1. Capital Markets Research
Feb 1, 2011
Thai Stock Market Jan 31 Change US Market Jan 31 Change
SET Index 964.1 -17.73 Dow Jones 11,891.93 +68.23
Market Turnover (Bt mn) 21,292.24 -6,003.88 Nasdaq 2,700.08 +13.19
Foreign Net Position (Bt mn) -883.64 -156.50 S&P 500 1,286.12 +9.78
Thai Bond Market Jan 31 Change US 10 yr T-note (%) 3.38 +5 bp
Total Return Index 200.50 +0.11 US 2yr T-note (%) 0.57 +2 bp
Total Market Turnover (Bt mn) NYMEX crude ($/b) 92.19 +2.85
Change (bp) 1m 3m 6m 1yr 2yr 3yr 5yr 7yr 10yr 12yr 14yr 18yr
Jan 31 (%) 2.05 2.11 2.27 2.54 2.96 3.21 3.40 3.63 3.85 4.05 4.15 4.22
Change (bp) -1 0 -2 0 -1 -1 -3 -1 0 1 1 -1
Interbank Rates Feb 01 Jan 28 BIBOR 1w 1m 2m 3m 6m 9m 1yr
Overnight (%) 2.25 2.050-2.210 Jan 31 2.26250 2.28766 2.34750 2.40000 2.50000 2.57125 2.67219
Repurchase Rates 1-day 7-day 14-day 1m SIBOR 1m 3m 6m
Jan 31 2.25000 2.25000 - - Jan 31 0.27060 0.30900 0.46550
THBFIX (Ref.) 1m 2m 3m 6m 9m 1yr LIBOR 1m 3m 6m
Jan 31 0.49345 0.62723 0.93188 1.42530 1.69804 1.92612 Jan 31 0.26000 0.30438 0.45381
SWAP (THB/THB,Onshore) 1yr 2yr 3yr 4yr 5yr 7yr 10yr
Feb 01 Bid/Ask 1.86/1.90 2.57/2.61 3.07/3.11 3.40/3.44 3.64/3.68 3.95/3.99 4.21/4.25
KBank Counter Rates Buying Selling Premium/Discount (stgs/m)
(against THB) Sight Bill T/T T/T Export/Import
USD 30.64 30.74 30.99 -0.30/1.80
EUR 41.9638 42.1013 42.6300 -4.26/0.30
GBP 49.1075 49.2675 49.8563 -2.18/1.16
JPY 0.3716 0.3729 0.3798 -1.42/3.41
KBank Technical Analysis Feb 01 Jan 31 Support Resistance Trend Strategy
THB (Onshore) 30.84 30.87 30.80 30.95 Sideway Sell USD near resistance
JPY 81.99 82.07 81.80 82.60 Sideway Buy USD near support
EUR/USD 1.3719 1.3685 1.3660 1.3760 Sideway Buy EUR near support
Macro and Market Outlook
• Crude oil price rose on the back of concerns about Egypt’s unrest and possible disruption of
major transportation route
• U.S. data continued to show positive signs, with personal spending up by 0.7% mom after a
0.3% climb in November but core inflation as measured from real spending fell to a record low
• Thai domestic economy continued to see signs of a slower pace of expansion while trade and
current accounts balances remained in surplus
FX Market Wrap
• EUR/USD rebounded to 1.369 as an early-estimate of inflation rate in the eurozone was at 2.4%
in January, higher than the previous month’s 2.2% and the market’s forecast of 2.3%
• USD/THB lowered to a close of 30.90 but, intraday, the pair rose to as high as 31.15. Baht later
recovered some gains as U.S. economic data showed positive signs
Economic News Update
• Obama lost the second of four court challenges to his health-care law as a federal judge in
Florida ruled that the measure went beyond the power of Congress to regulate commerce
• China’s manufacturing growth slowed for a second month after the central bank raised interest
rates and lenders’ reserve requirements to counter inflation and asset-bubble risks
Now you can listen to today’s exchange rate trend (press 711) and our summary of exchange rate movements (press 721)
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1
For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was
obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein.
Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
2. KBank Daily Update Feb 1, 2011
accounts balance remained in surplus, which should
Macro and Market Outlook prevent any large rebound in the USD/THB.
$/barrel US$, mn Current account (Trade balance + Services) and BOP
100 6000
95 5000
4000
90
3000
85
2000
80
1000
75 0
70 -1000
65 -2000
Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10
Arabian Gulf Dubai Fateh WTI oil price (RHS) Dated Brent Trade balance Services and transfers Balance of Payments
Crude oil price rose higher yesterday on the back of
concerns of social unrests in Egypt which threatens the
important transportation route – the Suez canal. Global US Treasuries and Thai rates
stocks ended little changed on Monday as investors weigh
positive economic data releases with the geopolitical
uncertainties. Treasuries held a loss from yesterday as Asian stocks
advanced before an industry report that economists said
% yoy
8
will show manufacturing in the U.S. grew in January for an
18th month.
6
4 The difference between two- and 30-year yields was near
the widest ever as investors demanded compensation on
2
their long- maturity holdings for the prospect of rising
0 inflation. The spread was 4.01 percentage points, versus
-2 the record of 4.04 percentage points set Jan. 28.
-4
Benchmark 10-year notes yielded 3.38 percent as of 10:13
2007 2008 2009 2010
a.m. in Tokyo, according to BGCantor Market Data.
Personal income % yoy Personal spending % yoy
(Source: Bloomberg)
S&P Index (bp)
U.S. data update – consumer spending rose more than
1350 300
estimated in December (0.7%mom vs. 0.3% in November)
1300 280
while personal income rose 0.1% mom (0.2% in
1250
November). Meanwhile, the ISM business confidence 260
1200
indicator rose to 68.8, its highest level since 1988. More 240
1150
signs are indicating a gradual improvement in the U.S. 220
1100
economy but core inflation, as measured from the personal
1050 200
consumption basket, rose by only 0.7% yoy (flat month-on-
1000 180
month), the lowest pace since the record began in 1960.
Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11
% YoY % YoY
12 24 S&P Index 2-10 Spread (bps, RHS)
10 19
8 14
6
Thai interest rate: Bond and IRS yields decline slight
9
4
4
yesterday (1-3bp lower), still capped on gains by the USD
2 liquidity shortage in the FX swap market. However, yields
-1
0
-2 -6 remained higher than that of the previous week’s, reflecting
-4 -11 market’s continued pricing in of further policy rate hike by
-6 -16 the BoT. We expect that the FX wap market would return to
-8 -21 normalcy if the market is convinced, somewhere in the
05 06 07 08 09 10
future, that trouble in Egypt would not spread or have a
Private Consumtption Index (left axis) Private Investment Index(right axis)
wide scale effect.
Thai economic data update – domestic economy
continued to see signs of a slower pace of expansion, bp Government bond yield change %
especially for the private consumption and investment 12 5.0
indicators. Nevertheless, tourism sector still looked bright 10 4.5
while farm income index continued to show growth.
8 4.0
External trade sector still looks rather positive but some 6 3.5
signs of slowdown cannot be avoided as the global 4 3.0
economy sees a moderation in growth and the Thai baht 2 2.5
was among the 3 top gainers in Asia against the USD.
0 2.0
Exports grew by 18.6% in December while imports rose by
0.3 0.5 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 15.0 16.0 20.0 yrs
8.8%, both showing signs of deceleration from previous
Spread (left axis) 1-Feb-11 25-Jan-11
month’s high growth rates. Trade balance and current
2
For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was
obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein.
Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
3. KBank Daily Update Feb 1, 2011
FX Wrap Currency Movement
Mon 31-Jan-11 Fri 28-Jan-11 % Change
1.42
1.40 USD/THB 30.90 31.03 -0.42
1.38 USD/JPY 82.07 82.10 -0.04
1.36 EUR/USD 1.369 1.361 +0.57
1.34
GBP/USD 1.6015 1.5860 +0.98
1.32
1.30 USD/CHF 0.9438 0.9416 +0.23
1.28 USD/SGD 1.2791 1.2846 -0.43
1.26 USD/TWD 29.03 29.05 -0.07
Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11
USD/KRW 1,119.3 1,115.6 +0.33
EUR/USD
USD/PHP 44.22 44.08 +0.32
EUR/USD rebounded to 1.369 as an early-estimate of USD/IDR 9,043 9,023 +0.22
inflation rate in the eurozone was at 2.4% in January, USD/MYR 3.060 3.054 +0.20
higher than the previous month’s 2.2% and the market’s
forecast of 2.3%. This marks the second month that USD/CNY 6.602 6.582 +0.30
Source: Reuters
inflation rate had exceeded the ECB’s policy target of
.FX Consensus Forecast
2.0%. The market is speculating that Europe’s interest rate
may have to rise much earlier than previous thought, Spot Jun 2011 Dec 2011
supporting the euro vs the greenback as the Fed is
expected to keep policy rate unchanged till year-end. USD/THB 30.90 28.30 28.00
USD/JPY 82.05 86.00 89.00
38.00 80 EUR/USD 1.37 1.30 1.31
37.50
GBP/USD 1.61 1.55 1.60
82
37.00 USD/CNY 6.60 6.45 6.30
36.50 84 USD/SGD 1.28 1.27 1.23
36.00 USD/IDR 9,039 8,900 8,800
86
35.50 USD/MYR 3.06 3.02 2.96
35.00 88 USD/PHP 44.21 42.60 41.50
1-Nov 1-Dec 1-Jan 1-Feb USD/KRW 1,117 1,090 1,050
JPY/THB (LHS) USD/JPY (RHS, inverted axis) USD/TWD 29.03 28.80 28.60
AUD/USD 1.00 0.99 0.97
USD/JPY closed at 82.07, still in range trade and likely to
remain supported in the near-term amid the uncertainties in NZD/USD 0.77 0.77 0.76
the global markets. Source: Bloomberg, KBank for USD/THB
31.30
Currency Pair Targets
31.10 Spot Jun 2011 Dec 2011
30.90
USD/THB 31.18 28.30 28.0
30.70
30.50 EUR/THB 42.38 40.0 37.0
30.30
30.10
JPY/THB 37.90 34.70 29.5
29.90 GBP/THB 49.35 47.40 43.7
29.70
29.50
CNY/THB 4.73 4.78 4.2
1-Nov 16-Nov 1-Dec 16-Dec 31-Dec 15-Jan 30-Jan AUD/THB 30.89 27.4 26.0
USD/THB CHF/THB 33.11 29.6 27.7
Source: KBank, Bloomberg
USD/THB lowered to a close of 30.90, similar to
Thursday’s level. Intraday, the pair rose to as high as 31.15 KBank NEER Index
but the baht later recovered some gains as U.S. economic
Current 97.99
data showed positive signs, and baht followed the euro and
other risky assets stronger. YTD + 5.23%
vs 52 weeks ago + 4.16%
China fixed its reference rate at a record high again today, vs 1mth ago - 2.51%
reaffirming its move towards letting the yuan appreciate
vs 1 week ago + 0.37%
against the greenback. The reference rate is at 6.6860
today vs. 6.5891 on Monday. vs 1 day ago + 0.00%
vs long term average + 10.17%
Note: NEER is constructed from the weighted average of bilateral exchange
rates of the baht via Thailand’s 21 major trading partners and trade
competitors. An increase in NEER refers to an appreciation
3
For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was
obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein.
Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
4. KBank Daily Update Feb 1, 2011
Total Return Analysis – 3 month horizon, annualized Auction results of BoT Bonds Jan 28
Yield shift (bps) -40 -30 -20 -10 0 +10 +20 +30 +40 No auctions on Jan 31st
LB113A 2.09 2.11 2.13 2.15 2.16 2.18 2.20 2.22 1.98 Bid-
Tenor Amt. Accepted
LB116A 2.70 2.61 2.51 2.42 2.32 2.23 2.13 2.04 1.69 Symbol Avg. Yield (%) coverage
(yrs) (Bt mn) Range (%)
ratio
LB11NA 3.59 3.32 3.05 2.78 2.51 2.25 1.98 1.71 1.19
CB11215A 0.04 85,000 2.080/2.143 2.130440 0.96
LB123A 4.19 3.82 3.45 3.08 2.71 2.34 1.97 1.60 0.98
Source: ThaiBMA
LB12NA 5.35 4.74 4.13 3.52 2.90 2.29 1.68 1.07 0.20
LB133A 6.02 5.28 4.54 3.80 3.06 2.32 1.59 0.85 -0.14 Auction Calendar of BoT Bonds
LB137A 6.59 5.72 4.86 4.00 3.13 2.27 1.41 0.55 -0.57 Tenor Amt.
Symbol Auction Date Maturity Date Remark
LB13OA 7.02 6.06 5.10 4.14 3.19 2.23 1.27 0.31 -0.89 (yrs) (Bt mn)
LB143A 7.38 6.36 5.33 4.31 3.29 2.26 1.24 0.22 -1.05 CB11303DA 0.08 25,000 01-Feb-11 03-Mar-11 -
LB145A 7.94 6.79 5.64 4.50 3.35 2.20 1.06 -0.09 -1.49 CB11506C 0.25 22,000 01-Feb-11 06-May-11 -
LB145B 7.93 6.79 5.64 4.49 3.35 2.20 1.06 -0.09 -1.48 CB11804B 0.50 15,000 01-Feb-11 04-Aug-11 -
LB14DA 8.74 7.40 6.07 4.74 3.40 2.07 0.74 -0.59 -2.18 CB12202A 1.00 50,000 01-Feb-11 02-Feb-12 -
LB155A 9.51 7.98 6.46 4.94 3.42 1.90 0.39 -1.13 -2.90 BOT142A 3.00 15,000 11-Feb-11 15-Feb-14 -
LB157A 9.37 7.89 6.40 4.92 3.44 1.96 0.48 -1.00 -2.73 -
BOT152A 4.00 15,000 22-Feb-11 24-Feb-11
LB15DA 10.35 8.62 6.89 5.16 3.44 1.71 -0.01 -1.74 -3.72
Source: ThaiBMA
LB167A 10.94 9.08 7.23 5.37 3.52 1.66 -0.19 -2.04 -4.15
LB16NA 11.49 9.51 7.52 5.54 3.56 1.57 -0.41 -2.39 -4.63
LB171A 11.58 9.59 7.60 5.61 3.62 1.63 -0.35 -2.34 -4.58
LB175A 12.11 9.99 7.87 5.76 3.64 1.53 -0.59 -2.70 -5.07 * Note that the MOF suspends auction of Treasury bills for two months
LB183A 13.20 10.82 8.44 6.06 3.69 1.31 -1.06 -3.44 -6.06 during January – February 2011. This is due to the large amount of Treasury
cash balance.
LB183B 12.90 10.60 8.29 5.99 3.69 1.39 -0.91 -3.22 -5.77
LB191A 13.87 11.33 8.79 6.25 3.71 1.17 -1.37 -3.91 -6.69
LB196A 14.82 12.04 9.27 6.49 3.72 0.95 -1.83 -4.60 -7.62
LB198A 14.64 11.92 9.21 6.49 3.77 1.06 -1.65 -4.37 -7.33
LB19DA 14.92 12.14 9.37 6.59 3.81 1.04 -1.73 -4.51 -7.53
LB213A 16.06 13.02 9.98 6.94 3.91 0.87 -2.16 -5.19 -8.48
LB214A 15.95 12.95 9.95 6.95 3.95 0.96 -2.04 -5.03 -8.27
LB22NA 18.04 14.55 11.05 7.56 4.07 0.58 -2.91 -6.40 -10.13
LB233A 18.11 14.61 11.11 7.61 4.11 0.62 -2.87 -6.37 -10.11
LB236A 19.55 15.69 11.83 7.97 4.12 0.26 -3.59 -7.44 -11.54
LB244A 19.67 15.79 11.91 8.03 4.16 0.28 -3.59 -7.46 -11.58
LB24DA 20.29 16.26 12.24 8.21 4.19 0.18 -3.84 -7.86 -12.12
LB267A 20.79 16.65 12.51 8.37 4.23 0.10 -4.03 -8.16 -12.54
LB283A 22.04 17.59 13.14 8.70 4.26 -0.18 -4.61 -9.04 -13.72
LB296A 23.75 18.88 14.01 9.14 4.28 -0.58 -5.44 -10.29 -15.39
LB383A 27.96 22.05 16.15 10.26 4.37 -1.52 -7.40 -13.27 -19.39
LB396A 29.28 23.05 16.82 10.60 4.39 -1.82 -8.03 -14.23 -20.67
Average 12.99 10.64 8.28 5.93 3.58 1.23 -1.12 -3.47 -6.07
Source: KBank, Bloomberg
KBank Rich – Cheap Model
30.00
20.00
10.00
0.00
-10.00
-20.00
-30.00 3 mth avg
Now
-40.00
LB296A
LB113A
LB116A
LB11NA
LB123A
LB133A
LB137A
LB145B
LB14DA
LB155A
LB15DA
LB167A
LB16NA
LB175A
LB183B
LB191A
LB196A
LB198A
LB19DA
LB213A
LB24DA
LB267A
LB283A
LB396A
Source: Bloomberg, KBank The 3-month average indicates the average differences between observed and derived yields
4
For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was
obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein.
Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
5. KBank Daily Update Feb 1, 2011
Economic News Update The Purchasing Managers’ Index fell to 52.9 from 53.9 in
December, the China Federation of Logistics and
Obama Health-Care Reform Act Ruled Purchasing said in a statement on its website. That was
Unconstitutional: U.S. President Barack Obama less than the median estimate of 53.5 in a Bloomberg
lost the second of four court challenges to his health-care News survey of 11 economists.
law as a federal judge in Florida ruled that the measure
went beyond the power of Congress to regulate commerce. Premier Wen Jiabao aims to sustain growth while
intensifying a campaign against real-estate speculation and
U.S. District Judge Roger Vinson in Pensacola declared fighting inflation that may have accelerated last month after
the entire law invalid today in a 78-page opinion in a suit storms disrupted food supplies. The World Bank estimates
brought by 26 states. He said a provision requiring that China’s economy will expand 8.7 percent this year,
Americans over 18 to obtain insurance coverage violated three times the pace of the U.S., as developing economies
the U.S Constitution. The U.S. Justice Department said it continue to outperform richer nations.
will appeal.
China’s economy expanded 9.8 percent in the fourth
Florida sued on behalf of 13 states on March 23, the day quarter from a year earlier, faster than the 9.6 percent gain
Obama signed into law the Patient Protection and in the previous three months.
Affordable Care Act, legislation intended to provide the
U.S. with almost universal health-care coverage. Seven The central bank has raised benchmark interest rates twice
states joined the suit last year, and six this year. Virginia since mid-October and pushed banks’ reserve
sued separately on March 23 and Oklahoma filed its own requirements to the highest level in more than two decades
suit on Jan. 21. to drain money from the financial system. The government
also last month expanded measures to cool the real-estate
“Regardless of how laudable its attempts may have been to market, including by raising minimum down-payment
accomplish these goals in passing the act, Congress must requirements for second-home purchases.
operate within the bounds established by the Constitution,”
Vinson, 70, wrote. “This case is not about whether the act The PMI is released by the Beijing-based logistics
is wise or unwise legislation. It is about the constitutional federation and the National Bureau of Statistics and gives
role of the federal government.” He declined to issue an an indication of manufacturing activity by surveying more
order blocking enforcement of the law. than 820 companies in 20 industries, including energy,
metallurgy, textiles, automobiles and electronics.
The ruling by Vinson, who was named to the federal bench
in 1983 by President Ronald Reagan, a Republican, would The central bank indicated in a Jan. 30 report that capital
be appealed to the U.S. Court of Appeals in Atlanta. An inflows and higher labor and resource costs may add to
appeals court in Richmond, Virginia, is already slated in inflation pressures. Tools for reining in liquidity and credit
May to hear challenges to two conflicting lower-court growth include interest rates, bill sales and bank reserve
rulings in that state, one upholding the legislation, the other requirements, the People’s Bank of China said.
invalidating part of it.
Policy makers aim to hold growth in M2, the broadest
“We strongly disagree with the court’s ruling today and measure of money supply, at about 16 percent this year.
continue to believe -- as other federal courts have found -- Last year, the actual 19.7 percent gain compared with a
that the Affordable Care Act is constitutional,” Tracy target of 17 percent. Local-currency lending totaled 7.95
Schmaler, U.S. Justice Department spokeswoman, said in trillion yuan ($1.2 trillion) in 2010, exceeding the
an e-mailed statement. “There is clear and well-established government’s 7.5 trillion yuan ceiling.
legal precedent that Congress acted within its constitutional
The latest measures to cool the property market include
authority in passing this law.”
increasing down-payment requirements for second homes
The U.S. Supreme Court may ultimately be asked to to 60 percent from 50 percent and trials of property taxes in
consider the issue. Of the four courts that have ruled on the Shanghai and Chongqing. (Source: Bloomberg)
health-care act, two found that Congress exceeded its
authority, while two didn’t. Vinson is the first to invalidate
the entire act.
“The judge has confirmed what many of us knew from the
start: Obamacare is an unprecedented and unconstitutional
infringement on the liberty of the American people,” Florida
Governor Rick Scott, a Republican, said in a statement.
(Source: Bloomberg)
Market Strategists:
Nalin Chutchotitham
China’s Manufacturing Growth Slows as Email: nalin.c@kasikornbank.com
Policy Tightens: China’s manufacturing growth Tel: 02-470-3235
slowed for a second month in January after the central
bank raised interest rates and lenders’ reserve
requirements to counter inflation and asset-bubble risks.
5
For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was
obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein.
Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
6. KBank Daily Update Feb 1, 2011
Economic Calendar
Date / Time Country Event Period Consensus Actual Prior Revised
01/31/2011 04:00 SK Business Survey- Manufacturing FEB -- 91 92 --
01/31/2011 04:00 SK Business Survey- Non-Manufacturing FEB -- 84 87 --
01/31/2011 06:00 SK Service Industry Output YoY DEC -- 2.10% 3.60% 3.80%
01/31/2011 06:00 SK Industrial Production Mfg(YoY) DEC -- 9.90% 10.60% 10.90%
01/31/2011 06:00 SK Industrial Production (MoM) DEC 2.60% 2.80% 1.40% 1.50%
01/31/2011 06:00 SK Industrial Production (YoY) DEC 9.90% 9.80% 10.40% 10.70%
01/31/2011 06:00 SK Leading Index (YoY) DEC -- 2.30% 2.60% 2.50%
01/31/2011 06:50 JN Industrial Production (MoM) DEC P 2.80% 3.10% 1.00% --
01/31/2011 06:50 JN Industrial Production YOY% DEC P 4.40% 4.60% 5.80% --
01/31/2011 09:00 TA HSBC Taiwan Manufacturing PMI JAN -- 59.8 54.7 --
01/31/2011 09:00 PH GDP (YoY) 4Q 6.00% 7.10% 6.50% 6.30%
01/31/2011 09:00 SI Unemployment Rate (sa) 4Q 2.10% 2.20% 2.10% --
01/31/2011 09:00 PH GDP sa (QoQ) 4Q 1.50% 3.00% -0.50% -0.80%
01/31/2011 09:00 SI Credit Card Bad Debts DEC -- 17.2M 13.4M --
01/31/2011 09:00 PH Annual GDP (YoY) Dec-31 7.00% 7.30% 0.90% 1.10%
01/31/2011 09:00 SI Credit Card Billings DEC -- 3205.2M 2872.2M --
01/31/2011 09:00 SI Bank Loans & Advances (YoY) DEC -- 14.70% 14.50% --
01/31/2011 11:00 JN Vehicle Production (YoY) DEC -- -5.10% -6.70% --
01/31/2011 12:00 JN Housing Starts (YoY) DEC 4.60% 7.50% 6.80% --
01/31/2011 12:00 JN Annualized Housing Starts DEC 0.859M 0.861M 0.847M --
01/31/2011 14:00 GE Retail Sales (MoM) DEC 2.00% -0.30% -2.40% -1.90%
01/31/2011 14:00 GE Retail Sales (YoY) DEC 1.10% -1.30% 2.00% 2.60%
01/31/2011 14:30 TH Total Exports YOY% DEC -- 18.60% 28.70% --
01/31/2011 14:30 TH Total Exports in US$ Million DEC -- $17220M $17584M --
01/31/2011 14:30 TH Total Imports YOY% DEC -- 8.80% 35.00% --
01/31/2011 14:30 TH Total Imports in US$ Million DEC -- $15911M $17094M --
01/31/2011 14:30 TH Total Trade Balance DEC -- $1310M $490M --
01/31/2011 14:30 TH Current Account Balance (USD) DEC $2075M $1750M $1019M --
01/31/2011 14:30 TH Overall Balance in US$ Million DEC -- $2263M $820M --
01/31/2011 14:30 TH Business Sentiment Index DEC -- 51.6 52.5 --
01/31/2011 15:00 TA GDP - Constant Prices (YoY) 4Q P 6.00% 6.48% 9.80% --
01/31/2011 17:00 EC Euro-Zone CPI Estimate (YoY) JAN 2.30% 2.40% 2.20% --
01/31/2011 20:30 US Personal Income DEC 0.40% 0.40% 0.30% 0.40%
01/31/2011 20:30 US Personal Spending DEC 0.50% 0.70% 0.40% 0.30%
01/31/2011 20:30 US PCE Core (MoM) DEC 0.10% 0.00% 0.10% --
01/31/2011 20:30 US PCE Core (YoY) DEC 0.80% 0.70% 0.80% --
01/31/2011 20:30 US PCE Deflator (YoY) DEC 1.30% 1.20% 1.00% 1.10%
01/31/2011 21:45 US Chicago Purchasing Manager JAN 64.5 68.8 66.8 --
01/31/2011 22:00 US NAPM-Milwaukee JAN -- 57 62 --
01/31/2011 22:30 US Dallas Fed Manf. Activity JAN 15 10.9 12.8 15.8
02/01/2011 06:00 SK Consumer Price Index (YoY) JAN 3.80% 4.10% 3.50% --
Source: Bloomberg
6
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