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Mercer Capital's Middle Market Transaction Update | Fall 2022

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Mercer Capital's Middle Market Transaction Update | Fall 2022

  1. 1. MERCER CAPITAL Middle Market Transaction Update Fall 2022 In This Issue U.S. Deal Value & Volume EBITDA Multiples EBITDA Multiples by Buyer Type Debt Multiples U.S. Deal Volume by Industry Number of Deals by Buyer Type www.mercercapital.com BUSINESS VALUATION & FINANCIAL ADVISORY SERVICES
  2. 2. Mercer Capital’s Middle Market Transaction Update // Fall 2022 © 2022 Mercer Capital // www.mercercapital.com 1 Introduction As seen in the chart to the right, overall deal activity in the second quarter of 2022 fell from levels seen in the first quarter of the year and the second quarter of 2021. In aggregate, deal activity in the first half of 2022 also fell from aggregate deal activity in the first half of 2021. Despite the decline in U.S. deal value and volume, multiples on deals completed in the first half of the year remained in line with levels observed in 2020 and 2021, suggesting a potential “flight to quality” of sorts in the middle market in the first half of the year. We’ll discuss that and more in this edition of Mercer Capital’s Middle Market Transaction Update. Broader economic conditions in the U.S. negatively influenced deal value and volume in the first half of 2022 but did not totally stifle overall deal activity. In the second quarter of 2022, U.S. GDP declined for the second straight quarter and annual and monthly inflation measures continued to hit record levels. In response to the rampant inflation in the U.S. economy, the Fed executed two sizable rate increases in the second quarter, including enacting the largest rate increase since 1994 at its June meeting. While the U.S. economy has not yet officially fallen into a recession (despite the two straight quarters of decline in GDP), most Fed watchers agree that Jay Powell and the FOMC won’t relent in their fight to bring down inflation even if it does cause a recession. In short, the Fed appears to be willing to take a cool down in inflation in exchange for a weaker short-term outlook in terms of GDP and overall economic growth. $52 $22 $35 $54 $49 $56 $63 $74 $50 $44 0.8 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.1 0.7 0.7 0 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.6 2 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2020 2021 2022 Deal Value ($B) Transaction Volume (000s) Source: Capital IQ U.S. Deal Value & Volume Q1-2020 to Q2-2022
  3. 3. Mercer Capital’s Middle Market Transaction Update // Fall 2022 © 2022 Mercer Capital // www.mercercapital.com 2 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2020 2021 2022 Real Estate Consumer Discretionary No Primary Industry Assigned Healthcare Industrials Information Technology Other Source: Capital IQ U.S. Deal Volume by Industry Q1-2020 to Q2-2022 TEV/EBITDA Multiples Despite these challenging macroeconomic conditions, deal activity did not come to the screeching halt in the first half of 2022 that was seen in the middle of 2020. We believe this is a good sign for the overall health of the middle market, particularly when coupled with the fact that multiples on PE deals were relatively unchanged in the second quarter as seen in the chart on the right. The prolonged “sellers’market” of the past several years appears to be holding up to this point in 2022, as buyers continue to be willing to pay elevated multiples for well-positioned businesses. Deals in the $50-$100 million tranche of the middle market actually realized multiple expansion in the second quarter, growing from an average multiple of 8.5x to 9.2x. Multiples in other tranches were either unchanged or slightly down. .0x 1.0x 2.0x 3.0x 4.0x 5.0x 6.0x 7.0x 8.0x 9.0x 10.0x 20Q3 20Q4 21Q1 21Q2 21Q3 21Q4 22Q1 22Q2 $10-$25 $25-$50 $50-$100 $100-$250 Source: GF Data® TEV/EBITDA Multiples Financial Buyers | Last 8 Quarters
  4. 4. Mercer Capital’s Middle Market Transaction Update // Fall 2022 © 2022 Mercer Capital // www.mercercapital.com 3 EBITDA Multiples by Buyer Type 2020 to 1H 2022 8.1x 8.3x 8.0x 7.0x 7.4x 7.5x 2020 2021 1H 22 Strategic Financial Source: Capital IQ (strategic) and GF Data (financial) Strategic multiples exclude outliers (defined as EBITDA multiple > 18x) Debt Multiples Debt multiples on PE deals fell in the second quarter of 2022. The drop in debt utilization in deal activity is likely a sign that rising interest rates are beginning to weigh on deal activity and financing terms. Rising interest rates equate to an increased cost of borrowing and overall cost of capital for businesses, which in turn increases the discount rates used in buyers’ valuations of potential targets. While elevated discount rates in theory should lead to valuations (and hence multiples) coming down from levels seen over the past several years, corporate balance sheets and PE firms still appear to be flush with cash. We believe that there is still a great deal of readily deployable capital on the sidelines that should continue to support elevated multiples and valuations in the middle market for the foreseeable future. 2.0x 2.5x 3.0x 3.5x 4.0x 4.5x 20Q3 20Q4 21Q1 21Q2 21Q3 21Q4 22Q1 22Q2 Total Debt/EBITDA Senior Debt/EBITDA Source: GF Data® Debt Multiples Financial Buyers | Through Q2-2022 Check Out This Video! What do you do if your business is approached by a potential acquirer? In this video, Nick Heinz presents four broad steps you should undertake to determine if the potential acquisition makes sense.
  5. 5. Mercer Capital’s Middle Market Transaction Update // Fall 2022 © 2022 Mercer Capital // www.mercercapital.com 4 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 20Q1 20Q2 20Q3 20Q4 21Q1 21Q2 21Q3 21Q4 22Q1 22Q2 Financial Strategic Source: Capital IQ Number of Deals by Buyer Type Q1-2020 to Q2-2022 Conclusion While deal volume was down in the second quarter of 2022 (and in the first half of the year in general), activity did not stop despite a challenging economic environment in the U.S. and geopolitical strife abroad. In our opinion, there has been a “flight to quality” of sorts in the middle market, which has supported valuations and multiples in spite of reduced deal volume. This has created heavy competition among strategic and financial buyers for well-positioned businesses coming to market and, in the process, has helped maintain the elevated multiples and deal values seen in the middle market over the past year or so. While observed multiples remain elevated, owners looking to transact their business would be advised to begin the process sooner rather than later given the prospects of further interest rate hikes, continued volatility in the public markets, ongoing geopolitical tensions, and the upcoming midterm elections. While the state of the middle market remained relatively placid in the first half of 2022, these and other factors could hamper deal activity in the coming quarters and years.
  6. 6. Before you do, check out our recent series on Buy-Side Considerations For more information, visit www.mercercapital.com Thinking About Acquiring? Identifying Acquisition Targets and Assessing Strategic Fit How to Approach a Target and Perform Initial Due Diligence Strategic Premiums: Can 2+2 Equal 5? Considerations in Merger Transactions The Importance of a Quality of Earnings Study Negotiating Working Capital Targets in a Transaction Considering Contingent Consideration Buy-Side Fairness Opinions: Fair Today, Foul Tomorrow? Buy-Side Solvency Opinions The Importance of Purchase Price Allocations to Acquirers 1 2 6 7 8 9 10 3 4 5
  7. 7. Securities transactions conducted through StillPoint Capital, Member FINRA/SIPC, Tampa, FL. Certain members of Mercer Capital are Registered Representatives of the broker dealer StillPoint Capital, LLC. Mercer Capital and StillPoint Capital, LLC are not affiliated entities. Copyright © 2022 Mercer Capital Management, Inc. All rights reserved. It is illegal under Federal law to reproduce this publication or any portion of its contents without the publisher’s permission. Media quotations with source attribution are encouraged. Reporters requesting additional information or editorial comment should contact Barbara Walters Price at 901.685.2120. Mercer Capital’s Tennessee Family Law Newsletter is published quarterly and does not constitute legal or financial consulting advice. It is offered as an information service to our clients and friends. Those interested in specific guidance for legal or accounting matters should seek competent professional advice. Inquiries to discuss specific valuation matters are welcomed. To add your name to our mailing list to receive this complimentary publication, visit our web site at www.mercercapital.com. BUSINESS VALUATION & FINANCIAL ADVISORY SERVICES In addition to our corporate valuation services, Mercer Capital provides investment banking and transaction advisory services to a broad range of public and private companies and financial institutions. MERCER CAPITAL Transaction Advisory Services Transaction Advisory Services Advantages We Offer • M&A Representation • ESOP Installation, Termination, and Transactions • Squeeze-Out Transactions • Fairness and Solvency Opinions • Minority Shareholder Stock Repurchases • Corporate or Partnership Recapitalizations • Maximize Net Proceeds • Negotiate the Best Possible Terms • Speed Up the Deal Process • Ensure Transaction Closure • Help Ensure Confidentiality • Minimize Burden on the Ownership Mercer Capital has been successfully executing mergers & acquisitions for a broad spectrum of middle-market companies since the mid-1980s. We specialize in providing merger & acquisition services to sellers or buyers of private businesses or public companies divesting divisions and subsidiaries. In addition, Mercer Capital assists clients in industry consolidations, roll-ups, and refinancings. Mercer Capital leverages its historical valuation and investment banking experience to help clients navigate a critical transaction, providing timely, accurate and reliable results. We have significant experience advising boards of directors, management, trustees, and other fiduciaries of middle-market public and private companies in a wide range of industries. Our independent advice withstands scrutiny from shareholders, bondholders, the SEC, IRS, and other interested parties to a transaction, and we are well-versed in the new industry standards. The professionals of Mercer Capital guide you through the uncharted waters of selling your business, acquiring another business or division, mergers, valuations, fairness opinions, and other transaction advisory needs. Rely on the experience, independence, and transaction know-how of Mercer Capital. Nicholas J. Heinz, ASA Timothy R. Lee, ASA Jeff K. Davis, CFA heinzn@mercercapital.com leet@mercercapital.com jeffdavis@mercercapital.com 901.685.2120 901.322.9740 615.345.0350 Matthew R. Crow, ASA, CFA John T. (Tripp) Crews, III crowm@mercercapital.com crewst@mercercapital.com 901.685.2120 901.322.9735

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