1. TO DELVE THE TEMPERATURE DISPARITY AND TRANSFORMING
HYDROLOGICAL PHENOMENA OF GHIZER RIVER BY USING SRM MODEL
NAME: JUNAID – BIN – ABBAS
REGISTRATION #: 2010 – PG – EHY – 80
DEGREE PROGRAMME: M.Sc ENGINEERING HYDROLOGY
SUPERVISOR: DR. MUHAMMAD TOUSEEF
DATE OF REGISTRATION: 24 - 08 - 2010
STATUS: FULL TIME
CENTER OF EXCELLANCE IN WATER RESOURCES ENGINEERING
UNIVERSITYOF ENGINEERING AND TECHNOLOGY, LAHORE
2013

2. PROBLEM STATEMENT
Global climate change is considered to be the prime environmental issue of 21st century
that today’s human beings are facing. According to recent scientific research, for the last five
decades, average mean temperature of adjacent areas of Karakorum ranges has increased by 0.5
0C per decade. For this reason, it is prime concern for planning to take serious steps toward
coping with challenges of climate change and environment, so that the poor of the Gilgit-
Baltistan Mountains can be hoarded from the potential threats of climate change induced natural
hazards.
Flow in the Ghizer River is continuously increasing. The upsurge in water level in
various nullahs in Gilgit-Baltistan due to increased snow melting has also raised the water level
in Ghizer River, which has inundated some areas of Gahkoch. Precipitation is projected to
increase slightly in summer and decrease in winter with significant change in annual
precipitation.
In this context it can be hypothesized that there exist linkages between climatic
parameters e.g. temperature and increased flows in Ghizer River. Further, it can also be an
important research question to investigate the relationship between climate parameters, rainfall
and snowmelt as a component of Ghizer River separately.
7.63 7.82
6.77
7.34
4.88
5.60
6.52
7.00
6.15
7.23
7.68
8.51
7.79
9.06
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
9.00
10.00
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
PERCENTAGEINCREASEOFFLOW
YEARS
PERCENTAGEINCREASEIN FLOW OF GHIZER RIVER AT
PHANDAR BASIN

3. OBJECTIVE
1. To perform snowmelt runoff simulation of Ghizer River Basin using temperature index
modeling approach.
2. To estimate the snow melt and rainfall contribution towards total flow by using SRM
model.
3. To investigate relationship between temperature (Climate change parameter) and,
snowmelt and rainfall as a components of flow.
STUDY AREA
The selected study area is Ghizer River at Phandar basin. Ghizer District is northernmost
part of the Northern Areas of Pakistan having a total area of 9,635 km². Geographically the
Ghizer district is characterized by very high snow clad mountains, alpine forests and pastures.
Glacial streams and high passes connect it to other countries. It joins with Wakhan strip on its
north-west, and China on its northern borders. On its west, there is Chitral; and on its east is
situated Gilgit. Diamer District is on its south. Gupis has been serving as a junction between
yasin and Phandar valley. It is the central place from all valleys like Phandar, yasin. poniyal etc.
The valley is located between the world greatest mountain ranges i.e. hindukush and karakarum.
The highest peak in Ghizer District is Koyo Zom (6,871 m) (Hindu Kush Range) which lies on
the boundary of Ghizer District and Chitral.

4. SNOW MELT RUNOFF MODEL (SRM)
The models based on temperature index (TI) approach, also known as degree-day models.
These models are more simplified as compared to the energy balance in form of data requirement
and computation. The temperature index models physically lump all the components of the
surface energy balance into a degree-day melt factor. The degree day melt factor is a
proportionality coefficient that calculates melt rates on the basis of air temperature alone.