Presentation of Magnus Jändel, Sinna Lindquist and Linus Luotsinen on the topic "Emergent Social Coverage Maps in Urban Electronic Warfare" at ISCRAM2013

1. Social Coverage Maps
ISCRAM, 2013-05-15
Magnus Jändel, Sinna Lindquist and Linus Luotsinen
Swedish Defence Research Agency

2. San Francisco 3 July 2011
How can crisis managers handle secondary societal effects of disruptions?

3. Problem and Requirements
• Problem
• Emergent societal effects of disruptions are difficult to grasp and
analyse
• Decision makers use pattern recognition and intuition and have
little time for reasoning
• Decision makers may lack experience of complex societal
ramifications of disruptions
• Requirements on presentation of societal effects
• Simple visualization
• Integrated with map-based information
• Easy to understand with little training

4. Social Coverage Map (SCM)
• Analogous to technical coverage maps (radio, jamming)
• Summarizes emergent social effects of disruptions
• Can be used for a wide range of map-related disruptions e.g.
• Communication outages
• Teargas
• Pollution
• Floodings
• Visualizes a wide range of emergent effects e.g.
• Physical population movement
• Opinions
• Emotions
• Human relations

5. SCM example

6. SCM Definition
• The Perturbation Coverage Map (PCM) visualizes the
intensity distribution of the perturbation P(x,y,t).
• The Social Response Variable Q(x,y,t) measures a
relevant social response to the perturbation.
• Q(x,y,t1) depends in general on the history of P(x,y,t) for
all times t<t1 .
• The Social Coverage Map (SCM) visualizes the intensity
distribution of the social response variable Q(x,y,t).
• RSCM is the spatial resolution of the SCM.

7. Expected/planned disturbance
Social factors of interest
Spatial resolution of interest
How to generate SCMs
Simulation with
perturbation
Reference
simulation
Comparison

8. Scenario
• Urban environment at peace
• Blue force tasked with evacuating VIPs in road convoy
• Red force attempts to stop the convoy with flash mobs
• Mobile phones essential for organizing protests
• Blue force have jamming UAVs
• Jamming causes anxiety
• Worried people take to the roads
• Secondary effects of jamming may
cause traffic congestion
• Congested roads makes it easier for
flash mobs to catch up
• What is the optimal jamming policy?

9. POPSIM: Introduction
• A prototype targeting the
modeling and simulation of
human populations in urban
environments.
• Agent-based simulation.
• Implemented in Java using open
source libraries only.
… and many more!JUNG

10. POPSIM: Infrastructure and Environment
• Buildings and roads are fed into the simulator using
GIS/Shape files.

11. POPSIM: Cell Phone Coverage
• Cell phone coverage is calculated from the location and
effect of GSM base-stations and jamming sources

12. POPSIM: Population Synthesizer
• The population synthesizer is used
to generate synthetic data
representing the initial state of the
population.
• Synthesizer modules:
• Demography
• Geography
• Relationship
• Can be used online as well as
offline (read/write .pop files).
GIS
Demography
Statistics
Demography
Synthesizer
Synthetic
Population
Synthetic
Population
Geography
Synthesizer
Synthetic
Population
Sub- SynthesizerSub-Synthesizer
Input
Population Size
PopulationSynthesizerPipeline

13. Scenario-specific behaviour
• Adults phones family members intermittently
• In case of jamming, call attempts are repeated after five
minutes
• The caller becomes worried after four failed calls
• Worried people will moves towards home
• Worried people returns to the normal state and default
behaviour if a phone call succeed or family members are
found.

14. Planned disturbance: Jamming coverage map
Social factors of interest: movement and anxiety
Spatial resolution
Scenario SCMs
Simulation with
jamming
Reference
simulation
Comparison

15. Scenario simulation in POPSIM

16. SCM: At time T + 1 hour,
Population physical movement caused by jamming

17. SCM: Time T + 2 hours,
Population physical movement caused by jamming

18. SCM: Time T + 1 hour,
Anxiety caused by the disturbance

19. SCM: Time T + 2 hours,
Anxiety caused by the disturbance

20. Discussion
• Social Coverage Maps (SCM) may help crisis managers to
intuitively understand societal ramifications
• Leaders must be trained to understand the relevance of SCMs e.g.
• SCMs based on low-accuracy simulations serve as reminders of
unpredictable emergent societal effects
• SCMs based on high-accuracy simulations can be used for operational
planning
• Further research
• End-user trust
• Effects on decision-making
• Effects on training
• Effects on audits