Probable maximum precipitation (PMP) is widely used by hydrologists for appraisal of probable maximum flood (PMF) used for soil and water conservation structures, and design of dam spillways. The estimation of design storm for example depends on availability of rainfall quantities and their durations. Daily maximum multiannual series are one of the main inputs for design streamflow calculation. The study generated annual series of Daily maximum rainfall for fourty four stations by using statical approach such as Normal distribution, Log-Normal Distribution, Pearson type III distribution and Gumbel’s Distribution .Results reveals that among the different statical approaches Log-Normal distribution fits the best compared to others. Isohyetal Maps of study area at different frequency are produced by using GIS tools, the maximum intensity varies from 2.5 mm/hr to 628 mm/hr.
The SRE Report 2024 - Great Findings for the teams
Pstj 1342
1. Isopluvial Maps of Daily Maximum
Precipitation for Different Frequency for Upper
Cauvery Karnataka
Mohammed Badiuddin Parvez1
, Chalapathi k2
,Amritha Thankachan3
, M .Inayathulla4
1,2,3
Research Scholar, Department of Civil Engineering, UVCE, Bangalore University, Bangalore, Karnataka,
India.
4
Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, UVCE, Bangalore University, Bangalore, Karnataka, India.
Email: parvezuvce@gmail.com
ABSTRACT
Probable maximum precipitation (PMP) is widely used by hydrologists for appraisal of probable maximum flood (PMF) used
for soil and water conservation structures, and design of dam spillways. The estimation of design storm for example depends
on availability of rainfall quantities and their durations. Daily maximum multiannual series are one of the main inputs for
design streamflow calculation. The study generated annual series of Daily maximum rainfall for fourty four stations by using
statical approach such as Normal distribution, Log-Normal Distribution, Pearson type III distribution and Gumbel’s
Distribution .Results reveals that among the different statical approaches Log-Normal distribution fits the best compared to
others. Isohyetal Maps of study area at different frequency are produced by using GIS tools, the maximum intensity varies
from 2.5 mm/hr to 628 mm/hr.
Key words: Climate change, Daily Maximum Rainfall, Gumbel’s distribution, Isopluvial Maps, Log-Normal Distribution,
Maximum intensity, PMP, Rainfall Duration.
1 INTRODUCTION
Water scarcity appears to be a future problem for Karnataka. This problem is an existential threat which can potentially hurt
economic growth as well as agricultural growth. Water is expensive and inexpensive depending on its availability according
to law of demand and supply. Rainfall as an environmental phenomenon is of immense importance to mankind. Hence
the significance of studies to understand the rainfall process cannot be overemphasized. Floods, droughts, rainstorms,
and high winds are extreme environmental events which have severe consequences on human society. Planning for these
weather-related emergencies, design of engineering structures, reservoir management, pollution control, and insurance
risk calculations, all rely on knowledge of the frequency of these extreme events The total rainfall and its intensity for a
certain period of time are variable from year to another. The variation for depth of rainfall and its intensity depend
on the climate type and the length of the studied period. It can be noted in arid and semi-arid areas, there is a significant
change in the value of rain from time to another. Due to the significant variation in rainfall and its intensity in a
consider time, the design and construction of storm water drainage systems and flood control systems are not depend
only on the average of long-term rainfall records but on particular depths of precipitation that can be predicted for a
certain probability or return period. These depths of rainfall can only be determined through a comprehensive analysis of
a long time series of historical rainfall data. The historical rainfall data series are distinguished by medium and standard
deviation, this information cannot be randomly used to predict the rainfall depths that can be estimated with a
specific probability or return period for design and management of storm water drainage. Application of this
technique to a data set can lead to misguiding results where the actual properties of the distribution are
neglected. To avoid mistake, it is necessary to verify the integrity of the assumed distribution before
estimating the design depths of the rainfall. There is a need for information of the extreme amounts of rainfall for
various durations in the design of hydraulic structures and control storm runoff, such as dams and barriers, and
conveyance structures etc.
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2. 2 MATERIALS AND METHODS
A Study Area
The study area geographically lies between 750
29’ 19” E and 760
37’ 40” E longitude and 110
55’ 54” N and 130
23’
12.8” N latitude, as shown in Figure 1, the study area has an area of 10874.65 Sq km. The maximum length and width of the
study area is approximately equal to 143.73 km and 96.75 km respectively. The maximum and minimum elevation of the
basin is 1867 m and 714 m above MSL, respectively. Fourthy Four raingauge stations namely kushalnagar, malalur,
mallipatna, nuggehalli, periyapatna, ponnampet, sakaleshpur, salagame, shantigrama, arehalli, arkalgud, attigundi,
basavapatna, bettadapura, bilur, channenahally, chikkamagalur, doddabemmatti, galibidu, gonibeedu, gorur,
hagare,halllibailu, hallimysore, harangi, hassan, hosakere, hunsur, kechamanna hosakote, naladi, shantebachahalli, belur,
belagodu, javali, talakavery, shravanabelagola, siddapura, srimangala, sukravarsanthe, krishnarajpet, virajpet and yelawala
were considered as shown in Figure 2.
Figure 1 Location Map of Study Area Figure 2 Location of raingauge stations
B Methodology
Figure 3 Methodology for Isopluvial maps
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3. 2.B.1 Estimation of Short Duration Rainfall
Equation I was used for the estimation of various duration like 5minutes, 10minutes, 15minutes, 30minutes,1-hr, 2-hr, 6-hr,
12-hr rainfall values from annual maximum values.
Pt = P24 (
t
24
)
1
3
(Equation I)
where, Pt is the required rainfall depth in mm at t-hr duration,
P24 is the daily rainfall in mm and t is the duration of rainfall for which the rainfall depth is required in hr.
Twenty Two years (1995-2016) rainfall data was used for the estimation of Short duration rainfall by using above equation
for various stations as tabulated in Table 1 to Table 4. Table 1 shows the tabulation of short duration rainfall of station
Krishnarajpet. Table 2 shows the tabulation of short duration rainfall of station Melkote. Table 3 shows the tabulation of short
duration rainfall of station Hagare. Table 4 shows the tabulation of short duration rainfall of station Belagodu. Similarly the
short duration rainfall was tabulated for the remaining Fourty stations. Then statical approach was made with log normal,
Normal, Pearson Type III and Gumbel’s Distributions and they are checked for the best fit using Chi-square test for all the
stations.
C Probability distribution
In this study the maximum rainfall intensity for various return periods were estimated using different theoretical distribution
functions. Normal, Two-Parameter Lognormal, Pearson Type III, Extreme Value Type I (Gumbel) etc were used for
probability distribution of the daily rainfall data.
2.C.1 Normal distribution
Normal probability distribution, also called Gaussian distribution refers to a family of distributions that are bell shaped. The
PDF for a normal random variable x is
𝑓(𝑥) =
1
𝜎√2𝜋
exp [−
1
2
(
𝑥−µ
𝜎
)
2
](𝜎 > 0) (Equation II)
Where exp is the exponential function with base e = 2.718. µ is the mean and σ the standard deviation. 1/ (σ√ (2π)) is a
constant factor that makes the area under the curve of f(x) from -∞ to ∞ equal to 1.
2.C.2 Log-normal distribution
Variables in a system sometimes follow an exponential relationship as x = exp (w). If the exponent is a random variable, say
W, X = exp (W) is a random variable and the distribution of X is of interest. An important special case occurs when W has a
normal distribution. In that case, the distribution of X is called a lognormal distribution. The name follows transformation In
(X) = W. That is, the natural logarithm of X is normally distributed. (Kreyszig, 2006)
Probabilities for x are obtained from the transformation to W, but we need to recognize that the range of X is (0, ∞). Suppose
that W is normally distributed with mean θ and variance ω2
; then the cumulative distribution function for x is
𝐹(𝑥) = ∫
1
𝑥𝑏√2𝜋
exp {−
(ln 𝑥−𝑎)2
2𝑏2
} ⅆ𝑥;
𝑥
0
𝑂 < 𝑥 < ∞ (Equation III)
2.C.3 Gumbel distribution
Gumbel distribution is a statistical method often used for predicting extreme hydrological event such as floods. The equation
for fitting the Gumbel distribution to observed series of flood flow at different return periods T is
𝑥 𝑇 = 𝑥
−
+ 𝑘𝜎𝑥 (Equation IV)
Where xT denotes the magnitude of the T-year flood event, K is the frequency factor,𝑥
−
= mean and 𝜎𝑥= standard deviation of
the variate X.
The frequency factor K for Gumbel distribution is expressed as
PRAXIS SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY JOURNAL
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4. 𝐾 = − [
√6(0.5772+InI𝑛 (𝑇∕(𝑇−1))
𝜋
] (Equation V)
2.C.4 Pearson type III distribution
The Pearson type III distributions are commonly used to fit a sample of extreme hydrological data. A closed-form expression
for the CDF of the Pearson III distribution is not available. Tables or approximations must be used. Many tables provide
frequency factors Kp(γ) which are the pth
quantile of a standard Pearson III variate with skew γ, mean zero and variance 1. For
any mean and standard deviation, pth
Pearson III quantile can be written as
𝑥 𝑝 = 𝜇 + 𝜎𝑘 𝑝(𝛾) (Equation VI)
D Chi-Square Test
To identify a specific theoretical distribution for the available data it is important to do a test. The aim of the test is to find
how good a fit is between the observed and the predicted data. Chi-square is one of the most widely used tests to find the best
fit theoretical distribution of any specific dataset which is represented by Equation 2.17.
χ2 = ∑ (𝑂𝑖 − 𝐸𝑖)2𝑛
𝑖=1
∕ 𝐸𝑖 (Equation VII)
where, Oi and Ei represent the observed and expected frequencies respectively.
3 Results and Discussions
All the time series of the stations gives best fit using log normal distribution hence rainfall Intensities of all the station obtained
by log-normal distributions is considered. Considering lower return periods might not be appropriate considering the fact that,
generally the life of a structure is more than 25 years. The short durations of 5, 10, 15, 30, 60. 120, 720 and 1440 minutes
isopluvial maps were generated as the intensity decreases with the increase in duration for return period of 25years,
50years,75years and 100years as shown in Tables 5 to Table 8 and IDW analysis was done and the maps were obtained as
shown in figure 4 .
A Estimation of Short Duration Rainfall
Table 1 Short duration rainfall for Krishnarajpet
Year Rainfall
(mm) Pt = P24 (
t
24
)
1
3
in mm where, time t is in hours
Duration in minutes 5 10 15 30 60 120 720 1440
1995 74.000 11.206 14.118 16.161 20.362 25.654 32.322 58.734 74.000
1996 105.000 15.900 20.033 22.931 28.892 36.401 45.863 83.339 105.000
1997 50.600 7.662 9.654 11.051 13.923 17.542 22.102 40.161 50.600
1998 70.800 10.721 13.508 15.462 19.481 24.545 30.925 56.194 70.800
1999 60.000 9.086 11.447 13.104 16.510 20.801 26.207 47.622 60.000
2000 76.800 11.630 14.652 16.773 21.132 26.625 33.545 60.956 76.800
2001 85.600 12.962 16.331 18.695 23.554 29.676 37.389 67.941 85.600
2002 55.400 8.389 10.570 12.099 15.244 19.206 24.198 43.971 55.400
2003 65.200 9.873 12.439 14.239 17.940 22.604 28.479 51.749 65.200
2004 85.600 12.962 16.331 18.695 23.554 29.676 37.389 67.941 85.600
2005 82.500 12.493 15.740 18.018 22.701 28.601 36.035 65.480 82.500
2006 64.500 9.767 12.306 14.086 17.748 22.361 28.173 51.194 64.500
2007 60.000 9.086 11.447 13.104 16.510 20.801 26.207 47.622 60.000
2008 62.000 9.388 11.829 13.540 17.060 21.494 27.081 49.209 62.000
2009 97.200 14.719 18.544 21.228 26.746 33.697 42.456 77.148 97.200
2010 58.600 8.874 11.180 12.798 16.124 20.315 25.596 46.511 58.600
2011 80.200 12.144 15.301 17.515 22.068 27.804 35.031 63.655 80.200
2012 66.000 9.994 12.592 14.414 18.161 22.881 28.828 52.384 66.000
2013 42.000 6.360 8.013 9.173 11.557 14.561 18.345 33.335 42.000
2014 93.400 14.143 17.819 20.398 25.700 32.380 40.796 74.132 93.400
2015 65.500 9.918 12.496 14.305 18.023 22.708 28.610 51.987 65.500
2016 45.000 6.814 8.585 9.828 12.382 15.601 19.656 35.717 45.000
Table 2 Short duration rainfall for Melkote
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17. Figure 4; Isopluvial Maps for different duration and frequency
4 CONCLUSIONS
Hydrologists and engineers require Intensity-duration-frequency data in the planning and design of water resources
projects. Historical rainfall records are needed to obtain design estimates for both small and large projects. This
study has attempted to provide much needed and useful design charts for water resources planning and development
in Upper Cauvery. The results from the IDF analysis showed that the Log-Normal distribution method was successfully
used to derive the rainfall intensity, duration and frequency at each of the 44 selected synoptic stations in Upper Cauvery.
Isopluvial maps were also produce for Upper Cauvery for various duration and frequencies. The results obtained should
serve to meet the need for rainfall intensity-duration-frequency relationships and estimates in various parts of Upper
Cauvery, both for short and longer recurrence intervals. The use of the results of this study to calculate design floods could
be done with greater easy for most parts of Upper Cauvery. Village maps can be overlayed with isopluvial maps to find the
rainfall intensity at any particular point. It is hoped that as more precipitation data at required time scale are available the
analysis could also be refined and applied to individual station series to obtain improved estimates of the IDF parameters
and more precise maps.
Reference
1. Bell F. C., 1969, “Generalized rainfall-duration-frequency relationship”, ASCE J. Hydraulic Eng., 95, 311–327.
2. Bernard, M. M., (1932), “Formulas for rainfall intensities of long durations”. Trans. ASCE 6:592 - 624.
3. Bhaskar, N. R.; Parida, B. P.; Nayak, A. K. 1997. Flood Estimation for Ungauged Catchments Using the GIUH.
Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management., ASCE 123(4): 228-238.
4. Chow V.T., D.R. Maidment and L.W.Mays, 1988, “Applied Hydrology”, McGraw- Hill, Chapter 10 – Probability,
Risk and Uncertainty Analysis for Hydrologic and Hydraulic Design: 361 – 398.
5. M. M. Rashid, 1 S. B. Faruque and 2 J. B. Alam 2012, “Modeling of Short Duration Rainfall Intensity Duration
Frequency (SDRIDF) Equation for Sylhet City in Bangladesh.
PRAXIS SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY JOURNAL
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18. 6. Mohammed Badiuddin Parvez, M Inayathulla “Generation Of Intensity Duration Frequency Curves For Different
Return Period Using Short Duration Rainfall For Manvi Taluk Raichur District Karnataka”, International Research
Journal of Engineering and Management Studies (IRJEMS), Volume: 03 Issue: 04 | April -2019.
7. Mohammed Badiuddin Parvez, M Inayathulla “Prioritization Of Subwatersheds of Cauvery Region Based on
Morphometric Analysis Using GIS”, International Journal for Research in Engineering Application & Management
(IJREAM), Volume: 05 Issue: 01, April -2019.
8. Mohammed Badiuddin Parvez, M Inayathulla “Modelling of Short Duration Isopluvial Map For Raichur District
Karnataka”, International Journal for Science and Advance Research in Technology (IJSART), Volume: 05 Issue:
4, April -2019.
9. Mohammed Badiuddin Parvez, M Inayathulla, "Rainfall Analysis for Modelling of IDF Curves for Bangalore Rural,
Karnataka", International Journal of Scientific Research in Multidisciplinary Studies , Vol.5, Issue.8, pp.114-132,
2019
10. Mohammed Badiuddin Parvez, and M Inayathulla. "Generation of Short Duration Isohyetal Maps For Raichur
District Karnataka" International Journal Of Advance Research And Innovative Ideas In Education Volume 5 Issue
2 2019 Page 3234-3242
11. Mohammed Badiuddin Parvez, and M Inayathulla. " Derivation Of Intensity Duration Frequency Curves Using Short
Duration Rainfall For Yermarus Raingauge Station Raichur District Karnataka" International Journal of Innovative
Research in Technology Volume 6 Issue 2 July 2019 Page 1-7
12. Sherman, C. W. (1931). Frequency and intensity of excessive rainfall at Boston, Massachusetts, Transactions of the
American Society of Civil Engineers, 95, pp.951– 960.
AUTHORS PROFILE
Mohammed Badiuddin Parvez* Is a life member of Indian Water Resources
Society, ASCE Born in Karnataka, India Obtained his BE in Civil Engineering in
the year 2009-2013 from UVCE, Bangalore and M.E with specialization in Water
Resources Engineering during 2013-2015 from UVCE, Bangalore University and
Pursuing Ph.D from Bangalore University. And has 3 years of teaching experience.
Till date, has presented and published several technical papers in many National and
International seminars, Journals and conferences.
Amritha Thankachan, born in Kerala, obtained her B.Tech in Civil Engineering
in the year 2008-2012 from Amal Jyothi College of Engineering, Kanjirappally,
Kottayam and M.Tech with specialization on Integrated Water Resources
Management during 2012-2014 from Karunya University, Coimbatore. Presently
pursuing Ph.D from Bangalore University. She is having more than 4 years of
teaching experience. Till date, has presented and published several technical papers
in many National and International Seminars and Conferences.
PRAXIS SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY JOURNAL
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19. Chalapathi k Isa life member of Indian Water Resources
Society. Born in Karnataka, Obtained his BE in Civil Engineering in the year 2008-
2012 from GSKSJTI, Bangalore. and M.E with specialization on Water Resources
Engineering during 2012-2014 from UVCE, Bangalore University and Pursuing
Ph.D from Bangalore University. And has 3 years of teaching experience. Till
date, has presented and published several technical papers in many National
and International seminars and conferences.
M Inayathulla Is a life member of Environmental and Water
Resources Engineering (EWRI), ASCE, WWI, ASTEE, ASFPM. Born in Karnataka,
Obtained his BE in Civil Engineering in the year 1987-1991 from UBDT,
Davanagere and M.E with specialization on Water Resources Engineering during
1992-1994 from UVCE, Bangalore University and got Doctorate from Bangalore
University in the year 1990-1995. Presently working as Professor at UVCE,
Bangalore University, India. And has more than 25 years of teaching experience.
Till date, has presented and published several technical papers in many National
and International seminars and conferences
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