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•  Economic Outlook: An Update
   •  Bootleggers & Baptists

         January 25, 2013

           Bruce Yandle
        yandle@bellsouth.net
Bruce yandle-chc-january
This is a year of the Snake, and all
things will be possible. Saving
money and being thrifty should be
your top priorities. Delusion and
deception are common in the year
of the Snake. Stay alert! To gain
the greatest benefits from this year,
you must control spending and use
your talents wisely. If you are
planning to get married or to begin
a business partnership, be sure to
thoroughly investigate the other
person's finances and background
before you legalize the alliance.
	
  	
  
 	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  GDP   Growth Forecasts, 2013 - 2014
Forecaster                                       2013           2014       Date

Bloomberg                                     2.1%        2.0%         10/5/12
CBO                                           0.5 – 1.7                11/9/12
Conf. Board                                   1.3         1.4          12/12/12
Fed—Chic                                      2.3                      12/3/12
Fed—Phila                                     2.0         2.7          11/9/12
Ga. State                                     1.5         2.6          11/14/12
IMF                                           2.2         2.1          10/./12
Moody’s                                       2.0                      12/10/12
NABE                                          2.4                      10/15/12
Wells Fargo                                   1.5         2.4          12/21/12
WSJ                                           2.4                      11/5/12
World Bank                                    2.4                      6/./11
What about Retail Sales
Employment?
Housing?
$140,000
                    $145,000
                               $150,000
                                          $155,000
                                                     $160,000
                                                                $165,000
                                                                           $170,000
                                                                                      $175,000
                                                                                                 $180,000
                                                                                                            $185,000
2007-01-01
2007-03-01
2007-05-01
2007-07-01
2007-09-01
2007-11-01
2008-01-01
2008-03-01
2008-05-01
2008-07-01
2008-09-01
2008-11-01
2009-01-01
2009-03-01
2009-05-01
2009-07-01
2009-09-01
2009-11-01
2010-01-01
2010-03-01
2010-05-01
2010-07-01
                                                                                                                       Millions, Seasonally Adjusted




2010-09-01
2010-11-01
                                                                                                                                                       U.S. Retail Sales, 1/2007 - 11/2012




2011-01-01
2011-03-01
2011-05-01
2011-07-01
2011-09-01
2011-11-01
2012-01-01
2012-03-01
2012-05-01
2012-07-01
2012-09-01
2012-11-01
0
                      500
                            1000
                                   1500
                                          2000
                                                 2500
                                                                                      1600	
  



 1990-­‐01-­‐01	
  
 1990-­‐09-­‐01	
  
 1991-­‐05-­‐01	
  
 1992-­‐01-­‐01	
  
 1992-­‐09-­‐01	
  
 1993-­‐05-­‐01	
  
 1994-­‐01-­‐01	
  
 1994-­‐09-­‐01	
  
 1995-­‐05-­‐01	
  
 1996-­‐01-­‐01	
  
 1996-­‐09-­‐01	
  
 1997-­‐05-­‐01	
  
 1998-­‐01-­‐01	
  
 1998-­‐09-­‐01	
  
 1999-­‐05-­‐01	
  
 2000-­‐01-­‐01	
  
 2000-­‐09-­‐01	
  
 2001-­‐05-­‐01	
  
 2002-­‐01-­‐01	
  
 2002-­‐09-­‐01	
  
 2003-­‐05-­‐01	
  
 2004-­‐01-­‐01	
  
 2004-­‐09-­‐01	
  
 2005-­‐05-­‐01	
  
                                                                (thousand, annual rate)




 2006-­‐01-­‐01	
  
 2006-­‐09-­‐01	
  
 2007-­‐05-­‐01	
  
 2008-­‐01-­‐01	
  
 2008-­‐09-­‐01	
  
                                                        U.S. Housing Starts, 1/1990 - 11/2012




 2009-­‐05-­‐01	
  
 2010-­‐01-­‐01	
  
 2010-­‐09-­‐01	
  
 2011-­‐05-­‐01	
  
 2012-­‐01-­‐01	
  
 2012-­‐09-­‐01	
  
2015
  2016	
  
0.00
                5.00
                       10.00
                               15.00
                                       20.00
                                               25.00
1990-01-01
1990-09-01
1991-05-01
1992-01-01
1992-09-01
1993-05-01
1994-01-01
1994-09-01
1995-05-01
1996-01-01
1996-09-01
1997-05-01
1998-01-01
1998-09-01
1999-05-01
2000-01-01
2000-09-01
2001-05-01
2002-01-01
2002-09-01
                                                       (millions, annual rate)




2003-05-01
2004-01-01
2004-09-01
2005-05-01
2006-01-01
                                                                                 U.S. Auto & Light Vehicle Sales, 1990-2012




2006-09-01
2007-05-01
2008-01-01
2008-09-01
2009-05-01
2010-01-01
2010-09-01
2011-05-01
2012-01-01
Bruce yandle-chc-january
130000
                  132000
                           134000
                                    136000
                                             138000
                                                      140000
                                                               142000
                                                                        144000
                                                                                 146000
                                                                                          148000
2002-01-01
                                                                                                   Thousands




2002-05-01
2002-09-01
2003-01-01
2003-05-01
2003-09-01
2004-01-01
2004-05-01
2004-09-01
2005-01-01
2005-05-01
2005-09-01
2006-01-01
2006-05-01
2006-09-01
2007-01-01
2007-05-01
2007-09-01
2008-01-01
2008-05-01
2008-09-01
2009-01-01
2009-05-01
2009-09-01
2010-01-01
2010-05-01
2010-09-01
2011-01-01
2011-05-01
                                                                                                   U.S. Total Employment, 1/2002-11/2012




2011-09-01
2012-01-01
2012-05-01
2012-09-01
130000
                       132000
                                134000
                                         136000
                                                  138000
                                                           140000
                                                                    142000
                                                                             144000
                                                                                      146000
                                                                                               148000
2002-01-01
                                                                                                        Thousands




2002-05-01
2002-09-01
2003-01-01
2003-05-01
2003-09-01
2004-01-01
2004-05-01
2004-09-01
2005-01-01
2005-05-01
2005-09-01
2006-01-01
2006-05-01
2006-09-01
2007-01-01
2007-05-01
2007-09-01
2008-01-01
2008-05-01
2008-09-01
2009-01-01
2009-05-01
2009-09-01
2010-01-01
2010-05-01
2010-09-01
2011-01-01
2011-05-01
                                                                                                        U.S. Total Employment, 1/2002-11/2012




2011-09-01
2012-01-01
2012-05-01
2012-09-01
       2013
0.00
                   20.00
                           40.00
                                   60.00
                                           80.00
                                                                               100.00
                                                                                          120.00
                                                                                                   140.00
                                                                                                            160.00
                                                                                                                     180.00
                                                                                                                              200.00


Mar-­‐2001	
  
Jun-­‐2001	
  
Sep-­‐2001	
  
Dec-­‐2001	
  
Mar-­‐2002	
  
Jun-­‐2002	
  
Sep-­‐2002	
  
Dec-­‐2002	
  
Mar-­‐2003	
  
Jun-­‐2003	
  
Sep-­‐2003	
  
Dec-­‐2003	
  
Mar-­‐2004	
  
Jun-­‐2004	
  
Sep-­‐2004	
  
Dec-­‐2004	
  
Mar-­‐2005	
  
Jun-­‐2005	
  
Sep-­‐2005	
  
Dec-­‐2005	
  
Mar-­‐2006	
  
Jun-­‐2006	
  
Sep-­‐2006	
  
Dec-­‐2006	
  
Mar-­‐2007	
  
Jun-­‐2007	
  
Sep-­‐2007	
  
Dec-­‐2007	
  
Mar-­‐2008	
  
                                                           3/2001 - 9/2012




Jun-­‐2008	
  
Sep-­‐2008	
  
Dec-­‐2008	
  
Mar-­‐2009	
  
Jun-­‐2009	
  
Sep-­‐2009	
  
Dec-­‐2009	
  
                                              Case-Shiller 20-City Housing Price Index,




Mar-­‐2010	
  
Jun-­‐2010	
  
Sep-­‐2010	
  
Dec-­‐2010	
  
Mar-­‐2011	
  
Jun-­‐2011	
  
Sep-­‐2011	
  
Dec-­‐2011	
  
Mar-­‐2012	
  
Jun-­‐2012	
  
Sep-­‐2012	
  
0
                                                                                50
                                                                                                                         100
                                                                                                                                                           150
                                                                                                                                                                                            200
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        250
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       300
  January 2002
     June 2002
November 2002
     April 2003
September 2003
 February 2004
     July 2004
December 2004
     May 2005
  October 2005
    March 2006
   August 2006
  January 2007
     June 2007
November 2007
     April 2008
September 2008
 February 2009
     July 2009
December 2009
     May 2010
  October 2010
    March 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Case-Shiller Price Index, 1/2002-9/2012




   August 2011
  January 2012
     June 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                     D.C.	
  




                  Dallas	
  
                                                                                                                                                                         Miami	
  




     SeaIle	
  
                                                                                                                                Boston	
  
                                                                                                                  Detroit	
  
                                                                                                                                                                                                Denver	
  




                                                                                                                                                           Atlanta	
  
                                                                                                                                             Chicago	
  
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Phoenix	
  




                               Portland	
  
                                                                                                   CharloIe	
  


                                                              New	
  York	
  
                                                                                Las	
  Vegas	
  


                                              Cleveland	
  
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Los	
  Angeles	
  
                                                                                                                                                                                                             San	
  Francisco	
  
Bruce yandle-chc-january
Excess Reserves in Depository Institutions
           1/1950 – 11/2012
Got the Regulatory Blues??




	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  Shall.	
  	
  Must.	
  	
  May	
  	
  not.	
  	
  Prohibited.	
  	
  Required.	
  
Industry Regulation Index
1.45


 1.4


1.35


 1.3


1.25


 1.2


1.15


 1.1


1.05


  1


0.95
       1997   1998   1999      2000          2001      2002    2003       2004   2005       2006   2007     2008      2009   2010
                       Oil	
  &	
  Gas	
        Rail	
        Paper	
        Chemical	
        Industry	
  Mean	
  
Cost???
$ 1.8 trillion annually. Wayne Crews, Tip of the Iceberg, CEI,
September, 2012. ($5,678 per capita. Federal taxes are $4,160
per capita.)

$ 1.7 trillion annually. Nicole Crain and Mark Crain, The
Impact of Regulatory Costs on Small Firms, Small Business
Administration, September 2010. ($5,362 per capita)

$ 576 billion across 10 year period for six major categories.
Sam Batkins and Ike Brannon. Examining the U.S.
Regulatory Budget. Regulation, Winter 2012-2013, 5-6.
($1,826 per capita)

$ 59 billion annually. Susan Dudley and Melinda Warren.
Growth in Regulators’ Budget Slowed by Fiscal Stalemate.
July 2012. ($186 per capita)
Something even more
costly happens. When
regulation is endogenous,
incentives change for all private
agents. Instead of spending time
at the margin searching for
superior products and services to
send to the market, entrepreneurs
focus on higher payoff endeavors:
Working the halls of congress.
Moral Hazard enters the picture.
Command and control reduces progress
based on income growth and innovation.
Enterprise Exits, Fewer than 20 & More than 500 Employees,
<20                             1989 - 2010 Title
700000



600000



500000



400000



300000



200000



100000



      0




                                    <20 Employees
Enterprise Exits, Fewer than 20 & More than 500 Employees,
        <20                                1989 - 2010 Title                                                                                        >500
         700000                                                                                                                                     600



         600000
                                                                                                                                                    500


         500000
                                                                                                                                                    400

         400000

                                                                                                                                                    300

         300000

                                                                                                                                                    200
         200000


                                                                                                                                                    100
         100000



                 0                                                                                                                                  -




                                                              <20 Employees             >500 Employees


Source: Office of Advocacy, U.S. Small Business Administration, from data provided by the U.S. Bureau of the Census, Statistics of U.S. Business.
0
                         100,000
                                   200,000
                                             300,000
                                                       400,000
                                                                 500,000
                  1970                                                     600,000
                  1971
                  1972
                  1973
                  1974
                  1975
                  1976
                  1977
                  1978
                  1979
                  1980
                  1981
                  1982
                  1983
                  1984
                  1985
                  1986
                  1987
                  1988
                  1989
                  1990




Domestic Owners
                  1991
                                                                                                      1970 - 2011




                  1992
                  1993




Total
                  1994
                  1995
                  1996
                  1997
                  1998
                  1999
                  2000
                  2001
                                                                                     U.S. Patents Issued, Total & Domestic Owners




                  2002
                  2003
                  2004
                  2005
                  2006
                  2007
                  2008
                  2009
                  2010
                  2011
U.S. Report Card

  Decade                      Real GDP                    Real Per                   Economic
                              Growth,                     Capita GDP                 Freedom of the
                              Annualized                  Growth                     World. U.S. Rank
                                                                                     Last year in
                                                          Annualized
                                                                                     decade
  1951-1960                   3.05%                       1.25%
  1961-1970                   4.40                        3.14
  1971-1980                   3.16                        2.11                          5
  1981-1990                   3.32                        2.36                          3
  1991-2000                   3.81                        2.58                          3
  2001-2010                   1.60                        0.66                        10      (2009)

  2001-2007                   2.56                        1.59                          5

  Average,                    3.10%                       1.89%
  1951-2010
Lawrence H. Officer and Samuel H. Williamson
"Annualized Growth Rate and Graphs of Various Historical Economic Series," MeasuringWorth, 2011.
URL: www.measuringworth.com/growth/ Accessed 03/22/12.
0
                                                 10000
                                                         20000
                                                                 30000
                                                                         40000
                                                                                 50000
                                                                                         60000
                                                                                                 70000
                                                                                                         80000
                                                                                                                 90000
                                                                                                                         100000
                                      1940
                                      1942
                                      1944
                                      1946
                                      1948
                                      1950
                                      1952
                                      1954




Federal Register, 2011.
                                      1956
                                      1958
                                      1960




Source: Crews (2010, 38), Office of
                                      1962
                                      1964
                                      1966
                                      1968
                                      1970
                                      1972
                                      1974
                                      1976
                                      1978
                                      1980
                                      1982
                                      1984
                                      1986
                                      1988
                                                                                                                            Federal Register Pages: 1940-2011




                                      1990
                                      1992
                                      1994
                                      1996
                                      1998
                                      2000
                                      2002
                                      2004
                                      2006
                                      2008
                                      2010
Federal Register Pages per $Billion Real GDP
                      1940-2011


18


16


14


12


10


 8


 6


 4


 2


 0
Federal Register Pages per $Billion Real GDP
                      1940-2011


18


16


14


12


10


 8


 6


 4


 2


 0
Theories of Regulation
                          Help to Explain Political Action
PUBLIC INTEREST. Politicians seek to serve the public interest. They want to make
everyone, taken together, better off. They seek to create new wealth, not to redistribute
existing wealth. Of course, politicians are only human, but they do try to serve the broad
public interest. (Marver Bernstein. Regulating Business by Independent Commission.
1955)

CAPTURE. Politicians try to serve the public interest, but some parts of the public are
more interesting than others. Narrow interest groups capture the politician’s ear, and
even go so far as to write proposed statutes and regulations. Unwittingly, perhaps, the
publicly interested politician becomes captured by a special interest. But which one?
(Gabriel Kolko. 1963. The Triumph of Conservatism.)

SPECIAL INTEREST. Politicians recognize their value in brokering deals. They know
there are many special interest groups who wish to obtain favors, even at the expense of
the broad public interest. The successful politician will balance public and private
interests, while selling his or her services to the highest bidder. Now we know which one.
(George Stigler. 1971. The Economic Theory of Regulation.)

MONEY FOR NOTHING. The market for political favors is not necessarily dominated by
favor seekers. Politicians are a major force in instigating activities that will induce
contribution. They “bait the political hook” with threats of action and await requests to
“do nothing.” Instead of seeing new pages in the Federal Register or new statutes, we
see nothing. (Fred McChesney. 1998. Money for Nothing.)
Bootlegger/Baptists connect the Public
Interest theory to the Interest Group
theory, but in a special way. Bootleggers
are eager to obtain politically delivered
restrictions and transfers that
redistribute wealth. Baptists seek similar
goals, but for moral reasons. With the
support of both groups, the politician can
deliver producer and consumer rents in a
single action…, and take pleasure in
trumpeting his action. He is otherwise
handicapped.
Bruce	
  Bueno	
  de	
  Mesquita	
  and	
  Alastair	
  Smith	
  
The	
  Dictator’s	
  Handbook,	
  2011	
  


                             PoliXcians	
  seek	
  to	
  gain	
  and	
  hold	
  power	
  
                             through	
  redistribuXon.	
  	
  RegulaXon	
  is	
  among	
  
                             items	
  that	
  can	
  redistribute	
  wealth.	
  	
  Theirs	
  is	
  
                             a	
  theory	
  of	
  winning	
  coaliXons.	
  Each	
  party	
  is	
  
                             necessary,	
  but	
  not	
  sufficient.	
  	
  It	
  takes	
  both	
  to	
  
                             provide	
  a	
  criXcal	
  element	
  in	
  the	
  selectorate	
  
                             that	
  keeps	
  the	
  poliXcal	
  deals	
  in	
  place.	
  
Politician/
                                   Brokers




Interest
Groups
               Bootleggers	
  &	
  BapXsts	
  is	
  
               a	
  transmission	
  theory	
  
     Broker first has a knowledge problem.
     Then, a justification problem
Raising Rivals’ Cost through the Ages


Magna Charta, 1215: One standard width for all cloth
 sold in the kingdom.

English Factory Acts, 1833: Minimum age for factory
  workers, minimum size for factory rooms.

Fair Labor Standards Act, 1938: Minimum wage and
  maximum hours worked for covered workers.

U.S. Fuel Economy Standards, 1977: Fleet standards
  to be met for domestically produced vehicles.
	
  
	
  
Owls, of all Things, help Weyerhaeuser
Cash in on Timber
The Wall Street Journal, June 24, 1992, 1-A.




Weyerhaeuser says it has restricted logging on 320,000 acres to
  comply with federal and state rules protecting the birds. On the
  other hand, logging restrictions to protect the owl have put more
  than five million acres of federal timberland in the Pacific
  Northwest out of loggers’ reach—and driven lumber prices
  through the roof.

Owl-driven profits enabled the company to earn $86.6 million in the
  first quarter, up 81% from a year earlier.
Cartelizing Industries

Clean Air Act 1970,amended. Differential effects. Stricter new source
   standards block entry and enable existing firms to earn rents. Same with
   Federal Water Pollution Control Act. Industry executives, environmentalists,
   Ralph Nader, and Richard Nixon supported the law.

CPSC Lawnmower standard, 1982. Technology standard that led to demise of
  small mower producers.

Tobacco Settlement, 1998. Attorneys general negotiated elimination of
   advertising practices, payment of $246 billion, the largest settlement in
   history, to states for healthcare and tobacco cessation programs, and
   encouraged producers to collude and raise price. Industry is managed by
   settlement.

Obamacare, 2011. Eliminated state control of insurance marketers. Increased
  potential insurance market by an order of magnitude. Cartelized industry.

	
  
	
  
Bootleggers Subsidizing Baptists
Theodore	
  Vail,	
  president	
  of	
  American	
  Telephone	
  &	
  Telegraph	
  Company,	
  develops	
  	
  
   natural	
  monopoly	
  concept,	
  	
  and	
  mounts	
  successful	
  PR	
  campaign,	
  leading	
  to	
  
   formaXon	
  of	
  naXonal	
  monopoly	
  and	
  ICC	
  regulaXon	
  in	
  1910.	
  	
  	
  
	
  

Tobacco	
  industry	
  forms	
  NaXonal	
  AssociaXon	
  of	
  Fire	
  Marshalls	
  in	
  the	
  1980s	
  	
  to	
  
   publicize	
  and	
  lobby	
  successfully	
  for	
  flame	
  retardant	
  treatment	
  of	
  all	
  
   upholstered	
  furniture,	
  and	
  stymie	
  call	
  for	
  safe-­‐burn	
  cigareIes	
  and	
  extended	
  
   liability.	
  
	
  

Teamsters	
  fund	
  Sierra	
  Club	
  in	
  2009	
  to	
  fight	
  NAFTA’s	
  relaxaXon	
  of	
  trucking	
  rules.	
  
Chesapeake	
  Gas	
  and	
  American	
  Gas	
  AssociaXon	
  provide	
  $26	
  million	
  subsidy	
  to	
  
   Sierra	
  Club	
  beginning	
  in	
  2007	
  in	
  an	
  EPA	
  struggle	
  to	
  eliminate	
  coal-­‐fired	
  
   uXliXes.	
  
	
  

United	
  Arab	
  Emirates	
  funds	
  2012	
  Promised	
  Land,	
  an	
  anX-­‐fracking	
  movie	
  
   developed	
  to	
  build	
  support	
  for	
  regulaXon	
  limiXng	
  use	
  of	
  fracking	
  to	
  obtain	
  
   natural	
  gas	
  and	
  oil	
  from	
  deep	
  shale	
  deposits.	
  	
  

	
  
We should call it national capitalism.
N.S.B. Gras, Capitalism—Concepts & History, 1939.


No, it should be called political
capitalism.
Gabriel Kolko, The Triumph of Conservatism, 1963.


We have crony capitalism.
David Stockman, Moyers & Company, March
7, 2012.
Let’s just call it
Bootleggers &
Baptists
capitalism.

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Bruce yandle-chc-january

  • 1. •  Economic Outlook: An Update •  Bootleggers & Baptists January 25, 2013 Bruce Yandle yandle@bellsouth.net
  • 3. This is a year of the Snake, and all things will be possible. Saving money and being thrifty should be your top priorities. Delusion and deception are common in the year of the Snake. Stay alert! To gain the greatest benefits from this year, you must control spending and use your talents wisely. If you are planning to get married or to begin a business partnership, be sure to thoroughly investigate the other person's finances and background before you legalize the alliance.    
  • 4.                  GDP Growth Forecasts, 2013 - 2014 Forecaster 2013 2014 Date Bloomberg 2.1% 2.0% 10/5/12 CBO 0.5 – 1.7 11/9/12 Conf. Board 1.3 1.4 12/12/12 Fed—Chic 2.3 12/3/12 Fed—Phila 2.0 2.7 11/9/12 Ga. State 1.5 2.6 11/14/12 IMF 2.2 2.1 10/./12 Moody’s 2.0 12/10/12 NABE 2.4 10/15/12 Wells Fargo 1.5 2.4 12/21/12 WSJ 2.4 11/5/12 World Bank 2.4 6/./11
  • 5. What about Retail Sales Employment? Housing?
  • 6. $140,000 $145,000 $150,000 $155,000 $160,000 $165,000 $170,000 $175,000 $180,000 $185,000 2007-01-01 2007-03-01 2007-05-01 2007-07-01 2007-09-01 2007-11-01 2008-01-01 2008-03-01 2008-05-01 2008-07-01 2008-09-01 2008-11-01 2009-01-01 2009-03-01 2009-05-01 2009-07-01 2009-09-01 2009-11-01 2010-01-01 2010-03-01 2010-05-01 2010-07-01 Millions, Seasonally Adjusted 2010-09-01 2010-11-01 U.S. Retail Sales, 1/2007 - 11/2012 2011-01-01 2011-03-01 2011-05-01 2011-07-01 2011-09-01 2011-11-01 2012-01-01 2012-03-01 2012-05-01 2012-07-01 2012-09-01 2012-11-01
  • 7. 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 1600   1990-­‐01-­‐01   1990-­‐09-­‐01   1991-­‐05-­‐01   1992-­‐01-­‐01   1992-­‐09-­‐01   1993-­‐05-­‐01   1994-­‐01-­‐01   1994-­‐09-­‐01   1995-­‐05-­‐01   1996-­‐01-­‐01   1996-­‐09-­‐01   1997-­‐05-­‐01   1998-­‐01-­‐01   1998-­‐09-­‐01   1999-­‐05-­‐01   2000-­‐01-­‐01   2000-­‐09-­‐01   2001-­‐05-­‐01   2002-­‐01-­‐01   2002-­‐09-­‐01   2003-­‐05-­‐01   2004-­‐01-­‐01   2004-­‐09-­‐01   2005-­‐05-­‐01   (thousand, annual rate) 2006-­‐01-­‐01   2006-­‐09-­‐01   2007-­‐05-­‐01   2008-­‐01-­‐01   2008-­‐09-­‐01   U.S. Housing Starts, 1/1990 - 11/2012 2009-­‐05-­‐01   2010-­‐01-­‐01   2010-­‐09-­‐01   2011-­‐05-­‐01   2012-­‐01-­‐01   2012-­‐09-­‐01   2015 2016  
  • 8. 0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 1990-01-01 1990-09-01 1991-05-01 1992-01-01 1992-09-01 1993-05-01 1994-01-01 1994-09-01 1995-05-01 1996-01-01 1996-09-01 1997-05-01 1998-01-01 1998-09-01 1999-05-01 2000-01-01 2000-09-01 2001-05-01 2002-01-01 2002-09-01 (millions, annual rate) 2003-05-01 2004-01-01 2004-09-01 2005-05-01 2006-01-01 U.S. Auto & Light Vehicle Sales, 1990-2012 2006-09-01 2007-05-01 2008-01-01 2008-09-01 2009-05-01 2010-01-01 2010-09-01 2011-05-01 2012-01-01
  • 10. 130000 132000 134000 136000 138000 140000 142000 144000 146000 148000 2002-01-01 Thousands 2002-05-01 2002-09-01 2003-01-01 2003-05-01 2003-09-01 2004-01-01 2004-05-01 2004-09-01 2005-01-01 2005-05-01 2005-09-01 2006-01-01 2006-05-01 2006-09-01 2007-01-01 2007-05-01 2007-09-01 2008-01-01 2008-05-01 2008-09-01 2009-01-01 2009-05-01 2009-09-01 2010-01-01 2010-05-01 2010-09-01 2011-01-01 2011-05-01 U.S. Total Employment, 1/2002-11/2012 2011-09-01 2012-01-01 2012-05-01 2012-09-01
  • 11. 130000 132000 134000 136000 138000 140000 142000 144000 146000 148000 2002-01-01 Thousands 2002-05-01 2002-09-01 2003-01-01 2003-05-01 2003-09-01 2004-01-01 2004-05-01 2004-09-01 2005-01-01 2005-05-01 2005-09-01 2006-01-01 2006-05-01 2006-09-01 2007-01-01 2007-05-01 2007-09-01 2008-01-01 2008-05-01 2008-09-01 2009-01-01 2009-05-01 2009-09-01 2010-01-01 2010-05-01 2010-09-01 2011-01-01 2011-05-01 U.S. Total Employment, 1/2002-11/2012 2011-09-01 2012-01-01 2012-05-01 2012-09-01 2013
  • 12. 0.00 20.00 40.00 60.00 80.00 100.00 120.00 140.00 160.00 180.00 200.00 Mar-­‐2001   Jun-­‐2001   Sep-­‐2001   Dec-­‐2001   Mar-­‐2002   Jun-­‐2002   Sep-­‐2002   Dec-­‐2002   Mar-­‐2003   Jun-­‐2003   Sep-­‐2003   Dec-­‐2003   Mar-­‐2004   Jun-­‐2004   Sep-­‐2004   Dec-­‐2004   Mar-­‐2005   Jun-­‐2005   Sep-­‐2005   Dec-­‐2005   Mar-­‐2006   Jun-­‐2006   Sep-­‐2006   Dec-­‐2006   Mar-­‐2007   Jun-­‐2007   Sep-­‐2007   Dec-­‐2007   Mar-­‐2008   3/2001 - 9/2012 Jun-­‐2008   Sep-­‐2008   Dec-­‐2008   Mar-­‐2009   Jun-­‐2009   Sep-­‐2009   Dec-­‐2009   Case-Shiller 20-City Housing Price Index, Mar-­‐2010   Jun-­‐2010   Sep-­‐2010   Dec-­‐2010   Mar-­‐2011   Jun-­‐2011   Sep-­‐2011   Dec-­‐2011   Mar-­‐2012   Jun-­‐2012   Sep-­‐2012  
  • 13. 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 January 2002 June 2002 November 2002 April 2003 September 2003 February 2004 July 2004 December 2004 May 2005 October 2005 March 2006 August 2006 January 2007 June 2007 November 2007 April 2008 September 2008 February 2009 July 2009 December 2009 May 2010 October 2010 March 2011 Case-Shiller Price Index, 1/2002-9/2012 August 2011 January 2012 June 2012 D.C.   Dallas   Miami   SeaIle   Boston   Detroit   Denver   Atlanta   Chicago   Phoenix   Portland   CharloIe   New  York   Las  Vegas   Cleveland   Los  Angeles   San  Francisco  
  • 15. Excess Reserves in Depository Institutions 1/1950 – 11/2012
  • 16. Got the Regulatory Blues??                              Shall.    Must.    May    not.    Prohibited.    Required.  
  • 17. Industry Regulation Index 1.45 1.4 1.35 1.3 1.25 1.2 1.15 1.1 1.05 1 0.95 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Oil  &  Gas   Rail   Paper   Chemical   Industry  Mean  
  • 18. Cost??? $ 1.8 trillion annually. Wayne Crews, Tip of the Iceberg, CEI, September, 2012. ($5,678 per capita. Federal taxes are $4,160 per capita.) $ 1.7 trillion annually. Nicole Crain and Mark Crain, The Impact of Regulatory Costs on Small Firms, Small Business Administration, September 2010. ($5,362 per capita) $ 576 billion across 10 year period for six major categories. Sam Batkins and Ike Brannon. Examining the U.S. Regulatory Budget. Regulation, Winter 2012-2013, 5-6. ($1,826 per capita) $ 59 billion annually. Susan Dudley and Melinda Warren. Growth in Regulators’ Budget Slowed by Fiscal Stalemate. July 2012. ($186 per capita)
  • 19. Something even more costly happens. When regulation is endogenous, incentives change for all private agents. Instead of spending time at the margin searching for superior products and services to send to the market, entrepreneurs focus on higher payoff endeavors: Working the halls of congress.
  • 20. Moral Hazard enters the picture. Command and control reduces progress based on income growth and innovation.
  • 21. Enterprise Exits, Fewer than 20 & More than 500 Employees, <20 1989 - 2010 Title 700000 600000 500000 400000 300000 200000 100000 0 <20 Employees
  • 22. Enterprise Exits, Fewer than 20 & More than 500 Employees, <20 1989 - 2010 Title >500 700000 600 600000 500 500000 400 400000 300 300000 200 200000 100 100000 0 - <20 Employees >500 Employees Source: Office of Advocacy, U.S. Small Business Administration, from data provided by the U.S. Bureau of the Census, Statistics of U.S. Business.
  • 23. 0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 1970 600,000 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 Domestic Owners 1991 1970 - 2011 1992 1993 Total 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 U.S. Patents Issued, Total & Domestic Owners 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
  • 24. U.S. Report Card Decade Real GDP Real Per Economic Growth, Capita GDP Freedom of the Annualized Growth World. U.S. Rank Last year in Annualized decade 1951-1960 3.05% 1.25% 1961-1970 4.40 3.14 1971-1980 3.16 2.11 5 1981-1990 3.32 2.36 3 1991-2000 3.81 2.58 3 2001-2010 1.60 0.66 10 (2009) 2001-2007 2.56 1.59 5 Average, 3.10% 1.89% 1951-2010 Lawrence H. Officer and Samuel H. Williamson "Annualized Growth Rate and Graphs of Various Historical Economic Series," MeasuringWorth, 2011. URL: www.measuringworth.com/growth/ Accessed 03/22/12.
  • 25. 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 80000 90000 100000 1940 1942 1944 1946 1948 1950 1952 1954 Federal Register, 2011. 1956 1958 1960 Source: Crews (2010, 38), Office of 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 Federal Register Pages: 1940-2011 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
  • 26. Federal Register Pages per $Billion Real GDP 1940-2011 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0
  • 27. Federal Register Pages per $Billion Real GDP 1940-2011 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0
  • 28. Theories of Regulation Help to Explain Political Action PUBLIC INTEREST. Politicians seek to serve the public interest. They want to make everyone, taken together, better off. They seek to create new wealth, not to redistribute existing wealth. Of course, politicians are only human, but they do try to serve the broad public interest. (Marver Bernstein. Regulating Business by Independent Commission. 1955) CAPTURE. Politicians try to serve the public interest, but some parts of the public are more interesting than others. Narrow interest groups capture the politician’s ear, and even go so far as to write proposed statutes and regulations. Unwittingly, perhaps, the publicly interested politician becomes captured by a special interest. But which one? (Gabriel Kolko. 1963. The Triumph of Conservatism.) SPECIAL INTEREST. Politicians recognize their value in brokering deals. They know there are many special interest groups who wish to obtain favors, even at the expense of the broad public interest. The successful politician will balance public and private interests, while selling his or her services to the highest bidder. Now we know which one. (George Stigler. 1971. The Economic Theory of Regulation.) MONEY FOR NOTHING. The market for political favors is not necessarily dominated by favor seekers. Politicians are a major force in instigating activities that will induce contribution. They “bait the political hook” with threats of action and await requests to “do nothing.” Instead of seeing new pages in the Federal Register or new statutes, we see nothing. (Fred McChesney. 1998. Money for Nothing.)
  • 29. Bootlegger/Baptists connect the Public Interest theory to the Interest Group theory, but in a special way. Bootleggers are eager to obtain politically delivered restrictions and transfers that redistribute wealth. Baptists seek similar goals, but for moral reasons. With the support of both groups, the politician can deliver producer and consumer rents in a single action…, and take pleasure in trumpeting his action. He is otherwise handicapped.
  • 30. Bruce  Bueno  de  Mesquita  and  Alastair  Smith   The  Dictator’s  Handbook,  2011   PoliXcians  seek  to  gain  and  hold  power   through  redistribuXon.    RegulaXon  is  among   items  that  can  redistribute  wealth.    Theirs  is   a  theory  of  winning  coaliXons.  Each  party  is   necessary,  but  not  sufficient.    It  takes  both  to   provide  a  criXcal  element  in  the  selectorate   that  keeps  the  poliXcal  deals  in  place.  
  • 31. Politician/ Brokers Interest Groups Bootleggers  &  BapXsts  is   a  transmission  theory   Broker first has a knowledge problem. Then, a justification problem
  • 32. Raising Rivals’ Cost through the Ages Magna Charta, 1215: One standard width for all cloth sold in the kingdom. English Factory Acts, 1833: Minimum age for factory workers, minimum size for factory rooms. Fair Labor Standards Act, 1938: Minimum wage and maximum hours worked for covered workers. U.S. Fuel Economy Standards, 1977: Fleet standards to be met for domestically produced vehicles.    
  • 33. Owls, of all Things, help Weyerhaeuser Cash in on Timber The Wall Street Journal, June 24, 1992, 1-A. Weyerhaeuser says it has restricted logging on 320,000 acres to comply with federal and state rules protecting the birds. On the other hand, logging restrictions to protect the owl have put more than five million acres of federal timberland in the Pacific Northwest out of loggers’ reach—and driven lumber prices through the roof. Owl-driven profits enabled the company to earn $86.6 million in the first quarter, up 81% from a year earlier.
  • 34. Cartelizing Industries Clean Air Act 1970,amended. Differential effects. Stricter new source standards block entry and enable existing firms to earn rents. Same with Federal Water Pollution Control Act. Industry executives, environmentalists, Ralph Nader, and Richard Nixon supported the law. CPSC Lawnmower standard, 1982. Technology standard that led to demise of small mower producers. Tobacco Settlement, 1998. Attorneys general negotiated elimination of advertising practices, payment of $246 billion, the largest settlement in history, to states for healthcare and tobacco cessation programs, and encouraged producers to collude and raise price. Industry is managed by settlement. Obamacare, 2011. Eliminated state control of insurance marketers. Increased potential insurance market by an order of magnitude. Cartelized industry.    
  • 35. Bootleggers Subsidizing Baptists Theodore  Vail,  president  of  American  Telephone  &  Telegraph  Company,  develops     natural  monopoly  concept,    and  mounts  successful  PR  campaign,  leading  to   formaXon  of  naXonal  monopoly  and  ICC  regulaXon  in  1910.         Tobacco  industry  forms  NaXonal  AssociaXon  of  Fire  Marshalls  in  the  1980s    to   publicize  and  lobby  successfully  for  flame  retardant  treatment  of  all   upholstered  furniture,  and  stymie  call  for  safe-­‐burn  cigareIes  and  extended   liability.     Teamsters  fund  Sierra  Club  in  2009  to  fight  NAFTA’s  relaxaXon  of  trucking  rules.   Chesapeake  Gas  and  American  Gas  AssociaXon  provide  $26  million  subsidy  to   Sierra  Club  beginning  in  2007  in  an  EPA  struggle  to  eliminate  coal-­‐fired   uXliXes.     United  Arab  Emirates  funds  2012  Promised  Land,  an  anX-­‐fracking  movie   developed  to  build  support  for  regulaXon  limiXng  use  of  fracking  to  obtain   natural  gas  and  oil  from  deep  shale  deposits.      
  • 36. We should call it national capitalism. N.S.B. Gras, Capitalism—Concepts & History, 1939. No, it should be called political capitalism. Gabriel Kolko, The Triumph of Conservatism, 1963. We have crony capitalism. David Stockman, Moyers & Company, March 7, 2012.
  • 37. Let’s just call it Bootleggers & Baptists capitalism.