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Retailing	
  in	
  Scotland’s	
  Largest	
  Towns	
  &	
  Ci6es	
  2015	
  
Sharing knowledge to
create a better place to be.LDC
Sco;sh	
  Town	
  	
  
Centres	
  2015	
  
By	
  The	
  Local	
  Data	
  Company	
  
Presented	
  21st	
  October	
  2015	
  
#LDCInsight	
  
Keynote	
  presenta=ons	
  
Leigh	
  Sparks	
  
University	
  of	
  S=rling	
  
	
  
MaChew	
  Hopkinson	
  
Local	
  Data	
  Company	
  
#LDCInsight	
  
Chair	
  
Jane	
  Bradley	
  
The	
  Scotsman	
  
The	
  panel	
  
Phil	
  Pren6ce	
  
Scotland’s	
  Town	
  Partnership	
  
Margaret	
  McCulloch	
  
Member	
  Of	
  The	
  ScoGsh	
  Parliament	
  
Audrey	
  Michie	
  
Aberdeenshire	
  Council	
  
Retailing	
  in	
  Scotland’s	
  Largest	
  Towns	
  &	
  Ci6es	
  2015	
  
Sharing knowledge to
create a better place to be.LDC
Today’s	
  agenda	
  
Introduc6on	
  and	
  Research	
  methodology	
  
Research	
  ques6ons	
  and	
  findings	
  
Pu;ng	
  Scotland	
  in	
  context	
  
Panel	
  discussion	
  and	
  Q&A	
  
#LDCInsight	
  
Retailing	
  in	
  Scotland’s	
  Largest	
  Towns	
  &	
  Ci6es	
  2015	
  
Sharing knowledge to
create a better place to be.LDC
Quality	
  of	
  life	
  is	
  not	
  only	
  
about	
  what	
  you	
  find	
  in	
  
shops;	
  it’s	
  about	
  the	
  
landscape.	
  
”	
  
“	
  
Donald	
  Tusk,	
  President	
  of	
  the	
  European	
  Council	
  
#LDCInsight	
  
Retailing	
  in	
  Scotland’s	
  Largest	
  Towns	
  &	
  Ci6es	
  2015	
  
Sharing knowledge to
create a better place to be.LDC
What	
  do	
  we	
  do?	
  
Gap	
  Analysis	
  
Impar=al	
  
Evidence	
  	
  
based	
  research	
  
PorTolio	
  Analysis	
  
Openings	
  &	
  Closures	
  
Persistent	
  vacancy	
  
Retail	
  Parks	
  
Shopping	
  Centres	
  
Health	
  Scores	
  
Diversity	
  Indices	
  
FooTall	
  
Catchment	
  Profiles	
  
Analy=cs	
  
Na=onwide	
  
Vacancy	
  rates	
  
Insight	
  
Knowledge	
  
#LDCInsight	
  
Retailing	
  in	
  Scotland’s	
  Largest	
  Towns	
  &	
  Ci6es	
  2015	
  
Sharing knowledge to
create a better place to be.LDC
How	
  we	
  do	
  it?	
  
Tweet using #LDCInsights
65,000	
  
updates	
  a	
  
month	
  
Retailing	
  in	
  Scotland’s	
  Largest	
  Towns	
  &	
  Ci6es	
  2015	
  
Sharing knowledge to
create a better place to be.LDC
Evidence	
  based	
  analysis	
  
Ci6es	
  &	
  Towns	
  
(50+	
  units)	
  
850	
  
Shopping	
  Centres	
  
(10+	
  units)	
  
675	
  
Retail	
  Parks	
  
(3+	
  units)	
  
1,075	
  
Tweet using #LDCInsights
Retailing	
  in	
  Scotland’s	
  Largest	
  Towns	
  &	
  Ci6es	
  2015	
  
Sharing knowledge to
create a better place to be.LDC
Scotland	
  Coverage	
  
141	
  
LOCATIONS	
  TRACKED	
  
46,599	
  
BUSINESSES	
  TRACKED	
  
#LDCInsight	
  
Retail	
  Parks	
  
87	
  
67	
  
Shopping	
  centres	
  
Retailing	
  in	
  Scotland’s	
  Largest	
  Towns	
  &	
  Ci6es	
  2015	
  
Sharing knowledge to
create a better place to be.LDC
Retailing	
  in	
  Scotland’s	
  Largest	
  
Towns	
  and	
  Ci6es	
  2015	
  
Professor	
  Leigh	
  Sparks,	
  
Ins6tute	
  for	
  Retail	
  Studies,	
  
University	
  of	
  S6rling	
  
Retailing	
  in	
  Scotland’s	
  Largest	
  Towns	
  &	
  Ci6es	
  2015	
  
Sharing knowledge to
create a better place to be.LDC
Background	
  
•  The	
  crisis	
  of	
  the	
  high	
  street	
  
and	
  the	
  crisis	
  of	
  the	
  town	
  
centre	
  
•  From	
  Portas	
  to	
  Fraser	
  
•  ScoGsh	
  Government’s	
  
Town	
  Centre	
  Ac=on	
  Plan	
  
•  Change	
  will	
  not	
  be	
  swia	
  
Retailing	
  in	
  Scotland’s	
  Largest	
  Towns	
  &	
  Ci6es	
  2015	
  
Sharing knowledge to
create a better place to be.LDC
Town	
  Centers	
  
•  Retailing	
  is	
  important	
  
•  Retailing	
  is	
  not	
  the	
  sole	
  driver	
  but	
  vital	
  
nonetheless	
  
Retailing	
  in	
  Scotland’s	
  Largest	
  Towns	
  &	
  Ci6es	
  2015	
  
Sharing knowledge to
create a better place to be.LDC
Data	
  
•  Local	
  Data	
  Company/University	
  of	
  S=rling	
  
•  Third	
  ScoGsh	
  Summit	
  
•  101	
  places	
  (towns	
  and	
  ci=es)	
  
•  Using	
  given	
  boundaries	
  and	
  data	
  from	
  2012	
  
Retailing	
  in	
  Scotland’s	
  Largest	
  Towns	
  &	
  Ci6es	
  2015	
  
Sharing knowledge to
create a better place to be.LDC
Na6onal	
  Vacancy	
  Rates	
  2013-­‐15	
  
Retailing	
  in	
  Scotland’s	
  Largest	
  Towns	
  &	
  Ci6es	
  2015	
  
Sharing knowledge to
create a better place to be.LDC
Na=onal	
  vacancy	
  
rates	
  
H1	
  2013	
  –	
  	
  
H1	
  2015	
  
Tweet using #LDCInsights
England ScotlandWales
Vacancyrate(%)
16.0
17.0
15.0
14.0
13.0
12.0
11.0
H1 2013 H2 2013 H1 2014 H1 2015H2 2014
10.0
Source: LDC
Retailing	
  in	
  Scotland’s	
  Largest	
  Towns	
  &	
  Ci6es	
  2015	
  
Sharing knowledge to
create a better place to be.LDC
Average	
  retail	
  vacancy	
  rates	
  by	
  town	
  
#LDCInsight	
  
Retailing	
  in	
  Scotland’s	
  Largest	
  Towns	
  &	
  Ci6es	
  2015	
  
Sharing knowledge to
create a better place to be.LDC
Vacancy	
  rates	
  by	
  loca=on	
  type	
  2015	
  
#LDCInsight	
  
Retailing	
  in	
  Scotland’s	
  Largest	
  Towns	
  &	
  Ci6es	
  2015	
  
Sharing knowledge to
create a better place to be.LDC
Vacancy	
  rates	
  by	
  loca=on	
  type	
  2014	
  
#LDCInsight	
  
Retailing	
  in	
  Scotland’s	
  Largest	
  Towns	
  &	
  Ci6es	
  2015	
  
Sharing knowledge to
create a better place to be.LDC
Vacancy	
  rates	
  by	
  loca=on	
  type	
  2013	
  
#LDCInsight	
  
Retailing	
  in	
  Scotland’s	
  Largest	
  Towns	
  &	
  Ci6es	
  2015	
  
Sharing knowledge to
create a better place to be.LDC
What	
  is	
  the	
  Retail	
  Scale	
  of	
  Sco;sh	
  Towns	
  
and	
  Ci6es?	
  
•  Glasgow	
  and	
  Edinburgh	
  dominate	
  the	
  retail	
  scene	
  
•  There	
  is	
  a	
  complicated	
  mix	
  of	
  larger	
  towns	
  and	
  smaller	
  ci=es	
  
and	
  considerable	
  scale	
  overlap	
  
•  Only	
  27	
  towns	
  have	
  seen	
  the	
  number	
  of	
  retail	
  premises	
  since	
  
2012	
  
•  Ci=es	
  and	
  larger	
  towns	
  seem	
  to	
  be	
  on	
  a	
  different	
  trajectory	
  to	
  
the	
  smaller	
  towns	
  in	
  our	
  subset,	
  where	
  retail	
  premise	
  
numbers	
  have	
  edged	
  up	
  slightly	
  
Retailing	
  in	
  Scotland’s	
  Largest	
  Towns	
  &	
  Ci6es	
  2015	
  
Sharing knowledge to
create a better place to be.LDC
What	
  is	
  the	
  Vacancy	
  rate	
  and	
  How	
  is	
  it	
  
Changing?	
  
•  The	
  number	
  of	
  retail	
  premises	
  vacant	
  in	
  ci=es	
  has	
  reduced	
  
notably	
  since	
  2012	
  
•  The	
  vacancy	
  rates	
  in	
  towns	
  and	
  ci=es	
  has	
  fallen	
  since	
  2012	
  
and	
  now	
  stands	
  at	
  an	
  average	
  of	
  13%	
  (cf	
  14%	
  in	
  2013)	
  
•  The	
  varia=on	
  in	
  vacancy	
  rates	
  has	
  reduced	
  sugges=ng	
  that	
  
towns	
  with	
  the	
  worst	
  situa=ons	
  have	
  begun	
  to	
  tackle	
  them	
  
successfully	
  
Retailing	
  in	
  Scotland’s	
  Largest	
  Towns	
  &	
  Ci6es	
  2015	
  
Sharing knowledge to
create a better place to be.LDC
What	
  is	
  the	
  Vacancy	
  rate	
  and	
  How	
  is	
  it	
  
Changing?	
  -­‐	
  2	
  
•  Biggar	
  has	
  the	
  lowest	
  vacancy	
  rate	
  and	
  Banff	
  the	
  highest	
  
•  Towns	
  have	
  very	
  different	
  trajectories	
  with	
  half	
  the	
  towns	
  
seeing	
  falling	
  vacancy	
  rates	
  and	
  half	
  seeing	
  increasing	
  rates	
  
•  Persistent	
  vacancy	
  is	
  highest	
  in	
  Banff	
  and	
  lowest	
  in	
  Alness	
  and	
  
Inverurie	
  
•  22	
  towns	
  and	
  1	
  city	
  (Dundee)	
  have	
  perisitent	
  vacancy	
  rates	
  
above	
  10%	
  i.e.	
  1	
  in	
  10	
  premises	
  have	
  been	
  vacant	
  for	
  three	
  
years	
  
Retailing	
  in	
  Scotland’s	
  Largest	
  Towns	
  &	
  Ci6es	
  2015	
  
Sharing knowledge to
create a better place to be.LDC
What	
  is	
  the	
  Retail	
  Structure	
  of	
  our	
  Towns	
  
and	
  Ci6es?	
  
•  Retailing	
  is	
  the	
  major	
  component	
  of	
  the	
  premises	
  in	
  the	
  towns	
  and	
  
ci=es,	
  with	
  ci=es	
  being	
  more	
  leisure	
  oriented	
  than	
  most	
  towns	
  
•  Gourock	
  is	
  the	
  most	
  independent	
  retail	
  town	
  and	
  Gretna	
  the	
  least	
  
•  The	
  least	
  independent	
  towns	
  tend	
  to	
  be	
  dominated	
  by	
  planned	
  centres	
  
•  There	
  is	
  no	
  discernible	
  pajern	
  in	
  terms	
  of	
  towns	
  becoming	
  more	
  or	
  less	
  
independent	
  in	
  their	
  make	
  up	
  
Retailing	
  in	
  Scotland’s	
  Largest	
  Towns	
  &	
  Ci6es	
  2015	
  
Sharing knowledge to
create a better place to be.LDC
What	
  is	
  the	
  Retail	
  Structure	
  of	
  our	
  
Towns	
  and	
  Ci6es?	
  -­‐2	
  
•  Towns	
  and	
  ci=es	
  are	
  becoming	
  more	
  service	
  premise	
  
focused	
  
•  There	
  has	
  been	
  a	
  reduc=on	
  in	
  the	
  propor=on	
  of	
  
comparison	
  retailing	
  units	
  in	
  many	
  towns,	
  perhaps	
  
reflec=ng	
  the	
  impact	
  of	
  the	
  internet	
  
Retailing	
  in	
  Scotland’s	
  Largest	
  Towns	
  &	
  Ci6es	
  2015	
  
Sharing knowledge to
create a better place to be.LDC
What	
  is	
  the	
  Retail	
  Structure	
  of	
  our	
  
Towns	
  and	
  Ci6es?	
  -­‐	
  3	
  
•  Penicuik	
  has	
  the	
  highest	
  propor=on	
  of	
  charity	
  retailers	
  and	
  Burn=sland	
  the	
  
lowest	
  
•  Ardrossan	
  has	
  the	
  highest	
  BMG	
  Index	
  and	
  Callendar	
  the	
  lowest	
  
•  55%	
  of	
  towns	
  saw	
  an	
  increase	
  in	
  the	
  charity	
  shop	
  propor=on	
  since	
  23012,	
  
compared	
  to	
  40%	
  for	
  BMG	
  
•  29	
  towns	
  saw	
  increases	
  in	
  both	
  charity	
  shop	
  and	
  BMG	
  Index	
  measures,	
  
compared	
  to	
  34	
  towns	
  which	
  saw	
  decreases	
  in	
  both	
  
Retailing	
  in	
  Scotland’s	
  Largest	
  Towns	
  &	
  Ci6es	
  2015	
  
Sharing knowledge to
create a better place to be.LDC
Conclusions	
  
•  Vacancy	
  rate	
  con=nues	
  to	
  fall	
  
–  Economy	
  
–  Restructuring	
  
–  Adjustment	
  
•  Towns	
  have	
  differing	
  trajectories	
  
•  Dis=nc=veness	
  and	
  adjustment	
  are	
  being	
  driven	
  from	
  the	
  
ground	
  up	
  
Retailing	
  in	
  Scotland’s	
  Largest	
  Towns	
  &	
  Ci6es	
  2015	
  
Sharing knowledge to
create a better place to be.LDC
Web:	
  www.s=rlingretail.com	
  
Email:	
  Leigh.sparks@s=r.ac.uk	
  
Telephone:	
  01786	
  467384	
  
Twijer:	
  sparks_s=rling	
  
Contact	
  Points	
  
Retailing	
  in	
  Scotland’s	
  Largest	
  Towns	
  &	
  Ci6es	
  2015	
  
Sharing knowledge to
create a better place to be.LDC
What	
  is	
  happening	
  GB	
  wide?	
  
	
  
Retailing	
  in	
  Scotland’s	
  Largest	
  Towns	
  &	
  Ci6es	
  2015	
  
Sharing knowledge to
create a better place to be.LDC
Retail	
  sales	
  –	
  2010-­‐2015	
  
#LDCInsights	
  Source:	
  BDO	
  High	
  Street	
  Tracker	
  
-­‐5	
  
-­‐10	
  
2010	
   2011	
   2012	
   2013	
   2014	
   2015	
  
Overall	
   Lifestyle	
   Fashion	
   Homeware	
  
15	
  
10	
  
5	
  
0	
  
Retailing	
  in	
  Scotland’s	
  Largest	
  Towns	
  &	
  Ci6es	
  2015	
  
Sharing knowledge to
create a better place to be.LDC
UK	
  Consumer	
  Confidence	
  2010-­‐2015	
  
#LDCInsights	
  Source:	
  HM	
  Treasury	
  
10	
  
5	
  
0	
  
-­‐5	
  
-­‐10	
  
-­‐15	
  
-­‐20	
  
-­‐25	
  
-­‐30	
  
-­‐35	
  
2010	
   2011	
   2012	
   2013	
   2014	
   2015	
  
Retailing	
  in	
  Scotland’s	
  Largest	
  Towns	
  &	
  Ci6es	
  2015	
  
Sharing knowledge to
create a better place to be.LDC
Retailing	
  in	
  Scotland’s	
  Largest	
  Towns	
  &	
  Ci6es	
  2015	
  
Sharing knowledge to
create a better place to be.LDC
Shopper	
  Behaviour	
  
#LDCInsights	
  
90%
80%
70%
60%
100%
50%
40%
18-24 35-4425-34 45-54 55+
30%
20%
10%
0%
33.6 32.9
46.4
20.7
54.6
30.4
37.6
37.8
33.1
25.7
14.8
18.0
19.5
20.3
17.6
3.5
6.3
4.0
6.1 3.8
3.13.9
3.9 5.2 4.0
Shop mostly in store
Research online - buy in store Shop mostly online
Shop online - collect in store
Other
Research in store - buy online
Source:	
  ONS	
  
Retailing	
  in	
  Scotland’s	
  Largest	
  Towns	
  &	
  Ci6es	
  2015	
  
Sharing knowledge to
create a better place to be.LDC
GB	
  Shop	
  	
  
vacancy	
  rates	
  
2008	
  -­‐	
  2015	
  
Tweet using #LDCInsights
Source: LDC
Shopvacancyrate(%)
16.0
14.0
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
2008-12
2009-06
2009-12
2010-06
2010-12
2011-06
2011-12
2012-06
2012-12
2013-06
2013-12
2014-06
2014-12
2015-06
0.0
Retailing	
  in	
  Scotland’s	
  Largest	
  Towns	
  &	
  Ci6es	
  2015	
  
Sharing knowledge to
create a better place to be.LDC
Shopping	
  centre	
  
vacancy	
  rates	
  
H1	
  2013	
  –	
  	
  
H1	
  2015	
  
Tweet using #LDCInsights
England ScotlandWales
Vacancyrate(%)
19.0
20.0
18.0
17.0
14.0
16.0
13.0
15.0
12.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
H1 2013 H2 2013 H1 2014 H1 2015H2 2014
7.0
Source: LDC
Retailing	
  in	
  Scotland’s	
  Largest	
  Towns	
  &	
  Ci6es	
  2015	
  
Sharing knowledge to
create a better place to be.LDC
Vacancy	
  in	
  	
  
retail	
  parks	
  
H1	
  2013	
  –	
  	
  
H1	
  2015	
  
Tweet using #LDCInsights
England ScotlandWales
Vacancyrate(%)
12.0
13.0
11.0
10.0
9.0
8.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
H1 2013 H2 2013 H1 2014 H1 2015H2 2014
4.0
Source: LDC
Retailing	
  in	
  Scotland’s	
  Largest	
  Towns	
  &	
  Ci6es	
  2015	
  
Sharing knowledge to
create a better place to be.LDC
Persistent	
  vacancy	
  
by	
  %	
  of	
  total	
  units	
  
H1	
  2015	
  
Tweet using #LDCInsights
Source: LDC
Less than 1 year 2-3 years 3+ years1-2 years
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Small
High
Street
Large
High
Street
Shopping
Centre
Retail
Park
Medium
High
Street
3.7%
4.3%
5.0%
5.6%
2.1%
1.6%
2.3%
2.2%
3.0%
1.4%
1.1%
1.4%
1.4%
2.1%
1.3%
2.9%
3.6%
3.9%
4.2%
1.9%
Retailing	
  in	
  Scotland’s	
  Largest	
  Towns	
  &	
  Ci6es	
  2015	
  
Sharing knowledge to
create a better place to be.LDC
GB	
  Openings	
  &	
  Closures	
  H1	
  2015	
  
#LDCInsights	
  
Numberofunits
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
-10,000
-15,000
10,112
-10,693
Openings Closures
Source:	
  Local	
  Data	
  Company	
  
Retailing	
  in	
  Scotland’s	
  Largest	
  Towns	
  &	
  Ci6es	
  2015	
  
Sharing knowledge to
create a better place to be.LDC
GB	
  Openings	
  &	
  Closures	
  by	
  independent/mul=ple	
  
#LDCInsights	
  
Numberofunits
-2,000
0
2,000
4,000
8,000
10,000
6,000
-4,000
-6,000
-8,000
-10,000
Independents Multiples
Openings Closures
7,915
2,197
-8,059
-2,634
Source:	
  Local	
  Data	
  Company	
  
Retailing	
  in	
  Scotland’s	
  Largest	
  Towns	
  &	
  Ci6es	
  2015	
  
Sharing knowledge to
create a better place to be.LDC
GB	
  Openings	
  &	
  Closures	
  by	
  business	
  type	
  
#LDCInsights	
  
Multiples Independents
Netchangeinunitnumbers
-1,000
0
2,000
1,000
6,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
-2,000
-3000
2009
(H2)
2010
(H1)
2010
(H2)
2011
(H1)
2011
(H2)
2012
(H1)
2012
(H2)
2013
(H1)
2013
(H2)
2014
(H1)
2014
(H2)
2015
(H1)
Source:	
  Local	
  Data	
  Company	
  
Retailing	
  in	
  Scotland’s	
  Largest	
  Towns	
  &	
  Ci6es	
  2015	
  
Sharing knowledge to
create a better place to be.LDC
Convenience	
  stores	
  growth	
  since	
  2012	
  
#LDCInsights	
  
Numberofunits
20,500
21,000
21,500
22,500
22,000
20,000
19,500
19,000
2012 2013 2014 2015
Convenience stores
Source:	
  Local	
  Data	
  Company	
  
Retailing	
  in	
  Scotland’s	
  Largest	
  Towns	
  &	
  Ci6es	
  2015	
  
Sharing knowledge to
create a better place to be.LDC
The	
  essence	
  of	
  retail	
  is	
  
theatre.	
  
”	
  “	
   Tom	
  Peters	
  
#LDCInsights	
  
Retailing	
  in	
  Scotland’s	
  Largest	
  Towns	
  &	
  Ci6es	
  2015	
  
Sharing knowledge to
create a better place to be.LDC
Openings	
  &	
  Closures	
  by	
  region/na=on	
  
#LDCInsights	
  
West Midlands
Scotland
Yorks & The Humber
Wales
North West
South West
South East
North East
Greater London
East of England
East Midlands
Number of outlets
1,000 4,0003,000 6,000 7,0000 2,000 5,000
Openings Closures
Source:	
  Local	
  Data	
  Company	
  
Retailing	
  in	
  Scotland’s	
  Largest	
  Towns	
  &	
  Ci6es	
  2015	
  
Sharing knowledge to
create a better place to be.LDC
Churn	
  rates	
  across	
  GB	
  by	
  region/na=on	
  
#LDCInsights	
  
Scotland
West Midlands
Greater London
Wales
South East
North West
GB
South West
East Midlands
East of England
Yorks & The Humber
Churn rate (%)
2.0% 8.0%6.0% 12.0% 14.0%0.0%
11.7%
11.5%
10.5%
10.3%
9.9%
9.7%
9.4%
9.0%
8.9%
8.5%
8.2%
4.0% 10.0%
Source:	
  Local	
  Data	
  Company	
  
Retailing	
  in	
  Scotland’s	
  Largest	
  Towns	
  &	
  Ci6es	
  2015	
  
Sharing knowledge to
create a better place to be.LDC #LDCInsights	
  
Source	
  Wallpaper22.com	
  
Retailing	
  in	
  Scotland’s	
  Largest	
  Towns	
  &	
  Ci6es	
  2015	
  
Sharing knowledge to
create a better place to be.LDC
Foofall:	
  Are	
  outlets	
  achieving	
  their	
  poten6al?	
  
London	
  Retail	
  park:	
  lower	
  fooTall	
  higher	
  conversion	
  &	
  ATV,	
  weekend	
  peaks.	
  
Food	
  outlets	
  extend	
  dwell	
  =me	
  on	
  Sundays	
  –	
  impact	
  from	
  opening	
  hours	
  legisla=on?	
  
Central	
  London:	
  high	
  volumes,	
  several	
  peaks,	
  longer	
  evening	
  tail	
  =	
  opportuni=es	
  
•  Understand	
  peak	
  
shopping	
  =mes	
  
•  Should	
  opening	
  
hours	
  be	
  
extended?	
  
•  Benchmark	
  
loca6on	
  types	
  
•  Op=mise	
  staff	
  
accordingly	
  
•  Impact	
  of	
  
weather	
  and	
  
events	
  
Retailing	
  in	
  Scotland’s	
  Largest	
  Towns	
  &	
  Ci6es	
  2015	
  
Sharing knowledge to
create a better place to be.LDC
Foofall:	
  How	
  important	
  are	
  daily	
  varia6ons?	
  
•  ‘High	
  street’	
  fooTall	
  typically	
  increases	
  from	
  Monday	
  to	
  Saturday	
  
–  Market	
  Harborough,	
  Reading,	
  Basingstoke	
  all	
  have	
  peaks	
  on	
  Saturday	
  
–  London	
  profiles	
  vary	
  according	
  to	
  micro-­‐loca=on	
  factors.	
  	
  Impacts	
  store	
  opera=ons.	
  	
  	
  
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday
Average<External<Footfall<by<Town</<Day
Market<Harborough Reading Basingstoke London
Holborn	
  –	
  low	
  weekend	
  traffic.	
  Understand	
  value	
  of	
  local	
  
worker	
  popula=on	
  to	
  maximise	
  weekday	
  sales	
  
Retailing	
  in	
  Scotland’s	
  Largest	
  Towns	
  &	
  Ci6es	
  2015	
  
Sharing knowledge to
create a better place to be.LDC
LDC	
  /	
  MS	
  Health	
  Index	
  version	
  3.0	
  
#LDCInsight	
  
Retailing	
  in	
  Scotland’s	
  Largest	
  Towns	
  &	
  Ci6es	
  2015	
  
Sharing knowledge to
create a better place to be.LDC
Summary	
  
•  Vacancy	
  rates	
  are	
  improving	
  but	
  not	
  everywhere	
  
•  Wales	
  is	
  well	
  behind	
  England	
  and	
  Scotland	
  
•  The	
  ‘North’	
  con=nues	
  to	
  have	
  above	
  average	
  rates	
  
•  Worst	
  centres	
  at	
  >25%	
  and	
  best	
  at	
  <2%	
  
•  Shopping	
  centres	
  whilst	
  improving	
  have	
  highest	
  average	
  rate	
  
•  The	
  number	
  of	
  long	
  term	
  vacant	
  units	
  is	
  rising	
  (+24.4%)	
  
•  5	
  year	
  change	
  ranges	
  from	
  -­‐12.5%	
  to	
  +7.5%	
  with	
  57%	
  
improving	
  
Tweet using #LDCInsights
Retailing	
  in	
  Scotland’s	
  Largest	
  Towns	
  &	
  Ci6es	
  2015	
  
Sharing knowledge to
create a better place to be.LDC
Key	
  findings	
  on	
  openings	
  and	
  closures	
  
•  Independents	
  have	
  gone	
  nega=ve	
  for	
  first	
  =me	
  in	
  3	
  years	
  
•  Chains	
  con=nue	
  to	
  exit	
  high	
  street	
  in	
  favour	
  for	
  out	
  of	
  town	
  
•  Comparison	
  goods	
  decline	
  has	
  accelerated	
  
•  Leisure	
  bubble?	
  
•  Service	
  retail	
  polarisa=on	
  between	
  banks	
  and	
  ‘beauty/grooming’	
  
•  Greater	
  London	
  highly	
  compe==ve	
  and	
  thus	
  churning	
  
•  Mix	
  between	
  Independents	
  (65%)	
  and	
  chains	
  (35%)	
  has	
  changed	
  by	
  1%	
  
towards	
  chains	
  in	
  last	
  12	
  months	
  
•  Change	
  of	
  use	
  and	
  development	
  star=ng	
  to	
  happen	
  in	
  stock	
  profile	
  
#LDCInsights	
  
Retailing	
  in	
  Scotland’s	
  Largest	
  Towns	
  &	
  Ci6es	
  2015	
  
Sharing knowledge to
create a better place to be.LDC
I	
  can’t	
  change	
  the	
  
direc=on	
  of	
  the	
  wind,	
  but	
  I	
  
can	
  adjust	
  my	
  sails	
  to	
  
reach	
  my	
  des=na=on.	
  
”	
  
“	
  
Jimmy	
  Dean	
  
Tweet using #LDCInsights
Retailing	
  in	
  Scotland’s	
  Largest	
  Towns	
  &	
  Ci6es	
  2015	
  
Sharing knowledge to
create a better place to be.LDC
Sco;sh	
  Town	
  	
  
Centres	
  2015	
  
By	
  The	
  Local	
  Data	
  Company	
  
Presented	
  21st	
  October	
  2015	
  
#LDCInsight	
  
Keynote	
  presenta=ons	
  
Leigh	
  Sparks	
  
University	
  of	
  S=rling	
  
	
  
MaChew	
  Hopkinson	
  
Local	
  Data	
  Company	
  
#LDCInsight	
  
Chair	
  
Jane	
  Bradley	
  
The	
  Scotsman	
  
The	
  panel	
  
Phil	
  Pren6ce	
  
Scotland’s	
  Town	
  Partnership	
  
Margaret	
  McCulloch	
  
Member	
  Of	
  The	
  ScoGsh	
  Parliament	
  
Audrey	
  Michie	
  
Aberdeenshire	
  Council	
  
Retailing	
  in	
  Scotland’s	
  Largest	
  Towns	
  &	
  Ci6es	
  2015	
  
Sharing knowledge to
create a better place to be.LDC
Number	
  of	
  retail	
  premises	
  by	
  town	
  
#LDCInsight	
  
Retailing	
  in	
  Scotland’s	
  Largest	
  Towns	
  &	
  Ci6es	
  2015	
  
Sharing knowledge to
create a better place to be.LDC
Number	
  of	
  retail	
  premises	
  by	
  town	
  
#LDCInsight	
  
Retailing	
  in	
  Scotland’s	
  Largest	
  Towns	
  &	
  Ci6es	
  2015	
  
Sharing knowledge to
create a better place to be.LDC
Number	
  of	
  retail	
  premises	
  by	
  city	
  
#LDCInsight	
  
Retailing	
  in	
  Scotland’s	
  Largest	
  Towns	
  &	
  Ci6es	
  2015	
  
Sharing knowledge to
create a better place to be.LDC
Retail	
  vacancy	
  change	
  by	
  town	
  
#LDCInsight	
  
Retailing	
  in	
  Scotland’s	
  Largest	
  Towns	
  &	
  Ci6es	
  2015	
  
Sharing knowledge to
create a better place to be.LDC
Retail	
  vacancy	
  change	
  by	
  town	
  
#LDCInsight	
  
Retailing	
  in	
  Scotland’s	
  Largest	
  Towns	
  &	
  Ci6es	
  2015	
  
Sharing knowledge to
create a better place to be.LDC
Change	
  in	
  retail	
  mix	
  across	
  ScoGsh	
  towns	
  and	
  ci=es	
  
#LDCInsight	
  
Retailing	
  in	
  Scotland’s	
  Largest	
  Towns	
  &	
  Ci6es	
  2015	
  
Sharing knowledge to
create a better place to be.LDC
Number	
  of	
  vacant	
  retail	
  units	
  by	
  town	
  
#LDCInsight	
  
Retailing	
  in	
  Scotland’s	
  Largest	
  Towns	
  &	
  Ci6es	
  2015	
  
Sharing knowledge to
create a better place to be.LDC
Number	
  of	
  vacant	
  retail	
  units	
  by	
  town	
  
#LDCInsight	
  
Retailing	
  in	
  Scotland’s	
  Largest	
  Towns	
  &	
  Ci6es	
  2015	
  
Sharing knowledge to
create a better place to be.LDC
Number	
  of	
  vacant	
  retail	
  units	
  by	
  city	
  
#LDCInsight	
  
Retailing	
  in	
  Scotland’s	
  Largest	
  Towns	
  &	
  Ci6es	
  2015	
  
Sharing knowledge to
create a better place to be.LDC
Average	
  retail	
  vacant	
  units	
  by	
  town	
  
#LDCInsight	
  
Retailing	
  in	
  Scotland’s	
  Largest	
  Towns	
  &	
  Ci6es	
  2015	
  
Sharing knowledge to
create a better place to be.LDC
Vacancy	
  rates	
  across	
  ScoGsh	
  towns	
  and	
  ci=es	
  
#LDCInsight	
  
Retailing	
  in	
  Scotland’s	
  Largest	
  Towns	
  &	
  Ci6es	
  2015	
  
Sharing knowledge to
create a better place to be.LDC
Vacancy	
  rates	
  across	
  ScoGsh	
  towns	
  and	
  ci=es	
  
#LDCInsight	
  
Retailing	
  in	
  Scotland’s	
  Largest	
  Towns	
  &	
  Ci6es	
  2015	
  
Sharing knowledge to
create a better place to be.LDC
Vacancy	
  rates	
  across	
  ScoGsh	
  towns	
  and	
  ci=es	
  
#LDCInsight	
  
Retailing	
  in	
  Scotland’s	
  Largest	
  Towns	
  &	
  Ci6es	
  2015	
  
Sharing knowledge to
create a better place to be.LDC
Change	
  in	
  vacancy	
  rate	
  across	
  ScoGsh	
  towns	
  and	
  ci=es	
  
#LDCInsight	
  
Retailing	
  in	
  Scotland’s	
  Largest	
  Towns	
  &	
  Ci6es	
  2015	
  
Sharing knowledge to
create a better place to be.LDC
Convenience	
  stores	
  growth	
  since	
  2012	
  
#LDCInsight	
  
Retailing	
  in	
  Scotland’s	
  Largest	
  Towns	
  &	
  Ci6es	
  2015	
  
Sharing knowledge to
create a better place to be.LDC
Persistent	
  vacancy	
  across	
  ScoGsh	
  towns	
  and	
  ci=es	
  
#LDCInsight	
  
Retailing	
  in	
  Scotland’s	
  Largest	
  Towns	
  &	
  Ci6es	
  2015	
  
Sharing knowledge to
create a better place to be.LDC
Change	
  in	
  retail	
  mix	
  across	
  ScoGsh	
  towns	
  and	
  ci=es	
  
#LDCInsight	
  
Retailing	
  in	
  Scotland’s	
  Largest	
  Towns	
  &	
  Ci6es	
  2015	
  
Sharing knowledge to
create a better place to be.LDC
Change	
  in	
  retail	
  mix	
  across	
  ScoGsh	
  towns	
  and	
  ci=es	
  
#LDCInsight	
  
Retailing	
  in	
  Scotland’s	
  Largest	
  Towns	
  &	
  Ci6es	
  2015	
  
Sharing knowledge to
create a better place to be.LDC
Change	
  in	
  retail	
  mix	
  across	
  ScoGsh	
  towns	
  and	
  ci=es	
  
#LDCInsight	
  
Retailing	
  in	
  Scotland’s	
  Largest	
  Towns	
  &	
  Ci6es	
  2015	
  
Sharing knowledge to
create a better place to be.LDC
Retail	
  mix	
  across	
  ScoGsh	
  towns	
  and	
  ci=es	
  
#LDCInsight	
  
Retailing	
  in	
  Scotland’s	
  Largest	
  Towns	
  &	
  Ci6es	
  2015	
  
Sharing knowledge to
create a better place to be.LDC
Retail	
  mix	
  across	
  ScoGsh	
  towns	
  and	
  ci=es	
  
#LDCInsight	
  
Retailing	
  in	
  Scotland’s	
  Largest	
  Towns	
  &	
  Ci6es	
  2015	
  
Sharing knowledge to
create a better place to be.LDC
Retail	
  mix	
  across	
  ScoGsh	
  towns	
  and	
  ci=es	
  
#LDCInsight	
  
Retailing	
  in	
  Scotland’s	
  Largest	
  Towns	
  &	
  Ci6es	
  2015	
  
Sharing knowledge to
create a better place to be.LDC
Independent	
  retailers	
  across	
  ScoGsh	
  towns	
  and	
  ci=es	
  
#LDCInsight	
  
Retailing	
  in	
  Scotland’s	
  Largest	
  Towns	
  &	
  Ci6es	
  2015	
  
Sharing knowledge to
create a better place to be.LDC
Independent	
  retailers	
  across	
  ScoGsh	
  towns	
  and	
  ci=es	
  
#LDCInsight	
  
Retailing	
  in	
  Scotland’s	
  Largest	
  Towns	
  &	
  Ci6es	
  2015	
  
Sharing knowledge to
create a better place to be.LDC
Independent	
  retailers	
  across	
  ScoGsh	
  towns	
  and	
  ci=es	
  
#LDCInsight	
  
Retailing	
  in	
  Scotland’s	
  Largest	
  Towns	
  &	
  Ci6es	
  2015	
  
Sharing knowledge to
create a better place to be.LDC
Independent	
  retailers	
  across	
  ScoGsh	
  towns	
  and	
  ci=es	
  
#LDCInsight	
  
Retailing	
  in	
  Scotland’s	
  Largest	
  Towns	
  &	
  Ci6es	
  2015	
  
Sharing knowledge to
create a better place to be.LDC
Independent	
  retailers	
  across	
  ScoGsh	
  towns	
  and	
  ci=es	
  
#LDCInsight	
  
Retailing	
  in	
  Scotland’s	
  Largest	
  Towns	
  &	
  Ci6es	
  2015	
  
Sharing knowledge to
create a better place to be.LDC
Number	
  of	
  Charity	
  Shops	
  across	
  ScoGsh	
  towns	
  and	
  ci=es	
  
#LDCInsight	
  
Dingwall 6.8
Burntisland 0.0 Fort William 6.9
Gretna 0.0
Forres 7.5Livingston 0.3
Haddington 7.5Broxburn 1.1
Penicuik 9.3Auchterarder 1.6
Retailing	
  in	
  Scotland’s	
  Largest	
  Towns	
  &	
  Ci6es	
  2015	
  
Sharing knowledge to
create a better place to be.LDC
BMG	
  Score	
  by	
  town	
  
#LDCInsight	
  
Retailing	
  in	
  Scotland’s	
  Largest	
  Towns	
  &	
  Ci6es	
  2015	
  
Sharing knowledge to
create a better place to be.LDC
BMG	
  Score	
  by	
  town	
  
#LDCInsight	
  
Retailing	
  in	
  Scotland’s	
  Largest	
  Towns	
  &	
  Ci6es	
  2015	
  
Sharing knowledge to
create a better place to be.LDC
BMG	
  Score	
  by	
  town	
  
#LDCInsight	
  
Retailing	
  in	
  Scotland’s	
  Largest	
  Towns	
  &	
  Ci6es	
  2015	
  
Sharing knowledge to
create a better place to be.LDC
Booze,	
  Money	
  and	
  Gambling	
  2015	
  (as	
  %	
  of	
  total	
  stock)	
  
#LDCInsight	
  
Retailing	
  in	
  Scotland’s	
  Largest	
  Towns	
  &	
  Ci6es	
  2015	
  
Sharing knowledge to
create a better place to be.LDC
Booze,	
  Money	
  and	
  Gambling	
  2015	
  (as	
  %	
  of	
  total	
  stock)	
  
#LDCInsight	
  
Retailing	
  in	
  Scotland’s	
  Largest	
  Towns	
  &	
  Ci6es	
  2015	
  
Sharing knowledge to
create a better place to be.LDC
Booze,	
  Money	
  and	
  Gambling	
  2015	
  (as	
  %	
  of	
  total	
  stock)	
  
#LDCInsight	
  
Retailing	
  in	
  Scotland’s	
  Largest	
  Towns	
  &	
  Ci6es	
  2015	
  
Sharing knowledge to
create a better place to be.LDC
Quality	
  of	
  life	
  is	
  not	
  only	
  
about	
  what	
  you	
  find	
  in	
  
shops;	
  it’s	
  about	
  the	
  
landscape.	
  
”	
  
“	
  
Donald	
  Tusk,	
  President	
  of	
  the	
  European	
  Council	
  
#LDCInsight	
  
Retailing	
  in	
  Scotland’s	
  Largest	
  Towns	
  &	
  Ci6es	
  2015	
  
Sharing knowledge to
create a better place to be.LDC
Download	
  your	
  free	
  copy	
  of	
  the	
  22	
  page	
  report	
  here:	
  
www.localdatacompany.com/reports	
  

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Retail in Scotland 2015: Scottish Towns and Cities Presentation

  • 1. Retailing  in  Scotland’s  Largest  Towns  &  Ci6es  2015   Sharing knowledge to create a better place to be.LDC Sco;sh  Town     Centres  2015   By  The  Local  Data  Company   Presented  21st  October  2015   #LDCInsight   Keynote  presenta=ons   Leigh  Sparks   University  of  S=rling     MaChew  Hopkinson   Local  Data  Company   #LDCInsight   Chair   Jane  Bradley   The  Scotsman   The  panel   Phil  Pren6ce   Scotland’s  Town  Partnership   Margaret  McCulloch   Member  Of  The  ScoGsh  Parliament   Audrey  Michie   Aberdeenshire  Council  
  • 2. Retailing  in  Scotland’s  Largest  Towns  &  Ci6es  2015   Sharing knowledge to create a better place to be.LDC Today’s  agenda   Introduc6on  and  Research  methodology   Research  ques6ons  and  findings   Pu;ng  Scotland  in  context   Panel  discussion  and  Q&A   #LDCInsight  
  • 3. Retailing  in  Scotland’s  Largest  Towns  &  Ci6es  2015   Sharing knowledge to create a better place to be.LDC Quality  of  life  is  not  only   about  what  you  find  in   shops;  it’s  about  the   landscape.   ”   “   Donald  Tusk,  President  of  the  European  Council   #LDCInsight  
  • 4. Retailing  in  Scotland’s  Largest  Towns  &  Ci6es  2015   Sharing knowledge to create a better place to be.LDC What  do  we  do?   Gap  Analysis   Impar=al   Evidence     based  research   PorTolio  Analysis   Openings  &  Closures   Persistent  vacancy   Retail  Parks   Shopping  Centres   Health  Scores   Diversity  Indices   FooTall   Catchment  Profiles   Analy=cs   Na=onwide   Vacancy  rates   Insight   Knowledge   #LDCInsight  
  • 5. Retailing  in  Scotland’s  Largest  Towns  &  Ci6es  2015   Sharing knowledge to create a better place to be.LDC How  we  do  it?   Tweet using #LDCInsights 65,000   updates  a   month  
  • 6. Retailing  in  Scotland’s  Largest  Towns  &  Ci6es  2015   Sharing knowledge to create a better place to be.LDC Evidence  based  analysis   Ci6es  &  Towns   (50+  units)   850   Shopping  Centres   (10+  units)   675   Retail  Parks   (3+  units)   1,075   Tweet using #LDCInsights
  • 7. Retailing  in  Scotland’s  Largest  Towns  &  Ci6es  2015   Sharing knowledge to create a better place to be.LDC Scotland  Coverage   141   LOCATIONS  TRACKED   46,599   BUSINESSES  TRACKED   #LDCInsight   Retail  Parks   87   67   Shopping  centres  
  • 8. Retailing  in  Scotland’s  Largest  Towns  &  Ci6es  2015   Sharing knowledge to create a better place to be.LDC Retailing  in  Scotland’s  Largest   Towns  and  Ci6es  2015   Professor  Leigh  Sparks,   Ins6tute  for  Retail  Studies,   University  of  S6rling  
  • 9. Retailing  in  Scotland’s  Largest  Towns  &  Ci6es  2015   Sharing knowledge to create a better place to be.LDC Background   •  The  crisis  of  the  high  street   and  the  crisis  of  the  town   centre   •  From  Portas  to  Fraser   •  ScoGsh  Government’s   Town  Centre  Ac=on  Plan   •  Change  will  not  be  swia  
  • 10. Retailing  in  Scotland’s  Largest  Towns  &  Ci6es  2015   Sharing knowledge to create a better place to be.LDC Town  Centers   •  Retailing  is  important   •  Retailing  is  not  the  sole  driver  but  vital   nonetheless  
  • 11. Retailing  in  Scotland’s  Largest  Towns  &  Ci6es  2015   Sharing knowledge to create a better place to be.LDC Data   •  Local  Data  Company/University  of  S=rling   •  Third  ScoGsh  Summit   •  101  places  (towns  and  ci=es)   •  Using  given  boundaries  and  data  from  2012  
  • 12. Retailing  in  Scotland’s  Largest  Towns  &  Ci6es  2015   Sharing knowledge to create a better place to be.LDC Na6onal  Vacancy  Rates  2013-­‐15  
  • 13. Retailing  in  Scotland’s  Largest  Towns  &  Ci6es  2015   Sharing knowledge to create a better place to be.LDC Na=onal  vacancy   rates   H1  2013  –     H1  2015   Tweet using #LDCInsights England ScotlandWales Vacancyrate(%) 16.0 17.0 15.0 14.0 13.0 12.0 11.0 H1 2013 H2 2013 H1 2014 H1 2015H2 2014 10.0 Source: LDC
  • 14. Retailing  in  Scotland’s  Largest  Towns  &  Ci6es  2015   Sharing knowledge to create a better place to be.LDC Average  retail  vacancy  rates  by  town   #LDCInsight  
  • 15. Retailing  in  Scotland’s  Largest  Towns  &  Ci6es  2015   Sharing knowledge to create a better place to be.LDC Vacancy  rates  by  loca=on  type  2015   #LDCInsight  
  • 16. Retailing  in  Scotland’s  Largest  Towns  &  Ci6es  2015   Sharing knowledge to create a better place to be.LDC Vacancy  rates  by  loca=on  type  2014   #LDCInsight  
  • 17. Retailing  in  Scotland’s  Largest  Towns  &  Ci6es  2015   Sharing knowledge to create a better place to be.LDC Vacancy  rates  by  loca=on  type  2013   #LDCInsight  
  • 18. Retailing  in  Scotland’s  Largest  Towns  &  Ci6es  2015   Sharing knowledge to create a better place to be.LDC What  is  the  Retail  Scale  of  Sco;sh  Towns   and  Ci6es?   •  Glasgow  and  Edinburgh  dominate  the  retail  scene   •  There  is  a  complicated  mix  of  larger  towns  and  smaller  ci=es   and  considerable  scale  overlap   •  Only  27  towns  have  seen  the  number  of  retail  premises  since   2012   •  Ci=es  and  larger  towns  seem  to  be  on  a  different  trajectory  to   the  smaller  towns  in  our  subset,  where  retail  premise   numbers  have  edged  up  slightly  
  • 19. Retailing  in  Scotland’s  Largest  Towns  &  Ci6es  2015   Sharing knowledge to create a better place to be.LDC What  is  the  Vacancy  rate  and  How  is  it   Changing?   •  The  number  of  retail  premises  vacant  in  ci=es  has  reduced   notably  since  2012   •  The  vacancy  rates  in  towns  and  ci=es  has  fallen  since  2012   and  now  stands  at  an  average  of  13%  (cf  14%  in  2013)   •  The  varia=on  in  vacancy  rates  has  reduced  sugges=ng  that   towns  with  the  worst  situa=ons  have  begun  to  tackle  them   successfully  
  • 20. Retailing  in  Scotland’s  Largest  Towns  &  Ci6es  2015   Sharing knowledge to create a better place to be.LDC What  is  the  Vacancy  rate  and  How  is  it   Changing?  -­‐  2   •  Biggar  has  the  lowest  vacancy  rate  and  Banff  the  highest   •  Towns  have  very  different  trajectories  with  half  the  towns   seeing  falling  vacancy  rates  and  half  seeing  increasing  rates   •  Persistent  vacancy  is  highest  in  Banff  and  lowest  in  Alness  and   Inverurie   •  22  towns  and  1  city  (Dundee)  have  perisitent  vacancy  rates   above  10%  i.e.  1  in  10  premises  have  been  vacant  for  three   years  
  • 21. Retailing  in  Scotland’s  Largest  Towns  &  Ci6es  2015   Sharing knowledge to create a better place to be.LDC What  is  the  Retail  Structure  of  our  Towns   and  Ci6es?   •  Retailing  is  the  major  component  of  the  premises  in  the  towns  and   ci=es,  with  ci=es  being  more  leisure  oriented  than  most  towns   •  Gourock  is  the  most  independent  retail  town  and  Gretna  the  least   •  The  least  independent  towns  tend  to  be  dominated  by  planned  centres   •  There  is  no  discernible  pajern  in  terms  of  towns  becoming  more  or  less   independent  in  their  make  up  
  • 22. Retailing  in  Scotland’s  Largest  Towns  &  Ci6es  2015   Sharing knowledge to create a better place to be.LDC What  is  the  Retail  Structure  of  our   Towns  and  Ci6es?  -­‐2   •  Towns  and  ci=es  are  becoming  more  service  premise   focused   •  There  has  been  a  reduc=on  in  the  propor=on  of   comparison  retailing  units  in  many  towns,  perhaps   reflec=ng  the  impact  of  the  internet  
  • 23. Retailing  in  Scotland’s  Largest  Towns  &  Ci6es  2015   Sharing knowledge to create a better place to be.LDC What  is  the  Retail  Structure  of  our   Towns  and  Ci6es?  -­‐  3   •  Penicuik  has  the  highest  propor=on  of  charity  retailers  and  Burn=sland  the   lowest   •  Ardrossan  has  the  highest  BMG  Index  and  Callendar  the  lowest   •  55%  of  towns  saw  an  increase  in  the  charity  shop  propor=on  since  23012,   compared  to  40%  for  BMG   •  29  towns  saw  increases  in  both  charity  shop  and  BMG  Index  measures,   compared  to  34  towns  which  saw  decreases  in  both  
  • 24. Retailing  in  Scotland’s  Largest  Towns  &  Ci6es  2015   Sharing knowledge to create a better place to be.LDC Conclusions   •  Vacancy  rate  con=nues  to  fall   –  Economy   –  Restructuring   –  Adjustment   •  Towns  have  differing  trajectories   •  Dis=nc=veness  and  adjustment  are  being  driven  from  the   ground  up  
  • 25. Retailing  in  Scotland’s  Largest  Towns  &  Ci6es  2015   Sharing knowledge to create a better place to be.LDC Web:  www.s=rlingretail.com   Email:  Leigh.sparks@s=r.ac.uk   Telephone:  01786  467384   Twijer:  sparks_s=rling   Contact  Points  
  • 26. Retailing  in  Scotland’s  Largest  Towns  &  Ci6es  2015   Sharing knowledge to create a better place to be.LDC What  is  happening  GB  wide?    
  • 27. Retailing  in  Scotland’s  Largest  Towns  &  Ci6es  2015   Sharing knowledge to create a better place to be.LDC Retail  sales  –  2010-­‐2015   #LDCInsights  Source:  BDO  High  Street  Tracker   -­‐5   -­‐10   2010   2011   2012   2013   2014   2015   Overall   Lifestyle   Fashion   Homeware   15   10   5   0  
  • 28. Retailing  in  Scotland’s  Largest  Towns  &  Ci6es  2015   Sharing knowledge to create a better place to be.LDC UK  Consumer  Confidence  2010-­‐2015   #LDCInsights  Source:  HM  Treasury   10   5   0   -­‐5   -­‐10   -­‐15   -­‐20   -­‐25   -­‐30   -­‐35   2010   2011   2012   2013   2014   2015  
  • 29. Retailing  in  Scotland’s  Largest  Towns  &  Ci6es  2015   Sharing knowledge to create a better place to be.LDC
  • 30. Retailing  in  Scotland’s  Largest  Towns  &  Ci6es  2015   Sharing knowledge to create a better place to be.LDC Shopper  Behaviour   #LDCInsights   90% 80% 70% 60% 100% 50% 40% 18-24 35-4425-34 45-54 55+ 30% 20% 10% 0% 33.6 32.9 46.4 20.7 54.6 30.4 37.6 37.8 33.1 25.7 14.8 18.0 19.5 20.3 17.6 3.5 6.3 4.0 6.1 3.8 3.13.9 3.9 5.2 4.0 Shop mostly in store Research online - buy in store Shop mostly online Shop online - collect in store Other Research in store - buy online Source:  ONS  
  • 31. Retailing  in  Scotland’s  Largest  Towns  &  Ci6es  2015   Sharing knowledge to create a better place to be.LDC GB  Shop     vacancy  rates   2008  -­‐  2015   Tweet using #LDCInsights Source: LDC Shopvacancyrate(%) 16.0 14.0 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 2008-12 2009-06 2009-12 2010-06 2010-12 2011-06 2011-12 2012-06 2012-12 2013-06 2013-12 2014-06 2014-12 2015-06 0.0
  • 32. Retailing  in  Scotland’s  Largest  Towns  &  Ci6es  2015   Sharing knowledge to create a better place to be.LDC Shopping  centre   vacancy  rates   H1  2013  –     H1  2015   Tweet using #LDCInsights England ScotlandWales Vacancyrate(%) 19.0 20.0 18.0 17.0 14.0 16.0 13.0 15.0 12.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 11.0 H1 2013 H2 2013 H1 2014 H1 2015H2 2014 7.0 Source: LDC
  • 33. Retailing  in  Scotland’s  Largest  Towns  &  Ci6es  2015   Sharing knowledge to create a better place to be.LDC Vacancy  in     retail  parks   H1  2013  –     H1  2015   Tweet using #LDCInsights England ScotlandWales Vacancyrate(%) 12.0 13.0 11.0 10.0 9.0 8.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 H1 2013 H2 2013 H1 2014 H1 2015H2 2014 4.0 Source: LDC
  • 34. Retailing  in  Scotland’s  Largest  Towns  &  Ci6es  2015   Sharing knowledge to create a better place to be.LDC Persistent  vacancy   by  %  of  total  units   H1  2015   Tweet using #LDCInsights Source: LDC Less than 1 year 2-3 years 3+ years1-2 years 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Small High Street Large High Street Shopping Centre Retail Park Medium High Street 3.7% 4.3% 5.0% 5.6% 2.1% 1.6% 2.3% 2.2% 3.0% 1.4% 1.1% 1.4% 1.4% 2.1% 1.3% 2.9% 3.6% 3.9% 4.2% 1.9%
  • 35. Retailing  in  Scotland’s  Largest  Towns  &  Ci6es  2015   Sharing knowledge to create a better place to be.LDC GB  Openings  &  Closures  H1  2015   #LDCInsights   Numberofunits -5,000 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 -10,000 -15,000 10,112 -10,693 Openings Closures Source:  Local  Data  Company  
  • 36. Retailing  in  Scotland’s  Largest  Towns  &  Ci6es  2015   Sharing knowledge to create a better place to be.LDC GB  Openings  &  Closures  by  independent/mul=ple   #LDCInsights   Numberofunits -2,000 0 2,000 4,000 8,000 10,000 6,000 -4,000 -6,000 -8,000 -10,000 Independents Multiples Openings Closures 7,915 2,197 -8,059 -2,634 Source:  Local  Data  Company  
  • 37. Retailing  in  Scotland’s  Largest  Towns  &  Ci6es  2015   Sharing knowledge to create a better place to be.LDC GB  Openings  &  Closures  by  business  type   #LDCInsights   Multiples Independents Netchangeinunitnumbers -1,000 0 2,000 1,000 6,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 -2,000 -3000 2009 (H2) 2010 (H1) 2010 (H2) 2011 (H1) 2011 (H2) 2012 (H1) 2012 (H2) 2013 (H1) 2013 (H2) 2014 (H1) 2014 (H2) 2015 (H1) Source:  Local  Data  Company  
  • 38. Retailing  in  Scotland’s  Largest  Towns  &  Ci6es  2015   Sharing knowledge to create a better place to be.LDC Convenience  stores  growth  since  2012   #LDCInsights   Numberofunits 20,500 21,000 21,500 22,500 22,000 20,000 19,500 19,000 2012 2013 2014 2015 Convenience stores Source:  Local  Data  Company  
  • 39. Retailing  in  Scotland’s  Largest  Towns  &  Ci6es  2015   Sharing knowledge to create a better place to be.LDC The  essence  of  retail  is   theatre.   ”  “   Tom  Peters   #LDCInsights  
  • 40. Retailing  in  Scotland’s  Largest  Towns  &  Ci6es  2015   Sharing knowledge to create a better place to be.LDC Openings  &  Closures  by  region/na=on   #LDCInsights   West Midlands Scotland Yorks & The Humber Wales North West South West South East North East Greater London East of England East Midlands Number of outlets 1,000 4,0003,000 6,000 7,0000 2,000 5,000 Openings Closures Source:  Local  Data  Company  
  • 41. Retailing  in  Scotland’s  Largest  Towns  &  Ci6es  2015   Sharing knowledge to create a better place to be.LDC Churn  rates  across  GB  by  region/na=on   #LDCInsights   Scotland West Midlands Greater London Wales South East North West GB South West East Midlands East of England Yorks & The Humber Churn rate (%) 2.0% 8.0%6.0% 12.0% 14.0%0.0% 11.7% 11.5% 10.5% 10.3% 9.9% 9.7% 9.4% 9.0% 8.9% 8.5% 8.2% 4.0% 10.0% Source:  Local  Data  Company  
  • 42. Retailing  in  Scotland’s  Largest  Towns  &  Ci6es  2015   Sharing knowledge to create a better place to be.LDC #LDCInsights   Source  Wallpaper22.com  
  • 43. Retailing  in  Scotland’s  Largest  Towns  &  Ci6es  2015   Sharing knowledge to create a better place to be.LDC Foofall:  Are  outlets  achieving  their  poten6al?   London  Retail  park:  lower  fooTall  higher  conversion  &  ATV,  weekend  peaks.   Food  outlets  extend  dwell  =me  on  Sundays  –  impact  from  opening  hours  legisla=on?   Central  London:  high  volumes,  several  peaks,  longer  evening  tail  =  opportuni=es   •  Understand  peak   shopping  =mes   •  Should  opening   hours  be   extended?   •  Benchmark   loca6on  types   •  Op=mise  staff   accordingly   •  Impact  of   weather  and   events  
  • 44. Retailing  in  Scotland’s  Largest  Towns  &  Ci6es  2015   Sharing knowledge to create a better place to be.LDC Foofall:  How  important  are  daily  varia6ons?   •  ‘High  street’  fooTall  typically  increases  from  Monday  to  Saturday   –  Market  Harborough,  Reading,  Basingstoke  all  have  peaks  on  Saturday   –  London  profiles  vary  according  to  micro-­‐loca=on  factors.    Impacts  store  opera=ons.       0 100 200 300 400 500 600 Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday Average<External<Footfall<by<Town</<Day Market<Harborough Reading Basingstoke London Holborn  –  low  weekend  traffic.  Understand  value  of  local   worker  popula=on  to  maximise  weekday  sales  
  • 45. Retailing  in  Scotland’s  Largest  Towns  &  Ci6es  2015   Sharing knowledge to create a better place to be.LDC LDC  /  MS  Health  Index  version  3.0   #LDCInsight  
  • 46. Retailing  in  Scotland’s  Largest  Towns  &  Ci6es  2015   Sharing knowledge to create a better place to be.LDC Summary   •  Vacancy  rates  are  improving  but  not  everywhere   •  Wales  is  well  behind  England  and  Scotland   •  The  ‘North’  con=nues  to  have  above  average  rates   •  Worst  centres  at  >25%  and  best  at  <2%   •  Shopping  centres  whilst  improving  have  highest  average  rate   •  The  number  of  long  term  vacant  units  is  rising  (+24.4%)   •  5  year  change  ranges  from  -­‐12.5%  to  +7.5%  with  57%   improving   Tweet using #LDCInsights
  • 47. Retailing  in  Scotland’s  Largest  Towns  &  Ci6es  2015   Sharing knowledge to create a better place to be.LDC Key  findings  on  openings  and  closures   •  Independents  have  gone  nega=ve  for  first  =me  in  3  years   •  Chains  con=nue  to  exit  high  street  in  favour  for  out  of  town   •  Comparison  goods  decline  has  accelerated   •  Leisure  bubble?   •  Service  retail  polarisa=on  between  banks  and  ‘beauty/grooming’   •  Greater  London  highly  compe==ve  and  thus  churning   •  Mix  between  Independents  (65%)  and  chains  (35%)  has  changed  by  1%   towards  chains  in  last  12  months   •  Change  of  use  and  development  star=ng  to  happen  in  stock  profile   #LDCInsights  
  • 48. Retailing  in  Scotland’s  Largest  Towns  &  Ci6es  2015   Sharing knowledge to create a better place to be.LDC I  can’t  change  the   direc=on  of  the  wind,  but  I   can  adjust  my  sails  to   reach  my  des=na=on.   ”   “   Jimmy  Dean   Tweet using #LDCInsights
  • 49. Retailing  in  Scotland’s  Largest  Towns  &  Ci6es  2015   Sharing knowledge to create a better place to be.LDC Sco;sh  Town     Centres  2015   By  The  Local  Data  Company   Presented  21st  October  2015   #LDCInsight   Keynote  presenta=ons   Leigh  Sparks   University  of  S=rling     MaChew  Hopkinson   Local  Data  Company   #LDCInsight   Chair   Jane  Bradley   The  Scotsman   The  panel   Phil  Pren6ce   Scotland’s  Town  Partnership   Margaret  McCulloch   Member  Of  The  ScoGsh  Parliament   Audrey  Michie   Aberdeenshire  Council  
  • 50. Retailing  in  Scotland’s  Largest  Towns  &  Ci6es  2015   Sharing knowledge to create a better place to be.LDC Number  of  retail  premises  by  town   #LDCInsight  
  • 51. Retailing  in  Scotland’s  Largest  Towns  &  Ci6es  2015   Sharing knowledge to create a better place to be.LDC Number  of  retail  premises  by  town   #LDCInsight  
  • 52. Retailing  in  Scotland’s  Largest  Towns  &  Ci6es  2015   Sharing knowledge to create a better place to be.LDC Number  of  retail  premises  by  city   #LDCInsight  
  • 53. Retailing  in  Scotland’s  Largest  Towns  &  Ci6es  2015   Sharing knowledge to create a better place to be.LDC Retail  vacancy  change  by  town   #LDCInsight  
  • 54. Retailing  in  Scotland’s  Largest  Towns  &  Ci6es  2015   Sharing knowledge to create a better place to be.LDC Retail  vacancy  change  by  town   #LDCInsight  
  • 55. Retailing  in  Scotland’s  Largest  Towns  &  Ci6es  2015   Sharing knowledge to create a better place to be.LDC Change  in  retail  mix  across  ScoGsh  towns  and  ci=es   #LDCInsight  
  • 56. Retailing  in  Scotland’s  Largest  Towns  &  Ci6es  2015   Sharing knowledge to create a better place to be.LDC Number  of  vacant  retail  units  by  town   #LDCInsight  
  • 57. Retailing  in  Scotland’s  Largest  Towns  &  Ci6es  2015   Sharing knowledge to create a better place to be.LDC Number  of  vacant  retail  units  by  town   #LDCInsight  
  • 58. Retailing  in  Scotland’s  Largest  Towns  &  Ci6es  2015   Sharing knowledge to create a better place to be.LDC Number  of  vacant  retail  units  by  city   #LDCInsight  
  • 59. Retailing  in  Scotland’s  Largest  Towns  &  Ci6es  2015   Sharing knowledge to create a better place to be.LDC Average  retail  vacant  units  by  town   #LDCInsight  
  • 60. Retailing  in  Scotland’s  Largest  Towns  &  Ci6es  2015   Sharing knowledge to create a better place to be.LDC Vacancy  rates  across  ScoGsh  towns  and  ci=es   #LDCInsight  
  • 61. Retailing  in  Scotland’s  Largest  Towns  &  Ci6es  2015   Sharing knowledge to create a better place to be.LDC Vacancy  rates  across  ScoGsh  towns  and  ci=es   #LDCInsight  
  • 62. Retailing  in  Scotland’s  Largest  Towns  &  Ci6es  2015   Sharing knowledge to create a better place to be.LDC Vacancy  rates  across  ScoGsh  towns  and  ci=es   #LDCInsight  
  • 63. Retailing  in  Scotland’s  Largest  Towns  &  Ci6es  2015   Sharing knowledge to create a better place to be.LDC Change  in  vacancy  rate  across  ScoGsh  towns  and  ci=es   #LDCInsight  
  • 64. Retailing  in  Scotland’s  Largest  Towns  &  Ci6es  2015   Sharing knowledge to create a better place to be.LDC Convenience  stores  growth  since  2012   #LDCInsight  
  • 65. Retailing  in  Scotland’s  Largest  Towns  &  Ci6es  2015   Sharing knowledge to create a better place to be.LDC Persistent  vacancy  across  ScoGsh  towns  and  ci=es   #LDCInsight  
  • 66. Retailing  in  Scotland’s  Largest  Towns  &  Ci6es  2015   Sharing knowledge to create a better place to be.LDC Change  in  retail  mix  across  ScoGsh  towns  and  ci=es   #LDCInsight  
  • 67. Retailing  in  Scotland’s  Largest  Towns  &  Ci6es  2015   Sharing knowledge to create a better place to be.LDC Change  in  retail  mix  across  ScoGsh  towns  and  ci=es   #LDCInsight  
  • 68. Retailing  in  Scotland’s  Largest  Towns  &  Ci6es  2015   Sharing knowledge to create a better place to be.LDC Change  in  retail  mix  across  ScoGsh  towns  and  ci=es   #LDCInsight  
  • 69. Retailing  in  Scotland’s  Largest  Towns  &  Ci6es  2015   Sharing knowledge to create a better place to be.LDC Retail  mix  across  ScoGsh  towns  and  ci=es   #LDCInsight  
  • 70. Retailing  in  Scotland’s  Largest  Towns  &  Ci6es  2015   Sharing knowledge to create a better place to be.LDC Retail  mix  across  ScoGsh  towns  and  ci=es   #LDCInsight  
  • 71. Retailing  in  Scotland’s  Largest  Towns  &  Ci6es  2015   Sharing knowledge to create a better place to be.LDC Retail  mix  across  ScoGsh  towns  and  ci=es   #LDCInsight  
  • 72. Retailing  in  Scotland’s  Largest  Towns  &  Ci6es  2015   Sharing knowledge to create a better place to be.LDC Independent  retailers  across  ScoGsh  towns  and  ci=es   #LDCInsight  
  • 73. Retailing  in  Scotland’s  Largest  Towns  &  Ci6es  2015   Sharing knowledge to create a better place to be.LDC Independent  retailers  across  ScoGsh  towns  and  ci=es   #LDCInsight  
  • 74. Retailing  in  Scotland’s  Largest  Towns  &  Ci6es  2015   Sharing knowledge to create a better place to be.LDC Independent  retailers  across  ScoGsh  towns  and  ci=es   #LDCInsight  
  • 75. Retailing  in  Scotland’s  Largest  Towns  &  Ci6es  2015   Sharing knowledge to create a better place to be.LDC Independent  retailers  across  ScoGsh  towns  and  ci=es   #LDCInsight  
  • 76. Retailing  in  Scotland’s  Largest  Towns  &  Ci6es  2015   Sharing knowledge to create a better place to be.LDC Independent  retailers  across  ScoGsh  towns  and  ci=es   #LDCInsight  
  • 77. Retailing  in  Scotland’s  Largest  Towns  &  Ci6es  2015   Sharing knowledge to create a better place to be.LDC Number  of  Charity  Shops  across  ScoGsh  towns  and  ci=es   #LDCInsight   Dingwall 6.8 Burntisland 0.0 Fort William 6.9 Gretna 0.0 Forres 7.5Livingston 0.3 Haddington 7.5Broxburn 1.1 Penicuik 9.3Auchterarder 1.6
  • 78. Retailing  in  Scotland’s  Largest  Towns  &  Ci6es  2015   Sharing knowledge to create a better place to be.LDC BMG  Score  by  town   #LDCInsight  
  • 79. Retailing  in  Scotland’s  Largest  Towns  &  Ci6es  2015   Sharing knowledge to create a better place to be.LDC BMG  Score  by  town   #LDCInsight  
  • 80. Retailing  in  Scotland’s  Largest  Towns  &  Ci6es  2015   Sharing knowledge to create a better place to be.LDC BMG  Score  by  town   #LDCInsight  
  • 81. Retailing  in  Scotland’s  Largest  Towns  &  Ci6es  2015   Sharing knowledge to create a better place to be.LDC Booze,  Money  and  Gambling  2015  (as  %  of  total  stock)   #LDCInsight  
  • 82. Retailing  in  Scotland’s  Largest  Towns  &  Ci6es  2015   Sharing knowledge to create a better place to be.LDC Booze,  Money  and  Gambling  2015  (as  %  of  total  stock)   #LDCInsight  
  • 83. Retailing  in  Scotland’s  Largest  Towns  &  Ci6es  2015   Sharing knowledge to create a better place to be.LDC Booze,  Money  and  Gambling  2015  (as  %  of  total  stock)   #LDCInsight  
  • 84. Retailing  in  Scotland’s  Largest  Towns  &  Ci6es  2015   Sharing knowledge to create a better place to be.LDC Quality  of  life  is  not  only   about  what  you  find  in   shops;  it’s  about  the   landscape.   ”   “   Donald  Tusk,  President  of  the  European  Council   #LDCInsight  
  • 85. Retailing  in  Scotland’s  Largest  Towns  &  Ci6es  2015   Sharing knowledge to create a better place to be.LDC Download  your  free  copy  of  the  22  page  report  here:   www.localdatacompany.com/reports