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Matt Gray
Head of Power & Utilities
Carbon Tracker Initiative
Powering down coal
Navigating the economic and financial risks in
the last years of coal power
COP24
December 13, 2018

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Who are we?
Carbon Tracker is an independent non-profit financial think tank
funded by EU and US foundations interested in climate.
Mapping the transition for the fossil fuel industry
to stay within a two-degree budget.
To enable a climate secure global energy market by aligning
the capital markets with climate reality.
Strategy
Research that
unpicks the
implications of the
energy transition
for fossil fuel
supply and
demand
Engage to deepen
the dialogue with
investors to enable
transparency on
implications of
transition
Communication
to amplify
research findings
and influence the
debate in
mainstream
media
Educate
mainstream
financiers and
policy-makers
over the risk
of a disorderly
transition
Identity
Vision
Mission

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 Theory of change
 Report findings
 Online tool
Outline

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Theory of change

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Two-year modelling effort
6,685
coal units
95%
operating capacity
90%
under construction capacity
34
countries

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Two-year modelling effort
Cost
short and long run marginal cost
Profitability
based on long run marginal cost
Competitiveness
based on LCOE of wind and solar
Phase-out year
below 2oC scenario analysis
Stranded asset
risk
below 2oC scenario analysis

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Report findings – profitability independent of
additional climate and air policy

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Report findings – competitiveness independent of
additional climate and air policy

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Report findings – below 2oC stranded asset
risk

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Scale of the challenge – timing issue

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Scale of the challenge – collective action
issue
Jobs?
Regional
development?
Retraining
workforce?
Lobbying
&
cronyism?
Economic
competitiveness?
Attack on
capital?
Shareholders
vs.
workers?
Workers
vs.
consumers?
Consumers
vs.
shareholders?

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A requisite to get policymakers, investors and civil
society to work effective together
DATA!

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Online tool

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 Independent of climate policy coal power is struggling to make
money and compete with alternatives
 If policymakers, investors and civil society don’t work together
getting off coal in a manner consistent with Paris is highly unlikely
 Transparent economic and financial data is essential to get off high-
cost coal in a timely manner
Conclusion

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For more information please visit:
www.carbontracker.org
@CarbonBubble
If you are interested in knowing more,
please get in touch:
mgray@carbontracker.org