Workshop on Instigators and Barriers to Renewable Energy Development and Deployment - 16 November 2015
Mr. Paul VAN DEN OOSERTKAMP
ECN
Global trends and developments in the renewable energy domain
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Mr. Paul VAN DEN OOSERTKAMP - Global trends and developments in the renewable energy domain (Netherlands)
1. www.ecn.nl
Global trends and
developments in the renewable
energy domain
Paul van den Oosterkamp
ECN Policy Studies
Morocco – ECN-IRESEN Workshop
Rabat, 16 November 2015
2. Content
• Global investment trends
• The link with the climate debate
• Key technology trends
• Key issues in strategy , implementation and planning
– Economics, generation of jobs
– Integration in the infrastructure
– Sustainability
• Concluding remarks
2
3. Content
• Global investment trends
• The link with the climate debate
• Key technology trends
• Key issues in strategy , implementation and planning
– Economics, generation of jobs
– Integration in the infrastructure
– Sustainability
• Concluding remarks
3
4. Investments trends (1):
• Are again picking up after some dips in 2012, 2013
Source: UNEP-BNEF, 2015
4
5. Investment trends (2)
• With increasing investment in developing countries
Source: UNEP-BNEF, 2015
5
6. Investment trends (3)
• And largest growth in new investment for solar and wind:
Source: UNEP-BNEF, 2015
6
9. Content
• Global investment trends
• The link with the climate debate
• Key technology trends
• Key issues in strategy , implementation and planning
– Economics, generation of jobs
– Integration in the infrastructure
– Sustainability
• Concluding remarks
9
10. The link with the climate
debate (1)
• The growth in investment in RES is a boost for investor confidence,
despite 50% drop in oil price
• Renewables play an increasing important role in developing a low carbon
economy and will be first choice for electricity in the long term (2050)
• But: renewables excl. large scale hydro are currently still only 9% of
global electricity generation
• So mobilization of financial markets will be crucial to support further
expanding growth of role for renewables
• And a price on carbon will help to establish a level playing field
• Shared vision : stay within 2 degrees C
10
11. The link with the Climate
debate (2)
• In Paris (COP 21), over 200 countries will endeavour to sign a binding
agreement on limiting carbon emisions
• IEA World Energy Outlook 2015 is moderately positive on Paris meeting :
Source : IEA
11
12. Content
• Global investment trends
• The link with the climate debate
• Key technology trends
• Key issues in strategy , implementation and planning
– Economics, generation of jobs
– Integration in the infrastructure
– Sustainability
• Concluding remarks
12
13. Key technology trends : solar PV
• Spectacular cost reduction for solar :
Source : Fraunhofer 13
18. Applications for lignin
bio-plastics
bio-char for soil improvement
base & specialty chemicals
bio-bitumen for green asphalt
bio-resins for wood-adhesives
bio-fuel for CHP O O
OH
fuel-additives
O O
OH
O
OH
O
OO
OO
OH
OH
OO
OHOH
O
OH
O
OH OH
OH
OH
OH
OH
Oguaiacols
syringols
alkylphenols
catechols
high volume - low value market 100 €/t
low volume - high value market 10.000 €/t
activated carbon, carbon-fibres
and carbon-black
monomeric phenols from the pyrolysis of lignin
oligomeric fragments
from the pyrolysis of lignin
additives for flooring material
18
19. Biomass and waste gasification
• Efficient power generation with gas
engine or turbine
• Production of BioMethane
• (Co-)production of chemicals
• Gas cleaning (incl. tar removal)
19
20. Key technology trends : wind
energy
Source : IRENA
Learning curve for onshore wind turbines :
20
21. Key technology trends (4)
So far; limited data
to calculate learning effect
Source : ECN
21
23. Cost of offshore wind
Source : IEA
Renewable energy
Mid Term Market
Report (2015)
Offshore wind investment costs are expected to decrease with the
deployment of larger power plants, increasing competition among turbine
manufacturers and providers of other supply chain elements, the
standardization of some foundation structures, and more efficient O&M. 23
24. Content
• Global investment trends
• The link with the climate debate
• Key technology trends
• Key issues in strategy , implementation and planning
– Economics, generation of jobs
– Integration in the infrastructure
– Sustainability
• Concluding remarks
24
25. Economics and renewables
• Balance of payment, saving on importing oil and fossil
fuels
• Generation of jobs
– For different parts of the value chain : R&D, manufacturing,
installation, service and maintenance
• Tailoring to the local situation
– Adapting of equipment
– Certification to account for local climate circumstances
25
26. Integrating the infrastructure :
Renewable energy and the grid
• “ Having a solar panel that isn’t connected to the grid is like
having a computer that’s not connected to the internet”
• With a higher % of renewables, the grid and support
technologies as electricity storage become critical, and smart
solutions become necessary
• DOE accounts costs of 2-3 $ct/kWh due to cope with
intermittency
26
27. Options for the grid variability
• Quick response sources : a fast ramp up of gas-fired power
plants, pumped hydro storage
• Demand response, making use of smart meters
• Market coupling
27
28. Sustainability
• Looking at the complete life cycle and value chain
• Considering (replacement of) scarce materials (solar
cells, drive train wind turbines) or materials with an
environmental concern (e.g. Cd)
• Improving air quality in cities
28
29. Content
• Global investment trends
• The link with the climate debate
• Key technology trends
• Key issues in strategy , implementation and planning
– Economics, generation of jobs
– Integration in the infrastructure
– Sustainability
• Concluding remarks
29
30. Concluding remarks
• Renewable energy has become main stream technology
• Further costs decline and technology learning will make
renewables a competitive option for power supply
• Arranging finance for the further deployment of renewables is
critical
• A smart system integration of renewables will become more
critical, but is affordable in terms of cost
• Renewable energy can give a boost to local economic activity
• Technology needs tailoring to local circumstances
• A solid cooperation between Morocco and Netherlands can
address most of these issues
30
31. City of the Sun, Municipality of Heerhugowaard, NL (photo courtesy Kuiper Compagnon
31
In this presentation, I will try to sketch the overall playing field of renewable energy, showing renewable energy has become main stream energy resource, with strong growth potential, driven by cost reduction and by environmental concerns (climate change, air quality).
This slide shows the outline of my presentation, I will try to sketch the larger context of this workshop
This slide shows the global new investment in renewable energy, in bio$, by sources of asset finance (financing for which assets are converted into working cash in exchange for a security interest in those assets). For example pension funds, traditional funds, crowd funding. The dips in investment were related to oversupply in PV market and to general economic malaise.
Read more: http://www.investorwords.com/284/asset_financing.html#ixzz3rApxuqBI
This figure shows that renewable energy technologies have spread from the early adopter countries in Europe and US to more and more parts of the world, also driven by lower manufacturing costs in some parts of the world. So in 2014, the split of investment was almost equal.
This slide shows that wind and solar are the technologies with the strongest growth, the other technologies do fall behind
Excluding hydropower (1,055 GW)
China and SE Asia show a much stronger growth than US, Europe and Middle East
A low oil price will also lower cost of natural gas, which is, in many countries, a source for generating electricity, and as such, in competition with solar and wind. However, gas will also remain an asset to manage the variability solar and wind.
WEO 2015 was released on November 10, 2015. COP is due in November- December, climate finance gap estimated at 5 trillion $
Solar PV has dramatically reduced in cost over the last years, partly a result of oversupply but more importantly, the learning effect of about 20 %, so for each doubling of installed capacity, we see a 20 % reduction in cost. Still, in long term, a further rise in efficiency expected (e.g. tandem cells : Si based with second layer of e.g. perovskites)
This picture shows the value chain for solar PV and also is a helpful tool to determine for a country or company in which segment of the value chain the added value is the most. Value chain can be designed for standard Si based solar cells, but also for thin film solar cells
Blue is wind power, orange is utility solar PV, PPA (Purchase Power Agreement). In 2014, PV passed the 1% of total electricity supply
There are many sources for biomass (first and second generation) and many products (electricity, heat, chemicals). Biomass is building block for biobased economy and interwoven with already existing (petro)chemical industry.
Biomass contains valuable building blocks for further conversion to chemicals, lignin is one of those buiding blocks. Lignin is an aromatic compound that gives wood its strength.
This slide shows the different uses for lignin, from energy to special chemicals
Subject of investigation in the field of gasification
This is the learning curve for onshore wind, about 8 % learning rate, so for each doubling in installed capacity, a 8 % drop in price.
Learning effect of off shore wind limited, due to limited data set
A more integrated design approach with dedicated services in all elements of the value chain, will lead to cost reduction, to be monitored closely
Also, prediction of wind energy output a few days ahead is now far better than it was five years ago
Generation of jobs can be coupled with scenario modelling
These last topic will be addressed in the afternoon with the example of solar PV
Until 10-15 % of RES supply the electricity grid can cope with the variability
Demand response : users are paid to switch off equipment when there is excess electricity demand
Market coupling : price signals across markets line up with the actual supply and demand conditions
Using LCA tools
I hope I have given you the framework of the global playing field for renewables. There are huge opportunities present to take part in this strong growing business. In the afternoon , we will explore several concrete cases for cooperation which fit in this overall picture.
Asset financing scheme and value chain
LCOE, for off shore wind only recently some drop in LCOE cost
