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McKinsey & Company 1
There have been five fundamental shifts in consumer behavior,
some of which will likely have a lasting impact
3. Digital is here
to stay
Over 50%
intend to continue
using virtual
conferencing and
learning
2. Signs of
spend recovery
27%
of consumers
expect to splurge or
treat themselves in
2021
5. Continued
loyalty
disruption
82%
of consumers have
tried a new
shopping behavior
which they now do
regularly
4. Reinvestment
in the home
26%
of consumers have
created a dedicated
work-from-home
space
47%
of consumers feel
optimistic about the
economic recovery
1. Increased
overall optimism
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Mexico Consumer Pulse Survey 2/20–3/2/2021, n = 1,048, sampled and weighted to match Mexico's general population 18+ years
CURRENT AS OF MARCH 2, 2021
McKinsey & Company 2
Confidence in own country’s economic recovery after COVID-191
% of respondents
Mexican consumers are more optimistic than consumers in Europe
and the United States, but less so than Indian or Chinese consumers
Increased overall optimism
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Consumer Pulse Survey
1. Q: What is your overall confidence level surrounding economic conditions after the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis subsides (i.e., once there is herd immunity)? Rated from 1 “very optimistic” to 6 “very pessimistic.” Bars may not sum to 100%
due to rounding.
14 14 18 17
32
21
31
20
25
37
45 46
53 59
50
62
52 67
71
61
41 39
30 24 18 17 17 12
4 2
10
43
47
‘Optimistic’ change vs November
survey, percentage point
0
+9 +3 +6 +13 +7
+9 +4 +3 +5
+1
Mixed The economy will be
impacted for 6–12 months or
longer and will stagnate or show
slow growth thereafter
Pessimistic: COVID-19 will
have lasting impact on the
economy and show regression/
fall into lengthy recession
Optimistic: The economy will
rebound within 2–3 months and
grow just as strong as or
stronger than before COVID-19
Brazil
2/20–3/1
Germany
2/23–27
UK
2/23–27
Spain
2/23–27
Italy
2/23–27
France
2/23–27
Japan
2/24–27
US
2/18–22
India
2/20–3/3
China
2/20–3/8
Mexico
2/20–3/2
CURRENT AS OF MARCH 2, 2021
McKinsey & Company 3
Confidence in own country’s economic recovery after COVID-191
% of respondents
Optimism fluctuated during the early months of the pandemic, but
has increased in the last months
Increased overall optimism
Mixed: The economy will
be impacted for 6–12
months or longer and will
stagnate or show slow
growth thereafter
Pessimistic: COVID-19 will
have lasting impact on the
economy and show
regression / fall into lengthy
recession
Optimistic: The economy
will rebound within 2–3
months and grow just as
strong as or stronger than
before COVID-19
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Mexico Consumer Pulse Survey 2/20–3/2/2021, n = 1,048; 11/9–11/17/2020, n = 1,064; 9/21–9/28/2020, n = 1,008; 8/7–8/17/2020, n = 1,525; 7/3–7/13/2020, n = 1,500;
6/5–6/14/2020, n = 1,500; 5/22–5/31/2020, n = 1,500; 5/1–5/11/2020, n = 1,500; 4/10–4/17/2020, n = 1,506, sampled and weighted to match Mexico's general population 18+ years
1. Q: How is your overall confidence level in economic conditions after the COVID-19 situation? Rated from 1 “very optimistic” to 6 “very pessimistic”; figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding.
12% 15%
22%
10%
18% 15% 12% 12% 10%
58%
61%
53%
57%
52%
48% 53% 51%
43%
29%
24% 25%
33% 30%
37% 35% 38%
47%
Nov 9–17 Feb 20 –
Mar 2
Jul 3–13
May 22–31
May 1–11 Jun 5–14
Apr 10–17 Aug 7–17 Sep 21–28
Mexico
CURRENT AS OF MARCH 2, 2021
McKinsey & Company 4
Increased overall optimism
Reported household income, spending, and savings are similar to
the ones from November
Household income1
% of respondents
Household spending1
% of respondents
Household savings1
% of respondents
Reduce slightly / reduce a lot About the same Increase slightly / increase a lot
64%
Past 2 weeks
8% 7%
29%
Past 2 weeks
26%
Past 2 weeks
67%
5%
31%
64%
6%
18% 18%
5%
75%
Past 2 weeks Past 2 weeks
Past 2 weeks
77%
5%
18%
76%
38% 44% 42%
25%
24% 25%
37% 32% 33%
Past 2 weeks Past 2 weeks Past 2 weeks
Sept 21–28 Nov 9–17 Feb 20–
Mar 2
Sept 21–28 Nov 9–17 Sept 21–28 Nov 9–17
Feb 20–
Mar 2
Feb 20–
Mar 2
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Mexico Consumer Pulse Survey 2/20–3/2/2021, n = 1,048; 11/9–11/17/2020, n = 1,064; 9/21–9/28/2020, n = 1,008, sampled and weighted to match Mexico's
general population 18+ years
1. Q: How has the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis affected your (household) income, overall household spending and amount of income put away as savings over the past two weeks? Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding.
CURRENT AS OF MARCH 2, 2021
McKinsey & Company 5
Engagement in ‘normal’ out-of-home activities has not varied much
since September
Increased overall optimism
1. Q: Which best describes when you will regularly return to stores, restaurants, and other out-of-home activities? Chart shows those already participating in these activities.
2. Socioeconomic levels are defined as per the methodology used by the Mexican Association of Marketing Research and Public Opinion Agencies (AMAI).
3. Members of Gen Z were born from 1997–2012, millennials from 1981–1996, Gen X from 1965–1980, and baby boomers from 1946–1964. The traditionalist/silent generation is not included due to a low sample size.
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Mexico Consumer Pulse Survey 2/20–3/2/2021, n = 1,048; 11/9–11/17/2020, n = 1,064; 9/21–9/28/2020, n = 1,008; 8/7–8/17/2020, n = 1,525; 7/3–7/13/2020,
n = 1,500, sampled and weighted to match Mexico's general population 18+ years
Consumers engaging in “normal” out-of-home activities1
% of respondents
14
13
12
6
12
Feb 20
Aug 7
Nov 9
Sep 18
Jul 3
Overall
Baby
boomers
Gen X
Gen Z
10%
Millennials
17%
14% 13%
9%
D/E
13%
C+/C/C-/D+ A/B
15%
By generation3
By socioeconomic level2
~15%
of middle-class households are doing out-of-home
activities
~17%
of millennials are doing out-of-home activities
CURRENT AS OF MARCH 2, 2021
McKinsey & Company 6
Consumers will return to out-of-home activities once1 …
% of respondents awaiting each milestone before engaging
Most Mexicans are waiting for high vaccination coverage and the
lifting of restrictions before reengaging in out-of-home activities
31
22
28
19
Government
lifts restrictions
COVID-19 no
longer spreading
Vaccination
coverage
Government lifts
restrictions +
other requirements
86%
of people are not
currently engaging
in “normal” out-of-
home activities
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Mexico Consumer Pulse Survey 2/20–3/2/2021, n = 1,048, sampled and weighted to match Mexico's general population 18+ years
Vaccination coverage
Government lifts restrictions and…
1. Q: Which best describes when you will regularly return to stores, restaurants, and other out-of-home activities? Chart rebased to exclude those already participating in these activities and those who do not deem any of these items important.
Increased overall optimism
6%
Stores, restaurants, and other
indoor places start taking safety
measures
13%
Medical authorities deem safe
4%
I see other people returning
13%
Vaccine is widely distributed
11%
I have been vaccinated
4%
Family member(s) vaccinated
CURRENT AS OF MARCH 2, 2021
McKinsey & Company 7
Mexicans are eager to get together with family and friends
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Mexico Consumer Pulse Survey 2/20–3/2/2021, n = 1,048; 11/9–11/17/2020, n = 1,064, sampled and weighted to match Mexico's general population 18+ years
19%
16%
Get together with friends
15%
48%
Get together with family
Attend an indoor cultural event
Work outside my home
32%
18%
Go to a shopping mall
17%
Visit a crowded outdoor public place
Dine at a restaurant or bar
Attend an outdoor event
12%
12%
Go out for family entertainment
11%
Shop in person for grocery
-3
Change since Nov
(percentage point)
-9
N/A3
N/A3
-9
-16
N/A3
N/A3
-13
Top activities eager to get back to2
% of respondents for whom the activity is in their top 3 choices
N/A3
80%
shop in-person for groceries,
necessities
45%
work outside my home
Most prevalent activities
consumers are engaging in1
% of respondents who did activity
within last 2 weeks
1. Q: Did you leave your house for the following activities over the past two weeks? Top 2 most often-selected activities. Responder base comprised of those who answered as having done the activity at least once per year prior to COVID-19.
2. Q: Which of the following activities are you most eager to get back to on a regular basis? Please select the top 3 activities you miss the most.
3. Data not available or insufficient sample (n = < 50) in November 2020 survey.
Increased overall optimism CURRENT AS OF MARCH 2, 2021
McKinsey & Company 8
-7%
-3%
-7%
6%
-8%
-7%
0%
-7%
-1%
2%
-10%
0%
0%
1%
0%
1%
-1%
1%
0%
1%
1%
0%
4%
4%
-1%
-5%
1%
8%
-3%
3%
-2%
-3%
7%
1. Q: Which of the following activities are you most eager to get back to on a regular basis? Please select the top 3 activities you miss the most.
2. Index is calculated as the difference between income group and overall % of respondents.
3. Socioeconomic levels are defined as per the methodology used by the Mexican Association of Marketing Research and Public Opinion Agencies (AMAI).
Top activities consumers are eager to get back to1
% of respondents for whom the activity is in their top 3 choices Socioeconomic level3 overindexed or underindexed2
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Mexico Consumer Pulse Survey 2/20–3/2/2021, n = 1,048, sampled and weighted to match Mexico's general population 18+ years
Get together with friends
48%
Get together with family
Go out for family entertainment
32%
18%
Travel by airplane
19%
Go to a shopping mall
Work outside my home
17%
Visit a crowded outdoor public place
Dine at a restaurant or bar 16%
15%
Attend an outdoor event
12%
Attend an indoor cultural event
12%
11%
Shop in person for grocery
10%
Increased overall optimism
Compared to low-income groups, high-income consumers are more
eager to return to traveling and dining out
Overindexed (>+5%) Underindexed (<-5%)
Low
D/E
Medium
C+/C/C-/D+
High
A/B
CURRENT AS OF MARCH 2, 2021
McKinsey & Company 9
1. Q: Did you leave your house for the following activities over the past two weeks? Responder base comprised of those who have answered as having done the activity at least once per year prior to COVID-19.
2. Q: Once the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis subsides (i.e., once there is herd immunity), how do you think the amount of time you spend doing the following activities will change relative to how often you did them before COVID-19 began?
Possible answers: “I will not do this at all”; “I will do this less often than I did before COVID-19 started”; “I will do this about the same as I did before COVID-19”; “I will do this more than I did before COVID-19.” Net intent is calculated from
adding % of respondents stating they will do more or about the same and subtracting % of respondents stating they will do less or not at all.
Mexicans will likely prioritize shopping, going to the beauty salon,
and meeting family and friends once COVID-19 subsides
Out-of-home activities done in the past two weeks1
% of respondents
11%
80%
33%
41%
22%
44%
41%
5%
14%
6%
11%
Shop for non-necessities
Work outside my home
Travel by airplane
Shop for groceries/necessities
Go to a shopping mall
Travel more than 2 hrs by car
Use ride-sharing service
Use public transportation
Travel by train
Stay in a hotel
Rent a short-term home
15%
1%
4%
2%
10%
34%
9%
26%
11%
Attend an indoor cultural event
Use a ride-sharing service
Dine at a restaurant or bar
Go out for family entertainment
Get together with family
Attend an outdoor event
Go to a hair or nail salon
Visit a crowded outdoor public place
Get together with friends
+15
+12
+10
+11
+23
+11
+34
+24
+16
+35
+7
+28
+25
+12
+14
+9
+9
-1
Increased overall optimism
Net intent2
post-
COVID-192
Net intent
post-
COVID-192
Entertain-
ment
Personal
care
Transport/
travel
Shopping
Did this in past
2 weeks
Work
+9
+3
Social
Net intent: Above +1 Net intent: -15 to 0 Net intent: Below -15
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Mexico Consumer Pulse Survey 2/20–3/2/2021, n = 1,048, sampled and weighted to match Mexico's general population 18+ years
Did this in past
2 weeks
CURRENT AS OF MARCH 2, 2021
McKinsey & Company 10
Net intent: Above +1
Net intent: -15 to 0
Net intent: Below -15
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Mexico Consumer Pulse Survey 2/20–3/2/2021, n = 1,048; 11/9–11/17/2020, n = 1,064, sampled and weighted to match Mexico's general
population 18+ years
Expected spending per category over the next two weeks compared to usual1
% of respondents
Net
intent2
Net
intent2
+3
+3
-5
-1
+6
+6
+2
0
-1
-6
-32
-3
+2
+1
-2
-40
N/A3
N/A3
Change since
Nov 2020
Change since
Nov 2020
N/A3
+18
-7
+7
0
+1
+2
+17
+3
+17
-38
+8
+12
-21
+12
+20
+6
+5
8
45
45
58
58
62
58
58
77
77
55
16
46
71
60
60
29
22
8
8
14
9
8
Restaurant
Alcoholic beverages
6
Tobacco products
6
Toys & baby
Groceries
Quick-service restaurant
5
Food takeout & delivery 11
Home improvement & garden
7
6
Footwear
Apparel
6
Jewelry
4
Accessories
Household supplies
14
Personal-care products
Skin care & makeup
4
Home & furniture
5
Sports & outdoors
7
12
Kitchen & dining
Decrease
Stay the same
Increase
-70
+14
-47
-2
-67
-39
-34
-54
-51
-57
-52
-50
-73
-5
-38
-55
-52
-17
18
25
27
58
67
79
42
47
44
24
47
52
58
79
73
67
77
76
17
7
14
9
7
9
7
Hotel/resort stays
Personal-care services
Pet food & supplies
5
4
Adventures & tours
Vitamins & OTC medicine
5
10
Entertainment at home
Books/magazines/newspapers
6
Consumer electronics
3
Out-of-home entertainment
3
Pet-care services
Fitness & wellness
Domestic flights
5
Gasoline
Vehicles
Cruises
12
International flights
Short-term home rentals
Travel by car
5
5
-13
-17
-52
-61
-76
-39
-40
-39
-10
-39
-50
-74
-64
-60
-72
-72
-8
-38
1. Q: Over the next two weeks, do you expect that you will spend more, about the same, or less money on these categories than usual? Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding.
2. Net intent is calculated by subtracting the % of respondents stating they expect to decrease spending from the % of respondents stating they expect to increase spending.
3. Data not available or insufficient sample (n = < 50) in November 2020 survey.
Consumers still report negative netspend intent, but some
discretionary categories have increased since November
Signs of spend recovery CURRENT AS OF MARCH 2, 2021
McKinsey & Company 11
About 27 percent of Mexicans intend to splurge or treat themselves in
2021, especially younger generations and higher-income households
Expected leisure spend in 20211
% of respondents who plan to splurge or treat themselves
~27%
plan to splurge or treat
themselves
1. Q: With regard to products and services you will spend money on, do you plan to splurge/treat yourself in 2021?
2. Socioeconomic levels are defined as per the methodology used by the Mexican Association of Marketing Research and Public Opinion Agencies (AMAI).
3. Members of Gen Z were born from 1997–2012, millennials from 1981–1996, Gen X from 1965–1980, and baby boomers from 1946–1964. The traditionalist/silent generation is not included due to a low sample size.
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Mexico Consumer Pulse Survey 2/20–3/2/2021, n = 1,048, sampled and weighted to match Mexico's general population 18+ years
Signs of spend recovery
Gen Z
32%
Millennials Gen X
23%
Baby
boomers
33%
16%
27%
D/E
20%
A/B
C+/C/C-/D+
35%
By generation3
By socioeconomic level2
~35%
of more wealthy households
~33%
of Gen Z
CURRENT AS OF MARCH 2, 2021
McKinsey & Company 12
A spike in consumer spending on restaurants, travel, and beauty
and personal care is expected but will be spread out over time
45
44
44
34
32
30
30
29
4
Items for your home
Restaurants, dining out, bars
Travel, lodging, vacation
Beauty & personal care
Electronics
Fitness, sports, outdoors
Out-of-home entertainment
Household essentials
​Apparel, shoes, accessories
Expected leisure categories on which people
plan to splurge or treat themselves in 20211
% of respondents who plan to splurge or treat themselves
Trigger for when people plan to splurge or treat themselves2
% of respondents who plan to splurge or treat themselves on that category
48
49
34
42
42
45
39
51
42
14
13
24
29
14
22
25
8
24
29
26
28
20
30
20
24
23
23
10
13
14
10
14
13
13
18
12
Restrictions lifted / COVID-19 stops spreading
Family is vaccinated
Anytime
I am vaccinated
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Mexico Consumer Pulse Survey 2/20–3/2/2021, n = 1,048, sampled and weighted to match Mexico's general population 18+ years
Signs of spend recovery
1. Q: You mentioned that you plan to splurge/treat yourself in 2021. Which categories do you intent to treat yourself to? Please select all that apply.
2. Q: Which best describes when you will most likely splurge/treat yourself? Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding.
CURRENT AS OF MARCH 2, 2021
McKinsey & Company 13
More than 60 percent of splurge spend will come from money that
consumers have on hand, especially in older generations
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Mexico Consumer Pulse Survey 2/20–3/2/2021, n = 1,048, sampled and weighted to match Mexico's general population 18+ years
>50%
<20% 36–50%
21–35%
Signs of spend recovery
Financing source of splurge spend,1
% average of respondents who plan to spend, by generation
51% 68% 69% 73% 65%
59% 52% 48% 50% 52%
37% 30% 36% 27% 32%
20% 22% 22% 27% 23%
Gen Z Millennials Gen X Baby boomers
From available budget
By reducing spend
elsewhere
From savings
By using credit or a buy
now, pay later option
Avg. by
financing
source3
Generation2
1. Q: For your future splurge on previously selected items, how do you intend to pay? Please select the answer that best represents your situation.
2. Members of Gen Z were born from 1997–2012, millennials from 1981–1996, Gen X from 1965–1980, and baby boomers from 1946–1964. The traditionalist/silent generation is not included due to a low sample size.
3. Total respondents, average of answers on all splurge categories.
CURRENT AS OF MARCH 2, 2021
McKinsey & Company 14
While consumers expect to spend less after COVID-19, many
categories see recoveries compared with the current intent to spend
Signs of spend recovery
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Mexico Consumer Pulse Survey 2/20–3/2/2021, n = 1,048, sampled and weighted to match Mexico's general population 18+ years
1. Q: Over the next two weeks, do you expect that you will spend more, about the same, or less money on these categories than usual? Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding.
2. Q: Once the COVID-19 crisis subsides (i.e., once there is herd immunity), do you expect that you will spend more, about the same, or less money on these categories than during the COVID-19 pandemic? Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding.
3. Net intent is calculated by subtracting the % of respondents stating they expect to decrease spending from the % of respondents stating they expect to increase spending.
-18
-52
Net Intent3
Next 2
weeks
Post
COVID Evolution
Pet food & supplies -13 -6
Vitamins & OTC medicine -8 -1
Domestic flights -72 +3
Hotel/resort stays -72 -14
Adventures & tours -64 -3
Out-of-home entertainment -76 -4
Pet-care services -39 -16
Fitness & wellness -40 0
Personal-care services -39 -13
Gasoline -10 +18
Short-term home rentals -39 -19
Cruises -74 -44
Travel by car -50 0
International flights -60 +7
Books/magazines/newspapers -52 -31
Consumer electronics -61 -36
Entertainment at home -17 -14
Vehicles -38
Expected spending per category over the next two weeks1 compared to post COVID-192
% of respondents
Net Intent3
Post
COVID
Next 2
weeks Evolution
Groceries +4
+14
Toys & baby -29
-47
Tobacco products -40
-39
Food takeout & delivery -37
-34
Alcoholic beverages -32
-54
Accessories -43
-73
Household supplies 0
-2
Apparel -16
-50
Quick-service restaurant -30
-51
Footwear -18
-52
Home improvement & gardening -26
Restaurant -9
-57
Personal-care products -1
-5
Skin care & makeup -13
-38
Sports & outdoors -17
-55
Home & furniture -37
-67
Jewelry -48
-70
Kitchen & dining -10
-17
-15 to 0 Below -15
Above +1 Below 0
Above +25 +15 to +25 0 to +15
CURRENT AS OF MARCH 2, 2021
McKinsey & Company 15
50
45
75
-4
-10
40
-8
-9 8
-5
-7
25
35
30
0
70
65
-6 7
-3 -2 6
20
-1
60
1 5
2 3 4
55
80
85
90
Home improvement
Restaurant
Household supplies
Groceries
Food takeout & delivery
Apparel
Alcoholic beverages
Pet-care services
Books
Footwear
Accessories Jewelry
Kitchen
Personal-care products
Skin care
Home decoration
Personal-care services
Fitness & wellness services
Sports & outdoors equipment
Vitamins & OTC medicine
Toys & baby supplies
Pet supplies
Consumer electronics
Home decor & furniture
1. Q: Will you continue to purchase these categories online after the COVID-19 situation subsides (i.e., once there is herd immunity)? Possible answers: “no, I will stop purchasing online altogether”; “buy less online”; “buy about the same amount
online”; and “buy more online.” Number indicates net intent, calculated by subtracting % of respondents stating they expect to decrease or stop use from % of respondents stating they expect to increase or maintain use.
2. Q: Have you purchased the following categories online since the coronavirus (COVID-19) began? Please select yes or no for each category. Includes % respondents who selected “Yes” for the category.
Note: Thresholds of categories are defined by the terciles. The 1st tercile of Intent occurs at -2%, and the 2nd occurs at 0%.
Overall, Mexican consumers don’t anticipate much change in their
online purchasing behavior compared with what they are doing now
Digital is here to stay
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Mexico Consumer Pulse Survey 2/20–3/2/2021, n = 1,048, sampled and weighted to match Mexico's general population 18+ years
Sustained shift to online
Greater online presence
Less-accelerated online shift
Net intent to continue to purchase online after COVID-191
Percent of users who intend to keep doing activity after COVID-19 at same or higher level
Penetration
since
COVID-19
2
CURRENT AS OF MARCH 2, 2021
McKinsey & Company 16
1. Q: Have you used or done any of the following since the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis started? If yes, Q: Which best describes when you have done or used each of these items? Possible answers: “just started using since COVID-19 started”;
“using more since COVID-19 started”; “using about the same since COVID-19 started”; “using less since COVID-19 started.”
2. Q: Compared to now, will you do or use the following more, less, or not at all, once the coronavirus (COVID-19) ) crisis subsides (i.e., once there is herd immunity)? Possible answers: “will stop this”; ”will reduce this”; “will keep doing what I am
doing now”; “will increase this.” Number indicates respondents who chose “will keep doing what I am doing now” and “will increase this” among new or increased users. Number indicates respondents who chose “will keep doing what I am
doing now” and “will increase this” among new or increased users.
8%
4%
2%
2%
3%
5%
2%
2%
5%
2%
3%
7%
7%
1%
22%
21%
9%
6%
7%
11%
7%
7%
15%
6%
13%
13%
14%
3%
7%
10%
4%
3%
3%
4%
4%
5%
9%
5%
8%
5%
7%
2%
Restaurant delivery
Grocery delivery
Pay more for two-hour delivery
Meal-kit delivery
Purchased directly from social media
Pay more for same-day delivery
Quick-serve restaurant drive-thru
Store curbside pickup
In-store self-checkout
Used deal-finding plug-ins
Restaurant curbside pickup
Buy online for in-store pickup
Used a new store/restaurant app
Purchased pre-owned products
Using same/less Just started using
Using more
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Mexico Consumer Pulse Survey 2/20–3/2/2021, n = 1,048, sampled and weighted to match Mexico's general population 18+ years
46%
47%
43%
47%
80%
37%
56%
37%
52%
64%
59%
62%
39%
31%
Mexicans continue to try pickup and delivery services for the first
time, and to intensify their usage of them
Digital is here to stay
Have you used or done any of the following since COVID-19 started1
% of respondents currently using/doing
Intent to
continue,2 %
CURRENT AS OF MARCH 2, 2021
McKinsey & Company 17
50
65 70
40 60 80
0 37 45 75
100
50 55 81
0
Purchased pre-owned products online
Quick-serve
restaurant
drive-thru
Buy online for in-store pickup
Restaurant delivery
Deal-finding plug-ins
Meal-kit delivery
In-store self-checkout
Store curbside pickup
New store/restaurant app
Purchased from social media
Grocery delivery
Restaurant curbside pickup
Intent to use after COVID-191 – Percent of new or increased users who intend to keep doing activity after COVID-19
1. Q: Compared to now, will you do or use the following more, less, or not at all, once the coronavirus (COVID-19) ) crisis subsides (i.e., once there is herd immunity)? Possible answers: “will stop this”; ”will reduce this”; “will keep doing what I am
doing now”; “will increase this.” Number indicates respondents who chose “will keep doing what I am doing now” and “will increase this” among new or increased users.
2. User growth is calculated as % of respondents who replied that they are new users over % of respondents who replied that they were using the product/service pre-COVID-19 (using more, using the same, or using less).
Note: Thresholds of categories are set at the median value. Intent median = 50%, growth median = 41%.
Consumers say curbside pickup services work for now; just about
one third report intending to continue after COVID-19
Digital is here to stay
Accelerated shifts
Potentially here to stay
Works for now
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Mexico Consumer Pulse Survey 2/20–3/2/2021, n = 1,048, sampled and weighted to match Mexico's general population 18+ years
Use
growth
since
COVID-19
2
CURRENT AS OF MARCH 2, 2021
McKinsey & Company 18
Mexicans have acquired at-home alternatives to out-of-home
activities, such as social media, video chat, and cooking
Digital is here to stay
15%
3%
6%
4%
2%
3%
25%
9%
6%
6%
14%
10%
37%
19%
29%
15%
13%
2%
7%
6%
2%
2%
44%
14%
12%
11%
32%
11%
6%
10%
13%
9%
12%
2%
5%
4%
1%
1%
6%
5%
14%
4%
7%
5%
2%
Video chat: personal
Online streaming
Videoconferencing: professional
Remote learning: myself
Remote learning: my children
1%
1%
Telemedicine: physical
Online fitness
Wellness app
Watching e-sports
Telemedicine: mental
2%
Digital exercise machine
Social media
Playing online games
TikTok
Cooked regularly for myself/my family
Personal care/grooming at home
Using more
Just started using Using same/less
69%
56%
53%
66%
56%
51%
65%
88%
49%
63%
55%
87%
62%
41%
41%
62%
1. Q: Have you used or done any of the following since the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis started? If yes, Q: Which best describes when you have done or used each of these items? Possible answers: “just started using since COVID-19 started”;
“using more since COVID-19 started”; “using about the same since COVID-19 started”; “using less since COVID-19 started.”
2. Q: Compared to now, will you do or use the following more, less, or not at all, once the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis subsides (i.e., once there is herd immunity)? Possible answers: “will stop this”; ”will reduce this”; “will keep doing what I am
doing now”; “will increase this.” Number indicates respondents who chose “will keep doing what I am doing now” and “will increase this” among new or increased users.
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Mexico Consumer Pulse Survey 2/20–3/2/2021, n = 1,048, sampled and weighted to match Mexico's general population 18+ years
Intent to
continue2 %
Have you used or done any of the following since COVID-19 started1
% of respondents currently using/doing
CURRENT AS OF MARCH 2, 2021
McKinsey & Company 19
46
42
38 40
40
25
32 36 78
50
34 44 86
48
60
75
66
52 54
15
56 58 60
70
62 64 80
68
5
70 72
80
74 76 82 84 88 90
35
0
45
10
20
30
50
55
65
TikTok
Watching e-sports
Digital exercise machine
Used social media
Online fitness
Telemedicine: physical
Videoconferencing: professional
Telemedicine: mental
Remote learning: myself
Remote learning: my children
Cooked regularly
Video chat: personal
Wellness app
Playing online games Personal care / grooming at home
Online streaming
1. Q: Compared to now, will you do or use the following more, less, or not at all, once the coronavirus (COVID-19) ) crisis subsides (i.e., once there is herd immunity)? Possible answers: “will stop this”; ”will reduce this”; “will keep doing what I am
doing now”; “will increase this.” Number indicates respondents who chose “will keep doing what I am doing now” and “will increase this” among new or increased users.
2. Q. Which best describes when you have done or used each of these items? Possible answers included: “just started using since coronavirus started”; “using more since coronavirus started”; “using less since coronavirus started”; “using about
the same since coronavirus started.” Possible answers not included: “not using.”
3. User growth is calculated as % of respondents who replied that they are new users over % of respondents who replied that they were using the product/service pre-COVID-19 (using more, using the same, or using less).
Note: Thresholds of categories are set at the median value. Penetration median = 27%, intent to use median = 59%.
Remote learning and online fitness/wellness habits adopted during
the crisis are likely to remain for the medium to long term
Digital is here to stay
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Mexico Consumer Pulse Survey 2/20–3/2/2021, n = 1,048, sampled and weighted to match Mexico's general population 18+ years
Niche and loyal
No real shift since
COVID-19
Universally popular
Intent to use after COVID-191
Percent of new or increased users who intend to keep doing activity after COVID-19
Niche behaviors
but growing fast
with very loyal
consumers who
want to continue
using it
post-COVID-19
Big surge during
COVID-19, but
not enough
penetration or
intent to fully stick
User growth3: 0-19% User growth: 20-39% User growth: 40-59% User growth: 60%+
New behaviors
spurred by COVID-19
Penetration
since
COVID-19
2
CURRENT AS OF MARCH 2, 2021
McKinsey & Company 20
Forty-six percent of consumers worked more from home and 26
percent set up a specific space at home to do so
Reinvestment in the home
1. Q: Which of the following have you done in the last 12 months as a result of the COVID-19 crisis? 23% answered “None of these.”
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Mexico Consumer Pulse Survey 2/20–3/2/2021, n = 1,048, sampled and weighted to match Mexico's general population 18+ years
5%
Permanently moved to a new city
Permanently moved to the suburbs
6%
Worked more from home
Permanently moved to the countryside
Decided to change jobs
Went back to school
Permanently moved in with family
Renovated/remodeled my home
Moved into a smaller home
Got a new pet at home (e.g., dog, cat)
Moved into a bigger home
Set up a specific work from home space
Set up a gym at home
Reassessed my investment portfolio 10%
Bought a car
Sold a property
Bought a property
46%
9%
4%
2%
1%
2%
5%
2%
26%
19%
11%
3%
1%
15%
21%
are A/B
socioeconomic level
vs sample of 16%
Pet adoption 15%
Work/study
change
54%
House move 14%
Home
renovation
39%
Investments/
Divestments
17%
Main life events done in the last 12 months as a result of COVID-191
% of respondents
CURRENT AS OF MARCH 2, 2021
McKinsey & Company 21
Most Mexicans say they have tried a new shopping behavior during
the pandemic, which they say they now do occasionally
Continued loyalty disruption
8%
6%
5%
6%
4%
30%
31%
33%
28%
23%
4%
3%
4%
New digital shopping method
38%
Different retailer/store/website
42%
1%
2%
New shopping method3
Different brand
Private label/store brand
40%
39%
29%
82%
of consumers have
tried a new shopping
behavior which they
now do regularly
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Mexico Consumer Pulse Survey 2/20–3/2/2021, n = 1,048, sampled and weighted to match Mexico's general population 18+ years
Just once Sometimes Regularly
~86%
of millennials and
Gen Z have tried a
new shopping
behavior
1. Q: Since the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis started, which of the following have you done? 18% consumers selected “none of these.”
2. Q: Which best describes whether or not you plan to continue with these shopping changes once the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis has subsided (i.e., once there is herd immunity)? Possible answers: “will go back to what I did before
coronavirus”; “will keep doing both this and what I did before coronavirus”; “will keep doing this and NOT go back to what I did before coronavirus.”
3. “New shopping method” includes curbside pickup and delivery apps.
4. Intent to continue includes respondents who selected “will keep doing both this and what I did before coronavirus” and “will keep doing this and NOT go back to what I did before coronavirus.”
Have you done any of the following since COVID-19 started and how often1,2
% of respondents
83%
85%
81%
80%
84%
Intent to
continue4
CURRENT AS OF MARCH 2, 2021
McKinsey & Company 22
About 60 percent of consumers cite convenience and value as top
drivers for trying new stores; ~48% of millennials look for ‘purpose’
1. Q: You mentioned you shopped from a new retailer/store/website since the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis started. What were the main reasons you decided to try this new retailer/store/website? Select up to three. Overarching reason based on
% of individual respondents responding to at least one reason in the group.
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Mexico Consumer Pulse Survey 2/20–3/2/2021, n = 1,048, sampled and weighted to match Mexico's general population 18+ years
Continued loyalty disruption
Reason for shopping at a new retailer/store/website since COVID-19 began1
% of respondents selecting reason in top three
31%
26%
23%
22%
22%
18%
14%
29%
7%
3%
1%
20%
12%
7%
5%
10%
9%
Supporting local businesses
Offers good delivery/pickup options
Better prices/promotions
More easily accessible from my home
Better value
Better quality
Better shipping/delivery costs
Less crowded / has shorter lines
Can get all the items I need from one place
Has more sustainable / environmentally friendly options
The company treats its employees well
Shares my values
Products are in stock
Wanted to treat myself
Offers natural/organic options
Wanted variety/change from my normal routine
Cleaner / has better hygiene measures
Net % of respondents per category
X%
48%
are millennials vs
sample of 39%
20%
have A/B
socioeconomic
level vs sample of
16%
Value 62%
Availability 20%
Convenience 59%
Purpose-driven 36%
Quality/organic 17%
Health/hygiene 9%
Personal choice 16%
CURRENT AS OF MARCH 2, 2021
McKinsey & Company 23
1. Q: You mentioned you tried a new/different brand than what you normally buy. What were the main reasons that drove this decision? Select all that apply. “Brand” includes different brand, new private label/store brand. Overarching reason
based on % of individual respondents responding to at least one reason in the group.
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Mexico Consumer Pulse Survey 2/20–3/2/2021, n = 1,048, sampled and weighted to match Mexico's general population 18+ years
Reason for trying a new brand since COVID-19 began1
% of respondents selecting reason in top three
Alongside value and novelty, purpose is a top factor for trying new
brands, with Gen X consumers emphasizing it more
Continued loyalty disruption
Value 71%
Quality/organic 32%
Novelty 40%
Availability 18%
Purpose-driven 37%
Personal choice 24%
Health/hygiene 13%
Convenience 18%
33%
are Gen X vs
sample of 26%
Net % of respondents per category
X%
Better shipping/delivery costs
36%
27%
49%
Better prices/promotions
10%
Better value
18%
Larger package sizes
26%
61%
Wanted to try a new brand I found
20%
24%
Is natural/organic
Shares my values
Wanted to try a type of product I’ve never tried before
15%
Supporting local businesses
12%
Is more sustainable / better for the environment
5%
4%
The company treats its employees well
18%
Better quality
16%
Wanted variety/change from my normal routine
11%
Wanted to treat myself
Is available where I’m shopping
Products are in stock
13%
Cleaner / has better hygiene measures
CURRENT AS OF MARCH 2, 2021
McKinsey & Company 24
Disclaimer
McKinsey does not provide legal, medical, or other regulated advice or guarantee results. These
materials reflect general insight and best practice based on information currently available and do
not contain all of the information needed to determine a future course of action. Such information
has not been generated or independently verified by McKinsey and is inherently uncertain and
subject to change. McKinsey has no obligation to update these materials and makes no
representation or warranty and expressly disclaims any liability with respect thereto.

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McKinsey Survey: Mexican consumer sentiment during the coronavirus crisis

  • 1. McKinsey & Company 1 There have been five fundamental shifts in consumer behavior, some of which will likely have a lasting impact 3. Digital is here to stay Over 50% intend to continue using virtual conferencing and learning 2. Signs of spend recovery 27% of consumers expect to splurge or treat themselves in 2021 5. Continued loyalty disruption 82% of consumers have tried a new shopping behavior which they now do regularly 4. Reinvestment in the home 26% of consumers have created a dedicated work-from-home space 47% of consumers feel optimistic about the economic recovery 1. Increased overall optimism Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Mexico Consumer Pulse Survey 2/20–3/2/2021, n = 1,048, sampled and weighted to match Mexico's general population 18+ years CURRENT AS OF MARCH 2, 2021
  • 2. McKinsey & Company 2 Confidence in own country’s economic recovery after COVID-191 % of respondents Mexican consumers are more optimistic than consumers in Europe and the United States, but less so than Indian or Chinese consumers Increased overall optimism Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Consumer Pulse Survey 1. Q: What is your overall confidence level surrounding economic conditions after the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis subsides (i.e., once there is herd immunity)? Rated from 1 “very optimistic” to 6 “very pessimistic.” Bars may not sum to 100% due to rounding. 14 14 18 17 32 21 31 20 25 37 45 46 53 59 50 62 52 67 71 61 41 39 30 24 18 17 17 12 4 2 10 43 47 ‘Optimistic’ change vs November survey, percentage point 0 +9 +3 +6 +13 +7 +9 +4 +3 +5 +1 Mixed The economy will be impacted for 6–12 months or longer and will stagnate or show slow growth thereafter Pessimistic: COVID-19 will have lasting impact on the economy and show regression/ fall into lengthy recession Optimistic: The economy will rebound within 2–3 months and grow just as strong as or stronger than before COVID-19 Brazil 2/20–3/1 Germany 2/23–27 UK 2/23–27 Spain 2/23–27 Italy 2/23–27 France 2/23–27 Japan 2/24–27 US 2/18–22 India 2/20–3/3 China 2/20–3/8 Mexico 2/20–3/2 CURRENT AS OF MARCH 2, 2021
  • 3. McKinsey & Company 3 Confidence in own country’s economic recovery after COVID-191 % of respondents Optimism fluctuated during the early months of the pandemic, but has increased in the last months Increased overall optimism Mixed: The economy will be impacted for 6–12 months or longer and will stagnate or show slow growth thereafter Pessimistic: COVID-19 will have lasting impact on the economy and show regression / fall into lengthy recession Optimistic: The economy will rebound within 2–3 months and grow just as strong as or stronger than before COVID-19 Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Mexico Consumer Pulse Survey 2/20–3/2/2021, n = 1,048; 11/9–11/17/2020, n = 1,064; 9/21–9/28/2020, n = 1,008; 8/7–8/17/2020, n = 1,525; 7/3–7/13/2020, n = 1,500; 6/5–6/14/2020, n = 1,500; 5/22–5/31/2020, n = 1,500; 5/1–5/11/2020, n = 1,500; 4/10–4/17/2020, n = 1,506, sampled and weighted to match Mexico's general population 18+ years 1. Q: How is your overall confidence level in economic conditions after the COVID-19 situation? Rated from 1 “very optimistic” to 6 “very pessimistic”; figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding. 12% 15% 22% 10% 18% 15% 12% 12% 10% 58% 61% 53% 57% 52% 48% 53% 51% 43% 29% 24% 25% 33% 30% 37% 35% 38% 47% Nov 9–17 Feb 20 – Mar 2 Jul 3–13 May 22–31 May 1–11 Jun 5–14 Apr 10–17 Aug 7–17 Sep 21–28 Mexico CURRENT AS OF MARCH 2, 2021
  • 4. McKinsey & Company 4 Increased overall optimism Reported household income, spending, and savings are similar to the ones from November Household income1 % of respondents Household spending1 % of respondents Household savings1 % of respondents Reduce slightly / reduce a lot About the same Increase slightly / increase a lot 64% Past 2 weeks 8% 7% 29% Past 2 weeks 26% Past 2 weeks 67% 5% 31% 64% 6% 18% 18% 5% 75% Past 2 weeks Past 2 weeks Past 2 weeks 77% 5% 18% 76% 38% 44% 42% 25% 24% 25% 37% 32% 33% Past 2 weeks Past 2 weeks Past 2 weeks Sept 21–28 Nov 9–17 Feb 20– Mar 2 Sept 21–28 Nov 9–17 Sept 21–28 Nov 9–17 Feb 20– Mar 2 Feb 20– Mar 2 Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Mexico Consumer Pulse Survey 2/20–3/2/2021, n = 1,048; 11/9–11/17/2020, n = 1,064; 9/21–9/28/2020, n = 1,008, sampled and weighted to match Mexico's general population 18+ years 1. Q: How has the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis affected your (household) income, overall household spending and amount of income put away as savings over the past two weeks? Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding. CURRENT AS OF MARCH 2, 2021
  • 5. McKinsey & Company 5 Engagement in ‘normal’ out-of-home activities has not varied much since September Increased overall optimism 1. Q: Which best describes when you will regularly return to stores, restaurants, and other out-of-home activities? Chart shows those already participating in these activities. 2. Socioeconomic levels are defined as per the methodology used by the Mexican Association of Marketing Research and Public Opinion Agencies (AMAI). 3. Members of Gen Z were born from 1997–2012, millennials from 1981–1996, Gen X from 1965–1980, and baby boomers from 1946–1964. The traditionalist/silent generation is not included due to a low sample size. Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Mexico Consumer Pulse Survey 2/20–3/2/2021, n = 1,048; 11/9–11/17/2020, n = 1,064; 9/21–9/28/2020, n = 1,008; 8/7–8/17/2020, n = 1,525; 7/3–7/13/2020, n = 1,500, sampled and weighted to match Mexico's general population 18+ years Consumers engaging in “normal” out-of-home activities1 % of respondents 14 13 12 6 12 Feb 20 Aug 7 Nov 9 Sep 18 Jul 3 Overall Baby boomers Gen X Gen Z 10% Millennials 17% 14% 13% 9% D/E 13% C+/C/C-/D+ A/B 15% By generation3 By socioeconomic level2 ~15% of middle-class households are doing out-of-home activities ~17% of millennials are doing out-of-home activities CURRENT AS OF MARCH 2, 2021
  • 6. McKinsey & Company 6 Consumers will return to out-of-home activities once1 … % of respondents awaiting each milestone before engaging Most Mexicans are waiting for high vaccination coverage and the lifting of restrictions before reengaging in out-of-home activities 31 22 28 19 Government lifts restrictions COVID-19 no longer spreading Vaccination coverage Government lifts restrictions + other requirements 86% of people are not currently engaging in “normal” out-of- home activities Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Mexico Consumer Pulse Survey 2/20–3/2/2021, n = 1,048, sampled and weighted to match Mexico's general population 18+ years Vaccination coverage Government lifts restrictions and… 1. Q: Which best describes when you will regularly return to stores, restaurants, and other out-of-home activities? Chart rebased to exclude those already participating in these activities and those who do not deem any of these items important. Increased overall optimism 6% Stores, restaurants, and other indoor places start taking safety measures 13% Medical authorities deem safe 4% I see other people returning 13% Vaccine is widely distributed 11% I have been vaccinated 4% Family member(s) vaccinated CURRENT AS OF MARCH 2, 2021
  • 7. McKinsey & Company 7 Mexicans are eager to get together with family and friends Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Mexico Consumer Pulse Survey 2/20–3/2/2021, n = 1,048; 11/9–11/17/2020, n = 1,064, sampled and weighted to match Mexico's general population 18+ years 19% 16% Get together with friends 15% 48% Get together with family Attend an indoor cultural event Work outside my home 32% 18% Go to a shopping mall 17% Visit a crowded outdoor public place Dine at a restaurant or bar Attend an outdoor event 12% 12% Go out for family entertainment 11% Shop in person for grocery -3 Change since Nov (percentage point) -9 N/A3 N/A3 -9 -16 N/A3 N/A3 -13 Top activities eager to get back to2 % of respondents for whom the activity is in their top 3 choices N/A3 80% shop in-person for groceries, necessities 45% work outside my home Most prevalent activities consumers are engaging in1 % of respondents who did activity within last 2 weeks 1. Q: Did you leave your house for the following activities over the past two weeks? Top 2 most often-selected activities. Responder base comprised of those who answered as having done the activity at least once per year prior to COVID-19. 2. Q: Which of the following activities are you most eager to get back to on a regular basis? Please select the top 3 activities you miss the most. 3. Data not available or insufficient sample (n = < 50) in November 2020 survey. Increased overall optimism CURRENT AS OF MARCH 2, 2021
  • 8. McKinsey & Company 8 -7% -3% -7% 6% -8% -7% 0% -7% -1% 2% -10% 0% 0% 1% 0% 1% -1% 1% 0% 1% 1% 0% 4% 4% -1% -5% 1% 8% -3% 3% -2% -3% 7% 1. Q: Which of the following activities are you most eager to get back to on a regular basis? Please select the top 3 activities you miss the most. 2. Index is calculated as the difference between income group and overall % of respondents. 3. Socioeconomic levels are defined as per the methodology used by the Mexican Association of Marketing Research and Public Opinion Agencies (AMAI). Top activities consumers are eager to get back to1 % of respondents for whom the activity is in their top 3 choices Socioeconomic level3 overindexed or underindexed2 Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Mexico Consumer Pulse Survey 2/20–3/2/2021, n = 1,048, sampled and weighted to match Mexico's general population 18+ years Get together with friends 48% Get together with family Go out for family entertainment 32% 18% Travel by airplane 19% Go to a shopping mall Work outside my home 17% Visit a crowded outdoor public place Dine at a restaurant or bar 16% 15% Attend an outdoor event 12% Attend an indoor cultural event 12% 11% Shop in person for grocery 10% Increased overall optimism Compared to low-income groups, high-income consumers are more eager to return to traveling and dining out Overindexed (>+5%) Underindexed (<-5%) Low D/E Medium C+/C/C-/D+ High A/B CURRENT AS OF MARCH 2, 2021
  • 9. McKinsey & Company 9 1. Q: Did you leave your house for the following activities over the past two weeks? Responder base comprised of those who have answered as having done the activity at least once per year prior to COVID-19. 2. Q: Once the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis subsides (i.e., once there is herd immunity), how do you think the amount of time you spend doing the following activities will change relative to how often you did them before COVID-19 began? Possible answers: “I will not do this at all”; “I will do this less often than I did before COVID-19 started”; “I will do this about the same as I did before COVID-19”; “I will do this more than I did before COVID-19.” Net intent is calculated from adding % of respondents stating they will do more or about the same and subtracting % of respondents stating they will do less or not at all. Mexicans will likely prioritize shopping, going to the beauty salon, and meeting family and friends once COVID-19 subsides Out-of-home activities done in the past two weeks1 % of respondents 11% 80% 33% 41% 22% 44% 41% 5% 14% 6% 11% Shop for non-necessities Work outside my home Travel by airplane Shop for groceries/necessities Go to a shopping mall Travel more than 2 hrs by car Use ride-sharing service Use public transportation Travel by train Stay in a hotel Rent a short-term home 15% 1% 4% 2% 10% 34% 9% 26% 11% Attend an indoor cultural event Use a ride-sharing service Dine at a restaurant or bar Go out for family entertainment Get together with family Attend an outdoor event Go to a hair or nail salon Visit a crowded outdoor public place Get together with friends +15 +12 +10 +11 +23 +11 +34 +24 +16 +35 +7 +28 +25 +12 +14 +9 +9 -1 Increased overall optimism Net intent2 post- COVID-192 Net intent post- COVID-192 Entertain- ment Personal care Transport/ travel Shopping Did this in past 2 weeks Work +9 +3 Social Net intent: Above +1 Net intent: -15 to 0 Net intent: Below -15 Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Mexico Consumer Pulse Survey 2/20–3/2/2021, n = 1,048, sampled and weighted to match Mexico's general population 18+ years Did this in past 2 weeks CURRENT AS OF MARCH 2, 2021
  • 10. McKinsey & Company 10 Net intent: Above +1 Net intent: -15 to 0 Net intent: Below -15 Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Mexico Consumer Pulse Survey 2/20–3/2/2021, n = 1,048; 11/9–11/17/2020, n = 1,064, sampled and weighted to match Mexico's general population 18+ years Expected spending per category over the next two weeks compared to usual1 % of respondents Net intent2 Net intent2 +3 +3 -5 -1 +6 +6 +2 0 -1 -6 -32 -3 +2 +1 -2 -40 N/A3 N/A3 Change since Nov 2020 Change since Nov 2020 N/A3 +18 -7 +7 0 +1 +2 +17 +3 +17 -38 +8 +12 -21 +12 +20 +6 +5 8 45 45 58 58 62 58 58 77 77 55 16 46 71 60 60 29 22 8 8 14 9 8 Restaurant Alcoholic beverages 6 Tobacco products 6 Toys & baby Groceries Quick-service restaurant 5 Food takeout & delivery 11 Home improvement & garden 7 6 Footwear Apparel 6 Jewelry 4 Accessories Household supplies 14 Personal-care products Skin care & makeup 4 Home & furniture 5 Sports & outdoors 7 12 Kitchen & dining Decrease Stay the same Increase -70 +14 -47 -2 -67 -39 -34 -54 -51 -57 -52 -50 -73 -5 -38 -55 -52 -17 18 25 27 58 67 79 42 47 44 24 47 52 58 79 73 67 77 76 17 7 14 9 7 9 7 Hotel/resort stays Personal-care services Pet food & supplies 5 4 Adventures & tours Vitamins & OTC medicine 5 10 Entertainment at home Books/magazines/newspapers 6 Consumer electronics 3 Out-of-home entertainment 3 Pet-care services Fitness & wellness Domestic flights 5 Gasoline Vehicles Cruises 12 International flights Short-term home rentals Travel by car 5 5 -13 -17 -52 -61 -76 -39 -40 -39 -10 -39 -50 -74 -64 -60 -72 -72 -8 -38 1. Q: Over the next two weeks, do you expect that you will spend more, about the same, or less money on these categories than usual? Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding. 2. Net intent is calculated by subtracting the % of respondents stating they expect to decrease spending from the % of respondents stating they expect to increase spending. 3. Data not available or insufficient sample (n = < 50) in November 2020 survey. Consumers still report negative netspend intent, but some discretionary categories have increased since November Signs of spend recovery CURRENT AS OF MARCH 2, 2021
  • 11. McKinsey & Company 11 About 27 percent of Mexicans intend to splurge or treat themselves in 2021, especially younger generations and higher-income households Expected leisure spend in 20211 % of respondents who plan to splurge or treat themselves ~27% plan to splurge or treat themselves 1. Q: With regard to products and services you will spend money on, do you plan to splurge/treat yourself in 2021? 2. Socioeconomic levels are defined as per the methodology used by the Mexican Association of Marketing Research and Public Opinion Agencies (AMAI). 3. Members of Gen Z were born from 1997–2012, millennials from 1981–1996, Gen X from 1965–1980, and baby boomers from 1946–1964. The traditionalist/silent generation is not included due to a low sample size. Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Mexico Consumer Pulse Survey 2/20–3/2/2021, n = 1,048, sampled and weighted to match Mexico's general population 18+ years Signs of spend recovery Gen Z 32% Millennials Gen X 23% Baby boomers 33% 16% 27% D/E 20% A/B C+/C/C-/D+ 35% By generation3 By socioeconomic level2 ~35% of more wealthy households ~33% of Gen Z CURRENT AS OF MARCH 2, 2021
  • 12. McKinsey & Company 12 A spike in consumer spending on restaurants, travel, and beauty and personal care is expected but will be spread out over time 45 44 44 34 32 30 30 29 4 Items for your home Restaurants, dining out, bars Travel, lodging, vacation Beauty & personal care Electronics Fitness, sports, outdoors Out-of-home entertainment Household essentials ​Apparel, shoes, accessories Expected leisure categories on which people plan to splurge or treat themselves in 20211 % of respondents who plan to splurge or treat themselves Trigger for when people plan to splurge or treat themselves2 % of respondents who plan to splurge or treat themselves on that category 48 49 34 42 42 45 39 51 42 14 13 24 29 14 22 25 8 24 29 26 28 20 30 20 24 23 23 10 13 14 10 14 13 13 18 12 Restrictions lifted / COVID-19 stops spreading Family is vaccinated Anytime I am vaccinated Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Mexico Consumer Pulse Survey 2/20–3/2/2021, n = 1,048, sampled and weighted to match Mexico's general population 18+ years Signs of spend recovery 1. Q: You mentioned that you plan to splurge/treat yourself in 2021. Which categories do you intent to treat yourself to? Please select all that apply. 2. Q: Which best describes when you will most likely splurge/treat yourself? Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding. CURRENT AS OF MARCH 2, 2021
  • 13. McKinsey & Company 13 More than 60 percent of splurge spend will come from money that consumers have on hand, especially in older generations Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Mexico Consumer Pulse Survey 2/20–3/2/2021, n = 1,048, sampled and weighted to match Mexico's general population 18+ years >50% <20% 36–50% 21–35% Signs of spend recovery Financing source of splurge spend,1 % average of respondents who plan to spend, by generation 51% 68% 69% 73% 65% 59% 52% 48% 50% 52% 37% 30% 36% 27% 32% 20% 22% 22% 27% 23% Gen Z Millennials Gen X Baby boomers From available budget By reducing spend elsewhere From savings By using credit or a buy now, pay later option Avg. by financing source3 Generation2 1. Q: For your future splurge on previously selected items, how do you intend to pay? Please select the answer that best represents your situation. 2. Members of Gen Z were born from 1997–2012, millennials from 1981–1996, Gen X from 1965–1980, and baby boomers from 1946–1964. The traditionalist/silent generation is not included due to a low sample size. 3. Total respondents, average of answers on all splurge categories. CURRENT AS OF MARCH 2, 2021
  • 14. McKinsey & Company 14 While consumers expect to spend less after COVID-19, many categories see recoveries compared with the current intent to spend Signs of spend recovery Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Mexico Consumer Pulse Survey 2/20–3/2/2021, n = 1,048, sampled and weighted to match Mexico's general population 18+ years 1. Q: Over the next two weeks, do you expect that you will spend more, about the same, or less money on these categories than usual? Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding. 2. Q: Once the COVID-19 crisis subsides (i.e., once there is herd immunity), do you expect that you will spend more, about the same, or less money on these categories than during the COVID-19 pandemic? Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding. 3. Net intent is calculated by subtracting the % of respondents stating they expect to decrease spending from the % of respondents stating they expect to increase spending. -18 -52 Net Intent3 Next 2 weeks Post COVID Evolution Pet food & supplies -13 -6 Vitamins & OTC medicine -8 -1 Domestic flights -72 +3 Hotel/resort stays -72 -14 Adventures & tours -64 -3 Out-of-home entertainment -76 -4 Pet-care services -39 -16 Fitness & wellness -40 0 Personal-care services -39 -13 Gasoline -10 +18 Short-term home rentals -39 -19 Cruises -74 -44 Travel by car -50 0 International flights -60 +7 Books/magazines/newspapers -52 -31 Consumer electronics -61 -36 Entertainment at home -17 -14 Vehicles -38 Expected spending per category over the next two weeks1 compared to post COVID-192 % of respondents Net Intent3 Post COVID Next 2 weeks Evolution Groceries +4 +14 Toys & baby -29 -47 Tobacco products -40 -39 Food takeout & delivery -37 -34 Alcoholic beverages -32 -54 Accessories -43 -73 Household supplies 0 -2 Apparel -16 -50 Quick-service restaurant -30 -51 Footwear -18 -52 Home improvement & gardening -26 Restaurant -9 -57 Personal-care products -1 -5 Skin care & makeup -13 -38 Sports & outdoors -17 -55 Home & furniture -37 -67 Jewelry -48 -70 Kitchen & dining -10 -17 -15 to 0 Below -15 Above +1 Below 0 Above +25 +15 to +25 0 to +15 CURRENT AS OF MARCH 2, 2021
  • 15. McKinsey & Company 15 50 45 75 -4 -10 40 -8 -9 8 -5 -7 25 35 30 0 70 65 -6 7 -3 -2 6 20 -1 60 1 5 2 3 4 55 80 85 90 Home improvement Restaurant Household supplies Groceries Food takeout & delivery Apparel Alcoholic beverages Pet-care services Books Footwear Accessories Jewelry Kitchen Personal-care products Skin care Home decoration Personal-care services Fitness & wellness services Sports & outdoors equipment Vitamins & OTC medicine Toys & baby supplies Pet supplies Consumer electronics Home decor & furniture 1. Q: Will you continue to purchase these categories online after the COVID-19 situation subsides (i.e., once there is herd immunity)? Possible answers: “no, I will stop purchasing online altogether”; “buy less online”; “buy about the same amount online”; and “buy more online.” Number indicates net intent, calculated by subtracting % of respondents stating they expect to decrease or stop use from % of respondents stating they expect to increase or maintain use. 2. Q: Have you purchased the following categories online since the coronavirus (COVID-19) began? Please select yes or no for each category. Includes % respondents who selected “Yes” for the category. Note: Thresholds of categories are defined by the terciles. The 1st tercile of Intent occurs at -2%, and the 2nd occurs at 0%. Overall, Mexican consumers don’t anticipate much change in their online purchasing behavior compared with what they are doing now Digital is here to stay Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Mexico Consumer Pulse Survey 2/20–3/2/2021, n = 1,048, sampled and weighted to match Mexico's general population 18+ years Sustained shift to online Greater online presence Less-accelerated online shift Net intent to continue to purchase online after COVID-191 Percent of users who intend to keep doing activity after COVID-19 at same or higher level Penetration since COVID-19 2 CURRENT AS OF MARCH 2, 2021
  • 16. McKinsey & Company 16 1. Q: Have you used or done any of the following since the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis started? If yes, Q: Which best describes when you have done or used each of these items? Possible answers: “just started using since COVID-19 started”; “using more since COVID-19 started”; “using about the same since COVID-19 started”; “using less since COVID-19 started.” 2. Q: Compared to now, will you do or use the following more, less, or not at all, once the coronavirus (COVID-19) ) crisis subsides (i.e., once there is herd immunity)? Possible answers: “will stop this”; ”will reduce this”; “will keep doing what I am doing now”; “will increase this.” Number indicates respondents who chose “will keep doing what I am doing now” and “will increase this” among new or increased users. Number indicates respondents who chose “will keep doing what I am doing now” and “will increase this” among new or increased users. 8% 4% 2% 2% 3% 5% 2% 2% 5% 2% 3% 7% 7% 1% 22% 21% 9% 6% 7% 11% 7% 7% 15% 6% 13% 13% 14% 3% 7% 10% 4% 3% 3% 4% 4% 5% 9% 5% 8% 5% 7% 2% Restaurant delivery Grocery delivery Pay more for two-hour delivery Meal-kit delivery Purchased directly from social media Pay more for same-day delivery Quick-serve restaurant drive-thru Store curbside pickup In-store self-checkout Used deal-finding plug-ins Restaurant curbside pickup Buy online for in-store pickup Used a new store/restaurant app Purchased pre-owned products Using same/less Just started using Using more Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Mexico Consumer Pulse Survey 2/20–3/2/2021, n = 1,048, sampled and weighted to match Mexico's general population 18+ years 46% 47% 43% 47% 80% 37% 56% 37% 52% 64% 59% 62% 39% 31% Mexicans continue to try pickup and delivery services for the first time, and to intensify their usage of them Digital is here to stay Have you used or done any of the following since COVID-19 started1 % of respondents currently using/doing Intent to continue,2 % CURRENT AS OF MARCH 2, 2021
  • 17. McKinsey & Company 17 50 65 70 40 60 80 0 37 45 75 100 50 55 81 0 Purchased pre-owned products online Quick-serve restaurant drive-thru Buy online for in-store pickup Restaurant delivery Deal-finding plug-ins Meal-kit delivery In-store self-checkout Store curbside pickup New store/restaurant app Purchased from social media Grocery delivery Restaurant curbside pickup Intent to use after COVID-191 – Percent of new or increased users who intend to keep doing activity after COVID-19 1. Q: Compared to now, will you do or use the following more, less, or not at all, once the coronavirus (COVID-19) ) crisis subsides (i.e., once there is herd immunity)? Possible answers: “will stop this”; ”will reduce this”; “will keep doing what I am doing now”; “will increase this.” Number indicates respondents who chose “will keep doing what I am doing now” and “will increase this” among new or increased users. 2. User growth is calculated as % of respondents who replied that they are new users over % of respondents who replied that they were using the product/service pre-COVID-19 (using more, using the same, or using less). Note: Thresholds of categories are set at the median value. Intent median = 50%, growth median = 41%. Consumers say curbside pickup services work for now; just about one third report intending to continue after COVID-19 Digital is here to stay Accelerated shifts Potentially here to stay Works for now Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Mexico Consumer Pulse Survey 2/20–3/2/2021, n = 1,048, sampled and weighted to match Mexico's general population 18+ years Use growth since COVID-19 2 CURRENT AS OF MARCH 2, 2021
  • 18. McKinsey & Company 18 Mexicans have acquired at-home alternatives to out-of-home activities, such as social media, video chat, and cooking Digital is here to stay 15% 3% 6% 4% 2% 3% 25% 9% 6% 6% 14% 10% 37% 19% 29% 15% 13% 2% 7% 6% 2% 2% 44% 14% 12% 11% 32% 11% 6% 10% 13% 9% 12% 2% 5% 4% 1% 1% 6% 5% 14% 4% 7% 5% 2% Video chat: personal Online streaming Videoconferencing: professional Remote learning: myself Remote learning: my children 1% 1% Telemedicine: physical Online fitness Wellness app Watching e-sports Telemedicine: mental 2% Digital exercise machine Social media Playing online games TikTok Cooked regularly for myself/my family Personal care/grooming at home Using more Just started using Using same/less 69% 56% 53% 66% 56% 51% 65% 88% 49% 63% 55% 87% 62% 41% 41% 62% 1. Q: Have you used or done any of the following since the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis started? If yes, Q: Which best describes when you have done or used each of these items? Possible answers: “just started using since COVID-19 started”; “using more since COVID-19 started”; “using about the same since COVID-19 started”; “using less since COVID-19 started.” 2. Q: Compared to now, will you do or use the following more, less, or not at all, once the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis subsides (i.e., once there is herd immunity)? Possible answers: “will stop this”; ”will reduce this”; “will keep doing what I am doing now”; “will increase this.” Number indicates respondents who chose “will keep doing what I am doing now” and “will increase this” among new or increased users. Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Mexico Consumer Pulse Survey 2/20–3/2/2021, n = 1,048, sampled and weighted to match Mexico's general population 18+ years Intent to continue2 % Have you used or done any of the following since COVID-19 started1 % of respondents currently using/doing CURRENT AS OF MARCH 2, 2021
  • 19. McKinsey & Company 19 46 42 38 40 40 25 32 36 78 50 34 44 86 48 60 75 66 52 54 15 56 58 60 70 62 64 80 68 5 70 72 80 74 76 82 84 88 90 35 0 45 10 20 30 50 55 65 TikTok Watching e-sports Digital exercise machine Used social media Online fitness Telemedicine: physical Videoconferencing: professional Telemedicine: mental Remote learning: myself Remote learning: my children Cooked regularly Video chat: personal Wellness app Playing online games Personal care / grooming at home Online streaming 1. Q: Compared to now, will you do or use the following more, less, or not at all, once the coronavirus (COVID-19) ) crisis subsides (i.e., once there is herd immunity)? Possible answers: “will stop this”; ”will reduce this”; “will keep doing what I am doing now”; “will increase this.” Number indicates respondents who chose “will keep doing what I am doing now” and “will increase this” among new or increased users. 2. Q. Which best describes when you have done or used each of these items? Possible answers included: “just started using since coronavirus started”; “using more since coronavirus started”; “using less since coronavirus started”; “using about the same since coronavirus started.” Possible answers not included: “not using.” 3. User growth is calculated as % of respondents who replied that they are new users over % of respondents who replied that they were using the product/service pre-COVID-19 (using more, using the same, or using less). Note: Thresholds of categories are set at the median value. Penetration median = 27%, intent to use median = 59%. Remote learning and online fitness/wellness habits adopted during the crisis are likely to remain for the medium to long term Digital is here to stay Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Mexico Consumer Pulse Survey 2/20–3/2/2021, n = 1,048, sampled and weighted to match Mexico's general population 18+ years Niche and loyal No real shift since COVID-19 Universally popular Intent to use after COVID-191 Percent of new or increased users who intend to keep doing activity after COVID-19 Niche behaviors but growing fast with very loyal consumers who want to continue using it post-COVID-19 Big surge during COVID-19, but not enough penetration or intent to fully stick User growth3: 0-19% User growth: 20-39% User growth: 40-59% User growth: 60%+ New behaviors spurred by COVID-19 Penetration since COVID-19 2 CURRENT AS OF MARCH 2, 2021
  • 20. McKinsey & Company 20 Forty-six percent of consumers worked more from home and 26 percent set up a specific space at home to do so Reinvestment in the home 1. Q: Which of the following have you done in the last 12 months as a result of the COVID-19 crisis? 23% answered “None of these.” Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Mexico Consumer Pulse Survey 2/20–3/2/2021, n = 1,048, sampled and weighted to match Mexico's general population 18+ years 5% Permanently moved to a new city Permanently moved to the suburbs 6% Worked more from home Permanently moved to the countryside Decided to change jobs Went back to school Permanently moved in with family Renovated/remodeled my home Moved into a smaller home Got a new pet at home (e.g., dog, cat) Moved into a bigger home Set up a specific work from home space Set up a gym at home Reassessed my investment portfolio 10% Bought a car Sold a property Bought a property 46% 9% 4% 2% 1% 2% 5% 2% 26% 19% 11% 3% 1% 15% 21% are A/B socioeconomic level vs sample of 16% Pet adoption 15% Work/study change 54% House move 14% Home renovation 39% Investments/ Divestments 17% Main life events done in the last 12 months as a result of COVID-191 % of respondents CURRENT AS OF MARCH 2, 2021
  • 21. McKinsey & Company 21 Most Mexicans say they have tried a new shopping behavior during the pandemic, which they say they now do occasionally Continued loyalty disruption 8% 6% 5% 6% 4% 30% 31% 33% 28% 23% 4% 3% 4% New digital shopping method 38% Different retailer/store/website 42% 1% 2% New shopping method3 Different brand Private label/store brand 40% 39% 29% 82% of consumers have tried a new shopping behavior which they now do regularly Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Mexico Consumer Pulse Survey 2/20–3/2/2021, n = 1,048, sampled and weighted to match Mexico's general population 18+ years Just once Sometimes Regularly ~86% of millennials and Gen Z have tried a new shopping behavior 1. Q: Since the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis started, which of the following have you done? 18% consumers selected “none of these.” 2. Q: Which best describes whether or not you plan to continue with these shopping changes once the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis has subsided (i.e., once there is herd immunity)? Possible answers: “will go back to what I did before coronavirus”; “will keep doing both this and what I did before coronavirus”; “will keep doing this and NOT go back to what I did before coronavirus.” 3. “New shopping method” includes curbside pickup and delivery apps. 4. Intent to continue includes respondents who selected “will keep doing both this and what I did before coronavirus” and “will keep doing this and NOT go back to what I did before coronavirus.” Have you done any of the following since COVID-19 started and how often1,2 % of respondents 83% 85% 81% 80% 84% Intent to continue4 CURRENT AS OF MARCH 2, 2021
  • 22. McKinsey & Company 22 About 60 percent of consumers cite convenience and value as top drivers for trying new stores; ~48% of millennials look for ‘purpose’ 1. Q: You mentioned you shopped from a new retailer/store/website since the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis started. What were the main reasons you decided to try this new retailer/store/website? Select up to three. Overarching reason based on % of individual respondents responding to at least one reason in the group. Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Mexico Consumer Pulse Survey 2/20–3/2/2021, n = 1,048, sampled and weighted to match Mexico's general population 18+ years Continued loyalty disruption Reason for shopping at a new retailer/store/website since COVID-19 began1 % of respondents selecting reason in top three 31% 26% 23% 22% 22% 18% 14% 29% 7% 3% 1% 20% 12% 7% 5% 10% 9% Supporting local businesses Offers good delivery/pickup options Better prices/promotions More easily accessible from my home Better value Better quality Better shipping/delivery costs Less crowded / has shorter lines Can get all the items I need from one place Has more sustainable / environmentally friendly options The company treats its employees well Shares my values Products are in stock Wanted to treat myself Offers natural/organic options Wanted variety/change from my normal routine Cleaner / has better hygiene measures Net % of respondents per category X% 48% are millennials vs sample of 39% 20% have A/B socioeconomic level vs sample of 16% Value 62% Availability 20% Convenience 59% Purpose-driven 36% Quality/organic 17% Health/hygiene 9% Personal choice 16% CURRENT AS OF MARCH 2, 2021
  • 23. McKinsey & Company 23 1. Q: You mentioned you tried a new/different brand than what you normally buy. What were the main reasons that drove this decision? Select all that apply. “Brand” includes different brand, new private label/store brand. Overarching reason based on % of individual respondents responding to at least one reason in the group. Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Mexico Consumer Pulse Survey 2/20–3/2/2021, n = 1,048, sampled and weighted to match Mexico's general population 18+ years Reason for trying a new brand since COVID-19 began1 % of respondents selecting reason in top three Alongside value and novelty, purpose is a top factor for trying new brands, with Gen X consumers emphasizing it more Continued loyalty disruption Value 71% Quality/organic 32% Novelty 40% Availability 18% Purpose-driven 37% Personal choice 24% Health/hygiene 13% Convenience 18% 33% are Gen X vs sample of 26% Net % of respondents per category X% Better shipping/delivery costs 36% 27% 49% Better prices/promotions 10% Better value 18% Larger package sizes 26% 61% Wanted to try a new brand I found 20% 24% Is natural/organic Shares my values Wanted to try a type of product I’ve never tried before 15% Supporting local businesses 12% Is more sustainable / better for the environment 5% 4% The company treats its employees well 18% Better quality 16% Wanted variety/change from my normal routine 11% Wanted to treat myself Is available where I’m shopping Products are in stock 13% Cleaner / has better hygiene measures CURRENT AS OF MARCH 2, 2021
  • 24. McKinsey & Company 24 Disclaimer McKinsey does not provide legal, medical, or other regulated advice or guarantee results. These materials reflect general insight and best practice based on information currently available and do not contain all of the information needed to determine a future course of action. Such information has not been generated or independently verified by McKinsey and is inherently uncertain and subject to change. McKinsey has no obligation to update these materials and makes no representation or warranty and expressly disclaims any liability with respect thereto.