The document provides an economic and market outlook for April 2012. It notes that recent market performance did not match improving macroeconomic factors. It recommends that now is a good time to invest in equities and long-term debt given fairly priced markets. Cost-effective portfolio design with a low-cost core and specialized satellites is also advised. The global, domestic, and sector-specific economic outlooks suggest recovery is underway in India and developed markets while inflation remains high. The equity outlook is positive given signs of recovery and expectations of continued monetary easing.
2. Contents
Index Page No.
Economic Update 4
Equity Outlook 8
Debt Outlook 12
Forex 14
Commodities 15
Real Estate 16
2
3. From the Desk of the CIOā¦
Dear Investor,
Last few weeks were testimony to a curious phenomenon ā markets approach it is a good time to buy into equities as well as long term
performed badly even as the sentiment about the underlying debt. For the investors actively managing their tactical portfolio shifts,
macroeconomic factors was improving almost without exception. this is a suitable time to move into stock picking and sector selection in
Indian equities as well as debt markets were part of this seemingly equities. That is because the recent run up in equities has lifted most of
absurd occurrence. On closer scrutiny though it is clear that the asset the typical large cap names quite a lot. At the same time, several well
prices merely reverted to a more realistic level ā and the reaction run companies remain relatively undervalued. If the broad sentiment
stemmed largely from disappointment in the extent of economic remains positive, many of these stocks will play catch-up.
recovery than from the direction of it.
Another interesting angle that has emerged in the recent months is the
Apart from academic curiosity though, this experience has a very cost of investing. These have generally been ignored by Indian investors
noteworthy lesson ā financial markets often incorporate an owing to the relatively high returns of most asset classes. However as
exaggerated vision of the future highly prone to the experience of the returns return to less heady levels and promise to hover there for
recent past. In the bad times, this amounts to unmistakable foreseeable future, one needs to start incorporating these costs in
overreaction to even half-expected bad news (say a slightly weaker decision making. Seen in the light of costs, the portfolios of several
than expected purchasing managersā index). In good times, it leads to investors seem sub optimally designed. This is because most of their
hunting for the silver lining even in a sufficiently dark cloud! The primary holdings are relatively blunt in their strategy. The underlying
tendency arises from the conformity bias amongst human being which strategy typically has two components ā a relatively passive core and
makes us look for news in line with our prevailing sentiment ā good or an actively managed remainder. The management fee is however
bad. It seems we resist news opposing our perception of the world till charged on both. The ideal split would be to own a low-cost core and a
such time that the reality is too stark to ignore. At that point, we set of appropriately incentivized satellite portfolios. This can be
incorporate all the pending ignored side of things, often correct our implemented in the equity space through using index ETFs for the core
stance and start looking for the news conforming to this new and fairly focused portfolios (mid-cap only or sector only or a good
sentiment. Through January, as the sentiment changed to positive from theme or even a long dated call option) for the satellites. On the debt
the earlier negative one, investors quickly built a picture of the world front this would involve owing a low-cost long term debt fund coupled
rosier than it had actually become in January. Our commentary in with high yield debt products like real estate NCDs. The total cost of
January had a dose of caution owing to this expectation. Events in owning a 70% low cost core and 30% specialized portfolio is almost
March were reversion to what nearly was the true state of affairs. always lower than the total cost of owning a 100% relatively blunt
portfolio. When one accounts for the superior returns of the core and
Seen in this light, equities and bonds both seem fairly priced about
satellite portfolio, the difference becomes even starker.
now. Hence, for the long term buyers with a passive management 3
āAdvisory services are provided through Karvy Stock Broking Ltd. (PMS) having SEBI Registration No: INP000001512. Investments are subject to market risks. Please read the disclaimer on slide no.19ā
5. Economy Update - Global
ā¢ The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.4 percent in February on a
seasonally adjusted basis. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.9 percent before
US seasonal adjustment
ā¢ The U.S. economy expanded at its fastest rate in a year and a half in the final quarter of 2011, at an
unrevised 3.0%, while corporate profits moderated from the previous quarter.
ā¢ The seasonally adjusted manufacturing PMI fell to three month low at 47.7 for the month of March down
from 49.0 which was recorded in the month of February.
ā¢ Unemployment in the Eurozone rose to 10.8% in February from 10.7% in January. This is the highest level
Europe seen since the currency was introduced in 1999, adding the fears that the region is in recession.
ā¢ Eurozone inflation has remained stubbornly high this month, dropping only slightly to 2.6%, complicating
the European Central Bankās task as the Eurozone economy struggles to return to growth.
ā¢ The seasonally adjusted Markit /JMMA Purchasing Managersā Index (PMI) was at 51.1 in March 2012,
slightly up from 50.5 in February 2012, signalling an improvement in Japanese manufacturing sector
operating conditions.
Japan
ā¢ The unemployment rate in Japan came in at a seasonally adjusted 4.5% in February down from 4.6%
recorded in month of January. The core inflation, which excludes volatile food prices, edged up 0.1% in
February from the same month a year earlier, the first rise in five months.
ā¢ The seasonally adjusted HSBC Purchasing Managersā Indexā¢ (PMIā¢) for India registered 54.7 in March,
down from Februaryās 56.6. The latest reading pointed to a solid improvement in business conditions,
Emerging although growth was below the long-run trend.
economies ā¢ Chinaās HSBC Purchasing Managersā Index registered 48.3 in March, shrinking further from 49.6 in the
month of February signalling a fifth successive month-on-month deterioration in manufacturing operating
conditions.
5
6. Economy Outlook - Domestic
10.0% IIP ā¢ The double-digit expansion of consumer non-durables for
8.0% the second month in a row (14.4% in November 2011 and
6.0% 13.4% in December 2011) suggests some revival in consumer
4.0%
spending on non-durable items, following a moderation in
2.0%
0.0%
food inflation.
-2.0%
-4.0%
-6.0% ā¢ Gross domestic product in India - Asia's third-largest
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan economy - grew at an annual 6.1% in the third quarter. It is a
11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 12 significant slowdown from 6.9% in the previous quarter and
marks the fourth straight quarter of growth below 8%.
ā¢ Index of Industrial Production grew by 6.8% year-on-year in
January 2012. In December 2011, the Index grew by just ā¢ The sluggish growth can be attributed to poor performance
1.8% year-on-year due to contraction in mining and capital of the manufacturing, mining and farm sectors. The
goods sectors and a lower manufacturing sector growth. slowdown in the manufacturing sector, coupled with decline
Industrial output in January grew at its fastest pace in 7 in mining and quarrying, is likely to put pressure on the
months, powered by a surge in manufacturing, including Reserve Bank of India to cut interest rate at its monetary
consumer non-durables, a sign of strength in a sluggish policy review in April 2012.
economy that reinforces expectations the central bank will
wait until April before cutting interest rates. GDP growth
ā¢ Capital goods recorded a negative growth of 1.5%, its fifth 9.0 8.6
8.1
8.4 8.3
consecutive month of contraction, while consumer goods 7.8 7.7
8.0
grew at a rapid 20.2%. In fact, consumer goods were 6.9
7.0
6.1
dragged by negative growth in consumer durables of 6.8% 6.0
over the corresponding period last year.
5.0
ā¢ The decline in both capital goods and consumer durables, 4.0
however, reveal critical chinks in the growth story. FY10(Q4) FY11(Q1) FY11(Q2) FY11(Q3) FY11(Q4) FY12(Q1) FY12(Q2) FY12(Q3)
6
7. Economic Outlook - Domestic
Growth in credit & deposits of SCBs ļ§ The WPI based inflation, which has remained in
25.0% Bank Credit Aggregate Deposits double digits for almost two years, rose to 6.95% in
February because of sharp increase in food prices. It
20.0% was 6.55% in January 2012 & 9.54% in February last
year.
15.0%
ļ§ Prices of manufactured items, which have a weight of
10.0% around 65% in the WPI basket, went up by 5.75% year-
on-year in February, as against 6.49% in the previous
5.0% month. Notably, the WPI for the month of December
has been revised upwards to 7.74% from 7.47%.
ļ§ The Consumer Price Index, which was introduced
keeping in mind that demand-side pricing would be a
ļ§ As on 24th February there was a negative growth in bank
better indicator of inflation accelerated to 8.83% in
credit by 82 bps i.e. 15.7% on a y-o-y basis. The aggregate
February from 7.65% in January, adding yet another
deposits grew by 14.4% on a y-o-y basis witnessing a element of uncertainty to prospects of the Reserve
decline of 136 bps as compared to last month. Bank of India (RBI) cutting interest rates starting in
April.
ļ§ RBI has cut the cash reserve ratio by 75 bps to 4.75% with
effect from the fortnight starting March 10, 2012. This 10.0%
9.5%
action is expected to increase the system liquidity by Rs. 9.0%
48,000 cr. 8.5%
8.0%
7.5%
ļ§ We expect a rate cut in April 2012 leading to credit off-take 7.0%
6.5% Wholesale Price Index
provided RBI decides to choose Growth over Inflation 6.0%
worries.
* End of period figures 7
8. Equity Outlook
After a very difficult FY12, we expect FY13 to be a good year for equities with India emerging as a big outperformer. Growth in India
seems to have bottomed out in Quarter 3 of last fiscal. All manufacturing, car sales and IIP numbers point to a revival in domestic
demand. FIIs have given a vote of confidence to the Indian economy by pumping in nine billion dollars in Indian equity markets so far
this calendar year.
Indiaās PMI manufacturing data Increased rate of
growth
60
58 57.5 57.5
58 56.6
55.3
56 54.7
54.2
53.6
54 52.6
52
52 51
50.4
50
48 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12
46
Increased rate of
44 contraction
Source: Markit, HSBC
RBI has started the reversal of the tight monetary policy with a 125 bps cut in cash reserve ratio (CRR) so far this calendar year. We
would expect a Repo rate cut in the April policy. We expect a cumulative repo rate cut of 100 bps for this fiscal year. The biggest
beneficiaries of the reversal in policy would be interest rate sensitive sectors like banks, autos and capital goods.
8
9. Equity Outlook
Monetary policy remaining extremely easy in developed part of the world and developing markets like China & India have started the
monetary easing cycle. European debt markets have calmed down due to massive liquidity injection (LTRO 1) done by European central
bank. This easy liquidity will result in risk asset prices remaining high across the world.
Union budget which was tabled on 16th March came in on expected lines. The fiscal deficit number has been pencilled at 5.1% for FY13.
The provisions for fuel and fertilizer subsidies look inadequate and the fiscal deficit number would be closer to 5.5% in absence of
meaningful hikes in auto fuel prices. The government borrowing programme at Rs. 4.79 lakh crores is quite high and would result in
further hardening of bond yields.
Governmentās focus clearly has been to shore up the revenue side with increase in Indirect tax rates. We were expecting a slight
increase in Service tax and excise duty which happened in line with our expectations with the rate changing from 10% to 12%. The
sectors which will take the hit include Automobiles, FMCG, Tourism and Cement. The government has expanded the service tax
coverage by having an ānegative Listā for service tax with all but 17 services becoming applicable for service tax. No timelines have been
given for implementation of Direct tax code and Goods and services tax (GST).
As far as the market is concerned, budget is a non-event. The market will start focusing on Q4 FY12 earnings which start from 10thApril
and RBI policy in the third week of April.
We believe that going forward GDP growth will bounce back to 7-7.5% with monetary easing resulting in a boost to infrastructure and
manufacturing activity. We expect that inflation would come down this year and could average around 7% leading to nominal growth of
14-15%. That would lead to corporate earnings growth of 15%. We expect Sensex earnings of INR 1300 for FY13 and around INR 1500
for FY14. We arrive at a year end Sensex target of 22,500 based on 15 times FY14 earnings which would give an upside of 30% from
current levels. 9
10. Sector View
Sector Stance Remarks
The USD 1 trillion Infra opportunity is hard to ignore. However, The significant slowdown in order inflow
E&C Overweight activity combined with high interest rates has hurt the sector. Now since the interest rate cycle has
started to reverse, we have turned more constructive on this space.
Financial sector is undeniably the lubricant for economic growth. Whether the growth comes from
consumption or investments, credit growth is inevitable. Being a well regulated sector, BFSI in India has
BFSI Overweight
good asset quality and capital adequacy ratios. The reversal of the interest rate cycle will assist in
managing asset quality better and would lead to increase in credit growth
We believe in the large sized opportunity presented by Pharma sector in India. Indiaās strength in
generics is difficult to replicate due to quality and quantity of available skilled manpower. With the
Healthcare Neutral developed world keen to cut healthcare costs, and a vast pipeline of drugs going off-patent, Indian
pharma players are at the cusp of rapid growth. We would bet on the opportunity in Generics and
CRAMS space
We prefer ādiscretionary consumptionā beneficiaries such as Cigarettes and branded garments, as the
FMCG Neutral
growth in this segment will be disproportionately higher vis-Ć -vis the increase in disposable incomes.
The regulatory hurdles, competitive pressures and leverage prevent any return to high profitability levels
Telecom Neutral in the short to medium term. However, incumbents have started to increase tariffs slowly and we
believe that consolidation will happen sooner than expected. 10
11. Sector View
Sector Stance Remarks
While US and European customers of Indian IT companies are in good health, Order inflows might slow
IT/ITES Neutral down in near term. However, in the next few quarters big rupee depreciation will provide cushion to IT
companies earnings .
Demand outlook remains robust with strong earnings growth. Raw material prices have started coming
Automobiles Neutral down which would boost margins. We are more bullish on two-wheeler and agricultural vehicles
segment due to lesser competition and higher pricing power.
Commodity prices have corrected significantly over the last few months due to concerns about growth
Metals Neutral in developed parts of the world. We believe the commodity prices will bounce back once growth
recovers and hence would be positive on industrial metals space.
Cement demand will certainly grow over the next three years. With pricing power returning, e are
Cement Neutral
becoming constructive on this space.
We like the regulated return characteristics of this space. This space provides steady growth in
Power Utilities Neutral
earnings and decent return on capital.
We would stay away from oil PSUs, due to issues of cross subsidization distorting the underlying
Energy Underweight
economics of oil exploration and refinery businesses.
11
12. Debt Outlook
9.50
8.9
Yield curve 10-yr G-sec yield
8.8 9.00
8.7
8.50
8.6
(%)
(%)
8.00
8.5
8.4 7.50
8.3
7.00
8.2
0.0
0.7
1.5
2.2
2.9
3.7
4.4
5.1
5.8
6.6
7.3
8.0
8.8
9.5
10.2
11.0
11.7
12.4
13.1
13.9
14.6
15.3
16.1
16.8
17.5
18.2
19.0
19.7
Tenure
ā¢ The 10 year benchmark GāSec yield increased by 37 bps in March to close at 8.57%.
ā¢ The yields on 10-year government bonds have been steadily going up after the government announced the borrowing calendar
for the first half of FY13 of 3.7 lakh crore (65% of the total borrowing), almost 46% higher than it borrowed in the first half of
last year.
ā¢ The yields on 10-year benchmark government bonds rose 33 bps from 8.42% since the budget was announced to 8.74% on 3rd
April 2012 against the previous close of 8.61%.
ā¢ The spread a AAA rated corporate bond offers has increased by 29 bps to 91 bps giving an yield of 9.48% as on 30th March 2012.
12
13. Debt Strategy
Category Outlook Details
With the pause by RBI and the expected trend reversal of the
interest rates, we would recommend a core and satellite allocation
Short Tenure to long term and short term debt respectively. Due to liquidity
Debt pressures increasing in the market as RBI has a huge borrowing
plan, short term yields would remain higher. Short Term funds still
have high YTMs (9.5% ā 10%) providing interesting investment
opportunities.
Some AA and select A rated securities are very attractive at the
Credit current yields. A similar trend can be seen in the Fixed Deposits
also. Tight liquidity in the system has also contributed to widening
of the spreads making entry at current levels attractive.
With the expected trend reversal in the interest rates, we would
strongly recommend investment in Longer term papers. These, while
Long Tenure being available at attractive yields, also provide an opportunity for
Capital appreciation due to a decrease in interest rates. Hence, these
Debt
would be suitable for both - investors who may want to stay invested
for the medium term (exiting when prices appreciate) and those who
would want to lock in high yields for the longer term.
13
14. Forex
Rupee movement vis-Ć -vis other currencies (M-o-M) Trade balance and export-import data
100 Export Import Trade Balance (mn $) 0
80 -5000
USD GBP EURO YEN 60
-10000
0.00% 40
-15000
20
0 -20000
-1.00% -20 -25000
-2.00%
-3.00%
-2.82% ā¢ Indiaās exports grew 4.3% to $24.62 billion in February
-4.00% 2012, compared to $23.61 billion in the same year-ago
-3.91% -4.05%
-5.00% -4.34% month, while imports were up 20.65% at $39.78 billion
translating into a trade deficit of $15.16 billion.
ā¢ INR depreciated by 3.9%, in March against the US Dollar. But, 140000
Capital Account Balance
since the beginning of the calendar year it has appreciated by
90000
4.2%
40000
ā¢ However, surging crude oil prices and their cascading impact
on inflation and growth in India, which imports about 80 per -10000
FY 10 (Q2) FY 10 (Q3) FY 10 (Q4) FY 11 (Q1) FY 11 (Q2) FY 11 (Q3) FY 11 (Q4) FY 12 (Q1)
cent of its oil requirements, is expected to limit the rise in
the rupee. ā¢ The projected capital account balance for Q2 FY 12 is at Rs.
84,400 Cr. while the Q1 figure was revised upwards to
ā¢ Rupee depreciated against Euro by 4.05% as the Rs.1,02,100 Crores.
governments are preparing to increase rescue funds against ā¢ We expect factors such as higher interest rates to attract
future financial turmoil. more investments to India. Increased limits for investment
by FIIs would also help in bringing in more funds though
uncertainty in the global markets could prove to be a
dampener.
14
15. Commodities
We continue to maintain our non positive to neutral view on the 31000
yellow metal. Gold prices continued to tumbled following the U.S.
Federal Reserve released minutes from its last policy meeting which 29000 Gold
showed policymakers were less likely to push for more monetary 27000
easing as the economic outlook gradually improves. The increase in
Precious the tariff value and the import duty on India would further alleviate 25000
the pain for the bulls as the demand in India ā the worldās largest 23000
Metals consumer of gold might reduce their imports by 59%. As a quasi
currency, gold in dollar denomination is more prone to the 21000
downward pressure given the recent strength in the dollar index. 19000
Nevertheless, the weakness in the rupee amid an increase in the
duty makes landed cost of gold costlier in India; and we may not see
a drastic fall in prices in the domestic currency.
The perception of shortage following the Iran issue keeps the lid on
140.0
the oil prices boiling. On the flip side, both US and UK has been Crude
135.0
active in releasing the strategic reverse to counter the Iran supply 130.0
shortage. Further, the US stockpiles surged the most since 2008 as 125.0
Oil & Gas domestic crude output climbed to the highest level in 12 years. This 120.0
may lead to WTI testing $100 a barrel mark shortly. Oil too came 115.0
under pressure following the U.S. Federal Reserve released minutes 110.0
from its last policy meeting which showed policymakers were less 105.0
likely to push for more monetary easing as the economic outlook 100.0
gradually improves. However, the backwardation in the oil prices 95.0
clearly implies a supply pressure at the short end as compared to the 90.0
longer tenor and the Iran issues will continue to hover for the days
to come.
16. Real Estate Outlook - I
Asset Classes Tier-1* Tier-II**
The FY12 year ended with expectations of price correction, Not much change in prices has been witnessed. Investors
however nothing being actually witnessed. All prime pockets in demand in these sectors increased since prices continue
Mumbai, Pune, Gurgaon and Bangalore have recorded increase in to be affordable. Also infrastructure development in Tier
sales numbers by 8% - 9% in the last quarter of FY12 compared to II cities in last 2-3 years has led to massive real estate
FY11, majorly due to new project launches. Markets like developments with high-rise buildings taking the glam
Hyderabad, Chennai, Pune and Bangalore remained stagnant to quotient high with the new generation or emergence of
an extent due to bigger projects being launched by all major local nuclear families in last decade. With the new Finance Bill
developers. Mumbai is majorly affected by the building plans not approving of ECB in Affordable Housing sector, a positive
Residential being sanctioned from almost over a year. The new Development change is expected in demand since it targets houses in
Control Rules (DCR) has only indicated a rise in price. Precisely the range of 15-20 lakhs.
due the same reasons, Thane has gained enormously on the
appreciation and investment front last year. Gurgon expansion in
sectors like 114, 90 and 65 all far ends, has taken the price of
prime sectors higher by 10% - 12%. The UP elections kept Noida
unattractive for almost three quarters in FY12.
Though lease transactions have risen by 30% as compared to last High streets have seen appreciation, traditional
year, the capital values have taken a major hit due to the rent commercial locations still preferred and are intact on
being compressed. Supply remains a concern and is expected to values. Cities like Lucknow, Indore, Jaipur, Ahmedabad,
Commercial/IT even out in 2014 - 15 only. IT/ITES and Services consuming over Surat, Vishakhapatnam, Chandigarh, and Madurai are
70% of real estate in India is now seen governing the market thriving on better consumer aspirations.
dynamics. Average rentals other than Mumbai for warm shell
remains still under Rs. 40 per sqft.
16
17. Real Estate Outlook - II
Asset Classes Tier-1* Tier-II**
Other than Indiaās top 10-15 malls, most of the other Nothing to beat local traditional markets. Malls are many
existing malls have vacancy of minimum 30% and lately and footfalls keep reducing year on year putting heavy
these seem to have changed plans to suit commercial conversion pressure on retailers to keep innovating lease
demand. Traditional investors exposure to the segment as well as product to achieve break-even. Many brands
Retail
came down drastically making exit of developers have increased their presence in Hi-streets than malls.
difficult. The revenue share model with retailers
remains a concern to all mall developers.
Very attractive, still has scope of high appreciation. Still available cheaper, plotted development is a hit since
Indiaās infrastructure story will only keep demand high the trend of standalone homes are prevalent.
Land and the Real Estate Investors (small and big) are
exploring the unexplored.
Please Note:
1.Tier I* markets include Mumbai, Delhi & NCR, Bangalore, Pune, Chennai, Hyderabad and Kolkata
2.Tier II* markets includes all state capitals other than the Tier I markets
3.The IC note is proposed to be presented every quarter
17
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Open Architecture ā Widest array of products
We are an open-architecture firm at two levels ā asset class level and product level :
ā¢ Offering COMPREHENSIVE choice of investing across all asset classes
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Intensive Research
We closely track the historical performance across asset classes, sub-asset classes and product providers to identify, evaluate and
recommend investment products (KPWās or third-party). We have our own proprietary methodology for evaluating products; for
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Honest, unbiased advise
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The information and views presented here are prepared by Karvy Private Wealth(a division of Karvy Stock Broking Limited) or other Karvy Group
companies. The information contained herein is based on our analysis and upon sources that we consider reliable. We, however, do not vouch for the
accuracy or the completeness thereof. This material is for personal information and we are not responsible for any loss incurred based upon it.
The investments discussed or recommended here may not be suitable for all investors. Investors must make their own investment decisions based on
their specific investment objectives and financial position and using such independent advice, as they believe necessary. While acting upon any
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