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MIPIM 2011 – WRAP-UP Real EstateInvestment Post-Crisis:  What have welearned? Whatisnext? ,[object Object]
François Ortalo-MagneRobert E. WangardProfessor of Real EstateWisconsin School of Business,[object Object]
Financing more difficult
Looking for the lowestvolatilities
Regulationreinforced and becoming a real threat,[object Object]
This is true for all the markets which performed strongly
The US
The UK as well« Secondary property defined as the top quartile of regional offices by yield, as measured by IPD has been left behind in a recovery that has lifted the value of prime UK residential and commercial real estate: prices of secondary properties are 48% below peak levels, with no recovery in sight »  Wall Street Journal – Feb 2011
A two- tier market ,[object Object], Which offers a complementary approach through the stock market Successful: pure plays only, big caps, prime offices and shopping malls
How sustainable can a Two-Tier market be ? ,[object Object]
New sales and lack of buyers due to the lack of financing:  secondary property valuations might fall further.
There might be new covenants breaches.
Secondary assets still included in the investor’s portfolio’s: new losses still to come ?  And consequently, new redemptions? Funds might have to sell prime assets in order to finance them, thus diffusing the fallIs the Two-Tier market leading to a Two-Steps crisis ?
Financing more difficult  ,[object Object]
The problem came from the vanishing of the securitization and of the private equity,[object Object]
But Mezzanine  is risky	Not the same access to ,[object Object]
guarantees
Riskier financing in a risk averse environment  means: Higher yields requirements, And at the same time: focusing on prime property Is it realistic ? Source: Prequin

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MIPIM 2011 Wrap-up by Philippe Tannenbaum

  • 1.
  • 2.
  • 4. Looking for the lowestvolatilities
  • 5.
  • 6. This is true for all the markets which performed strongly
  • 8. The UK as well« Secondary property defined as the top quartile of regional offices by yield, as measured by IPD has been left behind in a recovery that has lifted the value of prime UK residential and commercial real estate: prices of secondary properties are 48% below peak levels, with no recovery in sight » Wall Street Journal – Feb 2011
  • 9.
  • 10.
  • 11. New sales and lack of buyers due to the lack of financing: secondary property valuations might fall further.
  • 12. There might be new covenants breaches.
  • 13. Secondary assets still included in the investor’s portfolio’s: new losses still to come ? And consequently, new redemptions? Funds might have to sell prime assets in order to finance them, thus diffusing the fallIs the Two-Tier market leading to a Two-Steps crisis ?
  • 14.
  • 15.
  • 16.
  • 18. Riskier financing in a risk averse environment means: Higher yields requirements, And at the same time: focusing on prime property Is it realistic ? Source: Prequin
  • 19.
  • 20. Risk adversity means: looking for lower volatilities
  • 21. Lower volatility means: lower profitability
  • 22.
  • 23. Low volatility, low performance:the model exists GermanHousingprices: no risk, no return
  • 24. Lowvolatility, low performance:the model exists German Commercial Property: more or less the same story
  • 25.
  • 26. On the other hand, note that the US Housing Reits top performed in 2010: 47% of total return RPX – IEIF Index of prices in the residentialsector Paris / Ile de France
  • 27.
  • 28. the risk is measured , asset class by asset class, and translated into proportional capital requirements
  • 29. also, there are disclosure and transparency requirements
  • 30. Due to a low relative volatility, direct property will be favored for Insurance companies, as well as mortgage loans for Banks: there will be lower capital requirements for these assets
  • 31.
  • 32. the funds status is not yet clear( or understandable)
  • 33. the listed property sector will be treated as part of the stock market, supposed to be the most volatile, therefore the most capital requiring. This could lead to reductions in the insurance companies’ holdings
  • 34. In France, an IEIF calculation indicates that 1/10th of the market cap of the listed property companies could have to come back from the insurers’ portfolios. This is not really significant, but this could cap the market prices
  • 35.
  • 36. On the long term, this could reveal unmanageable
  • 37. There are two solutions
  • 38. Repayment : a heavy burden, with a risk of recession and later, due to the lack of cash, a risk of deflation. The worst case scenario for real estate
  • 39. Inflation: real estate friendly (but not for the listed sector, which will have to absorb the rates increases)Source: IMF / Soc. Gen.
  • 40.
  • 41. The case for a less positive outlook
  • 42. Recovery in the prime segment
  • 46. Inflation is good for the real estate
  • 47. A Two-Tier market is a threat for the market as a whole
  • 48. Private finance : not realistic
  • 49. Secure products: where are the takers?
  • 50. Regulation: bad for indirect property
  • 51. Inflation is bad for the stock markets
  • 52.
  • 53. It is interesting to notice that the Index is currently trading at some relatively low levels. Those are far from the levels reached in crisis times.
  • 54. In other terms, the markets seem to be confident for the futureSource: CBOE