Integrating Probable Fieldwork Days into Nutrient Management Plans
http://www.extension.org/67619 Weather conditions impact land application of manure. Wet soils hinder equipment from accessing fields. Regulations prohibit application on frozen or snow cover soils. Uncertain soil and atmospheric conditions can cause the best plans to fail. Nutrient management plans that are expected to succeed might fail given any particular year’s weather. Incorporating fieldwork days information into nutrient management plans can make them more robust to uncertain weather conditions. The USDA publishes the number of fieldwork days for different crop reporting districts within states. These data are from field reporters who provide their opinion on the number of days that were available for farmers to conduct fieldwork such as disking, planting and harvesting. USDA Fieldwork Days data cover the growing season (approximately April to December). Estimates of fieldwork days do not exist for the non-growing season (approximately December to April). However, certain states have agricultural weather station networks that collect soil temperature and other critical information that can be used to estimate the number of fieldwork days that exist for manure application within regulatory limits. This project integrates fieldwork days from the USDA Fieldwork Days data with the Missouri Agricultural Weather Station Network winter soil temperature and precipitation data for the corresponding crop reporting district. This compiled database gives a complete year of fieldwork day estimates. The data are used in a model that allows nutrient management planners to incorporate climatological impacts into their land application plans. Users specify their equipment complement and size, quantity of manure, and desired beginning and ending dates. The model reports output in a cumulative distribution function that estimates the probability of completing fieldwork within the specified parameters and a sensitivity table of ending dates.
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Integrating Probable Fieldwork Days into Nutrient Management Plans
- 1. John Lory, Ray Massey and Pat Guinan University of Missouri
- 2. Are we doing our job?
- 3. April through November USDA data – ▪ Reporters’ opinion of soil conditions allowing equipment into the field ▪ Reported as “days per week” ▪ Over 30 years of data ▪ http://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/Missouri/ Publications/Crop_Progress_and_Condition/ Probability tool originally developed for Missouri. Work to expand to IA, IL, and KS.
- 16. Equipment Inputs to EstimateApplication Time Capacity of spreader/tanker Application width Application travel speed Applicator discharge rate Travel time Infield travel time Road travel time Applicator load time
- 20. Equipment Inputs to EstimateApplication Time Capacity of spreader/tanker Application width Application travel speed Applicator discharge rate Travel time Infield travel time Road travel time Applicator load time
- 21. 4,800 Grow-Finish Operation Generates enough manure to provide N for 400 acres of corn. Application rate 175 lbs N/A (4,375 gal/A) Fields average 1 mile from barn LandApplication Equipment 6000 gallon tanker 15-foot swath injector Travel speeds: ▪ Road: 10 mph ▪ In field, not applying: 7 mph ▪ In field, applying: 3.4 mph (requires 450 gal/min discharge rate) ▪ Loading time: 10 minutes/load Application time estimate: 200 hours Application efficiency estimate: 0.36
- 22. Scenario 1 Northwest Missouri Apply in April Run tanker up to 12 hours per day, 6 days per week Need 200 hours Analysis Mean: 130 hours fieldwork in April 12 % probability of success 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 ProbablityofCompletion Hours Available
- 23. 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 ProbablityofCompletion Hours Available Solution 1 (need 200 hrs): Expand application to May (ApplyApril to June 2 (2 months)) Mean: 305 hours fieldwork in April-May 87% probability of success April-May
- 24. 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 ProbablityofCompletion Hours Available Solution 2: Increase tank size to 7200 gal. Get a nurse tank (road time goes to zero) Need 130 hours Mean: 130 hours fieldwork in April 53% probability of success April
- 25. 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 ProbablityofCompletion Hours Available Solution 3: Increase tank size to 7200 gal. Get a nurse tank (road time goes to zero) ApplyApril to June 2 (2 months) Need 130 hours Mean: 305 hours fieldwork inApril plus May April 1 – June 2 96% chance of success April - May
- 26. 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 ProbablityofCompletion Hours Available Solution 4: Increase tank size to 7200 gal. Get a nurse tank (road time goes to zero) Move 33% of application to fall Need 130 hours. 86 hours April 71 % chance of success 44 hours from Nov. 18 -30 80% chance of success in Nov. April 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 0 20 40 60 80 100 ProbablityofCompletion Hours Available Nov. 18-30
- 27. 165 170 175 180 185 190 195 200 205 Field Distance (-) Swath Width (+) Tanker size (+) Road Travel Speed (+) FieldTravel Speed (+) Hourstocover400acres Base 20% change Field distance: 1.0 to 0.8 miles Tanker size: 6000 to 7200 gal. Field travel speed: 7.0 to 8.4 mph Swath width: 15 to 18 feet Road travel speed: 10 to 12 mph
- 28. Expand to other states Integrate into nutrient management reporting software Quantitative approach for April - November
- 29. Not covered by the Fieldwork database Factors to consider Soil temperature below 32oF (frozen soils) Snow cover Precipitation Saturated soils
- 31. 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 30 50 70 90 110 Lamar Novelty South Farm Probabilityofsuccess Days wanted
- 32. Critical to integrate the concept of risk into nutrient management decisions. http://swine.missouri.edu/swine/PDFM.xls