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As risks unfold in cascading events –
an EMV perspective
Lew Short
General Manager Risk, Consequence & Resilience
“The world has entered the era of ‘mega
crisis’ or catastrophic emergencies’ whose
force and magnitude defy even the best
laid plans and the most robust response
systems”
Professor Paul ‘t Hart
As risks unfold in cascading events
Resilience is the capacity of individuals,
communities, institutions, businesses and
systems to survive, adapt, and grow no
matter what kinds of chronic stresses and
acute shocks they experience
Source: 100 RC
As risks unfold in cascading events
What is the EM Sectors Role in Achieving the
Resilience Outcomes?
Safer and More Resilient
Communities
As risks unfold in cascading events
Aims to:
Improve community outcomes by:
•understanding and analysis of the situation
•driving collaboration
•understanding consequences by scenario planning
•understanding interdependencies
•act or mitigate based on actual or potential consequences
Outcomes:
•Informs decision makers on consequences and options
•Reduce uncertainty complexity via scenario planning
•Joined up approach to mitigate consequences
•Plan for anticipated events and identifies gaps
•Understand State capability to mitigate and manage
Consequences Management
Murray River -Blue Green Algae
Goulburn Murray Water identified
high levels of potentially toxic BGA on
18 February 2016
Current situation:
•981km Murray River affected
•Around 41 townships with a population
base of 120,538
Consequence Management
1. Flows of 1000 mega litres a day
are regulated through the
Kerang Wetlands with the bulk
of the water moving through
the Loddon River and
associated creek/ floodplain
resulting in the inundation of
approximately 30 farms and
associated agricultural land
with underfloor flooding of
approximately two houses.
 
1. Flows of 3000 mega litres a day
are regulated through the
Kerang Wetlands with spill water
through the Loddon River
resulting in the death of 20,000 –
40,000 Ibis chicks in the
wetlands and flooding of
approximately 30 farms and
associated agricultural land
with underfloor flooding of
approximately two houses.
As risks unfold in cascading events
Limitofdirectattack
Uncontrollable
Limittosafeoperationof
helicopters(~50km/h)
Lossofradio&telcotowers
Lossofsituational
awareness
Limitof
AS3959
• Our focus has been on hazard and risk not
necessarily consequences and cascading
consequences.
• What is a reasonable tolerance of risk?
• Post event, our first response is to build it back.
• The question needs to be asked “should we
build it back and what does the new normal
look like?”
Planning and building challenges
EM Resilience ChallengesEM Resilience Challenges
• More frequent & intense natural disasters. Longer & deeper droughts, more frequent
& intense bushfires, extreme heat, more costly storms & floods, sea level rise…
• There will be more of us (Vic 6m to 10m 2021) & aged population
• Catastrophic events will overwhelm emergency services
• Natural disasters will cost us a lot (around $12 billion by 2030)
• Insurers will be price signalling to reflect risk & exposure;
• Integrated landuse planning and building
• Tension in the planning system
• The precautionary principle
• Expectations of the community… will be for no loss of life or assets;
• We will be network centric (fragility of systems, dependency of community);
• More warnings and evacuations = > losses of assets
• Violent extremism
• Health and epidemic
@lewshort14
http://www.slideshare.net/LewShort
ThanksThanks

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As risks unfold in cascading events

  • 1. As risks unfold in cascading events – an EMV perspective Lew Short General Manager Risk, Consequence & Resilience
  • 2. “The world has entered the era of ‘mega crisis’ or catastrophic emergencies’ whose force and magnitude defy even the best laid plans and the most robust response systems” Professor Paul ‘t Hart
  • 4. Resilience is the capacity of individuals, communities, institutions, businesses and systems to survive, adapt, and grow no matter what kinds of chronic stresses and acute shocks they experience Source: 100 RC
  • 6. What is the EM Sectors Role in Achieving the Resilience Outcomes? Safer and More Resilient Communities
  • 8. Aims to: Improve community outcomes by: •understanding and analysis of the situation •driving collaboration •understanding consequences by scenario planning •understanding interdependencies •act or mitigate based on actual or potential consequences Outcomes: •Informs decision makers on consequences and options •Reduce uncertainty complexity via scenario planning •Joined up approach to mitigate consequences •Plan for anticipated events and identifies gaps •Understand State capability to mitigate and manage Consequences Management
  • 9. Murray River -Blue Green Algae Goulburn Murray Water identified high levels of potentially toxic BGA on 18 February 2016 Current situation: •981km Murray River affected •Around 41 townships with a population base of 120,538
  • 11. 1. Flows of 1000 mega litres a day are regulated through the Kerang Wetlands with the bulk of the water moving through the Loddon River and associated creek/ floodplain resulting in the inundation of approximately 30 farms and associated agricultural land with underfloor flooding of approximately two houses.   1. Flows of 3000 mega litres a day are regulated through the Kerang Wetlands with spill water through the Loddon River resulting in the death of 20,000 – 40,000 Ibis chicks in the wetlands and flooding of approximately 30 farms and associated agricultural land with underfloor flooding of approximately two houses.
  • 14. • Our focus has been on hazard and risk not necessarily consequences and cascading consequences. • What is a reasonable tolerance of risk? • Post event, our first response is to build it back. • The question needs to be asked “should we build it back and what does the new normal look like?” Planning and building challenges
  • 15. EM Resilience ChallengesEM Resilience Challenges • More frequent & intense natural disasters. Longer & deeper droughts, more frequent & intense bushfires, extreme heat, more costly storms & floods, sea level rise… • There will be more of us (Vic 6m to 10m 2021) & aged population • Catastrophic events will overwhelm emergency services • Natural disasters will cost us a lot (around $12 billion by 2030) • Insurers will be price signalling to reflect risk & exposure; • Integrated landuse planning and building • Tension in the planning system • The precautionary principle • Expectations of the community… will be for no loss of life or assets; • We will be network centric (fragility of systems, dependency of community); • More warnings and evacuations = > losses of assets • Violent extremism • Health and epidemic