Today’s organizations are challenged to gain insight into most productive marketing and sales actions across multiple channels they use. Doing this requires multi-channel marketing attribution approach.
Facing this topic I have made a personal research, and realize a synthesis, which has helped me to clarify some ideas. The attached presentation does not intend to be exhaustive on the subject, but could perhaps bring you some useful insights
3. Marketing Channels and Attribution
Mail
TV
TM Quote
TM Sale
Web Quote
Web Sale
Print
Search
Aggregator
Banner
email
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4. Marketing Channels and Attribution
Mail
TV
TM Quote
TM Sale
Web Quote
Web Sale
Print
Search
Aggregator
Banner
email
www.decideo.fr/bruley
5. Marketing Channels and Attribution
Mail
TV
TM Quote
TM Sale
Web Quote
Web Sale
Print
Search
Aggregator
Banner
email
www.decideo.fr/bruley
6. Marketing Channels and Attribution
Putting Response in Correct “Bucket”
Putting Sales in Correct “Bucket”
Calculating Media Cost per Sale
Spending Next Tactical Marketing Dollar
Building Media Specific Targeting Models
Making Strategic Business Decisions
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7. Channel Attribution Methodology
• Individual Customer Identification Numbers
• Marketing Source Codes
• Name and Address Match
• Factor Analysis
• Dynamic Time Series Regression
• Proportionately “Factor” Leftovers into Marketing
Channels
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8. What is a latent conversion
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9. What’s wrong with Google Analytics?
ROI is attributed to the last (latent) referrer (Most recent keyword, ad,
email, blog etc.) What’s wrong with most recent?
– Shoppers initiate search using broad categories
– Later narrow down to product names/IDs
– Perhaps then narrow to store brand
Broad categories don’t get the credit they (may) deserve
The only exception is direct type-in
Google Analytics takes the blame, though many web analytics tools work
the same in a default implementation
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10. Attribution examples
Quiz: An existing customer receives a catalog on September 1. On September 2, the
customer uses Google to search for merchandise, visits your website, and purchases
an item. What % of the order do you allocate to catalogs, to search, and to organic
brand loyalty?
Quiz: An existing customer receives a catalog on September 1, receives e-mail
marketing campaigns on September 7 and September 9, and purchases on your
website on September 10, buying merchandise featured in your catalog and
merchandise available only online. What % of the order do you allocate to catalogs, email, and to organic brand loyalty?
Quiz: An existing customer receives a catalog on August 1, and receives 17 e-mail
marketing messages between 8/1 and 10/1. On 10/4, the customer uses Google to
search for merchandise, visits, and buys an item. What % of the order do you allocate
to catalogs, to e-mail, to search, and to organic brand loyalty?
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11. Test + Results = Attribution Rules
The beautiful thing about catalog marketing and e-mail marketing is that
you can test, you can see what happens to other channels when you do not
mail a catalog, when you do not send an e-mail campaign!
Sample 80,000 twelve-month buyers with a valid e-mail address.
Group 1 = 20,000: Catalogs = Yes, E-Mail = Yes
Group 2 = 20,000: Catalogs = Yes, E-Mail = No
Group 3 = 20,000: Catalogs = No, E-Mail = Yes
Group 4 = 20,000: Catalogs = No, E-Mail = No
Execute for a month, quarter, season, or year!
In a controlled experiment, the results of your test tell you what impact
catalog marketing and e-mail marketing have on other channels (search,
mobile, social, display ads, affiliates), so you can set up reasonable
attribution rules!
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12. Some Results
We have four test panels in this test. We sent one catalog and nine
e-mail campaigns during a one-month timeframe
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13. What Is The Organic Percentage?
The organic percentage is possibly the most important metric a direct
marketer / catalog brand can track. It is the percentage of demand that will
be generated if no marketing exists.
What about our example?
Take the $5.80 generated in the
no catalogs / no e-mail test panel,
and divide it by the $11.37
generated in the catalogs + e-mail
test panel.
The result is 51%.
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13
14. A 51% Organic Percentage
We must execute catalog and e-mail mail/holdout test panels, in order to
properly estimate what our organic percentage is.
•When the organic percentage is < 20%, your matchback/allocation process is
generally accurate.
•When the organic percentage is > 40%, matchbacks and allocation programs
become increasingly inaccurate.
Does The Organic Percentage Vary?
•Some customers are “highly organic”, while other customers require “large
amounts of marketing”. There are HUGE profit opportunities in knowing this
difference!
•Customers who mail orders to a company or use the telephone to order
require advertising.
•Customers who combine catalogs and online channels are a “hybrid”,
requiring much less advertising.
•Customers who order online or in stores are highly organic, you can reduce
advertising!
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15. Key Takeaways
Have the courage to execute both catalog mail/holdout tests and e-mail
mail/holdout tests. Test four panels, test for a quarter or season or year if you can.
The results are going to be breathtaking!.
Catalogs: In many cases, orders that would have happened anyway are attributed
to catalogs, causing us to spend way too much money mailing catalogs.
E-Mail: E-Mail is frequently cannibalized by catalogs. E-Mail frequently causes
Search/Mobile orders to happen.
Search: Search is often the outcome of catalog marketing or e-mail marketing.
Social/Mobile: In the early stages of a channel, sales are frequently cannibalized
from existing channels, or the existing channels cause the sale to happen in the
new channel. Over time, new channels become “organic”, and do not require oldschool channels in order to create sales on their own. Tests can validate this.
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16. Multi-Channel Customer Analysis
Business Question(s):
•Prior to new product additions?
•Is there any identifiable pattern of behavior prior to account closure?
•If so, what does this pattern look like?
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17. Value of Aster Data for Digital Marketing
Aster Data Analysis
•Click-stream
•
# of visitors, visitor location, browser type
•
Last click analysis
•Online
behavior
•
•
•A/B
Common interaction behaviors
Optimal paths through website
+ Teradata Adds…
•Multi-channel
(online &
offline) campaign analysis
testing
•
•Search
•
•
-
Complete customer
interaction history
Where to place this button, link, etc.
•Marketing
Optimization
Mix of paid per click and organic
investment
Which search terms drive traffic, behaviors-
•Advertising
Optimization
Attribution + cost of
conversion
•Conversion
•
How to optimize advertising placement
•
Where are shopping carts abandoned & why
•Marketing
•
Attribution
What % credit to give each referring channel or
campaign
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return on
+ Aprimo Adds…
•Campaign management
-
Take action to influence
behaviors
•Marketing Resource
Management
-
Take action to optimize
marketing spend
19. Aster nPath Identifies the “Last Mile”
All interaction patterns evaluated in a single pass
userID
10001
Prepares multi-structured data
20001
•Stitches
rows together by customer in a timeordered view
Aster MapReduce
Platform
event
time
userID
event
time
10001
10001
20001
20001
10001
20001
Scans all records to produce a complete
set of paths
•No
need to define patterns in advance
Step 1: Pivot data via nPath
SQL-MapReduce
parallelized for top performance using
MapReduce where SQL falls down
channel1
… channeln
time1
… timen
10001
Online Retail
… Research
products
12:00 PM
1/1/2010
… 3:00 PM
2/15/2010
20001
•Fully
custID
Store Purchase
… BankX Credit
Card
1:45 PM
1/1/2010
… 12:20 PM
2/22/2010
Summarize output for business
exploration
order the most popular paths and yet
represent the long tail too
Step 2: Run nPath SQLMapReduce Java Logic
•Rank
channel1
…
channeln
35
Online Retail
…
Research products
26
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Total # of Customers
Store Purchase
…
BankX Credit Card
21. Marketing Strategy for Success
Where should I increase my Marketing
Spend to drive higher ROI?
Multi-Touch Attribution
Go beyond “last click” and identify which ads and
channels perform the best
Quantify which ads lead (attribute) to conversion
Calculate true ROI on a per ad basis
Run time-sensitive promotions by knowing which ads
convert the fastest.
Customer Journey Leading to Purchase on Online Store
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Hinweis der Redaktion
Here is aPOC that we did for a financial institution and I’d like to point a couple of things out first. Many times “Big Data” is focused on unstructured or new data that isn’t being analyzed today. Here is an example of Big Data Analytics on existing structured or relational data. All of the data was pulled from existing database systems, Teradata and Oracle, and loaded directly into Aster. Some of the data was unstructured in its original form but preprocessing was done on the data and then modeled into a relational database. So Big Data Analytics or MapReduce analytics can also analyze existing data as well as new data in the enterprise. The business questions that customer wanted to solve that they can’t solve easily today in SQL is “What events led up to a product purchase?” or “What events led up to a customer defection”. So we combined all these data subject areas and interactions and used our pattern and path analytics to answer these questions.
So the analysis is around finding the path of interactions that lead up to an event, with the event being a product purchase, a customer defection, or an appointment with a loan officer. The event analyzed in this example was an “Account Closure” and displayed using visualization tool like Tableau reading our Aster database tables. What you see are the list of interactions on the left that include branch activity, call center and web activity. I won’t go into detail but these interactions can be across multiple channels. On the bottom going right to left are the number of interactions that lead up to the event of “Account Closure”. One of the challenges of Big Data is that it does generate a lot of data and often it is hard to see the signal that lead to the event in all the noise of the data. So this is why Big Data Analytics is a very iterative process with the Data Scientist applying part science and part art while understanding their companies data and business problems.