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Ipsos MORI May 2019 Political Monitor

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As pressure mounts on Theresa May to step down Ipsos MORI’s new Political Monitor reveals no clear public favourite amongst the Conservative rivals for the Premiership.
When asked if each contender has what it takes to be a good Prime Minister none of the potential candidates stand out as a clear favourite with little shift in this figures since March this year. Boris Johnson has the largest number of Britons believing he has what it takes at with a quarter (25%) agreeing – however two-thirds (64%) disagree, which is also the highest negative number. Following Boris Johnson one in five (20%) think Sajid Javid has what it takes however almost half (47%) disagree.

Veröffentlicht in: News & Politik
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Ipsos MORI May 2019 Political Monitor

  1. 1. 1Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | PublicIpsos MORI Political Monitor | Public 1 May 2019 POLITICAL MONITOR
  2. 2. 2Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | PublicIpsos MORI Political Monitor | Public 2 May 2019 VOTING INTENTIONS
  3. 3. 3Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW?. Voting Intention: May 2019 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 1,072 British adults 18+, 10– 14 May 2019; Headline Voting Intention: all 9/10 certain to vote and always/usually/it depends vote in General Elections = 733 Margin of error is displayed at +/- 4% All polls are subject to a wide range of potential sources of error. On the basis of the historical record of the polls at recent general elections, there is a 9 in 10 chance that the true value of a party’s support lies within 4 points of the estimates provided by this poll, and a 2 in 3 chance that they lie within 2 points. This is especially important to keep in mind when calculating party lead figures. ALL GIVING A VOTING INTENTION HEADLINE VOTING INTENTION CONSERVATIVE LEAD = -3 CONSERVATIVE LEAD = -2 27% 25% 16% 15% 7% 3% 2% LABOUR CONSERVATIVE THE BREXIT PARTY LIB DEM GREEN UKIP CHANGE UK 28% 25% 13% 13% 7% 4% 2% LABOUR CONSERVATIVE LIB DEM THE BREXIT PARTY GREEN UKIP CHANGE UK
  4. 4. 4Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW?. Headline voting intention: Since 2015 General Election Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: c. 800 British adults; Prior to July 2015 the turnout filter is “All certain to vote”; From July 2015 turnout filter is “all 9/10 certain to vote and always/usually/it depends vote in General Elections 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 May15 Jul15 Sep15 Nov15 Jan16 Mar16 May16 Jul16 Sep16 Nov16 Jan17 Mar17 May17 Jul17 Sep17 Nov17 Jan18 Mar18 May18 Jul18 Sep18 Nov18 Jan19 Mar19 Corbyn elected (Sept 15) May as PM (July 16) CONSERVATIVE 25% LABOUR 27% GENERAL ELECTION % May ‘19 May19
  5. 5. 5Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Jan04 Apr04 Jul04 Oct04 Jan05 Apr05 Jul05 Oct05 Jan06 Apr06 Jul06 Oct06 Jan07 Apr07 Jul07 Oct07 Jan08 Apr08 Jul08 Oct08 Jan09 Apr09 Jul09 Oct09 Jan10 Apr10 Jul10 Oct10 Jan11 Apr11 Jul11 Oct11 Jan12 Apr12 Jul12 Oct12 Jan13 Apr13 Jul13 Oct13 Jan14 Apr14 Jul14 Oct14 Jan15 Apr15 Jul15 Oct15 Jan16 Apr16 Jul16 Oct16 Jan17 Apr17 Jul17 Oct17 Jan18 Apr18 Jul18 Oct18 Jan19 Apr19 Miliband elected (Sept 10) Corbyn elected (Sept 15) May as PM (July 16) HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW?. Headline voting intention: January ‘04 – May ‘19 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: c. 800 British adults; Prior to July 2015 the turnout filter is “All certain to vote”; From July 2015 turnout filter is “all 9/10 certain to vote and always/usually/it depends vote in General Elections Cameron elected (Dec 05) Brown as PM (June 07) CONSERVATIVE 25% LABOUR 27% UKIP 3% GREEN 7% LIB DEM 15% GENERAL ELECTION % May‘19 THE BREXIT PARTY 16% CHANGE UK 2%
  6. 6. 6Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | PublicIpsos MORI Political Monitor | Public 6 May 2019 SATISFACTION WITH GOVERNMENT AND PARTY LEADERS
  7. 7. 7Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public Theresa May Jeremy Corbyn The GovernmentVince Cable ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY…. IS RUNNING THE COUNTRY / DOING HIS/HER JOB. AS PRIME MINISTER /LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY/LEADER OF THE LIBERAL DEMOCRATS?. Satisfaction with leaders and the Government: May 2019 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 1,072 British adults 18+ 10-14 May 2019. Swing is calculated as the average of change in % “satisfied” and % “dissatisfied” 73% 7% 20% 37% 31% 32% DISSATISFIED DON’T KNOW SATISFIED -3.5% SWING FROM MAR 2019 -1.5% SWING FROM MAR 2019 +6.5% SWING FROM MAR 2019 +0.5% SWING FROM MAR 2019 NET=-53 NET=-5 NET=-74NET=-43 69% 5% 26% 10% 5% 84 %
  8. 8. 8Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS/HER JOB AS PRIME MINISTER /LEADER OF THE LABOUR/LIB DEM PARTY?. Satisfaction with Party leaders September 2015 – May 2019 Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Sep15 Oct15 Nov15 Dec15 Jan16 Feb16 Mar16 Apr16 May16 Jun16 Jul16 Aug16 Sep16 Oct16 Nov16 Dec16 Jan17 Feb17 Mar17 Apr17 May17 Jun17 Jul17 Aug17 Sep17 Oct17 Nov17 Dec17 Jan18 Feb18 Mar18 Apr18 May18 Jun18 Jul18 Aug18 Sep18 Oct18 Nov18 Dec18 Jan19 Feb19 Mar19 Apr19 2016 EU Ref % satisfied MAY 26% CORBYN 20% CABLE 32% GENERAL ELECTION May ‘19
  9. 9. 9Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS/HER JOB AS PRIME MINISTER?. Net satisfaction with Prime Ministers (1979-2019) Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month MAY CAMERON BROWN MAJOR BLAIR THATCHER NUMBER OF MONTHS AFTER BECOMING PRIME MINISTER NETSATISFACTION May Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone
  10. 10. 10Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE … PARTY?. Net satisfaction with Opposition Leaders (1980 – 2019) Corbyn NUMBER OF MONTHS AFTER BECOMING OPPOSITION LEADER NETSATISFACTION CORBYN BLAIR SMITH KINNOCK MILLIBAND FOOT CAMERON DUNCAN-SMITH HAGUE HOWARD Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone
  11. 11. 11Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY THE GOVERNMENT IS RUNNING THE COUNTRY? Net satisfaction with the Government (1979 – 2019) Theresa May’s Government NUMBER OF MONTHS AFTER ASSUMING GOVERNMENT NETSATISFACTION MAY’S GOV BLAIR’S GOV MAJOR’S GOV CAMERON’S GOV THATCHER’S GOV BROWN’S GOV Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone
  12. 12. 12Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY THERESA MAY IS DOING HER JOB AS PRIME MINISTER?. Theresa May Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor May 2019 August 2016 – May 2019 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Aug-16 Oct-16 Dec-16 Feb-17 Apr-17 Jun-17 Aug-17 Oct-17 Dec-17 Feb-18 Apr-18 Jun-18 Aug-18 Oct-18 Dec-18 Feb-19 Apr-19 69% Dissatisfied 5% Don’t know 26% Satisfied NET = -43 Satisfaction DISSATISFIED 69% SATISFIED 26% % Base: 1,072 British adults 18+ 10-14 March 2019
  13. 13. 13Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY THERESA MAY IS DOING HER JOB AS PRIME MINISTER?. Theresa May Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 222 Conservative supporters 18+ 10-14 May 2019 May 2019 August 2016 – May 2019 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Aug-16 Oct-16 Dec-16 Feb-17 Apr-17 Jun-17 Aug-17 Oct-17 Dec-17 Feb-18 Apr-18 Jun-18 Aug-18 Oct-18 Dec-18 Feb-19 Apr-19 43% Dissatisfied 4% Don’t know 53% Satisfied NET = +10 DISSATISFIED 43% SATISFIED 53% Satisfaction amongst Conservative supporters %
  14. 14. 14Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public Jeremy Corbyn Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor May 2019 September 2015 – May 2019 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Nov-17 Jan-18 Mar-18 May-18 Jul-18 Sep-18 Nov-18 Jan-19 Mar-19 May-19 . SATISFIED 20% DISSATISFIED 73% ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY JEREMY CORBYN IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY?. NET = -53 Satisfaction 73% Dissatisfied 7% Don’t know 20% Satisfied % Base: 1,072 British adults 18+ 10-14 March 2019
  15. 15. 15Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public Jeremy Corbyn Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 197 Labour supporters 18+ 10-14 May 2019 May 2019 September 2015 – May 2019 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Nov-17 Jan-18 Mar-18 May-18 Jul-18 Sep-18 Nov-18 Jan-19 Mar-19 May-19 ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY JEREMY CORBYN IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY?. NET = +14 Satisfaction amongst Labour supporters 40% Dissatisfied 6% Don’t know 54% Satisfied SATISFIED 54% DISSATISFIED 40% %
  16. 16. 16Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public Vince Cable Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor May 2019 September 2017 – May 2019 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 DISSATISFIED 37% SATISFIED 32% ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY VINCE CABLE IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE LIBERAL DEMOCRATS?. NET = -5 37% Dissatisfied 31% Don’t know 32% Satisfied Satisfaction % Base: 1,072 British adults 18+ 10-14 May 2019
  17. 17. 17Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | PublicIpsos MORI Political Monitor | Public 17 May 2019 ECONOMIC OPTIMISM
  18. 18. 18Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Jan-07 Jul-07 Dec-07 Apr-08 Aug-08 Dec-08 Apr-09 Aug-09 Dec-09 Apr-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Oct-15 Feb-16 Jun-16 Oct-16 Feb-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jun-18 Dec-18 DO YOU THINK THAT THE GENERAL ECONOMIC CONDITION OF THE COUNTRY WILL IMPROVE, STAY THE SAME OR GET WORSE OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS?. Economic Optimism Index Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor May 2019 EOI = -35 51% 25% 16% 9% GET WORSE STAY THE SAME Don’t know GET BETTER Stay the same Get worse Improve % January 2007 – May 2019 Mar-19 May ‘19 Base: 1,072 British adults 18+ 10-14 May 2019
  19. 19. 19Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public DO YOU THINK THAT THE GENERAL ECONOMIC CONDITION OF THE COUNTRY WILL IMPROVE, STAY THE SAME OR GET WORSE OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS?. Economic Optimism Index – 1998-2019 Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 Jan1998 Oct1998 Jul1999 Apr2000 Jan2001 Oct2001 Jul2002 Apr2003 Jan2004 Oct2004 Jul2005 Apr2006 Jan2007 Oct2007 Jul2008 Apr2009 Jan2010 Oct2010 Jul2011 Apr2012 Jan2013 Oct2013 Jul2014 Apr2015 Jan2016 Oct2016 Jul2017 Apr2018 Jan2019 NET OPTIMISM=-35 Mar2019 May ‘19
  20. 20. 20Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | PublicIpsos MORI Political Monitor | Public 20 May 2019 POTENTIAL PRIME MINISTERS AND CONSERVATIVE LEADERSHIP
  21. 21. 21Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public POSSIBLE AS SOON AS ONCE BRITAIN HAS LEFT NEXT GENERAL ELECTION THE EU BUT BEFORE THE AFTER THE NEXT GENERAL ELECTION 21% 21% 28% 24% 7% AS SOON AS PARLIAMENT HAS AGREED A DEAL FOR HOW BRITAIN SHOULD LEAVE THE EU Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor WHEN, IF AT ALL, DO YOU THINK THE CONSERVATIVE PARTY SHOULD CHANGE ITS LEADER? Conservative party leadership Base: 1,072 British adults 18+, 222 Conservative party supporters, 10-14 May 2019 POSSIBLE AS SOON AS ONCE BRITAIN HAS LEFT NEXT GENERAL ELECTION THE EU BUT BEFORE THE AFTER THE NEXT GENERAL ELECTION DON’T KNOW GENERAL PUBLIC AMONG CONSERVATIVE PARTY SUPPORTERS 36% 18% 20% 15% 11% AS SOON AS PARLIAMENT HAS AGREED A DEAL FOR HOW BRITAIN SHOULD LEAVE THE EU DON’T KNOW
  22. 22. 22Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public ON BALANCE, DO YOU AGREE OR DISAGREE THAT …HAS WHAT IT TAKES TO BE A GOOD PRIME MINISTER? Prime Minister material? 11% 11% 13% 16% 19% 19% 20% 25% 36% 30% 45% 56% 52% 51% 47% 64% Penny Mordaunt Rory Stewart Dominic Raab Michael Gove Jeremy Hunt Amber Rudd Sajid Javid Boris Johnson AGREE DISAGREE AGREE NET -39 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor -27 -32 -33 -40 -32 -25 SINCE SWING MAR ‘19 -19 +0.5 -1 -1 +0.5 +2 +2 - - Base: 1,072 British adults 18+ 10-14 May 2019. Swing is calculated as the average of change in % “agree” and % “disagree”
  23. 23. 23Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public ON BALANCE, DO YOU AGREE OR DISAGREE THAT …HAS WHAT IT TAKES TO BE A GOOD PRIME MINISTER? Prime Minister material? 17% 21% 22% 26% 29% 30% 36% 36% 24% 28% 29% 48% 41% 38% 53% 36% Rory Stewart Penny Mordaunt Dominic Raab Michael Gove Jeremy Hunt Amber Rudd Boris Johnson Sajid Javid AGREE DISAGREE AGREE NET 0 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor -17 -8 -12 -22 -7 -7 SINCE MAR ‘19 -7 +4 +4.5 +0.5 -4 -3.5 +8.5 - - Among Conservative party supporters Base: 222 Conservative party supporters, 10-14 May 2019. Swing is calculated as the average of change in % “agree” and % “disagree. SWING
  24. 24. 24Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | PublicIpsos MORI Political Monitor | Public 24 May 2019 BREXIT
  25. 25. 25Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public POSSIBLE AS SOON AS ONCE BRITAIN HAS LEFT NEXT GENERAL ELECTION THE EU BUT BEFORE THE AFTER THE NEXT GENERAL ELECTION 21% 21% 28% 24% 7% AS SOON AS PARLIAMENT HAS AGREED A DEAL FOR HOW BRITAIN SHOULD LEAVE THE EU Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor WHEN, IF AT ALL, DO YOU THINK THE CONSERVATIVE PARTY SHOULD CHANGE ITS LEADER? Conservative party leadership Base: 1,072 British adults 18+, 222 Conservative party supporters, 10-14 May 2019 POSSIBLE AS SOON AS ONCE BRITAIN HAS LEFT NEXT GENERAL ELECTION THE EU BUT BEFORE THE AFTER THE NEXT GENERAL ELECTION DON’T KNOW GENERAL PUBLIC AMONG CONSERVATIVE PARTY SUPPORTERS 36% 18% 20% 15% 11% AS SOON AS PARLIAMENT HAS AGREED A DEAL FOR HOW BRITAIN SHOULD LEAVE THE EU DON’T KNOW
  26. 26. 26Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor 7% I like the party and I like their approach to Brexit 26% I like the party but I do not like their approach to Brexit 5% I do not like the party but I like their approach to Brexit 53% I do not like the party and I do not like their approach to Brexit 9% Don’t know WHICH OF THESE STATEMENTS COMES CLOSEST TO YOUR VIEWS OF EACH OF THE FOLLOWING PARTIES AND THEIR APPROACH TO BRITAIN LEAVING THE EUROPEAN UNION (BREXIT)? The Conservative party and its position on Brexit v Conservative Party and their Brexit position Total like the party 33% Total do not like the party 58% Total like their approach to Brexit 12% Total do not like their approach to Brexit 79% Base: 1,072 British adults 18+ 10-14 May 2019
  27. 27. 27Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor 24% I like the party and I like their approach to Brexit 4% I like the party but I do not like their approach to Brexit 7% I do not like the party but I like their approach to Brexit 45% I do not like the party and I do not like their approach to Brexit 20% Don’t know WHICH OF THESE STATEMENTS COMES CLOSEST TO YOUR VIEWS OF EACH OF THE FOLLOWING PARTIES AND THEIR APPROACH TO BRITAIN LEAVING THE EUROPEAN UNION (BREXIT)? The Brexit Party and its position on Brexit v The Brexit Party and their Brexit position Total like the party 28% Total do not like the party 52% Total like their approach to Brexit 31% Total do not like their approach to Brexit 49% Base: 1,072 British adults 18+ 10-14 May 2019
  28. 28. 28Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public 50% 18% 31% 76% Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor 41% 69% 40% 25% LIKE Base: 371 2017 Conservative voters 18+ 10-14 May 2019 DO NOT LIKE Political parties and their position on Brexit WHICH OF THESE STATEMENTS COMES CLOSEST TO YOUR VIEWS OF EACH OF THE FOLLOWING PARTIES AND THEIR APPROACH TO BRITAIN LEAVING THE EUROPEAN UNION (BREXIT)? Among 2017 Conservative voters The Conservative party The Brexit party The Conservative party’s approach to Brexit The Brexit party’s approach to Brexit
  29. 29. 29Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor DO YOU THINK EACH OF THE FOLLOWING HAS DONE A GOOD JOB OR A BAD JOB AT HANDLING BRITAIN’S EXIT FROM THE EUROPEAN UNION? Handling Britain’s exit from the European Union 45% 25% 50% 71% GOOD JOB BAD JOB GENERAL PUBLIC CONSERVATIVE PARTY SUPPORTERS THERESA MAY NET GOOD JOB -46 -5 Base: 1,072 British adults 18+, 222 Conservative party supporters, 10-14 May 2019
  30. 30. 30Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public Theresa May’s handling of Britain’s exit from the European Union Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: c. 1,000 British adults 18+ each month BAD JOB 71% GOOD JOB 25% May ‘19 DO YOU THINK EACH OF THE FOLLOWING HAS DONE A GOOD OR A BAD JOB AT HANDLING BRITAIN’S EXIT FROM THE EUROPEAN UNION? c 51% 49% 35% 32% 43% 30% 35% 40% 55% 55% 50% 65% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% Dec-16 Mar-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 May-19
  31. 31. 31Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public Theresa May’s handling of Britain’s exit from the European Union Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor GOOD JOB 45% BAD JOB 50% May ‘19 DO YOU THINK EACH OF THE FOLLOWING HAS DONE A GOOD OR A BAD JOB AT HANDLING BRITAIN’S EXIT FROM THE EUROPEAN UNION? c 80% 71% 58% 74% 57% 13% 21% 27% 23% 38% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% Dec-16 Jul-17 Oct-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 May-19 Among Conservative supporters Base: c. 350 Conservative party supporters each month
  32. 32. 32Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public Confidence in May to get a good Brexit deal for Britain Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: c. 1,000 British adults 18+ each month * In December 2018 the question was posed as ‘has got a good deal’’’ NOT CONFIDENT 80% CONFIDENT 18% 44% 36% 35% 37% 34% 30% 25% 28% 19% 23% 21% 18% 51% 60% 60% 59% 63% 67% 72% 70% 78% 69% 77% 79% 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 May ‘19 PLEASE TELL ME HOW CONFIDENT, IF AT ALL, YOU ARE THAT THERESA MAY HAS GOT/WILL GET A GOOD DEAL FOR BRITAIN IN NEGOTIATIONS WITH OTHER EUROPEAN UNION LEADERS?. Mar-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Mar-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Dec-18 Feb-19 Mar-19 May-19
  33. 33. 33Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public 73% 66% 67% 67% 56% 47% 45% 34% 39% 36% 37% 26% 30% 33% 32% 43% 51% 53% 64% 54% 62% 60% 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 PLEASE TELL ME HOW CONFIDENT, IF AT ALL, YOU ARE THAT THERESA MAY HAS GOT/WILL GET A GOOD DEAL FOR BRITAIN IN NEGOTIATIONS WITH OTHER EUROPEAN UNION LEADERS?. Confidence in May to get a good deal for Britain Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: c. 350 Conservative party supporters each month * In December 2018 the question was posed as ‘has got a good deal’, NOT CONFIDENT 64% CONFIDENT 36% Among Conservative supporters May ‘19 Jul-17 Oct-17 Mar-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Dec-18 Feb-19 Mar-19 May-19
  34. 34. 34Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor 64% 49% 47% 13% 35% 28% AS YOU MAY KNOW, THE CONSERVATIVE AND LABOUR PARTIES ARE HOLDING TALKS TO SEE IF THEY CAN AGREE ON A DEAL FOR HOW BRITAIN SHOULD LEAVE THE EUROPEAN UNION. TO WHAT EXTENT, IF AT ALL DO YOU SUPPORT OR OPPOSE LABOUR AND CONSERVATIVES HOLDING THESE TALKS? Public opinion on cross-party Brexit talks SUPPORT OPPOSE CONSERVATIVE PARTY SUPPORTERS GENERAL PUBLIC LABOUR PARTY SUPPORTERS Base: 1,072 British adults 18+, 222 Conservative party supporters, 197 Labour party supporters 10-14 May 2019
  35. 35. 35Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor 24% 19% 17% 76% 80% 79% AS YOU MAY KNOW, THE CONSERVATIVE AND LABOUR PARTIES ARE HOLDING TALKS TO SEE IF THEY CAN AGREE ON A DEAL FOR HOW BRITAIN SHOULD LEAVE THE EUROPEAN UNION. TO WHAT EXTENT, IF AT ALL DO YOU SUPPORT OR OPPOSE LABOUR AND CONSERVATIVES HOLDING THESE TALKS? Likelihood of the Conservatives and the Labour party agreeing on a Brexit deal SUPPORT OPPOSE CONSERVATIVE PARTY SUPPORTERS GENERAL PUBLIC LABOUR PARTY SUPPORTERS Base: 1,072 British adults 18+, 222 Conservative party supporters, 197 Labour party supporters 10-14 May 2019
  36. 36. 36Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | PublicIpsos MORI Political Monitor | Public 36 October 2018 Ipsos MORI May 2019 Political Monitor Gideon Skinner Research Director gideon.skinner@ipsos.com Keiran Pedley Research Director keiran.pedley@ipsos.com Glenn Gottfried Research Manager glenn.gottfried@ipsos.com For more information

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