in targeting viewers on the biggest screens in the home. eMarketer estimates US connected TV advertising spend at $7bn for 2019 (excluding ads bought in traditional placements). Roku claims that only 3% of US TV ad budgets are spent on connected TV, but connected TV is nearly 30% of viewing. THE AGE OF ADDRESSABLE TV 42T E N T R E N D S F O R 2 0 2 0 – C A R A T /
  • 43. While Netflix and Disney+ do not feature ads, more and more platforms are letting people put ads into on-demand and catch-up TV. Samsung lets advertisers target households by their characteristics, for example ‘gamers’. YouTube now lets advertisers specifically target people watching on Smart TVs, in the same way that you can target mobile or tablet viewers separately, and has started to create TV-only formats, for example masthead ads. eMarketer estimates that 70% of US connected TV advertising is either on YouTube, Hulu or Roku. THE AGE OF ADDRESSABLE TV 43T E N T R E N D S F O R 2 0 2 0 – C A R A T /
  • 44. Sky TV has developed technology to put addressable advertising into linear (‘live’) TV. AdSmart allows advertisers to target households based on their viewing choices, spending habits, lifestyle, and even if they have a cat. So far nearly 2,000 brands in the UK have advertised on AdSmart, including over 75% of the UK’s top advertisers. It has now been extended to other broadcast partners in the UK and US – most notably to NBCUniversal, with their $11bn US ad operation. THE AGE OF ADDRESSABLE TV 44T E N T R E N D S F O R 2 0 2 0 – C A R A T /
  • 45. IMPLICATIONS Rumours of TV’s demise are greatly exaggerated. There is now more potential to target audiences on the biggest screen in the home. 45T E N T R E N D S F O R 2 0 2 0 – C A R A T / Use the big canvas creatively – for example, high-quality assets work well. Remember that video ad completion rate is much higher on smart TV than on other devices. Focus on the ending, not only the beginning of the spot. New services can’t be tracked independently through 3rd parties like BARB and Nielsen – advertisers will be reliant on platform measurement. The wealth of new subscription services may be unsustainable and is likely to lead to more ad-funded VOD content as people realise that they do not want to subscribe to more than two or three different services.
  • 46. ABOUT CARAT 46 Carat is a market-leading media agency and RECMA’s #1 ranked global media agency group for 113 of the past 142 reports. The business draws on over 10,000 experts globally to deliver diverse media solutions for clients, operating across 190+ offices in 135+ countries. Key global clients include General Motors, Diageo, Kellogg’s, Mondelez, Philips, P&G, Coca-Cola and Mastercard. T E N T R E N D S F O R 2 0 2 0 – C A R A T / Read the full whitepaper The year of all-conquering ecosystems – Carat Trends 2020 on Carat.com. CONTACT Dan Calladine Head of Media Futures dan.calladine@carat.com
  • 47. Appendix 1 47 Links & photo sources Colliding Ecosystems 140m people view Watch videos daily https://about.fb.com/news/2019/06/catching-up-with-facebook-watch/ Amazon is spending $1bn on Lord of The Rings https://www.esquire.com/uk/latest-news/a21079989/amazons-billion-dollar-lord-of- the-rings-will-span-five-seasons/ Apple’s TV content budget is $6bn https://www.macrumors.com/2019/08/19/apple-tv-plus-6-billion-spent/ Apple Arcade details & costs https://www.macworld.com/article/3385024/apple-arcade-faq-games-price- compatibility.html Facebook and VR gaming https://thenextweb.com/facebook/2019/09/25/ready-player-what-facebook- announces-a-new-vr-social-network/?mc_cid=0a3cbe2928&mc_eid=5602d2e24f Twitch accounts for approximately 70% of live streams https://techcrunch.com/2019/07/12/twitch-continues-to-dominate-live-streaming- with-its-second-biggest-quarter-to-date/ Instagram Checkout – selling on Instagram https://instagram-press.com/blog/2019/03/19/instagram-checkout/ Facebook’s shoppable ads https://www.socialmediatoday.com/news/facebook-tests-new-in-app-shopping-ads- for-both-facebook-and-instagram/562550/ Google’s shoppable ads https://www.searchenginejournal.com/google-introduces-shoppable-ads-on-google- images/296551/ Apple Pay is accepted in millions of places around the world https://www.macrumors.com/roundup/apple-pay/
  • 48. Appendix 1 48 Links & photo sources From Platforms to Producers How Netflix used data to help create House of Cards https://www.idginsiderpro.com/article/3207670/how-netflix-built-a-house-of-cards- with-big-data.html Examples of Amazon’s own label brands https://www.businessinsider.com/amazon-owns-these-brands-list-2018-7?r=US&IR=T Amazon’s Tovess Gin https://www.thegrocer.co.uk/alcohol/amazon-makes-own-label-spirits-debut-with- tovess-gin/598706.article Amazon reportedly has tested putting it’s own brands higher up in search results https://www.pymnts.com/news/ecommerce/2019/amazon-tweaks-search-algorithm- to-elevate-products/ How Deliveroo is changing from a platform to an operator https://www.preoday.com/blog/deliveroo-changing-from-platform-to-operator/ Airbnb is creating apartments to rent out in Manhattan https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-04-29/airbnb-to-offer-200-new- luxury-suites-at-rockefeller-plaza?srnd=technology-vp Facebook’s dating platform https://about.fb.com/news/2019/09/facebook-dating/ Examples of Apple taking inspiration from apps in its app store https://www.theverge.com/2018/6/5/17428598/ios-12-apps-features-third-party- clones-bitmoji-houseparty How Google is providing more of its own data in search results https://www.consumeraffairs.com/news/google-takes-its-next-step-in-online-travel- planning-052019.html The impact on TripAdvisor https://feeditback.com/tripadvisor-usage-falls-over-past-year/ Amazon exclusives – Bic razors https://www.modernretail.co/platforms/bic-launched-a-new-razor-brand-exclusively- on-amazon/ Amazon exclusives – Tuft & Needle https://www.mattressclarity.com/news/tuft-needle-nod-exclusively-amazon/
  • 49. Appendix 1 49 Links & photo sources What’s Yours is Mine Ikea & rental https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-ikea-sustainability-cities/ikea-to-test-furniture-rental- in-30-countries-idUKKCN1RF1ST LEGO ‘is considering rental’ https://www.ft.com/content/b50bbbec-eda9-11e9-ad1e-4367d8281195 ThredUp stores up in Macy’s https://www.forbes.com/sites/retailwire/2019/08/21/with-thredup-macys-taps-into-a- hot-trend/ Invisible Money An explanation of how Klarna works https://www.klarna.com/uk/about-us/ Get paid early with Monzo https://monzo.com/features/get-paid-early/ Block payees with Barclays https://www.barclays.co.uk/help/mobile-banking/spending/merchant-control/ Examples of how Apple Card works https://www.apple.com/apple-card/ AliPay lets people use the app in Scandinavia https://www.helsinkibusinesshub.fi/alipay-epassi-lahitaksi-partner-finland-1st-chinese- travellers-cash-free-holiday/ Facebook Pay – a way of paying across Facebook, Instagram and WhatsApp https://www.theverge.com/2019/11/12/20961447/facebook-pay-whatsapp- instagram-messenger-features An example of a multi currency cards https://blockchainreporter.net/2019/11/11/crypto-news-wirex-introduces-visa-multi- currency-travelcard-targeting-borderless-payments/
  • 50. Appendix 1 50 Links & photo sources Life is Just a (Video) Game The median ages of sports fans https://www.ft.com/content/f2103e72-b38f-11e9-bec9-fdcab53d6959 F1 on Twitch https://www.autosport.com/f1/news/146720/f1-to-experiment-with-mexican-gp- stream-on-twitch NBA on Twitch https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-nba-twitch/nba-twitch-announce-deal-for- digital-rights-to-usa-basketball-idUSKCN1UW1EN Japan Skins – A head to head golf tournament https://www.todaysgolfer.co.uk/news-and-events/tour-news/2019/september/the- challenge-japan-skins-match-between-rory-mcilroy-tiger-woods-hideki-matsuayam- and-jason-day-confirmed-/ Music in video games is responsible for increasing artists popularity https://www.dreamteamfc.com/c/gaming/137316/fifa-18-spoke-team-behind- games-music-soundtrack/ Marshmallo’s concert in Fortnite https://www.theverge.com/2019/2/21/18234980/fortnite-marshmello-concert-viewer- numbers An example of a kit deal for an eSports team https://www.theverge.com/2019/2/28/18244435/nike-league-of-legends-jersey- sneakers-lpl-china An example of an immersive gaming experience https://vrscout.com/news/void-jumanji-location-based-vr-announced/
  • 51. Appendix 1 51 Links & photo sources Play it Your Way All about Black Mirror’s Bandersnatch film https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/live-feed/black-mirror-bandersnatch-endings- explained-1171556 Porsche’s event on Twitter https://www.mobilemarketer.com/news/porsche-test-drives-branded-games-on- amazons-twitch/562102/ Eko’s short interactive brand films https://company.eko.com/ Cookie Cutters There is lots of background on cookies in this iProspect report https://www.iprospect.com/en/nl/insights/whitepapers/happy-25-birthday-cookie/ Dark(er) Social Instagram’s close friends feature – launched in late 2018 https://instagram-press.com/blog/2018/11/30/share-with-your-close-friends-on- instagram-stories/ How Coleen Rooney used this feature https://www.independent.co.uk/news/media/coleen-rooney-rebekah-vardy-twitter- instagram-stories-sun-wayne-jamie-wag-a9148631.html Facebook’s increased focus on groups https://www.facebook.com/notes/mark-zuckerberg/a-privacy-focused-vision-for- social-networking/10156700570096634/ The Peloton members group https://www.facebook.com/groups/pelotonmembers/?tn-str=*F All about Thingtesting, and how it monetises https://www.producthunt.com/stories/from-the-thingtester-how-to-build-an-entire- business-on-instagram
  • 52. Appendix 1 52 Links & photo sources Post-Production Advertising Mirriad https://www.mirriad.com/ Supponor https://www.supponor.com/ Bidstack https://www.bidstack.com/ The Age of Addressable TV 70% of TV shipments are now connected TVs https://www.digitaltveurope.com/2018/07/18/ihs-markit-70-of-tv-shipments-to-be- smart-sets-in-2018/ eMarketer’s ad spend stats https://www.fiercevideo.com/video/connected-tv-ad-spending-to-top-10b-by-2021- emarketer-says Roku’s estimate of the amount of connected TV watched, vs ad budgets for connected TV https://www.fool.com/investing/2019/11/09/roku-is-making-2258-per-user-and-this-is- just-the.aspx YouTube’s new connected TV ad formats https://www.thedrum.com/news/2019/09/18/youtube-bringing-masthead-ads- connected-tv-its-fastest-growing-medium Examples of targeting options available on Sky AdSmart https://www.adsmartfromsky.co.uk/audience/ Info on Sky AdSmart, including number of brands who advertise https://www.skymedia.co.uk/news/sky-media-reveals-power-of-addressable-tv-in- five-year-study-amid-successful-expansion-into-virgin-homes/
  • 53. Contextual Commerce The year saw many examples of brands selling via social media and video. For some major brands in the US, the biggest event was the introduction of Instagram Checkout in March. While this still has not been rolled out more widely than its original list of brands, or outside of the US, reportedly brands are doing well with the feature (and adidas has reported a sales boost because of it). News of brands selling via social channels seems to happen every week, including Kroger on TikTok, while Facebook has introduced shoppable ads, and Google is making YouTube more shoppable. It’s not as easy or as prevalent as in China yet, but we’re getting there. Appendix 2 53 DID WE GET IT RIGHT? Yes, though just via Social and Video 2019 TRENDS REVISITED
  • 54. Experiential eCommerce This year, more brands and influencers are experimenting with selling through live streams. Kim Kardashian took part in a live stream for China’s Singles Day in November (to 12m viewers), while in the West Amazon co-opted Twitch into its own Prime Day for the first time. Twitch streamers got to choose their favourite Prime Day bargains, and sell them in a 2-day event, appropriately called Twitch Sells Out. Amazon is also testing its live shopping streams, at Amazon.com/live, but it still feels like a trial (for example Oprah did not appear for the 1-hour stream devoted to her Christmas picks). We’ve also seen more shoppable augmented reality, from brands like Nike, Ikea, and Kohls, and in South Korea a new 5G service lets people use their phones to see detailed 360° versions of products being shown on shopping channels. Appendix 2 54 DID WE GET IT RIGHT? Yes 2019 TRENDS REVISITED
  • 55. Games in Messaging Instagram got rid of one of the main ‘by invitation’ mechanisms late in 2018 when they made it possible to share with close friends, rather than create ‘finsta’ accounts. Some are using this feature to monetise their social media followings, including Jenny Gyllander’s ThingTesting Instagram page, where she reviews new direct-to-consumer products. She charges to be part of her close friends' network, with advance notice of new products and invites to events. There are now 600 people in her waiting list to join. We also saw other attempts to let superfans be in the know, including Samsung partnering with restaurants to create secret menus on a page that only Samsung devices could visit. Conservatory, a store in New York, requires people to visit in person to get an access code so that they can shop online. Appendix 2 55 2019 TRENDS REVISITED DID WE GET IT RIGHT? Absolutely
  • 56. Life as a Service (LaaS) Subscriptions were huge in 2019. Lots of new categories and players tried a subscription model, making commerce more of a service, including Fender guitars (pay to get regular new lessons for songs to play), A barbershop (a regular haircut and shave with drink included), and the Camp toy shop (shop out of standard times, and use the store act as a creche). Meanwhile, Apple moved more into services, with bundled access to games (Arcade) and TV (TV+), in addition to its Apple music offering. Appendix 2 56 DID WE GET IT RIGHT? Absolutely 2019 TRENDS REVISITED
  • 57. ‘By Invitation’ Instagram got rid of one of the main ‘by invitation’ mechanisms late in 2018 when they made it possible to share with close friends, rather than create ‘finsta’ accounts. Some are using this feature to monetise their social media followings, including Jenny Gyllander’s ThingTesting Instagram page, where she reviews new direct-to-consumer products. She charges to be part of her close friends' network, with advance notice of new products and invites to events. There are now 600 people in her waiting list to join. We also saw other attempts to let superfans be in the know, including Samsung partnering with restaurants to create secret menus on a page that only Samsung devices could visit. Conservatory, a store in New York, requires people to visit in person to get an access code so that they can shop online. Appendix 2 57 DID WE GET IT RIGHT? Absolutely 2019 TRENDS REVISITED
  • 58. Smart Out Of Home We saw lots of brands using the new digital capabilities of out of home. HBO ran a very ambitious campaign for Watchmen, featuring countdown clocks, and augmented reality integration. Pokemon Go arranged to digital posters to all ‘crash’ and get taken over by Pokemon to publicise a big event in New York. Unlike in 2018, one of the Cannes Outdoor winners for 2019 included smart targeting, but we expect the capabilities to feed into the creativity next year. Out Of Home also proved a perfect medium for very agile brands like GSK’s Piri allergy products, who were able to include triggers like pollen counts in their targeting. Appendix 2 58 DID WE GET IT RIGHT? Partly 2019 TRENDS REVISITED
  • 59. Design From Data Data and measurement are being used to design products and services more than ever. This year one of our trends is the rise of ‘Own Label’ – platforms like Netflix, Airbnb, and Deliveroo taking the data they have and cutting out the middle man by creating products for themselves based on what they know is likely to work. We are also seeing the rise of new measurement companies, including Spate, which helps beauty brands make decisions by telling them what people are searching for within the category, including new colours and ingredients. Appendix 2 59 DID WE GET IT RIGHT? Yes 2019 TRENDS REVISITED
  • 60. Targeting Post-GDPR GDPR has ushered in a new way of thinking, with some partners leaving the European market altogether and privacy concerns being top of mind in agencies and publishers GDPR is continuing to have an impact on marketers, and its influence is spreading beyond Europe, for example, in the California Consumer Privacy Act, which comes into force on 1st January 2020. It can be argued that GDPR has had a good effect on targeting, as it has meant that advertisers have had to clean up their data and that as a result, data is much higher quality. But targeting now has a new threat – the fact that two major browsers, Apple’s Safari, and Firefox, are more actively blocking cookies. We see more contextual advertising as a result of GDPR, but we also see more advertising on signed in platforms. For example, Spotify’s new focus on podcasts means that it can advertise to signed-in users, targeting both on the user’s ID, but also the context of the podcast itself. Appendix 2 60 DID WE GET IT RIGHT? Partly 2019 TRENDS REVISITED
  • 61. Expanding Connectivity 5G has arrived and is already seeing take-up. In South Korea, there were 3.5m 5G accounts by the end of September, and it looks likely that there will be more than 5m by the end of the year. We are monitoring for new services coming out of the fast connectivity, and we have already seen an augmented reality app for TV shopping. In the US many sports stadiums are being connected to 5G so that fans can enjoy extra features in their seats. We also see lots of plans to help global connectivity through satellites, with Elon Musk’s SpaceX planning more than 40,000 to boost global broadband. Connectivity has never been more important. Appendix 2 61 DID WE GET IT RIGHT? Yes 2019 TRENDS REVISITED
  • 62. Digital Detox Digital Detox was the only one of the ten trends that did not happen. We have not seen a decline in usage of digital media, and it seems that the lure of content is just too great. However, we have seen initiatives to reduce the addictive nature of some of the features of social media, most notably Instagram making the number of ‘Likes’ that a post gets invisible to users, to reduce the pressure that some feel. While we may not have many detoxing, this feels like a positive step. Appendix 2 62 DID WE GET IT RIGHT? Not really 2019 TRENDS REVISITED