1. Center for Energy Studies
David E. Dismukes
Center for Energy Studies

2. Center for Energy Studies
Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill
GOM Offshore Oil and Gas – Economic Overview
• In 2008, over 420 MMBbls of oil and 2.4 Tcf of
natural gas were produced in the Gulf of Mexico
OCS.
• Employs over 200,000 workers in the Gulf Coast
region. Over 100,000 workers associated with
offshore activities.
• Contributes almost $100 billion to Gulf Coast
states’ GDP.
• GOM accounts for 30 percent of total U.S. crude oil
production.
• Deepwater areas produced 76 percent of all GOM
crude oil production in 2007.
Note: Gulf Coast states include Louisiana, Texas, Mississippi and Alabama
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, US Department of Commerce; Energy Information Administration, U.S. Department of Energy; and Baker
Hughes.
2

3. Center for Energy Studies
Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill
GOM Offshore Oil and Gas – Deepwater Exploration Trends
Over the past 20 years,
the water depth barrier
has moved from 5,300
feet to over 9,500 feet.
Source: Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, Regulation and Enforcement, US Department of the Interior.
3

4. Center for Energy Studies
Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill
GOM Offshore Oil and Gas – Deepwater Statistics and Considerations
• Over $1.5 billion in surface structure and equipment
needed to service deepwater wells.
• Drilling costs $80 million to $120 million per well.
• Drilling crews between 200 to 300 for large drilling
project.
• Structures and wells are typically 100 miles to 200
miles from the coast.
• Water depths between 5,000 feet to 8,500 feet.
• Drilling depths of 15,000 feet to 28,000 feet (lower
tertiary).
4

5. Center for Energy Studies
Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill
GOM OCS Deepwater Wells
Active deepwater wells are down relative to the earlier part of the decade, but
still make considerable contributions to OCS production levels.
250
> 7,500 ft
5,000 - 7,499 ft
1,500 - 4,999 ft
1,000 - 1,499 ft
Number of Wells
200
150
100
50
0
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
Source: Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, Regulation and Enforcement, US Department of the Interior.
2004
2006
2008
5

6. Center for Energy Studies
Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill
GOM OCS Deepwater Crude Oil Production
The significant increase in deepwater crude oil production has been a major
new source of domestic crude oil supply.
600
Oil Production (MMBbl)
Deepwater Oil
500
Shallow-water Oil
400
300
200
100
0
1970
1974
1978
1982
1986
1990
1994
Source: Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, Regulation and Enforcement, US Department of the Interior.
1998
2002
2006
6

7. Center for Energy Studies
Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill
GOM OCS Deepwater Natural Gas Production
Deepwater natural gas production has remained relative constant in recent
years, despite the overall GOM gas production plummet in 2002.
6,000
Deepwater Gas
Gas Production (Bcf)
Shallow-water Gas
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
1970
1974
1978
1982
1986
1990
1994
Source: Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, Regulation and Enforcement, US Department of the Interior.
1998
2002
2006
7

8. Center for Energy Studies
Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill
GOM OCS Deepwater Top Producers
Source: Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, Regulation and Enforcement, US Department of the Interior.
8

9. Center for Energy Studies
Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill
U.S. Offshore Capital Expenditures
The federal OCS, and its deepwater regions, account for a large share of the
increasing capital investments for major oil companies.
$100
$20,000
$80
$70
(million $)
$15,000
$60
$50
$10,000
$40
$30
$5,000
$20
Crude Oil Price ($ per barrel)
$90
$10
$0
$0
1990
1992
Exploration
1994
1996
Development
Source: Energy Information Administration, U.S. Department of Energy.
1998
2000
2002
Production
2004
2006
2008
WTI Crude Oil Price
9

10. Center for Energy Studies
Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill
U.S. Crude Oil Production Forecast
Deepwater production is forecast to increase by almost 20 percent between
2010 and 2030.
Crude Oil Production (MMBbls per day)
5.0
Projection
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
Potential moratorium-created
production risk
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
Onshore Lower 48
GOM - Deep Water
Offshore Pacific & Atlantic
2020
2025
2030
2035
GOM - Shallow Water
Alaska
10

11. Center for Energy Studies
Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill
Active Drilling Rig Trends in Louisiana
160
N. Louisiana - Land
S. Louisiana - Land
S. Louisiana - Inland Water
S. Louisiana - Offshore
Number of Rigs, S. Louisiana
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Jan-99
Source: Baker Hughes.
Jan-01
Jan-03
Jan-05
Jan-07
Jan-09
11

12. Center for Energy Studies
Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill
Gulf of Mexico Offshore Rig Forecast – Moratorium Impact
Forecasted activity
$160
$140
70
Apr-20:
Accident
60
$120
50
$100
40
$80
30
$60
20
$40
Moratorium-forecasted
reductions in activity
10
$20
0
Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10
Historical Rigs
Price of WTI
Baseline Forecast
WTI Futures
Sources: Dept. of Interior, Energy Information Administration, Baker Hughes, CME Group (NYMEX)
Attrition Forecast
$-
Price of WTI per Barrel
Number of Total Active GOM Drilling Rigs
80

13. Center for Energy Studies
Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill
Moratorium Impacted Rigs
Total pre-spill shallow-water activity currently down by about 31 percent.
70
Apr-20:
Accident
Other
Standby
Active - Other
Active - Drilling
60
50
Lost Activity
40
30
20
10
0
Note:
“Active-Other” includes Completion; Recomplete; and Workover categories;
“Standby” includes Assigned; Circulate; Under Tow; Waiting on Location; Orders or Weather; Mobilizing, Monitoring and Standby categories.
“Other” includes Plug & Abandon; Run Casing; Rigging Up; Logging; Moving On and Other categories.
Source: RigData.
13

14. Center for Energy Studies
Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill
Moratorium Impacted Rigs
Total pre-spill deepwater activity currently down by about 72 percent.
60
Apr-20:
Accident
Other
Standby
Active - Other
Active - Drilling
50
40
30
Lost Activity
20
10
0
Note:
“Active-Other” includes Completion; Recomplete; and Workover categories;
“Standby” includes Assigned; Circulate; Under Tow; Waiting on Location; Orders or Weather; Mobilizing, Monitoring and Standby categories.
“Other” includes Plug & Abandon; Run Casing; Rigging Up; Logging; Moving On and Other categories.
Source: RigData.
14

15. Center for Energy Studies
Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill
Moratorium Impacted Rigs
Impacted rigs anticipated to operate in very close proximity to Louisiana ports
and support services.
15

16. Center for Energy Studies
Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill
Gulf Coast Oil and Gas Employment – All Activities
16

17. Center for Energy Studies
Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill
Gulf Coast Oil and Gas Employment - Production
17

18. Center for Energy Studies
Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill
Gulf Coast Oil and Gas Employment - Drilling
18

19. Center for Energy Studies
Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill
Gulf Coast Oil and Gas Employment – Support
19

20. Center for Energy Studies
Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill
Potential Moratorium Impacts – Louisiana Only
20

21. Center for Energy Studies
Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill
Potential Moratorium Impacts (Short Run) – Potential Parish Level Impacts
21

22. Center for Energy Studies
Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill
Long Run Issues Associated with Spill
Some longer-run issues for Louisiana and Gulf Cost include:
• Intermediate-run implications (12-36 months) of current drilling moratoria and
the decreased economic activity.
• The impacts that likely regulatory changes will have on GOM operations and
costs that will impact investment profitability.
• Changes in operator liability requirements and the cost of insurance for GOM
operations, particularly for independent operators that have a relatively large
(in total) economic presence in Louisiana than the majors.
• New excise taxes, fees, surcharges, and the elimination of drilling incentives
such as the Deepwater Royalty Relief Act and Energy Policy Act of 2005 EPAct
deep-gas drilling incentives (shallow water, well depths in excess of 20,000
feet).
• Impacts on opening the Eastern GOM and elimination of potential economic
opportunities for Louisiana service ports (Venice, Fourchon) and LA-based
service companies.
22

23. Center for Energy Studies
Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill
Questions, Comments, & Discussion
dismukes@lsu.edu
Center for Energy Studies
www.enrg.lsu.edu
23