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Renewable Energy Innovation - Disruptive Decade Part 1 - Jan 2019

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The first part of the disruptive decade looks at exponential s-curves in technology adoption, and what that has done to the renewable energy and battery markets.

See part two here: https://www.slideshare.net/KeithTimimi/transportation-evs-avs-and-maritime-disruptive-decade-part-2-jan-2019-129340681/

Veröffentlicht in: Wirtschaft & Finanzen

Renewable Energy Innovation - Disruptive Decade Part 1 - Jan 2019

  1. 1. THE DISRUPTIVE DECADE The Coming Transformation of Technology, Energy and Transportation that Will Change Everything Keith Timimi Chief Innovation Officer, VMLY&R Asia
  2. 2. “PEOPLE HAVE NO IDEA HOW FAST THINGS ARE MOVING" Undisclosed Silicon Valley CEO ACCELERATING RATE OF CHANGE
  3. 3. Not that Moore MOORE’S LAW
  4. 4. Gordon Moore, co-Founder Intel, 1965 Moore's law is the observation that the number of transistors in a dense integrated circuit doubles about every two years. MOORE’S LAW
  5. 5. Transistor Count: 2 Gate Process Length: 1/2 inch Speed: Cost Of A Transistor: 2,300 Transistors 10,000 Nanometers 740 KHz (.00074 GHz) ~ $1 (1968) > 7 Billion Transistors 14 Nanometers 4.80 GHz ~ $.00000024 1958: 2 Transitions 1971 Intel 4004 2018 Intel Core i9-8950HK MOORE’S LAW
  6. 6. MOORE’S LAW Source: UC Berkeley, Educational Development Center
  7. 7. MOORE’S LAW Source: Needull.com
  8. 8. By 2045, $1,000 will buy you the brainpower equivalent of all human brains combined
  9. 9. Source: arXiv.org, 2018 GROWTH IN ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE ImageNet training time drops 16x in 18 months
  10. 10. Source: National Human Genome Research Institute, 2016 THE COST OF SEQUENCING THE HUMAN GENOME With your personal genome, we can predict likely medical problems – and prevent them
  11. 11. Source: National Human Genome Research Institute, 2016 THE COST OF SEQUENCING THE HUMAN GENOME With your personal genome, we can predict likely medical problems – and prevent them The $99 genome will be commercially available in 2-4 years. Mirza Cifric CEO, Veritas
  12. 12. 11% - 81% in 10 Years 11% (Tipping Point) 81% OUR NEEDS ARE BEING DEMATERIALISED AND DEMONETISED Across virtually every industry
  13. 13. FIFTH AVENUE, NEW YORK CITY, 1905 Can you find the car?
  14. 14. FIFTH AVENUE, NEW YORK CITY, 1905
  15. 15. FIFTH AVENUE, NEW YORK CITY, 1913 Can you find the horse?
  16. 16. FIFTH AVENUE, NEW YORK CITY, 1913
  17. 17. 11% - 81% in 10 Years Source: Tony Seba, RethinkX. 11% (Tipping Point) 81% CHANGE IN MARKET SHARE By Passenger Miles, US, 1905 - 1930
  18. 18. HORSE & BUGGY FORD MODEL T Source: Tony Seba, RethinkX. PRICE COMPARABILITY BY 1927 $250 Buys You 6x Speed and Range
  19. 19. Traditional Industry Analysts Have Always Underestimated The Accelerating Rate of Change
  20. 20. ANNUAL SOLAR PANEL ADDITIONS - GLOBAL Actual Solar Panel (PV) Annual Added Capacity Source: Auke Hoekstra Analysis, IEA, WEO 2017
  21. 21. ANNUAL SOLAR PANEL ADDITIONS - GLOBAL Actual Solar Panel (PV) Annual Added Capacity vs International Energy Agency (IEA) Annual Forecasts in the World Energy Outlooks, 2002 - 2017 Source: Auke Hoekstra Analysis, IEA, WEO 2017
  22. 22. ANNUAL SOLAR PANEL ADDITIONS - GLOBAL Actual Solar Panel (PV) Annual Added Capacity vs International Energy Agency (IEA) Annual Forecasts in the World Energy Outlooks, 2002 - 2018 Source: Auke Hoekstra Analysis, IEA, WEO 2018
  23. 23. ANNUAL SOLAR PANEL ADDITIONS - GLOBAL Actual Solar Panel (PV) Annual Added Capacity, 2000 - 2018 vs International Energy Agency (IEA) Annual Forecasts in the World Energy Outlooks, 2002 – 2018 vs IHS Markit 2019 Forecast Source: Auke Hoekstra Analysis, IEA, WEO 2018 123 GW Source: IHS Markit, 2019 Market Diversification: Solar PV growing in 45 country markets by >20%
  24. 24. So … When Will Renewables Be Cheaper than Fossil Fuels?
  25. 25. WIND TURBINES
  26. 26. EXPONENTIAL DROP IN WIND POWER COST Source: Ramez Naam, Singularity University
  27. 27. SOLAR PANEL EVOLUTION
  28. 28. AS SOLAR PV COSTS DROP EXPONENTIALLY, INSTALLATIONS RISE EXPONENTIALLY Source: BlackRock, Market Realist INSTALLED PANELS UP 303X SINCE 2000 PANEL PRICES DOWN 303X SINCE 1976
  29. 29. AS SOLAR PV COSTS DROP EXPONENTIALLY, INSTALLATIONS RISE EXPONENTIALLY Source: BlackRock, Market Realist INSTALLED PANELS UP 303X SINCE 2000 PANEL PRICES DOWN 303X SINCE 1976 $0.23 in 2019 Source: Bloomberg NEF, 2018 “We expect a price drop of 10% – 15% by the end of 2019.”
  30. 30. FLOATING SOLAR INSTALLATIONS
  31. 31. GLOBAL INSTALLED FLOATING PV CAPACITY Source: World Bank, SERIS, ESMAP 2018
  32. 32. GLOBAL INSTALLED FLOATING PV CAPACITY Source: World Bank, SERIS, ESMAP 2018 13 GW Of new floating solar PV to be added in next 5 years Source: IHS Markit 2019 Forecast
  33. 33. COST OF A COAL-FIRED POWER PLANT: 6 cents / kWh
  34. 34. COST OF A COAL-FIRED POWER PLANT: 6 cents / kWh Current Wind Record 1.77c / kWh: Cenace Mexico Current Solar Record 1.79c / kWh: Saudi Arabia
  35. 35. Ramez Naam, Singularity University, 2018 WELCOME TO THE TERRORDOME
  36. 36. Ramez Naam, Singularity University, 2018 WELCOME TO THE TERRORDOME
  37. 37. IT IS BECOMING CHEAPER TO BUILD NEW WIND AND SOLAR FARMS THAN IT IS TO RUN EXISTING COAL PLANTS Source: Carbon Tracker, 2017
  38. 38. IT IS BECOMING CHEAPER TO BUILD NEW WIND AND SOLAR FARMS THAN IT IS TO RUN EXISTING COAL PLANTS Source: Carbon Tracker, 2017 Existing Coal Plant Operating Cost Build & Run Wind Operating Cost (LCoE) Build & Run Solar Operating Cost (LCoE) 42% of the World’s 6,685 Coal Plants Run at a Loss 35% of current coal capacity costs more to run than the cost of new renewables Source: Carbon Tracker, 2018
  39. 39. But don’t we need coal for intermittency - when renewables are not producing?
  40. 40. LITHIUM ION BATTERIES
  41. 41. LI-ION BATTERY COSTS DROPPING EXPONENTIALLY Source: Bloomberg NEF, NEO 2014 Learning Rate, Battery vs Solar (2014) Solar – 24.3% Battery – 21.6%
  42. 42. CHINA LEADS GLOBAL BATTERY MANUFACTURING Source: Visual Capitalist, 2017
  43. 43. CHINA LEADS GLOBAL BATTERY MANUFACTURING Source: Visual Capitalist, Quartz, 2019 Tesla breaks ground on $100 Billion facility near Shanghai, Jan 2019
  44. 44. CHINA LEADS GLOBAL BATTERY MANUFACTURING Tesla breaks ground on $100 Billion facility near Shanghai, Jan 2019 Source: Visual Capitalist, Quartz, 2019

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