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Using Antifragility in Transport Planning
- 1. The Use of Antifragility Heuristics in Transport Planning RICHARD ISTED
- 2. A Long Term Understanding of Transport
- 3. An Activity based understanding – a “Platonic” approach
- 4. The problem for Transport Models in the Long Term • People change their behavioural preferences • Travel modes and other technological features that are currently not available may be in the future • Travel modes that are currently available may become redundant • “Black Swan” events defy inductive reasoning in-built in transport models.
- 5. Defining Fragility, Resilience and Antifragility
- 6. Concavity and Convexity in responses Concavity Convexity
- 7. A simple example - investment in public transport
- 8. A case study – Which corridor to invest in? y = 29.644x3 - 178661x2 + 4E+08x - 2E+11 20000 18000 16000 14000 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 Series1 Poly. (Series1) 20000 18000 16000 14000 12000 y = -229.79x3 + 1E+06x2 - 3E+09x + 2E+12 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Series1 Poly. (Series1) South East Corridor North East Corridor South West Corridor
- 9. How long should one stick with a transport strategy?
- 10. The Use of Antifragility Heuristics in Transport Planning RICHARD ISTED – RICHARD.ISTED@JACOBS.COM www.jacobs.com | worldwide