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Key Climate Challenges for Coastal Zones
Lessons from New York City and Hurricane Sandy

Cynthia Rosenzweig
NASA GISS/ Columbia University
National Institute for Coastal and Harbor Infrastructure Symposium
Boston, Massachusetts
November 12, 2013

1
Outline
• Climate Change Challenges in Coastal Zones

• New York City Adaptation Process

• Responding to Hurricane Sandy

• Sandy as Tipping Point

2
Coastal Zones

Key Findings from Draft National Climate Assessment
• Coastal zones are increasingly vulnerable to
higher sea levels and storm surges, inland
flooding, and other climate-related changes.
• Climate change increases exposure of
important assets, such as ports, tourism and
fishing sites, in already-vulnerable coastal
locations, threatening to disrupt economic
activity beyond the coast and incurring
significant costs for protecting or moving
them.
• Socioeconomic disparities create uneven
exposures and sensitivities to coastal risks
and limit adaptation options for some coastal
communities, resulting in the displacement
of the most vulnerable from coastal areas.

From 2013 National Climate Assessment, Draft
Chapter 25, USGCRP, 2013v

Challenges of Multiple Jurisdictions
From 2013 National Climate Assessment, Draft
Chapter 25, USGCRP, 2013v

3
Coastal Zones
Key Climate Impacts in the Northeast
High water levels, strong winds, and heavy
precipitation from coastal storms already impact
coastal areas.

Warming ocean waters raise sea level through
thermal expansion which will result in more
frequent and extensive coastal flooding and
stronger coastal storms.
• Barrier islands are being significantly altered due to
erosion, overwash and new inlets created by strong
coastal storms
• Sea level rise will increase the risks to populations
in low-lying coastal areas and will lead to
permanent inundation of low-lying areas, more
frequent storm surge flooding and increased beach
erosion
• Loss of coastal wetlands and salt marshes will
reduce species diversity

ClimAID, 2011
4

ClimAID, 2011
New York City Adaptation Process
Mayor

Leadership

Implementation
City Agencies
- Regional Authorities

City-wide Sustainability
Office OLTPS

- Private Stakeholders

Coordination
University scholars and
private sector experts

E
Stakeholder
Task Force
CCATF

T

Expert Panel
NPCC

- Social, biological, and
physical scientists

P
Integration across

C

- Legal and insurance
experts
- Risk management
professionals

W
W

Sector-specific Working Groups
- Energy (E)

- Transportation (T)

- Policy (P) - Water & Waste (WW)

Climate Science

- Communications (C)

Source: NPCC, 2010
5
First New York City Panel on Climate Change
Mayor Bloomberg convened the First New York City Panel on Climate
Change (NPCC1) in 2008. The NPCC – leading climate and social
scientists and risk management experts – worked to identify future
climate risks facing New York City
•

In 2009, the Panel produced a set of climate
projections specific to New York City region

•

Full report published by New York Academy of
Sciences in 2010

•

New York City Codified NPCC in August 2012
legislation, requiring regular climate science
updates

6
Flexible Adaptation Pathways
Climate change adaptation as a risk management issue
Flexible Adaptation Pathways as the response

Source: NPCC, 2010

7
Steps – Assess and Implement
1.

Identify current and future climate hazards

2.

Conduct inventory of infrastructure and
assets and begin to identify vulnerabilities

3.

Characterize risk

4.

Develop initial list of strategies

5.

Identify opportunities for coordination

6.

Prioritize strategies

7.

Prepare and implement Resilience Plans

8.

Monitor and reassess

NPCC, 2010

8
Framing Adaptation
• Reduce the level of physical, social,
and economic impacts of climate
• Take advantage of new
opportunities
Types
• Management/operations
• Infrastructure – physical
components of each sector
• Policy
Administrative Groups
• Private vs. public
organizations
• Local/municipal, county,
state, national
ClimAID, 2011

Level of Efforts
•
Incremental action
•
Large-scale shifts
Timing
•
Short term <5 yrs; medium term
5-15 yrs; long term >15 years
•
Abrupt Changes - tipping
points/policy triggers

9
Pre-Hurricane Sandy Adaptation Actions
• Actions already underway in New
York City to mitigate the impacts
of climate risks
– Planting over 300 Greenstreets,
vegetation that absorbs stormwater
– Securing citywide high-resolution
LiDAR elevation data, which helps to
identify the most vulnerable area
– Incorporating sea level rise into the
City's Comprehensive Waterfront
Plan
– NYC Office of Emergency
Management launched enhanced
emergency response and
preparedness programs

• Post Sandy intensifying efforts
NPCC, 2013

10
Hurricane Sandy
• Storm timing coincided almost exactly with
astronomically high, high tide
• Tropical-storm-force winds extended 1,000 miles
from end to end, making it more than three times
the size of Hurricane Katrina

• Storm surge combined with high tide created a
“storm tide” of over 14 feet above Mean Lower Low
Water at the Battery

• Unusual storm track, Sandy turned sharply west
just as it was reaching another peak of intensity
SIRR, 2013
CCSR, 2013

Storm Forecast Well In Advance

11
Hurricane Sandy
Links to Climate Change Science
Sea level rise at Battery, NYC 1900-2009, NPCC

• It is not possible to attribute any single
extreme event such as Hurricane Sandy to
climate change
• Sea level rise already occurring in the New York
City area (~1.1 feet since 1900), in part related
to climate change, increased the extent and
magnitude of coastal flooding during the storm

North Atlantic SSTs and Hurricane Power Dissipation Index 1950-2005, Emanuel

• Intensity of severe hurricanes appears to be on
rise and may increase in future***
• Melting sea-ice may be changing pattern of jet
stream, making westward-turning storm tracks
more likely***

***Areas of active research
Sources: CCSR, 2013

Median Minimum Sea Ice Extent 1979-2009

12
Hurricane Sandy
Immediate Preparations

LIPA

New York City issued mandatory evacuation
of Zone A on October 28, 2012

Out-of-state utility crews brought in
before the storm
Evacuation – Not complete
43 people died in NYC 80%
from drowning
Utilities – Not prepared
4 million without power in the
tri-state region
MTA/DOT – Major flooding
7 subway lines under East River,
3 tunnels closed

MTA closed down
operations, moved rolling
stock, and boarded and
placed sandbags at
subway entrances to
protect against flooding
SIRR, 2013

MTA

13
Climate Change and
a Global City 2001
The Potential
Consequences of
Climate Variability and
Change
Metro East Coast (MEC) July
2001

Hurricane Sandy
Forecasting the Impacts
South Ferry Subway Station

Interdependent Critical
Infrastructure Systems
and
Vulnerable Communities
Beach erosion and boardwalk
damage in the Rockaways

Spencer Platt Getty Images

Extensive power outages

Hard-hit
areas

Sources: CCSR, 2013,
MTA, 2012

Many impacts forecast well in advance

14
Hurricane Sandy
Unforeseen Impacts
• Hospital Evacuations
– Flooding and power outages forced the
evacuation of 6,500 people from nursing
homes and hospitals

• Gas Shortages
– Severe breakdowns in the supply chain
serving New York caused by storm
damage to coastal infrastructure led to
fuel shortages that lasted weeks

• Fires
– Over 100 homes and businesses were
destroyed by fire, often electrical in
nature, sparked by the interaction of
electricity and seawater. Narrowly flooded
streets hampered emergency response.

SIRR, 2013

15
Second New York City Panel on Climate Change
After Hurricane Sandy, Mayor Bloomberg re-convened the NPCC in
January to provide updated climate risk information for the Special
Initiative for Rebuilding and Resiliency (SIRR)
•

The 2013 NPCC Climate Risk
Information Report (CRI) provides new
climate change projections and future
coastal flood risk maps for New York
City

•

Both “A Stronger, More Resilient New
York” and CRI reports released on June
11, 2013

16
Consortium for Climate Risk in the Urban Northeast
• CCRUN conducts stakeholder-driven research that reduces climate-related
vulnerability and advances opportunities for adaptation in the urban
Northeast
• CCRUN scientists lead the technical team that developed the projections for
the NPCC2 report

17
Key Findings for Future Projected Changes
Recently released (June 2013) climate change projections…

•

Illustrate a broad-based acceleration of climate change
in coming decades

•

Show significant climate risks for New York City,
especially heat waves, extreme precipitation events, and
coastal flooding

•

Valid for New York City and the metropolitan region

•

By 2050s, projected changes include
–
–
–
–

Annual temperature increase up to 6.5 F
Mean precipitation change between +5 and +10 percent
Sea level rise up to 31 inches
1-in-100 year flood may occur approximately 5 times more often
with the high-estimate for sea level rise
– More likely than not increase in the number of the most intense
hurricanes in the North Atlantic Basin.
– Unknown how the total number of tropical cyclones will change in
the North Atlantic Basin
NPCC, 2013

18
NYC SIRR Key Findings for Coastal Protection
•

Increase coastal edge elevations
– The City will increase the height of vulnerable coastal edges with bulkheads,
beach nourishment and other measures over time

•

Minimize upland wave zones
– The City will work to provide significant attenuation of waves—that is, to
knock down waves, or diminish their velocity—both off and onshore, before
they reach neighborhoods

•

Protect against storm surge
– The City will use flood protection structures, such as floodwalls, levees, and
local storm surge barriers built, where possible, to the 100-year flood
elevation with an additional allowance for future sea level rise

•

Improve coastal design
– The City will study how natural areas and open space can be used to protect
adjacent neighborhoods and maintain neighborhood quality of life, and will
work to manage its own waterfront assets more effectively

•

Governance
– Developing partnerships to improve permitting and study innovative coastal
protections.

SIRR, 2013

19
NYC SIRR Key Findings for Insurance
•

Strategy: Target affordability solutions to low-income policyholders
–

•

Strategy: Define resiliency standards for existing buildings
–

•

Measures that reduce a property’s risk of damage should be reflected
in a commensurate reduction in the cost of insurance

Strategy: Expand pricing options for policyholders
–

•

Sandy highlighted the limited information currently available on riskreduction techniques short of elevation, which is impractical,
financially infeasible or physically impossible for building types
common in New York City and other dense urban areas.

Strategy: Incorporate resiliency standards in insurance
underwriting
–

•

The combined impact of Biggert-Waters and the remapping of New
York City’s floodplain will result in significant increases in flood
insurance premiums, which many New Yorkers, especially the city’s
most vulnerable populations—including those with low, or on fixed,
incomes—will not be able to afford.

Flexible pricing options can encourage more people, especially those
not required to carry insurance, to purchase coverage that suits their
needs.

Strategy: Improve awareness and education about insurance
–

SIRR, 2013

Consumers must be aware of both their risks and the coverage their
insurance policies include or exclude.
20
Hurricane Sandy as Tipping Point
• Leadership in responding to climate change

• Municipal, state, and federal alignment
• Climate science in place and in time

Need for federal coordination that recognizes
local and state initiatives
21
References and Links
• Consortium for Climate Risk in the Urban Northeast (www.ccrun.org)
• NYSERDA ClimAID (www.nyserda.ny.gov/climaid)
• New York City Panel on Climate Change report available online at
(www.nyas.org)
• Urban Climate Change Research Network (www.uccrn.org)
• ClimateYou (www.climateyou.org)
– “Learn, Share, Act” about climate change

NPCC

22

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Nichi.11 12-13.nasa.cynthia rosenzweig

  • 1. Key Climate Challenges for Coastal Zones Lessons from New York City and Hurricane Sandy Cynthia Rosenzweig NASA GISS/ Columbia University National Institute for Coastal and Harbor Infrastructure Symposium Boston, Massachusetts November 12, 2013 1
  • 2. Outline • Climate Change Challenges in Coastal Zones • New York City Adaptation Process • Responding to Hurricane Sandy • Sandy as Tipping Point 2
  • 3. Coastal Zones Key Findings from Draft National Climate Assessment • Coastal zones are increasingly vulnerable to higher sea levels and storm surges, inland flooding, and other climate-related changes. • Climate change increases exposure of important assets, such as ports, tourism and fishing sites, in already-vulnerable coastal locations, threatening to disrupt economic activity beyond the coast and incurring significant costs for protecting or moving them. • Socioeconomic disparities create uneven exposures and sensitivities to coastal risks and limit adaptation options for some coastal communities, resulting in the displacement of the most vulnerable from coastal areas. From 2013 National Climate Assessment, Draft Chapter 25, USGCRP, 2013v Challenges of Multiple Jurisdictions From 2013 National Climate Assessment, Draft Chapter 25, USGCRP, 2013v 3
  • 4. Coastal Zones Key Climate Impacts in the Northeast High water levels, strong winds, and heavy precipitation from coastal storms already impact coastal areas. Warming ocean waters raise sea level through thermal expansion which will result in more frequent and extensive coastal flooding and stronger coastal storms. • Barrier islands are being significantly altered due to erosion, overwash and new inlets created by strong coastal storms • Sea level rise will increase the risks to populations in low-lying coastal areas and will lead to permanent inundation of low-lying areas, more frequent storm surge flooding and increased beach erosion • Loss of coastal wetlands and salt marshes will reduce species diversity ClimAID, 2011 4 ClimAID, 2011
  • 5. New York City Adaptation Process Mayor Leadership Implementation City Agencies - Regional Authorities City-wide Sustainability Office OLTPS - Private Stakeholders Coordination University scholars and private sector experts E Stakeholder Task Force CCATF T Expert Panel NPCC - Social, biological, and physical scientists P Integration across C - Legal and insurance experts - Risk management professionals W W Sector-specific Working Groups - Energy (E) - Transportation (T) - Policy (P) - Water & Waste (WW) Climate Science - Communications (C) Source: NPCC, 2010 5
  • 6. First New York City Panel on Climate Change Mayor Bloomberg convened the First New York City Panel on Climate Change (NPCC1) in 2008. The NPCC – leading climate and social scientists and risk management experts – worked to identify future climate risks facing New York City • In 2009, the Panel produced a set of climate projections specific to New York City region • Full report published by New York Academy of Sciences in 2010 • New York City Codified NPCC in August 2012 legislation, requiring regular climate science updates 6
  • 7. Flexible Adaptation Pathways Climate change adaptation as a risk management issue Flexible Adaptation Pathways as the response Source: NPCC, 2010 7
  • 8. Steps – Assess and Implement 1. Identify current and future climate hazards 2. Conduct inventory of infrastructure and assets and begin to identify vulnerabilities 3. Characterize risk 4. Develop initial list of strategies 5. Identify opportunities for coordination 6. Prioritize strategies 7. Prepare and implement Resilience Plans 8. Monitor and reassess NPCC, 2010 8
  • 9. Framing Adaptation • Reduce the level of physical, social, and economic impacts of climate • Take advantage of new opportunities Types • Management/operations • Infrastructure – physical components of each sector • Policy Administrative Groups • Private vs. public organizations • Local/municipal, county, state, national ClimAID, 2011 Level of Efforts • Incremental action • Large-scale shifts Timing • Short term <5 yrs; medium term 5-15 yrs; long term >15 years • Abrupt Changes - tipping points/policy triggers 9
  • 10. Pre-Hurricane Sandy Adaptation Actions • Actions already underway in New York City to mitigate the impacts of climate risks – Planting over 300 Greenstreets, vegetation that absorbs stormwater – Securing citywide high-resolution LiDAR elevation data, which helps to identify the most vulnerable area – Incorporating sea level rise into the City's Comprehensive Waterfront Plan – NYC Office of Emergency Management launched enhanced emergency response and preparedness programs • Post Sandy intensifying efforts NPCC, 2013 10
  • 11. Hurricane Sandy • Storm timing coincided almost exactly with astronomically high, high tide • Tropical-storm-force winds extended 1,000 miles from end to end, making it more than three times the size of Hurricane Katrina • Storm surge combined with high tide created a “storm tide” of over 14 feet above Mean Lower Low Water at the Battery • Unusual storm track, Sandy turned sharply west just as it was reaching another peak of intensity SIRR, 2013 CCSR, 2013 Storm Forecast Well In Advance 11
  • 12. Hurricane Sandy Links to Climate Change Science Sea level rise at Battery, NYC 1900-2009, NPCC • It is not possible to attribute any single extreme event such as Hurricane Sandy to climate change • Sea level rise already occurring in the New York City area (~1.1 feet since 1900), in part related to climate change, increased the extent and magnitude of coastal flooding during the storm North Atlantic SSTs and Hurricane Power Dissipation Index 1950-2005, Emanuel • Intensity of severe hurricanes appears to be on rise and may increase in future*** • Melting sea-ice may be changing pattern of jet stream, making westward-turning storm tracks more likely*** ***Areas of active research Sources: CCSR, 2013 Median Minimum Sea Ice Extent 1979-2009 12
  • 13. Hurricane Sandy Immediate Preparations LIPA New York City issued mandatory evacuation of Zone A on October 28, 2012 Out-of-state utility crews brought in before the storm Evacuation – Not complete 43 people died in NYC 80% from drowning Utilities – Not prepared 4 million without power in the tri-state region MTA/DOT – Major flooding 7 subway lines under East River, 3 tunnels closed MTA closed down operations, moved rolling stock, and boarded and placed sandbags at subway entrances to protect against flooding SIRR, 2013 MTA 13
  • 14. Climate Change and a Global City 2001 The Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change Metro East Coast (MEC) July 2001 Hurricane Sandy Forecasting the Impacts South Ferry Subway Station Interdependent Critical Infrastructure Systems and Vulnerable Communities Beach erosion and boardwalk damage in the Rockaways Spencer Platt Getty Images Extensive power outages Hard-hit areas Sources: CCSR, 2013, MTA, 2012 Many impacts forecast well in advance 14
  • 15. Hurricane Sandy Unforeseen Impacts • Hospital Evacuations – Flooding and power outages forced the evacuation of 6,500 people from nursing homes and hospitals • Gas Shortages – Severe breakdowns in the supply chain serving New York caused by storm damage to coastal infrastructure led to fuel shortages that lasted weeks • Fires – Over 100 homes and businesses were destroyed by fire, often electrical in nature, sparked by the interaction of electricity and seawater. Narrowly flooded streets hampered emergency response. SIRR, 2013 15
  • 16. Second New York City Panel on Climate Change After Hurricane Sandy, Mayor Bloomberg re-convened the NPCC in January to provide updated climate risk information for the Special Initiative for Rebuilding and Resiliency (SIRR) • The 2013 NPCC Climate Risk Information Report (CRI) provides new climate change projections and future coastal flood risk maps for New York City • Both “A Stronger, More Resilient New York” and CRI reports released on June 11, 2013 16
  • 17. Consortium for Climate Risk in the Urban Northeast • CCRUN conducts stakeholder-driven research that reduces climate-related vulnerability and advances opportunities for adaptation in the urban Northeast • CCRUN scientists lead the technical team that developed the projections for the NPCC2 report 17
  • 18. Key Findings for Future Projected Changes Recently released (June 2013) climate change projections… • Illustrate a broad-based acceleration of climate change in coming decades • Show significant climate risks for New York City, especially heat waves, extreme precipitation events, and coastal flooding • Valid for New York City and the metropolitan region • By 2050s, projected changes include – – – – Annual temperature increase up to 6.5 F Mean precipitation change between +5 and +10 percent Sea level rise up to 31 inches 1-in-100 year flood may occur approximately 5 times more often with the high-estimate for sea level rise – More likely than not increase in the number of the most intense hurricanes in the North Atlantic Basin. – Unknown how the total number of tropical cyclones will change in the North Atlantic Basin NPCC, 2013 18
  • 19. NYC SIRR Key Findings for Coastal Protection • Increase coastal edge elevations – The City will increase the height of vulnerable coastal edges with bulkheads, beach nourishment and other measures over time • Minimize upland wave zones – The City will work to provide significant attenuation of waves—that is, to knock down waves, or diminish their velocity—both off and onshore, before they reach neighborhoods • Protect against storm surge – The City will use flood protection structures, such as floodwalls, levees, and local storm surge barriers built, where possible, to the 100-year flood elevation with an additional allowance for future sea level rise • Improve coastal design – The City will study how natural areas and open space can be used to protect adjacent neighborhoods and maintain neighborhood quality of life, and will work to manage its own waterfront assets more effectively • Governance – Developing partnerships to improve permitting and study innovative coastal protections. SIRR, 2013 19
  • 20. NYC SIRR Key Findings for Insurance • Strategy: Target affordability solutions to low-income policyholders – • Strategy: Define resiliency standards for existing buildings – • Measures that reduce a property’s risk of damage should be reflected in a commensurate reduction in the cost of insurance Strategy: Expand pricing options for policyholders – • Sandy highlighted the limited information currently available on riskreduction techniques short of elevation, which is impractical, financially infeasible or physically impossible for building types common in New York City and other dense urban areas. Strategy: Incorporate resiliency standards in insurance underwriting – • The combined impact of Biggert-Waters and the remapping of New York City’s floodplain will result in significant increases in flood insurance premiums, which many New Yorkers, especially the city’s most vulnerable populations—including those with low, or on fixed, incomes—will not be able to afford. Flexible pricing options can encourage more people, especially those not required to carry insurance, to purchase coverage that suits their needs. Strategy: Improve awareness and education about insurance – SIRR, 2013 Consumers must be aware of both their risks and the coverage their insurance policies include or exclude. 20
  • 21. Hurricane Sandy as Tipping Point • Leadership in responding to climate change • Municipal, state, and federal alignment • Climate science in place and in time Need for federal coordination that recognizes local and state initiatives 21
  • 22. References and Links • Consortium for Climate Risk in the Urban Northeast (www.ccrun.org) • NYSERDA ClimAID (www.nyserda.ny.gov/climaid) • New York City Panel on Climate Change report available online at (www.nyas.org) • Urban Climate Change Research Network (www.uccrn.org) • ClimateYou (www.climateyou.org) – “Learn, Share, Act” about climate change NPCC 22