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Economic and Housing Market Outlook Lawrence Yun
National Existing Home Sales
  Recent Pending Home Sales Rising, but  Taking Longer to Close in Recent Months
Appraisal Issues from HVCC ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
National Existing Median Home Price  $
Serious Delinquency Rate (90+ days late or foreclosure) % Subprime ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],VA (purple) FHA Prime (green)
Mortgage Payment to Income to Buy a Median Price Home ( for those staying within budget … middle income person buying a middle priced home )  Stay within budget and monthly payment will be manageable ! %
Home Price to Income Ratio (Enticing for All-Cash Buyers)  Stay within Budget and all will be OK !
Home Price Up in Select Regions ,[object Object],%
Economy to Recover Slowly GDP annualized growth rate Source: BEA Latest Data Forecast
Job Changes in U.S. … Unemployment Rate to 10.5% Source: BLS, NAR forecast One-month payroll job changes in thousands
Federal Budget Deficit … Impact? Future Generation and Housing $ million Source: Congressional Budget Office Projections
Tax Revenue Collections (4-quarter change as of 2009 Q1) Tax Assessors and Appraisers  need to meet %
Housing Market Recovery Helps Reduce Budget Deficit ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Commercial Credit Freeze
Economic Outlook  2008 2009 2010 forecast 50 year average GDP 1.1% -2.9% 1.5% 3.3% CPI Inflation 3.8% -0.5% 2.1% 4.1% Unemployment Rate 5.8% 9.5% 10.0% 5.9% Mortgage Rate 6.1% 5.2% 5.8% 9.1% Existing Home Sales 4.9 m 4.9 m 5.2 m N/A 5.2 m in 2000 (before bubble)
Customer Satisfaction ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

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Lawrence Yun's Economic and Housing Market Update

  • 1. Economic and Housing Market Outlook Lawrence Yun
  • 3. Recent Pending Home Sales Rising, but Taking Longer to Close in Recent Months
  • 4.
  • 6.
  • 7. Mortgage Payment to Income to Buy a Median Price Home ( for those staying within budget … middle income person buying a middle priced home ) Stay within budget and monthly payment will be manageable ! %
  • 8. Home Price to Income Ratio (Enticing for All-Cash Buyers) Stay within Budget and all will be OK !
  • 9.
  • 10. Economy to Recover Slowly GDP annualized growth rate Source: BEA Latest Data Forecast
  • 11. Job Changes in U.S. … Unemployment Rate to 10.5% Source: BLS, NAR forecast One-month payroll job changes in thousands
  • 12. Federal Budget Deficit … Impact? Future Generation and Housing $ million Source: Congressional Budget Office Projections
  • 13. Tax Revenue Collections (4-quarter change as of 2009 Q1) Tax Assessors and Appraisers need to meet %
  • 14.
  • 16. Economic Outlook 2008 2009 2010 forecast 50 year average GDP 1.1% -2.9% 1.5% 3.3% CPI Inflation 3.8% -0.5% 2.1% 4.1% Unemployment Rate 5.8% 9.5% 10.0% 5.9% Mortgage Rate 6.1% 5.2% 5.8% 9.1% Existing Home Sales 4.9 m 4.9 m 5.2 m N/A 5.2 m in 2000 (before bubble)
  • 17.