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Price Risk like a Banker
How financial risk management achieves impact
Leonard Hugenholtz
IDA Risk Conference, December 2017
Assertion
Risk management
affects
decision-making
Assertion
Financial Risk
has more impact on decision making than
Operational Risk
WHY?
Perspective
Leonard
Hugenholtz
Financial Risk Manager
 NIBC
– Asset Liability Management 
– Risk Modelling 
– Business Management
– Operational Risk 
 ABN AMRO
– Interest Rate Risk  
– Risk Regulation 
 Brand New Day
– Financial Risk Manager 
OpsFin
Regulatory Gap Closure (ABN AMRO)
Investment Decisions (Brand New Day)
Project Risk Management (ABN AMRO)
Three Stories
1. Introduction
2. Mortgages
3. Comparison
4. Improvements
5. Conclusion
Agenda

2. MortgagesImage: FreeImages.com/Christer Rønning Austad
Banks are funded with:
• Funding (liabilities)
• Capital (equity)
Bank use deposits to make loans:
• Short dated funding versus long dated assets
• Positive interest rate margin
Banking
Banks group loans in portfolios.
Example
• € 1 billion mortgage portfolio
• 5000 loans
• Average loan: € 200.000,-
Mortgages: Credit Risk
Mortgages: Credit Risk
Mortgage
Portfolio
Performing
Loans
Defaults
Probability of Default (PD)
Pricing example
Mortgages (receive): 2.50%
Funding (pay): 1.00%
Default Rate: 1%
Loss Given Default: 25%
Mortgages: Credit Risk
1.50% Gross Margin
0.25% Expected Loss
1.25% Net Margin
Question
Why do we need risk management?
Pricing example; bad year
Mortgages (receive): 2.50%
Funding (pay): 1.00%
Default Rate: 5%
Loss Given Default: 50%
Mortgages: Credit Risk
1.50% Gross Margin
2.50% Realised Loss
-1.00% Net Margin
-1.00% on € 1 billion is a € 10 million loss.
This loss will be deducted from capital (equity)
Gross return on this capital is € 12.5 mln / year
Mortgages: Credit Risk
Mortgages: Operational Risk
PaymentClosureOffer
Client
Intake
Credit
Assessment
Mortgage process
Process risks
Fraud Offer not sent Payment late
Over-crediting IT systems failure
Mortgages: Operational Risk
“Fraud”
Impact
“Miscommunication”
Likelihood
Like credit risk, operational risk is mandatory
Cover large events with capital (equity)
Events have a value threshold
Mortgages: Operational Risk
3. ComparisonImage: FreeImages.com/Jeremy Wing
Risks are downside only
Probability of Default ≈ Risk Likelihood
Loss Given Default ≈ Risk Impact
Smaller events are fine, larger events are crippling
Comparison: Similarities
Comparison: Differences
Financial Risk
 Taken willingly
 Internal to the product
 Transparently priced
 Events are worse BAU
Operational Risk
 Minimized
 External to the process
 Pricing unclear
 Events differ from BAU
4. ImprovementsImage: FreeImages.com/Kenneth Pedersen
Key differences
 Risk appetite
Credit risk is taken willingly
 Risk budgeting
Credit risk events connect to daily P&L
 Risk pricing
Credit risk is priced into the product
Risk Appetite
Happy flows require no management
The organisation has the risk
The department/project manages it
Risk Budgeting
“Squeaky wheel gets the grease”
Translate losses and controls into P&L
Make informed trade-offs
Risk Pricing
Risk management costs money
Roll these costs into your product
Explicitly transfer risk – at a good price
5. ConclusionImage: FreeImages.com/Luis Fernando Lima Marinho
Conclusion
Risk appetite
Risk budgeting
Risk pricing
Thank You
Please ask questions!

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Price Risk like a Banker