1. CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION AND
MITIGATION IN AGRICULTURE –
CHALLENGES
Vu Cong Lan
National Institute of Agricultural Planning and
Projection (NIAPP), Ministry of Agriculture and Rural
Development (MARD)

2. CONTENTS
1. OVERVIEW
2. NATIONAL PROGRAMS
3. FINDINGS
4. CHALLENGES
5. ISSUES TO BE ADDRESSED

3. OVERVIEW
Source:
Items Unit Whole Farmers, Agriculture,
http://www.gso.gov.vn
country Rural Areas
Amount (%)
1. Population Million 87.84 59.95 68.25
2. Labor Million 51.4 36.1 70.3
3. Land Thousand ha 33,095.7 26,226.4 79.2
4. GDP Thou. Bill. 2,535 558 22
VND
5. Investment Thou. Bill. 877.8 52.5 6
VND
6. Population % 1.04 -0.77
growth
7. Unemployment Million 1.05 0.53 50.2

4. Share of Agriculture in Vietnamese Total GDP
(percentage)
Source: GSO

5. SEVEN ZONES IN VIET NAM
Agricultural- forestry and fishery production - 7 zones:
1. North mountainous and middle lands
2. Red River Delta (RRD)
3. North of Central Coastal Lines
4. South of Central Coastal Lines
5. Northeast of the Mekong River Delta
6. The Central Highlands
7. Mekong River Delta (MRD)
1. North Mountainous and Middle lands zone
2. Red River Delta zone
3. North of Central Cost zone
4. South of Central Cost zone
5. North East of the Mekong Delta zone
6. Central Highland zone
7. Mekong River Delta zone

7. SEVEN ZONES IN VIET NAM (Cont.)
- Large population, high average density per square km,
uneven distribution (Approx. 86people/km2 in the Central
Highlands; 1204 people/sq. km in the RRD; 430
people/sq. km in the MRD).
- RRD and MRD are most important areas (rice production,
annual plantation, pig, poultry). The paddy rice fields both
RRD and MRD are susceptible to CC and floods,
especially MRD.
- The Central Highlands for forestry, perennial plants and
industrial trees.
- Coastal lines for aquaculture, fishery and salt production.

8. Poverty Rate in Vietnam
Source: GSO
2002 2006 2010
COUNTRY 28.9 15.5 14.2
Urban 6.6 7.7 6.9
Rural 35.5 18.0 17.4
REGION
Red River Delta 21.5 10.0 8.3
Northeast 47.9 27.5 29.4
Northwest 35.7 22.2 20.4
North Central Coast 51.8 24.0 22.2
South Central Coast 8.2 3.1 2.3
The Central Highlands 23.4 13.0 12.6
Southeast of MRD 6.6 7.7 6.9
Mekong River Delta 35.6 18.0 17.4

9. NATIONAL PROGRAMS
Food Security: Resolution No. 63/NQ-CP (23/12/09)
• Vision
• Food security objectives (to 2020) are broadly defined:
• ensure (stable) availability of ample food supplies
• eradicate hunger
• reduce the incidence of child malnutrition down to 5%
• improve the nutritional balance of the Vietnamese diet
• Also: contribute to world food security; raise farmer incomes,
improve food safety, improve export competitiveness; and raise
efficiency and sustainability of food production.
• Keeping land for rice cultivation at 3.8 mil ha

10. NATIONAL PROGRAMS
Program of GHG emission reduction in the Agriculture and Rural
Development up to 2020
Objectives:
1. To promote green and safe agricultural production to
produce, low emissions, sustainable development and
ensuring national food security, contributing to poverty
reduction and effectively responding to CC.
2. Up to 2020, to reduce by 20% of the total GHG
emission in agriculture and rural development sector
(18.87 million ton CO2); and simultaneously ensure the
growth target of agriculture and rural development, and
reduce the poverty rate according to sectoral
development strategy.

11. NATIONAL PROGRAMS
SEDS (2011-2020) and Agricultural Development Plan to 2020
and Vision to 2030
GDP growth rate of on average 7-8% per year.
Income per capita will reach about $3,000 and VN becomes a
middle-income country by 2020.
The total share of agriculture will be around 15% and that of
industry and service 85%.
Share of agricultural labour will be 30-35%.
Urbanization rate will reach 45% (55% in 2030).
Human Development Index (HDI) will reach the average high-
income group in the world.
Population growth of 1%.
Access to clean water for most of the population.
Forest cover reaches 45%.
Protection of the environment and improvement of
environmental quality, active response to CC, control and
prevention of natural calamities.

12. FINDINGS (Study on Food Security, Land Use and
Climate Change by CDKN, NIAPP, LEI-Wageningen)
1. Land Use Change:
Economic development and structural change will lead to
considerable change in land use under each of 3 scenarios
(Business As Usual, BAU; High Climate Impact, HCI; High
Economic Growth, HEG).
2. Food Security:
Large areas of paddy rice in RRD and MRD disappear
under each of 3 scenarios due to the expansion of built up
land, especially RRD.
However, the available land for paddy rice in 2030 is still
slightly larger than 3.8 million ha (targeted 2020).
Therefore, maintaining at least 3.8 mil. ha requires
additional policy measures.

13. FINDINGS (Cont. )
3. Flooding:
In addition to economic development, flooding induced by
CC poses a serious threat to rice production in Viet Nam. In
particular, the paddy rice fields in the low-lying MRD and
RRD are susceptible to floods. To meet the flood security
rice target, policies are needed.
4. CC and Biodiversity:
Demand for land and forest resources will put pressure on
special use forest. The loss of rich, mostly natural forest,
will threaten biodiversity and deforestation will contribute to
greenhouse gas (GHG) emission in Viet Nam. Policies are
needed that ensure protection of non-production forest and
protected forest.

14. FINDINGS (Cont.)
5. Policy Trade-Offs:
Land use policy trade-offs are necessary to mitigate
conflicts, for instance reducing land use for rice and
increasing forest areas so as to reduce GHG emission will
affect food security negatively unless rice yields or rice
import increase.

15. VULNERABILITY and UNCERTAINTY
Vulnerable farmers:
• Farmers in mountainous and remote regions
• Artisanal fishers in central coastal region
• Poor urban workers with unstable employment
• Landless/near landless in MKD and RRD lacking reliable
income sources

16. Future Uncertainties
• Price volatilities
• Natural disasters and climate impacts are unpredictable (short-
tem and certain area)
• Competition in land using for other purposes.
• Regulations and financial support

17. CHALLENGES (for Farmers)
More challenging physical conditions (arable land, water,
inputs and energy).
High level waste of food (every step of the food cycle).
Livestock and biofuels likely lead to more crises.
Over half of our food comes from only 3 plants (rice, corn,
cassava) as compared to more than 50,000 edible plants.
(by Daniele Giovanucci, et. Al)

18. CHALLENGES (for Policy-makers)
• Strong commitment of high-ranking leadership, top-down
manner, not bottom-up.
• Policy trade-offs: Reducing land use for rice and
increasing forest areas to reduce GHG emission will affect
food security negatively.
• Fragmentation of policy, institution and financing: Food
security), CC mitigation and adaptation are Multi-purpose,
multi-sector and large scope.

19. CHALLENGES (Data and Information)
• Data shortage : Other crops (rather than rice). Irrigation,
fishery; rural and rural occupations.
• Data discrepancies and sharing: among line agencies (for
instance land use)
• Knowledge/data gaps: Knowledge about CSA is
nonexistent or weak.
• Information and impact forecast of water utilization and
reservoir operation in upper Mekong river and detailed
forecast of sea water raise at the sub-region, provincial
and city levels are not available.
• Information sharing and lesson learnt of CC adaptation
and mitigation on agriculture among production sectors,
regions.

20. CHALLENGES (Awareness)
• Lack of general knowledge on CC, and quantitative and
qualitative forecasts of CC impact on agriculture.
• Lack of models which provide forecast on economic and
agricultural growth, optimal land uses under CC impact.
• In many cases, the CC adaptation and mitigation are not
yet identified as one of main factor for setting agricultural
planning at the sub-region, provincial levels and agro-
production sectors in response to CC impact.

21. CHALLENGES (Awareness)
• In the mid and short-tem agricultural planning options, CC
impact and its uncertainties, risks, vulnerabilities and
counter-measures are not identified yet.
• Other strategies and national plans to support to setting
agricultural planning at the region, sub-region and
provincial levels in responding to the CC impact.
• Climate smart agriculture (CSA): triple wins for food
security, adaptation and mitigation. Maximize synergies
and minimize trade-offs but trade-offs are inevitable.
• Shortage budget allocation for studying and setting pilots
and models of agricultural production under CC
adaptation and mitigation.

22. ISSUES TO BE ADDRESSED
• More focus on “better production” and better food
systems rather than “more” production
• Aware of decision makers about the complex and
uncertain relationships between global and local drivers of
socio-economic change, and take a forward look when
formulating food security and CC mitigation and
adaptation policies, supporting the national Green Growth
and REDD strategies.
• Effective coordination and collaboration among line
agencies (MONRE, MARD, etc.) both central and local
levels in terms of policy, institutional arrangements and
funding channels).

23. ISSUES TO BE ADDRESSED
• Socio-economic development, CC and food security are
all interconnected at different scales. CC adaptation and
mitigation should be taken into consideration in any
sustainable agriculture development plan and strategy of
7 agro-forest-fishery production zones, especially the
RRD and MRD.
• Comprehensive collaboration effort and research on CC
and its adaptation and mitigation should be at every level,
ranging from community, local, region to nation.
• Institutional capacity building for formulating policies and
agricultural planning.

24. ISSUES TO BE ADDRESSED
• International cooperation and collaboration with advanced
countries and organizations, etc. in terms of experience
and information sharing, analytic skills, forecast and
necessary tools for assessment, etc.
• Further introduction of models, such as Computable
General Equilibrium (CGE), Modular Applied General
Equilibrium Toolbox (MAGNET), Conversion of Land Use
Change and its Effects (CLUE), Agriculture and Land Use
(ALU), etc. and their application in specific area, RRD and
MRD.
• GIS application (detecting variation of agricultural land
use, predicting rice yield, etc.) should be further
continued.

25. THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION !