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Meetup presentation system dynamics and systems thinking in agile development -cleaned

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Kanban Coaching Exchange (KCE) presentation on system dynamic and systems thinking

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Meetup presentation system dynamics and systems thinking in agile development -cleaned

  1. 1. © PA Knowledge Limited 2016 1 DR DOLITTLE AND THE DIESEL ENGINE Kanban, System Dynamics and Systems Thinking John McGinty June 9th
  2. 2. © PA Knowledge Limited 2016 2 Three areas I’m aiming to cover Kanban in Agile Development My Experience Systems Dynamics Basics and why it’s important Systems Thinking Why thinking is harder than you think
  3. 3. © PA Knowledge Limited 2016 3 Our Story - Dr Dolittle and the Diesel Engine Dr Dolittle A man that could understand different views of the world having travelled and talked to a variety of creatures. One such creature had a fundamental understanding of control and movement – flow (Pushmepullyou). Hugh Lofting 1920 Understanding different people’s views along with what drivers systems allows for better system design and more useful outcomes. Dr Dolittle – he could talk to the animals Pushmepullyou – well coordinated Take away 1. Why Kanban systems are powerful 2. Why System Dynamics is difficult but important 3. Why Systems Thinking helps people organise themselves into learning teams
  4. 4. © PA Knowledge Limited 2016 4 First a Game
  5. 5. © PA Knowledge Limited 2016 5 Game – Meal Deal Race Background – It’s half time at the England Vs Germany in the final of European Cup. FIFA and UEFA have contracted 2 burger joints to feed the hungry fans with the joint that can make the most money at half time becoming the sole contractor for the World Cup. Objective – make as many burger meal deals which consist of 4 items (red, blue, green, yellow balls) in 5 minutes or until you run out of stock Rules – 1. Meals must be served in a tray. 2. Only 1 unique item per tray to a max of 4. 3. Trays must stay at the front. 4. Customers can return orders which means ingredients must to recycled 3. 4 roles – 1. Builder, 2. Transport 3. Server 4. Manager (they will deal with any problems) Scoring: 4 items = 12 points – mix of colours 3 items = 7 points 2 items = 5 points 1 item = 2 points Winner – gets first go at the pizza! 1. Form two teams – 1 side of the room against the other? NOTE – there may well be interference, change to the rules during the time
  6. 6. © PA Knowledge Limited 2016 6 Restaurant layout Serving Area Serving Area Transport Area Construction Area Transport Area Construction Area Direction of trays Direction of food
  7. 7. © PA Knowledge Limited 2016 7 Kanban Dynamics – The Basics and pull based dynamics and feedback Pull-based demand – feedback to control 1. Market demand – ticket with details created 2. Machine setup 3. Construction 4. QA and Delivery 5. Sale X Y Raw Materials & Construction Storage/Display Consumer Demand TicketTicket
  8. 8. © PA Knowledge Limited 2016 8 In all product development environments there is work coming through stages (pipeline). Kanban looks to visualise the amount and direction of work. X Y Construction Consumer Demand TicketTicket AND… Sandbox SIT UAT Testing PROD Testing Z X Y Ticket Environments Ticket Ticket Ticket Ticket In Agile the backlog tickets move from left to right through the pipeline. As the work goes through the each stage feedback on the work is produced which can change the original product and the speed it moves through the pipeline. Ticket Z X Y Operations
  9. 9. © PA Knowledge Limited 2016 9 In software production there is poor visibility on the rate and quality of the ppipeline. Cost delay is largely invisible and constraints into stages are low Product Backlog Refinement Sprint Planning Sprint Backlog Product Backlog To Do Consumer Demand In Progress Testing/QA DONE 1 2 1.Nothing stopping multiple tickets being worked on at same time (entry). 2. Not much stopping work going into QA (exit) The value (stock) and the speed of movement (flow) is not always clear QUEUES ARE INVISIBLE COMPARED TO PHYSICAL SYSTEMS! System Dynamics provides measurement
  10. 10. © PA Knowledge Limited 2016 10 Strategic Production Flow: Ford, Ohno, Forrester and Porter Henry Ford Taiichi Ohno M Porter • Father of mass production • Cheapest processes • Visualised WIP • Vertical and horizontal integration • Father of JIT/Lean • Quality at heart of production – waste reduction • Control of throughput • Pull based demand • Father of Modern Business Strategy • Value Chain • 5 Forces of competition • Generic competition • Father of System Dynamics • Scientific theory on flow value • Foundation of Systems ThinkingJ Forrester Control of mass production Control of demand and waste Creating value at each stage Control of value at speed
  11. 11. © PA Knowledge Limited 2016 11 System Dynamics – Stock, Flow and Feedback - Visualising and Calculating production by measuring value and speed of change Flow – the speed stock moves through a stage Stock – measure of a unit in a given stage Example • Money in a bank • Value of shares • Value of stock - WIP • Software code? Example • Money spent in a month • Value of shares over a day • Stock sold at Xmas • Features in a release? Flow of stock through the system helps to prioritise work as it relates to value and forecast Allows a Unit of measure of value to be created Container – Gated entry. Production = workstation Software = Environment
  12. 12. © PA Knowledge Limited 2016 12 Feedback Loops – affect the stock value and flow into, within and out of a container Feedback loops are anything that changes the state of stock or the flow rate Positive Feedback – amplifies the current state - Feedback on a speaker Negative Feedback – reduces the current state to a medium level - Thermostat Money and Feedback Loops +ve feedback Monetary Interest – more money -ve feedback Inflation – less spending power AND More money = Less value
  13. 13. © PA Knowledge Limited 2016 13 #EPICFAIL – Positive Feedback loops can lead to runaway systems and chain reactions producing unwanted and devastating system failures Diesel Engine Positive Feedback - Add oil No negative feedback or constraint Other examples – Nuclear Power Stations BIG ENGINES Save – 3 Mile Island Fail - Chernobyl Diesel Engine 1. Engine burns oil + diesel 2. Drives the engine harder 3. Drawing in more fuel Chernobyl 1.Steam voids reduced water absorbing neutrons 2. Neutrons increased core power output 3. More steam voids created
  14. 14. © PA Knowledge Limited 2016 14 Systems are made up of multiple connected processes/containers. The number of interfaces, speed of data, types of data make this very complex SYSTEM 1 SYSTEM 1 SYSTEM 2SYSTEM 3 4 SYSTEM The more systems, with their internal stocks, flows and feedback loops the more complex the system dynamics. These can be controlled using computer based systems e.g. Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) software. The running of these internal systems are crucial. The more complex the internal systems the more difficult to run software changes through it resulting in very poor delivery of new products/changes.
  15. 15. © PA Knowledge Limited 2016 15 World is becoming more connected, complex and competitive – Systems Thinking looks to put a level of understanding together on how it works Systems Thinking: Understanding Environment Dynamics • Adaptive companies • Thought-Leadership • Experiment based • Outward looking Opportunity Opportunity System Dynamics: Understanding Internal Stocks and Flows • Flow of value (cash) into business • Setup and Load of Work • Priority of work • Flexibility of setup • Learning organisation (Senge – 5th Discipline)
  16. 16. © PA Knowledge Limited 2016 16 There are many ways of viewing and a problem and trying to solve it – types of thinking LINEAR Hypothesis CAUSAL That did that therefore .. REDUCTIONIST Simplify HOLISTIC All parts Multiple/Partial Views Perspectives Systemic and Systematic Systems Many systems Open Vs Closed Loop Fundamental Attribution Error Attributional Bias Group Think Societal behaviour Level of AnalysisDetail Generic Models, views and position to help thinking
  17. 17. © PA Knowledge Limited 2016 17 Using causal diagrams the connections and relationships can be model which can be tested, changed and tested again to understand and improve returns Development TestingIdeas Operations More ideas > More work (New prod ideas) 1 More Dev > More Test (testing work and value) 2 More Test > Less Dev (rework, edge cases) 3 More Test > More Operations (release time) 4 6 More Ops > Less Ops (Uptime) 5 More Ops > More Idea(Uptime)6 Causal diagram of software development A team that involves everyone involved in the system – the business is needed to understand the stock, flow and feedback loops. Crucially this means not just IT personnel in IT departments; marketing, finance, consumers etc. To aid flow DevOps culture is very helpful to control constraints and bottlenecks.
  18. 18. © PA Knowledge Limited 2016 18 PA is supporting complex businesses gain control of their internal systems using Agile, Systems Dynamics and Systems Thinking to deliver large scale change. Scaled Agile SAFe PDS Managing change DevOps Coaching New Products Agile Coaching Kanban Coaching Agile System Dynamics Systems Thinking Innovation
  19. 19. © PA Knowledge Limited 2016 19 Take away 1. Kanban is a vital tool and approach to software delivery to improve visibility and demand 2. Measurement on the work in progress (WIP) needs to be measured through the journey including additional WIP that affects delivery over many cycles. 3. Measurement of the flow of WIP through development needs to be recorded and forecast to manage demand (feedback loops). 4. Systems outside the development cycle need to be considered as they will provide further feedback loops and opportunities
  20. 20. © PA Knowledge Limited 2016 20