SlideShare a Scribd company logo
1 of 6
Download to read offline
Capital Markets Research
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Feb 1, 2011
Thai Stock Market                                Jan 31            Change          US Market                                 Jan 31            Change
SET Index                                          964.1              -17.73       Dow Jones                              11,891.93                 +68.23
Market Turnover (Bt mn)                      21,292.24            -6,003.88        Nasdaq                                  2,700.08                 +13.19
Foreign Net Position (Bt mn)                   -883.64              -156.50        S&P 500                                 1,286.12                   +9.78
Thai Bond Market                                 Jan 31            Change          US 10 yr T-note (%)                          3.38                  +5 bp
Total Return Index                               200.50                +0.11       US 2yr T-note (%)                            0.57                  +2 bp
Total Market Turnover (Bt mn)                                                      NYMEX crude ($/b)                          92.19                   +2.85
Change (bp)               1m        3m        6m          1yr            2yr         3yr       5yr         7yr       10yr       12yr       14yr        18yr
Jan 31 (%)               2.05      2.11      2.27        2.54           2.96        3.21      3.40        3.63       3.85       4.05        4.15       4.22
Change (bp)                 -1        0          -2          0            -1          -1         -3         -1          0           1          1         -1
Interbank Rates           Feb 01       Jan 28              BIBOR               1w          1m           2m         3m        6m          9m          1yr
Overnight (%)               2.25    2.050-2.210             Jan 31          2.26250      2.28766 2.34750 2.40000 2.50000 2.57125 2.67219
Repurchase Rates           1-day          7-day             14-day               1m             SIBOR           1m               3m               6m
Jan 31                    2.25000        2.25000                -                 -             Jan 31        0.27060         0.30900           0.46550
THBFIX (Ref.)        1m          2m        3m          6m            9m          1yr            LIBOR           1m               3m               6m
Jan 31             0.49345     0.62723 0.93188 1.42530 1.69804                 1.92612          Jan 31        0.26000         0.30438           0.45381
SWAP (THB/THB,Onshore)                   1yr               2yr                3yr              4yr              5yr              7yr              10yr
Feb 01        Bid/Ask                 1.86/1.90        2.57/2.61           3.07/3.11       3.40/3.44         3.64/3.68       3.95/3.99         4.21/4.25
KBank Counter Rates                                 Buying                                  Selling                   Premium/Discount (stgs/m)
(against THB)                         Sight Bill                  T/T                          T/T                              Export/Import
USD                                     30.64                   30.74                        30.99                                 -0.30/1.80
EUR                                    41.9638                 42.1013                      42.6300                                -4.26/0.30
GBP                                    49.1075                 49.2675                      49.8563                                -2.18/1.16
JPY                                    0.3716                  0.3729                        0.3798                                -1.42/3.41
KBank Technical Analysis                    Feb 01             Jan 31            Support        Resistance          Trend                Strategy
THB (Onshore)                                30.84              30.87              30.80            30.95          Sideway       Sell USD near resistance
JPY                                          81.99              82.07              81.80            82.60          Sideway        Buy USD near support
EUR/USD                                     1.3719             1.3685             1.3660           1.3760          Sideway        Buy EUR near support



                                                                                      Macro and Market Outlook
                   •    Crude oil price rose on the back of concerns about Egypt’s unrest and possible disruption of
                        major transportation route
                   •    U.S. data continued to show positive signs, with personal spending up by 0.7% mom after a
                        0.3% climb in November but core inflation as measured from real spending fell to a record low
                   •    Thai domestic economy continued to see signs of a slower pace of expansion while trade and
                        current accounts balances remained in surplus


                                                                                                      FX Market Wrap
                    •   EUR/USD rebounded to 1.369 as an early-estimate of inflation rate in the eurozone was at 2.4%
                        in January, higher than the previous month’s 2.2% and the market’s forecast of 2.3%
                    •   USD/THB lowered to a close of 30.90 but, intraday, the pair rose to as high as 31.15. Baht later
                        recovered some gains as U.S. economic data showed positive signs


                                                                                          Economic News Update
                   •    Obama lost the second of four court challenges to his health-care law as a federal judge in
                        Florida ruled that the measure went beyond the power of Congress to regulate commerce
                   •    China’s manufacturing growth slowed for a second month after the central bank raised interest
                        rates and lenders’ reserve requirements to counter inflation and asset-bubble risks


                    Now you can listen to today’s exchange rate trend (press 711) and our summary of exchange rate movements (press 721)
                   via K-BIZ Contact Center 0 2888 8822, available 24 Hours


                                www.twitter.com/KBankFX                                     www.facebook.com/KBankFX

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     1
For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was
obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein.
Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
KBank Daily Update                              Feb 1, 2011

                                                                                                                                 accounts balance remained in surplus, which should
                   Macro and Market Outlook                                                                                      prevent any large rebound in the USD/THB.
     $/barrel                                                                                                                      US$, mn                     Current account (Trade balance + Services) and BOP
       100                                                                                                                           6000
         95                                                                                                                          5000
                                                                                                                                     4000
         90
                                                                                                                                     3000
         85
                                                                                                                                     2000
         80
                                                                                                                                     1000
         75                                                                                                                              0
         70                                                                                                                         -1000
         65                                                                                                                         -2000
          Jun-10      Jul-10     Aug-10       Sep-10    Oct-10       Nov-10        Dec-10    Jan-11                                          Jan-09   Apr-09      Jul-09       Oct-09    Jan-10     Apr-10      Jul-10      Oct-10
                   Arabian Gulf Dubai Fateh                  WTI oil price (RHS)             Dated Brent                                              Trade balance             Services and transfers          Balance of Payments

    Crude oil price rose higher yesterday on the back of
    concerns of social unrests in Egypt which threatens the
    important transportation route – the Suez canal. Global                                                                                  US Treasuries and Thai rates
    stocks ended little changed on Monday as investors weigh
    positive economic data releases with the geopolitical
    uncertainties.                                                                                                               Treasuries held a loss from yesterday as Asian stocks
                                                                                                                                 advanced before an industry report that economists said
     % yoy
      8
                                                                                                                                 will show manufacturing in the U.S. grew in January for an
                                                                                                                                 18th month.
        6

        4                                                                                                                        The difference between two- and 30-year yields was near
                                                                                                                                 the widest ever as investors demanded compensation on
        2
                                                                                                                                 their long- maturity holdings for the prospect of rising
        0                                                                                                                        inflation. The spread was 4.01 percentage points, versus
       -2                                                                                                                        the record of 4.04 percentage points set Jan. 28.
       -4
                                                                                                                                 Benchmark 10-year notes yielded 3.38 percent as of 10:13
            2007                  2008                       2009                    2010
                                                                                                                                 a.m. in Tokyo, according to BGCantor Market Data.
                           Personal income % yoy                         Personal spending % yoy
                                                                                                                                 (Source: Bloomberg)
                                                                                                                                  S&P Index                                                                                              (bp)
    U.S. data update – consumer spending rose more than
                                                                                                                                  1350                                                                                                    300
    estimated in December (0.7%mom vs. 0.3% in November)
                                                                                                                                  1300                                                                                                   280
    while personal income rose 0.1% mom (0.2% in
                                                                                                                                  1250
    November). Meanwhile, the ISM business confidence                                                                                                                                                                                    260
                                                                                                                                  1200
    indicator rose to 68.8, its highest level since 1988. More                                                                                                                                                                           240
                                                                                                                                  1150
    signs are indicating a gradual improvement in the U.S.                                                                                                                                                                               220
                                                                                                                                  1100
    economy but core inflation, as measured from the personal
                                                                                                                                  1050                                                                                                   200
    consumption basket, rose by only 0.7% yoy (flat month-on-
                                                                                                                                  1000                                                                                                    180
    month), the lowest pace since the record began in 1960.
                                                                                                                                     Aug-10           Sep-10          Oct-10        Nov-10          Dec-10         Jan-11            Feb-11
     % YoY                                                                                                 % YoY
       12                                                                                                     24                                                  S&P Index                  2-10 Spread (bps, RHS)
       10                                                                                                     19
        8                                                                                                     14
        6
                                                                                                                                 Thai interest rate: Bond and IRS yields decline slight
                                                                                                              9
        4
                                                                                                              4
                                                                                                                                 yesterday (1-3bp lower), still capped on gains by the USD
        2                                                                                                                        liquidity shortage in the FX swap market. However, yields
                                                                                                              -1
        0
       -2                                                                                                     -6                 remained higher than that of the previous week’s, reflecting
       -4                                                                                                     -11                market’s continued pricing in of further policy rate hike by
       -6                                                                                                     -16                the BoT. We expect that the FX wap market would return to
       -8                                                                                                     -21                normalcy if the market is convinced, somewhere in the
          05               06              07                08            09               10
                                                                                                                                 future, that trouble in Egypt would not spread or have a
                    Private Consumtption Index (left axis)            Private Investment Index(right axis)
                                                                                                                                 wide scale effect.

    Thai economic data update – domestic economy
    continued to see signs of a slower pace of expansion,                                                                           bp                                Government bond yield change                                       %
    especially for the private consumption and investment                                                                           12                                                                                                   5.0
    indicators. Nevertheless, tourism sector still looked bright                                                                    10                                                                                                   4.5
    while farm income index continued to show growth.
                                                                                                                                     8                                                                                                   4.0

    External trade sector still looks rather positive but some                                                                       6                                                                                                   3.5
    signs of slowdown cannot be avoided as the global                                                                                4                                                                                                   3.0
    economy sees a moderation in growth and the Thai baht                                                                            2                                                                                                   2.5
    was among the 3 top gainers in Asia against the USD.
                                                                                                                                     0                                                                               2.0
    Exports grew by 18.6% in December while imports rose by
                                                                                                                                          0.3 0.5 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 15.0 16.0 20.0 yrs
    8.8%, both showing signs of deceleration from previous
                                                                                                                                                         Spread (left axis)              1-Feb-11                25-Jan-11
    month’s high growth rates. Trade balance and current



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               2
    For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was
    obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein.
    Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
KBank Daily Update                            Feb 1, 2011

                                             FX Wrap                                                                                                                    Currency Movement
                                                                                                                                                                 Mon 31-Jan-11                Fri 28-Jan-11                 % Change
       1.42
       1.40                                                                                                                              USD/THB                       30.90                      31.03                        -0.42
       1.38                                                                                                                              USD/JPY                       82.07                      82.10                        -0.04
       1.36                                                                                                                             EUR/USD                        1.369                      1.361                       +0.57
       1.34
                                                                                                                                        GBP/USD                       1.6015                     1.5860                       +0.98
       1.32
       1.30                                                                                                                              USD/CHF                      0.9438                     0.9416                       +0.23
       1.28                                                                                                                             USD/SGD                       1.2791                     1.2846                        -0.43
       1.26                                                                                                                             USD/TWD                        29.03                      29.05                        -0.07
          Aug-10          Sep-10          Oct-10         Nov-10         Dec-10          Jan-11         Feb-11
                                                                                                                                        USD/KRW                      1,119.3                     1,115.6                      +0.33
                                                           EUR/USD
                                                                                                                                         USD/PHP                       44.22                      44.08                       +0.32
    EUR/USD rebounded to 1.369 as an early-estimate of                                                                                   USD/IDR                       9,043                      9,023                       +0.22
    inflation rate in the eurozone was at 2.4% in January,                                                                              USD/MYR                        3.060                      3.054                       +0.20
    higher than the previous month’s 2.2% and the market’s
    forecast of 2.3%. This marks the second month that                                                                                  USD/CNY                        6.602                      6.582                       +0.30
                                                                                                                                   Source: Reuters
    inflation rate had exceeded the ECB’s policy target of
                                                                                                                                                                     .FX Consensus Forecast
    2.0%. The market is speculating that Europe’s interest rate
    may have to rise much earlier than previous thought,                                                                                                                Spot                          Jun 2011                Dec 2011
    supporting the euro vs the greenback as the Fed is
    expected to keep policy rate unchanged till year-end.                                                                               USD/THB                        30.90                            28.30                   28.00
                                                                                                                                        USD/JPY                        82.05                            86.00                   89.00

       38.00                                                                                               80                           EUR/USD                         1.37                             1.30                    1.31

       37.50
                                                                                                                                        GBP/USD                         1.61                             1.55                    1.60
                                                                                                           82
       37.00                                                                                                                            USD/CNY                         6.60                             6.45                    6.30
       36.50                                                                                               84                           USD/SGD                         1.28                             1.27                    1.23

       36.00                                                                                                                             USD/IDR                       9,039                            8,900                   8,800
                                                                                                           86
       35.50                                                                                                                            USD/MYR                         3.06                             3.02                    2.96

       35.00                                                                                              88                            USD/PHP                        44.21                            42.60                   41.50
            1-Nov                         1-Dec                         1-Jan                        1-Feb                              USD/KRW                        1,117                            1,090                   1,050
                                 JPY/THB (LHS)                   USD/JPY (RHS, inverted axis)                                           USD/TWD                        29.03                            28.80                   28.60
                                                                                                                                        AUD/USD                         1.00                             0.99                    0.97
    USD/JPY closed at 82.07, still in range trade and likely to
    remain supported in the near-term amid the uncertainties in                                                                         NZD/USD                         0.77                             0.77                    0.76
    the global markets.                                                                                                            Source: Bloomberg, KBank for USD/THB

       31.30
                                                                                                                                                                       Currency Pair Targets
       31.10                                                                                                                                                                   Spot                  Jun 2011                 Dec 2011
       30.90
                                                                                                                                             USD/THB                           31.18                   28.30                     28.0
       30.70
       30.50                                                                                                                                 EUR/THB                           42.38                    40.0                     37.0
       30.30
       30.10
                                                                                                                                             JPY/THB                           37.90                   34.70                     29.5
       29.90                                                                                                                                 GBP/THB                           49.35                   47.40                     43.7
       29.70
       29.50
                                                                                                                                             CNY/THB                           4.73                     4.78                      4.2
            1-Nov          16-Nov         1-Dec         16-Dec         31-Dec         15-Jan        30-Jan                                   AUD/THB                           30.89                    27.4                     26.0
                                                           USD/THB                                                                           CHF/THB                           33.11                    29.6                     27.7
                                                                                                                                   Source: KBank, Bloomberg
    USD/THB lowered to a close of 30.90, similar to
    Thursday’s level. Intraday, the pair rose to as high as 31.15                                                                KBank NEER Index
    but the baht later recovered some gains as U.S. economic
                                                                                                                                 Current                                                                         97.99
    data showed positive signs, and baht followed the euro and
    other risky assets stronger.                                                                                                 YTD                                                                           + 5.23%
                                                                                                                                 vs 52 weeks ago                                                               + 4.16%
    China fixed its reference rate at a record high again today,                                                                 vs 1mth ago                                                                   - 2.51%
    reaffirming its move towards letting the yuan appreciate
                                                                                                                                 vs 1 week ago                                                                 + 0.37%
    against the greenback. The reference rate is at 6.6860
    today vs. 6.5891 on Monday.                                                                                                  vs 1 day ago                                                                  + 0.00%
                                                                                                                                 vs long term average                                                         + 10.17%
                                                                                                                                 Note: NEER is constructed from the weighted average of bilateral exchange
                                                                                                                                 rates of the baht via Thailand’s 21 major trading partners and trade
                                                                                                                                 competitors. An increase in NEER refers to an appreciation




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         3
    For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was
    obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein.
    Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
KBank Daily Update                            Feb 1, 2011

         Total Return Analysis – 3 month horizon, annualized                                                                                                           Auction results of BoT Bonds                                                                                       Jan 28
    Yield shift (bps)         -40       -30            -20          -10              0               +10         +20             +30          +40                      No auctions on Jan 31st
         LB113A               2.09      2.11           2.13         2.15           2.16              2.18        2.20            2.22         1.98                                                                                                                                        Bid-
                                                                                                                                                                                                         Tenor              Amt.                      Accepted
           LB116A             2.70      2.61           2.51         2.42           2.32              2.23        2.13            2.04         1.69                     Symbol                                                                                            Avg. Yield (%) coverage
                                                                                                                                                                                                          (yrs)            (Bt mn)                    Range (%)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          ratio
          LB11NA              3.59      3.32           3.05         2.78           2.51              2.25        1.98            1.71         1.19
                                                                                                                                                                       CB11215A                          0.04              85,000                     2.080/2.143          2.130440       0.96
           LB123A             4.19      3.82           3.45         3.08           2.71              2.34        1.97            1.60         0.98
                                                                                                                                                                       Source: ThaiBMA
          LB12NA              5.35      4.74           4.13         3.52           2.90              2.29        1.68            1.07         0.20
           LB133A             6.02      5.28           4.54         3.80           3.06              2.32        1.59            0.85        -0.14                     Auction Calendar of BoT Bonds
           LB137A             6.59      5.72           4.86         4.00           3.13              2.27        1.41            0.55        -0.57                                                       Tenor              Amt.
                                                                                                                                                                       Symbol                                                                     Auction Date           Maturity Date Remark
          LB13OA              7.02      6.06           5.10         4.14           3.19              2.23        1.27            0.31        -0.89                                                        (yrs)            (Bt mn)
           LB143A             7.38      6.36           5.33         4.31           3.29              2.26        1.24            0.22        -1.05                     CB11303DA                         0.08              25,000                     01-Feb-11            03-Mar-11       -
           LB145A             7.94      6.79           5.64         4.50           3.35              2.20        1.06            -0.09 -1.49                           CB11506C                          0.25              22,000                     01-Feb-11           06-May-11        -
           LB145B             7.93      6.79           5.64         4.49           3.35              2.20        1.06            -0.09 -1.48                           CB11804B                          0.50              15,000                     01-Feb-11            04-Aug-11       -
          LB14DA              8.74      7.40           6.07         4.74           3.40              2.07        0.74            -0.59 -2.18                           CB12202A                          1.00              50,000                     01-Feb-11            02-Feb-12       -
           LB155A             9.51      7.98           6.46         4.94           3.42              1.90        0.39            -1.13 -2.90                           BOT142A                           3.00              15,000                     11-Feb-11            15-Feb-14       -
           LB157A             9.37      7.89           6.40         4.92           3.44              1.96        0.48            -1.00 -2.73                                                                                                                                               -
                                                                                                                                                                       BOT152A                           4.00              15,000                     22-Feb-11            24-Feb-11
          LB15DA              10.35 8.62               6.89         5.16           3.44              1.71       -0.01 -1.74 -3.72
                                                                                                                                                                       Source: ThaiBMA
           LB167A             10.94 9.08               7.23         5.37           3.52              1.66       -0.19 -2.04 -4.15
          LB16NA              11.49 9.51               7.52         5.54           3.56              1.57       -0.41 -2.39 -4.63
           LB171A             11.58 9.59               7.60         5.61           3.62              1.63       -0.35 -2.34 -4.58
           LB175A             12.11 9.99               7.87         5.76           3.64              1.53       -0.59 -2.70 -5.07                                      * Note that the MOF suspends auction of Treasury bills for two months
           LB183A             13.20 10.82 8.44                      6.06           3.69              1.31       -1.06 -3.44 -6.06                                      during January – February 2011. This is due to the large amount of Treasury
                                                                                                                                                                       cash balance.
           LB183B             12.90 10.60 8.29                      5.99           3.69              1.39       -0.91 -3.22 -5.77
           LB191A             13.87 11.33 8.79                      6.25           3.71              1.17       -1.37 -3.91 -6.69
           LB196A             14.82 12.04 9.27                      6.49           3.72              0.95       -1.83 -4.60 -7.62
           LB198A             14.64 11.92 9.21                      6.49           3.77              1.06       -1.65 -4.37 -7.33
          LB19DA              14.92 12.14 9.37                      6.59           3.81              1.04       -1.73 -4.51 -7.53
           LB213A             16.06 13.02 9.98                      6.94           3.91              0.87       -2.16 -5.19 -8.48
           LB214A             15.95 12.95 9.95                      6.95           3.95              0.96       -2.04 -5.03 -8.27
          LB22NA              18.04 14.55 11.05 7.56                               4.07              0.58       -2.91 -6.40 -10.13
           LB233A             18.11 14.61 11.11 7.61                               4.11              0.62       -2.87 -6.37 -10.11
           LB236A             19.55 15.69 11.83 7.97                               4.12              0.26       -3.59 -7.44 -11.54
           LB244A             19.67 15.79 11.91 8.03                               4.16              0.28       -3.59 -7.46 -11.58
          LB24DA              20.29 16.26 12.24 8.21                               4.19              0.18       -3.84 -7.86 -12.12
           LB267A             20.79 16.65 12.51 8.37                               4.23              0.10       -4.03 -8.16 -12.54
           LB283A             22.04 17.59 13.14 8.70                               4.26          -0.18 -4.61 -9.04 -13.72
           LB296A             23.75 18.88 14.01 9.14                               4.28          -0.58 -5.44 -10.29 -15.39
           LB383A             27.96 22.05 16.15 10.26 4.37                                       -1.52 -7.40 -13.27 -19.39
           LB396A             29.28 23.05 16.82 10.60 4.39                                       -1.82 -8.03 -14.23 -20.67
          Average             12.99 10.64 8.28                      5.93           3.58              1.23       -1.12 -3.47 -6.07
    Source: KBank, Bloomberg



            KBank Rich – Cheap Model
                                    30.00

                                    20.00

                                    10.00

                                     0.00

                                   -10.00

                                   -20.00

                                   -30.00                                                                                                                                                                                                             3 mth avg
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Now
                                   -40.00
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       LB296A
                                              LB113A

                                                        LB116A
                                                                 LB11NA

                                                                          LB123A

                                                                                   LB133A
                                                                                            LB137A

                                                                                                      LB145B

                                                                                                               LB14DA
                                                                                                                        LB155A

                                                                                                                                 LB15DA

                                                                                                                                          LB167A
                                                                                                                                                   LB16NA

                                                                                                                                                            LB175A

                                                                                                                                                                     LB183B
                                                                                                                                                                              LB191A

                                                                                                                                                                                       LB196A

                                                                                                                                                                                                LB198A
                                                                                                                                                                                                         LB19DA

                                                                                                                                                                                                                  LB213A

                                                                                                                                                                                                                           LB24DA
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    LB267A

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             LB283A


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                LB396A




            Source: Bloomberg, KBank                                                                                        The 3-month average indicates the average differences between observed and derived yields


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               4
    For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was
    obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein.
    Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
KBank Daily Update                            Feb 1, 2011



                      Economic News Update                                                                                       The Purchasing Managers’ Index fell to 52.9 from 53.9 in
                                                                                                                                 December, the China Federation of Logistics and
    Obama Health-Care Reform Act Ruled                                                                                           Purchasing said in a statement on its website. That was
    Unconstitutional: U.S. President Barack Obama                                                                                less than the median estimate of 53.5 in a Bloomberg
    lost the second of four court challenges to his health-care                                                                  News survey of 11 economists.
    law as a federal judge in Florida ruled that the measure
    went beyond the power of Congress to regulate commerce.                                                                      Premier Wen Jiabao aims to sustain growth while
                                                                                                                                 intensifying a campaign against real-estate speculation and
    U.S. District Judge Roger Vinson in Pensacola declared                                                                       fighting inflation that may have accelerated last month after
    the entire law invalid today in a 78-page opinion in a suit                                                                  storms disrupted food supplies. The World Bank estimates
    brought by 26 states. He said a provision requiring                                                                          that China’s economy will expand 8.7 percent this year,
    Americans over 18 to obtain insurance coverage violated                                                                      three times the pace of the U.S., as developing economies
    the U.S Constitution. The U.S. Justice Department said it                                                                    continue to outperform richer nations.
    will appeal.
                                                                                                                                 China’s economy expanded 9.8 percent in the fourth
    Florida sued on behalf of 13 states on March 23, the day                                                                     quarter from a year earlier, faster than the 9.6 percent gain
    Obama signed into law the Patient Protection and                                                                             in the previous three months.
    Affordable Care Act, legislation intended to provide the
    U.S. with almost universal health-care coverage. Seven                                                                       The central bank has raised benchmark interest rates twice
    states joined the suit last year, and six this year. Virginia                                                                since mid-October and pushed banks’ reserve
    sued separately on March 23 and Oklahoma filed its own                                                                       requirements to the highest level in more than two decades
    suit on Jan. 21.                                                                                                             to drain money from the financial system. The government
                                                                                                                                 also last month expanded measures to cool the real-estate
    “Regardless of how laudable its attempts may have been to                                                                    market, including by raising minimum down-payment
    accomplish these goals in passing the act, Congress must                                                                     requirements for second-home purchases.
    operate within the bounds established by the Constitution,”
    Vinson, 70, wrote. “This case is not about whether the act                                                                   The PMI is released by the Beijing-based logistics
    is wise or unwise legislation. It is about the constitutional                                                                federation and the National Bureau of Statistics and gives
    role of the federal government.” He declined to issue an                                                                     an indication of manufacturing activity by surveying more
    order blocking enforcement of the law.                                                                                       than 820 companies in 20 industries, including energy,
                                                                                                                                 metallurgy, textiles, automobiles and electronics.
    The ruling by Vinson, who was named to the federal bench
    in 1983 by President Ronald Reagan, a Republican, would                                                                      The central bank indicated in a Jan. 30 report that capital
    be appealed to the U.S. Court of Appeals in Atlanta. An                                                                      inflows and higher labor and resource costs may add to
    appeals court in Richmond, Virginia, is already slated in                                                                    inflation pressures. Tools for reining in liquidity and credit
    May to hear challenges to two conflicting lower-court                                                                        growth include interest rates, bill sales and bank reserve
    rulings in that state, one upholding the legislation, the other                                                              requirements, the People’s Bank of China said.
    invalidating part of it.
                                                                                                                                 Policy makers aim to hold growth in M2, the broadest
     “We strongly disagree with the court’s ruling today and                                                                     measure of money supply, at about 16 percent this year.
    continue to believe -- as other federal courts have found --                                                                 Last year, the actual 19.7 percent gain compared with a
    that the Affordable Care Act is constitutional,” Tracy                                                                       target of 17 percent. Local-currency lending totaled 7.95
    Schmaler, U.S. Justice Department spokeswoman, said in                                                                       trillion yuan ($1.2 trillion) in 2010, exceeding the
    an e-mailed statement. “There is clear and well-established                                                                  government’s 7.5 trillion yuan ceiling.
    legal precedent that Congress acted within its constitutional
                                                                                                                                 The latest measures to cool the property market include
    authority in passing this law.”
                                                                                                                                 increasing down-payment requirements for second homes
    The U.S. Supreme Court may ultimately be asked to                                                                            to 60 percent from 50 percent and trials of property taxes in
    consider the issue. Of the four courts that have ruled on the                                                                Shanghai and Chongqing. (Source: Bloomberg)
    health-care act, two found that Congress exceeded its
    authority, while two didn’t. Vinson is the first to invalidate
    the entire act.

    “The judge has confirmed what many of us knew from the
    start: Obamacare is an unprecedented and unconstitutional
    infringement on the liberty of the American people,” Florida
    Governor Rick Scott, a Republican, said in a statement.
    (Source: Bloomberg)
                                                                                                                                                            Market Strategists:
                                                                                                                                                            Nalin Chutchotitham

    China’s Manufacturing Growth Slows as                                                                                                                   Email: nalin.c@kasikornbank.com
    Policy Tightens: China’s manufacturing growth                                                                                                           Tel: 02-470-3235
    slowed for a second month in January after the central
    bank raised interest rates and lenders’ reserve
    requirements to counter inflation and asset-bubble risks.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         5
    For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was
    obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein.
    Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
KBank Daily Update                            Feb 1, 2011

                                                                                                       Economic Calendar
          Date / Time                   Country                                       Event                                      Period            Consensus                  Actual                  Prior                 Revised

       01/31/2011 04:00                      SK             Business Survey- Manufacturing                                         FEB                     --                     91                    92                       --
       01/31/2011 04:00                      SK             Business Survey- Non-Manufacturing                                     FEB                     --                     84                    87                       --
       01/31/2011 06:00                      SK             Service Industry Output YoY                                            DEC                     --                  2.10%                  3.60%                    3.80%
       01/31/2011 06:00                      SK             Industrial Production Mfg(YoY)                                         DEC                     --                  9.90%                 10.60%                   10.90%
       01/31/2011 06:00                      SK             Industrial Production (MoM)                                            DEC                  2.60%                  2.80%                  1.40%                    1.50%
       01/31/2011 06:00                      SK             Industrial Production (YoY)                                            DEC                  9.90%                  9.80%                 10.40%                   10.70%

       01/31/2011 06:00                      SK             Leading Index (YoY)                                                    DEC                     --                  2.30%                  2.60%                    2.50%
       01/31/2011 06:50                      JN             Industrial Production (MoM)                                          DEC P                  2.80%                  3.10%                  1.00%                      --
       01/31/2011 06:50                      JN             Industrial Production YOY%                                           DEC P                  4.40%                  4.60%                  5.80%                      --
       01/31/2011 09:00                      TA             HSBC Taiwan Manufacturing PMI                                          JAN                     --                   59.8                   54.7                      --
       01/31/2011 09:00                      PH             GDP (YoY)                                                               4Q                  6.00%                  7.10%                  6.50%                    6.30%
       01/31/2011 09:00                      SI             Unemployment Rate (sa)                                                  4Q                  2.10%                  2.20%                  2.10%                      --
       01/31/2011 09:00                      PH             GDP sa (QoQ)                                                            4Q                  1.50%                  3.00%                 -0.50%                   -0.80%
       01/31/2011 09:00                      SI             Credit Card Bad Debts                                                  DEC                     --                  17.2M                  13.4M                      --
       01/31/2011 09:00                      PH             Annual GDP (YoY)                                                     Dec-31                 7.00%                  7.30%                  0.90%                    1.10%
       01/31/2011 09:00                      SI             Credit Card Billings                                                   DEC                     --                3205.2M                2872.2M                      --
       01/31/2011 09:00                      SI             Bank Loans & Advances (YoY)                                            DEC                     --                 14.70%                 14.50%                      --
       01/31/2011 11:00                      JN             Vehicle Production (YoY)                                               DEC                     --                  -5.10%                -6.70%                      --
       01/31/2011 12:00                      JN             Housing Starts (YoY)                                                   DEC                  4.60%                  7.50%                  6.80%                      --
       01/31/2011 12:00                      JN             Annualized Housing Starts                                              DEC                  0.859M                0.861M                 0.847M                      --
       01/31/2011 14:00                      GE             Retail Sales (MoM)                                                     DEC                  2.00%                  -0.30%                -2.40%                   -1.90%
       01/31/2011 14:00                      GE             Retail Sales (YoY)                                                     DEC                  1.10%                  -1.30%                 2.00%                    2.60%
       01/31/2011 14:30                      TH             Total Exports YOY%                                                     DEC                     --                 18.60%                 28.70%                      --
       01/31/2011 14:30                      TH             Total Exports in US$ Million                                           DEC                     --                $17220M                $17584M                      --
       01/31/2011 14:30                      TH             Total Imports YOY%                                                     DEC                     --                  8.80%                 35.00%                      --
       01/31/2011 14:30                      TH             Total Imports in US$ Million                                           DEC                     --                $15911M                $17094M                      --
       01/31/2011 14:30                      TH             Total Trade Balance                                                    DEC                     --                 $1310M                 $490M                       --
       01/31/2011 14:30                      TH             Current Account Balance (USD)                                          DEC                 $2075M                 $1750M                 $1019M                      --
       01/31/2011 14:30                      TH             Overall Balance in US$ Million                                         DEC                     --                 $2263M                 $820M                       --
       01/31/2011 14:30                      TH             Business Sentiment Index                                               DEC                     --                   51.6                   52.5                      --
       01/31/2011 15:00                      TA             GDP - Constant Prices (YoY)                                           4Q P                  6.00%                  6.48%                  9.80%                      --
       01/31/2011 17:00                      EC             Euro-Zone CPI Estimate (YoY)                                           JAN                  2.30%                  2.40%                  2.20%                      --
       01/31/2011 20:30                      US             Personal Income                                                        DEC                  0.40%                  0.40%                  0.30%                    0.40%
       01/31/2011 20:30                      US             Personal Spending                                                      DEC                  0.50%                  0.70%                  0.40%                    0.30%
       01/31/2011 20:30                      US             PCE Core (MoM)                                                         DEC                  0.10%                  0.00%                  0.10%                      --
       01/31/2011 20:30                      US             PCE Core (YoY)                                                         DEC                  0.80%                  0.70%                  0.80%                      --
       01/31/2011 20:30                      US             PCE Deflator (YoY)                                                     DEC                  1.30%                  1.20%                  1.00%                    1.10%
       01/31/2011 21:45                      US             Chicago Purchasing Manager                                             JAN                    64.5                  68.8                   66.8                      --
       01/31/2011 22:00                      US             NAPM-Milwaukee                                                         JAN                     --                     57                    62                       --
       01/31/2011 22:30                      US             Dallas Fed Manf. Activity                                              JAN                     15                   10.9                   12.8                     15.8
       02/01/2011 06:00                      SK             Consumer Price Index (YoY)                                             JAN                  3.80%                  4.10%                  3.50%                      --
    Source: Bloomberg




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         6
    For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was
    obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein.
    Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.

More Related Content

What's hot

Q1 2009 Earning Report of Hitachi Construction Machinery Co., Ltd.
Q1 2009 Earning Report of Hitachi Construction Machinery Co., Ltd. Q1 2009 Earning Report of Hitachi Construction Machinery Co., Ltd.
Q1 2009 Earning Report of Hitachi Construction Machinery Co., Ltd. earningreport earningreport
 
KBank fx & rates strategies the shortest distance between two points is a s...
KBank fx & rates strategies   the shortest distance between two points is a s...KBank fx & rates strategies   the shortest distance between two points is a s...
KBank fx & rates strategies the shortest distance between two points is a s...KBank Fx Dealing Room
 
Daily i-forex-report by epic research 6 feb 2013
Daily i-forex-report by epic research 6 feb 2013Daily i-forex-report by epic research 6 feb 2013
Daily i-forex-report by epic research 6 feb 2013Epic Daily Report
 
BT Financial Monthly Chart - April 2010
BT Financial Monthly Chart - April 2010BT Financial Monthly Chart - April 2010
BT Financial Monthly Chart - April 2010BT Financial
 
Q1 2009 Earning Report of Sekisui Chemical Co., Ltd.
Q1 2009 Earning Report of Sekisui Chemical Co., Ltd.Q1 2009 Earning Report of Sekisui Chemical Co., Ltd.
Q1 2009 Earning Report of Sekisui Chemical Co., Ltd.earningreport earningreport
 

What's hot (18)

KBank Daily Update Dec 7
KBank Daily Update Dec 7KBank Daily Update Dec 7
KBank Daily Update Dec 7
 
K bank daily feb 8
K bank daily feb 8K bank daily feb 8
K bank daily feb 8
 
K bank daily mar 7
K bank daily mar 7K bank daily mar 7
K bank daily mar 7
 
K bank daily feb 17
K bank daily feb 17K bank daily feb 17
K bank daily feb 17
 
KBank Daily Sep 2011
KBank Daily Sep 2011KBank Daily Sep 2011
KBank Daily Sep 2011
 
K bank daily mar 21
K bank daily mar 21K bank daily mar 21
K bank daily mar 21
 
K bank daily mar 17
K bank daily mar 17K bank daily mar 17
K bank daily mar 17
 
KBank Daily Update Nov 21.2011
KBank Daily Update Nov 21.2011KBank Daily Update Nov 21.2011
KBank Daily Update Nov 21.2011
 
Q1 2009 Earning Report of Canon, Inc.
Q1 2009 Earning Report of Canon, Inc.Q1 2009 Earning Report of Canon, Inc.
Q1 2009 Earning Report of Canon, Inc.
 
K bank daily nov 22
K bank daily nov 22K bank daily nov 22
K bank daily nov 22
 
Fy 2010
Fy 2010Fy 2010
Fy 2010
 
Q1 2009 Earning Report of Hitachi Construction Machinery Co., Ltd.
Q1 2009 Earning Report of Hitachi Construction Machinery Co., Ltd. Q1 2009 Earning Report of Hitachi Construction Machinery Co., Ltd.
Q1 2009 Earning Report of Hitachi Construction Machinery Co., Ltd.
 
Daily marketstats16apr2013
Daily marketstats16apr2013Daily marketstats16apr2013
Daily marketstats16apr2013
 
KBank fx & rates strategies the shortest distance between two points is a s...
KBank fx & rates strategies   the shortest distance between two points is a s...KBank fx & rates strategies   the shortest distance between two points is a s...
KBank fx & rates strategies the shortest distance between two points is a s...
 
Q1 2009 Earning Report of Starhill Global Real
Q1 2009 Earning Report of Starhill Global RealQ1 2009 Earning Report of Starhill Global Real
Q1 2009 Earning Report of Starhill Global Real
 
Daily i-forex-report by epic research 6 feb 2013
Daily i-forex-report by epic research 6 feb 2013Daily i-forex-report by epic research 6 feb 2013
Daily i-forex-report by epic research 6 feb 2013
 
BT Financial Monthly Chart - April 2010
BT Financial Monthly Chart - April 2010BT Financial Monthly Chart - April 2010
BT Financial Monthly Chart - April 2010
 
Q1 2009 Earning Report of Sekisui Chemical Co., Ltd.
Q1 2009 Earning Report of Sekisui Chemical Co., Ltd.Q1 2009 Earning Report of Sekisui Chemical Co., Ltd.
Q1 2009 Earning Report of Sekisui Chemical Co., Ltd.
 

Viewers also liked

KBank Capital Market Perspective Feb 20 - gdp q4
KBank Capital Market Perspective   Feb 20 - gdp q4KBank Capital Market Perspective   Feb 20 - gdp q4
KBank Capital Market Perspective Feb 20 - gdp q4KBank Fx Dealing Room
 
KBank Capital Market Perspectives Oct 19
KBank Capital Market Perspectives Oct 19 KBank Capital Market Perspectives Oct 19
KBank Capital Market Perspectives Oct 19 KBank Fx Dealing Room
 
Cmb seminar khun kobsidthi 2011 12-15
Cmb seminar khun kobsidthi 2011 12-15Cmb seminar khun kobsidthi 2011 12-15
Cmb seminar khun kobsidthi 2011 12-15KBank Fx Dealing Room
 
KBank capital market perspectives dec 20 trade
KBank capital market perspectives dec 20   tradeKBank capital market perspectives dec 20   trade
KBank capital market perspectives dec 20 tradeKBank Fx Dealing Room
 
K bank multi asset strategies feb 2011
K bank multi asset strategies   feb 2011K bank multi asset strategies   feb 2011
K bank multi asset strategies feb 2011KBank Fx Dealing Room
 
KBank multi asset strategies Jan 2011 eng
KBank multi asset strategies Jan 2011 engKBank multi asset strategies Jan 2011 eng
KBank multi asset strategies Jan 2011 engKBank Fx Dealing Room
 
KBank Capital Market perspectives Portugal in focus
KBank Capital Market perspectives   Portugal in focusKBank Capital Market perspectives   Portugal in focus
KBank Capital Market perspectives Portugal in focusKBank Fx Dealing Room
 
ทิศทางอัตราดอกเบี้ยออสซี่
ทิศทางอัตราดอกเบี้ยออสซี่ทิศทางอัตราดอกเบี้ยออสซี่
ทิศทางอัตราดอกเบี้ยออสซี่KBank Fx Dealing Room
 
อัตราดอกเบี้ย mar 31
อัตราดอกเบี้ย mar 31อัตราดอกเบี้ย mar 31
อัตราดอกเบี้ย mar 31KBank Fx Dealing Room
 
KBank Capital Market Perspectives Oct MPC
KBank Capital Market Perspectives Oct MPCKBank Capital Market Perspectives Oct MPC
KBank Capital Market Perspectives Oct MPCKBank Fx Dealing Room
 
K bank fx & rates strategies views on thailand’s bond market in q3
K bank fx & rates strategies   views on thailand’s bond market in q3K bank fx & rates strategies   views on thailand’s bond market in q3
K bank fx & rates strategies views on thailand’s bond market in q3KBank Fx Dealing Room
 
Capital Market Business's event aug 2011.thai final
Capital Market Business's event aug 2011.thai finalCapital Market Business's event aug 2011.thai final
Capital Market Business's event aug 2011.thai finalKBank Fx Dealing Room
 
K bank fx & rates strategies an update of eurozone
K bank fx & rates strategies   an update of eurozoneK bank fx & rates strategies   an update of eurozone
K bank fx & rates strategies an update of eurozoneKBank Fx Dealing Room
 

Viewers also liked (20)

Market watch feb 2
Market watch feb 2Market watch feb 2
Market watch feb 2
 
Market watch jan 5
Market watch jan 5Market watch jan 5
Market watch jan 5
 
KBank Capital Market Perspective Feb 20 - gdp q4
KBank Capital Market Perspective   Feb 20 - gdp q4KBank Capital Market Perspective   Feb 20 - gdp q4
KBank Capital Market Perspective Feb 20 - gdp q4
 
KBank Capital Market Perspectives Oct 19
KBank Capital Market Perspectives Oct 19 KBank Capital Market Perspectives Oct 19
KBank Capital Market Perspectives Oct 19
 
Cmb seminar khun kobsidthi 2011 12-15
Cmb seminar khun kobsidthi 2011 12-15Cmb seminar khun kobsidthi 2011 12-15
Cmb seminar khun kobsidthi 2011 12-15
 
Market watch feb 23
Market watch feb 23Market watch feb 23
Market watch feb 23
 
KBank capital market perspectives dec 20 trade
KBank capital market perspectives dec 20   tradeKBank capital market perspectives dec 20   trade
KBank capital market perspectives dec 20 trade
 
K bank multi asset strategies feb 2011
K bank multi asset strategies   feb 2011K bank multi asset strategies   feb 2011
K bank multi asset strategies feb 2011
 
KBank Econ update jan 2012
KBank Econ update   jan 2012KBank Econ update   jan 2012
KBank Econ update jan 2012
 
KBank Economics update Mar 2012
KBank Economics update   Mar 2012KBank Economics update   Mar 2012
KBank Economics update Mar 2012
 
KBank multi asset strategies Jan 2011 eng
KBank multi asset strategies Jan 2011 engKBank multi asset strategies Jan 2011 eng
KBank multi asset strategies Jan 2011 eng
 
Market watch jan 19
Market watch jan 19Market watch jan 19
Market watch jan 19
 
KBank Capital Market perspectives Portugal in focus
KBank Capital Market perspectives   Portugal in focusKBank Capital Market perspectives   Portugal in focus
KBank Capital Market perspectives Portugal in focus
 
ทิศทางอัตราดอกเบี้ยออสซี่
ทิศทางอัตราดอกเบี้ยออสซี่ทิศทางอัตราดอกเบี้ยออสซี่
ทิศทางอัตราดอกเบี้ยออสซี่
 
อัตราดอกเบี้ย mar 31
อัตราดอกเบี้ย mar 31อัตราดอกเบี้ย mar 31
อัตราดอกเบี้ย mar 31
 
KBank Capital Market Perspectives Oct MPC
KBank Capital Market Perspectives Oct MPCKBank Capital Market Perspectives Oct MPC
KBank Capital Market Perspectives Oct MPC
 
K bank fx & rates strategies views on thailand’s bond market in q3
K bank fx & rates strategies   views on thailand’s bond market in q3K bank fx & rates strategies   views on thailand’s bond market in q3
K bank fx & rates strategies views on thailand’s bond market in q3
 
Capital Market Business's event aug 2011.thai final
Capital Market Business's event aug 2011.thai finalCapital Market Business's event aug 2011.thai final
Capital Market Business's event aug 2011.thai final
 
K bank fx & rates strategies an update of eurozone
K bank fx & rates strategies   an update of eurozoneK bank fx & rates strategies   an update of eurozone
K bank fx & rates strategies an update of eurozone
 
K bank econ update mar 2011
K bank econ update mar 2011K bank econ update mar 2011
K bank econ update mar 2011
 

Similar to Kbank daily feb 1

Daily i-forex-report-by epic research 22 feb 2013
Daily i-forex-report-by epic research 22 feb 2013Daily i-forex-report-by epic research 22 feb 2013
Daily i-forex-report-by epic research 22 feb 2013Epic Daily Report
 
Daily i-forex-report by epic research 7 feb 2013
Daily i-forex-report by epic research 7 feb 2013Daily i-forex-report by epic research 7 feb 2013
Daily i-forex-report by epic research 7 feb 2013Epic Daily Report
 
Daily i-forex-report by epic research 5 feb 2013
Daily i-forex-report by epic research 5 feb 2013Daily i-forex-report by epic research 5 feb 2013
Daily i-forex-report by epic research 5 feb 2013Epic Daily Report
 
Daily i-forex-report-1 by epic research 22.03.13
Daily i-forex-report-1 by epic research 22.03.13Daily i-forex-report-1 by epic research 22.03.13
Daily i-forex-report-1 by epic research 22.03.13Epic Daily Report
 
Daily i-forex-report-1 by epic research 16 april 2013
Daily i-forex-report-1 by epic research 16 april 2013Daily i-forex-report-1 by epic research 16 april 2013
Daily i-forex-report-1 by epic research 16 april 2013Epic Daily Report
 
Daily i-forex-report-by epic research 5 arril 2013
Daily i-forex-report-by epic research 5 arril 2013Daily i-forex-report-by epic research 5 arril 2013
Daily i-forex-report-by epic research 5 arril 2013Epic Daily Report
 
Daily i-forex-report-by epic research 26 feb 2013
Daily i-forex-report-by epic research 26 feb 2013Daily i-forex-report-by epic research 26 feb 2013
Daily i-forex-report-by epic research 26 feb 2013Epic Daily Report
 
Weekly Market Recap December 17, 2012
Weekly Market Recap December 17, 2012Weekly Market Recap December 17, 2012
Weekly Market Recap December 17, 2012Mark Adam
 
Weekly Market Recap December 17, 2012
Weekly Market Recap December 17, 2012Weekly Market Recap December 17, 2012
Weekly Market Recap December 17, 2012DWilkins
 
Daily i-forex-report-1 by epic research 23.03.13
Daily i-forex-report-1 by epic research 23.03.13Daily i-forex-report-1 by epic research 23.03.13
Daily i-forex-report-1 by epic research 23.03.13Epic Daily Report
 
Daily i-forex-report-1 by epic research 28.03.13
Daily i-forex-report-1 by epic research 28.03.13Daily i-forex-report-1 by epic research 28.03.13
Daily i-forex-report-1 by epic research 28.03.13Epic Daily Report
 
Daily i-forex-report by epic research 25 feb 2013
Daily i-forex-report by epic research 25 feb 2013Daily i-forex-report by epic research 25 feb 2013
Daily i-forex-report by epic research 25 feb 2013Epic Daily Report
 

Similar to Kbank daily feb 1 (18)

KBank daily Update Dec 7,2010
KBank daily Update Dec 7,2010KBank daily Update Dec 7,2010
KBank daily Update Dec 7,2010
 
K bank daily jan 19
K bank daily jan 19K bank daily jan 19
K bank daily jan 19
 
Daily i-forex-report-by epic research 22 feb 2013
Daily i-forex-report-by epic research 22 feb 2013Daily i-forex-report-by epic research 22 feb 2013
Daily i-forex-report-by epic research 22 feb 2013
 
Daily i-forex-report by epic research 7 feb 2013
Daily i-forex-report by epic research 7 feb 2013Daily i-forex-report by epic research 7 feb 2013
Daily i-forex-report by epic research 7 feb 2013
 
Daily i-forex-report by epic research 5 feb 2013
Daily i-forex-report by epic research 5 feb 2013Daily i-forex-report by epic research 5 feb 2013
Daily i-forex-report by epic research 5 feb 2013
 
Daily i-forex-report-1 by epic research 22.03.13
Daily i-forex-report-1 by epic research 22.03.13Daily i-forex-report-1 by epic research 22.03.13
Daily i-forex-report-1 by epic research 22.03.13
 
Daily marketstats15apr2013
Daily marketstats15apr2013Daily marketstats15apr2013
Daily marketstats15apr2013
 
Daily i-forex-report-1 by epic research 16 april 2013
Daily i-forex-report-1 by epic research 16 april 2013Daily i-forex-report-1 by epic research 16 april 2013
Daily i-forex-report-1 by epic research 16 april 2013
 
Daily i-forex-report-by epic research 5 arril 2013
Daily i-forex-report-by epic research 5 arril 2013Daily i-forex-report-by epic research 5 arril 2013
Daily i-forex-report-by epic research 5 arril 2013
 
Daily i-forex-report-by epic research 26 feb 2013
Daily i-forex-report-by epic research 26 feb 2013Daily i-forex-report-by epic research 26 feb 2013
Daily i-forex-report-by epic research 26 feb 2013
 
Weekly Market Recap December 17, 2012
Weekly Market Recap December 17, 2012Weekly Market Recap December 17, 2012
Weekly Market Recap December 17, 2012
 
Weekly Market Recap December 17, 2012
Weekly Market Recap December 17, 2012Weekly Market Recap December 17, 2012
Weekly Market Recap December 17, 2012
 
Weekly Market Recap December 17, 2012
Weekly Market Recap December 17, 2012Weekly Market Recap December 17, 2012
Weekly Market Recap December 17, 2012
 
Daily i-forex-report-1 by epic research 23.03.13
Daily i-forex-report-1 by epic research 23.03.13Daily i-forex-report-1 by epic research 23.03.13
Daily i-forex-report-1 by epic research 23.03.13
 
Daily marketstats14apr2013
Daily marketstats14apr2013Daily marketstats14apr2013
Daily marketstats14apr2013
 
Daily i-forex-report-1 by epic research 28.03.13
Daily i-forex-report-1 by epic research 28.03.13Daily i-forex-report-1 by epic research 28.03.13
Daily i-forex-report-1 by epic research 28.03.13
 
Daily i-forex-report by epic research 25 feb 2013
Daily i-forex-report by epic research 25 feb 2013Daily i-forex-report by epic research 25 feb 2013
Daily i-forex-report by epic research 25 feb 2013
 
Daily marketstats24may2013
Daily marketstats24may2013Daily marketstats24may2013
Daily marketstats24may2013
 

More from KBank Fx Dealing Room

KBank Capital Market perspectives May 18 markets wrap up - positioning for ...
KBank Capital Market perspectives   May 18 markets wrap up - positioning for ...KBank Capital Market perspectives   May 18 markets wrap up - positioning for ...
KBank Capital Market perspectives May 18 markets wrap up - positioning for ...KBank Fx Dealing Room
 
KBank Capital Market perspective May 18 greece
KBank Capital Market perspective May 18 greeceKBank Capital Market perspective May 18 greece
KBank Capital Market perspective May 18 greeceKBank Fx Dealing Room
 
KBank CMB Seminar Khun Kitti 2012 04-19
KBank CMB Seminar  Khun Kitti  2012 04-19KBank CMB Seminar  Khun Kitti  2012 04-19
KBank CMB Seminar Khun Kitti 2012 04-19KBank Fx Dealing Room
 
KBank CMB Seminar Khun Kobsidthi 2012 04-19
KBank CMB Seminar Khun Kobsidthi 2012 04-19KBank CMB Seminar Khun Kobsidthi 2012 04-19
KBank CMB Seminar Khun Kobsidthi 2012 04-19KBank Fx Dealing Room
 
KBank CMB Seminar Khun Kitti 2012 04-19
KBank CMB Seminar  Khun Kitti  2012 04-19KBank CMB Seminar  Khun Kitti  2012 04-19
KBank CMB Seminar Khun Kitti 2012 04-19KBank Fx Dealing Room
 
KBank Capital Market perspectives Apr 26 fomc
KBank Capital Market perspectives Apr 26  fomcKBank Capital Market perspectives Apr 26  fomc
KBank Capital Market perspectives Apr 26 fomcKBank Fx Dealing Room
 
KBank Capital Market perspective, FATFs slap on the wrist
KBank Capital Market perspective, FATFs slap on the wristKBank Capital Market perspective, FATFs slap on the wrist
KBank Capital Market perspective, FATFs slap on the wristKBank Fx Dealing Room
 
KBank CMB Seminar Khun Kitti 2012 02-17
KBank CMB Seminar Khun Kitti  2012 02-17KBank CMB Seminar Khun Kitti  2012 02-17
KBank CMB Seminar Khun Kitti 2012 02-17KBank Fx Dealing Room
 
KฺฺฺBank CMB seminar Khun Kobsidthi 2012 02-17
KฺฺฺBank CMB seminar Khun Kobsidthi 2012 02-17KฺฺฺBank CMB seminar Khun Kobsidthi 2012 02-17
KฺฺฺBank CMB seminar Khun Kobsidthi 2012 02-17KBank Fx Dealing Room
 
KBank Multi Asset Strategies Jan 2012
KBank Multi Asset Strategies   Jan 2012KBank Multi Asset Strategies   Jan 2012
KBank Multi Asset Strategies Jan 2012KBank Fx Dealing Room
 
K bank multi asset strategies jan 2012
K bank multi asset strategies   jan 2012K bank multi asset strategies   jan 2012
K bank multi asset strategies jan 2012KBank Fx Dealing Room
 
KBank Capital Market perspectives Dec 30 flooding and economic slowdown in n...
KBank Capital Market perspectives Dec 30  flooding and economic slowdown in n...KBank Capital Market perspectives Dec 30  flooding and economic slowdown in n...
KBank Capital Market perspectives Dec 30 flooding and economic slowdown in n...KBank Fx Dealing Room
 
KBank Multi Asset Strategies dec 2011 th
KBank Multi Asset Strategies dec 2011   thKBank Multi Asset Strategies dec 2011   th
KBank Multi Asset Strategies dec 2011 thKBank Fx Dealing Room
 
KBank Capital Market perspectives Nov 21.2011
KBank Capital Market perspectives Nov 21.2011KBank Capital Market perspectives Nov 21.2011
KBank Capital Market perspectives Nov 21.2011KBank Fx Dealing Room
 
KBank Multi Asset Strategies Nov 2011 (Thai version)
KBank Multi Asset Strategies Nov 2011   (Thai version)KBank Multi Asset Strategies Nov 2011   (Thai version)
KBank Multi Asset Strategies Nov 2011 (Thai version)KBank Fx Dealing Room
 
KBank Multi Asset Strategies oct 2011 (English)
KBank Multi Asset Strategies oct 2011 (English)KBank Multi Asset Strategies oct 2011 (English)
KBank Multi Asset Strategies oct 2011 (English)KBank Fx Dealing Room
 

More from KBank Fx Dealing Room (20)

KBank Capital Market perspectives May 18 markets wrap up - positioning for ...
KBank Capital Market perspectives   May 18 markets wrap up - positioning for ...KBank Capital Market perspectives   May 18 markets wrap up - positioning for ...
KBank Capital Market perspectives May 18 markets wrap up - positioning for ...
 
KBank Capital Market perspective May 18 greece
KBank Capital Market perspective May 18 greeceKBank Capital Market perspective May 18 greece
KBank Capital Market perspective May 18 greece
 
KBank CMB Seminar Khun Kitti 2012 04-19
KBank CMB Seminar  Khun Kitti  2012 04-19KBank CMB Seminar  Khun Kitti  2012 04-19
KBank CMB Seminar Khun Kitti 2012 04-19
 
KBank CMB Seminar Khun Kobsidthi 2012 04-19
KBank CMB Seminar Khun Kobsidthi 2012 04-19KBank CMB Seminar Khun Kobsidthi 2012 04-19
KBank CMB Seminar Khun Kobsidthi 2012 04-19
 
KBank CMB Seminar Khun Kitti 2012 04-19
KBank CMB Seminar  Khun Kitti  2012 04-19KBank CMB Seminar  Khun Kitti  2012 04-19
KBank CMB Seminar Khun Kitti 2012 04-19
 
KBank Capital Market perspectives Apr 26 fomc
KBank Capital Market perspectives Apr 26  fomcKBank Capital Market perspectives Apr 26  fomc
KBank Capital Market perspectives Apr 26 fomc
 
KBank CMB's event mar (Thai)
KBank CMB's event mar (Thai)KBank CMB's event mar (Thai)
KBank CMB's event mar (Thai)
 
KBank Capital Market perspective, FATFs slap on the wrist
KBank Capital Market perspective, FATFs slap on the wristKBank Capital Market perspective, FATFs slap on the wrist
KBank Capital Market perspective, FATFs slap on the wrist
 
KBank CMB Seminar Khun Kitti 2012 02-17
KBank CMB Seminar Khun Kitti  2012 02-17KBank CMB Seminar Khun Kitti  2012 02-17
KBank CMB Seminar Khun Kitti 2012 02-17
 
KฺฺฺBank CMB seminar Khun Kobsidthi 2012 02-17
KฺฺฺBank CMB seminar Khun Kobsidthi 2012 02-17KฺฺฺBank CMB seminar Khun Kobsidthi 2012 02-17
KฺฺฺBank CMB seminar Khun Kobsidthi 2012 02-17
 
Prariwat feb23
Prariwat feb23Prariwat feb23
Prariwat feb23
 
KBank Multi Asset Strategies Jan 2012
KBank Multi Asset Strategies   Jan 2012KBank Multi Asset Strategies   Jan 2012
KBank Multi Asset Strategies Jan 2012
 
K bank multi asset strategies jan 2012
K bank multi asset strategies   jan 2012K bank multi asset strategies   jan 2012
K bank multi asset strategies jan 2012
 
KBank Capital Market perspectives Dec 30 flooding and economic slowdown in n...
KBank Capital Market perspectives Dec 30  flooding and economic slowdown in n...KBank Capital Market perspectives Dec 30  flooding and economic slowdown in n...
KBank Capital Market perspectives Dec 30 flooding and economic slowdown in n...
 
KBank Multi Asset Strategies dec 2011 th
KBank Multi Asset Strategies dec 2011   thKBank Multi Asset Strategies dec 2011   th
KBank Multi Asset Strategies dec 2011 th
 
Cmb seminar khun kitti 2011 12-15
Cmb seminar khun kitti  2011 12-15Cmb seminar khun kitti  2011 12-15
Cmb seminar khun kitti 2011 12-15
 
KBank Capital Market perspectives Nov 21.2011
KBank Capital Market perspectives Nov 21.2011KBank Capital Market perspectives Nov 21.2011
KBank Capital Market perspectives Nov 21.2011
 
KBank Multi Asset Strategies Nov 2011 (Thai version)
KBank Multi Asset Strategies Nov 2011   (Thai version)KBank Multi Asset Strategies Nov 2011   (Thai version)
KBank Multi Asset Strategies Nov 2011 (Thai version)
 
Pariwat oct11
Pariwat oct11Pariwat oct11
Pariwat oct11
 
KBank Multi Asset Strategies oct 2011 (English)
KBank Multi Asset Strategies oct 2011 (English)KBank Multi Asset Strategies oct 2011 (English)
KBank Multi Asset Strategies oct 2011 (English)
 

Kbank daily feb 1

  • 1. Capital Markets Research Feb 1, 2011 Thai Stock Market Jan 31 Change US Market Jan 31 Change SET Index 964.1 -17.73 Dow Jones 11,891.93 +68.23 Market Turnover (Bt mn) 21,292.24 -6,003.88 Nasdaq 2,700.08 +13.19 Foreign Net Position (Bt mn) -883.64 -156.50 S&P 500 1,286.12 +9.78 Thai Bond Market Jan 31 Change US 10 yr T-note (%) 3.38 +5 bp Total Return Index 200.50 +0.11 US 2yr T-note (%) 0.57 +2 bp Total Market Turnover (Bt mn) NYMEX crude ($/b) 92.19 +2.85 Change (bp) 1m 3m 6m 1yr 2yr 3yr 5yr 7yr 10yr 12yr 14yr 18yr Jan 31 (%) 2.05 2.11 2.27 2.54 2.96 3.21 3.40 3.63 3.85 4.05 4.15 4.22 Change (bp) -1 0 -2 0 -1 -1 -3 -1 0 1 1 -1 Interbank Rates Feb 01 Jan 28 BIBOR 1w 1m 2m 3m 6m 9m 1yr Overnight (%) 2.25 2.050-2.210 Jan 31 2.26250 2.28766 2.34750 2.40000 2.50000 2.57125 2.67219 Repurchase Rates 1-day 7-day 14-day 1m SIBOR 1m 3m 6m Jan 31 2.25000 2.25000 - - Jan 31 0.27060 0.30900 0.46550 THBFIX (Ref.) 1m 2m 3m 6m 9m 1yr LIBOR 1m 3m 6m Jan 31 0.49345 0.62723 0.93188 1.42530 1.69804 1.92612 Jan 31 0.26000 0.30438 0.45381 SWAP (THB/THB,Onshore) 1yr 2yr 3yr 4yr 5yr 7yr 10yr Feb 01 Bid/Ask 1.86/1.90 2.57/2.61 3.07/3.11 3.40/3.44 3.64/3.68 3.95/3.99 4.21/4.25 KBank Counter Rates Buying Selling Premium/Discount (stgs/m) (against THB) Sight Bill T/T T/T Export/Import USD 30.64 30.74 30.99 -0.30/1.80 EUR 41.9638 42.1013 42.6300 -4.26/0.30 GBP 49.1075 49.2675 49.8563 -2.18/1.16 JPY 0.3716 0.3729 0.3798 -1.42/3.41 KBank Technical Analysis Feb 01 Jan 31 Support Resistance Trend Strategy THB (Onshore) 30.84 30.87 30.80 30.95 Sideway Sell USD near resistance JPY 81.99 82.07 81.80 82.60 Sideway Buy USD near support EUR/USD 1.3719 1.3685 1.3660 1.3760 Sideway Buy EUR near support Macro and Market Outlook • Crude oil price rose on the back of concerns about Egypt’s unrest and possible disruption of major transportation route • U.S. data continued to show positive signs, with personal spending up by 0.7% mom after a 0.3% climb in November but core inflation as measured from real spending fell to a record low • Thai domestic economy continued to see signs of a slower pace of expansion while trade and current accounts balances remained in surplus FX Market Wrap • EUR/USD rebounded to 1.369 as an early-estimate of inflation rate in the eurozone was at 2.4% in January, higher than the previous month’s 2.2% and the market’s forecast of 2.3% • USD/THB lowered to a close of 30.90 but, intraday, the pair rose to as high as 31.15. Baht later recovered some gains as U.S. economic data showed positive signs Economic News Update • Obama lost the second of four court challenges to his health-care law as a federal judge in Florida ruled that the measure went beyond the power of Congress to regulate commerce • China’s manufacturing growth slowed for a second month after the central bank raised interest rates and lenders’ reserve requirements to counter inflation and asset-bubble risks Now you can listen to today’s exchange rate trend (press 711) and our summary of exchange rate movements (press 721) via K-BIZ Contact Center 0 2888 8822, available 24 Hours www.twitter.com/KBankFX www.facebook.com/KBankFX 1 For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein. Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
  • 2. KBank Daily Update Feb 1, 2011 accounts balance remained in surplus, which should Macro and Market Outlook prevent any large rebound in the USD/THB. $/barrel US$, mn Current account (Trade balance + Services) and BOP 100 6000 95 5000 4000 90 3000 85 2000 80 1000 75 0 70 -1000 65 -2000 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Arabian Gulf Dubai Fateh WTI oil price (RHS) Dated Brent Trade balance Services and transfers Balance of Payments Crude oil price rose higher yesterday on the back of concerns of social unrests in Egypt which threatens the important transportation route – the Suez canal. Global US Treasuries and Thai rates stocks ended little changed on Monday as investors weigh positive economic data releases with the geopolitical uncertainties. Treasuries held a loss from yesterday as Asian stocks advanced before an industry report that economists said % yoy 8 will show manufacturing in the U.S. grew in January for an 18th month. 6 4 The difference between two- and 30-year yields was near the widest ever as investors demanded compensation on 2 their long- maturity holdings for the prospect of rising 0 inflation. The spread was 4.01 percentage points, versus -2 the record of 4.04 percentage points set Jan. 28. -4 Benchmark 10-year notes yielded 3.38 percent as of 10:13 2007 2008 2009 2010 a.m. in Tokyo, according to BGCantor Market Data. Personal income % yoy Personal spending % yoy (Source: Bloomberg) S&P Index (bp) U.S. data update – consumer spending rose more than 1350 300 estimated in December (0.7%mom vs. 0.3% in November) 1300 280 while personal income rose 0.1% mom (0.2% in 1250 November). Meanwhile, the ISM business confidence 260 1200 indicator rose to 68.8, its highest level since 1988. More 240 1150 signs are indicating a gradual improvement in the U.S. 220 1100 economy but core inflation, as measured from the personal 1050 200 consumption basket, rose by only 0.7% yoy (flat month-on- 1000 180 month), the lowest pace since the record began in 1960. Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 % YoY % YoY 12 24 S&P Index 2-10 Spread (bps, RHS) 10 19 8 14 6 Thai interest rate: Bond and IRS yields decline slight 9 4 4 yesterday (1-3bp lower), still capped on gains by the USD 2 liquidity shortage in the FX swap market. However, yields -1 0 -2 -6 remained higher than that of the previous week’s, reflecting -4 -11 market’s continued pricing in of further policy rate hike by -6 -16 the BoT. We expect that the FX wap market would return to -8 -21 normalcy if the market is convinced, somewhere in the 05 06 07 08 09 10 future, that trouble in Egypt would not spread or have a Private Consumtption Index (left axis) Private Investment Index(right axis) wide scale effect. Thai economic data update – domestic economy continued to see signs of a slower pace of expansion, bp Government bond yield change % especially for the private consumption and investment 12 5.0 indicators. Nevertheless, tourism sector still looked bright 10 4.5 while farm income index continued to show growth. 8 4.0 External trade sector still looks rather positive but some 6 3.5 signs of slowdown cannot be avoided as the global 4 3.0 economy sees a moderation in growth and the Thai baht 2 2.5 was among the 3 top gainers in Asia against the USD. 0 2.0 Exports grew by 18.6% in December while imports rose by 0.3 0.5 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 15.0 16.0 20.0 yrs 8.8%, both showing signs of deceleration from previous Spread (left axis) 1-Feb-11 25-Jan-11 month’s high growth rates. Trade balance and current 2 For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein. Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
  • 3. KBank Daily Update Feb 1, 2011 FX Wrap Currency Movement Mon 31-Jan-11 Fri 28-Jan-11 % Change 1.42 1.40 USD/THB 30.90 31.03 -0.42 1.38 USD/JPY 82.07 82.10 -0.04 1.36 EUR/USD 1.369 1.361 +0.57 1.34 GBP/USD 1.6015 1.5860 +0.98 1.32 1.30 USD/CHF 0.9438 0.9416 +0.23 1.28 USD/SGD 1.2791 1.2846 -0.43 1.26 USD/TWD 29.03 29.05 -0.07 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 USD/KRW 1,119.3 1,115.6 +0.33 EUR/USD USD/PHP 44.22 44.08 +0.32 EUR/USD rebounded to 1.369 as an early-estimate of USD/IDR 9,043 9,023 +0.22 inflation rate in the eurozone was at 2.4% in January, USD/MYR 3.060 3.054 +0.20 higher than the previous month’s 2.2% and the market’s forecast of 2.3%. This marks the second month that USD/CNY 6.602 6.582 +0.30 Source: Reuters inflation rate had exceeded the ECB’s policy target of .FX Consensus Forecast 2.0%. The market is speculating that Europe’s interest rate may have to rise much earlier than previous thought, Spot Jun 2011 Dec 2011 supporting the euro vs the greenback as the Fed is expected to keep policy rate unchanged till year-end. USD/THB 30.90 28.30 28.00 USD/JPY 82.05 86.00 89.00 38.00 80 EUR/USD 1.37 1.30 1.31 37.50 GBP/USD 1.61 1.55 1.60 82 37.00 USD/CNY 6.60 6.45 6.30 36.50 84 USD/SGD 1.28 1.27 1.23 36.00 USD/IDR 9,039 8,900 8,800 86 35.50 USD/MYR 3.06 3.02 2.96 35.00 88 USD/PHP 44.21 42.60 41.50 1-Nov 1-Dec 1-Jan 1-Feb USD/KRW 1,117 1,090 1,050 JPY/THB (LHS) USD/JPY (RHS, inverted axis) USD/TWD 29.03 28.80 28.60 AUD/USD 1.00 0.99 0.97 USD/JPY closed at 82.07, still in range trade and likely to remain supported in the near-term amid the uncertainties in NZD/USD 0.77 0.77 0.76 the global markets. Source: Bloomberg, KBank for USD/THB 31.30 Currency Pair Targets 31.10 Spot Jun 2011 Dec 2011 30.90 USD/THB 31.18 28.30 28.0 30.70 30.50 EUR/THB 42.38 40.0 37.0 30.30 30.10 JPY/THB 37.90 34.70 29.5 29.90 GBP/THB 49.35 47.40 43.7 29.70 29.50 CNY/THB 4.73 4.78 4.2 1-Nov 16-Nov 1-Dec 16-Dec 31-Dec 15-Jan 30-Jan AUD/THB 30.89 27.4 26.0 USD/THB CHF/THB 33.11 29.6 27.7 Source: KBank, Bloomberg USD/THB lowered to a close of 30.90, similar to Thursday’s level. Intraday, the pair rose to as high as 31.15 KBank NEER Index but the baht later recovered some gains as U.S. economic Current 97.99 data showed positive signs, and baht followed the euro and other risky assets stronger. YTD + 5.23% vs 52 weeks ago + 4.16% China fixed its reference rate at a record high again today, vs 1mth ago - 2.51% reaffirming its move towards letting the yuan appreciate vs 1 week ago + 0.37% against the greenback. The reference rate is at 6.6860 today vs. 6.5891 on Monday. vs 1 day ago + 0.00% vs long term average + 10.17% Note: NEER is constructed from the weighted average of bilateral exchange rates of the baht via Thailand’s 21 major trading partners and trade competitors. An increase in NEER refers to an appreciation 3 For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein. Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
  • 4. KBank Daily Update Feb 1, 2011 Total Return Analysis – 3 month horizon, annualized Auction results of BoT Bonds Jan 28 Yield shift (bps) -40 -30 -20 -10 0 +10 +20 +30 +40 No auctions on Jan 31st LB113A 2.09 2.11 2.13 2.15 2.16 2.18 2.20 2.22 1.98 Bid- Tenor Amt. Accepted LB116A 2.70 2.61 2.51 2.42 2.32 2.23 2.13 2.04 1.69 Symbol Avg. Yield (%) coverage (yrs) (Bt mn) Range (%) ratio LB11NA 3.59 3.32 3.05 2.78 2.51 2.25 1.98 1.71 1.19 CB11215A 0.04 85,000 2.080/2.143 2.130440 0.96 LB123A 4.19 3.82 3.45 3.08 2.71 2.34 1.97 1.60 0.98 Source: ThaiBMA LB12NA 5.35 4.74 4.13 3.52 2.90 2.29 1.68 1.07 0.20 LB133A 6.02 5.28 4.54 3.80 3.06 2.32 1.59 0.85 -0.14 Auction Calendar of BoT Bonds LB137A 6.59 5.72 4.86 4.00 3.13 2.27 1.41 0.55 -0.57 Tenor Amt. Symbol Auction Date Maturity Date Remark LB13OA 7.02 6.06 5.10 4.14 3.19 2.23 1.27 0.31 -0.89 (yrs) (Bt mn) LB143A 7.38 6.36 5.33 4.31 3.29 2.26 1.24 0.22 -1.05 CB11303DA 0.08 25,000 01-Feb-11 03-Mar-11 - LB145A 7.94 6.79 5.64 4.50 3.35 2.20 1.06 -0.09 -1.49 CB11506C 0.25 22,000 01-Feb-11 06-May-11 - LB145B 7.93 6.79 5.64 4.49 3.35 2.20 1.06 -0.09 -1.48 CB11804B 0.50 15,000 01-Feb-11 04-Aug-11 - LB14DA 8.74 7.40 6.07 4.74 3.40 2.07 0.74 -0.59 -2.18 CB12202A 1.00 50,000 01-Feb-11 02-Feb-12 - LB155A 9.51 7.98 6.46 4.94 3.42 1.90 0.39 -1.13 -2.90 BOT142A 3.00 15,000 11-Feb-11 15-Feb-14 - LB157A 9.37 7.89 6.40 4.92 3.44 1.96 0.48 -1.00 -2.73 - BOT152A 4.00 15,000 22-Feb-11 24-Feb-11 LB15DA 10.35 8.62 6.89 5.16 3.44 1.71 -0.01 -1.74 -3.72 Source: ThaiBMA LB167A 10.94 9.08 7.23 5.37 3.52 1.66 -0.19 -2.04 -4.15 LB16NA 11.49 9.51 7.52 5.54 3.56 1.57 -0.41 -2.39 -4.63 LB171A 11.58 9.59 7.60 5.61 3.62 1.63 -0.35 -2.34 -4.58 LB175A 12.11 9.99 7.87 5.76 3.64 1.53 -0.59 -2.70 -5.07 * Note that the MOF suspends auction of Treasury bills for two months LB183A 13.20 10.82 8.44 6.06 3.69 1.31 -1.06 -3.44 -6.06 during January – February 2011. This is due to the large amount of Treasury cash balance. LB183B 12.90 10.60 8.29 5.99 3.69 1.39 -0.91 -3.22 -5.77 LB191A 13.87 11.33 8.79 6.25 3.71 1.17 -1.37 -3.91 -6.69 LB196A 14.82 12.04 9.27 6.49 3.72 0.95 -1.83 -4.60 -7.62 LB198A 14.64 11.92 9.21 6.49 3.77 1.06 -1.65 -4.37 -7.33 LB19DA 14.92 12.14 9.37 6.59 3.81 1.04 -1.73 -4.51 -7.53 LB213A 16.06 13.02 9.98 6.94 3.91 0.87 -2.16 -5.19 -8.48 LB214A 15.95 12.95 9.95 6.95 3.95 0.96 -2.04 -5.03 -8.27 LB22NA 18.04 14.55 11.05 7.56 4.07 0.58 -2.91 -6.40 -10.13 LB233A 18.11 14.61 11.11 7.61 4.11 0.62 -2.87 -6.37 -10.11 LB236A 19.55 15.69 11.83 7.97 4.12 0.26 -3.59 -7.44 -11.54 LB244A 19.67 15.79 11.91 8.03 4.16 0.28 -3.59 -7.46 -11.58 LB24DA 20.29 16.26 12.24 8.21 4.19 0.18 -3.84 -7.86 -12.12 LB267A 20.79 16.65 12.51 8.37 4.23 0.10 -4.03 -8.16 -12.54 LB283A 22.04 17.59 13.14 8.70 4.26 -0.18 -4.61 -9.04 -13.72 LB296A 23.75 18.88 14.01 9.14 4.28 -0.58 -5.44 -10.29 -15.39 LB383A 27.96 22.05 16.15 10.26 4.37 -1.52 -7.40 -13.27 -19.39 LB396A 29.28 23.05 16.82 10.60 4.39 -1.82 -8.03 -14.23 -20.67 Average 12.99 10.64 8.28 5.93 3.58 1.23 -1.12 -3.47 -6.07 Source: KBank, Bloomberg KBank Rich – Cheap Model 30.00 20.00 10.00 0.00 -10.00 -20.00 -30.00 3 mth avg Now -40.00 LB296A LB113A LB116A LB11NA LB123A LB133A LB137A LB145B LB14DA LB155A LB15DA LB167A LB16NA LB175A LB183B LB191A LB196A LB198A LB19DA LB213A LB24DA LB267A LB283A LB396A Source: Bloomberg, KBank The 3-month average indicates the average differences between observed and derived yields 4 For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein. Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
  • 5. KBank Daily Update Feb 1, 2011 Economic News Update The Purchasing Managers’ Index fell to 52.9 from 53.9 in December, the China Federation of Logistics and Obama Health-Care Reform Act Ruled Purchasing said in a statement on its website. That was Unconstitutional: U.S. President Barack Obama less than the median estimate of 53.5 in a Bloomberg lost the second of four court challenges to his health-care News survey of 11 economists. law as a federal judge in Florida ruled that the measure went beyond the power of Congress to regulate commerce. Premier Wen Jiabao aims to sustain growth while intensifying a campaign against real-estate speculation and U.S. District Judge Roger Vinson in Pensacola declared fighting inflation that may have accelerated last month after the entire law invalid today in a 78-page opinion in a suit storms disrupted food supplies. The World Bank estimates brought by 26 states. He said a provision requiring that China’s economy will expand 8.7 percent this year, Americans over 18 to obtain insurance coverage violated three times the pace of the U.S., as developing economies the U.S Constitution. The U.S. Justice Department said it continue to outperform richer nations. will appeal. China’s economy expanded 9.8 percent in the fourth Florida sued on behalf of 13 states on March 23, the day quarter from a year earlier, faster than the 9.6 percent gain Obama signed into law the Patient Protection and in the previous three months. Affordable Care Act, legislation intended to provide the U.S. with almost universal health-care coverage. Seven The central bank has raised benchmark interest rates twice states joined the suit last year, and six this year. Virginia since mid-October and pushed banks’ reserve sued separately on March 23 and Oklahoma filed its own requirements to the highest level in more than two decades suit on Jan. 21. to drain money from the financial system. The government also last month expanded measures to cool the real-estate “Regardless of how laudable its attempts may have been to market, including by raising minimum down-payment accomplish these goals in passing the act, Congress must requirements for second-home purchases. operate within the bounds established by the Constitution,” Vinson, 70, wrote. “This case is not about whether the act The PMI is released by the Beijing-based logistics is wise or unwise legislation. It is about the constitutional federation and the National Bureau of Statistics and gives role of the federal government.” He declined to issue an an indication of manufacturing activity by surveying more order blocking enforcement of the law. than 820 companies in 20 industries, including energy, metallurgy, textiles, automobiles and electronics. The ruling by Vinson, who was named to the federal bench in 1983 by President Ronald Reagan, a Republican, would The central bank indicated in a Jan. 30 report that capital be appealed to the U.S. Court of Appeals in Atlanta. An inflows and higher labor and resource costs may add to appeals court in Richmond, Virginia, is already slated in inflation pressures. Tools for reining in liquidity and credit May to hear challenges to two conflicting lower-court growth include interest rates, bill sales and bank reserve rulings in that state, one upholding the legislation, the other requirements, the People’s Bank of China said. invalidating part of it. Policy makers aim to hold growth in M2, the broadest “We strongly disagree with the court’s ruling today and measure of money supply, at about 16 percent this year. continue to believe -- as other federal courts have found -- Last year, the actual 19.7 percent gain compared with a that the Affordable Care Act is constitutional,” Tracy target of 17 percent. Local-currency lending totaled 7.95 Schmaler, U.S. Justice Department spokeswoman, said in trillion yuan ($1.2 trillion) in 2010, exceeding the an e-mailed statement. “There is clear and well-established government’s 7.5 trillion yuan ceiling. legal precedent that Congress acted within its constitutional The latest measures to cool the property market include authority in passing this law.” increasing down-payment requirements for second homes The U.S. Supreme Court may ultimately be asked to to 60 percent from 50 percent and trials of property taxes in consider the issue. Of the four courts that have ruled on the Shanghai and Chongqing. (Source: Bloomberg) health-care act, two found that Congress exceeded its authority, while two didn’t. Vinson is the first to invalidate the entire act. “The judge has confirmed what many of us knew from the start: Obamacare is an unprecedented and unconstitutional infringement on the liberty of the American people,” Florida Governor Rick Scott, a Republican, said in a statement. (Source: Bloomberg) Market Strategists: Nalin Chutchotitham China’s Manufacturing Growth Slows as Email: nalin.c@kasikornbank.com Policy Tightens: China’s manufacturing growth Tel: 02-470-3235 slowed for a second month in January after the central bank raised interest rates and lenders’ reserve requirements to counter inflation and asset-bubble risks. 5 For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein. Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
  • 6. KBank Daily Update Feb 1, 2011 Economic Calendar Date / Time Country Event Period Consensus Actual Prior Revised 01/31/2011 04:00 SK Business Survey- Manufacturing FEB -- 91 92 -- 01/31/2011 04:00 SK Business Survey- Non-Manufacturing FEB -- 84 87 -- 01/31/2011 06:00 SK Service Industry Output YoY DEC -- 2.10% 3.60% 3.80% 01/31/2011 06:00 SK Industrial Production Mfg(YoY) DEC -- 9.90% 10.60% 10.90% 01/31/2011 06:00 SK Industrial Production (MoM) DEC 2.60% 2.80% 1.40% 1.50% 01/31/2011 06:00 SK Industrial Production (YoY) DEC 9.90% 9.80% 10.40% 10.70% 01/31/2011 06:00 SK Leading Index (YoY) DEC -- 2.30% 2.60% 2.50% 01/31/2011 06:50 JN Industrial Production (MoM) DEC P 2.80% 3.10% 1.00% -- 01/31/2011 06:50 JN Industrial Production YOY% DEC P 4.40% 4.60% 5.80% -- 01/31/2011 09:00 TA HSBC Taiwan Manufacturing PMI JAN -- 59.8 54.7 -- 01/31/2011 09:00 PH GDP (YoY) 4Q 6.00% 7.10% 6.50% 6.30% 01/31/2011 09:00 SI Unemployment Rate (sa) 4Q 2.10% 2.20% 2.10% -- 01/31/2011 09:00 PH GDP sa (QoQ) 4Q 1.50% 3.00% -0.50% -0.80% 01/31/2011 09:00 SI Credit Card Bad Debts DEC -- 17.2M 13.4M -- 01/31/2011 09:00 PH Annual GDP (YoY) Dec-31 7.00% 7.30% 0.90% 1.10% 01/31/2011 09:00 SI Credit Card Billings DEC -- 3205.2M 2872.2M -- 01/31/2011 09:00 SI Bank Loans & Advances (YoY) DEC -- 14.70% 14.50% -- 01/31/2011 11:00 JN Vehicle Production (YoY) DEC -- -5.10% -6.70% -- 01/31/2011 12:00 JN Housing Starts (YoY) DEC 4.60% 7.50% 6.80% -- 01/31/2011 12:00 JN Annualized Housing Starts DEC 0.859M 0.861M 0.847M -- 01/31/2011 14:00 GE Retail Sales (MoM) DEC 2.00% -0.30% -2.40% -1.90% 01/31/2011 14:00 GE Retail Sales (YoY) DEC 1.10% -1.30% 2.00% 2.60% 01/31/2011 14:30 TH Total Exports YOY% DEC -- 18.60% 28.70% -- 01/31/2011 14:30 TH Total Exports in US$ Million DEC -- $17220M $17584M -- 01/31/2011 14:30 TH Total Imports YOY% DEC -- 8.80% 35.00% -- 01/31/2011 14:30 TH Total Imports in US$ Million DEC -- $15911M $17094M -- 01/31/2011 14:30 TH Total Trade Balance DEC -- $1310M $490M -- 01/31/2011 14:30 TH Current Account Balance (USD) DEC $2075M $1750M $1019M -- 01/31/2011 14:30 TH Overall Balance in US$ Million DEC -- $2263M $820M -- 01/31/2011 14:30 TH Business Sentiment Index DEC -- 51.6 52.5 -- 01/31/2011 15:00 TA GDP - Constant Prices (YoY) 4Q P 6.00% 6.48% 9.80% -- 01/31/2011 17:00 EC Euro-Zone CPI Estimate (YoY) JAN 2.30% 2.40% 2.20% -- 01/31/2011 20:30 US Personal Income DEC 0.40% 0.40% 0.30% 0.40% 01/31/2011 20:30 US Personal Spending DEC 0.50% 0.70% 0.40% 0.30% 01/31/2011 20:30 US PCE Core (MoM) DEC 0.10% 0.00% 0.10% -- 01/31/2011 20:30 US PCE Core (YoY) DEC 0.80% 0.70% 0.80% -- 01/31/2011 20:30 US PCE Deflator (YoY) DEC 1.30% 1.20% 1.00% 1.10% 01/31/2011 21:45 US Chicago Purchasing Manager JAN 64.5 68.8 66.8 -- 01/31/2011 22:00 US NAPM-Milwaukee JAN -- 57 62 -- 01/31/2011 22:30 US Dallas Fed Manf. Activity JAN 15 10.9 12.8 15.8 02/01/2011 06:00 SK Consumer Price Index (YoY) JAN 3.80% 4.10% 3.50% -- Source: Bloomberg 6 For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein. Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.