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Citizen-centered evaluations of needs, priorities and well-being of forest beneficiaries, Kilimanjaro, Tanzania ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Forests are critical in sustaining human and environmental well-being
Sustainable Forest Management: ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Limitations of conventional valuations Hence, need for citizen-centered evaluations taking into account needs, priorities, and well-being of present and future generations and non-human entities. Market centered-valuations Nature-centered valuations ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Research objective is to evaluate: ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Best position Worst position Welfare position in amenity space, value space, or institutional space
Study Area: Mt. Kilimanjaro
Kilimanjaro is ideal for this study:  great variation in bio-physical and socio-economic features +  multi-stakeholder forest regime
Methods = Socio-economic micro-surveys + secondary data ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],= sampling sites
Well-being evaluation:   want parameter, welfare sensitivity  & determinants of welfare parameters σ Verbal qualifications as stimuli: Highest satisfaction Absolute deprivation Individual’s graph of welfare function of wood fuels
Elicitation and estimation of social value preferences of forest users ,[object Object],[object Object]
Analysis of Stakeholder attitudes   ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],POSSIBILISTIC CHAOS THEORY Chaos theory analysis of  stakeholder interactions ,[object Object],[object Object],(- -) ,[object Object]
RESULTS & IMPLICATIONS
Current household per-capita  consumptions  are strongly explained by  environmental entitlements  and  household size . Current consumptions  and  environmental  amenity entitlements are the strongest predictors of  well-being parameters Household size Environmental entitlements Coefficient -1.0026 0.0107 P>|t  0.01 0.01   R 2 =  0.65 Current consumption Environmental entitlements Coefficient 1.4934 0.0044 P>|t  0.01 0.05   R 2 =  0.79
‘ Just a little bit more’ ‘ I want more’ Amenity preference drift: (=Psychological adaptation; endowment effect) Communal energy conservation:  i.e. smaller per capita consumptions in larger households. Implications:  Static & Malthusian approaches are inadequate and unfair in forest resource analysis;  Resource consumption forecasts must consider changing demographic structure (e.g. due to urbanization and globalization) , as well as institutional-legal entitlements CLUSTERED = CONSERVING ATOMISTIC = GUZZLING
Note: Wilcoxon signed-rank test for difference between paired observations   Non-use and indirect use values are heavily weighted ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Rank Prob > |z| Prob > |z| rank I 0.0011 Non-use values: bequest, option, and existence I II 0.0523 Indirect use values (non-consumptive): < 0.01 1 Ecosystem services 1 0.0537 Biological diversity 2 Recreation and tourism < 0.01 Spiritual, cultural, aesthetic 2 III ,[object Object],II 1 0.0238 Ethno-medicines 1 2 Edible products 0.0000 Wood products 0.0021 Livestock fodder 2 Wood-fuels 0.0631 3 Cultivation land
Based on Kruskal-Wallis test of equality of populations   ‘ Social conscience’ vs. ‘individual conscience’ ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Prob > |F| a Prob > |F| a 4.494  0.3432 Non-use values: bequest, option, and existence 0.9032 1.043  11.420 0.0222 ** Indirect use values: 0.0432 ** 9.840 9.323 0.0535 ** Ecosystem services 0.4011 4.036 9.078 0.0592 * Biological diversity 0.2887 4.987 8.484 0.0754 * Recreation and tourism 0.4269 3.848 16.824 0.0021 *** Spiritual, cultural, aesthetic 0.0175 ** 11.977 11.078  0.0257 ** Direct use values: ,[object Object],[object Object],5.682  0.2242 Ethno-medicines  0.2304  5.608  8.735 0.0681 * Wood-fuels 0.1072 7.605 6.877 0.1425 Livestock fodder 0.0030 ** 16.041 2.862 0.5811 Edible products 0.0194 ** 11.734 13.573  0.0088 ** Wood products 0.0095 ** 13.387 8.267 0.0823 * Cultivation land 0.0663 * 8.800
Collaborative regime is accorded highest Social Acceptability by different stakeholder groups Use MaxMin Criteria: decision made to maximize well-being of the most disadvantaged  Stakeholder groups Overall  acceptability for  Alternative forest management regimes State - Policing Participatory/Community based Collaborative ENGO 0.42 0.52 0.75 Forest Authority 0.46 0.80 0.73 Park Authority 0.66 0.41 0.58 Coffee Estate 0.91 0.83 0.83 Local Community 0.62 0.70 0.51 Inter-group aggregation ( Min operator ) 0.42 0.41 0.51 'Optimum' decision ( Max Operator ) 0.51
Considering formal institutions, there exists a bureaucrat vs. agrarian population divide regarding logging of native forests Park Authority Forest Authority ENGO Agrarian Private   estate Plantation forests on Mount Kilimanjaro should be used as main source of timber instead of harvesting native forests The logging of high quality native forest tree species on Mount Kilimanjaro is acceptable provided it is done legally, in a sustainable manner, using environmentally sound technologies
Considering informal institutions, there exists  pro-environment  and  pro-development  Advocacy Coalitions regarding logging of native forests Park Authority Forest Authority Social justice activist Agrarian Private   estate Plantation forests on Mount Kilimanjaro should be used as main source of timber instead of harvesting native forests Environmental activist Development activist The logging of high quality native forest tree species on Mount Kilimanjaro is acceptable provided it is done legally, in a sustainable manner, using environmentally sound technologies
Conclusion: Forest resource allocation and management must be eco-systemic & citizen-centered ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Acknowledgements ,[object Object]
 

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Martins Sgs Thesis Defence Final

  • 1.
  • 2. Forests are critical in sustaining human and environmental well-being
  • 3.
  • 4.
  • 5.
  • 6. Study Area: Mt. Kilimanjaro
  • 7. Kilimanjaro is ideal for this study: great variation in bio-physical and socio-economic features + multi-stakeholder forest regime
  • 8.
  • 9. Well-being evaluation: want parameter, welfare sensitivity & determinants of welfare parameters σ Verbal qualifications as stimuli: Highest satisfaction Absolute deprivation Individual’s graph of welfare function of wood fuels
  • 10.
  • 11.
  • 13. Current household per-capita consumptions are strongly explained by environmental entitlements and household size . Current consumptions and environmental amenity entitlements are the strongest predictors of well-being parameters Household size Environmental entitlements Coefficient -1.0026 0.0107 P>|t 0.01 0.01 R 2 = 0.65 Current consumption Environmental entitlements Coefficient 1.4934 0.0044 P>|t 0.01 0.05 R 2 = 0.79
  • 14. ‘ Just a little bit more’ ‘ I want more’ Amenity preference drift: (=Psychological adaptation; endowment effect) Communal energy conservation: i.e. smaller per capita consumptions in larger households. Implications: Static & Malthusian approaches are inadequate and unfair in forest resource analysis; Resource consumption forecasts must consider changing demographic structure (e.g. due to urbanization and globalization) , as well as institutional-legal entitlements CLUSTERED = CONSERVING ATOMISTIC = GUZZLING
  • 15.
  • 16.
  • 17. Collaborative regime is accorded highest Social Acceptability by different stakeholder groups Use MaxMin Criteria: decision made to maximize well-being of the most disadvantaged Stakeholder groups Overall acceptability for Alternative forest management regimes State - Policing Participatory/Community based Collaborative ENGO 0.42 0.52 0.75 Forest Authority 0.46 0.80 0.73 Park Authority 0.66 0.41 0.58 Coffee Estate 0.91 0.83 0.83 Local Community 0.62 0.70 0.51 Inter-group aggregation ( Min operator ) 0.42 0.41 0.51 'Optimum' decision ( Max Operator ) 0.51
  • 18. Considering formal institutions, there exists a bureaucrat vs. agrarian population divide regarding logging of native forests Park Authority Forest Authority ENGO Agrarian Private estate Plantation forests on Mount Kilimanjaro should be used as main source of timber instead of harvesting native forests The logging of high quality native forest tree species on Mount Kilimanjaro is acceptable provided it is done legally, in a sustainable manner, using environmentally sound technologies
  • 19. Considering informal institutions, there exists pro-environment and pro-development Advocacy Coalitions regarding logging of native forests Park Authority Forest Authority Social justice activist Agrarian Private estate Plantation forests on Mount Kilimanjaro should be used as main source of timber instead of harvesting native forests Environmental activist Development activist The logging of high quality native forest tree species on Mount Kilimanjaro is acceptable provided it is done legally, in a sustainable manner, using environmentally sound technologies
  • 20.
  • 21.
  • 22.