The Drilling Productivity Report uses recent data on the total number of drilling rigs in operation along with estimates of drilling productivity and estimated changes in production from existing oil and natural gas wells to provide estimated changes in oil and natural gas production for six key fields. EIA's approach does not distinguish between oil-directed rigs and gas-directed rigs because once a well is completed it may produce both oil and gas; more than half of the wells produce both.
EIA's Monthly Drilling Productiviy Report - Dec 2013
1. Independent Statistics & Analysis
U.S. Energy Information
Administration
December 2013
Drilling Productivity Report
For key tight oil and shale gas regions
Bakken
Marcellus
Niobrara
Permian
Haynesville
Eagle Ford
The six regions analyzed in this report accounted for nearly 90% of domestic oil production
growth and virtually all domestic natural gas production growth during 2011-12.
Contents
Year-over-year summary
Bakken
Eagle Ford
Haynesville
Marcellus
Niobrara
Permian
Explanatory notes
Sources
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
2. Year-over-year summary
December 2013
drilling data through November
projected production through January
Drilling Productivity Report
New-well oil production per rig
New-well gas production per rig
barrels/day
thousand cubic feet/day
January-2013
January-2014
January-2013
1,000
January-2014
6,000
5,000
750
4,000
3,000
500
2,000
250
1,000
0
0
Bakken
Eagle Ford
Haynesville
Marcellus
Niobrara
Legacy oil production change
Eagle Ford Haynesville
Marcellus
Niobrara
Permian
Marcellus
Niobrara
Permian
Legacy gas production change
thousand barrels/day
Bakken
Bakken
Permian
million cubic feet/day
Eagle Ford
Haynesville
Marcellus
Niobrara
Permian
0
Bakken
Eagle Ford Haynesville
0
(50)
(10)
(100)
(20)
(150)
(30)
(200)
(40)
(250)
(300)
(50)
(350)
(60)
(400)
January-2013
January-2014
(450)
(70)
January-2013
January-2014
Indicated monthly change in oil production (Jan vs. Dec)
Indicated monthly change in gas production (Jan vs. Dec)
thousand barrels/day
million cubic feet/day
January-2013
January-2013
January-2014
January-2014
500
40
400
30
300
20
200
10
0
100
-10
0
-20
-100
-30
-200
-300
-40
Bakken
Eagle Ford
Haynesville
Marcellus
Niobrara
Bakken
Permian
Eagle Ford Haynesville
Oil production
Niobrara
Permian
Natural gas production
thousand barrels/day
Marcellus
million cubic feet/day
January-2013
January-2013
January-2014
2,000
12,000
1,600
January-2014
10,000
8,000
1,200
6,000
800
4,000
400
2,000
0
0
Bakken
Eagle Ford
Haynesville
Marcellus
Niobrara
Permian
U. S. Energy Information Administration | Drilling Productivity Report
Bakken
Eagle Ford Haynesville
Marcellus
Niobrara
Permian
2
3. Bakken
December 2013
drilling data through November
projected production through January
Drilling Productivity Report
508
494
Oil
+14
barrels/day
month over month
Monthly
additions
from one
average rig
January
December
barrels/day
Bakken
New-well oil production per rig
Rig count
rigs
barrels/day
600
December
Bakken
New-well gas production per rig
200
400
thousand cubic feet/day
month over month
thousand cubic feet/day
250
rig count
Gas
+8
3,000
Rig count
rigs
thousand cubic feet/day
3,600
new-well oil production per rig
500
477
469
January
150
300
250
new-well gas production per rig
200
rig count
2,400
150
1,800
100
200
50
100
0
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
50
600
0
2014
2013
100
1,200
0
2007
2008
2009
2010
Bakken
Legacy oil production change
2012
2013
Bakken
Legacy gas production change
thousand barrels/day
0
2011
0
2014
million cubic feet/day
0
(10)
(10)
(20)
(20)
(30)
(30)
(40)
(40)
(50)
(60)
(50)
(70)
2007
(60)
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Bakken
Indicated change in oil production (Jan vs. Dec)
Bakken
Indicated change in natural gas production (Jan vs. Dec)
thousand barrels/day
100
million cubic feet/day
100
2014
+88
+25
-63
50
-55
+28
50
0
+83
0
Dec
1,000
Mbbl/d
Production
from
new wells
Legacy
production
change
Bakken
Oil production
Net
change
Jan
1,025
Mbbl/d
Dec
1,092
MMcf/d
Legacy
production
change
Bakken
Natural gas production
Oil +25
thousand barrels/day
month over month
thousand barrels/day
1,000
Production
from
new wells
Net
change
Jan
1,119
MMcf/d
Gas +28
million cubic feet/day
month over month
million cubic feet/day
6,000
5,000
800
4,000
600
3,000
400
2,000
200
0
2007
1,000
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
U. S. Energy Information Administration | Drilling Productivity Report
2014
0
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
3
4. Eagle Ford
December 2013
drilling data through November
projected production through January
Drilling Productivity Report
422
413
Oil
+9
barrels/day
month over month
Monthly
additions
from one
average rig
January
December
barrels/day
Eagle Ford
New-well oil production per rig
Rig count
rigs
barrels/day
600
Eagle Ford
New-well gas production per rig
3,000
200
300
150
200
100
100
2009
2010
2011
2012
0
2014
2013
Rig count
rigs
350
new-well gas production per rig
300
rig count
250
2,400
200
1,800
150
1,200
100
600
50
2008
thousand cubic feet/day
month over month
thousand cubic feet/day
3,600
250
400
Gas
+11
thousand cubic feet/day
300
rig count
0
2007
December
1,237
1,226
350
new-well oil production per rig
500
January
0
2007
50
2008
2009
2010
Eagle Ford
Legacy oil production change
2012
2013
Eagle Ford
Legacy gas production change
thousand barrels/day
0
(10)
(20)
(30)
(40)
(50)
(60)
(70)
(80)
(90)
(100)
2007
2008
2011
0
2014
million cubic feet/day
0
(50)
(100)
(150)
(200)
(250)
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
(300)
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Eagle Ford
Indicated change in oil production (Jan vs. Dec)
Eagle Ford
Indicated change in natural gas production (Jan vs. Dec)
thousand barrels/day
million cubic feet/day
+351
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
Dec
Production
5,982
from
MMcf/d
new wells
2014
+120
+29
-91
100
50
0
Dec
1,226
Mbbl/d
Production
from
new wells
Legacy
production
change
Eagle Ford
Oil production
Net
change
Jan
1,255
Mbbl/d
Legacy
production
change
Eagle Ford
Natural gas production
Oil +29
thousand barrels/day
month over month
thousand barrels/day
1,400
-244
million cubic feet/day
month over month
5,000
800
4,000
600
3,000
400
2,000
200
Jan
6,089
MMcf/d
6,000
1,000
Net
change
Gas +107
million cubic feet/day
7,000
1,200
+107
1,000
0
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
U. S. Energy Information Administration | Drilling Productivity Report
2014
0
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
4
5. Haynesville
December 2013
drilling data through November
projected production through January
Drilling Productivity Report
35
35
Oil
0
barrels/day
month over month
Monthly
additions
from one
average rig
January
December
barrels/day
Haynesville
New-well oil production per rig
Rig count
rigs
barrels/day
1,000
January
December
5,059
5,040
Gas
+19
thousand cubic feet/day
month over month
thousand cubic feet/day
Haynesville
New-well gas production per rig
Rig count
rigs
300
250
400
200
0
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
150
2,000
100
50
600
3,000
100
rig count
4,000
150
800
5,000
200
new-well oil production per rig
thousand cubic feet/day
6,000
1,000
50
0
2014
2013
300
new-well gas production per rig
250
rig count
0
2007
2008
200
2009
2010
Haynesville
Legacy oil production change
2012
2013
Haynesville
Legacy gas production change
thousand barrels/day
0
2011
0
2014
million cubic feet/day
0
(100)
(200)
(1)
(300)
(400)
(2)
(500)
(600)
(3)
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
(700)
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Haynesville
Indicated change in oil production (Jan vs. Dec)
Haynesville
Indicated change in natural gas production (Jan vs. Dec)
thousand barrels/day
million cubic feet/day
350
2014
2.0
+2
+0
-2
+239
-370
-131
250
1.5
150
1.0
50
0.5
-50
0.0
-150
Dec
54
Mbbl/d
Production
from
new wells
Legacy
production
change
Haynesville
Oil production
Net
change
Jan
54
Mbbl/d
Dec
6,492
MMcf/d
Legacy
production
change
Haynesville
Natural gas production
Oil +0
thousand barrels/day
month over month
thousand barrels/day
2,000
Production
from
new wells
Net
change
Jan
6,361
MMcf/d
Gas -131
million cubic feet/day
month over month
million cubic feet/day
12,000
10,000
1,600
8,000
1,200
6,000
800
4,000
400
0
2007
2,000
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
U. S. Energy Information Administration | Drilling Productivity Report
2014
0
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
5
6. Marcellus
December 2013
drilling data through November
projected production through January
Drilling Productivity Report
41
40
Oil
+1
barrels/day
month over month
Monthly
additions
from one
average rig
January
December
barrels/day
Marcellus
New-well oil production per rig
Rig count
rigs
barrels/day
1,000
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
2014
new-well oil production per rig
800
rig count
600
400
200
0
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
January
December
6,193
6,038
Gas
+155
thousand cubic feet/day
month over month
thousand cubic feet/day
Marcellus
New-well gas production per rig
Rig count
rigs
thousand cubic feet/day
6,000
new-well gas production per rig
4,800
rig count
3,600
2,400
1,200
0
2007
2008
2009
2010
Marcellus
Legacy oil production change
2012
2013
Marcellus
Legacy gas production change
thousand barrels/day
0
2011
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
2014
million cubic feet/day
0
(40)
(80)
(1)
(120)
(160)
(2)
(200)
(3)
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
(240)
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Marcellus
Indicated change in oil production (Jan vs. Dec)
Marcellus
Indicated change in natural gas production (Jan vs. Dec)
thousand barrels/day
4.0
million cubic feet/day
600
2014
+4
+2
-2
3.0
+612
-193
+419
400
2.0
200
1.0
0.0
0
Dec
39
Mbbl/d
Production
from
new wells
Legacy
production
change
Marcellus
Oil production
Net
change
Jan
41
Mbbl/d
Dec
13,303
MMcf/d
thousand barrels/day
month over month
1,600
1,200
800
400
0
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
U. S. Energy Information Administration | Drilling Productivity Report
Legacy
production
change
Marcellus
Natural gas production
Oil +2
thousand barrels/day
2,000
Production
from
new wells
2014
million cubic feet/day
16,000
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
2007
2008
2009
Net
change
Jan
13,721
MMcf/d
Gas +419
million cubic feet/day
month over month
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
6
7. Niobrara
December 2013
drilling data through November
projected production through January
Drilling Productivity Report
323
317
Oil
+6
barrels/day
month over month
Monthly
additions
from one
average rig
January
December
barrels/day
Niobrara
New-well oil production per rig
Rig count
rigs
barrels/day
600
December
1,222
1,258
rig count
3,000
80
300
2009
2010
2011
2012
0
2014
2013
100
2,400
600
20
2008
120
80
60
1,200
40
100
140
1,800
60
200
Rig count
rigs
thousand cubic feet/day
3,600
100
400
thousand cubic feet/day
month over month
Niobrara
New-well gas production per rig
120
new-well oil production per rig
Gas
-36
thousand cubic feet/day
140
500
0
2007
January
0
2007
40
new-well gas production per rig
20
rig count
2008
2009
2010
Niobrara
Legacy oil production change
2012
2013
Niobrara
Legacy gas production change
thousand barrels/day
0
2011
0
2014
million cubic feet/day
0
(5)
(50)
(10)
(100)
(15)
(150)
(20)
(25)
(200)
(30)
2007
(250)
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Niobrara
Indicated change in oil production (Jan vs. Dec)
Niobrara
Indicated change in natural gas production (Jan vs. Dec)
thousand barrels/day
million cubic feet/day
100
2014
+32
+7
-25
30
+122
-157
-35
50
20
0
10
-50
0
-100
Dec
275
Mbbl/d
Production
from
new wells
Legacy
production
change
Niobrara
Oil production
Net
change
Jan
282
Mbbl/d
Dec
4,634
MMcf/d
Legacy
production
change
Niobrara
Natural gas production
Oil +7
thousand barrels/day
month over month
thousand barrels/day
1,000
Production
from
new wells
Net
change
Jan
4,600
MMcf/d
Gas -35
million cubic feet/day
month over month
million cubic feet/day
6,000
5,000
800
4,000
600
3,000
400
2,000
200
0
2007
1,000
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
U. S. Energy Information Administration | Drilling Productivity Report
2014
0
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
7
8. Permian
December 2013
drilling data through November
projected production through January
Drilling Productivity Report
81
81
Oil
0
barrels/day
month over month
Monthly
additions
from one
average rig
January
December
barrels/day
Permian
New-well oil production per rig
Rig count
rigs
barrels/day
600
189
188
January
December
Gas
+1
thousand cubic feet/day
month over month
thousand cubic feet/day
Permian
New-well gas production per rig
Rig count
rigs
600
thousand cubic feet/day
3,600
500
3,000
400
400
2,400
400
300
300
1,800
300
200
200
1,200
200
100
100
600
100
new-well oil production per rig
500
rig count
0
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
0
2014
2013
600
new-well gas production per rig
0
2007
500
rig count
2008
2009
2010
Permian
Legacy oil production change
2012
2013
Permian
Legacy gas production change
thousand barrels/day
0
2011
0
2014
million cubic feet/day
0
(5)
(20)
(10)
(40)
(15)
(60)
(20)
(80)
(25)
(30)
(100)
(35)
(120)
(40)
2007
(140)
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Permian
Indicated change in oil production (Jan vs. Dec)
Permian
Indicated change in natural gas production (Jan vs. Dec)
thousand barrels/day
million cubic feet/day
2014
+37
+1
-36
+88
-88
+0
80
30
60
20
40
10
20
0
0
Dec
1,335
Mbbl/d
Production
from
new wells
Legacy
production
change
Permian
Oil production
Net
change
Jan
1,335
Mbbl/d
Dec
5,046
MMcf/d
thousand barrels/day
month over month
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
U. S. Energy Information Administration | Drilling Productivity Report
Legacy
production
change
Permian
Natural gas production
Oil +1
thousand barrels/day
1,600
Production
from
new wells
2014
million cubic feet/day
8,000
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
2007
2008
2009
Net
change
Jan
5,046
MMcf/d
Gas +0
million cubic feet/day
month over month
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
8
9. Explanatory notes
December 2013
Drilling Productivity Report
The Drilling Productivity Report uses recent data on the total number of drilling rigs in operation along
with estimates of drilling productivity and estimated changes in production from existing oil and natural
gas wells to provide estimated changes in oil and natural gas production for six key fields. EIA’s
approach does not distinguish between oil-directed rigs and gas-directed rigs because once a well is
completed it may produce both oil and gas; more than half of the wells do that.
Monthly additions from one average rig
Monthly additions from one average rig represent EIA’s estimate of an average rig’s1 contribution to
production of oil and natural gas from new wells.2 The estimation of new-well production per rig uses
several months of recent historical data on total production from new wells for each field divided by the
region's monthly rig count, lagged by two months.3 Current- and next-month values are listed on the top
header. The month-over-month change is listed alongside, with +/- signs and color-coded arrows to
highlight the growth or decline in oil (brown) or natural gas (blue).
New-well oil/gas production per rig
Charts present historical estimated monthly additions from one average rig coupled with the number of
total drilling rigs as reported by Baker Hughes.
Legacy oil and natural gas production change
Charts present EIA’s estimates of total oil and gas production changes from all the wells other than the
new wells. The trend is dominated by the well depletion rates, but other circumstances can influence the
direction of the change. For example, well freeze-offs or hurricanes can cause production to significantly
decline in any given month, resulting in a production increase the next month when production simply
returns to normal levels.
Projected change in monthly oil/gas production
Charts present the combined effects of new-well production and changes to legacy production. Total
new-well production is offset by the anticipated change in legacy production to derive the net change in
production. The estimated change in production does not reflect external circumstances that can affect
the actual rates, such as infrastructure constraints, bad weather, or shut-ins based on environmental or
economic issues.
Oil/gas production
Charts present oil and natural gas production from both new and legacy wells since 2007. This
production is based on all wells reported to the state oil and gas agencies. Where state data are not
immediately available, EIA estimates the production based on estimated changes in new-well oil/gas
production and the corresponding legacy change.
Footnotes:
1. The monthly average rig count used in this report is calculated from weekly data on total oil and gas rigs
reported by Baker Hughes
2. A new well is defined as one that began producing for the first time in the previous month. Each well belongs to
the new-well category for only one month. Reworked and recompleted wells are excluded from the calculation.
3. Rig count data lag production data because EIA has observed that the best predictor of the number of new
wells beginning production in a given month is the count of rigs in operation two months earlier.
U. S. Energy Information Administration | Drilling Productivity Report
9
10. Sources
December 2013
Drilling Productivity Report
The data used in the preparation of this report come from the following sources. EIA is solely
responsible for the analysis, calculations, and conclusions.
Drilling Info (http://www.drillinginfo.com) Source of production, permit, and spud data for counties
associated with this report. Source of real-time rig location to estimate new wells spudded and completed
throughout the United States.
Baker Hughes (http://www.bakerhughes.com) Source of rig and well counts by county, state, and basin.
North Dakota Oil and Gas Division (https://www.dmr.nd.gov/oilgas) Source of well production, permit,
and completion data in the counties associated with this report in North Dakota
Railroad Commission of Texas (http://www.rrc.state.tx.us) Source of well production, permit, and
completion data in the counties associated with this report in Texas
Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection
(https://www.paoilandgasreporting.state.pa.us/publicreports/Modules/Welcome/Welcome.aspx) Source
of well production, permit, and completion data in the counties associated with this report in
Pennsylvania
West Virginia Department of Environmental Protection (http://www.dep.wv.gov/oil-andgas/Pages/default.aspx) Source of well production, permit, and completion data in the counties
associated with this report in West Virginia
Colorado Oil and Gas Conservation Commission (http://cogcc.state.co.us) Source of well production,
permit, and completion data in the counties associated with this report in Colorado
Wyoming Oil and Conservation Commission (http://wogcc.state.wy.us ) Source of well production,
permit, and completion data in the counties associated with this report in Wyoming
Louisiana Department of Natural Resources (http://dnr.louisiana.gov) Source of well production,
permit, and completion data in the counties associated with this report in Louisiana
U. S. Energy Information Administration | Drilling Productivity Report
10