Presentation made by Jose Falck Zepeda at Iowa State University's “Agricultural, Food, and Trade Policy” (ECON 460/550)” webinar October 28, 2020. This presentation discusses biotechnology, genetic modifications, gene editing, science and technology, innovation and economic and trade issues related to developing countries. These are related to policy, regulatory and enabling environment issues.
Falck zepeda 2020 iowa state university webinar final 10 27 2020
1. Biotechnology and
Science, Technology
and Innovation
Issues - A Global
Socio-Economics
Perspective
José Falck-Zepeda
Senior Research Fellow
International Food Policy Research
Institute (IFPRI)
Presented at Iowa State University “Agricultural,
Food, and Trade Policy” (ECON 460/550)” webinar
October 28, 2020
2. Main messages
Real potential for
Genetically Engineered (GE)
crops to benefit society
Benefits limited by the
regulatory, policy and legal
hurdles for R&D,
deployment and product
stewardship context
Innovation flows will
decrease to unacceptable
levels that will not keep up
with human development
needs…if we do not address
technology hurdles
Impact of COVID???Evidence that yield and productivity decline already started…
3. Ethical principles
that guide my
actions and
research
Justice
Benevolence
No
maleficence
Respect of
autonomy
Sustainability
4. What matters to me?
• Education, health and accessible food
• Environment and biodiversity
• Science, Technology and Innovation
• Producers’ freedom to operate and
choose
• Home country Honduras and its
people…and people in developing
countries
6. The challenge ahead
To feed 9 billion people by 2050
Would require increase in production
Higher food demands
will need to rely on
Productivity
increases
rather than
land expansion
But…no simple
answers
7. Increasing production is NOT the only option to
feed more people… rather a portfolio of options
Challenges require increasing the responsiveness of the agricultural innovation system
Increase productivity
Policies to slow
agricultural frontier
expansion
Reduce waste
Promote circular
agriculture and economy
Improve value and
product chains efficiency
Precision agriculture
Use data and knowledge
tools to boost flows
(bitcoin, tracing…)
Diet and food
consumption changes
Mitigate climate change
8. Heterogenous global agricultural growth has been
broadly driven by increased productivity
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
1971-1980 1981-1990 1991-2000 2001-2009
Averagegrowthrate(%)
Total factor productivity
Land
Irrigation
Fertilizer
Capital
Source: Nin Pratt and Yu 2012
Growth in global agricultural output
per worker
BUT total factor productivity growth
varies across countries
Average annual agricultural total factor productivity
growth, 1995-2009 (%)
9. Percent change in cereal total production in developing
countries due to technology adoption
IFPRI’s IMPACT model comparing projection to 2050 using technology vs. Baseline 2050
10. The global, regional and local food systems are still
vulnerable to long-term pressures, short-term shocks
Photos: Ngo Trung; USDA; Goyette; UNDP; Niehaus
Climate change, extreme
weather events
Agriculture-related risks, food
safety risks
Growing land, water
constraints
Persistent conflicts
The global, regional and local food system needs to play bigger role in
economic and social development
Population growth, rising
incomes, urbanization
11. There is no shortage of novel ideas in the
agricultural and life sciences
High-iron and
high-zinc rice
Apomixis in field
crops
Laser land
leveling
Super hybrid rice
C4 rice
“Prescription”
agriculture
Gene editing
Drones Remote sensing
Automation
12. Some definitions
• Biotechnology: A number of methods other than selective
breeding and sexually crossing plants to endow new
characteristics in organisms
• Genetic engineering: Introduction of DNA, RNA, or proteins
manipulated by humans to effect a change in an organism’s
genome or epigenome
• Genetically modified: Refers to an organism whose
genotype has been altered and includes alteration by
genetic engineering and nongenetic engineering methods
• Genome editing: Specific modification of the DNA of an
organism to create mutations or introduce new alleles or
new genes
Source: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2016. Genetically Engineered
Crops: Experiences and Prospects. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi:
10.17226/23395
14. Genetically Engineered (GE) Crops
Genetically engineered
crops have provided
benefits to producers
and consumers – but
results vary
01
GE approaches
include a broad
spectrum of
techniques
02
New GE technologies
exist in the regulatory
and/or the decision-
making
pipeline….facing same
issues as previous
technologies
03
16. Broader GM technology portfolio in the regulatory
pipeline
Parisi et al (2016) report concludes:
• GM events at advanced regulatory to
commercialization stages has doubled from
2008-2014
• Still relatively few crops and traits but this is
changing rapidly especially number of
stacked traits
• Increase in number of traits introduces
some issues for international trade
Source: “The Global Pipeline of GM Crops to 2020” Parisi, Tillie and Rodriguez-
Cerezo (2016) in Nature Biotechnology
Number of GM events
in field crops
Canola 41
Cotton 59
Maize 229
Rice 8
Sawflower 2
Soybeans 49
Total 388
Source: Extracted from the GM Crop Database
ISAAA, 2018
Another 112 events in the horticultural crops
17. The CGIAR – International Research Centers
Private
Sector
NARS
Academia
18. Some traits interest to developing countries
using genetic engineering at the CGIAR
• Disease
resistant cattle
and poultry
• East cost and
Trypanosomias
is resistant
cattle
ILRI
• Nutritionally
enhanced Grass
pea
ICARDA
BECA-ILRI hub
• Mosaic Virus Resistant
Yam
• Pro Vitamin A
enhanced Yam
• Rust resistant Wheat
• Banana Streak Virus
bananas
IITA
CIMMYT
• Leaf rice blast
resistance
• Waxy starch rice and
cassava
• Maize Lethal Necrosis
Maize
• Vitamin A enhanced
rice
CIAT
IRRI
CIMMYT
CONCEPT EARLY INTERMEDIATE ADVANCED (5-7 years)
19. Nutritionally enhanced crops
produced using genetic engineering
• Golden Rice – Provitamin A enhanced under
development IRRI
• Genes from daffodil and the bacterium Erwinia uredovoia
• Contribute to vitamin A intake in developing countries to
reduce blindness, stunting and malnutrition, and death
• Robust collection of studies that have examined the efficacy
and the economic impact
• Other examples
• Lycopene enhanced pineapple
• β carotene, ascorbate and folate enhanced maize
• Reduced anti-nutrient maize
• Iron, protein, reduced cyanogenic, β carotene enhanced
cassava
• Reduced gliadins (celiac disease agent), enhanced zinc and
lysine level wheat
• Omega 3 enhanced and essential fatty acid enhanced soybeans
• Resveratrol and anthocyanin (antioxidants) enhanced
tomatoes
20. Genetically Engineered Crops
Genetically engineered
crops have provided
benefits to producers
and consumers – but
results vary
01
GE approaches
include a broad
spectrum of
techniques
02
New GE technologies
exist in the regulatory
and/or the decision-
making pipeline
03
21. What do we know from the economic impact
assessment of GE crops literature to date?
• A review of 187 peer reviewed
studies
• On average GE crops have a
higher economic performance
than conventional
counterparts, with an expected
variability
• Still need to be cautious about
generalizations
Source: Smale, M.; Zambrano, P.; Gruère, G.; Falck-Zepeda, J.; Matuschke, I.; Horna, D.; Nagarajan, L.a;
Yerramareddy, I.a; Jones, H.. 2009. Measuring the economic impacts of transgenic crops in developing agriculture
during the first decade: Approaches, findings, and future directions. (Food policy review 10) Washington, D.C.:
International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)
22. An ex post case study of insect resistant Bt cotton
in the U.S.
• 1996…first year
of adoption, Bt
cotton planted in
15% of total U.S.
area
• Almost 100%
adoption in
Alabama 1st year
• Disastrous losses
1994-95 due to
budworm /
bollworm
-22 -12 -14
58 37 37
141
80 97
63
85
93
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1996
Industry
US Farmers
Consumers
Foreign Farmers
1997 1998
Industry
36%
Consumers
19%
US Farmers
45%
Total benefit estimates
(Millions US $)
Falck-Zepeda, Traxler & Nelson 1999, 2000
23. The case of Bt cotton in Mexico
1997 1998 Average
Monsanto/D&PL net revenue
per ha
70.09 70.09 70.09
Farmer change in variable
profit per ha
7.64 582.01 294.83
Bt area in Comarca Lagunera
4,500 8,000 6,250
Monsanto/D&PL total net
revenue
315,420 560,747 438,083
Total farm surplus 34,382 4,656,091 2,345,237
Monsanto/D&PL share of
surplus 90% 11% 16%
Farmer share of surplus
10% 89% 84%
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
Year
Numberofpesticideapplications
BBW
Other
Average number of chemical pesticide applications
Source: Traxler, Godoy-Avila, Falck-Zepeda and Espinoza-Arellano,2001
24. Insect resistant and herbicide tolerant GE
maize adoption impacts in Honduras
• Need to address statistical/sampling bias
in adoption – first adopters tend to be
larger, better educated and have access to
more resources
• Positive economic benefits for GE adopters
• GE maize reduces damage (29-35% higher
yield compared to the conventional
hybrid)
• GE maize has higher production costs,
higher seed price and lower pesticide use
Funded by IDRC-Canada, UC-Davis PIPRA, and by the Templeton Foundation
25. A meta-analysis
paper by Areal,
Riesgo and
Rodriguez-Cerezo
(2012)
“GE crops perform better than
their conventional
counterparts in agronomic
and economic (gross margin)
terms”
“GE crops tend to perform
better in developing countries
than in developed countries,
with Bt cotton being the most
profitable crop grown”
26. Five takeaways from the US National Academies of
Sciences, Engineering and Medicine report on GE crops
1. The best evidence suggests current GE
crops are just as safe to eat as regular
crops
2. Current GE crops have proven valuable to
many farmers — but context matters
3. Beware of simplistic arguments over
whether GE crops can "feed the world“
4. Some GEM crops have had positive
environmental effects — but watch out for
unintended effects
5. Genetic engineering is changing radically
— and regulations need to adjust
Source: - based the NASEM
2016 report and on:
27. The
BioRAPP
knowledge
platform
Objective
• Generate local economic estimations to inform policy/financial
reforms resulting in efficient, evidence-based regulatory
review of GM crops
Resources produced
• Economic models and tools
• bECON for Africa: A database of economic literature
• Training materials
• Economic evaluations
• Describing economic evaluations to non-economists
• A network of economists with enhanced experience
• 8 economic assessment case studies
• Communication and outreach materials
28. • Used for economic impact evaluation of R&D projects
• User inputted data in Excel including variable
assumptions to calculate
• net benefits to producers, consumers and government
• rates of return and internal rate of return of investments
• Simulates four market models
• Allows sensitivity analysis (Montecarlo)
Methodological Approaches
• Economic surplus (DREAMpy and
DREAM)
• Real options model
• Stochastic economic surplus
• Econometric estimations as input
to economic surplus (e.g.
examination of LS/MS surveys)
https://www.dreampy.org/
29. Countries and GM crop technologies locally selected
and analyzed in economic assessments
30. Estimated average annual net benefits by country
(millions 2018 PPP international dollars )
Ethiopia
Insect and drought tolerant
maize
65
Ghana
Nitrogen efficient rice
0.4
Ghana
Maruca resistant cowpea
3
Nigeria
Maruca resistant cowpea
32
Tanzania
Insect resistant and
drought tolerant maize
207
Tanzania
Brown streak resistant
cassava
25
Uganda
Brown streak resistant
cassava
57
Uganda
Wilt resistant banana
70
31. Internal rate of return (IRR) by country and
crop/trait
Notes: 1) Nigeria and Uganda are the average of regions included in the study, 2) estimations using DREAMpy and
DREAM.
33. Genetically Engineered Crops
Genetically engineered
crops have provided
benefits to producers
and consumers – but
results vary
01
GE approaches
include a broad
spectrum of
techniques
02
New GE technologies
exist in the regulatory
and/or the decision-
making pipeline
03
34. New Genetic
Engineering
Techniques
Offer several advantages that make
them attractive to the global public
sector
If regulated as previous GE crops,
they may face the same fate of
regulatory uncertainty and may not
reach end users
Other governance issues such as seed
systems and intellectual property
requires attention…
35. Upcoming Genetic Engineering Techniques
Techniques Examples
Nuclear genome transformation • Agrobacterium mediated
• Gene gun mediated
Plastome transformation
Gene silencing techniques • Antisense silencing
• RNA Interference(RNAi)
Transformation methods that do not
rely on tissue culture
• Floral dip
Genome editing Meganucleases
Zinc finger nucleases (ZFNs)
transcription activator-like effector
nucleases (TALENs)
Clustered regularly interspaced
palindromic repeats (CRISPR)/Cas9
nuclease system
Artificial and synthethic chromosomes
Targeted epigenetic modifications
Source: Based on data presented in the NAS Report 2016
Naturally occurring (a) and engineered (b)
CRISPR-Cas systems (Figure 3, Sander &
Joung 2014)
Source: Nishimasu et al. 2014
36. Gene editing – The evolving regulatory landscape
Source: EMBO Rep, Volume: 21, Issue: 6, First published: 19 May 2020, DOI: (10.15252/embr.202050680).
37. Gene editing caseload
by technique-
Argentina’s classification
• Tiered approach to
regulation
• Not all Gene Editing are GM
thus not subject to
regulation
• Depends on the use of
foreign DNA and whether its
permanent integration
Note: Graph courtesy of Martina Lema (2019)
38. Commercially
available gene
editing
Crop Trait Developer
Soybeans with high oleic oil Calyxt, St. Paul, MN
Soybeans with low trans fat oil Calyxt, St. Paul, MN
Canola Herbicide tolerance Cibus, Sand Diego,
CA
Corn Waxy starch Pioneer DuPont
Wheat Resistance to
powdery mildew
Chinese Academy
of Science
Mushrooms Anti-browning Penn State
University
Pigs resistant to African
Swine Fever
Roslin Institute, UK
Pigs Resistant to PRRS Roslin Institute, UK
Dairy Cattle Hornless cattle UC Davis, CA
39. Genome edited crops – A changing institutional
landscape?
Source: USDA – APHIS “Am I regulated?” Process , extracted 9/30/2020 This process was through
June 16, 2020. Replaced with the SECURE Rule’s Exemption and Confirmation Process beginning on
August 17, 2020. https://www.aphis.usda.gov/aphis/ourfocus/biotechnology/am-i-regulated
40. Genome edited crops – A changing crop
landscape?
Source: USDA – APHIS “Am I regulated?” Process, extracted 9/30/2020. This process was through June 16,
2020. Replaced with the SECURE Rule’s Exemption and Confirmation Process beginning on August 17, 2020.
https://www.aphis.usda.gov/aphis/ourfocus/biotechnology/am-i-regulated
41. Genome edited crops – A changing crop type
landscape?
Source: USDA – APHIS “Am I regulated?” Process , extracted 9/30/2020. This process was through
June 16, 2020. Replaced with the SECURE Rule’s Exemption and Confirmation Process beginning on
August 17, 2020. https://www.aphis.usda.gov/aphis/ourfocus/biotechnology/am-i-regulated
42. Genetically Engineered Crops
Genetically engineered
crops have provided
benefits to producers
and consumers – but
results vary
01
GE approaches
include a broad
spectrum of
techniques
02
New GE technologies
exist in the regulatory
and/or the decision-
making pipeline…
facing same issues?
03
43. A state of policy and regulatory
affairs for GE and advanced
biotechnology crops
Increasingly complex policy and regulatory
landscape
Devise innovative strategies to ensure
deployment of valuable public, private and
multi-sector technologies
Need to address multiple governance issues
and the realities of biotechnology innovation
and R&D investments in Africa and
developing countries
R&D investments
PPP alliances
technology
delivery
Intellectual
property
Seed registration
Trade
Policy and
regulatory
environment
outside agriculture
Consumer and
social contract
issues
Biosafety and
products
stewardship
44. Realities of agricultural biotechnology R&D and
innovation capacity
• Africa
• Biotechnology capacity is at this time, seriously deficient, will require innovation
investments
• Latin America
• Advanced capacity - Brazil, Argentina, Mexico
• Intermediate capacity - Colombia, Chile, Costa Rica, Peru and Uruguay
• Rest of LAC - poor innovation capacity for conventional and almost null capacity for
modern biotechnology
• Asia
• Advanced capacity – China (Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan in medical/industrial apps)
• Intermediate capacity – India, Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand
• Rest of Asia - poor innovation capacity for conventional and almost null capacity for
modern biotechnology
46. R&D investment status in select developing countries
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
Guinea-Bissau
Madagascar
Guatemala
ElSalvador
Honduras
Ecuador
Togo
Congo,Dem.Rep.
Niger
Peru
Nicaragua
Rwanda
Egypt
Mali
Mali
Mauritania
Uganda
China
Belize
Panama
Colombia
Jamaica
Bolivia
Mexico
CostaRica
Argentina
Uruguay
Chile
Brazil
SouthAfrica
Source: ASTI, 2019
Source: Nin-Pratt 2016
Maputo 2003 Declaration: Invest 10% of their national agricultural
budget improving productivity
R&D investment intensity index
47. Timeline and estimated R&D and biosafety
regulatory costs for a GE crop (millions US$)
Year Early
Discovery
Late
Discovery
Construct
optimisati
on
Commercial event
production &
selection
Introgression
breeding & wide
area testing
Regulatory
science
Registration
& Regulatory
affairs
R&D Total Regulatory science
+ Registration and
Regulatory Affairs
Total
1 15.9 0.0
2 13.9 0.0
3 8.8 0.0
4 10.4 0.0
5 14.4 4.2
6 8.8 4.6
7 12.8 4.6
8 8.0 6.0
9 8.0 3.2
10 0.0 3.2
11 0.0 3.2
12 0.0 3.2
13 0.0 3.2
Total 17.6 13.4 28.3 13.6 28.0 17.9 17.2 100.9 35.1
Source: Based upon Phillips McDougal 2011
48. The Future
A new, knowledge-
based
smart global food
system
• Departing from a focus on a narrow set of
objectives – think innovation convergence
• Advancing scientific frontiers—investing in
R&D
• Designing better policies—evidence-based
decision-making
• Integrating gender and ensuring equity—in
both policy and technology design
• Linking to health and nutrition—yield gain
is not enough
• Ensuring sustainability—synergies in
agriculture and environment to address
climate change challenges
• Attuned to changes in consumer demands
49. Conclusions
• GM crops can provide positive economic benefits if they perform as
expected
• Potential benefits are contingent on the enabling environment in which
GM crops operate
• A potential major constraint is the innovative capacity in developing
countries
• Ensure that decision/policy makers understand ex ante economic
assessment concepts, limitations, and caveats of to secure impacts
Communication/outreach/capacity enhancement approaches
need to address and/or incorporate all the above…
50. Thank you!!!!
Photos courtesy of Ricepedia, Joshua Masinde/CIMMYT, African Business Insight, Roots Tubers
and Banana Research Program CGIAR
51. José Benjamin Falck-
Zepeda
Senior Research Fellow
IFPRI
1201 Eye Street NW
Washington, DC 20005-3915
USA
j.falck-zepeda@cgiar.org
Brief bio/pubs:
http://www.ifpri.org/staffprofile/jose-falck-
zepeda
Personal site:
https://jfalck3.wixsite.com/mysite
Follow me on Twitter: @josefalck