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In Pursuit of Reality

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By 2016, VR was the definitive tech media darling, promising the ability to not just replicate an experience, but to convince people of the validity of alternate realities. Venture funding flowed, content studios proliferated, and hardware launch dates were eagerly anticipated. Fast forward to 2017 and the equipment is still bulky and expensive, UX issues like nausea persist, and key immersive elements like haptic feedback and social interaction are still primitive. While some experiences are transformative, others underwhelm; market reports vary wildly on future investment and revenue projections.

So where exactly are we in the simulated reality hype cycle? Read the full article here: http://www.luminary-labs.com/insight/in-pursuit-of-reality/

Veröffentlicht in: Technologie
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In Pursuit of Reality

  1. 1. 1Luminary Labs | June 2017 in pursuit of REALITY Kate Machtiger & Michelle ShevinLuminary Labs | June 2017
  2. 2. 2Luminary Labs | June 2017Luminary Labs | June 2017 Since the earliest cave paintings, humans have tried to represent their reality.
  3. 3. 3Luminary Labs | June 2017Luminary Labs | June 2017 With each new tool, the accuracy of this representation has improved: seeing believingexperiencing
  4. 4. 4Luminary Labs | June 2017Luminary Labs | June 2017 So, where are we today?
  5. 5. 5Luminary Labs | June 2017Luminary Labs | June 2017 First, the basics
  6. 6. 6Luminary Labs | June 2017Luminary Labs | June 2017 What are AR and VR?
  7. 7. 7Luminary Labs | June 2017Luminary Labs | June 2017 Reality The real world.
  8. 8. 8Luminary Labs | June 2017Luminary Labs | June 2017 Augmented reality A blending of virtual and real life, allowing users to interact with virtual elements in the real world (also known as mixed reality).
  9. 9. 9Luminary Labs | June 2017Luminary Labs | June 2017 Virtual reality A fabricated, immersive virtual world, isolated from the real world.
  10. 10. 10Luminary Labs | June 2017Luminary Labs | June 2017 The virtual and augmented reality market is growing.
  11. 11. 11Luminary Labs | June 2017Luminary Labs | June 2017 2016 revenue: $6 billion 2020 revenue: $143 billion* *per IDC estimates Hardware, software, third-party applications, consulting services, and integration services.
  12. 12. 12Luminary Labs | June 2017Luminary Labs | June 2017 Many will tell you our virtual future is here...
  13. 13. 13Luminary Labs | June 2017Luminary Labs | June 2017 QUARTZ VOGUE UK BUSINESS INSIDER THE GUARDIAN FRESH BUSINESS THINKING
  14. 14. 14Luminary Labs | June 2017Luminary Labs | June 2017 Others are not so sure...
  15. 15. 15Luminary Labs | June 2017Luminary Labs | June 2017 PATENTLY APPLE NEW YORK TIMES THE VERGE WALL STREET JOURNAL RE/CODE
  16. 16. 16Luminary Labs | June 2017Luminary Labs | June 2017 So where are we really?
  17. 17. 17Luminary Labs | June 2017Luminary Labs | June 2017 Early adoption Wide adoption We are here Holdout adoption
  18. 18. 18Luminary Labs | June 2017 When will we hit the tipping point?
  19. 19. 19Luminary Labs | June 2017 When the technology facilitates not just experience, but true belief: seeing believingexperiencing
  20. 20. 20Luminary Labs | June 2017 How soon will it happen? History offers clues.
  21. 21. 21Luminary Labs | June 2017 Seeing
  22. 22. 22Luminary Labs | June 2017 Early environments stretched the imagination through the eyes.
  23. 23. 23Luminary Labs | June 2017 Image: Wikimedia 1780s Panorama paintings drew patrons into a round room where they were surrounded by a floor-to-ceiling, 360-degree scene. Art imitates life
  24. 24. 24Luminary Labs | June 2017 Image: Wikimedia The eyes play tricks Dioramas allowed the audience to stay in one place while the scenery moved in front of them. Lighting effects simulated movement and the passage of time. 1820s
  25. 25. 25Luminary Labs | June 2017 Seeing Experiencing
  26. 26. 26Luminary Labs | June 2017 New contraptions affronted the senses, but barriers between virtual and real remained.
  27. 27. 27Luminary Labs | June 2017 Image: Wikimedia What’s your vector, Victor? As new modes of transportation proliferated, simulators emerged as training tools. Valves and pumps offered airplane pilots realistic dashboard readings, while model cars measured drivers’ reaction times. 1920s
  28. 28. 28Luminary Labs | June 2017 Image: Wikimedia Watch n’ sniff The Sensorama offered a new paradigm of “realism” in entertainment, bringing sight, sound, smell, and temperature together to create an entirely artificial immersive experience. However, the project failed to capture the interest of the movie industry, and ceased before it could reach the masses. 1950s
  29. 29. 29Luminary Labs | June 2017 Image: Wikimedia Hooked on a feeling The first head-mounted display, Ivan Sutherland’s “sword of Damocles” hung precariously from the ceiling. The contraption allowed the visuals—a floating cube within a wireframe room— to shift with head movements. 1960s
  30. 30. 30Luminary Labs | June 2017 Image: Wikimedia Body language Computer scientist Jaron Lanier founded VPL, the first business to sell VR products. Their motion- tracking gloves and data suits offered a way to interact with virtual elements through movements and gestures. 1980s
  31. 31. 31Luminary Labs | June 2017 Image: Dr. Waldern/Virtuality Group - Dr. Jonathan D. Waldern Let the games begin The first major commercial VR devices, Virtuality headsets, joysticks, and gloves used magnetic tracking to simulate movements within a gaming environment, offering a new level of 3D immersion for techies and arcade goers. 1990s
  32. 32. 32Luminary Labs | June 2017 Image: Flickr user jdlasica I am therefore iPod The MyVu capitalized on video’s newfound portability, allowing users to watch iPod videos projected in front of their eyes. It roughly simulated the experience of watching a large-screen TV. 2006
  33. 33. 33Luminary Labs | June 2017 Image: Wikimedia Glass houses Projecting an interactive display in front of the eyes, Google Glass supported tasks like taking photos or checking messages. But the product failed to gain traction with users and privacy fears scared away the public. 2013
  34. 34. 34Luminary Labs | June 2017 Seeing Experiencing Believing
  35. 35. 35Luminary Labs | June 2017 A range of technologies begin to convince people of the validity of alternate realities.
  36. 36. 36Luminary Labs | June 2017 Image: Wikimedia Was it all a dream? Second Life’s avatar-driven experience went beyond pure entertainment, letting people craft alternate lives in a full-fledged virtual world. With its own currency, brands, and social interactions, Second Life came to supplant reality for engrossed users. 1990s – 2000s
  37. 37. 37Luminary Labs | June 2017 Image: Flickr user Rafael Valentim Hype machines The Oculus Rift ushered in a new era of VR hype with a step change in headset technology. Through motion tracking and powerful image displays optimized for human eyes, the device allowed users to lose themselves in a nearly-realistic 3D world. 2014 – 2015
  38. 38. 38Luminary Labs | June 2017 Image: Flickr user woodleywonderworks On the road to Viridian City Global AR phenomenon Pokémon Go sent millions of smartphone users in pursuit of virtual characters superimposed onto real places. Its popularity offered a glimpse into the market potential for engaging AR experiences. 2016
  39. 39. 39Luminary Labs | June 2017 Form follows function As we develop the power to make virtual experiences more believable, it’s time to go beyond entertainment and serve real needs. One early effort in this area is the EdSim Challenge, which seeks VR/AR simulations that will prepare America’s students for the future workforce. 2017
  40. 40. 40Luminary Labs | June 2017 What needs to happen to make the hype real?
  41. 41. 41Luminary Labs | June 2017 5 crucial VR improvements are on the horizon.
  42. 42. 42Luminary Labs | June 2017 Less nausea Better blending of “virtual” and “real” will help combat motion sickness. Even adding a virtual “nose” has been shown to make a big difference.
  43. 43. 43Luminary Labs | June 2017 Lower costs High-quality VR headsets still cost hundreds of dollars. But over the next few years, Tractica estimates that prices will decline 15% per year. $
  44. 44. 44Luminary Labs | June 2017 More portability Today’s devices are often tethered or bulky. Lighter mobile devices with better resolution and battery life will generate new use cases and improve the value proposition.
  45. 45. 45Luminary Labs | June 2017 Addition of social elements Most experiences are currently solitary. Social capabilities will uncover new applications for VR/AR and encourage more prolonged use.
  46. 46. 46Luminary Labs | June 2017 Better exploration of safety Wearing an isolating headset can come with risks (e.g., walking into walls, tripping over tethers, losing your balance). Furthermore, scientists have yet to fully explore how VR experiences affect mental development.
  47. 47. 47Luminary Labs | June 2017 What does this mean for business leaders?
  48. 48. 48Luminary Labs | June 2017 A few questions to ask yourself... Can today’s technology address a real problem in my company? Is my team or company strategy early-adopter or wait-and-see? What would the technology need to look like before I invest?
  49. 49. 49Luminary Labs | June 2017 Sign up here for the Lab Report Monthly sensemaking for the future-ready executive. Follow us @LuminaryLabs
  50. 50. 50Luminary Labs | June 2017

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