SlideShare ist ein Scribd-Unternehmen logo
1 von 52
The East African Monetary Union: Progress and
                         Challenges


                  IGC Growth Week, 20 September 2011



Christopher Adam – Oxford and IGC
Pantaleo Kessy – Bank of Tanzania
Stephen A. O’Connell – Swarthmore and IGC
Outline
1. Context, background and initial conditions

2. Pre-conditions for effective monetary union

3. Transitional Arrangements
    • Options
    • Capital mobility and a grid system
    • Design considerations
    • Exit options
Part I: Background
1948          The new EAC
The EA High           2001
Commission          Kenya
Kenya             Tanzania
Tanganyika
Uganda
                   Uganda
                      2007
                   Burundi
                   Rwanda
1967
The EAC              2010
Kenya            Common
Tanzania           Market
Uganda           Protocol

                  Targets
                     2012
1977             Monetary
The EAC             Union
disbands
Kenyatta             2015
Nyerere
                  Political
Idi Amin
                Federation
Milestones

•   The Treaty for the establishment of the (new) EAC was signed on November 1999
    and the EAC was formally launched in January 2001. The treat provides for the
    following stages for economic and political cooperation:

•   (1) East Africa Custom Union
          • Established in 2005 focusing mainly on merchandise trade

•   (2) EAC Common Market (free movement of factors of production - labour and capital)
          • The Protocol on the Establishment of the EAC Common Market entered
             into force on 1st July 2010

•   (3) East Africa Monetary Union [EAMU]
          • EAC member states are currently working towards an agreement on a
             protocol for a monetary union by 2012

•   (4) EAC Political Federation
          • No time set yet – some indications of 2015
EAC Basic Indicators
                                        Share of       Head-      Share of
             Real GDP                                                          Exports of
                           Popula-     EAC5 GDP        count      agricul-                   Trade     Net ODA
             per capita                                                        goods and
Country                     tion       at official    poverty      ture in                   deficit     (% of
              ($2005                                                            services
                          (millions)   exchange       rate (at      GDP                     (% GDP)    imports)
               PPP)                                                             (% GDP)
                                         rates       nat P-line      (%)
Burundi         356          8.3           1.8         68.1         34.8         10.7        36.2       102.0
Kenya          1,428        39.8          39.7         46.6         22.6         25.2        13.1       15.4
Rwanda         1,032        10.0           7.1         56.9         34.2         11.7        17.5       61.0
Tanzania       1,237        43.7          29.7         35.7         28.8         23.2        11.9        37.2
Uganda         1,105        32.7          21.7         31.1         24.7         23.4        11.2        32.0


                                       additional macro indicators
                          Present                                 Gov’t           CPI
                                                     Per-capita                             ER depr    Reserves
                          value of     Total debt               deficit incl   inflation
                M2                                    growth                                 rate,     (months
Country                   external       service                  grants         rate
              (% GDP)                                 2005-09                               2005-10       of
                            debt        (% XGS)                  2007-09       2005-09
                                                        (%)                                   (%)      imports)
                          (% GNI)                                (% GDP)          (%)
Burundi        36.7         13.4          13.3          7.2        -4.1          12.0         7.2        7.2
Kenya          42.7         19.4           5.0          4.0        -4.4          14.0         4.0        4.0
Rwanda         16.2          8.3           4.7          5.8        -1.3          10.6         5.8        5.8
Tanzania       28.8         13.5           3.5          5.3        -3.5           8.4         5.3        5.3
Uganda         20.6          8.2           2.0          6.4        -2.1           9.4         6.4        6.4

Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators. All except KEN are HIPC countries.
EAMU – anticipated benefits

•   EAMU will replace the five individual country currencies with a common currency,
    to be managed by an East African Central Bank (EACB).

•   The proposed EAMU, may potentially offer economic benefits to the region:

     – Elimination of intra-union exchange risk in trade and finance

     – Larger and more competitive market => more attractive to domestic and foreign
       investment

     – (Enforced ) gains in coordinated economic management

     – Potential political benefits e.g. increased collective political status in the international
       arena
Feasibility and initial conditions I: intra-regional trade
•        The five countries trade more with non-EAC countries, both on exports and import
         side
•        The gains in exchange rate certainty and in transaction cost reduction by having a
         common currency are unlikely to be substantial at this stage.

            Exports to EAC as a ratio of total exports
    35                                                                 Imports from EAC as a ratio of total imports
                                                                  40
    30
                                                                  35
    25
                                                                  30

    20                                                            25
%




    15                                                            20




                                                              %
                                                                  15
    10
                                                                  10
    5
                                                                  5
    0
                                                                  0
          2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
                                                                       2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
               Tanzania      Kenya         Rwanda                            Tanzania      Kenya        Rwanda
               Burundi       Uganda                                          Burundi       Uganda
Feasibility and initial conditions II: external shocks

•   The cost of loss of independent
    monetary and exchange rate policy
    depend, to a large extent, on the way
    in which exogenous shocks affect the
    member countries. Emerging
    difference in production / trade
    structures and in aid dependence
    increase the likelihood of asymmetric
    shocks

•   Rapidly changing natural resource
    dependence (esp if EAC included
    South Sudan)

•   Very different levels and trajectories
    of reliance on aid
Feasibility and initial conditions III: mitigation


 Labour mobility
• Despite EAC Common Market Protocol, the region does not yet have free
   flow of labour
.
Capital mobility
• Significant differences on de facto measures. Uganda and Tanzania highly
   open, Tanzania, Rwanda and Burundi

Compensatory fiscal structures
• Limited capacity at present…
Divergence I
Inflation convergence in the EAC
                                              Home CPI relative to Kenyan CPI
            600
% deviation over decade
 0        200
            -200    400




                          1980                   1990                    2000              2010
                                                              Year
                           dot: Burundi / diamond: Rwanda / square: Tanzania / +: Uganda
Exchange rate convergence in the EAC
                                              Home currency per Kenya shilling
             800     600
% deviation over decade
0    200      400
             -200




                           1980                   1990                    2000              2010
                                                               Year
                            dot: Burundi / diamond: Rwanda / square: Tanzania / +: Uganda
Part II: Making it happen
Process and Models

•   May 2010 Monetary Affairs Committee (MAC) of the EAC commissions a
    study of transition to monetary union

•   The big design issues:
     – Post-union monetary framework (CBK and IMF)

     – Exchange rate arrangements during the transition (BoT and IGC)

     – Convergence criteria for transition and union (BoU and IMF)

•   Not an OCA study (literature suggests not a natural OCA).

•   Not much global experience to guide transition. A European Central Bank
    study commissioned by the MAC in 2009 relies on Europe’s experience
    (which spanned 30 years and is now under major stress)
Few global comparisons

•   CFA zone, RMA continued colonial-era arrangements: no transition from
    independent national currencies.

•    Euro area the dominant model, but ...
    – Advanced economies with high intra-regional trade
    – Long history of exchange rate pegging
    – Germany a very credible anchor

•   Gulf Cooperation Council ‘close’ to union: oil economies already
    successful with relatively hard US$ pegs
Initial conditions
•   All countries moving towards the same fundamental exchange rate
    policy – ‘managed float with no pre-determined path’ but at differential
    speeds. [Figure 1]. Currently, Rwanda ‘crawl-like’ and Burundi
    ‘stabilized’.

•   Forex market ‘broadly competitive’ in Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania.

•   Central bank does not play decisive role in normal operations of market
    (although could, if required or desired).

•   Markets in transition in Rwanda and Burundi. Fewer private players =>
    less competitive

•   Central bank more decisive role b/c relative size of aid flows in forex
    markets.
EAC Nominal Exchange Rate Indices against US$
                                             All currencies indexed to 100 in December 2005
-25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25
     Percent deviation from 2005m12




                                        IMF Classification
                                        IMF Classification
                                        BUR: Stabilized / KEN: Floating / RWA: Crawl-like / TZA: Floating / Uganda: Floating
                                        BUR: Stabilized / KEN: Floating / RWA: Crawl-like / TZA: Floating / Uganda: Floating


                       2005m7               2006m7           2007m7           2008m7           2009m7           2010m7

                                                    Burundi                   Kenya                     Rwanda
                                                    Tanzania                  Uganda
                                                                                                                     back
Issues at convergence

•    The mechanics of establishing conversion rates
    – A variety of empirical ‘equilibrium real exchange rate’ approaches,
         none very satisfactory
    – How far ahead should ‘final’ conversion rates be established? If the
         conversion step is credible, market rates should converge.

•    Misalignment concerns
    –    Short-run macroeconomic tensions if wages and/or prices are sticky
        and conversion rates imply different initial degrees of misalignment.
    – Risk of competitive devaluations in conversion phase.
    – Post-union shifts in equilibrium real exchange rates due to
        differential resource endowments.
Exchange rate options for the transition phase

   •         A transitional arrangement needs to constitute a viable monetary policy
             framework. Alternative arrangements differ in 2 main dimensions:
            – How do they provide a nominal anchor? (Country by country, can
                  think of 3 leading anchors: a monetary aggregate, the exchange rate,
                  or an inflation forecast)
            – Where do they vest policy sovereignty?
                                                                              Monetary policy
Option                                 Nominal anchor
                                                                               sovereignty
1 – Float                National money base and/or inflation targets             National
2 – External grid                National exchange rate pegs                National but limited
                              Center: money base and/or inflation
3 – Delegated anchor                                                           Anchor country
                             Periphery: national exchange rate pegs
                          Collectively determined money base and/or
                                                                           Collective with possible
4 – Collective anchor   inflation targets coexisting with limited mutual
                                                                               reserve pooling
                                    exchange rate variability
                        Collectively determined money and/or inflation      Weakly collective no
5 – Collective float
                                             targets                         reserve pooling
Transitional Options
• Five options
   – From ‘coordinated status quo to ‘full delegation’


   • Float

   • External Grid

   • Delegated Anchor

   • Collective Anchor

   • Collective Float
Option I: A Float System

Design
• Countries maintain current (managed) floating regimes
• Adopt a common inflation target (with harmonized inflation measures)
• No explicit commitments on exchange rates
• Commitment to fiscal and macro convergence and increased information
  sharing and coordination.

Conversion

• Once all countries are in agreed fiscal and macro ‘convergence zone’,
  conversion date announced (ideally within 6 months) and conversion
  rates between national currencies and EACU established.
Option II: External Grid
Design
• Each Partner state adopts a crawling (or fixed) band around a global
  currency, most obviously the US dollar.
• Three choices                                             Allows cross-
    – Rate of crawl of central rate (c)                     rates between
                                                            any two Partner
    – Initial width of band around central rate (b).        states to move
    – Rate at which band is narrowed                        +/- 2b%



Conversion
• As conversion approaches (subject again to meeting agreed fiscal and
   macro convergence criteria) bands are progressively reduced, eventually
   to zero on conversion.
• The EACU emerges as a hard peg to the US dollar
Option III: Delegated Anchor
Design
• Countries delegate one country (explicitly or implicitly) to maintain a
  strong domestic anchor.
• Each other country commits to peg its own currency to that of the
  delegated country’s currency.
• Commitments required for coordinated forex intervention to maintain all
  currencies within their bands.

Conversion
• As conversion approaches (subject again to meeting agreed fiscal and
   macro convergence criteria) bands around delegated currency are
   progressively reduced, eventually to zero on conversion.

•    Supranational EACB emerges to take over responsibility from delegated
    country, with all monetary discretion removed from Partner State central
    banks.
Option IV: Collective Anchor – the ECB proposal

Design
• Combines grid (plus band) system of delegated anchor (Option III) but with
  collectively provided anchor.
• Authority delegated to supra-national body to design and run coordinated
  union-wide monetary policy capable of anchoring union-wide inflation.

Conversion
• As conversion approaches (subject again to meeting agreed fiscal and
   macro convergence criteria) bands are progressively reduced, eventually
   to zero on conversion.

• The EACU emerges anchored by monetary policy run by supranational
  EACB, with all monetary discretion removed from Partner State central
  banks.
Option V: Collective Float

Design
• No explicit commitment to exchange rate arrangements during transition
  (as Option I)
• Explicit, formalized, delegation to representative supranational monetary
  authority (EAMI) of responsibility for designing and managing ‘shadow’
  monetary regime for entire union..

Conversion
• Once all countries are in agreed fiscal and macro ‘convergence zone’,
   conversion date announced (ideally within 6 months) and conversion
   rates between national currencies and EACU established.
• The EACU emerges anchored by monetary policy run by supranational
   EACB, with all monetary discretion removed from Partner State central
   banks.
Issues in Transition
• Properties of alternatives

   – Degree of commitment to ER peg

       • Can partner states trade-off domestic and external objectives in
         transition?

   – Delegation of authority versus policy coordination (e.g. reserve
     pooling)

   – Robustness to weak fiscal control

   – Exit options and credibility
Key questions for next phase

• Should exchange rate commitments be part of the transition process?

• What is the appropriate role of the supranational authority, in the
  transition and in planning for full union?

• How rapidly should Partner States seek to fully harmonize inter-bank
  foreign exchange markets?

• What methods should be used to establish conversion rates, and how far
  ahead should these be specified?
Introduction                 Data                     Findings        Conclusion




               Agricultural Productivity Growth in Tanzania

                                Martina Kirchberger

                      Department of Economics, University of Oxford


                                20 September 2011
                                 IGC Growth Week
Introduction                   Data                 Findings                 Conclusion



Motivation


               80% of Tanzania’s residents reside in rural areas and are highly
               dependent on agriculture
               Key to understand role of agriculture in economic growth in
               Tanzania
               Lack of evidence on trends in agricultural productivity
               2 IGC commissioned studies on agricultural productivity
               growth
                   "Poverty & Productivity: Small-Scale Farming in Tanzania
                   1991-2007" by Lokina, Nerman and Sandefur
                   "Agricultural Productivity Growth in Kagera between 1991 and
                   2004" by Kirchberger and Mishili
               Present results from these two studies
Introduction                   Data                 Findings               Conclusion



Main questions




               What was the role of the agricultural sector in poverty
               reduction and consumption growth?
               Has the output of major crops increased in the last 20 years?
               How much is due to increases in (i) productivity and (ii) land
               area used?
               Has the adoption of modern inputs increased?
Introduction              Data   Findings   Conclusion



Outline




         1     Data
         2     Findings
Introduction                  Data                  Findings          Conclusion



Data Sources




               Household Budget Surveys, 1991/92, 2000, 2007
               National Sample Census of Agriculture, 2002-2003
               National Panel Survey, 2008-2009
               Rainfall data 1991-2004; 2002-2008
               Kagera Health and Development Survey, 1991 and 2004 rounds
Introduction      Data         Findings   Conclusion



Structural Change, 1991-2007
Introduction                   Data                 Findings                 Conclusion




               Table: Evolution of Labor and Land Use in Kagera, 1991-2004
                                                   1991-2004
                         Change in Total Labor      -16.0%
                         Male (above 20yrs)           7.6%
                         Female (above 20yrs)        -5.2%
                         Male (12-19yrs)            -38.7%
                         Female (12-19yrs)          -43.8%
                         Children (7-12yrs)         -30.0%
                         Change in Land             -23.9%
                         Change in Land/Labor       -11.6%
Introduction     Data   Findings   Conclusion



Consumption Growth
Introduction                   Data                  Findings               Conclusion



Agricultural Production



               Proportion of farmers growing a particular crop is simliar
      National level
               Yields for major crops contracted (except rice paddy)
               output increases were mainly due to area expansion
      Kagera
               Value of output per worker or per acre contracted in most
               communities
               Some catch-up by pure farmers
Introduction               Data                 Findings             Conclusion



Agricultural Production




                         Table: Output and Yield Growth
                         Output    Yield   Planted crop in 2002/03
               Maize      0.9%    -1.3%             64.0%
               Paddy      3.6%     6.9%             15.2%
               Sorghum   -0.1%    -0.7%             11.9%
               Beans     -4.1%    -8.1%             24.9%
Introduction                  Data                   Findings                   Conclusion



Terms of trade


                         Table: Consumer and Producer Prices
               Variable                             Mean        Median    Sd
               Laspeyre Consumer Price Deflator      4.01         4.12    0.55
               Laspeyre Producer Price Deflator      3.42         3.27    1.16
               Coffee                                2.60         2.56    0.93
               Maize                                5.59         4.84    2.87
               Beans                                4.28         4.68    1.78
               Cooking Bananas                      5.02         4.33    3.03
               Sweet Bananas                        4.17         4.00    2.99
               Other Bananas                        4.25         3.77    2.84
        Notes: Consumer and Producer price index and selected products for the 47
                                 rural communities
Introduction                    Data                  Findings                   Conclusion



Adoption of ’modern inputs’


      National level
               Low levels of adoption of improved farming techniques
               (improved seed, fertilizer, pesticides, irrigation of plots and
               tractors)
               No evidence for increases in productivity due to improved
               farming techniques
      Kagera
               Increase in the proportion of households using manure and
               hired labor
               Reduction in the proportion of households using fertilizer or
               pesticides
Introduction                   Data                 Findings                Conclusion



Conclusion



               Occupational shifts away from agriculture made the largest
               contribution to consumption growth
               Crop composition of farmers remained fairly stable
               For maize and most other crops (except rice paddy) average
               yields have declined between 2002/03 and 2008/09; where
               output growth is present it is primarily attributable to area
               expansion and not productivity growth
               No evidence for increased adoption of improved farming
               techniques
Introduction   Data               Findings   Conclusion




                      Thank you
Attaining Middle
                    Income Status
Tanzania: Growth and Structural Transformation Required to
reach Middle Income Status by 2025.

            Mujobu Moyo (IGC), Rebecca Simson (IGC),
     Arun Jacob (POPC) and Francois-Xavier de Mevius (POPC)
Outline:
1.         Aim of the document
2.         Methodology
3.         Changes required
     i.      Sectoral shares and implied growth
     ii.     Employment and urban population
     iii.    Macroeconomic Indicators
4.         Conclusions
5.         Further issues
1. Aim
   To analyse the growth path and structural change
    required if Tanzania is to become a lower middle income
    country by 2025.
   To outline the challenges and trade-offs that Tanzania is
    likely to face in the next 15 years.
   Used as a necessary tool to review the Tanzania
    Development Vision (TDV) 2025 and develop a Five
    Year Development Plan.
2. Methodology
   Sample: Countries that reached lower middle income
    country (LMIC) status between 1960 and 2009
   Analyze the structure of their economies in the year that
    they reached LMIC status.
    We derive economic parameters for a model middle
    income country using the average values from our
    sample of countries.
   For Tanzania to become a LMIC it will have to grow at a
    rate of 5% per capita or 8% overall assuming a 3%
    population growth
(i). Sectoral shares and implied growth

                                                             Change
                                 Tanzania
                                             MMIC 2025      Required
                                   2009
                                                              (total)

Industry (% of GDP)                 24          30.7         27.92%

Manufacture (% of GDP)              9.4         17.8         89.36%

Service (% of GDP)                 47.6         48.6         2.10%

Agriculture (% of GDP)             28.4         20.7        -27.11%




                Sources: WDI database, ES 2009, own computation
(iii). Employment and Population

                                        Tanzania   MMIC    Req. Ann.
                                          2009     2025     Change


  Employ. in agric (% of total)          74.6      41.2     -3.64%

  Employ. in indust. (% of total)          5       20.5     9.22%

  Rural pop (% of total)                  74       62.3     -1.07%

     Rur: Number of people (Millions)    30.12     37.64    1.40%

    Urb: Number of people (Millions)     10.58     22.78    4.91%




      Source: WDI (2010), ES (2009), ILFS (2006), own computation.
(ii). Macroeconomic Indicators


                                   Tanzania 2009    MMIC


Exports (% of GDP)                     13.20        30.50
Imports (% of GDP)                     29.00        37.40
Trade Deficit (% of GDP)               15.80         6.90
GFKF (% of GDP)                        25.00        26.60
FDI (% of GDP)                         3.90          4.50
G Dom S (% of GDP)                     17.90        21.60
Net ODA (% of GNI)                     12.90         4.50
Rev (% of GDP)                         16.20        20.70
M2 (% of GDP)                          27.50        51.50



                 Sources: WDI database, ES 2009, own computation
4. Conclusions
 A fall in the share of agriculture and a rise
  in the share of manufacturing in GDP
 Movement of labour from agriculture to
  manufacturing
 Large productivity gains in agriculture
 Rapid growth in exports, FDI, domestic
  savings, government revenue
5. Further Issues
   The transition is already underway
     Growth driven by the service, construction
      and mining sectors
     Growth in the manufacturing sector is still
      slow
 Natural resources potential
 Growth paths and their implications
Thank you very much for your
          attention.

Weitere ähnliche Inhalte

Was ist angesagt?

Conference call 1 q13
Conference call 1 q13Conference call 1 q13
Conference call 1 q13Eternit S.A.
 
Economic Highlights Presentation, Q3 2011
Economic Highlights Presentation, Q3 2011Economic Highlights Presentation, Q3 2011
Economic Highlights Presentation, Q3 2011Assaf Luxembourg
 
MacroEconomics Of India - Fiscal & Monetary Outlook 2007 - SPJCM
MacroEconomics Of India - Fiscal & Monetary Outlook 2007 - SPJCMMacroEconomics Of India - Fiscal & Monetary Outlook 2007 - SPJCM
MacroEconomics Of India - Fiscal & Monetary Outlook 2007 - SPJCMApurva Chiranewala
 
Sectoral Economic Development Strategy
Sectoral Economic Development StrategySectoral Economic Development Strategy
Sectoral Economic Development Strategyedunetwork
 
Real estatemarketreport 1q12
Real estatemarketreport 1q12Real estatemarketreport 1q12
Real estatemarketreport 1q12Dennis_De_Vera
 
Vietnam market research
Vietnam market research Vietnam market research
Vietnam market research Solidiance
 
Real estatemarketreport 1q12
Real estatemarketreport 1q12Real estatemarketreport 1q12
Real estatemarketreport 1q12Dennis_De_Vera
 
Infosys - Result Update
Infosys  - Result UpdateInfosys  - Result Update
Infosys - Result UpdateAngel Broking
 
Miroslav Strokendl: Conference on Foreign Investments 23rd November
Miroslav Strokendl: Conference on Foreign Investments 23rd November Miroslav Strokendl: Conference on Foreign Investments 23rd November
Miroslav Strokendl: Conference on Foreign Investments 23rd November Italoblog
 
Acc ru1 qcy2010-230410
Acc ru1 qcy2010-230410Acc ru1 qcy2010-230410
Acc ru1 qcy2010-230410Angel Broking
 
Tbli Tokyo 2010 Vietnam Holding Ltd.
Tbli Tokyo 2010   Vietnam Holding Ltd.Tbli Tokyo 2010   Vietnam Holding Ltd.
Tbli Tokyo 2010 Vietnam Holding Ltd.jvontobel
 
WEG 1Q10 Conference Call Presentation
WEG 1Q10 Conference Call PresentationWEG 1Q10 Conference Call Presentation
WEG 1Q10 Conference Call PresentationWEG
 
Creating Value in Banking 2011
Creating Value in Banking 2011Creating Value in Banking 2011
Creating Value in Banking 2011Juan Lynch
 
Vietnam Retail Market, 2012
Vietnam Retail Market, 2012Vietnam Retail Market, 2012
Vietnam Retail Market, 2012Dunglt
 
Impact of 2008 crisis on mobile operators in Nordic-Baltic region_presentation
Impact of 2008 crisis on mobile operators in Nordic-Baltic region_presentationImpact of 2008 crisis on mobile operators in Nordic-Baltic region_presentation
Impact of 2008 crisis on mobile operators in Nordic-Baltic region_presentationOlga Efremenko
 
Gartner Report
Gartner ReportGartner Report
Gartner ReportSanjaylall
 
Third Quarter Results FY 2010-11:Investor Release
Third Quarter Results FY 2010-11:Investor Release Third Quarter Results FY 2010-11:Investor Release
Third Quarter Results FY 2010-11:Investor Release Semalytix
 
Recent Economic Developments in Latvia and Medium-term Outlook
Recent Economic Developments in Latvia and Medium-term OutlookRecent Economic Developments in Latvia and Medium-term Outlook
Recent Economic Developments in Latvia and Medium-term OutlookLatvijas Banka
 

Was ist angesagt? (19)

Conference call 1 q13
Conference call 1 q13Conference call 1 q13
Conference call 1 q13
 
Economic Highlights Presentation, Q3 2011
Economic Highlights Presentation, Q3 2011Economic Highlights Presentation, Q3 2011
Economic Highlights Presentation, Q3 2011
 
MacroEconomics Of India - Fiscal & Monetary Outlook 2007 - SPJCM
MacroEconomics Of India - Fiscal & Monetary Outlook 2007 - SPJCMMacroEconomics Of India - Fiscal & Monetary Outlook 2007 - SPJCM
MacroEconomics Of India - Fiscal & Monetary Outlook 2007 - SPJCM
 
Sectoral Economic Development Strategy
Sectoral Economic Development StrategySectoral Economic Development Strategy
Sectoral Economic Development Strategy
 
Real estatemarketreport 1q12
Real estatemarketreport 1q12Real estatemarketreport 1q12
Real estatemarketreport 1q12
 
Vietnam market research
Vietnam market research Vietnam market research
Vietnam market research
 
Real estatemarketreport 1q12
Real estatemarketreport 1q12Real estatemarketreport 1q12
Real estatemarketreport 1q12
 
Infosys - Result Update
Infosys  - Result UpdateInfosys  - Result Update
Infosys - Result Update
 
Miroslav Strokendl: Conference on Foreign Investments 23rd November
Miroslav Strokendl: Conference on Foreign Investments 23rd November Miroslav Strokendl: Conference on Foreign Investments 23rd November
Miroslav Strokendl: Conference on Foreign Investments 23rd November
 
Acc ru1 qcy2010-230410
Acc ru1 qcy2010-230410Acc ru1 qcy2010-230410
Acc ru1 qcy2010-230410
 
Tbli Tokyo 2010 Vietnam Holding Ltd.
Tbli Tokyo 2010   Vietnam Holding Ltd.Tbli Tokyo 2010   Vietnam Holding Ltd.
Tbli Tokyo 2010 Vietnam Holding Ltd.
 
WEG 1Q10 Conference Call Presentation
WEG 1Q10 Conference Call PresentationWEG 1Q10 Conference Call Presentation
WEG 1Q10 Conference Call Presentation
 
Creating Value in Banking 2011
Creating Value in Banking 2011Creating Value in Banking 2011
Creating Value in Banking 2011
 
Vietnam Retail Market, 2012
Vietnam Retail Market, 2012Vietnam Retail Market, 2012
Vietnam Retail Market, 2012
 
Impact of 2008 crisis on mobile operators in Nordic-Baltic region_presentation
Impact of 2008 crisis on mobile operators in Nordic-Baltic region_presentationImpact of 2008 crisis on mobile operators in Nordic-Baltic region_presentation
Impact of 2008 crisis on mobile operators in Nordic-Baltic region_presentation
 
Gartner Report
Gartner ReportGartner Report
Gartner Report
 
Third Quarter Results FY 2010-11:Investor Release
Third Quarter Results FY 2010-11:Investor Release Third Quarter Results FY 2010-11:Investor Release
Third Quarter Results FY 2010-11:Investor Release
 
Ator 2012 11.06.2012
Ator 2012 11.06.2012Ator 2012 11.06.2012
Ator 2012 11.06.2012
 
Recent Economic Developments in Latvia and Medium-term Outlook
Recent Economic Developments in Latvia and Medium-term OutlookRecent Economic Developments in Latvia and Medium-term Outlook
Recent Economic Developments in Latvia and Medium-term Outlook
 

Andere mochten auch

Growth Week 2011: Ideas for Growth Session 9 - Climate Change, Environment, N...
Growth Week 2011: Ideas for Growth Session 9 - Climate Change, Environment, N...Growth Week 2011: Ideas for Growth Session 9 - Climate Change, Environment, N...
Growth Week 2011: Ideas for Growth Session 9 - Climate Change, Environment, N...The International Growth Centre
 
Growth Week 2011: Ideas for Growth Session 6 - Human Capital
Growth Week 2011: Ideas for Growth Session 6 - Human CapitalGrowth Week 2011: Ideas for Growth Session 6 - Human Capital
Growth Week 2011: Ideas for Growth Session 6 - Human CapitalThe International Growth Centre
 
Reassessing the EU Monetary and Fiscal Framework
Reassessing the EU Monetary and Fiscal FrameworkReassessing the EU Monetary and Fiscal Framework
Reassessing the EU Monetary and Fiscal FrameworkADEMU_Project
 
LinkedIn SlideShare: Knowledge, Well-Presented
LinkedIn SlideShare: Knowledge, Well-PresentedLinkedIn SlideShare: Knowledge, Well-Presented
LinkedIn SlideShare: Knowledge, Well-PresentedSlideShare
 

Andere mochten auch (8)

Growth Week 2011: Ideas for Growth Session 7 - Finance
Growth Week 2011: Ideas for Growth Session 7 - FinanceGrowth Week 2011: Ideas for Growth Session 7 - Finance
Growth Week 2011: Ideas for Growth Session 7 - Finance
 
Growth Week 2011: Ideas for Growth Session 10 - Trade
Growth Week 2011: Ideas for Growth Session 10 - TradeGrowth Week 2011: Ideas for Growth Session 10 - Trade
Growth Week 2011: Ideas for Growth Session 10 - Trade
 
Growth Week 2011: Ideas for Growth Session 9 - Climate Change, Environment, N...
Growth Week 2011: Ideas for Growth Session 9 - Climate Change, Environment, N...Growth Week 2011: Ideas for Growth Session 9 - Climate Change, Environment, N...
Growth Week 2011: Ideas for Growth Session 9 - Climate Change, Environment, N...
 
Growth Week 2011: Ideas for Growth Session 6 - Human Capital
Growth Week 2011: Ideas for Growth Session 6 - Human CapitalGrowth Week 2011: Ideas for Growth Session 6 - Human Capital
Growth Week 2011: Ideas for Growth Session 6 - Human Capital
 
Growth Week 2011: Country Session 11 - Pakistan
Growth Week 2011: Country Session 11 - PakistanGrowth Week 2011: Country Session 11 - Pakistan
Growth Week 2011: Country Session 11 - Pakistan
 
Growth Week 2011: Country Session 9 - Zambia
Growth Week 2011: Country Session 9 - ZambiaGrowth Week 2011: Country Session 9 - Zambia
Growth Week 2011: Country Session 9 - Zambia
 
Reassessing the EU Monetary and Fiscal Framework
Reassessing the EU Monetary and Fiscal FrameworkReassessing the EU Monetary and Fiscal Framework
Reassessing the EU Monetary and Fiscal Framework
 
LinkedIn SlideShare: Knowledge, Well-Presented
LinkedIn SlideShare: Knowledge, Well-PresentedLinkedIn SlideShare: Knowledge, Well-Presented
LinkedIn SlideShare: Knowledge, Well-Presented
 

Ähnlich wie Growth Week 2011: Country Session 5 - Tanzania

Invest in Bosnia and Herzegovina
Invest in Bosnia and HerzegovinaInvest in Bosnia and Herzegovina
Invest in Bosnia and HerzegovinaAmel Kovacevic
 
Indian Textile Industry
Indian Textile IndustryIndian Textile Industry
Indian Textile IndustryAnuj Diwakar
 
RadiografiaDelSectorPublico_20220623.pdf
RadiografiaDelSectorPublico_20220623.pdfRadiografiaDelSectorPublico_20220623.pdf
RadiografiaDelSectorPublico_20220623.pdfEXANTE
 
Cambodia's economic growth path and competitiveness
Cambodia's economic growth path and competitivenessCambodia's economic growth path and competitiveness
Cambodia's economic growth path and competitivenessTCI Network
 
Briefing on Myanmar National Planning Law (FYI 2014-2015)
Briefing on  Myanmar National Planning Law (FYI 2014-2015)Briefing on  Myanmar National Planning Law (FYI 2014-2015)
Briefing on Myanmar National Planning Law (FYI 2014-2015)Wunna Htun
 
Tcell presentation post_q1_may_v5
Tcell presentation post_q1_may_v5Tcell presentation post_q1_may_v5
Tcell presentation post_q1_may_v5ecemulu
 
Hall 2C Tuesday 09h30 - Dr Tebogo Makube
Hall 2C Tuesday 09h30 - Dr Tebogo MakubeHall 2C Tuesday 09h30 - Dr Tebogo Makube
Hall 2C Tuesday 09h30 - Dr Tebogo Makube7391456
 
Greece Financial Crisis - Case Study
Greece Financial Crisis - Case StudyGreece Financial Crisis - Case Study
Greece Financial Crisis - Case StudyMithrill Alex
 
Highlights 2010 11 Economic Outlook
Highlights 2010 11 Economic OutlookHighlights 2010 11 Economic Outlook
Highlights 2010 11 Economic Outlookgauravkakran
 
Revenue Statistics in Africa: First edition
Revenue Statistics in Africa: First editionRevenue Statistics in Africa: First edition
Revenue Statistics in Africa: First editionOECDtax
 
Launch OECD report on Productivity and jobs in a globalised world
Launch OECD report on Productivity and jobs in a globalised worldLaunch OECD report on Productivity and jobs in a globalised world
Launch OECD report on Productivity and jobs in a globalised worldOECDregions
 
GUYANA ECONOMY
GUYANA ECONOMYGUYANA ECONOMY
GUYANA ECONOMYSuraj Zare
 
Greece Economic Report by Bloomberg
Greece Economic Report by BloombergGreece Economic Report by Bloomberg
Greece Economic Report by BloombergTheodore Stanton
 
Economic Growth and Development in Ethiopia
Economic Growth and Development in EthiopiaEconomic Growth and Development in Ethiopia
Economic Growth and Development in Ethiopiatutor2u
 

Ähnlich wie Growth Week 2011: Country Session 5 - Tanzania (20)

Invest in Bosnia and Herzegovina
Invest in Bosnia and HerzegovinaInvest in Bosnia and Herzegovina
Invest in Bosnia and Herzegovina
 
Andrew Mold "The African Continental Free Trade Area: How will economic distr...
Andrew Mold "The African Continental Free Trade Area: How will economic distr...Andrew Mold "The African Continental Free Trade Area: How will economic distr...
Andrew Mold "The African Continental Free Trade Area: How will economic distr...
 
Indian Textile Industry
Indian Textile IndustryIndian Textile Industry
Indian Textile Industry
 
RadiografiaDelSectorPublico_20220623.pdf
RadiografiaDelSectorPublico_20220623.pdfRadiografiaDelSectorPublico_20220623.pdf
RadiografiaDelSectorPublico_20220623.pdf
 
Cambodia's economic growth path and competitiveness
Cambodia's economic growth path and competitivenessCambodia's economic growth path and competitiveness
Cambodia's economic growth path and competitiveness
 
Briefing on Myanmar National Planning Law (FYI 2014-2015)
Briefing on  Myanmar National Planning Law (FYI 2014-2015)Briefing on  Myanmar National Planning Law (FYI 2014-2015)
Briefing on Myanmar National Planning Law (FYI 2014-2015)
 
Tcell presentation post_q1_may_v5
Tcell presentation post_q1_may_v5Tcell presentation post_q1_may_v5
Tcell presentation post_q1_may_v5
 
Hall 2C Tuesday 09h30 - Dr Tebogo Makube
Hall 2C Tuesday 09h30 - Dr Tebogo MakubeHall 2C Tuesday 09h30 - Dr Tebogo Makube
Hall 2C Tuesday 09h30 - Dr Tebogo Makube
 
Piaggio Group - Full Year 2011 Financial Results
Piaggio Group - Full Year 2011 Financial ResultsPiaggio Group - Full Year 2011 Financial Results
Piaggio Group - Full Year 2011 Financial Results
 
Indian Ocean Region Seychelles
Indian Ocean Region SeychellesIndian Ocean Region Seychelles
Indian Ocean Region Seychelles
 
Greece Financial Crisis - Case Study
Greece Financial Crisis - Case StudyGreece Financial Crisis - Case Study
Greece Financial Crisis - Case Study
 
Highlights 2010 11 Economic Outlook
Highlights 2010 11 Economic OutlookHighlights 2010 11 Economic Outlook
Highlights 2010 11 Economic Outlook
 
Revenue Statistics in Africa: First edition
Revenue Statistics in Africa: First editionRevenue Statistics in Africa: First edition
Revenue Statistics in Africa: First edition
 
Launch OECD report on Productivity and jobs in a globalised world
Launch OECD report on Productivity and jobs in a globalised worldLaunch OECD report on Productivity and jobs in a globalised world
Launch OECD report on Productivity and jobs in a globalised world
 
MTMPS Chapter 4.pptx
MTMPS Chapter 4.pptxMTMPS Chapter 4.pptx
MTMPS Chapter 4.pptx
 
Unctad fdi 2010
Unctad fdi 2010Unctad fdi 2010
Unctad fdi 2010
 
GUYANA ECONOMY
GUYANA ECONOMYGUYANA ECONOMY
GUYANA ECONOMY
 
Greece Economic Report by Bloomberg
Greece Economic Report by BloombergGreece Economic Report by Bloomberg
Greece Economic Report by Bloomberg
 
Economic Outlook - May 2012
Economic Outlook - May 2012Economic Outlook - May 2012
Economic Outlook - May 2012
 
Economic Growth and Development in Ethiopia
Economic Growth and Development in EthiopiaEconomic Growth and Development in Ethiopia
Economic Growth and Development in Ethiopia
 

Mehr von The International Growth Centre

Growth Week 2011: Ideas for Growth Session 5 - Governance, Accountability and...
Growth Week 2011: Ideas for Growth Session 5 - Governance, Accountability and...Growth Week 2011: Ideas for Growth Session 5 - Governance, Accountability and...
Growth Week 2011: Ideas for Growth Session 5 - Governance, Accountability and...The International Growth Centre
 
Growth Week 2011: Ideas for Growth Session 4 - Firm Capabilities
Growth Week 2011: Ideas for Growth Session 4 - Firm CapabilitiesGrowth Week 2011: Ideas for Growth Session 4 - Firm Capabilities
Growth Week 2011: Ideas for Growth Session 4 - Firm CapabilitiesThe International Growth Centre
 
Growth Week 2011: Ideas for Growth Session 3 - Infrastructure and Urbanization
Growth Week 2011: Ideas for Growth Session 3 - Infrastructure and UrbanizationGrowth Week 2011: Ideas for Growth Session 3 - Infrastructure and Urbanization
Growth Week 2011: Ideas for Growth Session 3 - Infrastructure and UrbanizationThe International Growth Centre
 
Growth Week 2011: Ideas for Growth Session 2 - Macroeconomics - 'Internationa...
Growth Week 2011: Ideas for Growth Session 2 - Macroeconomics - 'Internationa...Growth Week 2011: Ideas for Growth Session 2 - Macroeconomics - 'Internationa...
Growth Week 2011: Ideas for Growth Session 2 - Macroeconomics - 'Internationa...The International Growth Centre
 
Growth Week 2011: Ideas for Growth Session 1 - Agriculture
Growth Week 2011: Ideas for Growth Session 1 - AgricultureGrowth Week 2011: Ideas for Growth Session 1 - Agriculture
Growth Week 2011: Ideas for Growth Session 1 - AgricultureThe International Growth Centre
 

Mehr von The International Growth Centre (12)

Growth Week 2011: Ideas for Growth Session 5 - Governance, Accountability and...
Growth Week 2011: Ideas for Growth Session 5 - Governance, Accountability and...Growth Week 2011: Ideas for Growth Session 5 - Governance, Accountability and...
Growth Week 2011: Ideas for Growth Session 5 - Governance, Accountability and...
 
Growth Week 2011: Ideas for Growth Session 4 - Firm Capabilities
Growth Week 2011: Ideas for Growth Session 4 - Firm CapabilitiesGrowth Week 2011: Ideas for Growth Session 4 - Firm Capabilities
Growth Week 2011: Ideas for Growth Session 4 - Firm Capabilities
 
Growth Week 2011: Country Session 10 - India-Central
Growth Week 2011: Country Session 10 - India-CentralGrowth Week 2011: Country Session 10 - India-Central
Growth Week 2011: Country Session 10 - India-Central
 
Growth Week 2011: Country Session 8 - Sierra Leone
Growth Week 2011: Country Session 8 - Sierra LeoneGrowth Week 2011: Country Session 8 - Sierra Leone
Growth Week 2011: Country Session 8 - Sierra Leone
 
Growth Week 2011: Country Session 7 - Bangladesh
Growth Week 2011: Country Session 7 - BangladeshGrowth Week 2011: Country Session 7 - Bangladesh
Growth Week 2011: Country Session 7 - Bangladesh
 
Growth Week 2011: Country Session 1 - Mozambique
Growth Week 2011: Country Session 1 - MozambiqueGrowth Week 2011: Country Session 1 - Mozambique
Growth Week 2011: Country Session 1 - Mozambique
 
Growth Week 2011: Country Session 6 - Rwanda
Growth Week 2011: Country Session 6 - RwandaGrowth Week 2011: Country Session 6 - Rwanda
Growth Week 2011: Country Session 6 - Rwanda
 
Growth Week 2011: Country Session 4 – India-Bihar
Growth Week 2011: Country Session 4 – India-BiharGrowth Week 2011: Country Session 4 – India-Bihar
Growth Week 2011: Country Session 4 – India-Bihar
 
Growth Week 2011: Country Session 2 - Ethiopia
Growth Week 2011: Country Session 2 - EthiopiaGrowth Week 2011: Country Session 2 - Ethiopia
Growth Week 2011: Country Session 2 - Ethiopia
 
Growth Week 2011: Ideas for Growth Session 3 - Infrastructure and Urbanization
Growth Week 2011: Ideas for Growth Session 3 - Infrastructure and UrbanizationGrowth Week 2011: Ideas for Growth Session 3 - Infrastructure and Urbanization
Growth Week 2011: Ideas for Growth Session 3 - Infrastructure and Urbanization
 
Growth Week 2011: Ideas for Growth Session 2 - Macroeconomics - 'Internationa...
Growth Week 2011: Ideas for Growth Session 2 - Macroeconomics - 'Internationa...Growth Week 2011: Ideas for Growth Session 2 - Macroeconomics - 'Internationa...
Growth Week 2011: Ideas for Growth Session 2 - Macroeconomics - 'Internationa...
 
Growth Week 2011: Ideas for Growth Session 1 - Agriculture
Growth Week 2011: Ideas for Growth Session 1 - AgricultureGrowth Week 2011: Ideas for Growth Session 1 - Agriculture
Growth Week 2011: Ideas for Growth Session 1 - Agriculture
 

Kürzlich hochgeladen

Vani Magazine - Quarterly Magazine of Seshadripuram Educational Trust
Vani Magazine - Quarterly Magazine of Seshadripuram Educational TrustVani Magazine - Quarterly Magazine of Seshadripuram Educational Trust
Vani Magazine - Quarterly Magazine of Seshadripuram Educational TrustSavipriya Raghavendra
 
Protein Structure - threading Protein modelling pptx
Protein Structure - threading Protein modelling pptxProtein Structure - threading Protein modelling pptx
Protein Structure - threading Protein modelling pptxvidhisharma994099
 
Over the counter (OTC)- Sale, rational use.pptx
Over the counter (OTC)- Sale, rational use.pptxOver the counter (OTC)- Sale, rational use.pptx
Over the counter (OTC)- Sale, rational use.pptxraviapr7
 
10 Topics For MBA Project Report [HR].pdf
10 Topics For MBA Project Report [HR].pdf10 Topics For MBA Project Report [HR].pdf
10 Topics For MBA Project Report [HR].pdfJayanti Pande
 
What is the Future of QuickBooks DeskTop?
What is the Future of QuickBooks DeskTop?What is the Future of QuickBooks DeskTop?
What is the Future of QuickBooks DeskTop?TechSoup
 
The basics of sentences session 10pptx.pptx
The basics of sentences session 10pptx.pptxThe basics of sentences session 10pptx.pptx
The basics of sentences session 10pptx.pptxheathfieldcps1
 
SOLIDE WASTE in Cameroon,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,.pptx
SOLIDE WASTE in Cameroon,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,.pptxSOLIDE WASTE in Cameroon,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,.pptx
SOLIDE WASTE in Cameroon,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,.pptxSyedNadeemGillANi
 
Ultra structure and life cycle of Plasmodium.pptx
Ultra structure and life cycle of Plasmodium.pptxUltra structure and life cycle of Plasmodium.pptx
Ultra structure and life cycle of Plasmodium.pptxDr. Asif Anas
 
3.21.24 The Origins of Black Power.pptx
3.21.24  The Origins of Black Power.pptx3.21.24  The Origins of Black Power.pptx
3.21.24 The Origins of Black Power.pptxmary850239
 
Optical Fibre and It's Applications.pptx
Optical Fibre and It's Applications.pptxOptical Fibre and It's Applications.pptx
Optical Fibre and It's Applications.pptxPurva Nikam
 
Easter in the USA presentation by Chloe.
Easter in the USA presentation by Chloe.Easter in the USA presentation by Chloe.
Easter in the USA presentation by Chloe.EnglishCEIPdeSigeiro
 
Education and training program in the hospital APR.pptx
Education and training program in the hospital APR.pptxEducation and training program in the hospital APR.pptx
Education and training program in the hospital APR.pptxraviapr7
 
How to Create a Toggle Button in Odoo 17
How to Create a Toggle Button in Odoo 17How to Create a Toggle Button in Odoo 17
How to Create a Toggle Button in Odoo 17Celine George
 
How to Solve Singleton Error in the Odoo 17
How to Solve Singleton Error in the  Odoo 17How to Solve Singleton Error in the  Odoo 17
How to Solve Singleton Error in the Odoo 17Celine George
 
A gentle introduction to Artificial Intelligence
A gentle introduction to Artificial IntelligenceA gentle introduction to Artificial Intelligence
A gentle introduction to Artificial IntelligenceApostolos Syropoulos
 
Riddhi Kevadiya. WILLIAM SHAKESPEARE....
Riddhi Kevadiya. WILLIAM SHAKESPEARE....Riddhi Kevadiya. WILLIAM SHAKESPEARE....
Riddhi Kevadiya. WILLIAM SHAKESPEARE....Riddhi Kevadiya
 
Work Experience for psp3 portfolio sasha
Work Experience for psp3 portfolio sashaWork Experience for psp3 portfolio sasha
Work Experience for psp3 portfolio sashasashalaycock03
 
Diploma in Nursing Admission Test Question Solution 2023.pdf
Diploma in Nursing Admission Test Question Solution 2023.pdfDiploma in Nursing Admission Test Question Solution 2023.pdf
Diploma in Nursing Admission Test Question Solution 2023.pdfMohonDas
 
2024.03.23 What do successful readers do - Sandy Millin for PARK.pptx
2024.03.23 What do successful readers do - Sandy Millin for PARK.pptx2024.03.23 What do successful readers do - Sandy Millin for PARK.pptx
2024.03.23 What do successful readers do - Sandy Millin for PARK.pptxSandy Millin
 

Kürzlich hochgeladen (20)

Vani Magazine - Quarterly Magazine of Seshadripuram Educational Trust
Vani Magazine - Quarterly Magazine of Seshadripuram Educational TrustVani Magazine - Quarterly Magazine of Seshadripuram Educational Trust
Vani Magazine - Quarterly Magazine of Seshadripuram Educational Trust
 
Protein Structure - threading Protein modelling pptx
Protein Structure - threading Protein modelling pptxProtein Structure - threading Protein modelling pptx
Protein Structure - threading Protein modelling pptx
 
Over the counter (OTC)- Sale, rational use.pptx
Over the counter (OTC)- Sale, rational use.pptxOver the counter (OTC)- Sale, rational use.pptx
Over the counter (OTC)- Sale, rational use.pptx
 
10 Topics For MBA Project Report [HR].pdf
10 Topics For MBA Project Report [HR].pdf10 Topics For MBA Project Report [HR].pdf
10 Topics For MBA Project Report [HR].pdf
 
What is the Future of QuickBooks DeskTop?
What is the Future of QuickBooks DeskTop?What is the Future of QuickBooks DeskTop?
What is the Future of QuickBooks DeskTop?
 
The basics of sentences session 10pptx.pptx
The basics of sentences session 10pptx.pptxThe basics of sentences session 10pptx.pptx
The basics of sentences session 10pptx.pptx
 
SOLIDE WASTE in Cameroon,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,.pptx
SOLIDE WASTE in Cameroon,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,.pptxSOLIDE WASTE in Cameroon,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,.pptx
SOLIDE WASTE in Cameroon,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,.pptx
 
Ultra structure and life cycle of Plasmodium.pptx
Ultra structure and life cycle of Plasmodium.pptxUltra structure and life cycle of Plasmodium.pptx
Ultra structure and life cycle of Plasmodium.pptx
 
3.21.24 The Origins of Black Power.pptx
3.21.24  The Origins of Black Power.pptx3.21.24  The Origins of Black Power.pptx
3.21.24 The Origins of Black Power.pptx
 
Optical Fibre and It's Applications.pptx
Optical Fibre and It's Applications.pptxOptical Fibre and It's Applications.pptx
Optical Fibre and It's Applications.pptx
 
Finals of Kant get Marx 2.0 : a general politics quiz
Finals of Kant get Marx 2.0 : a general politics quizFinals of Kant get Marx 2.0 : a general politics quiz
Finals of Kant get Marx 2.0 : a general politics quiz
 
Easter in the USA presentation by Chloe.
Easter in the USA presentation by Chloe.Easter in the USA presentation by Chloe.
Easter in the USA presentation by Chloe.
 
Education and training program in the hospital APR.pptx
Education and training program in the hospital APR.pptxEducation and training program in the hospital APR.pptx
Education and training program in the hospital APR.pptx
 
How to Create a Toggle Button in Odoo 17
How to Create a Toggle Button in Odoo 17How to Create a Toggle Button in Odoo 17
How to Create a Toggle Button in Odoo 17
 
How to Solve Singleton Error in the Odoo 17
How to Solve Singleton Error in the  Odoo 17How to Solve Singleton Error in the  Odoo 17
How to Solve Singleton Error in the Odoo 17
 
A gentle introduction to Artificial Intelligence
A gentle introduction to Artificial IntelligenceA gentle introduction to Artificial Intelligence
A gentle introduction to Artificial Intelligence
 
Riddhi Kevadiya. WILLIAM SHAKESPEARE....
Riddhi Kevadiya. WILLIAM SHAKESPEARE....Riddhi Kevadiya. WILLIAM SHAKESPEARE....
Riddhi Kevadiya. WILLIAM SHAKESPEARE....
 
Work Experience for psp3 portfolio sasha
Work Experience for psp3 portfolio sashaWork Experience for psp3 portfolio sasha
Work Experience for psp3 portfolio sasha
 
Diploma in Nursing Admission Test Question Solution 2023.pdf
Diploma in Nursing Admission Test Question Solution 2023.pdfDiploma in Nursing Admission Test Question Solution 2023.pdf
Diploma in Nursing Admission Test Question Solution 2023.pdf
 
2024.03.23 What do successful readers do - Sandy Millin for PARK.pptx
2024.03.23 What do successful readers do - Sandy Millin for PARK.pptx2024.03.23 What do successful readers do - Sandy Millin for PARK.pptx
2024.03.23 What do successful readers do - Sandy Millin for PARK.pptx
 

Growth Week 2011: Country Session 5 - Tanzania

  • 1. The East African Monetary Union: Progress and Challenges IGC Growth Week, 20 September 2011 Christopher Adam – Oxford and IGC Pantaleo Kessy – Bank of Tanzania Stephen A. O’Connell – Swarthmore and IGC
  • 2. Outline 1. Context, background and initial conditions 2. Pre-conditions for effective monetary union 3. Transitional Arrangements • Options • Capital mobility and a grid system • Design considerations • Exit options
  • 4. 1948 The new EAC The EA High 2001 Commission Kenya Kenya Tanzania Tanganyika Uganda Uganda 2007 Burundi Rwanda 1967 The EAC 2010 Kenya Common Tanzania Market Uganda Protocol Targets 2012 1977 Monetary The EAC Union disbands Kenyatta 2015 Nyerere Political Idi Amin Federation
  • 5. Milestones • The Treaty for the establishment of the (new) EAC was signed on November 1999 and the EAC was formally launched in January 2001. The treat provides for the following stages for economic and political cooperation: • (1) East Africa Custom Union • Established in 2005 focusing mainly on merchandise trade • (2) EAC Common Market (free movement of factors of production - labour and capital) • The Protocol on the Establishment of the EAC Common Market entered into force on 1st July 2010 • (3) East Africa Monetary Union [EAMU] • EAC member states are currently working towards an agreement on a protocol for a monetary union by 2012 • (4) EAC Political Federation • No time set yet – some indications of 2015
  • 6. EAC Basic Indicators Share of Head- Share of Real GDP Exports of Popula- EAC5 GDP count agricul- Trade Net ODA per capita goods and Country tion at official poverty ture in deficit (% of ($2005 services (millions) exchange rate (at GDP (% GDP) imports) PPP) (% GDP) rates nat P-line (%) Burundi 356 8.3 1.8 68.1 34.8 10.7 36.2 102.0 Kenya 1,428 39.8 39.7 46.6 22.6 25.2 13.1 15.4 Rwanda 1,032 10.0 7.1 56.9 34.2 11.7 17.5 61.0 Tanzania 1,237 43.7 29.7 35.7 28.8 23.2 11.9 37.2 Uganda 1,105 32.7 21.7 31.1 24.7 23.4 11.2 32.0 additional macro indicators Present Gov’t CPI Per-capita ER depr Reserves value of Total debt deficit incl inflation M2 growth rate, (months Country external service grants rate (% GDP) 2005-09 2005-10 of debt (% XGS) 2007-09 2005-09 (%) (%) imports) (% GNI) (% GDP) (%) Burundi 36.7 13.4 13.3 7.2 -4.1 12.0 7.2 7.2 Kenya 42.7 19.4 5.0 4.0 -4.4 14.0 4.0 4.0 Rwanda 16.2 8.3 4.7 5.8 -1.3 10.6 5.8 5.8 Tanzania 28.8 13.5 3.5 5.3 -3.5 8.4 5.3 5.3 Uganda 20.6 8.2 2.0 6.4 -2.1 9.4 6.4 6.4 Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators. All except KEN are HIPC countries.
  • 7. EAMU – anticipated benefits • EAMU will replace the five individual country currencies with a common currency, to be managed by an East African Central Bank (EACB). • The proposed EAMU, may potentially offer economic benefits to the region: – Elimination of intra-union exchange risk in trade and finance – Larger and more competitive market => more attractive to domestic and foreign investment – (Enforced ) gains in coordinated economic management – Potential political benefits e.g. increased collective political status in the international arena
  • 8. Feasibility and initial conditions I: intra-regional trade • The five countries trade more with non-EAC countries, both on exports and import side • The gains in exchange rate certainty and in transaction cost reduction by having a common currency are unlikely to be substantial at this stage. Exports to EAC as a ratio of total exports 35 Imports from EAC as a ratio of total imports 40 30 35 25 30 20 25 % 15 20 % 15 10 10 5 5 0 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Tanzania Kenya Rwanda Tanzania Kenya Rwanda Burundi Uganda Burundi Uganda
  • 9. Feasibility and initial conditions II: external shocks • The cost of loss of independent monetary and exchange rate policy depend, to a large extent, on the way in which exogenous shocks affect the member countries. Emerging difference in production / trade structures and in aid dependence increase the likelihood of asymmetric shocks • Rapidly changing natural resource dependence (esp if EAC included South Sudan) • Very different levels and trajectories of reliance on aid
  • 10. Feasibility and initial conditions III: mitigation Labour mobility • Despite EAC Common Market Protocol, the region does not yet have free flow of labour . Capital mobility • Significant differences on de facto measures. Uganda and Tanzania highly open, Tanzania, Rwanda and Burundi Compensatory fiscal structures • Limited capacity at present…
  • 12. Inflation convergence in the EAC Home CPI relative to Kenyan CPI 600 % deviation over decade 0 200 -200 400 1980 1990 2000 2010 Year dot: Burundi / diamond: Rwanda / square: Tanzania / +: Uganda
  • 13. Exchange rate convergence in the EAC Home currency per Kenya shilling 800 600 % deviation over decade 0 200 400 -200 1980 1990 2000 2010 Year dot: Burundi / diamond: Rwanda / square: Tanzania / +: Uganda
  • 14. Part II: Making it happen
  • 15. Process and Models • May 2010 Monetary Affairs Committee (MAC) of the EAC commissions a study of transition to monetary union • The big design issues: – Post-union monetary framework (CBK and IMF) – Exchange rate arrangements during the transition (BoT and IGC) – Convergence criteria for transition and union (BoU and IMF) • Not an OCA study (literature suggests not a natural OCA). • Not much global experience to guide transition. A European Central Bank study commissioned by the MAC in 2009 relies on Europe’s experience (which spanned 30 years and is now under major stress)
  • 16. Few global comparisons • CFA zone, RMA continued colonial-era arrangements: no transition from independent national currencies. • Euro area the dominant model, but ... – Advanced economies with high intra-regional trade – Long history of exchange rate pegging – Germany a very credible anchor • Gulf Cooperation Council ‘close’ to union: oil economies already successful with relatively hard US$ pegs
  • 17. Initial conditions • All countries moving towards the same fundamental exchange rate policy – ‘managed float with no pre-determined path’ but at differential speeds. [Figure 1]. Currently, Rwanda ‘crawl-like’ and Burundi ‘stabilized’. • Forex market ‘broadly competitive’ in Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania. • Central bank does not play decisive role in normal operations of market (although could, if required or desired). • Markets in transition in Rwanda and Burundi. Fewer private players => less competitive • Central bank more decisive role b/c relative size of aid flows in forex markets.
  • 18. EAC Nominal Exchange Rate Indices against US$ All currencies indexed to 100 in December 2005 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 Percent deviation from 2005m12 IMF Classification IMF Classification BUR: Stabilized / KEN: Floating / RWA: Crawl-like / TZA: Floating / Uganda: Floating BUR: Stabilized / KEN: Floating / RWA: Crawl-like / TZA: Floating / Uganda: Floating 2005m7 2006m7 2007m7 2008m7 2009m7 2010m7 Burundi Kenya Rwanda Tanzania Uganda back
  • 19. Issues at convergence • The mechanics of establishing conversion rates – A variety of empirical ‘equilibrium real exchange rate’ approaches, none very satisfactory – How far ahead should ‘final’ conversion rates be established? If the conversion step is credible, market rates should converge. • Misalignment concerns – Short-run macroeconomic tensions if wages and/or prices are sticky and conversion rates imply different initial degrees of misalignment. – Risk of competitive devaluations in conversion phase. – Post-union shifts in equilibrium real exchange rates due to differential resource endowments.
  • 20. Exchange rate options for the transition phase • A transitional arrangement needs to constitute a viable monetary policy framework. Alternative arrangements differ in 2 main dimensions: – How do they provide a nominal anchor? (Country by country, can think of 3 leading anchors: a monetary aggregate, the exchange rate, or an inflation forecast) – Where do they vest policy sovereignty? Monetary policy Option Nominal anchor sovereignty 1 – Float National money base and/or inflation targets National 2 – External grid National exchange rate pegs National but limited Center: money base and/or inflation 3 – Delegated anchor Anchor country Periphery: national exchange rate pegs Collectively determined money base and/or Collective with possible 4 – Collective anchor inflation targets coexisting with limited mutual reserve pooling exchange rate variability Collectively determined money and/or inflation Weakly collective no 5 – Collective float targets reserve pooling
  • 21. Transitional Options • Five options – From ‘coordinated status quo to ‘full delegation’ • Float • External Grid • Delegated Anchor • Collective Anchor • Collective Float
  • 22. Option I: A Float System Design • Countries maintain current (managed) floating regimes • Adopt a common inflation target (with harmonized inflation measures) • No explicit commitments on exchange rates • Commitment to fiscal and macro convergence and increased information sharing and coordination. Conversion • Once all countries are in agreed fiscal and macro ‘convergence zone’, conversion date announced (ideally within 6 months) and conversion rates between national currencies and EACU established.
  • 23. Option II: External Grid Design • Each Partner state adopts a crawling (or fixed) band around a global currency, most obviously the US dollar. • Three choices Allows cross- – Rate of crawl of central rate (c) rates between any two Partner – Initial width of band around central rate (b). states to move – Rate at which band is narrowed +/- 2b% Conversion • As conversion approaches (subject again to meeting agreed fiscal and macro convergence criteria) bands are progressively reduced, eventually to zero on conversion. • The EACU emerges as a hard peg to the US dollar
  • 24. Option III: Delegated Anchor Design • Countries delegate one country (explicitly or implicitly) to maintain a strong domestic anchor. • Each other country commits to peg its own currency to that of the delegated country’s currency. • Commitments required for coordinated forex intervention to maintain all currencies within their bands. Conversion • As conversion approaches (subject again to meeting agreed fiscal and macro convergence criteria) bands around delegated currency are progressively reduced, eventually to zero on conversion. • Supranational EACB emerges to take over responsibility from delegated country, with all monetary discretion removed from Partner State central banks.
  • 25. Option IV: Collective Anchor – the ECB proposal Design • Combines grid (plus band) system of delegated anchor (Option III) but with collectively provided anchor. • Authority delegated to supra-national body to design and run coordinated union-wide monetary policy capable of anchoring union-wide inflation. Conversion • As conversion approaches (subject again to meeting agreed fiscal and macro convergence criteria) bands are progressively reduced, eventually to zero on conversion. • The EACU emerges anchored by monetary policy run by supranational EACB, with all monetary discretion removed from Partner State central banks.
  • 26. Option V: Collective Float Design • No explicit commitment to exchange rate arrangements during transition (as Option I) • Explicit, formalized, delegation to representative supranational monetary authority (EAMI) of responsibility for designing and managing ‘shadow’ monetary regime for entire union.. Conversion • Once all countries are in agreed fiscal and macro ‘convergence zone’, conversion date announced (ideally within 6 months) and conversion rates between national currencies and EACU established. • The EACU emerges anchored by monetary policy run by supranational EACB, with all monetary discretion removed from Partner State central banks.
  • 27. Issues in Transition • Properties of alternatives – Degree of commitment to ER peg • Can partner states trade-off domestic and external objectives in transition? – Delegation of authority versus policy coordination (e.g. reserve pooling) – Robustness to weak fiscal control – Exit options and credibility
  • 28. Key questions for next phase • Should exchange rate commitments be part of the transition process? • What is the appropriate role of the supranational authority, in the transition and in planning for full union? • How rapidly should Partner States seek to fully harmonize inter-bank foreign exchange markets? • What methods should be used to establish conversion rates, and how far ahead should these be specified?
  • 29. Introduction Data Findings Conclusion Agricultural Productivity Growth in Tanzania Martina Kirchberger Department of Economics, University of Oxford 20 September 2011 IGC Growth Week
  • 30. Introduction Data Findings Conclusion Motivation 80% of Tanzania’s residents reside in rural areas and are highly dependent on agriculture Key to understand role of agriculture in economic growth in Tanzania Lack of evidence on trends in agricultural productivity 2 IGC commissioned studies on agricultural productivity growth "Poverty & Productivity: Small-Scale Farming in Tanzania 1991-2007" by Lokina, Nerman and Sandefur "Agricultural Productivity Growth in Kagera between 1991 and 2004" by Kirchberger and Mishili Present results from these two studies
  • 31. Introduction Data Findings Conclusion Main questions What was the role of the agricultural sector in poverty reduction and consumption growth? Has the output of major crops increased in the last 20 years? How much is due to increases in (i) productivity and (ii) land area used? Has the adoption of modern inputs increased?
  • 32. Introduction Data Findings Conclusion Outline 1 Data 2 Findings
  • 33. Introduction Data Findings Conclusion Data Sources Household Budget Surveys, 1991/92, 2000, 2007 National Sample Census of Agriculture, 2002-2003 National Panel Survey, 2008-2009 Rainfall data 1991-2004; 2002-2008 Kagera Health and Development Survey, 1991 and 2004 rounds
  • 34. Introduction Data Findings Conclusion Structural Change, 1991-2007
  • 35. Introduction Data Findings Conclusion Table: Evolution of Labor and Land Use in Kagera, 1991-2004 1991-2004 Change in Total Labor -16.0% Male (above 20yrs) 7.6% Female (above 20yrs) -5.2% Male (12-19yrs) -38.7% Female (12-19yrs) -43.8% Children (7-12yrs) -30.0% Change in Land -23.9% Change in Land/Labor -11.6%
  • 36. Introduction Data Findings Conclusion Consumption Growth
  • 37. Introduction Data Findings Conclusion Agricultural Production Proportion of farmers growing a particular crop is simliar National level Yields for major crops contracted (except rice paddy) output increases were mainly due to area expansion Kagera Value of output per worker or per acre contracted in most communities Some catch-up by pure farmers
  • 38. Introduction Data Findings Conclusion Agricultural Production Table: Output and Yield Growth Output Yield Planted crop in 2002/03 Maize 0.9% -1.3% 64.0% Paddy 3.6% 6.9% 15.2% Sorghum -0.1% -0.7% 11.9% Beans -4.1% -8.1% 24.9%
  • 39. Introduction Data Findings Conclusion Terms of trade Table: Consumer and Producer Prices Variable Mean Median Sd Laspeyre Consumer Price Deflator 4.01 4.12 0.55 Laspeyre Producer Price Deflator 3.42 3.27 1.16 Coffee 2.60 2.56 0.93 Maize 5.59 4.84 2.87 Beans 4.28 4.68 1.78 Cooking Bananas 5.02 4.33 3.03 Sweet Bananas 4.17 4.00 2.99 Other Bananas 4.25 3.77 2.84 Notes: Consumer and Producer price index and selected products for the 47 rural communities
  • 40. Introduction Data Findings Conclusion Adoption of ’modern inputs’ National level Low levels of adoption of improved farming techniques (improved seed, fertilizer, pesticides, irrigation of plots and tractors) No evidence for increases in productivity due to improved farming techniques Kagera Increase in the proportion of households using manure and hired labor Reduction in the proportion of households using fertilizer or pesticides
  • 41. Introduction Data Findings Conclusion Conclusion Occupational shifts away from agriculture made the largest contribution to consumption growth Crop composition of farmers remained fairly stable For maize and most other crops (except rice paddy) average yields have declined between 2002/03 and 2008/09; where output growth is present it is primarily attributable to area expansion and not productivity growth No evidence for increased adoption of improved farming techniques
  • 42. Introduction Data Findings Conclusion Thank you
  • 43. Attaining Middle Income Status Tanzania: Growth and Structural Transformation Required to reach Middle Income Status by 2025. Mujobu Moyo (IGC), Rebecca Simson (IGC), Arun Jacob (POPC) and Francois-Xavier de Mevius (POPC)
  • 44. Outline: 1. Aim of the document 2. Methodology 3. Changes required i. Sectoral shares and implied growth ii. Employment and urban population iii. Macroeconomic Indicators 4. Conclusions 5. Further issues
  • 45. 1. Aim  To analyse the growth path and structural change required if Tanzania is to become a lower middle income country by 2025.  To outline the challenges and trade-offs that Tanzania is likely to face in the next 15 years.  Used as a necessary tool to review the Tanzania Development Vision (TDV) 2025 and develop a Five Year Development Plan.
  • 46. 2. Methodology  Sample: Countries that reached lower middle income country (LMIC) status between 1960 and 2009  Analyze the structure of their economies in the year that they reached LMIC status.  We derive economic parameters for a model middle income country using the average values from our sample of countries.  For Tanzania to become a LMIC it will have to grow at a rate of 5% per capita or 8% overall assuming a 3% population growth
  • 47. (i). Sectoral shares and implied growth Change Tanzania MMIC 2025 Required 2009 (total) Industry (% of GDP) 24 30.7 27.92% Manufacture (% of GDP) 9.4 17.8 89.36% Service (% of GDP) 47.6 48.6 2.10% Agriculture (% of GDP) 28.4 20.7 -27.11% Sources: WDI database, ES 2009, own computation
  • 48. (iii). Employment and Population Tanzania MMIC Req. Ann. 2009 2025 Change Employ. in agric (% of total) 74.6 41.2 -3.64% Employ. in indust. (% of total) 5 20.5 9.22% Rural pop (% of total) 74 62.3 -1.07% Rur: Number of people (Millions) 30.12 37.64 1.40% Urb: Number of people (Millions) 10.58 22.78 4.91% Source: WDI (2010), ES (2009), ILFS (2006), own computation.
  • 49. (ii). Macroeconomic Indicators Tanzania 2009 MMIC Exports (% of GDP) 13.20 30.50 Imports (% of GDP) 29.00 37.40 Trade Deficit (% of GDP) 15.80 6.90 GFKF (% of GDP) 25.00 26.60 FDI (% of GDP) 3.90 4.50 G Dom S (% of GDP) 17.90 21.60 Net ODA (% of GNI) 12.90 4.50 Rev (% of GDP) 16.20 20.70 M2 (% of GDP) 27.50 51.50 Sources: WDI database, ES 2009, own computation
  • 50. 4. Conclusions  A fall in the share of agriculture and a rise in the share of manufacturing in GDP  Movement of labour from agriculture to manufacturing  Large productivity gains in agriculture  Rapid growth in exports, FDI, domestic savings, government revenue
  • 51. 5. Further Issues  The transition is already underway  Growth driven by the service, construction and mining sectors  Growth in the manufacturing sector is still slow  Natural resources potential  Growth paths and their implications
  • 52. Thank you very much for your attention.