Explain why decision making is an
important component of good
Discuss the difference between
programmed and non-programmed
decision and the decision characteristics
of certainty and uncertainty.
Explain the process by which managers
actually make decisions in the real world.
Identify the six steps used in managerial
Describe four personal decision styles
used by managers and explain the biases
that frequently cause managers to make
Identify and explain techniques for
innovative group decision making.
4. DECISION – is a choice made from
DECISION MAKING – is the process of
identifying problems and opportunities and
then resolving them
6. Programmed Decisions Nonprogrammed Decisions
Problem situations that occur often
to enable rules
situations that are unique
or poorly defined and
Procedure Dependence on policies,
rules, and definite
Necessity for certainty,
intuition, tolerance for
ambiguity, creative problem
Business firm Periodic reorders of
Diversification into new
products and markets.
University Necessary grade-point
average for good academic
Construction into new
classrooms and facilities.
Health care Procedure for admitting
Purchase of experimental
Government Merit system for promotion
of state employees.
Reorganization of state
9. FACING CERTAINTY AND UNCERTAINTY
Certainty: the information needed is
Risk: the future outcome is subject to
chance regardless of the information
Uncertainty: goals are clear but
information about future events are
Ambiguity: the goals and/or problem are
unclear and difficult to define
10. CONDITIONS THAT AFFECT THE POSSIBILITY OF
LOW Possibility of Failure HIGH
Certainty Risk Uncertainty Ambiguity
11. AGING AND DECISION MAKING: HOW AGING
AFFECTS DECISIONS UNDER UNCERTAINTY
(1) Older adults are less willing to take financial
risks than young adults
(2) Ambiguity behavior changes with age
(3) Young and older subjects gamble less in
ambiguity conditions than in risk conditions.
12. The study only partially confirms our hypotheses:
As older adults seem to be equally willing to take
risks as young adults are (refuting hypothesis)
Ambiguity behavior effectively differs with age
(confirming hypothesis 2)
And young subjects do gamble less in ambiguous
conditions than in risky conditions, but older adults
show no significant difference between risk and
ambiguity behavior (partially confirming hypothesis
14. Classical Model - A decision-making
model based on the assumption that
managers should make logical decisions
that will be in the organization’s best
Views the manager as acting rationally in a
certain world. Decision maker is fully
informed about the possible alternative.
15. Administrative Model - A decision-making model that
describes how managers actually make decisions in
situations characterized by non-programmed decisions,
uncertainty, and ambiguity.
Bounded Rationality - People have the time and
cognitive ability to process only a limited amount of
information on which to base decisions.
Satisficing - To choose the first solution alternative
that satisfies minimal decision criteria, regardless of
whether better solutions are presumed to exist.
Intuition - The immediate comprehension of a
decision situation based on past experience but
without conscious thought.
16. Political Model –is useful for making non-
programmed decisions when conditions
are uncertain, information is limited and
there are manager conflicts, what goals to
pursue or what course of action to take.
Coalition – is an informal alliance
among managers who support a
Coalition Building – is the process of
forming alliances among managers.
17. THE DECISION - MAKING PROCESS
Double check on ethical
18. BARRIERS TO EFFECTIVE DECISION
A. PSYCHOLOGICAL BIASES
○ Illusion of control
○ Framing effects
○ Discount the future
B. TIME PRESSURES
C. SOCIAL REALITIES
21. Being influenced by initial impressions.
Seeing what you want to see
Rely Too Much on Past Experience
Addicted to Corporate Politics
Lack Clarity of goals
Don’t See the Opportunity
Don’t Trust Themselves to Lead
22. WHAT CAN LEADERS DO TO INCREASE
THEIR CHANCES OF AVOIDING PITFALLS?
RED FLAG CONDITIONS
I N A P P R O PRIA T E
A T T A C H MENTS
M I S L E A D I NG
P R E J U D G E
M I S L E A D I NG
E X P E R I ENCE S
I N A P P R O P RIAT E
S E L F - I N T E REST
24. METHODS AND TECHNIQUES
ADVANTAGES AND PITFALLS OF GROUP
NOMINAL GROUP TECHNIQUE
Group can think better than individuals because they can view problems in
multiple perspectives because group members usually possess different
knowledge, skills abilities and experiences. They can perform better on
complex tasks and make better decisions than individuals.
Group can find and access much more information than individuals alone.
With groups we can generate more alternative solutions
People who participate in a group discussion are more likely to understand why
the decision was made. They will have heard the relevant arguments both for
the chosen alternative and against the rejected alternatives.
Group discussion typically leads to a higher level of commitment to the
decision. Buying into the proposed solution translates into high motivation to
ensure that it is executed well.
Groupthink – a barrier to good decision making caused by pressure
within the group for members to agree with each other. It occurs in a
highly cohesive group when group members feel intense pressure to
agree with each other so that the group can approve a proposed solution.
Groupthink is most likely to occur under the following conditions.
The group is insulated from others with different perspective
Sometimes one group member dominates the discussion
The group leader begins by expressing a strong preference for a particular decision.
The group has to established procedure for systematically defining problems and
Group members have similar backgrounds and experiences
Goal displacement often occurs in groups
28. Cognitive Conflict – C - Type conflicts - Focuses on
problem and issue related differences of opinion.
Two methods of introducing structured c-type conflict into
the group decision making process.
Affective Conflict – A- Type Conflict -Refers to the
emotional reaction that can occur when disagreements
become personal rather than professional.
29. DELPHI TECHNIQUE
A decision making method in
which members of a panel of
experts respond to questions
and to each other until reaching
agreement on an issue.
A decision making method in which group members are added
to a group discussion one at a time (like a stepladder) the
existing group members listen to each new members thought,
ideas, and recommendations; then the group shares the ideas
and suggestions that it had already considered, discusses the
new and old ideas, and makes a decision.
30. ELECTRONIC BRAINSTORMING
Brainstorming - a decision making method in which group
members build on each other’s’ ideas to generate as many
alternative solutions as possible.
– a decision making method
in which group members use
computers to build on each
other’s ideas and generate as
many alternative solution as
possible. This overcomes the
with face-to-face brainstorming.
Production Blocking – a disadvantage or
faced-to-faced brainstorming in which a
group must wait to share an idea because
another member is presenting an idea.
Evaluation Apprehension – fears of what
others will think of you.
33. MANAGEMENT SCIENCE APPROACH
Use of statistics to identify relevant variables
Remove human element
Very successful for military problems
Good tool for decisions where variables can
be identified and measured
A drawback of management science is that
quantitative data are not rich and lack tacit
35. INCREMENTAL MODEL
Managers select alternative courses of action that are only slightly, or
incrementally, different from those used in the past.
Focus on structured sequence of activities from discovery to solution
Perceived to lessen the chances of making a mistake
They correct or avoid mistakes through a succession of incremental
Tries to explain how organizations improve their programmed decisions
Large decisions are a collection of small choices
Decision interrupts are barriers
– Identification Phase
– Development Phase
– Selection Phase
– Dynamic Factors
36. GARBAGE CAN MODEL
Model of organizational decision making depicting a chaotic process and
seemingly random decisions
Decision makers are as likely to start decision making from the solution
side as the problem side
Create decision-making opportunities that they can solve with ready-
made solutions based on their competencies and skills
Different coalitions may champion different alternatives
Decision making becomes a “garbage can” in which
problems, solutions, and people all mix and contend
for organizational action.
Selection of an alternative depends on which
person’s or group’s definition of the current situation holds sway.
37. Consequences of the Garbage Can Model
1. Solutions may be proposed even when
problems do not exist
2. Choices are made without solving
3. Problems may persist without
4. A few problems are solved
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