Venezuela And Oil

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Venezuela Macroeconomic Outlook

Center for International Development, Harvard University

Venezuela is currently undergoing the worst economic crisis in its history. By the end of 2016, more than 30% of the gross domestic product (GDP) it had three years ago will be lost. Poverty has soared to record levels. Monthly inflation rates are gradually approaching hyperinflation. Shortages of basic food staples and medicines are rampant. A three-tier exchange rate system prevails, with black market rates surpassing the lowest official rate by a factor of one-hundred. After more than a decade of massive expropriations and state control, the small, surviving, private industrial apparatus is nearly paralyzed, trapped in a web of regulations, without access to foreign currency to purchase parts or raw materials, and their operations are technologically obsolete. In order to promote a better understanding of the causes, magnitudes, and possible remedies of the crisis, the Center for International Development (CID) at Harvard University launched a research initiative on Venezuela at the end of 2015.

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Center for International Development, Harvard University

The literature on external default has stressed the existence of the so-called debt-intolerance puzzle: developing nations tend to default at debt-to-GDP ratios well bellow those of developed countries. The underestimation or plain omission of domestic debt may account for a fraction of that puzzle. We calculate fiscal revenues coming from financial repression using different methodologies for the case of Venezuela, and look at their correspondence with comprehensive measures of capital flight. In particular, we add to the standard measure of capital flight the over-invoicing of imports, rife in periods of exchange controls. We find that financial repression accounts for public revenues similar to those of OECD economies, in spite of the latter having much higher domestic debt-to-GDP ratios. We also find that financial repression and capital flight is significantly higher in years of exchange controls and interest rate caps. We interpret this as significant evidence suggesting a link between domestic disequilibrium and a weakening of the net foreign asset position via capital flight.

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Francisco Monaldi, Baker Institute and Harvard University ERF and AFESD conference on: Monetary and Fiscal Institutions in Resource-Rich Arab Economies Kuwait, November 4-5, 2015 For more info, please visit www.erf.org.eg Session on: Oil, Rents and Politics: Forty-five years after Hossein Mahdavy developed the modern concept of a “rentier state,” hundreds of studies have been conducted on the ways that oil wealth seems to influence governance. This session will give an overview of some key insights about state-building, development policies, accountability and conflict, particularly those that cast light on the oil-rich Arab states during a period of low prices. Venezuela, under chavismo, offers a good political economy illustration of how a country can economically underperform during commodity booms, largely thanks to spending bonanzas related to electoral cycles.

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Assignment 2 Deadline: 27-03-2020 @ 23:59 Course Name: Intro to International Business Instructions: · : Students must mention question number clearly in their answer. · Avoid plagiarism, the work should be in your own words, copying from students or other resources without proper referencing will result in ZERO marks. No exceptions. · All answered must be typed using Times New Roman (size 12, double-spaced) font. No pictures containing text will be accepted and will be considered plagiarism). · Citing of references is also necessary in APA style. Critical Thinking Please read Case 2: “Venezuela under Hugo Chávez and Beyond” available in your e-book (page no.611), and answer the following questions: Assignment Question(s): 1. Under Chávez’s leadership, what kind of economic system was put in place in Venezuela? How would you characterize the political system? 2. How do you think that Chávez’s unilateral changes to contracts with foreign oil companies will affect future investment by foreigners in Venezuela? 3. How will the high level of public corruption in Venezuela affect future growth rates? 4. During the Chávez years, many foreign multinationals exited Venezuela or reduced their exposure there. What do you think the impact of this has been on Venezuela? What needs to be done to reverse the trend? 5. By 2016, Venezuela’s economy appeared to be on the brink of total collapse. What do you think needs to be done to reverse this? Assignment 2 D ead line: 27 - 03 - 2020 @ 23:59 Course Name: Intro to International Business Instructions : · : Students must mention question number clearly in their answer . · Avoid plagiarism , the work should be in your own words , copying from students or other resources without proper referencing will result in ZERO marks. No exceptions. · All answered must be typed using Times New Roman (size 12, double - spaced) font. No pictures containing text will be accepted and will be considered plagiarism). · Citing of references is also necessary in APA style . C ritical Thinking Please read Case 2 : “Venezuela under Hugo Chávez and Beyond” available in your e - book (page no.611 ), and answer the following questions: Assignment Question (s) : 1. Under Chávez’s leadership, what kind of economic system was put in place in Venezuela? How would you characterize the political system? Assignment 2 Deadline: 27-03-2020 @ 23:59 Course Name: Intro to International Business Instructions:  : Students must mention question number clearly in their answer.  Avoid plagiarism, the work should be in your own words, copying from students or other resources without proper referencing will result in ZERO marks. No exceptions.  All answered must be typed using Times New Roman (size 12, double- spaced) font. No pictures containing text will be accepted and will be considered plagiarism).  Citing of references is a ...

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Inflation-Wrought Venezuela Orders Bank Notes by the Planeload Government relies on massive imports of bills from foreign printing companies to keep economy going By Kejal Vyas Updated Feb. 3, 2016 9:47 p.m. ET , WSJ Venezuelans queue to purchase food in a sale in Caracas, Venezuela, in late January. PHOTO: MIGUEL GUTIERREZ/EUROPEAN PRESSPHOTO AGENCY CARACAS—Millions of pounds of provisions, stuffed into three-dozen 747 cargo planes, arrived here from countries around the world in recent months to service Venezuela’s crippled economy. But instead of food and medicine, the planes carried another resource that often runs scarce here: bills of Venezuela’s currency, the bolivar. The shipments were part of the import of at least five billion bank notes that President Nicolás Maduro’s administration authorized over the latter half of 2015 as the government boosts the supply of the country’s increasingly worthless currency, according to seven people familiar with the deals. Inflation-Wrought Venezuela Orders Bank Notes by the Planeload Government relies on massive imports of bills from foreign printing companies to keep economy going By Kejal Vyas Updated Feb. 3, 2016 9:47 p.m. ET , WSJ And the Venezuelan government isn’t finished. In December, the central bank began secret negotiations to order 10 billion more bills, five of these people said, which would effectively double the amount of cash in circulation. That order alone is well above the eight billion notes the U.S. Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank each print annually—dollars and euros that unlike bolivars are used world-wide. Four spokesmen from Venezuela’s central bank didn’t respond to calls and emails seeking comment. Economists say the purchases could exacerbate Venezuela’s economic meltdown: injecting large numbers of freshly printed notes is likely to stoke inflation, which the International Monetary Fund estimates will this year hit 720%, the world’s highest rate. Central-bank data show Venezuela in 2015 more than doubled monetary liquidity, a measure used to gauge all money in the economy, including bank deposits. Printing more bolivars is weakening the currency further. This week, the bolivar broke the psychologically important level of 1,000 per dollar for the first time on the country’s thriving black market. Inflation-Wrought Venezuela Orders Bank Notes by the Planeload Government relies on massive imports of bills from foreign printing companies to keep economy going By Kejal Vyas Updated Feb. 3, 2016 9:47 p.m. ET , WSJ The country has several official exchange rates, including 6.3 bolivars to the dollar. On Wednesday the country’s trade and investment minister, Jesús Faría, called for an overhaul of currency controls. “It’s evident that the current currency regime has exhausted itself,” he said in an interview. Venezuela’s 30 million people can’t seem to get cash fast enough, said Steve H. Hank.

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