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Update
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3.
Quarterly Economic Update
Fourth Quarter 2014
Michael L. Schwartz, RFC, CWS, CFS, a registered principal offering securities and advisory services through Independent Financial Group, LLC Member FINRA‐SIPC.
Schwartz Financial and Independent Financial Group are unaffiliated entities
Note: The views stated in this letter are not necessarily the opinion of Independent Financial Group, LLC., and should not be construed, directly or indirectly, as an offer
to buy or sell any securities mentioned herein. Investors should be aware that there are risks inherent in all investments, such as fluctuations in investment principal.
With any investment vehicle, past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Material discussed herewith is meant for general illustration and/or informational
purposes only, please note that individual situations can vary. Therefore, the information should be relied upon when coordinated with individual professional advice.
This material contains forward looking statements and projections. There are no guarantees that these results will be achieved. There is no guarantee that a diversified
portfolio will outperform a non‐diversified portfolio in any given market environment.
All indices referenced are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. Index
performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. The Standard and Poors 500 index is a
capitalization weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy. Through changes in the aggregate market value of 500
stocks representing all major indices. The Dow Jones Industrial average is comprised of 30 stocks that are major factors in their industries and widely held by individuals
and institutional investors.
Due to volatility within the markets mentioned, opinions are subject to change without notice. Information is based on sources believed to be reliable; however, their
accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed.
In general, the bond market is volatile, bond prices rise when interest rates fall and vice versa. This effect is usually pronounced for longer‐term securities. Any fixed
income security sold or redeemed prior to maturity may be subject to a substantial gain or loss.
Sources: yahoo.com; Wall Street Journal, Barron’s; WealthManagement.com; Bloomberg.com©
prices] will go,” said Ed Morse, global head of
commodities research for Citigroup Inc. Oil prices and
their fluctuations can create market disruption and
uncertainty. Oil prices will be on the list of items that we
will monitor in 2015.
(Source: Bloomberg.com, 1/2015)
International Concerns
For many market strategists, the bullish case for equities
includes a stronger European economy and the end of
the current recession in Japan. Most analysts feel that
the European Central Bank will follow the Federal
Reserve’s example and provide Quantitative Easing and
an asset buying program. These measures allow the
European Central Bank to bolster their countries’ money
markets.
(Source: Barron’s, 12/2014)
Russia and China also present concerns for investors.
Russia “is in bad shape, due to lower oil prices, but it
wants to remain relevant on the world stage,” according
to John Praveen of Prudential International Investment
Advisors. He and others also caution that China will be
another concern—investors will need to see if the
Chinese central bank can provide sufficient stimulus to
help their economy continue its expansion in 2015.
(Source: Barron’s, 12/2014)
U.S. Politics
As we head into 2015, the political landscape in the U.S.
has changed dramatically. Following six years of
gridlock and brinksmanship, 2015 could prove to be a
very interesting one, with Republicans taking control of
both the House and the Senate. Analysts are predicting
an active year in Washington. President Obama only has
24 months remaining to cement his legacy. Analysts
feel that comprehensive tax reform, especially closing
some loopholes and revamping corporate taxes, could
prove to be a big win for investors.
(Source: Barron’s, 1/2015)
Conclusion: What Should an Investor Do?
Although the U.S. stock market isn’t filled with
bargains, most analysts see the potential for U.S. stock
market gains in 2015. Jurrien Timmer, Director of
Global Macro in Fidelity's Global Asset Allocation
Division, encourages investors to “continue to view the
U.S. market as the best house on the street. As we all
know, the best house is usually the most expensive, and
for good reason.” While many analysts are predicting
growth for U.S. stocks, that growth might not come
easily. In the last three years the S&P 500 has risen
from a humble 11.7 times next-four-quarter earnings
estimates to an ambitious 16.5 times. Investors might be
best served structuring their portfolios to weather stock
market turbulence.
(Source: Barron’s, 12/2014)
Continue to be watchful. Even the most optimistic
investors need to be aware of some of the warning signs.
Focus on your own personal objectives. During
confusing times it is always wise to create realistic time
horizons and return expectations for your own personal
situation and to adjust your investments accordingly.
Understanding your personal commitments and
categorizing your investments into near-term, short-term
and longer-term can be helpful.
Be cautious with income investments. While some
income investors did well in 2014, this year the menu
could be less attractive. With the Federal Reserve and
interest rates in the spotlight, this is a good time to
understand your true income and cash flow needs.
Don’t try to predict the market. Investment decisions
driven by emotion can cause problems for investors.
Discipline and perspective can help investors remain
committed to their long-term investment programs
through periods of market uncertainty.

4.
Quarterly Economic Update
Fourth Quarter 2014
Retirement Planning Strategies
· IRA/Roth IRA
· Pensions/Profit Sharing
· SIMPLE Plans
· SEP-IRA Plans
· 401(k)/403(B)
Insurance Services
· Life
· Annuities
· Long Term Health Care
· Disability
College Savings Analysis
· Educational IRA
· 529 Plans
· Custodial Accounts
Investment Services
· Stocks
· Corporate Bonds
· Municipal Bonds
· Mutual Funds
· Real Estate Investment Trusts
· Variable Insurance / Annuities
· Private Equity
Estate Analysis
· Estate Tax Analysis
· Creation
· Estate Conversion Strategies
· Tax and Distribution Analysis
· Legacy Planning
Quarterly Economic Update
Fourth Quarter 2014
In this quarterly review:
 A Year in Review
 2014 Market Returns
 Office Happenings
- Tax Season
- Save the Date
 Looking Ahead to 2015
- Interest Rates
- Oil Prices
- International Concerns
- U.S. Politics
 An Outlook of 2015
 Client Advocacy Program
 Conclusion: What Should an Investor Do?
Schwartz Financial Services
Comprehensive Wealth Management & Retirement Planning
Schwartz Financial Services
Comprehensive Wealth Management & Retirement Planning
115 Old York Road | Jenkintown, PA 19046
215.886.2122 | 215.886.6144 (fax)
Schwartzfinancial.com
Complimentary Financial Review
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Schwartz Financial, we would like
to offer you a complimentary,
one-hour, consultation with one of
our professionals. Please call,
215.886.2122.
Help us Grow in 2015
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like yourself. Refer a friend and
become part of our Client
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