2. 2016Predictions
2
In 2016 these 10 predictions will take
hold, some good and others not so much.
These predictions are driven by recent advances in technology,
the economic climate, changes in consumer behaviors, and
everything in between.
2
2016Predictions
⎕ TED LEONSIS
The Good:
•E-gaming leagues become as valuable as national
sports leagues
•Over-the-top (OTT) Content becomes the norm
•Team Robotics joins the Olympics
•An unexpected M&A transaction acquires a 100-year old
company
•Advancements in wearables for the elderly
•The rise of the Super City
The Bad:
•Drone regulation debate intensifies
•A cyberterrorism attacks will cost more than a
natural disaster
•The public’s fascination with driverless cars
becomes skepticism and doubt
•Existing Unicorns will go public with lower
valuations
5. 2016Predictions
5
It won’t be long before a
drone incident
intensifies the conflict
between consumer drone
usage and commercial.
5
01
Drones and air space
management will come to a head.
2016Predictions
⎕ TED LEONSIS
6. 2016Predictions
66
167%
Increase in
consumer drone
shipments in 2014
2013
2014
2015E
01
Number of drone
incidents in 2015
969
# of Drone
Shipments in the US
Units expected to
be sold during
2015 holidays
1 MM
2016Predictions
It won’t be long before a drone
incident intensifies the conflict
between consumer drone usage
and commercial.
⎕ TED LEONSIS
8. 2016Predictions
8
The cost of a
cyberterrorism
attack will be
greater than that of
a natural disaster.
8
02
2016Predictions
⎕ TED LEONSIS
9. 2016Predictions
9
In 2016, the U.S.
government and major
corporations will face
an onslaught of attacks
that will prompt a new
industry to be created—
the hacking economy?
9
02
The cost of a
cyberterrorism attack will
be greater than that of a
natural disaster.
2016Predictions
⎕ TED LEONSIS
Types of Attacks
• State-sanctioned
• Criminal
• Terror
10. 2016Predictions
1010
$575B
Cost of cyber crime
to the global
economy, including
$100B to the U.S.
2013
2014
2015
02
Estimated cost
of the 2014 cyber
attack on Sony
$35MM
The cost of a
cyberterrorism attack will
be greater than that of a
natural disaster.
Total cost of cyber
crime to the average
US company
$15.4MM
2016Predictions
⎕ TED LEONSIS
13. 2016Predictions
13
A Super City is a
metropolitan region with a
population over ten million
people. In our lifetime, the
era of the nation state will
be replaced by the rise of
Super Cities.
13
03
Super Cities will become
more valuable and influential
than most countries.
2016Predictions
⎕ TED LEONSIS
Characteristics of a Super City:
• 60% of inhabitants under 30 years old
• Three airports
• Five (or more) research institutions
• Major broadband infrastructure
14. 2016Predictions
1414
2XNumber of cities
with more than 10
million people is
expected to double
in the next 15 years
03
Square miles
encompassing
greater London
600
Super Cities will become
more valuable and influential
than most countries.
Following the
Great Recession,
migration patterns
shifted to cities,
reversing the
suburban exodus.
46%
54%
2015 Urban
population
34%
66%
2050 Urban
population
2016Predictions
⎕ TED LEONSIS
Was the first year
that 50% of the
world’s population
lived in cities.
2008
17. 2016Predictions
17
Almost every major
car manufacturer and
technology company is
developing some type of
driverless vehicle and has
started testing them.
17
04
Society’s utopian view of
driverless cars will crash into
the practical realities.
2016Predictions
⎕ TED LEONSIS
18. 2016Predictions
1818
471k
Number of hackable
vehicles on the road
today via the
vulnerable Uconnect
system
04
Number of vehicles
recalled by Chrysler
after the 2014 Wired
magazine story about
hackers taking over a
Jeep Cherokee
1.4MM0
2.5
5
7.5
10
2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E
10MM
Estimated # of installed
base of cars with self-
driving features
2016Predictions
Society’s utopian view of
driverless cars will crash into
the practical realities.
⎕ TED LEONSIS
20. 2016Predictions
20
Within the next five
years we can expect
advances in wearables
will add 3-5 years to a
person’s life expectancy.
20
05
2016Predictions
⎕ TED LEONSIS
21. 2016Predictions
21
Quick advancements in
wearables for the elderly are
needed as the world population
is aging at an unprecedented
rate – by 2050, 2 billion people
will be over 60. And those
individuals will have grown
accustomed to technology
being a part of their daily lives.
21
05
Within the next five years we can
expect advances in wearables
will add 3-5 years to a person’s
life expectancy.
2016Predictions
⎕ TED LEONSIS
22. 2016Predictions
2222
80MM
Number of baby
boomers in the U.S.
Apple considers 41%
of their customers
boomers.
05
Estimated market
opportunity for
the “longevity
economy”
$20B
Within the next five years we
can expect advances in
wearables will add 3-5 years to
a person’s life expectancy.
2014
2015
2016E
U.S. Adult wearable users
$64MM
$25MM
2016Predictions
⎕ TED LEONSIS
24. 2016Predictions
24
Less than 10% of
existing Unicorns will
go public in 2016 at
valuations greater than
their current value.
24
06
2016Predictions
⎕ TED LEONSIS
25. 2016Predictions
25
Next year several Unicorns will
face down rounds when they go
public below their most recent
and highest growth private
rounds.
25
06
Less than 10% of existing
Unicorns will IPO at
valuations greater than
their current value
2016Predictions
⎕ TED LEONSIS
26. 2016Predictions
2626
145
Number of Unicorns in
the world (92 of which
are in the U.S.)
06
Amount Square lost of
its value following its
highly anticipated IPO
1/3
0
70
140
210
280
169
IPOs
273
IPOs
The IPO market fell to a six-
year low in 2015
Private
2016Predictions
Less than 10% of existing
Unicorns will IPO at
valuations greater than
their current value
⎕ TED LEONSIS
2014 2015
29. 2016Predictions
29
The latest generation of companies
—Google, Amazon, Uber, Tesla—
will make a major transaction in
business impacting an older
generation of companies. Amazon
might purchase the US Postal
Service, Tesla buys Ford, Airbnb
replaces Sabre systems, PayPal
and Visa merge.
29
07
There will be an
unexpected
pairing.
2016Predictions
⎕ TED LEONSIS
32. 2016Predictions
32
The IOC will create an
Olympic sub-group for
robots to compete in
their own events.
32
08
2016Predictions
⎕ TED LEONSIS
33. 2016Predictions
33
The Japanese are
leading the charge and
are planning to include a
robot village at the
2020 Tokyo games.
33
08
The IOC will create an
Olympic sub-group for
robots to compete in their
own events.
2016Predictions
⎕ TED LEONSIS
34. 2016Predictions
3434
25%
Percentage of total
supply belonging to
China in 2014
08
Size of the global
robot market by
2020
$40B
The IOC will create an
Olympic sub-group for
robots to compete in their
own events.
0
1.5
3
4.5
6
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
$6MM
$2MM
Consumer and office
robot units shipped
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
2016Predictions
⎕ TED LEONSIS
37. 2016Predictions
37
E-gaming leagues will rival
NFL, NHL, NBA and MLB in
terms of attendees and dollars
spent; just as video games
passed movie attendance
revenues.
37
09
E-gaming teams, stars and
leagues will emerge and rival
the NFL, NHL, NBA and MLB.
2016Predictions
⎕ TED LEONSIS
38. 2016Predictions
3838
55MM
Number of users on
TWITCH, a popular
video-streaming site
for gamers
09
Number of people
who watched or
played eSports in
2014
205MM
E-gaming teams, stars and
leagues will emerge and rival
the NFL, NHL, NBA and MLB.
0
125
250
375
500
20172016
Size of the eSports
market in millions
465
194
2016Predictions
⎕ TED LEONSIS
This trend is already
taking hold in
places like China
and Korea
eSports could also
be a sub-category in
the Olympics
(similar to robots)
41. 2016Predictions
41
Cable and satellite
connections are slowly
disappearing as more
consumers only use the
Internet to deliver content.
41
10
Over-the-top (OTT) content
will become the breakthrough
platform for millenials.
2016Predictions
⎕ TED LEONSIS
42. 2016Predictions
4242
57%
Percentage of TV
watching on a
computer, tablet or
smartphone by
those ages 14-25
10
Minutes accounted
for by mobile app
consumption on
mobile devices
7 of 8
Over-the-top (OTT) content
will become the breakthrough
platform for millenials.
0
9.5
19
28.5
38
NetflixHBO
37.7MM31.4MM
Number of
subscribers
2016Predictions
⎕ TED LEONSIS
