n-tech Research Report
Smart Mirrors Technologies and Markets,
2015-2022
Issue date: April 2015
Code: Nano-823
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Chapter One: Introduction
1.1 Background to this Report
A "smart mirror" is a mirror with added features and functionalities, with the purpose of
incorporating a capability that would otherwise be done manually or in some system other
than the mirror. For example, a self-dimming mirror automatically adjusts to ambient light
conditions, primarily for safety reasons but also for some measure of user comfort.
Our definition of smart technologies as relevant to mirrors encompasses any kind of mirror
that is made intelligent by adding such functionalities in one of two ways: (1) adding
layer(s) of smart coatings, or (2) embedding electronics into the mirror
Smart coated mirrors include the following functionalities, in any number of combinations:
• Self-dimming: These coatings already has found an established market in
automotive mirrors but not really anywhere else. Primarily this technology
is electrochromic, although other types of self-dimming technologies are
being explored mainly for markets outside of mirrors
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• Self-cleaning: These are hydrophobic and hydrophilic coatings, which use
water (either rinse or rain) to repel or otherwise channel away dirt, dust,
inorganic material, etc. from the mirror surface
• Self-healing: Several potential systems could apply here, from viscoelastic
reflow and microencapsulants to more advanced vascular-based systems.
There are challenges in such coatings regarding their complexity of design
and implementation, balancing seemingly contradictory properties: strong
enough to encapsulate but fragile enough to break, fast-dispersing but also
fast-polymerizing
Electronics that can be embedded into mirrors include sensors, displays, cameras, and
touch technology, with intelligence enabled through software, algorithms and processing.
1.1.3 Making Mirrors Smart: First Coatings, Now Electronics
Two years have passed since n-tech Research's last report on "smart mirror" products
and the technologies behind them, and we seem to be on track with most of what we had
predicted:
• Embedded electronics is critical to more widespread adoption across
various end markets (consumer/home, retail, healthcare), and primarily as
an information-delivery mechanism. The flip side of this: smart mirrors as
defined by responsive coatings (self-dimming, self-cleaning, self-repairing)
is less strongly driving future adoption, largely because their mainstay (self-
dimming mirrors for automotive) has been a long mature market, with
seemingly less velocity for innovation.
• Multiple functionality within a smart mirror has become more in demand,
from self-dimming mirrors made with additional self-cleaning or repair
capabilities, to such mirrors adding electronics capabilities (lights, displays,
etc.), or even mirrors entirely based on additional electronics functionality.
Self-dimming has long been embraced in vehicle mirrors, although other types of smart
capabilities such as self-cleaning and self-healing have yet to really prove their worth.
What has become even more true today is that imbuing the humble mirror with additional
smart functionalities is increasingly a conversation about what types of electronics can be
embedded within it, often in concert: cameras, displays, touch and gesture recognition,
lights, various types of sensors, and some level of processing and algorithms behind the
scenes to stitch everything together.
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Exhibit E-1 outlines the basic market drivers for "smart mirrors," divided into four general
categories: safety, comfort/convenience, design/style, and advertising/marketing.
Source: n-tech Research
Safety Comfort and Convenience Design/Style Advertising and Marketing
Self-cleaning
Cleaner exterior mirrors in
automotive applications
lead to safer driving. Could
enhance safety in some
medical settings if they
reduce the spread of
disease through reduced
“touching” of mirrors.
Clear exterior views
enhance the driving
experience. In humid
environments (e.g., home
bathrooms) could reduce
the need for frequent
cleanup.
Self-healing
Could marginally improve
safety in most
applications; greatest
advantage is in automotive
smart mirrors, and
potentially outdoor/public
spaces
Unclear how self-
repairing capability
substantially improves
comfort or convenience.
Embedded
electronic
devices
Heads-up display of
critical and/or useful
information in automotive
applications keeps
attention on the road. Rear-
and forward-driving
assistance improves road
safety. Embedded
electronics can also
improve patient
compliance through
delivery of instructions,
reminders, etc.
Heads-up display comfort
in driver’s eye line.
Convenience of
information delivery in
bedroom, bathroom, and
household mirrors.
Multifunctional rear-view
mirrors contribute to
overall vehicle design.
Similarly, electronically-
enabled mirrors can be a
luxury item in a home or
business; TVs that double
as mirrors enhance
interior design.
Ability to place dynamic
and customized
advertising content
through the use of
electronic displays in non-
automotive applications is
a key driver for growth.
Exhibit E-1: Drivers for Growth of Smart Mirrors
Smart
Technology
Drivers
Self-
dimming
Reduces glare and improves driver response time in
automotive applications, thereby improving both safety
and comfort/convenience.
Unclear how safety or comfort is significantly
enhanced in self-dimming smart mirrors in non-
automotive applications.
Desirable add-on for
automobiles, which are
often differentiated by non-
standard options, and self-
dimming could enhance
design in consumer or
household applications.
Unclear how self-dimming,
self-cleaning or self-
repairing significantly
enhances advertising
content or marketing
efforts. (Self-dimming
feature may add to ability
to attract potential
customer and improve
recall; self-repair and self-
cleaning may marginally
improve cost-effectiveness
of ad placement.)
Self-cleaning and self-
repairing capability could
be considered a “cool” or
luxury addition to any
application and thus might
be considered a style
feature, even if is primarily
introduced for its
functionality.
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1.1.2 Growth in End Markets: Testing Time
For end markets, smart mirrors are pushing further into the spotlight. Automotive is
arguably the only commercial success story for smart mirrors with commonplace use of
self-dimming mirrors. Increasingly, the core safety function of a reflective mirror (both
internal and external) is being forced to accommodate higher-tech capabilities such as
cameras and displays, which is changing the game for suppliers.
Gentex, which supplies the vast majority of self-dimming automotive mirrors, does see
some volume growth opportunities for that type of product, which is to say simply getting
them into more vehicles than before (currently about 25% of all models for interior mirrors
and ~7% for external side mirrors).
But very clearly the future for smart mirrors seems to be less about such responsive
coatings, and more about electronics-enabled capabilities: sensing, vision/cameras,
displays, touch, aggregating and presenting various information in real-time to the user.
We also are seeing a recent wave of activity in smart mirrors in retail and consumer
environments, with some very large brand names now implementing pilot programs.
Alongside them are some equally major technology giants—including one that's
attempting to mesh the worlds of e-commerce and retail.
1.1.3 What's Next for Smart Mirrors: Time to Redefine?
Perhaps the most important trend we're seeing in smart mirrors is in how the concept of
a smart mirror is being brought to market, where the aforementioned combinations of
interconnected and networked electronics are in the spotlight, arguably more than the
mirror itself.
The latest iterations of smart mirrors suggest that future smart mirrors in many
applications might be true mirrors in name only—just another iteration of computers and
displays, with new scale and capabilities. In fact, the future of many applications might be
evolving where such a mirror is rather an exercise in semantics.
This distinction is illustrated by one vendor's use of the term digital mirror as a
differentiation to what it's doing, both displays with cameras as well as double-sided mirror
with a display.
This suggests the future of smart mirrors might actually be souped-up large computer
displays, perhaps with an added reflective surface, in both ways delivering the function of
a mirror, which is to say presenting the user a view of his/her surrounding environment.
That mirroring function simply becomes one feature among the typical computing-enabled
bells and whistles. Indeed, one accepted definition of a "smart mirror" is simply a mirrored
TV screen.
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This would suggest opportunities rest more with major electronics companies, rather than
glass suppliers. And indeed, seeing names like Intel, Panasonic, Sony, Toshiba, LG, etc.
coming out with prototypes of smart mirrors, and/or supporting smart mirror products from
others, reinforces this thinking that the future for smart mirrors in many applications may
be fulfilled by large interactive computer displays.
1.1.4 Evolving Market, Evolving Landscape
And yet this space still bears close watching. In automotive, it is unclear how things will
shake out: will rearview mirrors with embedded displays, and/or bimodal operation, be
the preferred "smart mirror" product, largely benefiting Gentex? Or will in-console displays
assume this function? And what is the real takeoff for other "smart" mirror adoption, such
as self-dimming, turn signals, and other features into external mirrors?
In the other area where smart mirror activity seems to be heating up, retail shopping is
undeniably taking a step forward with digital initiatives, ever seeking ways to not only
improve the shopping experience, but also to absorb more actionable information about
shoppers and ultimately convert them to paying customers.
At some point, there is a line between willing participation in an immersive shopping
experience, and crossing over into invasive information gathering.
And while we are encouraged by the level of big-name brand participation in these new
smart mirror roll-outs—electronics heavyweights from Intel to Panasonic, and retail
brands from Nordstrom to Bloomingdale's and, reportedly, even Wal-Mart—we must also
acknowledge that pilot programs are by definition an experimentation, and not a promise
of future expansion.
We note that one company we profiled in our 2013 report, Mirrus, received attention for
its deployment of 150 smart mirrors in O'Hare airport bathrooms, as well as a number of
collegiate and professional sports stadiums—but they appear to have disappeared just
two years later.
In summary, n-tech Research believes we are entering a critical period for smart mirrors,
over the next year or two. We are now witnessing the emergence of several high-profile
retail applications, which may—or, equally importantly, may not—spur a lot more activity
in this sector.
We are also at a crossroads in the automotive market for what the future of "smart" mirrors
will be, as suppliers adjust their products and pipelines to accommodate more cameras
and other sensor-enabled functions. At the head of this spear, there is likely to be some
divergence as to what a "smart mirror" even is, and which companies will stand ready to
deliver what individual markets require.
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1.2 Objective and Scope of this Report
In this report n-tech Research updates our evaluation of the various types of technologies
that companies are using to make mirrors "smart," while noting how different sectors may
have different value propositions.
We also explore the different market drivers for "smart mirrors" in what we define as the
four key end-market sectors: automotive, home/consumer, retail/commercial, and
medical/healthcare. We provide eight-year forecasts for the various "smart" technologies
in each sector, both in volumes and in value terms.
This report, and the forecasts included, are intended to be international in scope, and we
have not been geographically selective in the firms covered herein or interviewed to
collect information. Where markets and opportunities are oriented to any particular region,
we note this.
1.3 Methodology of this Report
The information and opinions here are mainly derived from primary sources, including our
ongoing program of interviews with business development managers and technologists
in various related areas: glass, displays, sensors, etc.
We also have relied upon our previous reports on smart mirrors and related offerings,
from automotive glass and architectural glass to smart coatings and surfaces, and
transparent displays. Where information has been used in an earlier report it has been
reinvestigated, reanalyzed, and reconsidered in light of current developments and
updated accordingly.
We also have relied upon our own extensive research of secondary sources including:
technical literature, relevant company web sites, trade journals, government resources,
and various collateral items from trade shows and conferences.
1.3.1 Forecasting Methodology
n-tech Research has covered smart glass across various sectors for more than seven
years, through which we have acquired a deep understanding of the dynamics of the
various markets and technologies. Our basic approach to forecasting is to identify and
quantify underlying addressable markets and assess the likely penetration rates of
various smart mirror technologies.
It is important to explain that in our forecasts we do not arrive at volume totals. This is
because there is no one standard "smart mirror" product; in fact, a smart mirror in any of
the markets we discuss can, and usually will, incorporate multiple technologies to deliver
multiple functions.
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For example, an automotive smart mirror likely starts with familiar self-dimming capability
and embedded sensor, but newer versions likely will incorporate a display of some kind,
either in a portion of the mirror or entirely spanning the whole thing.
Sensors in retail environments may include a vast array of embedded electronics—
display, cameras, touch and/or gesture interface, sensors, RFID, wireless networking. In
fact, this setup likely changes even in the same smart mirror deployment—a product out
on the show floor will have cameras, but the smart mirror in the fitting room won't, for
example.
The upshot of that is that different components carry different price points, and various
combinations of them will not only result in quite different system costs, but also adding
them all up would dramatically inflate the actual market size.
1.3.2 Economic Assumptions
Given the usage cases we analyze for smart mirrors, we conclude that nearly all of them,
in the end, are more or less dependent upon consumer spending trends, and thus
macroeconomic trends would come into play.
By common consent the automotive industry is especially vulnerable to fluctuations
of the economy. In a weak economy, luxury vehicles are especially vulnerable,
which is precisely where most of the smart mirrors have found inroads, although in
recent years they have proliferated into more mainstream cars.
However, it is important to recognize that no matter what the world economy looks
like, the automotive industry will remain very competitive and the car makers
always will seek new technologies that can attract buyers based on the critical
factors of cost, safety, comfort and style. Another macroeconomic trend worth
noting is falling oil prices, which directly impacts gasoline prices, and could
positively impact car sales.
For retail applications, which is where we already had predicted the most growth,
macroeconomic trends greatly impact consumer spending. At the same time, retail
companies are especially keen to explore anything that helps them convert more
shoppers, and research suggests a more digital-friendly experience greatly
improves that likelihood.
Household use of smart mirrors (bathroom, kitchen, etc.), especially those
incorporating electronics, are rather a more luxury consumer item. Even in retail
shopping where we are seeing some newer pilot implementations at large brands,
these are generally higher-end stores (Neiman Marcus, Nordstrom, Rebecca
Minkoff), at least for now.
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The one sector that might be less affected by consumer purchasing trends would
be healthcare and medical applications. Generally speaking, applications in these
fields tend to be more lenient with pricing, but also more demanding in terms of
performance and reliability—human well-being and lives may literally depend upon
accuracy and reliability of information delivery. This might be less dramatically
relevant for a smart mirror, but it's a factor nonetheless.
The forecasts in this report are not based specifically on economic growth projections,
but we implicitly assume modest growth throughout all the regions under consideration.
Of course "modest" means different things to different regions: in the U.S. for example
this is of 2% GDP growth, whereas China is continuing to manipulate their number to
around 7%, and Europe is lucky to be north of 1%. The IMF's latest World Economic
Outlook projects global economic growth in 2015 at 3.5% and 3.7% in 2016, which are
slight downward revisions from its October outlooks, reflecting changes largely in Asia
and large oil exporting countries.
1.4 Plan of this Report
In Chapter Two we examine all of the different technologies that can make a mirror
"smart," from functional coatings to embedded electronics, and in various combinations.
In Chapters Three through Six, we review the various markets in which smart mirrors are
finding adoption, or are likely to emerge within the scope of our eight-year forecasting
outlook. These include the evolution of smart mirrors in automotive, retail and advertising,
home/consumer use, and medical/healthcare applications. It should be noted that some
of these usage cases overlap; a smart bathroom mirror, for example, could also sense
and process health information about the user, with actions ranging from simply
displaying relevant information to facilitating user action, even notifying a doctor.
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