Pollenizer for Ateneo De Manila University (10 Dec 2013)

Harder Better Stronger Faster
The extreme pace of disruption and how
to survive it

The classifieds business
Whole industries
collapsing and
forming.

Carsales

Seek

Where Fairfax
once stood...
Fairfax

$7B > $1.5B

Phil Morle | CEO | @philmorle

Disruption is accelerating
The innovation lifecycle is getting
shorter.

Time


Impact

Innovations have a larger impact.

Music


Soundcloud

Spotify

iTunes

CD

Vinyl

Radio

Live

Time

Impact

Humans LOVE music and as technology
allows it, we engage with it the way WE
want to.

TV


YouTube, etc

DVD

Cable

Broadcast

Cinema
Time

Impact

Once simple to describe as “TV” is fragmenting
into thousands of digital channels.

What is a ‘media company’ anyway?
The whole idea of a ‘media
company’ is fragmenting.
Look how big Upworthy
grew in 2 years but how
long will it last?


Insta-company
~$40M

13 months
12x return
to angel
investors


Centurians: Some $100M AsiaPac startups


Big companies are emerging fast
Facebook is only 9
years old and is worth
more than $100B.
It took HP 47 years to
break $1B.


Companies are bigger than ever
Big companies in less
than 10 years
Spreets in 9 months

Wow, look at
the difference
between News
Corp and Apple!


But nothing lasts forever


“I hate Facebook”


“It’s just so boring” Business Insider Ignition 2013 - Teen Panel

Short Fuse Big Bang
Deloitte’s study on
Australia shows
sectors which will
have the biggest
change in the shortest
time.


The Innovator’s Dilemma

Impact

Clayton Christensen
showed us how
disruptive innovation
comes from no-where
to attack incumbents
defending a sustaining
business model.

Time


The Innovator’s Dilemma
As time goes on…
Entropy is faster.
Impact

More companies
explode through
disruptive curve.
And more are failing.
It’s all happening faster
Time


Startup Scene
In Sydney, Australia alone.
Catalyst

Count

Created companies

Accelerators/Incubators

6

60+

Hackathons

20+

200+

We’re making lots and lots of companies and 95% of them don’t
survive to Series A capital raising.


Fertile Conditions
Technological changes,
economic changes, cultural
changes strengthen each
other


Technology: empowering
Components

Reach

Cost

We can build fast.

We can reach lots of
people

We don’t need deep
pockets

So much is
assembling existing
parts. Tools + data

3 billion people online
so far

Free tools,
commoditised
bandwidth, super
networks


Economics: growing and moving

Half the world now online, Asia
becoming the economic centre of
gravity.

Culture: The edge is in charge
It is a p2p web
and consumers
trust each other,
more than
companies.
Companies don’t
have the control
they once had.


Impact

Defending a sustaining innovation is no
longer a survival strategy

Business models are
becoming temporary
and fluid.

Time


How can companies survive thrive?


Impact

1. Manufacture business models

Startup practice can get a bunch of
prototype businesses to the ‘foothills’.

“21st century
corporate survival
requires companies to
continually create a
new set of businesses
by inventing new
business models.”
David Butler - VP Innovation and
Entrepreneurship: Coca-Cola

Time


2. Learn. Fast
There is no time to overthink.
Startup “Moneyball” to
out-learn the competition.
Count customer interviews,
hypotheses tested,
hypotheses failed, mentor
meetings. #learned


3. Foster entrepreneurial people

The vital last 1%
through emotional
labour.


Pollenizer: a startup studio

We’ve learned the hard way through investing our own money into more than 20 startups.

Startup science
Measure

Build

Learn


Startups have created a
management discipline that works
in a big company as well as a garage


A startup is a temporary state, learning
what it is and who it is for
Search

Execute

Startups do this

Companies do this


Webvan failed to learn
● Raised $800 million and flamed
out in 24 months.
● It failed to ask who it’s customer
was and prove it before investing
in growth.
● It failed to learn.


Color failed to learn
●
●
●
●
●

Beautiful, incomplete product
No business model
$41M capital
All over in under 1 year
It failed to learn
How Color
prematurely
scaled


What lean startups do
The true product of an entrepreneur is not the
solution, but a working business model.
The real job of an entrepreneur is to systematically
de-risk that business model over time.
Ash Maurya / Spark59


This is a helpful idea for big companies


Big companies do this...
Requirements
Design

Build

Launch
Maintain


What happens if this bit is wrong?
Requirements
Design

Build

Launch
Maintain


Startups do this...
Product

Measure

Build

Data

Ideas
Learn


We call it ‘validated learning’
Product

“Startups that succeed are those that iterate
Measure
Build
enough times before running out of
resources” Eric Ries
Data

Ideas

Learn

Balancing intuition and
scientific method


The startup lifecycle
1. Discovery
Problem Solution Fit

2. Validation
Product Market Fit

3. Efficiency
Ready to scale

The Marmer Stages

Skip a stage, and the chances are your
startup will fail

Evidence

Over 30,000 startups studied for patterns of success
and failure


The most
common cause of
failure is self
destruction through
premature scaling

No startup that scaled prematurely
reached 100,000 users

Few startup that scaled prematurely
reached $100,000 monthly revenue

Startups that develop consistently
grow 20X faster

This has an impact on valuation

What’s your next move?


Pollenizer for Ateneo De Manila University (10 Dec 2013)

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Pollenizer for Ateneo De Manila University (10 Dec 2013)