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Economic indicators for week of 0706-0708

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The Research staff analyzes the week's key data releases and tell you what they mean for you and your business.

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Economic indicators for week of 0706-0708

  1. 1. Week of July 6 – July 8, 2010 NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® Research Produced by NAR Research
  2. 2. Weekly Economic Forecast <ul><li>NAR's monthly official forecast as of July 1 st </li></ul>Produced by NAR Research Indicator This Week Last Week GDP 2010 Q2: 3.1% 3.1% ↔ GDP 2010 Q3: 2.5% 2.5% ↔ GDP 2010 Q4: 2.6% 2.6% ↔ Unemployment rate by the year-end 2010: 9.8% 9.8% ↔ Average 30-year fixed mortgage rate by the year-end 2010: 5.1% 5.1% ↔
  3. 3. Tuesday, 07/06/10 <ul><li>The ISM non-manufacturing index declined more than expected to 53.8 in June. The index has been on the rise since November of 2009 and has maintained at 55.4 for the past three months. </li></ul><ul><li>Readings above 50 indicate more firms are expanding than contracting in the non-manufacturing sector. Although it does not influence the GDP as much as the Manufacturing Index does, it impacts the value of the US Dollar. It also suggests that the growth in services has been lagging when compared to manufacturing. </li></ul>Economic Updates Produced by NAR Research
  4. 4. Wednesday, 07/07/10 <ul><li>Mortgage Purchase applications declined a seasonally adjusted 2.0 percent for the week ending July 2 nd . In the first two months post tax-credit stimulus, purchase applications were down roughly 30 percent in May and an additional 15 percent in June. </li></ul><ul><li>Purchase applications are a good indicator of home sales, but do not take into consideration all-cash purchases which make up around a quarter of transactions according to the latest REALTORS® Confidence Index . </li></ul>Economic Updates Produced by NAR Research
  5. 5. Wednesday, 07/07/10 (Cont’d) <ul><li>Refinances continue to be strong increasing 9.2 percent from the previous week, according to the HUD-Treasury scorecard 6.1 million people refinanced between April 2009 and April 2010. The strong refinance market is largely due to historically low mortgage rates. </li></ul><ul><li>According to the survey, 30-year fixed mortgages were at 4.68 percent. Although many homeowners underwater are still unable to refinance. </li></ul>Economic Updates Produced by NAR Research
  6. 6. Thursday, 07/08/10 <ul><li>The number of people requesting unemployment checks declined by 21,000 in the past week, however, the current figure of 454,000 is still too high. It needs to fall to under 400,000 to make a dent in the unemployment rate. It is predicted to remain at about 10 percent through the end of the year. </li></ul><ul><li>The total number of people continuing to receive unemployment benefits fell by 224,000 to 4.4 million. </li></ul><ul><li>While this is the lowest level since November 2008 it does not mean those individuals found jobs, but largely reflects those who lost benefits after Congress failed to extend special unemployment payments instituted in the recession. </li></ul>Economic Updates Produced by NAR Research