Important factors that shape both Dublin’s current and future rental market demand and supply
issues
Dublinsince 2011 has seenit’spopulationincreaseby 62,552 people,resulting largely due tothe
continual shiftinthe desirabilityof urban livingoverthe lastfiftyyears (46.4% to62.7%, Dublin
accountingfor39% of this).ItisprojectedthatDublin’spopulationwill reach2.2millionby2040,
(currentlyat1.4 million).Demandforrental propertiespresentlyhasreacheddangerouslevels,but
thisdemandwill notbe slowingdownwiththe ForeignDirectInvestmentAgencyOffice predicting
due to multi-national companiesandfuture jobopportunitiesanadditional 32,500 new residential
rental unitswill needtobe delivered by2020 (withthe numberof households privately rentingin
Dublinmore thantrebling overthe last16 years)
Furtherstressisput on boththe future and currentrental marketwithIrelandboastingone of the
youngestpopulationsinEurope with33% aged35 years old,thishadled to home ownershipwithin
Dublinonthe decline since 2000 reducingfrom75% to below 60% (leadingtomanyexperts
predictingDublinbecomingarental dominatedpropertymarketsimilartoBerlin) There isan
estimated114,652 householdsand311,183 persons currentlyprivatelyrenting inDublin(averageof
2 to 3 personhouseholds)Despite the large proportionof marriedcoupleswithchildrenthatwould
be most likelyowningtheirpropertythere remains over100,000 single households(108,409)
registeredwithinDublinexhibitingstrongdemandforone bedroomapartments(especiallyareas
such as the citycentre) The age range of 20 to 40 yearoldsmakes up a lionshare of the current
rental marketdemand withinDublintotalling 447,552 people,with the nextgenerationof Dublin
residentsaged15 to 19 78,748 people (asreportedfromthe mostrecentlocal consensus carriedout
in2016)
Dublinasper the recentDaft rental report(Quarter3 2017) hasshowngrowthof over10% across
the rental marketfor the lastsix quarters(Dublin12.3% growthandNational 10.1%) Alarmingly,
rentsare up 61% since the rental marketbottomedoutinlate 2011 and Dublinisnow 22.8% above
the previoushigh.The Quarter3 2017 CIS IrelandConstructionActivityreportinformedusthatout
of 11,300 multi-unitresidential unitsonsite 4,800 and 4,600 are locatedwithinDublinandthe
Leinsterregions(ExcludingDublin) plusanadditional 19,800 nationally eitherunderplanningagreed
or planningsubmitted stage inQuarter3 2017. Thisgood news andshouldgosome wayto elevate
the longterm propertyshortage andreduce longtermrental pricesinline withbetteraffordability.
There has longbeencallsfromwithinthe Irishpropertyindustrytoreview andreassessthe
constructioncostsof bothapartmentsandhouses,aswell asthe reductionof VATand leviesfeesas
the constructioncostsof newresidential unitsare deemedas more expensive thanthe salesprices.
CIS Irelandrecentlydocumentedthe costsof bothtwobedroomapartmentscomparedthree bed
semi detachedhouses.Itisnowmore profitableforpropertydeveloperstoconstructa three bed
semi detachedhouse ratherthana twobedapartment.Thisissurprisingasonly20% of the
populationare ona jointincome of 87,000 Euro. Bothlow to highrise apartmentsare costing
between346,000 to 418,000 Euro withmarketsalesprice between298,000 to 346,000 Euro.

The income requiredtorentinDublin continuestoprice outa larger proportion of the local
populous due tohighgrowthquarteron quarter, especiallyinareassuchthe CityCentre andSouth
CountyDublin. Despitethe continuedlongevityof the rental growthacrossDublinsince late 2011, it
was alwaysdeemedasunsustainable inthe longtermwithmanyexpertspredictingapropertycrash
similartolate 2011 occurringwithinthe nextfive years. The largestgrowthacrossDublinhasbeen
experiencedacrossthe CityCentre andSouthCountyDublin(1,005 to1,819 and 1,309 to 1,955
Euro) from quarter4 2011 to quarter3 2017, withDublin1,Dublin2,Dublin4and Dublin6 beingthe
areas withhighestrental increasesacrossone tothree bedroomproperties,Whilst Dublin14,Dublin
16 and Dublin18 havingrental increasesranging from337 to 567 Euro. SouthCountyDublinaverage
income requiredtorenthasrisento 23,460 comparedto 15,708 Euro inQuarter 4 2011 and the City
Centre 12,060 to 21,828 Euro,both remainingamongstthe topthree mostexpensiveDublinregions
across the six yearperiod.The rentfor a one bedin the CityCentre ismore expensive thanatwo
bedinDublin14, 16 and18 (all pricedbetween1,461 Euro to 1,617 Euro withthe CityCentre prices
1,718 and1,824 Euro) whichexplainsthe shiftof manyDublinresidentschoosingtolive outside of
the city.The demandforlivinginthe SouthCountyDublinhas beenapparentwiththe level of
residentialnewbuildactivityinthe areaoverthe lasttenyearsand the expectedmarketrental price
trackinghigherthan North CountyandWest CountyDublin.
0
250
500
750
1000
1250
1500
1750
2000
2250
2500
2750
3000
One Bedroom Rent Two Bedroom Rent Three Bedroom Rent
AverageRent(Euro)
Property Type
Averagerentacross Dublin one, two and three bedroom
properties 2011 to 2017
2011 North County 2011 South County 2011 West County 2011 City Centre
2017 North County 2017 South County 2017 West County 2017 City Centre

Both NorthCounty and WestCountyDublin combined tomake an average rentof 885 and 1,277
Euro across twobedpropertiescomparedtoSouthCountyDublin 1,181 to 1,691 Euro overthe same
six yearperiod(the differencebetweenthe averagesgoingfrom296 to 414 Euro) Three Bedroom
Propertieshave shownthe biggest difference gapinrental expectationsdespite the gapreducing
overthe same time period (difference of 534 to 495 Euro) WhereasSouthCountyDublinfirstbroke
the thousandEuro mark in2011 for twobedrooms,the NorthandWest Countiesof Dublinachieved
thisinthree bedroompropertiesbutstill atalowerrental price (1,181 and 1,016 Euro) Similartothe
one thousandfive hundredEuromarkwithSouthCountyDublinaveragingthree bedroomproperty
rentof 1,550 Euro back in2011 and the boththe Northand WestCountiesof Dublin notuntil
Quarter3 2017 (1,517 and 1,545 withSouthCountyDublinone bedapartmentsat1,471 and three
bedpropertiesat2,026 Euro)
Many of the current25-35 yearsoldswithinDublinbelievetheydon’tearnenoughincome to
purchase a propertyas the medianhouse price inDublinisnow 4.7 timesthe wage average,both
firsttime buyers withsingle andjointincomehouseholds accordingtothe EBS and DKM housing
affordability index pointsout thatboththe proportionof income spentonthe monthlymortgage
and income/incomesrequired topurchase continuestobe unrealisticunderthe average wage of
37,700 Euro. Income spentonmonthlymortgage repaymentsforsingle andjointearnerssince 2015
has gone from72,023 to 89,176 and 101,252 to 123,33 Euro and the proportiononincome following
a similartrend18.7% to 27.4% and 21.2% to 32.2%. Thishas ultimatelyledtolongerlease periods
for existingtenants, andboththe currentandnextgeneration renters unabletofind rental property
withinDublin
Usingthe data andsourcescitedabove,there needstobe drasticaction takento addressthe issues
facedby privatelyrentinghouseholds.These belowactionsmustbe assessed:
 Firstly,addressingthe availabilityandaffordabilityof firsttime buyerspropertiestoreduce
the alarminglevelsof demandandshortage of rental propertyfacingthe Dublinproperty
market.
 Secondly,continueto drive construction activity andsecure investmentwithinthe buildto
rentsector, as the firsttime buyersage getscloserto40, back in2009 was 29 and now
currentlyat 34
0
2,500
5,000
7,500
10,000
12,500
15,000
17,500
20,000
22,500
25,000
27,500
30,000
One Bedroom required
Income
Two Bedroom required
income
Three Bedroom required
income
AverageIncomeRequired(Euro)
Property Type
Averagerequired Incometo rent in Dublin 2011 to 2017
2011 North County 2011 South County 2011 West County 2011 City Centre
2017 North County 2017 South County 2017 West County 2017 City Centre

 Thirdly, gaina betterbalance betweendesirable marketrent andaffordablerent
 Fourthly, reviewof bothcurrentwagesinDublinandthe increasingcostof livingreducing
the chance of the nextgenerationlike pastgenerationslookingtoimmigrate straightafter
completingtheirdegreesorPHD’sforbetterjobopportunities andwages
 Fifthly, Review of currentavailable developmentland andassesssubmittedplanningthat
bestaddressespropertydemandatalocal level
ResearchedandPublishedbyMatthew Scott17/11/2017
Please contactme on 0860288318 or byemail businessaim1@googlemail.com