1. THE FUTURE OF FOOD & NUTRITION ACCESS:
DRIVERS, TRENDS, AND OPPORTUNITIES
August 2021
By Maria Gilfoyle
CONFIDENTIAL 1
2. 2
What is food
insecurity?
The state of being without reliable
access to sufficient quality of
affordable, nutritious food.
Low quality diets result in both
malnutrition and rising levels of
obesity. Close to 46% of adults and
56% of children in the U.S. have
poor-quality diets due to lack of
nutrition education and food
infrastructure.1
The Global food supply chain:
The global food supply chain connects farmers, food scientists, storage
facilities, brands, grocery stores, and consumers with food that is safe,
nutritious, and reliable. Technology is used to develop new foods and
create infrastructure to allocate food to consumers.
Global Food Production & Population:
At a global level, solutions to prevent food insecurity are critically
important because global population growth means food production
needs to increase as much as 70% by 2050.2
Currently-existing food production systems will be unable to produce the
necessary amount of food to guarantee food security by 2050. Climate
change will impose a further unknown obstacles on current global food
production systems. To properly nourish the population, innovative
solutions are a necessity for sustainable food production.3
Farmers
Food
Scientists
Storage
Facilities
Brands
Grocery
Stores
Consumers
1. INC42
2. FAO
3. GSB
3. 3
The food and nutrition market is huge...
The market can be broken down into supply chain, logistics, and consumer-facing food products.
Food Tech Opportunity & Market:
● The global food system accounts for 10% of the world’s GDP and employs 1.5B people.1
● The global food logistics market was valued at $100B in 2018 and is projected to reach $162B by 2024, expanding at a CAGR
of 8.3% till 2024.2
● The past year showed foodtech is not just recession-proof, but it is also pandemic-proof.3
Nutrition Opportunity:
● Close to 46% of adults and 56% of children in the United States have an overall poor-quality diet.4
● By 2050, the world will have 3 billion more mouths to feed than it does today and demand for food will rise by 70%. More of
those people will live in cities, further from traditional sources of rural farms.5
● Poverty contributes to food purchasing decisions. Fresh food is not only more expensive, but requires more resources, time to
cook, and can be preserved for fewer days.6
1. World Bank
2. Research and Markets
3. Pitchbook
4. INC42
5. FAO
6. NYTimes
4. 4
Producers Processors Distributors Consumers Regulators
Responsibilities:
Challenges:
Farmers, ranchers,
research and
development labs
Margins, access to
capital, regulator and
legal compliance,
climate change, strategy
and implementation.
Processing and
manufacturing,
butchering, sales
Achieving economies of
scale, supply chain
strategy
Placing in retail stores
and distributing product
Supply chain
management, food safety,
transparency, and
traceability
Grocery shopping,
consuming, eating
Price, access, food
availability, food safety,
health and nutrition,
food quality, food
sustainability
Setting policy, public
health and safety
Food access and
availability, food safety,
human nutrition, health
and wellness, global
food carbon footprint
The food value chain consists of producers, processors, distributors, consumers, and regulators. In the US, about 2M farms produce
agricultural products for processing via more than 36,000 plants in the food and beverage industry. Approximately 16,500 companies
sell food. In 2020, $1.69T was spent on the total food expenditures by consumers, government entities, and businesses in the U.S., a
decline from $1.79T in 2019, partly due to the Covid-19 pandemic that disrupted food consumption.1
1. USDA
Food Value Chain
5. 5
Food Insecurity & Covid-19
Due to the pandemic, more than 42 million people in
the U.S. have experienced food insecurity, and most of
these people are families that already faced hunger
challenges. This is a drastic increase from 2019 when
more than 35 million people in the US experienced
hunger.1
The rates of food insecurity are even higher for African
American, Latino, and Native American families because
of systemic racial injustice. Undernourishment is closely
linked with poverty, inequalities, and social exclusion. This
was amplified during the pandemic.3
Cities and urbanization increases
supply chain complexity to move food
from farm to table. In 2020, 83% of the
U.S. population lived in metropolitan
areas. Increased complexity results in
higher costs for consumers.2
Access to healthy food has become a
luxury. A healthy diet costs $2,000 a year
more than an unhealthy one.6
One study concluded that food insecurity costs the
health system an additional $53 billion per year in the
United States.4
Poor nutrition earlier in a person’s life
results in disease risks later in life.5
1. Feeding America
2. Satista
3. Feeding America
4. CDC
5. UN
6. Avra
6. 6
Industry challenges connected to nutrition access and food insecurity...
Rapid population growth
and urbanization
● Global population growth means food production needs to increase by 70% by 2050.
● Urbanization is associated with the demand for convenient and “luxury” foods. This results in food being served further
away from the farm and increased demand for energy-intensive production and transportation.1
The rise of megacities makes food supply chains increasingly complex to manage and expensive to move food from farm to table.
Food waste & recycling
● Since the 1960s, global growth in agricultural production has outpaced population increase. Food systems are already
exceeding planetary boundaries for key resources and are resulting in food loss and waste.2
● More than one-third of global-produced food is wasted. In the U.S. food waste is between 30-40% and results in 6% of
global greenhouse gas emissions.2
While not all food loss can be avoided, more effective management of food produced can result in lower prices and more access to
nutrition for consumers.
Distributing systems, supply
chain and demand
● Four processors - Tyson Foods, Cargill, National Beef, and JBS - account for 80% of the beef market and are currently
under antitrust investigation.3
This heavily consolidated system resulted in a bottleneck during Covid-19, when 18 out of approximately 50 processing plants in
the US closed in April 2020, impacting more than one-third of the US’s beef and pork supply.
Physical and mental health
linked to nutrition
● Unhealthy diets impact one-third of the medical system. Type II diabetes, obesity, heart disease, strokes, and cancers are
caused by a gene mutation that is often linked to a network of biological dysfunction. Food can result in a biological
dysfunction if a diet lacks balanced nutrition.
● 80% of the immune system is contained in the gastrointestinal system, so immunity could be linked to digestive health.4
There is a strong link between diets low in vegetables and obesity and diabetes.
Changing consumer
preferences
● Milk-alternative company Oatly announced it was going public at a $10B valuation.5
● Customers are favoring less environmentally-damaging food options if they taste like animal-based versions.
● E-comm channel represents 10-15% of total grocery spending, increasing fivefold in April 2020. This created challenges
associated with last-minute delivery. Instacart hired >300,000 more people to navigate new demand due to covid-19.
Plant-based meats have increased in sales as more consumers become health and climate conscious.
1 FAO
2. UN
3. Hcn
4. Taking Charge
5. Axios
6. Techcrunch
7. 7
Public companies’ innovation priorities
● Increasing nutrition
education with
“Nutri-score” on
packaging.
● Increasing plant-based
options for climate
concerned consumer.
● Nutrition specifically for
children by placing
plant-based fibers in foods
and reducing salt and
sugar.
● Farmer living conditions
are often poor.
● Food insecurity starting
with farmers. During
Covid-19 1 in 5 farmers
remained unable to
consume adequate diets.
● Food production and
waste with a growing
population.
● Plant science and
ingredient innovation.
● Solve climate change
from a food perspective.
● Improve farmer
livelihood.
● Address food security
and nutrition.
● Works with food
entrepreneurs to meet
needs for local
communities and invests
in their start-ups.
● Has a social venture
capital arm that
invests in seed to
growth stage
companies that are
addressing recycling,
agricultural
diversification,
marginalized
communities, and
social challenges
related to food.
8. 8
Food waste is top of mind for corporations
News mentions of “food waste,” 2016-2021 YTD (as of 6/30/2021)1
“War on waste continues
as UK hits new record for
surplus food distribution.”
June 25, 2021
1. CBInsights
9. 9
·
● As of June 2021, suppliers, distributors, and other food-related tech startups had raised more than $16B worldwide, 86% of the total
raised in 2020.1
● In Q2’21, early-share funding accounted for a larger share of overall funding compared to the previous quarter, with 62% of deals
being seed or Series A, up from 46% last quarter.
● Alternative protein funding continued at a record pace with H1’21 seeing more than 3.5x the amount of funding as the entirety of
2020.2
● Key corporations and conglomerates in the space have teams focused on M&A to improve sustainability, farming technology,
logistics, health, and nutrition.3
Investment Ecosystem
1. Pitchbook
2. CBInsights
3. Pitchbook
10. 10
Nutrition & waste
To ensure a healthy future for both people
and the planet, the growing population must
be fed in a manner that is sustainable for the
planet.
Food waste results in greenhouse gasses,
increased cost of fresh produce, and higher
prices for produce results in unaffordable
healthy diets for Americans.
Solutions:
1. Yield forecasting agtech
2. AI/ML analytics forecasting
3. Food repurposing
4. Supply chain management tech
Food deserts & nutrition access Nutrition & education
Food deserts are areas with low
availability of healthy foods, which cause
unhealthy eating. Food deserts are a
result of city mapping and infrastructure
planning and are linked to low-income
and majority BIPOC areas, which further
drive inequality.
Solutions:
1. Urban gardening
2. Vertical farming
3. Supply-and-demand logistics
4. Meal and grocery delivery apps
and systems
People need to be educated to make
healthy food decisions. Studies show
consumer habits are hard to change.
Even when fresh produce was available
in a food desert, consumers did not
change shopping habits. Access to
nutritious food needs to be coupled with
nutrition education.
Solutions:
1. Nutrition education
2. Food engineering
3. Highly-delicious snacks that are
packed with healthy nutrition
from fruits and vegetables
Thesis:
To increase access to nutrition, food waste needs to be reduced, so fresh produce can become more
affordable for Americans. Access to healthy food needs to be coupled with education, so consumers can
make decisions that are better for their health and the environment.
12. 12
Poor nutrition results in mental health challenges, obesity, and malnutrition...
Problems:
Solutions:
Drivers:
Challenge:
The food people often crave - ice cream, pizza, hamburgers - impact both physical and mental health. Numerous studies show that sugar-laden
and high-fat foods are linked to depression and anxiety. Malnutrition is a physical state of unbalanced nutrition, so it can mean undernutrition or
overnutrition. Malnutrition is often equated with undernutrition. Overnutrition is when a person eats too many calories, which often results in
obesity. Malnutrition can result in mental health challenges including eating disorders.
1. New York Times
Consumer-facing food that is convenient and highly nutritious.
CEOs of food and beverage giants are focused on addressing sustainability from a climate and health perspective. Consumers are becoming
more aware and interested in healthier choices. Wellness which includes physical, mental, and nutrition, was already gaining momentum before
the pandemic, which only brought it into sharper focus. Drastic changes in how people live and the constant threat of infection increased consumer
interest in healthy eating.
● Consumer behavior is challenging to change. People struggle to make healthy choices.
● Lack of nutrition education results in an unhealthy diet.
● The high cost of organic produce makes it inaccessible for many Americans.
● Healthy food is inconvenient. Fresh food isn’t only more expensive; it takes more resources and time to cook, and keep for fewer days.
13. 13
Food waste is closely related to nutrition access...
Problems:
Solutions:
Drivers:
Challenge:
More than one-third of global produced food is wasted. High rates of food loss and waste raise food prices for consumers and reduce the
affordability for low-income consumers. Fresh fruits and vegetables are more expensive to farm and bring to stores and often supply doesn’t match
demand. Climate change will place more demand on how food is grown, while fewer people will work in the farming industry. Food production
needs to be adjusted to work with climate change at a price that is affordable for consumers.
Agtech to increase shelf life, AI/ML to align supply and demand, food engineering, and vertical farming.
At a global level, solutions to prevent food insecurity are critically important because global population growth means food production needs to
increase by as much as 70% by 2050. From a social perspective, CEOs of food and beverage companies are focused on addressing sustainability
progress and goals. Primary goals include making operations more sustainable for the planet, building a more resilient value chain, and reducing
the use of water and land resources.
● Technology needs to be adopted to align supply and demand. Many grocers and restaurants do not have a proper system to understand
demand for each item.
● Supply chains to recycle food are expensive and complex.
● Meat and dairy alternatives need to be highly delicious to the mass consumer and taste exactly like traditional meat and dairy products.
14. 14
Food engineering is the design and development of systems for production, processing, and distributing food. Today, food science and
engineering is often used to create delicious food that reduces the amount of water and energy in production, while providing more nutritious food
for people. Cell-based and precision fermentation can also be combined with plant-based ingredients to make better plant-based meat that is
more affordable and healthier for consumers.
Cell-Based Food
Production
Fermentation Food
Production
Vertical
Farming
Transformative Seed
Breeding
Cellular agriculture is the production of
animal-sourced foods from cell culture.
There are two kinds of agricultural
products derived from cell culture:
acellular products and cellular products.
Acellular products are made of organic
molecules like proteins and fat and
contain no cellular or living material in the
final product. Cellular products are made
of living or or once-living cells.
Ingredients made with biomass fermentation
or precision fermentation can be combined
with plant-based ingredients to make
improved plant-based meat or dairy products.
The metabolic engine of mushrooms, known
as mycelium, is used in natural fermentation
to create novel ingredients for plant-based
meats. The technology offers solutions for
sugar reduction, food insecurity, sustainable
protein, and natural immune support.
Vertical farming is the
practice of growing crops
in vertically stacked
layers. It often
incorporates
controlled-environmental
agriculture, which aims to
optimize plant growth, and
soilless farming
techniques such as
hydroponics, aquaponics,
and aeroponics.
Plant-breeding technology companies
that are transforming agriculture and
its impact on society by combining
biological and data sciences to create
approaches that significantly reduce
the land, water, and other inputs
required to produce food and feed.
Food Engineering
15. 15
Food Engineering: Drivers, Challenges, Examples
Drivers:
● Demand: There is increasing demand for food that is delicious and more environmentally-friendly.
● Technology: Food, biological, and data science are improving to increase production of cell-based and mushroom fermentation-based
meat and dairy products.
● Urbanization: As more people live in cities, food supply chains become increasingly complex. Food engineering can increase shelf life and
access to food while decreasing food insecurity.
Challenges:
● Regulatory approval: Cell-based meat has been approved in Singapore, but not globally. The U.S. has been a leading country in terms of
thinking about cell-based regulation. The USDA and FDA have a joint framework to co-regulate all cell-based products except seafood,
which falls solely under the FDA’s jurisdiction. Seafood regulation will likely be faster than beef to be granted approval.
● Large volumes of data: Scaling infrastructure to accommodate large volumes of data to be analyzed can be challenging.
● Customer loyalty & adoption: B2C marketplaces and food brands have low switching costs for consumers and result in lower customer
loyalty. CAC can be high and direct to consumer food brands need unique marketing strategies.
MycoTechnoogy is a food ingredient company focused on moving
food forward by infusing human ingenuity with the intelligence of
nature. Harnessing the power of mushrooms, MycoTechnology is
able to solve some of the most pervasive challenges in the food
and beverage industry.
16. 16
Supply Chain Management
Decisions can be automated throughout the food supply chain by implementing applications of IoT and robotics to improve the customer
experience and increase access to nutrition. Across consumer categories, supply chains have changed from being primarily operational to
advanced planning utilizing business performance data. Nutritious food can become more affordable for consumers and waste can be
reduced by utilizing predictive analytics for supply chain transparency, demand and supply forecasting, pricing strategy, and end-of-life
product management.
AI/ML Demand Forecasting Shipping Management Waste Prevention
Fresh food is highly perishable resulting in extreme
amounts of food waste, driving prices up for
consumers. Inventory stock is regulated for
consumer safety. Demand forecasting systems can
result in real-time insights on product demand,
supply, and pricing to satisfy customers, reduce
waste, and lower prices. AI and ML solutions can be
used to increase demand forecasting accuracy.
Technology that optimizes transportation to increase
delivery speed and reaction time to supply chain
changes. Utilizing data to improve supply chain
logistics will increase access to fresh produce and
decrease costs for consumers.
AI/ML should be used to track, identify and prevent
food waste. Sensor-based technology enables
sorting and grading systems to help food business
maximize yields by replacing damaged products
with new ones or performing preventive measures.
AI can also be used to properly recycle and
repurpose excess food. Reduced waste will lower
prices for consumers. DTC food products can utilize
food waste in their production to lower costs.
17. 17
Supply Chain Management: Drivers, Challenges, Examples
Drivers:
● Data: with more consumer and business data, more data can be utilized to better forecast supply and demand.
● Demand: There is increased demand for high quality food products available at the right time.
● Regulations: Food safety regulations increase the importance of timing and managing a complex supply chain.
● SaaS adoption: SaaS and data analytics have continued to be adopted across industries, making them easy to apply across the entire
food supply chain and create value for consumer and business.
Challenges:
● Application integration: New technology needs to be implemented across systems and connect suppliers and businesses together.
● Large volumes of data: Scaling infrastructure to accommodate large volumes of data to be analyzed can be challenging.
● Data needs to be connected, shared, and analysed across the entire supply chain. Right now, data is in silos.
● Slower adoption from mass legacy food supply chain companies that do not know how to measure the financial impact and lack of
immediate results.
Shelf Engine: providers of an automated prediction engine that predicts
the perfect amount of perishable goods to order. The company uses
machine learning to help grocery stores dial in their orders to minimize
waste, maximize profit, and improve the bottom line.
The company provides weekly reporting to show sales, savings, and
gross profit increases. It has established relationships with distributors,
vendors, and grocery stores.
18. 18
Food Repurposing
Food repurposing is using food that otherwise would have not gone to human consumption to add value to another part of the food chain while
creating a positive impact on the environment. 30-40% of food in the United states is wasted. Repurposing food waste is a way to solve the
food urgency problem as the population grows. Upcycling food can help reduce greenhouse gases from food waste, while reducing waste,
and creating jobs across the food chain.
The food waste business was worth $34B in 2019. Food waste costs retailers $18B per year, and it has an expected CAGR of 5% for the next
seven years.1
Consumers are more concerned with ethical values and food waste. 62% of consumers said they would be comfortable eating “ugly
produce.” 2
Process Tech Upcycled Food
Technology uses to increase the effectiveness of repurposing food
by maintaining nutrition, keeping aesthetic qualities, or dehydrating
produce. Process technology can be licensed to food manufacturers
or used for their own purpose.
Upcycled food brands focusing on processing and production of
food products which are from other forms of food consumption. The
ingredients go through processing to be formulated into finished
ingredients.
1. Grand View Research
2. Food Dive
19. 19
Drivers:
● Growth: The upcycled food industry is worth $47 Billion and has an expected compound annual growth rate of 5% for the next seven years.
● Consumers: People are aware of the food waste problem and consumers are demanding more sustainability goals. Consumers are more
willing to eat ugly produce or pay more for upcycled foods.
● Education: Consumers are becoming more aware of upcycled foods and there are an increasing number of certification programs to define
upcycle foods.
Challenges:
● Operations: Upcycling is a complex supply chain and product focused.
● The space is early in developing standards and connecting players in the supply chain.
● Misinformation: there is “greenwashing” with products that are not mitigating food waste.
● Companies need to strategically partner to increase the amount of food upcycled and reduce waste.
Kencko has created nutritious, healthy, upcycled food for busy people.
The product enables people to add organic fruits and vegetables to their
daily routine in under one minute. The company captures nutrients of
fresh produce in a shelf-stable form, reducing spoilage in the supply chain
and helping consumers to waste less.
Food Repurposing: Drivers, Challenges, Examples
20. 20
Digital Marketplaces
E-commerce food solutions are online platforms that sell a selection of food products. Digital Marketplaces and E-commerce platforms connect
buyer and sellers; often, sellers pay to gain access to a specific customer base. They also enable shoppers to have a wider selection of
products from which to choose and access to nutritious food at a lower cost. Consumers have shifted to buy more products such as clothing
online and food products have followed, which has fueled growth for startups in this ecosystem. Improved shipping logistics, online payment, and
security have enabled food digital marketplaces to grow. Because of perishability, food and beverage is still the least penetrating category online.
During 2020, total online sales of food and beverage, including groceries and takeout food, jumped 125% from the previous year, to $106 billion.1
1. Shopify
2. Statista
E-Grocery E-Procurement
Solution
Wholesale Digital Farmer’s
Markets
Surplus
Marketplaces
Meal Kits Restaurant
Delivery & Dark
Kitchens
Online grocery
provides
traditional
e-commerce
services for
grocery items
to consumers.
These are enterprise
software solutions for
food inventory
suppliers and
vendors. They help
companies meet the
demand of users as
food supply chain
shifts online.
Wholesale companies
help restaurants source
from vetted producers
and find high quality
ingredients at
competitive prices.
They eliminate legacy
players in the supply
chain.
Apps and websites
that connect
consumers to local
farmers and artisanal
food producers to
order fresh produce
online.
Marketplaces for
“ugly” food combating
food waste. These
bridge the gap by
connecting “ugly” food
to buyers who do
notcare about the
aesthetics. Often
prices are discounted.
This market is
expected to reach 12B
dollars by 2022.2
Meal
kits provide consumers
with pre-made meals
or easy to prepare
meals which make
eating more
convenient.
Platforms that
connect consumers
with restaurants for
on-demand delivery.
They aggregate
brands, food options,
restaurants, and
delivery services for
consumers.
21. 21
Drivers:
● The food distribution system is ripe for disruption: Plant and store closures during Covid-19 highlighted the need for disruption.
● Consumer needs: Increased importance placed on convenience, personalization, and quality.
● Technology innovation: On-demand delivery, online payment capabilities, shipping logistic, and e-commerce enablement.
● Improved logistics: Overhead costs are lower. Supply chains are more mature and wider reach.
● White space: Food and beverage e-commerce sales are the fastest-growing and least penetrated e-commerce category.
Challenges:
● Customer loyalty: B2C marketplaces and food delivery have low switching costs for consumers and result in lower customer loyalty.
● Unit economics and growth: High customer acquisition costs, while at the same time multi-sided platforms rely on economies of scale to
reap the full benefit and generate operation efficiency.
● Last mile delivery: delivery is challenging for supply chains and consumers are increasingly looking for on-demand delivery. Cold chain
delivery is increasingly expensive for food supply chains.
Anycart is building the world’s first grocery shopping
engine to make shopping and meal planning easy
and affordable for everyone. Shop from brand name
stores in your local community and get free delivery
with every order. Anycart helps consumers save
time, save money, and make life easier.
Digital Marketplaces: Drivers, Challenges, Examples
22. 22
The global food system accounts for 10% of the world’s GDP and employs as many as 1.5 billion people, and as
such presents a massive market opportunity where technology can increase access to nutritious food, improve
convenience, and reduce waste.
Key Investment Opportunities:
● Food fermentation technology, cell-based meat, AI/ML analytics, food repurposing, digital marketplaces, innovative D2C snacks and meals.
● The best opportunities will be consumer friendly, asset light, margin rich, largely unregulated, and scalable.
Criteria:
● A team that can recognize the pain points of the food supply chain.
● Clear understanding of the technology they are utilizing to solve the problem.
● Founders that can clearly explain the value of their unique solution.
● Domain-specific knowledge or data to provide a competitive advantage.
Conclusion