1. 1
Real-Time Monitoring
and
Integrated Forecasting
of
Arctic Ice Floes
P. AnnoK. Soofi
C. Yetsko D. Glover
J. Santosuosso B. Cobb

2. 2
above the Arctic Circle
• ~ 25% of world’s
undiscovered reserves
• no production to date
in ice congested waters

3. 3
Limited Infrastructure
 emergency evacuation
 search & rescue
 firefighting
 towing
 salvage operations
 costly mobilization
Dangerous Working Conditions
 low temperatures
 icing on equipment
 darkness
 moving ice on ocean surface
the Arctic Challenge

4. 4
iceberg

5. 5
ice location,
speed,
geometry
Russia
United States
Canada
satellite-based Tracking

6. 6
ice-hardened mobile drilling concepts

7. 7
ice floe Tracking & Forecasting
move the rig

8. 8
ice floe Tracking & Forecasting
stay put

9. 9
Arctic Cost Drivers & Projected Savings
extended drilling season
 1 well
 ↕ $300 MM savings ↕
 2 wells
production platform construction
 mechanical design (max ice load)
 ↕ $1,000 MM savings ↕
 ice management operations

10. 10
satellite
imagery
sonar
radar
video
currents
temps
wind
structural
load cell
data
Continuous Ingestion Continuous Analytics
Stream Computing for ice floe tracking

11. 11
ice movie 1 – Tracking & Forecasting
km

12. 12
Project Objective
 Prototype automatic & continual tracking/forecasting of all individual ice
floes
Real-Time Analysis & Modeling
 Ice detection / classification from SAR
 Ice floe tracking from SAR
 Ice floe trajectory forecasting
 Trajectory uncertainty quantification
Deliverable
 Real-time visualization of ice floe positions, tracks, & trajectory cone
forecasts
ice floe Tracking & Forecasting

13. 14
ice floe Detection
km

14. 15
ice floe Model
km

15. 18
Forecasting Equations
 
 
2 2
2
conservation of linear momentum
( ) is velocity of the ice floe.
is m
ˆ+
wh
ass of the ice floe,
is area of the ice floe,
ere
is force o i
.
f ce
add i w w w a a a
w
i
w w
d
m m C A C
unkno
A mf
d
n
t
w
m
A
     
 
v
F V V k v
V v v v v
v
F pack acting on floe,
, are velocities of the water & air currents.w av v

16. 19
metocean Data Stream
0900 09 March 2011

17. 22
ice floe forecasting – Data Constraints
km

18. 23
ice floe forecasting – Data Constraints & Solutions
km

19. 24
Project Objective
 Prototype automatic & continual tracking/forecasting of all individual ice
floes
Real-Time Analysis & Modeling
 Ice detection / classification from SAR
 Ice floe tracking from SAR
 Ice floe trajectory forecasting
 Trajectory uncertainty quantification
Deliverable
 Real-time visualization of ice floe positions, tracks, & trajectory cone
forecasts
ice floe Tracking & Forecasting

20. 25
ice movie 2 – Forecast Uncertainty Cones
km

21. 26
a BiG Data problem
 volume, variety, velocity
favors the Stream Computing paradigm
 real-time decision support
 natural, continuous data integration
 effective high-end analytics
computationally feasible
 shifts burden to engineering of data acquisition systems
near-real-time ice floe Tracking & Forecasting

22. 27
Real-Time Monitoring
and
Integrated Forecasting
of
Arctic Ice Floes
P. AnnoK. Soofi
C. Yetsko D. Glover
J. Santosuosso B. Cobb