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CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY
Any use of this material without specific permission of McKinsey & Company
is strictly prohibited
HSS WEBINAR SERIES
April 2, 2020 | 11amET
COVID-19 Crisis:
US Healthcare
Preparedness –
Provider Workforce
McKinsey & Company 2
We are excited to be here with you today
Gretchen Berlin, RN
Partner,
Healthcare Systems & Services
Co-leader of Provider
Performance Improvement
Meredith Lapointe
Partner,
Healthcare Systems & Services
Co-leader of Provider
Performance Improvement
Li Han
Expert Associate Partner,
Healthcare Systems & Services
Co-leader of Provider Workforce
Excellence
Bryan Hancock
Partner
Global Leader, Talent service line
Dr. Pooja Kumar
Partner,
Healthcare Systems & Services
Leader of the Healthcare
COVID-19 response team
Erica Coe
Partner,
Co-leader of Center for Societal
Benefit through Healthcare
Co-leader of Center for US
Health System Reform
Kana Enamoto
Senior Expert
Leader in mental-health and
substance-use policy, data,
programs, and practice
improvement
Mhoire Murphy
Partner,
Healthcare Systems & Services
Co-leader of Provider Workforce
Excellence
McKinsey & Company 3
Solving the COVID-19 humanitarian challenge is the top priority. Much remains to be done globally to prepare,
respond, and recover, from protecting populations at risk, to supporting affected patients/ families/ communities, to
developing a vaccine. To address this crisis, countries including the US will need to respond in an evidence-
informed manner, leveraging public health infrastructure and proactive leadership.
This document is meant to help with a narrower goal: provide a summarized fact base on the disease to
date, insights on potential scenarios for the US healthcare workforce, and potential actions stakeholders
may consider as it could relate to needs posed by COVID-19.
In addition, we have developed a broader perspective on implications for businesses across sectors that
can be found here: https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/risk/our-insights/COVID-19-implications-for-
business. This supplemental material discusses implications for the wider economy, businesses, and employment;
and sets out some of those challenges and how organizations can respond in order to protect their people and
navigate through an uncertain situation.
For all formal guidance, you can find up-to-date information at CDC’s COVID-19 website, with a section
specific to healthcare professionals or healthcare organizations: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-
ncov/healthcare-facilities/index.html
McKinsey & Company 4
Disclaimer
This document has been prepared to provide general insights and best practices on healthcare workforce planning in
light of potential scenarios around workforce supply and demand during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Many of the approaches discussed in this document would only be considered in truly emergency capacity situations,
keeping patient and caregiver safety paramount.
This document is not intended to provide clinical guidance or medical advice/recommendations, which should
remain firmly guided by and subject to hospital, local and/or national guidelines and approvals.
Any use of this material without the specific permission of McKinsey is strictly prohibited. McKinsey does not provide
legal, medical or other regulated advice or guarantee results. The perspectives contained herein assume action
consistent with, and in no way are meant to imply that steps be taken contrary to, any applicable laws. Any actions
impacting the treatment of patients and/or clinical decisioning should be vetted by the appropriate quality committees
within your organization. These materials reflect general insight and best practice based on information currently
available and do not contain all of the information needed to determine a future course of action. Such information has not
been generated or independently verified by McKinsey and is inherently uncertain and subject to change. McKinsey has
no obligation to update these materials and makes no representation or warranty and expressly disclaims any liability with
respect thereto.
McKinsey & Company 5
People are at the core of managing this crisis - with the clinicians
and broader patient care support teams playing indispensable roles
Healthcare stakeholders are going to need to think differently about how to solve the
workforce challenge posed by COVID-19
COVID-19 patient
care ecosystem
Lab, imaging, pharmacy specialists
Clinical specialists (e.g., respiratory
therapist, mental health professionals,
case managers)
EVS and care support
Physicians
Nurses
PCTs / CNAs
First responders
Advanced Practice ProvidersAdministrators
McKinsey & Company 6
Table of contents:
Provider workforce
Dynamics at play for healthcare workforce
Creating and supporting incremental capacity
Longer term implications and considerations
McKinsey & Company 7
Healthcare workforce is complex and different categories
of employees will have different needs during this time
The impact of disruption and potential strategies to mitigate will differ by category
Category Description Key considerations
Category 1:
COVID Caregivers
Workers who are fulfilling the need for current health
system demand related to COVID-19
(e.g., hospitalists, critical care physicians, ICU RNs,
security at the hospital, lab technicians, care
managers)
Demand is high: Creating additional capacity is critical, through flexing up, contract labor, activating
cross-trained personnel
Supply is strained: Large increase in strain on workforce with childcare, quarantine and other factors
Ensure there are strategies in place to avoid burnout
Category 2: Other
Caregivers
Workers who are caring for patients / other populations
not related to COVID-19
(e.g., speech language pathology techs, orthopedic
surgeons, clinic receptionists)
Many patients will still require life-saving and critical maintenance care, requiring healthcare workers
to continue working but potentially in creative ways (e.g., more telehealth, sanitization efforts in
care sites, home care support)
Physician and others’ productivity will be impacted which may raise questions and concerns around
areas such as compensation
Some caregivers’ skills may be useful in COVID-19 support and all hands on deck approach may be
needed with some flexing / re-skilling
Category 3:
Workers with
likely reduced
demand
Workers who are potentially under-employed or
unable to work their usual jobs because of COVID-
19
(e.g., researchers in closed labs, food workers at
closed site, home health workers)
High anxiety over job security, ability to make living wages (especially among hourly employees);
clear messaging will be needed to manage panic and show support
Need to be creative in thinking through how to mobilize some of these employees in a productive
way (e.g., supporting community programs, trainings etc.)
Considerations around flexing down of staff and/or use of furloughs where necessary
Category 4:
Workers who
must work
differently
Workers who are less impacted by COVID-19 directly
(i.e. can do same work done from home)
(e.g., administrators, coders etc.)
Tools to complete work and new ways to stay connected will be needed; likely reduction in
productivity can be expected in several areas
Considerations around how to flex staff and ensure some of “business as usual” continues so
support functions can continue to operate
Current as of April 1, 2020
These perspectives are intended to build from CDC and other guidance based on operations and management experience. Please continue to consult CDC, state health department, and medical societies for the most up-to-date
guidance. These perspectives are not intended as a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. Any actions impacting clinical decisioning should be vetted by the appropriate quality committees within your organization.
McKinsey & Company 8
Preparedness to address a set of unique challenges
in workforce readiness is critical during the COVID-19 crisis
Across a spectrum of healthcare workers
Workforce
focus
Category 1 Category 2, Category 3 All Categories
Workforce morale / “burnout”Workforce readiness / flexingWorkforce shortages
Challenges Work-related: over work and fatigue (e.g., staying
in-hospital for extended periods); anxiety from
infection risk for self and others; resource
constraints / difficult work environment (e.g., re-
using of PPE); patient losses and “war-like”
decision-making needs (e.g., which patients to triage
for limited ICUs)
Systemic: Increase in other duties (child care, sick
care etc.); lack of community support (e.g., in
prevention of infection, reducing burdens etc.); loss
of productivity from change in structure (e.g., WFH)
Guidance and communication: rapidly evolving
evidence-base for COVID-19 with new information
daily; non-centralized, disparate communication on
roles
Flexing and re-skilling: shift restrictions (hourly
and weekly restrictions); licensure ceilings (e.g.,
who can work in ICUs); time and resources for re-
skilling (needed to train in ventilator mgt.); lack of
readiness for using tech in pandemic situations
(e.g., e-ICUs, management of moderate symptoms
by phone etc.)
Increasing capacity: unsuitability of traditional
methods such as travelers (e.g., travel restriction,
global demand); difficulty in rapidly engaging non-
traditional sources (medical students, IMGs, retired
HCPs) due to regulatory, legal, patient safety issues
Reducing losses: expected COVID-19 infection of
HCPs; burnout / fatigue of frontline workers; non-
clinical imperatives for workers (childcare, elderly
care etc.)
Solutions Support for HCPs in-house (e.g., food, childcare,
online resources on working in this environment etc.)
Community support for HCPs – for childcare,
grocery pick-up, etc.
Proactive mental health support for HCPs
Centralized information from nerve center
Re-structuring shifts to improve efficiency
Identifying and flexing providers who can move to
category 1 (e.g., double boarded physicians, nurses
with ICU experience etc.)
Creating rapid re-skilling materials (e.g., e-learning
for vent mgt.)
Optimizing virtual health
Identify senior medical and surgical residents who
can be transitioned to independent practice
Policy changes to increase pool of providers (e.g.,
rapid license issuing)
Prioritizing of infection control (e.g., PPEs, public
education etc.)
Working with FEMA / support organization for
systemic response
Structure support systems for childcare, eldercare
etc.
Non-exhaustive
Current as of April 1, 2020
These perspectives are intended to build from CDC and other guidance based on operations and management experience. Please continue to consult CDC, state health department, and medical societies for the most up-to-date
guidance. These perspectives are not intended as a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. Any actions impacting clinical decisioning should be vetted by the appropriate quality committees within your organization.
McKinsey & Company 9
Stakeholders are already coming together to deploy a
number of tactics
Current as of April 1, 2020
Source: Wall Street Journal, CNN, The New York Times, Time.com, Fiercehealthcare.com, Uber.com, AP News, expert interviews March 2020
Protect health and safety of
employees
Initiating safety precautions – e.g.,
PPE rationing and PPE usage
protocols in event of shortage
Designing segregated areas for
COVID-19 cohorts to prevent
contamination to other departments
Seeking PPE donation from other
healthcare specialists and the public
Restricting visitors at hospitals
Shifting more to telemedicine
where possible
Crowdsource workplace issues and
best practices for fighting COVID-19
among healthcare workers
Create additional workforce
capacity
Hiring temporary nurses and
medical workers
Asking employees to volunteer
more shifts
Building volunteer lists and staff
databases that can fill workforce
gaps at hospitals (retirees, those in
different professions)
Enlisting medical school students
for nonpatient-facing duties (e.g., call
center triage, pharmacy support,
blood donation support) with
supervision
Provide solutions beyond the
scope of traditional
employee support
Identifying and offering child
care services for healthcare
workers (through own resources
or partnerships with
cities/municipalities) in
compliance with standard group
size limits
Providing housing
accommodations for employees
during quarantine or who want to
ensure a separate living place to
avoid potentially exposing family
members to COVID-19
Keep morale up and prevent
burnout
Increasing system-wide
communication/engagement (e.g.,
townhalls, question hot lines, etc.)
Showing public recognition and
support for healthcare workers from
broader society (e.g., recognition
posts on social media, healthcare
worker applause campaigns)
Increasing access to behavioral
health resources (e.g., Ginger
offering U.S. health systems free
behavioral health coaching through
June 2020)
Providing meals (e.g., UberEats,
Sweetgreen offering free meals to
healthcare workers and first
responders)1
Not Exhaustive
Examples of recent initiatives and efforts to support healthcare workforce
1 On 3/16, Uber Eats committed to 300,000 free meals in US and Canada; As of 4/1, Sweetgreen has delivered 10,000 meals to hospitals across the country and is
partnering with World Central Kitchen with a goal of serving over 100,000 meals.
McKinsey & Company 10
Table of contents:
Provider workforce
Dynamics at play for healthcare workforce
Creating and supporting incremental capacity
Longer term implications and considerations
McKinsey & Company 11
We expect demand to exceed the current supply of workforce in
many areas of the country
Illustration of factors impacting clinical FTEs during COVID-19 epidemic
KEY TAKEAWAYS
Healthcare worker shortage in any region
influenced by
 Infection rate by COVID-19
 Call-out rate
 Availability of specific types of roles (e.g.,
across physicians, nurses, RTs)
 Setting – urban or rural (e.g., population
density, healthcare infrastructure)
Certain levers may help alleviate
workforce constraint
 Utilize overtime, which could be enabled
by health, safety and support for family /
dependents
 Redeploy other available staff,
supplemented by upskilling and new team
based care models where appropriate
 Expand pool of staff by re-hiring former
practitioners, bringing back retirees,
seeking caregivers from outside of
geography, etc.
Nurse FTE likely reduced during COVID-19
due to infection and call-outs
Certain levers can help improve workforce
capacity, but still expect to be a shortage
Base /
normal
nursing
workforce
Loss in
workforce
due to
COVID-19
infection
Loss in
workforce
due to
call-out
Remaining
nursing
workforce
available
Flex up with
additional
shifts,
overtime
and contract
labor
Remaining
shortage
Expand
total pool of
staff beyond
immediate
workforce
Redeploy
other staff,
with up-
skilling and
new team
based care
models
Higher than
normal nurse
workforce
needed during
COVID-19
Illustrative ONLY
These perspectives are intended to build from CDC and other guidance based on operations and management experience. Please continue to consult CDC, state health department, and medical societies for the
most up-to-date guidance. These perspectives are not intended as a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. Any actions impacting clinical decisioning should be vetted by the appropriate
quality committees within your organization.
Current as of April 1, 2020
McKinsey & Company 12
Many geographies are likely to experience shortages in
staff at peak COVID-19 demand scenarios
Current as of April 1, 2020
20
0
60
40
20-3010-200-10 30-40 40-50
Current capacity
 Use existing ICU
and acute care beds
only
 No conversion of
beds
Assertive capacity
 Convert other beds
for ICU and acute
care use
Scenario 1
(2% attack rate2, “Wuhan” ramp up curve)
Bed
resource
capacity
Scenario 2
(15% attack rate2, slow ramp up curve)Gap analysis to follow
Demand for nurses1 Base case supply of nurses1
0
20
40
60
10-200-10 20-30 30-40 40-50
0
20
60
40
0-10 30-4010-20 20-30 40-50
20
60
0
40
30-4020-3010-200-10 40-50
Workforce gap
Workforce gap
Workforce gap
Workforce gap
(thousands of workers)A
B
C
D
EXAMPLE FOR AN ILLUSTRATIVE METRO AREA
CRITICAL & ACUTE CARE NURSING EXAMPLE
1. Includes nurses in both critical care and acute care settings. Base case supply of nurses assumes there will be reduction due to infections & call offs, but no overtime and no redeployment of resources
2. Proportion of confirmed cases compared to total population
Source: McKinsey’s COVID-19 Workforce Capacity model
(days)
(thousands of workers)
(days)
(thousands of workers)
(days)
(thousands of workers)
(days)
McKinsey & Company 13
Model A
 Disease: 2% attack rate2
and Wuhan ramp up
 Current bed capacity: use
existing critical care and
acute care beds only, no
conversion
Model D
 Disease: 15% attack
rate2 and slow ramp up
 Assertive bed capacity:
convert additional beds
to critical care and acute
care needs
~35K
~62K
Forecasted
workforce demand at
peak period
Count of nurses1
1. Includes nurses from both critical care facilities and acute care facilities; length of peak period is set at 10-day interval
2. Proportion of confirmed cases compared to total population.
Includes overtime
only
Includes overtime
and clinician
redeployment
Base Case, with
reduction due to
infections & call offs
~24K
(68%)
~22K
(62%)
~15K
(41%)
~44K
(72%)
~39K
(63%)
~27K
(43%)
Even by flexing these levers, significant workforce
gap exists to be planned for
1 2 3
Shortage of nurses at peak demand (# and % of need unfilled)1
EXAMPLE FOR AN ILLUSTRATIVE METRO AREA
CRITICAL & ACUTE CARE NURSING EXAMPLE
Preparing for flex capacity may help meet the gap, but will require
taking action now
Source: McKinsey’s COVID-19 Workforce Capacity model
Current as of April 1, 2020
McKinsey & Company 14
Options to address: Example staffing levers with potential to create
flex capacity in the system in emergency situations
 Minimize staff infection rate through established protocols, training, and support
 Manage staff call-out rate by providing assistance in non-work related matters
— Concierge-like help with childcare, family care, living arrangements, etc.
— Physical, psychological, and emotional support and consultation
 Expand use of overtime where possible
 Hire additional contract agency resources
 Productivity enhancements (e.g., tele-consults and remote monitoring, discharge planning, care models)
 Redeploy healthcare professionals across regions, potentially tapping into furloughed
healthcare employees from other areas
 Where appropriate, retrain or upskill healthcare professionals from other settings or
specialties and incorporate as part of new team based care models
 Reactivate trained healthcare workers who are not working in healthcare
 Tap into pool of recent clinician retirees
 Increase connection to clinicians in training programs (e.g., nursing, medical schools) to support
appropriate roles
 Address staffing needs beyond critical care clinicians, including behavior health professionals,
logistics providers, and more
Fully deploy
current staff to
current roles
Redeploy other
capable staff to
new roles
Expand pool of
total available
staff
Flex levers will need to be
accompanied by staff training
and oversight/support, as well
as legal protections
1
2
3
NOT EXHAUSTIVE
Current as of April 1, 2020
These perspectives are intended to build from CDC and other guidance based on operations and management experience. Please continue to consult CDC, state health department, and medical societies for the most up-to-date
guidance. These perspectives are not intended as a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. Any actions impacting clinical decisioning should be vetted by the appropriate quality committees within your organization.
Risks and tradeoffs
must be thoroughly
evaluated for all levers
McKinsey & Company 15
1: Childcare and other ‘outside of work’ support services can help
reduce staff call-out and enable overtime
Health systems and hotels
providing lodging for workers
who don’t want to and/or cannot
go home due to risk of exposing
other people (e.g., elderly parents,
immunocompromised spouse or
children)
Caregiver platforms and
childcare services providers
working on new programs
Source: Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, New York Post, wkow.com, Fiercehealthcare.com, expert interviews March 2020
Local daycares staying open
for children of healthcare /
essential – supporting
maximum of 10 children, in line
with “Shelter in Place” order
Crowdsourcing to match
caregivers to needs on local
social medial platformsPrivate companies convert
office space into 24/7 daycare
centers; have staff ensuring
safety, hygiene, and nutrition for
children
NOT EXHAUSTIVE
Current as of April 1, 2020
McKinsey & Company 16
 Family Med. - Adult Medicine
 Internal Med. - Endocrinology, Diabetes
& Metabolism
 General Practice / General Family Med.
 RN – Rehabilitation
 RN – Community care
 RN – Case Management
Group 3:
Healthcare professionals with
related skills requiring
upskilling to cover components
or some of the skills needed
 Surgery - Surgical Oncology
 Surgery - General Surgery
 Internal Med. - Hematology & Oncology
 Internal Med. - Cardiovascular Disease
 Internal Med. - Infectious Disease
 RN – Oncology
 RN – Med / Surg / Tele
 RN – LTAC
Group 2:
Healthcare professionals
with complementary or partial
skills who could flex into roles or
partial roles needed
Group 1:
Healthcare professionals
currently doing this work and well
versed in skills needed
 Intensivist
 Anesthesiology - Critical Care Medicine
 General Emergency Medicine
 RN – Critical Care (ICU,
Medical ICU, SICU, CVICU,
Specialty ICU, etc.)
 RN – PICU
 RN – Step down
Nursing role examples:Physician role examples:Groups of suitable roles
Critical Care (ICU) Example
Sample Skills needed: Managing patients on ventilators, managing critical care plans, inserting central lines
2: Example healthcare workforce groups that may readily, or to some
capacity, flex to support demand in emergency scenario
NOT EXHAUSTIVE: EXACT LIST WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CARE MODEL AND TRAININGS
 Respiratory technician
 RN – Med / Surg / Tele
 RN – Pulmonary
 RN – Critical Care (ICU,
Medical ICU, SICU, CVICU,
Specialty ICU, etc.)
 RN - ED
 Respiratory therapist
 Nurse anesthetist
Resp. Therapist examples:
These perspectives are intended to build from CDC and other guidance based on operations and management experience. Please continue to consult CDC, state health department, and medical societies for the most up-to-date
guidance. These perspectives are not intended as a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. Any actions impacting clinical decisioning should be vetted by the appropriate quality committees within your organization.
Current as of April 1, 2020
McKinsey & Company 17
3: Calls to action to ‘expand the pool’
Example from New York State
 To collect qualification information, NY State Health Department
website hosts a survey for healthcare professionals and medical
schools
 More than 50,000 people have heeded the governor’s call for
assistance, including 2,300 physicians, 16,300 RN, 900 physician
assistants,160 respiratory therapists, and 8,600 mental health
professionals
 Governor announced initiative to create reserve
workforce of healthcare professionals "on call" for
coronavirus response
 Initiative called for support form individual healthcare
professionals, as well as medical schools and public
health schools
 New York Department of Health will also accelerate
recertifications to expedite the process
Source: CBS news, New York Department of Health
Other states similarly taking
action (e.g., CO, IL, CA)
Current as of April 1, 2020
McKinsey & Company 18
Example Federal actions1 (non-exhaustive)
Flexibility in working across state for Medicare and Medicaid
Waiver to allow providers to render services outside of their state of enrollment
for both Medicare and Medicaid
Flexibility in enrollment for Medicare
Blanket Medicare waiver to simplify provider enrollment (e.g., waive of
background checks, application fee), with equivalent Medicaid waivers upon
request by states
Telehealth reimbursement for Medicare FFS
CMS announced Medicare FFS would reimburse telehealth services at the
same rate as in-person for many common office visits, with no restrictions on
patient location
Limit liability for volunteer healthcare professionals during COVID-19
emergency response (Cares Act)
Additional provisions (CMS and Cares Act) facilitating healthcare worker
benefits, transfer of patients, top of license performance, ease of
documentation, and more
Example state actions (non-exhaustive)
Flexibility in enrollment for Medicaid2
Florida and Washington states have successfully applied for Medicaid waivers
to simplify provider enrollment (e.g., waive of background checks, application
fee)
Waiver of state licensing requirements for out-of-state providers
Examples include:
Washington3 – allows registered volunteer healthcare practitioners verified to
be in good standing in all the states where they are licensed to practice in
Washington without obtaining a Washington license4
Tennessee5 – allows healthcare professionals licensed in another state to
practice, if they are assisting in the medical response of COVID-19, upon
discretion of the Commission of Health
Waiver of state licensing requirements for retired providers
Example include:
Illinois6 – Physicians whose licenses are expired or inactive for less than three
years can temporarily restore their license, for no fee or continuing education
requirement7
2/3: Government actions in
response to capacity
constraints – Workforce
1. CMS Guidance, March 13 2020 https://www.cms.gov/files/document/covid19-emergency-declaration-health-care-providers-fact-sheet.pdf
2. Florida State’s Approval Letter March 16 2020 https://www.medicaid.gov/state-resource-center/downloads/fl-section-1135-appvl.pdf
Washington State’s Approval Letter March 19 2020 https://www.medicaid.gov/state-resource-center/disaster-response-toolkit/federal-disaster-
resources/?entry=54022
3. Washington Medical Commission https://wmc.wa.gov/news/emergency-volunteer-health-practitioner-act-activated
4. Once activated and assigned by the state's Department of Health
5. Tennessee executive order https://publications.tnsosfiles.com/pub/execorders/exec-orders-lee14.pdf
6. Illinois state news https://www2.illinois.gov/Pages/news-item.aspx?ReleaseID=21290
7. To work under the direction of Illinois Emergency Management Agency ("IEMA") and the Illinois Department of Public Health ("IDPH") or in a long-term
care facility, hospital, or federally qualified health center ("FQHC")
Current as of March 23, 2020
McKinsey & Company 19
PPE best-practices
Targeted skill
building
On-boarding and re-
entry to IP medicine
and critical care
Types of training Description Audience
Guidelines and effective use
Personal sanitation
Intubation
Ventilator management and patient care
IV maintenance and infusion therapy
ARDS
ACLS
Critical care patient management
COVID-19 patient management
All audiences
Alternative care
sites
Management in field setting
Patient triage and diversion
Potential provider
CDC
Administrators
Volunteers
Attending physicians
EMTs
FEMA/HHS
Physicians or nurses being
upskilled or flexing across
settings
Inactive physicians and
nurses re-entering the IP or
critical care environment
Leading public or private
health systems
American Red Cross (ACLS)
Medical associations and
accreditation bodies (e.g.,
ANA, AACN, AMA, SSCM)
Medical or Nursing school
faculty
NOT EXHAUSTIVE
2/3: Examples of potential upskilling / training needs during
COVID-19 emergency situations
These perspectives are intended to build from CDC and other guidance based on operations and management experience. Please continue to consult CDC, state health department, and medical societies for the most up-to-date
guidance. These perspectives are not intended as a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. Any actions impacting clinical decisioning should be vetted by the appropriate quality committees within your organization.
SOURCE: Expert interviews March 2020
McKinsey & Company 20
Table of contents:
Provider workforce
Dynamics at play for healthcare workforce
Creating and supporting incremental capacity
Longer term implications and considerations
McKinsey & Company 21
4 steps organizations are considering as they manage their way
through the Covid-19 crisis
Implications
for broader
business
Step 1
Resolve
Determining the
scale, pace and
depth of action
required
immediately at the
state and
business levels
Keep all
employees safe,
and well informed
while ensuring
business
continuity
Step 2
Resilience
Formulating the
broader resilience
plans to manage
the shock that
begins to upturn
established
industry structures
Manage resources
carefully, while
adopting a
through-the-cycle
mindset
Step 3
Return
Returning
businesses to
operational health
after a severe
shutdown and to
manage around
the risk from a
second surge
Support
employees in
getting work done,
productively and
with strong
engagement
Implications
for talent
leaders
Step 4
Reimagine and
Reform
Learning from the
plethora of social
innovations and
experiments, and
identifying which
innovations, if
adopted, might
provide substantial
uplift to economic
and social welfare
Rethink operating
model and ways of
working in the next
normal
Critical near
term focus Looking ahead
McKinsey & Company 22
Using learnings from COVID-19 crisis to faster track training and top of license focus for clinicians
Hard-wiring approach for future healthcare workforce planning (e.g., estimate number of staff
needed, sourcing from pre-qualified reserve staff with more regular ‘true ups’ / skills training,
determination of emergency staffing model) in response to future emergency crises
Partnership opportunities sparked by new collaborations / resourcefulness (e.g., public as a more
active participant in healthcare workforce, private sector resources)
NOT EXHAUSTIVE
Looking ahead: Potential themes to consider for longer term
healthcare workforce needs
Resilience Planning and support for workforce needs in impacted non acute locations (e.g., dialysis, long term
care, home health)
Return
Reimagination
and reform
Preparing to support increased needs for behavioral health services (e.g., use of peers, tele-
support, enhanced consultation/screening) in post COVID-19 recovery (for caregivers, patients,
families) and communities (as economic effects take hold)
Workforce implications given emergence of modern tools and technologies (e.g., telehealth,
remote workforce, self-diagnostic apps, artificial intelligence and chatbox) as a more permanent
part of care pathway and patient/caregiver expectations
More permanent, mobile-friendly e-tools to enable rapid, supportive, staff communication and
engagement; pursuit of additional approaches to support caregiver healing post-crisis
Q&A and reflections
from entry poll
McKinsey & Company 24
Appendix: Provider checklists
McKinsey & Company 25
Detailed checklist: Clinical workforce (1/2)
COVID-19 risks exacerbating the current national shortage of healthcare (nursing) workers
Monitoring and protecting workforce healthShifts in staffing supply
These perspectives are intended to build from CDC and other guidance based on operations and management experience. Please continue to consult CDC,
state health department, and medical societies for the most up-to-date guidance. These perspectives are not intended as a substitute for professional medical
advice, diagnosis or treatment. Any actions impacting clinical decisioning should be vetted by the appropriate quality committees within your organization.
Develop clear action plan for staffing to ensure full coverage
in case of demand surge (e.g., reduced workforce supply,
increase demand from disease), including plans for:
 Recruiting and training additional labor
 Uptraining or cross-training personnel for appropriate
specialty skill set
 Ensuring adherence to union/labor contracts (e.g., liability
insurance, temporary licensing)
 Delivering just-in-time training where appropriate
 Identifying local support measures (e.g., travel, childcare,
care for family members) to enable staff flexibility for shift
reassignment and longer working hours
Consider extra safe-guards/isolation for staff who are pregnant, immunocompromised, cannot
wear PPE for extended periods or are the sole caregiver of dependents from treating high
risk/COVID-19 individuals
Establish protocols and processes for employees around:
 Monitoring (e.g., self-monitoring with delegated supervision, active monitoring for fatigue
and ulcers from extended PPE wear) and reporting protocol
 Rapid detection and evaluation (e.g., when symptomatic)
 Quarantining enforcement protocol (inpatient and at-home)
Deploy latest CDC/public health recommendations on means, need and duration for
continuously monitoring employee symptoms
Ensure effective systems of behavioral health support and self-care to mitigate / address
healthcare workforce fears, distress, anxiety and fatigue
McKinsey & Company 26
Detailed checklist: Healthcare workforce (2/2)
COVID-19 risks exacerbating the current national shortage of healthcare workers
These perspectives are intended to build from CDC and other guidance based on operations and management experience. Please continue to consult CDC,
state health department, and medical societies for the most up-to-date guidance. These perspectives are not intended as a substitute for professional medical
advice, diagnosis or treatment. Any actions impacting clinical decisioning should be vetted by the appropriate quality committees within your organization.
Using CDC guidelines, source / develop and deliver accurate training to all care
personnel on COVID-19 response protocol in multiple formats, including:
 Clinical guidelines (e.g., screening, treatment, isolation, transport)
 Patient communication scripting around diagnosis, evaluation, treatment,
quarantine etc.
 Infection control (e.g., donning/doffing PPE, N95 fittings, waste management)
 Laboratory specimen collection and handling/waste
 Hospital Incident Command System
 Internal and external communication
Regularly test and strengthen staff knowledge on critical areas
 Periodic relevant drills / exercises for pathogen outbreak
 Individual knowledge assessments
 Surveillance testing (e.g., “mystery patient”)
 Update hospital staff contact list
 Establish system to monitor staff absenteeism, including contingencies
for ill or injured
 Ensure staff are up-to-date on appropriate immunizations
Training and education General human resource management

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COVID-19 crisis: US Healthcare preparedness - provider workforce

  • 1. CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY Any use of this material without specific permission of McKinsey & Company is strictly prohibited HSS WEBINAR SERIES April 2, 2020 | 11amET COVID-19 Crisis: US Healthcare Preparedness – Provider Workforce
  • 2. McKinsey & Company 2 We are excited to be here with you today Gretchen Berlin, RN Partner, Healthcare Systems & Services Co-leader of Provider Performance Improvement Meredith Lapointe Partner, Healthcare Systems & Services Co-leader of Provider Performance Improvement Li Han Expert Associate Partner, Healthcare Systems & Services Co-leader of Provider Workforce Excellence Bryan Hancock Partner Global Leader, Talent service line Dr. Pooja Kumar Partner, Healthcare Systems & Services Leader of the Healthcare COVID-19 response team Erica Coe Partner, Co-leader of Center for Societal Benefit through Healthcare Co-leader of Center for US Health System Reform Kana Enamoto Senior Expert Leader in mental-health and substance-use policy, data, programs, and practice improvement Mhoire Murphy Partner, Healthcare Systems & Services Co-leader of Provider Workforce Excellence
  • 3. McKinsey & Company 3 Solving the COVID-19 humanitarian challenge is the top priority. Much remains to be done globally to prepare, respond, and recover, from protecting populations at risk, to supporting affected patients/ families/ communities, to developing a vaccine. To address this crisis, countries including the US will need to respond in an evidence- informed manner, leveraging public health infrastructure and proactive leadership. This document is meant to help with a narrower goal: provide a summarized fact base on the disease to date, insights on potential scenarios for the US healthcare workforce, and potential actions stakeholders may consider as it could relate to needs posed by COVID-19. In addition, we have developed a broader perspective on implications for businesses across sectors that can be found here: https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/risk/our-insights/COVID-19-implications-for- business. This supplemental material discusses implications for the wider economy, businesses, and employment; and sets out some of those challenges and how organizations can respond in order to protect their people and navigate through an uncertain situation. For all formal guidance, you can find up-to-date information at CDC’s COVID-19 website, with a section specific to healthcare professionals or healthcare organizations: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019- ncov/healthcare-facilities/index.html
  • 4. McKinsey & Company 4 Disclaimer This document has been prepared to provide general insights and best practices on healthcare workforce planning in light of potential scenarios around workforce supply and demand during the COVID-19 pandemic. Many of the approaches discussed in this document would only be considered in truly emergency capacity situations, keeping patient and caregiver safety paramount. This document is not intended to provide clinical guidance or medical advice/recommendations, which should remain firmly guided by and subject to hospital, local and/or national guidelines and approvals. Any use of this material without the specific permission of McKinsey is strictly prohibited. McKinsey does not provide legal, medical or other regulated advice or guarantee results. The perspectives contained herein assume action consistent with, and in no way are meant to imply that steps be taken contrary to, any applicable laws. Any actions impacting the treatment of patients and/or clinical decisioning should be vetted by the appropriate quality committees within your organization. These materials reflect general insight and best practice based on information currently available and do not contain all of the information needed to determine a future course of action. Such information has not been generated or independently verified by McKinsey and is inherently uncertain and subject to change. McKinsey has no obligation to update these materials and makes no representation or warranty and expressly disclaims any liability with respect thereto.
  • 5. McKinsey & Company 5 People are at the core of managing this crisis - with the clinicians and broader patient care support teams playing indispensable roles Healthcare stakeholders are going to need to think differently about how to solve the workforce challenge posed by COVID-19 COVID-19 patient care ecosystem Lab, imaging, pharmacy specialists Clinical specialists (e.g., respiratory therapist, mental health professionals, case managers) EVS and care support Physicians Nurses PCTs / CNAs First responders Advanced Practice ProvidersAdministrators
  • 6. McKinsey & Company 6 Table of contents: Provider workforce Dynamics at play for healthcare workforce Creating and supporting incremental capacity Longer term implications and considerations
  • 7. McKinsey & Company 7 Healthcare workforce is complex and different categories of employees will have different needs during this time The impact of disruption and potential strategies to mitigate will differ by category Category Description Key considerations Category 1: COVID Caregivers Workers who are fulfilling the need for current health system demand related to COVID-19 (e.g., hospitalists, critical care physicians, ICU RNs, security at the hospital, lab technicians, care managers) Demand is high: Creating additional capacity is critical, through flexing up, contract labor, activating cross-trained personnel Supply is strained: Large increase in strain on workforce with childcare, quarantine and other factors Ensure there are strategies in place to avoid burnout Category 2: Other Caregivers Workers who are caring for patients / other populations not related to COVID-19 (e.g., speech language pathology techs, orthopedic surgeons, clinic receptionists) Many patients will still require life-saving and critical maintenance care, requiring healthcare workers to continue working but potentially in creative ways (e.g., more telehealth, sanitization efforts in care sites, home care support) Physician and others’ productivity will be impacted which may raise questions and concerns around areas such as compensation Some caregivers’ skills may be useful in COVID-19 support and all hands on deck approach may be needed with some flexing / re-skilling Category 3: Workers with likely reduced demand Workers who are potentially under-employed or unable to work their usual jobs because of COVID- 19 (e.g., researchers in closed labs, food workers at closed site, home health workers) High anxiety over job security, ability to make living wages (especially among hourly employees); clear messaging will be needed to manage panic and show support Need to be creative in thinking through how to mobilize some of these employees in a productive way (e.g., supporting community programs, trainings etc.) Considerations around flexing down of staff and/or use of furloughs where necessary Category 4: Workers who must work differently Workers who are less impacted by COVID-19 directly (i.e. can do same work done from home) (e.g., administrators, coders etc.) Tools to complete work and new ways to stay connected will be needed; likely reduction in productivity can be expected in several areas Considerations around how to flex staff and ensure some of “business as usual” continues so support functions can continue to operate Current as of April 1, 2020 These perspectives are intended to build from CDC and other guidance based on operations and management experience. Please continue to consult CDC, state health department, and medical societies for the most up-to-date guidance. These perspectives are not intended as a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. Any actions impacting clinical decisioning should be vetted by the appropriate quality committees within your organization.
  • 8. McKinsey & Company 8 Preparedness to address a set of unique challenges in workforce readiness is critical during the COVID-19 crisis Across a spectrum of healthcare workers Workforce focus Category 1 Category 2, Category 3 All Categories Workforce morale / “burnout”Workforce readiness / flexingWorkforce shortages Challenges Work-related: over work and fatigue (e.g., staying in-hospital for extended periods); anxiety from infection risk for self and others; resource constraints / difficult work environment (e.g., re- using of PPE); patient losses and “war-like” decision-making needs (e.g., which patients to triage for limited ICUs) Systemic: Increase in other duties (child care, sick care etc.); lack of community support (e.g., in prevention of infection, reducing burdens etc.); loss of productivity from change in structure (e.g., WFH) Guidance and communication: rapidly evolving evidence-base for COVID-19 with new information daily; non-centralized, disparate communication on roles Flexing and re-skilling: shift restrictions (hourly and weekly restrictions); licensure ceilings (e.g., who can work in ICUs); time and resources for re- skilling (needed to train in ventilator mgt.); lack of readiness for using tech in pandemic situations (e.g., e-ICUs, management of moderate symptoms by phone etc.) Increasing capacity: unsuitability of traditional methods such as travelers (e.g., travel restriction, global demand); difficulty in rapidly engaging non- traditional sources (medical students, IMGs, retired HCPs) due to regulatory, legal, patient safety issues Reducing losses: expected COVID-19 infection of HCPs; burnout / fatigue of frontline workers; non- clinical imperatives for workers (childcare, elderly care etc.) Solutions Support for HCPs in-house (e.g., food, childcare, online resources on working in this environment etc.) Community support for HCPs – for childcare, grocery pick-up, etc. Proactive mental health support for HCPs Centralized information from nerve center Re-structuring shifts to improve efficiency Identifying and flexing providers who can move to category 1 (e.g., double boarded physicians, nurses with ICU experience etc.) Creating rapid re-skilling materials (e.g., e-learning for vent mgt.) Optimizing virtual health Identify senior medical and surgical residents who can be transitioned to independent practice Policy changes to increase pool of providers (e.g., rapid license issuing) Prioritizing of infection control (e.g., PPEs, public education etc.) Working with FEMA / support organization for systemic response Structure support systems for childcare, eldercare etc. Non-exhaustive Current as of April 1, 2020 These perspectives are intended to build from CDC and other guidance based on operations and management experience. Please continue to consult CDC, state health department, and medical societies for the most up-to-date guidance. These perspectives are not intended as a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. Any actions impacting clinical decisioning should be vetted by the appropriate quality committees within your organization.
  • 9. McKinsey & Company 9 Stakeholders are already coming together to deploy a number of tactics Current as of April 1, 2020 Source: Wall Street Journal, CNN, The New York Times, Time.com, Fiercehealthcare.com, Uber.com, AP News, expert interviews March 2020 Protect health and safety of employees Initiating safety precautions – e.g., PPE rationing and PPE usage protocols in event of shortage Designing segregated areas for COVID-19 cohorts to prevent contamination to other departments Seeking PPE donation from other healthcare specialists and the public Restricting visitors at hospitals Shifting more to telemedicine where possible Crowdsource workplace issues and best practices for fighting COVID-19 among healthcare workers Create additional workforce capacity Hiring temporary nurses and medical workers Asking employees to volunteer more shifts Building volunteer lists and staff databases that can fill workforce gaps at hospitals (retirees, those in different professions) Enlisting medical school students for nonpatient-facing duties (e.g., call center triage, pharmacy support, blood donation support) with supervision Provide solutions beyond the scope of traditional employee support Identifying and offering child care services for healthcare workers (through own resources or partnerships with cities/municipalities) in compliance with standard group size limits Providing housing accommodations for employees during quarantine or who want to ensure a separate living place to avoid potentially exposing family members to COVID-19 Keep morale up and prevent burnout Increasing system-wide communication/engagement (e.g., townhalls, question hot lines, etc.) Showing public recognition and support for healthcare workers from broader society (e.g., recognition posts on social media, healthcare worker applause campaigns) Increasing access to behavioral health resources (e.g., Ginger offering U.S. health systems free behavioral health coaching through June 2020) Providing meals (e.g., UberEats, Sweetgreen offering free meals to healthcare workers and first responders)1 Not Exhaustive Examples of recent initiatives and efforts to support healthcare workforce 1 On 3/16, Uber Eats committed to 300,000 free meals in US and Canada; As of 4/1, Sweetgreen has delivered 10,000 meals to hospitals across the country and is partnering with World Central Kitchen with a goal of serving over 100,000 meals.
  • 10. McKinsey & Company 10 Table of contents: Provider workforce Dynamics at play for healthcare workforce Creating and supporting incremental capacity Longer term implications and considerations
  • 11. McKinsey & Company 11 We expect demand to exceed the current supply of workforce in many areas of the country Illustration of factors impacting clinical FTEs during COVID-19 epidemic KEY TAKEAWAYS Healthcare worker shortage in any region influenced by  Infection rate by COVID-19  Call-out rate  Availability of specific types of roles (e.g., across physicians, nurses, RTs)  Setting – urban or rural (e.g., population density, healthcare infrastructure) Certain levers may help alleviate workforce constraint  Utilize overtime, which could be enabled by health, safety and support for family / dependents  Redeploy other available staff, supplemented by upskilling and new team based care models where appropriate  Expand pool of staff by re-hiring former practitioners, bringing back retirees, seeking caregivers from outside of geography, etc. Nurse FTE likely reduced during COVID-19 due to infection and call-outs Certain levers can help improve workforce capacity, but still expect to be a shortage Base / normal nursing workforce Loss in workforce due to COVID-19 infection Loss in workforce due to call-out Remaining nursing workforce available Flex up with additional shifts, overtime and contract labor Remaining shortage Expand total pool of staff beyond immediate workforce Redeploy other staff, with up- skilling and new team based care models Higher than normal nurse workforce needed during COVID-19 Illustrative ONLY These perspectives are intended to build from CDC and other guidance based on operations and management experience. Please continue to consult CDC, state health department, and medical societies for the most up-to-date guidance. These perspectives are not intended as a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. Any actions impacting clinical decisioning should be vetted by the appropriate quality committees within your organization. Current as of April 1, 2020
  • 12. McKinsey & Company 12 Many geographies are likely to experience shortages in staff at peak COVID-19 demand scenarios Current as of April 1, 2020 20 0 60 40 20-3010-200-10 30-40 40-50 Current capacity  Use existing ICU and acute care beds only  No conversion of beds Assertive capacity  Convert other beds for ICU and acute care use Scenario 1 (2% attack rate2, “Wuhan” ramp up curve) Bed resource capacity Scenario 2 (15% attack rate2, slow ramp up curve)Gap analysis to follow Demand for nurses1 Base case supply of nurses1 0 20 40 60 10-200-10 20-30 30-40 40-50 0 20 60 40 0-10 30-4010-20 20-30 40-50 20 60 0 40 30-4020-3010-200-10 40-50 Workforce gap Workforce gap Workforce gap Workforce gap (thousands of workers)A B C D EXAMPLE FOR AN ILLUSTRATIVE METRO AREA CRITICAL & ACUTE CARE NURSING EXAMPLE 1. Includes nurses in both critical care and acute care settings. Base case supply of nurses assumes there will be reduction due to infections & call offs, but no overtime and no redeployment of resources 2. Proportion of confirmed cases compared to total population Source: McKinsey’s COVID-19 Workforce Capacity model (days) (thousands of workers) (days) (thousands of workers) (days) (thousands of workers) (days)
  • 13. McKinsey & Company 13 Model A  Disease: 2% attack rate2 and Wuhan ramp up  Current bed capacity: use existing critical care and acute care beds only, no conversion Model D  Disease: 15% attack rate2 and slow ramp up  Assertive bed capacity: convert additional beds to critical care and acute care needs ~35K ~62K Forecasted workforce demand at peak period Count of nurses1 1. Includes nurses from both critical care facilities and acute care facilities; length of peak period is set at 10-day interval 2. Proportion of confirmed cases compared to total population. Includes overtime only Includes overtime and clinician redeployment Base Case, with reduction due to infections & call offs ~24K (68%) ~22K (62%) ~15K (41%) ~44K (72%) ~39K (63%) ~27K (43%) Even by flexing these levers, significant workforce gap exists to be planned for 1 2 3 Shortage of nurses at peak demand (# and % of need unfilled)1 EXAMPLE FOR AN ILLUSTRATIVE METRO AREA CRITICAL & ACUTE CARE NURSING EXAMPLE Preparing for flex capacity may help meet the gap, but will require taking action now Source: McKinsey’s COVID-19 Workforce Capacity model Current as of April 1, 2020
  • 14. McKinsey & Company 14 Options to address: Example staffing levers with potential to create flex capacity in the system in emergency situations  Minimize staff infection rate through established protocols, training, and support  Manage staff call-out rate by providing assistance in non-work related matters — Concierge-like help with childcare, family care, living arrangements, etc. — Physical, psychological, and emotional support and consultation  Expand use of overtime where possible  Hire additional contract agency resources  Productivity enhancements (e.g., tele-consults and remote monitoring, discharge planning, care models)  Redeploy healthcare professionals across regions, potentially tapping into furloughed healthcare employees from other areas  Where appropriate, retrain or upskill healthcare professionals from other settings or specialties and incorporate as part of new team based care models  Reactivate trained healthcare workers who are not working in healthcare  Tap into pool of recent clinician retirees  Increase connection to clinicians in training programs (e.g., nursing, medical schools) to support appropriate roles  Address staffing needs beyond critical care clinicians, including behavior health professionals, logistics providers, and more Fully deploy current staff to current roles Redeploy other capable staff to new roles Expand pool of total available staff Flex levers will need to be accompanied by staff training and oversight/support, as well as legal protections 1 2 3 NOT EXHAUSTIVE Current as of April 1, 2020 These perspectives are intended to build from CDC and other guidance based on operations and management experience. Please continue to consult CDC, state health department, and medical societies for the most up-to-date guidance. These perspectives are not intended as a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. Any actions impacting clinical decisioning should be vetted by the appropriate quality committees within your organization. Risks and tradeoffs must be thoroughly evaluated for all levers
  • 15. McKinsey & Company 15 1: Childcare and other ‘outside of work’ support services can help reduce staff call-out and enable overtime Health systems and hotels providing lodging for workers who don’t want to and/or cannot go home due to risk of exposing other people (e.g., elderly parents, immunocompromised spouse or children) Caregiver platforms and childcare services providers working on new programs Source: Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, New York Post, wkow.com, Fiercehealthcare.com, expert interviews March 2020 Local daycares staying open for children of healthcare / essential – supporting maximum of 10 children, in line with “Shelter in Place” order Crowdsourcing to match caregivers to needs on local social medial platformsPrivate companies convert office space into 24/7 daycare centers; have staff ensuring safety, hygiene, and nutrition for children NOT EXHAUSTIVE Current as of April 1, 2020
  • 16. McKinsey & Company 16  Family Med. - Adult Medicine  Internal Med. - Endocrinology, Diabetes & Metabolism  General Practice / General Family Med.  RN – Rehabilitation  RN – Community care  RN – Case Management Group 3: Healthcare professionals with related skills requiring upskilling to cover components or some of the skills needed  Surgery - Surgical Oncology  Surgery - General Surgery  Internal Med. - Hematology & Oncology  Internal Med. - Cardiovascular Disease  Internal Med. - Infectious Disease  RN – Oncology  RN – Med / Surg / Tele  RN – LTAC Group 2: Healthcare professionals with complementary or partial skills who could flex into roles or partial roles needed Group 1: Healthcare professionals currently doing this work and well versed in skills needed  Intensivist  Anesthesiology - Critical Care Medicine  General Emergency Medicine  RN – Critical Care (ICU, Medical ICU, SICU, CVICU, Specialty ICU, etc.)  RN – PICU  RN – Step down Nursing role examples:Physician role examples:Groups of suitable roles Critical Care (ICU) Example Sample Skills needed: Managing patients on ventilators, managing critical care plans, inserting central lines 2: Example healthcare workforce groups that may readily, or to some capacity, flex to support demand in emergency scenario NOT EXHAUSTIVE: EXACT LIST WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CARE MODEL AND TRAININGS  Respiratory technician  RN – Med / Surg / Tele  RN – Pulmonary  RN – Critical Care (ICU, Medical ICU, SICU, CVICU, Specialty ICU, etc.)  RN - ED  Respiratory therapist  Nurse anesthetist Resp. Therapist examples: These perspectives are intended to build from CDC and other guidance based on operations and management experience. Please continue to consult CDC, state health department, and medical societies for the most up-to-date guidance. These perspectives are not intended as a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. Any actions impacting clinical decisioning should be vetted by the appropriate quality committees within your organization. Current as of April 1, 2020
  • 17. McKinsey & Company 17 3: Calls to action to ‘expand the pool’ Example from New York State  To collect qualification information, NY State Health Department website hosts a survey for healthcare professionals and medical schools  More than 50,000 people have heeded the governor’s call for assistance, including 2,300 physicians, 16,300 RN, 900 physician assistants,160 respiratory therapists, and 8,600 mental health professionals  Governor announced initiative to create reserve workforce of healthcare professionals "on call" for coronavirus response  Initiative called for support form individual healthcare professionals, as well as medical schools and public health schools  New York Department of Health will also accelerate recertifications to expedite the process Source: CBS news, New York Department of Health Other states similarly taking action (e.g., CO, IL, CA) Current as of April 1, 2020
  • 18. McKinsey & Company 18 Example Federal actions1 (non-exhaustive) Flexibility in working across state for Medicare and Medicaid Waiver to allow providers to render services outside of their state of enrollment for both Medicare and Medicaid Flexibility in enrollment for Medicare Blanket Medicare waiver to simplify provider enrollment (e.g., waive of background checks, application fee), with equivalent Medicaid waivers upon request by states Telehealth reimbursement for Medicare FFS CMS announced Medicare FFS would reimburse telehealth services at the same rate as in-person for many common office visits, with no restrictions on patient location Limit liability for volunteer healthcare professionals during COVID-19 emergency response (Cares Act) Additional provisions (CMS and Cares Act) facilitating healthcare worker benefits, transfer of patients, top of license performance, ease of documentation, and more Example state actions (non-exhaustive) Flexibility in enrollment for Medicaid2 Florida and Washington states have successfully applied for Medicaid waivers to simplify provider enrollment (e.g., waive of background checks, application fee) Waiver of state licensing requirements for out-of-state providers Examples include: Washington3 – allows registered volunteer healthcare practitioners verified to be in good standing in all the states where they are licensed to practice in Washington without obtaining a Washington license4 Tennessee5 – allows healthcare professionals licensed in another state to practice, if they are assisting in the medical response of COVID-19, upon discretion of the Commission of Health Waiver of state licensing requirements for retired providers Example include: Illinois6 – Physicians whose licenses are expired or inactive for less than three years can temporarily restore their license, for no fee or continuing education requirement7 2/3: Government actions in response to capacity constraints – Workforce 1. CMS Guidance, March 13 2020 https://www.cms.gov/files/document/covid19-emergency-declaration-health-care-providers-fact-sheet.pdf 2. Florida State’s Approval Letter March 16 2020 https://www.medicaid.gov/state-resource-center/downloads/fl-section-1135-appvl.pdf Washington State’s Approval Letter March 19 2020 https://www.medicaid.gov/state-resource-center/disaster-response-toolkit/federal-disaster- resources/?entry=54022 3. Washington Medical Commission https://wmc.wa.gov/news/emergency-volunteer-health-practitioner-act-activated 4. Once activated and assigned by the state's Department of Health 5. Tennessee executive order https://publications.tnsosfiles.com/pub/execorders/exec-orders-lee14.pdf 6. Illinois state news https://www2.illinois.gov/Pages/news-item.aspx?ReleaseID=21290 7. To work under the direction of Illinois Emergency Management Agency ("IEMA") and the Illinois Department of Public Health ("IDPH") or in a long-term care facility, hospital, or federally qualified health center ("FQHC") Current as of March 23, 2020
  • 19. McKinsey & Company 19 PPE best-practices Targeted skill building On-boarding and re- entry to IP medicine and critical care Types of training Description Audience Guidelines and effective use Personal sanitation Intubation Ventilator management and patient care IV maintenance and infusion therapy ARDS ACLS Critical care patient management COVID-19 patient management All audiences Alternative care sites Management in field setting Patient triage and diversion Potential provider CDC Administrators Volunteers Attending physicians EMTs FEMA/HHS Physicians or nurses being upskilled or flexing across settings Inactive physicians and nurses re-entering the IP or critical care environment Leading public or private health systems American Red Cross (ACLS) Medical associations and accreditation bodies (e.g., ANA, AACN, AMA, SSCM) Medical or Nursing school faculty NOT EXHAUSTIVE 2/3: Examples of potential upskilling / training needs during COVID-19 emergency situations These perspectives are intended to build from CDC and other guidance based on operations and management experience. Please continue to consult CDC, state health department, and medical societies for the most up-to-date guidance. These perspectives are not intended as a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. Any actions impacting clinical decisioning should be vetted by the appropriate quality committees within your organization. SOURCE: Expert interviews March 2020
  • 20. McKinsey & Company 20 Table of contents: Provider workforce Dynamics at play for healthcare workforce Creating and supporting incremental capacity Longer term implications and considerations
  • 21. McKinsey & Company 21 4 steps organizations are considering as they manage their way through the Covid-19 crisis Implications for broader business Step 1 Resolve Determining the scale, pace and depth of action required immediately at the state and business levels Keep all employees safe, and well informed while ensuring business continuity Step 2 Resilience Formulating the broader resilience plans to manage the shock that begins to upturn established industry structures Manage resources carefully, while adopting a through-the-cycle mindset Step 3 Return Returning businesses to operational health after a severe shutdown and to manage around the risk from a second surge Support employees in getting work done, productively and with strong engagement Implications for talent leaders Step 4 Reimagine and Reform Learning from the plethora of social innovations and experiments, and identifying which innovations, if adopted, might provide substantial uplift to economic and social welfare Rethink operating model and ways of working in the next normal Critical near term focus Looking ahead
  • 22. McKinsey & Company 22 Using learnings from COVID-19 crisis to faster track training and top of license focus for clinicians Hard-wiring approach for future healthcare workforce planning (e.g., estimate number of staff needed, sourcing from pre-qualified reserve staff with more regular ‘true ups’ / skills training, determination of emergency staffing model) in response to future emergency crises Partnership opportunities sparked by new collaborations / resourcefulness (e.g., public as a more active participant in healthcare workforce, private sector resources) NOT EXHAUSTIVE Looking ahead: Potential themes to consider for longer term healthcare workforce needs Resilience Planning and support for workforce needs in impacted non acute locations (e.g., dialysis, long term care, home health) Return Reimagination and reform Preparing to support increased needs for behavioral health services (e.g., use of peers, tele- support, enhanced consultation/screening) in post COVID-19 recovery (for caregivers, patients, families) and communities (as economic effects take hold) Workforce implications given emergence of modern tools and technologies (e.g., telehealth, remote workforce, self-diagnostic apps, artificial intelligence and chatbox) as a more permanent part of care pathway and patient/caregiver expectations More permanent, mobile-friendly e-tools to enable rapid, supportive, staff communication and engagement; pursuit of additional approaches to support caregiver healing post-crisis
  • 24. McKinsey & Company 24 Appendix: Provider checklists
  • 25. McKinsey & Company 25 Detailed checklist: Clinical workforce (1/2) COVID-19 risks exacerbating the current national shortage of healthcare (nursing) workers Monitoring and protecting workforce healthShifts in staffing supply These perspectives are intended to build from CDC and other guidance based on operations and management experience. Please continue to consult CDC, state health department, and medical societies for the most up-to-date guidance. These perspectives are not intended as a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. Any actions impacting clinical decisioning should be vetted by the appropriate quality committees within your organization. Develop clear action plan for staffing to ensure full coverage in case of demand surge (e.g., reduced workforce supply, increase demand from disease), including plans for:  Recruiting and training additional labor  Uptraining or cross-training personnel for appropriate specialty skill set  Ensuring adherence to union/labor contracts (e.g., liability insurance, temporary licensing)  Delivering just-in-time training where appropriate  Identifying local support measures (e.g., travel, childcare, care for family members) to enable staff flexibility for shift reassignment and longer working hours Consider extra safe-guards/isolation for staff who are pregnant, immunocompromised, cannot wear PPE for extended periods or are the sole caregiver of dependents from treating high risk/COVID-19 individuals Establish protocols and processes for employees around:  Monitoring (e.g., self-monitoring with delegated supervision, active monitoring for fatigue and ulcers from extended PPE wear) and reporting protocol  Rapid detection and evaluation (e.g., when symptomatic)  Quarantining enforcement protocol (inpatient and at-home) Deploy latest CDC/public health recommendations on means, need and duration for continuously monitoring employee symptoms Ensure effective systems of behavioral health support and self-care to mitigate / address healthcare workforce fears, distress, anxiety and fatigue
  • 26. McKinsey & Company 26 Detailed checklist: Healthcare workforce (2/2) COVID-19 risks exacerbating the current national shortage of healthcare workers These perspectives are intended to build from CDC and other guidance based on operations and management experience. Please continue to consult CDC, state health department, and medical societies for the most up-to-date guidance. These perspectives are not intended as a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. Any actions impacting clinical decisioning should be vetted by the appropriate quality committees within your organization. Using CDC guidelines, source / develop and deliver accurate training to all care personnel on COVID-19 response protocol in multiple formats, including:  Clinical guidelines (e.g., screening, treatment, isolation, transport)  Patient communication scripting around diagnosis, evaluation, treatment, quarantine etc.  Infection control (e.g., donning/doffing PPE, N95 fittings, waste management)  Laboratory specimen collection and handling/waste  Hospital Incident Command System  Internal and external communication Regularly test and strengthen staff knowledge on critical areas  Periodic relevant drills / exercises for pathogen outbreak  Individual knowledge assessments  Surveillance testing (e.g., “mystery patient”)  Update hospital staff contact list  Establish system to monitor staff absenteeism, including contingencies for ill or injured  Ensure staff are up-to-date on appropriate immunizations Training and education General human resource management