2. CAN MANKIND ADAPT TO THE
CHANGES IN ENVIRONMENT
CAUSED BY GLOBAL CLIMATE
CHANGE?
WILL MANKIND BE WISE ENOUGH
TO PROTECT OUR PLANET FOR
FUTURE GENERATIONS?
There are no easy answers to these questions, time for action is
short, and our lifestyles must change. At issue is no less than the
survival of our civilization.
3. SOCIAL
CHALLENGES
The fundamental demographic disparity between the
developed and the developing nations presents extremely difficult
cultural, technical and moral challenges to any attempt to manage
global climate change. For example, the International Energy
Agency reports(1.4) that over 1.3 billion people, or 18% of the worlds
population, do not have access to electricity and 2.6 billion rely on
primitive biomass for cooking and heating; with dire economic,
health, and environmental impacts.
4. • Do the 1.2 billion people who enjoy the benefits of living in a developed nation have the moral right
to deny the 5.4 billion citizens of developing nations the health and economic benefits of
industrialization and the required consumption of energy?
• Do the developed nations have the moral right to deny 25% of the world's population access to
such basic modern technologies as electricity?Can we resolve the environmental impacts of
electricity production and distribution throughout the planet?
• Is it in the interest of both the developing and the developed nations for the developed nations to
provide family planning assistance to the developing nations. Do the developed nations have the
moral responsibility to do so?
• Economic growth requires a reliable supply of abundant energy. In 1998 the per capita emission of
carbon dioxide in developed nations was approximately 3.5 metric tons while in the developing
nations it was only 0.58 metric tons(5.6). A 2007 study(6.7) showed that since 2000 carbon dioxide
emissions have grown faster than the highest of the scenarios developed by the Intergovernmental
Panel on ClimateChange (IPCC). Do we have the time, and wisdom to lower the disparity between
the developed and developing nations while reducing global carbon dioxide emissions?
5. • As large populations become displaced by the effects of climate change (lack of fresh-water, failing
agriculture, lack of livable habitat, sea-level change, abrupt climate change) do we have the wisdom
and time to provide for an increasing number of climatic refugees? How do we protect resident
populations from the possibility of infectious diseases carried by climatic refugees?
• Do we have the wisdom to prevent societal breakdowns and warfare over dwindling water supplies,
food, livable habitat or other resources?
6. ENVIRONMENTAL
CHALLENGES
The biological components of our environment have evolved in harmony with the physical and climatic surroundings.
The presence, characteristics, structure and behavior of both individual organisms and co-assemblages, or communities, of
organisms are largely determined by climate.The ability of natural communities to adapt to changing climate, and nature of
community change is of utmost importance to the survival of man.
As discussed in "Currents" a change in the air-sea current system can result in significant changes in regional climates. Regional
climates shifts may include temperature extremes, averages and seasons; while precipitation amounts, intensities and seasonal
distribution may be altered along with wind intensities and patterns. Generally we can expect to experience greater variability,
and an increase in violent, or extreme, weather events.The impact of regional climate changes is extraordinarily complex and has
received little attention. While a warming environment might be considered beneficial, there will be substantial negative impacts
upon our civilization. Economics, agriculture, infrastructure, health and "quality of life" will be effected in a largely unknown
manner. Do we have the means, will, and wisdom to determine the potential impacts of regional climate change, and to prepare
for them?
7. The landscape, or vegetation, that surrounds us has both evolved and migrated in response to the
stresses of past climatic changes.The fossil records show us species that no longer exist, and species
that now only exist in other locations.The actual migration rates of plants largely unknown, but are
obviously slower than that of animals and vary by species. A number of factors would effect the
migration rate of a plant species, including age to reproduction, and means of seed dissemination.
Additionally, plant seeds often require specific conditions for germination and growth.Thus the ability
of plants to migrate in response to a rapidly changing climate can only be a source of speculation at
this time. In addition to supporting such human activities and forestry and agriculture, the landscape
is also habitat for both wildlife, including disease vectors. Historically, human life has been closely tied
to the landscape; do we have the capability to adapt our cultures, economies and life styles to
changing landscapes?
8. The ability of a biological community to adapt to a changing climate requires a flexibility, or plasticity,
requires genetic diversity and a variety of species, collectively termed "biodiversity".World-wide
governments and the scientific community recognizesTheWorld Conservation Union's (ICUN) "Red List
ofThreatened Species" as the ultimate authority.The 2007 List was recently released with these
words: "Life on Earth is disappearing fast and will continue to do so unless urgent action is taken.There
are now 41,415 species on the IUCN Red List and 16,306 of them are threatened with extinction, up
from 16,118 last year".While climate induced stress is not the major cause of all extinction, the IUCN
states that: "99% of threatened species are at risk from human activities". Do we have the will to
reduce this loss of biodiversity that will be required for our natural surroundings to adapt to climate
change?
The loss of biodiversity includes the loss of wildlife. Perhaps nowhere is this loss more acute, and its
importance to mankind greater, than in the oceans. Ocean temperatures, current patterns, salinity,
and acidity all impact aquatic life, and each of these factors is being altered by the increase in
atmosphericCO2.
9. The threat of climate change to the worlds fisheries, and thus the nourishment of millions of people is
enormous. As the increase of ocean temperatures and acidity will continue until the CO2 levels in both
the atmosphere and the oceans stabilize, maintenance of fishery resources appears highly unlikely. Do
we have the will and capacity to replace the economic consequences due to the loss of the fishery
industry, and to provide nutrition to those who depended upon the resource?
World-wide, agriculturists , foresters, gardeners and bee-keepers are observing changes in growing
seasons, and species responses to a changing environment.
we have the will, or capability to conserve fresh water, and distribute it to areas of shortage?Will, and
can we accommodate drought refugees? Do we have the will, and capability to provide food, health
care and other needed aid to drought stricken regions of the world? Do we have the will and capabilities
to prevent "water wars"?
10. ENERGY
CHALLENGES
It is indisputable that human combustion of fossil fuels for energy is causing global climate change that threatens
the very survival of our civilization. It is equally indisputable that our civilization is dependent upon cheap, reliable, and
widely distributed energy for both mobile and stationary utilization.The obvious conclusion would be to decrease our
reliance upon fossil fuels, and to seek energy from alternate sources. But neither solution is as simple, nor effective, as it
appears.
Conservation of resources is a laudable objective.
While consumer spending is an important component of the economy, conservation of natural resources is plain good sense,
and if done properly is good business. However, conservation and a reduction in the emission of greenhouse gases will not
reduce global warming nor even reduce the increase of global warming. All that conservation can accomplish is a reduction
in how rapidly global warming will increase.As shown in the carbon dioxide article, even if we reduceCO2 emissions to 1990
levels, approximately a 30% reduction, we would still be increasing the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere by about
5,500,000,000 metric tons per year. And as also shown in the carbon dioxide article if we could manage to eliminate
CO2 emissions global, temperatures would continue to increase until stabilizing at some higher level in a few centuries.
11. Hydro, nuclear, solar and wind are currently the only alternate, non-carbon fuels that appear viable
and each has severe limitations. Even with 50 years of experience with nuclear power, we do not have a
means of disposing of the highly radioactive waste products, safety concerns remain, and depending
upon whom is doing the calculating, economic viability remains questionable.While nuclear power has
been utilized to power surface vessels and submarines, in addition to producing electricity, its
adaptation to powering surface vehicles or aircraft is highly speculative.
Hydro and wind are suited only to electricity production, and facilities are restricted to specific
locations. Solar can produce both heat and electricity, but again, installations are relatively restricted to
high-solar location, and the energy source is diffuse, lowering efficiency. Interestingly, hydro, wind and
solar are also sensitive to climate change.
12. In the evaluation of alternate energies, we need a means of measuring the energy/carbon costs and benefits
of the entire production, distribution, operation and disposal life-cycle. For example, the heavy batteries of
hybrid vehicles use fossil fuels in their manufacture and delivery to consumers.These exotic nickel-metal
hydride batteries will eventually need replacement and special disposal procedures.We have not yet faced the
widespread replacement of the first generation of hybrids, but there are estimates that the process will negate
any energy and emission benefits achieved during the operation of the vehicle. Likewise, the disposal of spent
uranium from nuclear power plants remains unsolved, and thus an unknown energy/carbon cost.
Fluorescent light bulbs consume considerably less electricity per unit of light than incandescent bulbs.
However, fluorescent bulbs contain mercury, a hazardous substance, and legally require special disposal
procedures to recover the mercury. Increasingly popular Compact Fluorescent Lamps are commonly
manufactured in China, a country notorious for .
"dirty" power production and highCO2 emissions.The carbon cost of manufacture and of shipping from China
to the consumer must be included in any consideration of energy "savings". Again, we need a system of total
life-cycle carbon accounting to make an accurate and honest appraisal of any purported energy savings.
13. NATIONAL
CHALLENGES
Climate change is real, the actions of mankind are the origin of climate change, and there is no
know way to reverse climate change - we can only hope to slow the rate of change for the next several
thousand years.These basic truths must be accepted by nations and form the basis for national policy.
Secondly, national policies must accept that climate change is global in its scope, global in its
causes, and global in its mitigation. No one country can resolve the problem, nor can any country avoid
it. If the human civilization is to survive as we know it, all nations must fully and freely cooperate.The
alternative to rapidly developing means of open international cooperation and assistance is for the
nations to turn themselves into armed fortress to protect their resources and prevent immigration of
displaced climatic refugees. Inevitably, this approach would lead to global warfare and destruction, and
a radically altered environment.
14. And, thirdly national policies must accept that there is no one solution that will fit all nations, rather
entirely different approaches will be required in different regions and nations. For example, the
developed nations must eliminate their dependence upon fossil fuels while maintaining their quality of
life, while developing nations must forgo the use of fossil fuels while attempting to meet the natural
aspirations of their citizens for an improved quality of life. It would appear obvious that an international
sharing of resources, technologies and expertise will be required.
Can all nations set aside regional, political, historical, cultural and religious differences and cooperate in
the resolution and survival of Global ClimateChange? If not, human civilization is surely toast.
15. INDIVIDUAL
CHALLENGESThe warming planet Earth needs our help! The magnitude of Global ClimateChange is so great
that it might appear that any individual actions will be inconsequential, and to some extent that is quite
true. However acting collectively much can be accomplished. Individually, we should:
16. • Educate ourselves.Only by becoming, and staying, well informed can we appreciate the problem
and undertake meaningful action in our daily lives. Attend lectures or classes and attend local
climate change events. Read, there are many excellent books at your book stores, and in your local
libraries. The internet has a great deal of excellent information especially on University and
government agency sites.
• Teach others.Teach a child about our dependence upon a clean environment and a stable climate
for the well-being of mankind. Teach others by your example.
• Act. The most important thing that you can do is to contact your local and national leaders. Let
them know that climate change, and environmental protection, is important to you. Ask them
where they stand on climate change, and what they are doing about it. Encourage their support of
climate change and environmental protection legislation. Write them, call them, or send an
email. This is the single most important action that you can take; far more effective than some
“green” gesture such as screwing in a light bulb. And then, contact them again. Make the 22nd of
each month a "Climate Day" and contact a member of your government. It doesn't take much time,
it costs little, and it is far more effective that any other action! You owe it to your children,
grandchildren and our planet. And, you will feel good about doing it.
17. • Conserve.A well insulated home, saving fuel and recycling is always wise. Collectively it may have
some impact on global climate change, and it is a way of life that we should adopt and teach our
children.
• Be a careful consumer.Try to buy products that have a low energy requirement during their
manufacture, use and disposal; and/or were produced locally. Be careful - there will always be
someone trying to make a buck off of global warming.
• Become Involved. Demand action from your local, regional and national politicians, and hold them
accountable. Rather than spending your time engaging in token symbols of "greenness", such as
changing light bulbs, spend the time contacting your leaders and urging effective action at the
national level.
• Support high-quality science education. A firm foundation of science, especially physics, is
required to unravel the complexities of global warming; while math and engineering expertise will be
required to develop new and innovative alternate energy sources.
• Oppose development of "dirty" energy facilities. It is far better to leave coal and oil in the ground
than attempt to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.
18. • Think globally.Climate change is a global problem with only global solutions.We must
think beyond our national interests, and act in the best interests of mankind.