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Preface


Welcome to the Analytics in Financial Services issue of FINsights!
Analytics. As the Information Age advances, business and social discussions about analytics abound.
Particularly among executives who are focused on profitable growth and risk management, the
effective use of analytics is increasingly viewed as critical to success.
In response to growing demand from our clients for information and services related to analytics, we've
dedicated this issue of FINsights, Infosys' thought leadership journal for the financial services industry, to
the topic of analytics. Indeed, this quarter we decided to do something special: we've merged the expertise
of Infosys and FICO to create a one-stop compendium of viewpoints, roadmaps and research pieces
addressing a topic which carries increasing importance in our data-drenched world.
The last decade has been characterized by an explosion in the volume and complexity of information.
Organizations have developed enormous data warehouses cataloguing everything from transaction
details to online activity, to dates of birth. For financial institutions, this abundance of information
represents both a powerful opportunity and a daunting challenge. When effectively organized,
analyzed, and acted upon, it can drive customer retention, reduce credit risk, and improve cross- and
up-selling. However, arriving at the point of proper application requires significant knowledge of and
investment in analytics—not only the science, but also the practice of applying it when facing
tightened regulatory, fiscal and other real-world challenges.
Though the potential of analytics is nearly unlimited, many organizations get caught up in the “whens”,
“wheres”, “whats” and “hows”. This issue has been created as an enabler—a tool for our readers to tap into
the true value of analytics and fully realize the potential of the information available to them. In it, we
address a variety of analytics trends and challenges which have emerged in recent years. From mastering
the intricacies of unstructured analytics, transaction analytics and adaptive analytics, to the governance
and management of information, this issue fuses the know-how of Infosys and FICO to help inform
your analytics strategy.
We hope you find the result of our partnership enlightening. Each article in this issue was forged from
a unique combination of domain expertise, discussions with clients and analysts, exhaustive research,
and inter-company reviews. Our contributors put a tremendous amount of time and thought into
each article, with the goal of producing an issue of lasting value – one that you keep close at hand in
the months ahead. From ideation to publication, this issue has been exciting to develop, read, and
discuss. We hope you'll agree and look forward to hearing your thoughts, comments and suggestions.
Ashok Vemuri
Member, Executive Council and Global Head, Banking & Capital Markets Practice
Infosys Technologies Limited
Charles ill
Executive Vice President, Sales and Marketing
FICO
Content


Preface
From the Editors’ Desk
Analytics for a New Decade
01. Post-Crisis Analytics: Six Imperatives                               05
02. Structuring the Unstructured Data: The Convergence of                13
    Structured and Unstructured Analytics
Revitalize Risk Management
03. Fusing Economic Forecasts with Credit Risk Analysis                  21
04. Unstructured Data Analytics for Enterprise Resilience                29
05. Why Real-Time Risk Decisions Require Transaction Analytics           37
Optimize to Drive Profits
06. Ten Questions to Ask of Your Optimization Solution                   47
07. Practical Challenges of Portfolio Optimization                       55
Understand Your Customer
08. Analytics in Cross Selling – A Retail Banking Perspective            61
09. Analytics as a Solution for Attrition                                69
10. Customer Spend Analysis: Unlocking the True Value of a Transaction   77
                    0
11. A Dynamic 360 Dashboard: A Solution for Comprehensive                85
    Customer Understanding
Fight Fraud More Effectively
12. Developing a Smarter Solution for Card Fraud Protection              93
13. Using Adaptive Analytics to Combat New Fraud Schemes                 103
14. To Fight Fraud, Connecting Decisions is a Must                       109
Improve Model Performance
15. Productizing Analytic Innovation: The Quest for Quality,             117
    Standardization and Technology Governance
Leverage Analytics Across Lines of Business
16. Analytics in Retail Banking: Why and How?                            125
17. Business Analytics in the Wealth Management Space                    135
From the Editor’s Desk


In 1992, Walmart launched the first terabyte database—the race for information was on. In the nearly
20 years since, large financial institutions and retailers alike have piled up data at a seemingly
exponential rate. 100 terabyte databases are no longer the exception, they are the norm. Businesses
across industries have been remarkably effective at amassing information. Where they have struggled,
however, is effectively and consistently utilizing this information to drive revenues and cut costs.
To make this data actionable, having a strong analytics program is a competitive necessity. From fraud
to risk to marketing to collections, financial institutions have been accelerating their use of analytics,
moving from rearview analysis of historical data to forward-looking predictive analytics—models that
are predictive and drive optimal decisions. A recent Forrester survey found that 31% of IT decision-
makers are implementing or planning to implement advanced analytics packages in the near future. If
your bank isn't investing, your competitors are.
The information race of the last 20 years has paved the way for an analytics race over the next decade.
Firms want to know with more certainty how their customers are going to behave—who is likely to
attrite, where they will spend next, and who is most likely to default on a mortgage or credit card—and
what actions will guide customer behavior in a mutually beneficial direction. How effectively
strategies are developed and implemented to extract and leverage information will likely define the
winners and losers of the financial services industry in the 21st century. In this day and age,
information is indeed power.
This issue of FINsights has been created to help your organization tap into the true value of analytics.
We start by looking forward, delving into the musts of a post-crisis business environment, the
potential of unstructured analytics, and the advances in credit risk analysis. From there, we provide a
series of roadmaps and recommendations for applying analytics to three of the major challenges
banks face today: fraud, improving understanding of the customer, and risk management. The issue
wraps up with a series of articles addressing analytics optimization, model performance, and vertical-
specific analytics. We hope this issue serves as not only an interesting read, but also as a tool in
launching and transforming your analytics initiatives.
Chisoo Lyons
Vice President,
Analytic Science,
FICO

Srinivas Prabhala
Delivery Manager,
Head BCM STAR Technology Group,
Infosys Technologies Limited
FINsights Editorial Board



         ASHOK VEMURI
         Member Executive Council,                     MOHIT JOSHI
         Senior Vice President and                     Global Head of Sales
         Head - Banking and Capital Markets Practice   Banking and Capital Markets Practice
         Infosys Technologies Limited                  Infosys Technologies Limited




         RAJESH MENON                                  LARS SKARI
         Partner                                       Partner and Practice Manager
         Infosys Consulting                            Infosys Consulting




         BALAGOVIND
         KESAVAN                                       CHISOO LYONS
         Head of Marketing                             Vice President
         Banking and Capital Markets Practice          Analytic Science
         Infosys Technologies Limited                  FICO




         SRINIVAS PRABHALA
         Delivery Manager
         Head BCM STAR Technology Group
         Infosys Technologies Limited
Analytics in
                                                                                    Financial
                                                                                    Services




01
Post-Crisis Analytics:                                                            Dr. Andrew Jennings
                                                                                  Chief Research Officer
                                                                                  and Head of FICO Labs,
Six Imperatives                                                                   FICO




While today's business press is filled with the message that analytics can help companies
“do business smarter”, the largest gains will come from using analytics smarter. FICO has
identified six imperatives for analytics in an environment where the past may no longer be
a good model for the future. At the core of these imperatives is the decision model—a working
model that explains the relationships between all the drivers of a decision and its results.
The decision model can be used in business planning and is a critical element in strategy
optimization. Using such tools is essential to understanding the business situation and
creating lasting business advantage.



                                                  More analytics does not mean more of the same,
   Introduction                                   however. Lessons learned from the crisis must
                                                  now shape the way organizations build and
One response to the severity of the recent        use analytics. Grave dangers lie in the naïve
economic crisis is an increasing demand           application of pre-packaged analytic techniques.
for analytics. Forrester Research predicts that
the market for predictive analytics and data      With that in mind, this article describes six
mining will grow at a rapid pace to US $1.8       ways analytics needs to change to drive business
billion by 2014.                                  performance to higher levels.
buy a particular product, which related
     1. Turn the “360-degree
        Customer view” Inside Out                  products are they most likely to buy within a
                                                   specific range of time? Which channels does
    The new normal requires that companies will    this customer use most, and does that pattern
    ultimately achieve integration and             vary by season or by day of the week?
    coordination across multiple business lines,   By using analytics to answer these kinds of
    products, channels and customer lifecycle      questions, you can predict an individual
    management areas. At the same time, top        customer's sensitivity to the specific attributes
    performers are pushing beyond this effort to   of an offer. You can also automatically generate
    bridge corporate views of the customer and     population segments with similar sensitivity.
    focusing on developing a more holistic         This is the key insight on which differentiation
    understanding of the customer's view. In a     can be built.
    sense, it is about “getting inside the
    customer's head” and taking a 360-degree         2. Model the Decision to
    look outward.                                       Optimize Performance
    To construct this inside-out customer view,
                                                   While companies must continue to improve
    companies are bringing together data from
                                                   scores and other predictive analytics, the
    a widening range of internal and external
                                                   largest performance gains going forward will
    sources. The sense of urgency that came
                                                   come from improving how analytics are used
    with the crisis is impelling them to tackle
                                                   in decision strategies. It is, after all, better
    the thorny integration and organizational
                                                   decisions that improve business performance,
    issues involved in sharing data across
                                                   not better predictive models in isolation.
    product lines, channels and customer
    lifecycle decision areas.                      This means there is a need to model more
                                                   than individual customers and their
    There is another aspect to this effort. No
                                                   behavior. There is a need to model the
    one doubts that more data and more
                                                   decision itself. Decision modeling is a
    relevant data lead to better models.
                                                   fundamental technique for understanding
    Winners, however, won't just use that
                                                   and improving decision strategies.
    data to build better models—they will use it
                                                   A decision model, as shown in Figure 1, can
    to ask better questions.
                                                   incorporate any number of predictive
    Take, for example, the way response            analytics along with a multitude of other
    and propensity modeling has traditionally      inputs.
    been done in marketing. Often what you
                                                   All decision makers have a view of the way a
    are actually modeling is the offer you
                                                   particular business situation operates
    just made—e.g., “how many customers in
                                                   whether they recognize it formally or not.
    this new target population will respond to
                                                   The great advantage of the decision model
    and accept this existing offer?”
                                                   concept is that it makes that view explicit
    A smarter use of analytics is to model the     and ties it to an objective, like maximizing
    offer you are about to make. That              sales or profit. It also makes clear the decision
    means asking questions about which             variables—like credit limit and interest rate,
    products individual customers are most         or channel and price—and the constraints
    likely to buy next, and when they are most     that need to be met, such as expected losses
    likely to make the purchase. If customers      not exceeding some pre-determined value.



6
Simplified view of a decision model for a credit line increase                    Figure 1




At the core of this model are predictions            initial expectations, rather than simply
about how customers will react to potential          following a long list of metrics.
actions. Generally, these are the models that
                                                 n because there is an explicit
                                                 Third,
determine the effectiveness of the decisions
                                                 objective, the decision model forms an
that get created. However, it is very common
                                                 excellent basis for the comparison and
for decision makers and analysts to create
                                                 simulation of one possible strategy
their decisions with a complete absence of
                                                 against another.
any formal understanding of these action-
reaction relationships. Not surprisingly, this   In addition to making the drivers of a
leads to lost opportunity.                       decision clear, a decision model can be
                                                 “solved” by mathematical optimization.
The decision model concept creates the best
                                                 Optimization pinpoints the single best
starting place for three crucial steps to
                                                 strategy for maximizing or minimizing a
improving decisions:
                                                 particular goal. The output of optimization is
nadapting the parameters and
First,                                           the assignment, at the level of individual
constraints of the model for some new            customers, of the best actions or treatments
circumstance forms a sound way of                for what you're trying to accomplish at the
creating new decision logic. You are             portfolio or organizational level. The resulting
addressing the change at the structural          solution can be expressed as a decision tree.
level, not editing some derived construct.
                                                 Using optimization and simulation with a
n because the decision model
Second,                                          well-developed decision model, you can
makes the underlying relationships               explore how much impact a current
explicit, it becomes much clearer what           constraint is having on your projected results
information should be tracked to                 and what would happen if you adjusted it. For
understand if a strategy is playing out as       example, you could answer the question: “If
expected. You can track results against          we allowed a slightly higher level of bad debt



                                                                                                    7
Optimizing a credit line management decision strategy                               Figure 2




    losses, could we reduce attrition and improve       only the economy, but changing customer
    profit?” As shown in Figure 2, this process         behavior and new regulations. These
    identifies a spectrum of optimized                  developments are causing even more changes
    strategies—an “efficient frontier” of potential     in consumer behavior.
    operating points. Exploring this frontier
                                                        To cope with such upheavals, top performers
    helps you better understand key performance
                                                        are continuing to analyze historical data, but
    dynamics and select the optimal operating
                                                        also probing their markets by conducting
    point that is currently best for your business.
                                                        rapid-cycle designed experiments. They're
    The drivers of an effective decision are there      analyzing the results to learn as quickly as
    whether the decision maker recognizes them          possible about changing market dynamics,
    explicitly or not. An analytically smart            and to identify which offers, policies and
    business will realize this, and be well along the   actions are working best now. They are
    path to improving business performance.             following the proven principles of
                                                        experimental design to learn more from fewer
     3. Rethink What it Means to                        tests. This mature discipline aims at creating
        be Data-driven When the                         experiments whose results can be accurately
        Future is Not Like the Past                     analyzed and causes of variations
                                                        understood. A well-designed series of
    To use analytics in smarter ways, companies         experiments eliminates the need to test every
    can no longer rely solely on historical data.       option—or even all the best options—because
    This can be seen clearly in the financial           enough has been learned already to
    services industry, where consumers have             extrapolate the outcome.
    changed their behavior in response to               In a high-performing analytic organization, a
    economic stress. Creditors have changed             certain proportion of new or “challenger”
    their offers and policies in response to not        strategies will be purposefully designed to



8
produce “controlled variation.” If you test       individual with a credit score of 620 is likely
only challenger strategies that are close to      to have a default rate much closer to that
how you currently do business, you will limit     traditionally associated with a score of 614.
what you can learn from your data. If,            In a very severe recession, the default rate is
however, you push the design of some              likely to look a lot more like that of a 600.
challengers outside of the bounds of business     This does not mean that the score is
as usual, you will introduce variation into       “broken”—it may rank-order risk just as
your data and expand what you can learn           strongly as ever, but the performance of
from it.                                          customers at each score has degraded.
In a practical situation, it is never as simple   With this kind of economic impact
as the challenger beats the champion.             simulation, lenders can select the economic
Well-designed strategies do not even set          forecast they believe is probable, then use the
out with this goal in mind. They set out to       associated index metrics to adjust their score
push the relationships that underlie the          cutoffs for credit approval. In this way, it is
decision model so that learning increases         possible to maintain a fairly consistent
understanding. Think of them not as               default rate across changing economic
challengers to replace a champion, but as         conditions.
learning strategies. This cycle, in turn, leads
to a new champion and another round of              5. Balance Automation
testing. By exploring a wider range of                 with Expertise
possibilities, you increase the chances of
discovering unique insights that might            More analytics does not mean less need for
lead to competitive differentiation. You are      human expertise. Automated discovery of
also less likely to be caught flat-footed when    patterns and automation of modeling
the forces of change shake up the status quo.     processes are important tools that can speed
                                                  the process of improving decisions. The
 4. Factor Macro-economic                         economic meltdown has shown, however,
    Forecasts into Analytics                      that letting the machines do all the thinking
                                                  can lead to catastrophe.
It is clear that abrupt economic changes, such    Analytic expertise informed by deep domain
as severe recessions, can cause actual customer   knowledge is essential to building effective
behavior to shift from what historical data       predictive and decision models. This
says it should be. In the recent downturn,        expertise is indispensable for dealing with
credit default rates rose significantly above     everything from data bias to inadequate
the rates historically associated with standard   sample sizes.
credit score ranges.
                                                  Today's analytic announcements focus on the
Today, there are new analytic methods for         need to use analytics to crunch through
forecasting how such macro-economic               petabytes of data. While this is true, it is only
conditions are likely to impact customer          part of the story. Given today's dynamic
behavior and change results. These analytics      market conditions, businesses need analytics
are now being used to generate an index of        to make decisions for which they do not have
how much default rates are likely to increase     petabytes of data—or at least not petabytes of
or decrease under a range of economic             relevant data. That is why you need to rely on
forecasts. This index enables lenders to see,     analytic experts to get the most predictive
for example, that in a moderate recession, an     value from what you have to work with.


                                                                                                      9
Expertise makes the difference between                       analytic complexity must be justified.
     models that perform so-so and those that                     A senior manager should be able to get clear
     perform at a very high level. This                           answers to: “Why does this customer decision
     performance edge comes from the expert's                     need to be so complicated? What value are
     ability to interpret nuances in the data                     we getting from it? What are we learning?
     in order to find the best predictive                         How is this going to make tomorrow's
     characteristics for a desired performance                    decisions better than today's?”
     outcome. It comes from knowing how to
                                                                  Some complexity, of course, is good. It is
     validate models without “over-fitting” them
                                                                  how a company finds new niches of
     to the data they were developed from, and
                                                                  customers and tries to improve the decisions
     how to fine-tune models to a company's
                                                                  it makes about those customers. Much
     specific real-world business conditions.
                                                                  unnecessary complexity, however, can be
     Above all, the analyst's understanding of the
                                                                  traced back to two root causes: 1) Trying to
     context in which a model will be used—and
                                                                  improve decisions by starting with the
     the decision it is supposed to improve—is
                                                                  decision tree rather than the decision model;
     absolutely critical.
                                                                  and 2) The inefficiencies of the decision tree
                                                                  as a means of representation.
       6. Justify Complexity and
          Increase Transparency                                   Editing a decision tree of any size is an
                                                                  inherently risky venture. This form of
     Businesses are operating in an increasingly                  representation is visually complicated,
     complex world, and it follows that analytics                 and therefore, working within it, one can
     must often be complex as well. Nevertheless,                 easily make mistakes. By comparison, the



         Comparison of two decision trees                                                                    Figure 3




     New strategy design tools simplify the visualization of complex strategies. This helps in the comparison of different
     strategies, such as in this example, which highlights the score cutoff change difference in two collection strategies.




10
underlying decision model can be much             nodes, and it is not unusual to have trees
simpler to understand and change. Edit the        with many thousands of nodes, hence the
decision model, and you will have a better        magnitude of the problem.
grasp of the structural reasons for the changes
you are making, and thus can have                    Conclusion
confidence in the decision tree derived from
it, no matter how complex.                        In the post-crisis era, the companies that
When it is necessary to edit or “prune back”      succeed with analytics will not be those that
the resulting decision tree a bit, you need       simply use more of them, they will be those
tools that help you navigate across it to focus   that use them in smarter ways. Above all, to
in on just the places requiring attention. You    really succeed with analytics, you need to
also need tools that help you understand how      understand the context of the data, the
much fidelity to the decision model you are       operational context of the decision and the
giving up by making these edits.                  underlying business relationships that you
                                                  are modeling. You just cannot do that by
The best tools also enable you to compare the
                                                  going click-click-click.
original decision strategy to the changed
strategy. Starting with the decision model,
you understand the structural reasons for the        References
changes. Comparing the trees then shows you
the differences in the decision logic. This just 1. Market Overview: The Business Intelligence
is not possible when comparing “raw” trees          Software Market, Forrester Research, Inc.
with anything beyond a small number of              10/23/09, p7




                                                                                                  11
Analytics in
                                                                                                   Financial
                                                                                                   Services




02
Structuring the Unstructured                       Bala Venkatesh
                                                   Group Project
                                                                          Kiran Kalmadi
                                                                          Senior Consultant,
                                                                                                 Shivani Aggarwal
                                                                                                 Consultant,
Data: The Convergence of                           Manager,
                                                   Infosys Technologies
                                                                          Infosys Technologies
                                                                          Limited
                                                                                                 Infosys Technologies
                                                                                                 Limited
Structured and Unstructured                        Limited

Analytics

Today, 80% of business is carried out on unstructured data—documents, call center logs,
blogs, wikis, tweets, and surveys. Neglecting to analyze such data leads to ignored risks,
uninformed decisions, and missed opportunities. Financial services firms are increasingly
analyzing unstructured data to understand customer needs, prevent frauds and expand the
customer base. Analytics plays a key role in analyzing unstructured data and transforming it
into actionable intelligence. The rapid adoption of social media by the financial services
industry has resulted in an even higher percentage of unstructured data being generated.
This has prompted firms to increasingly look at social analytics to derive structured insights
out of social media. As unstructured and structured data analytics are converging, financial
institutions are looking for analytic vendors to come up with products that blend
unstructured analytics (like social analytics) with structured analytics (risk analytics).
This article analyzes unstructured data, the various analytics vendors in the space, and
applications in the financial services industry.



                                                    have significant business value. However, due to
 Unstructured Data: What is it?
                                                    insufficient search techniques and inadequate
                                                    technologies, businesses are usually not able
Unstructured data refers to data that does          to derive the right answers—leading to
not exist in a database. Unstructured data can      inappropriate decision-making.
be textual or non-textual and takes the form
of text, audio and images (refer to Figure 1 for    Unstructured analytics help businesses analyze
more on the different sources of unstructured       unstructured data and transform it into
data). Unlike structured transaction data—          actionable insights. These primarily consist of
which tells what customers did—unstructured         text analytics, audio (or speech) analytics
data provides insights into why they did it,        and video (or image) analytics. Social media
what else they want to do, and what problems        analytics are an important form of text analytics
they may have. The answers to these questions       making inroads.
Types of data                                                                                Figure 1




         Structured                      Semi-Structured                          UnStructured

         ? & Legacy
         Relation                        XML
                                         ?                                        Web
                                                                                  ?
         Databases                       EDI Documents
                                         ?                                        E-Mails
                                                                                  ?
         Spreadsheets
         ?                                                                        Wikipedia
                                                                                  ?
         ? with Proper
         Flat Files                                                               Multimedia (Video,
                                                                                  ?
         Record Formats                                                               Audio)
                                                                                  RSS Feeds
                                                                                  ?
                                     Within Corporate                             Messages
                                                                                  ?



                                                        Static                    Real Time

                                                        Internal
                                                        ?                         ? Center
                                                                                  Customer
                                                        Documents                     Call Logs
                                                        Sales Report
                                                        ?                         ? Center
                                                                                  Customer
                                                        Marketing
                                                        ?                             Representative Notes
                                                        Material                  ?Rooms
                                                                                  Trading

                                                        Analysts
                                                        ?                         ? News
                                                                                  Breaking
                                                        Reports                   ?Pricing
                                                                                  Market
                                    Internet




                                                        Formal/Legal
                                                        ?                         ? Events
                                                                                  Weather
                                                        Filings (SEC,             ? Actions
                                                                                  Corporate
                                                        FDIC)                     Chat Rooms
                                                                                  ?
                                                        Journals
                                                        ?                         Social Media
                                                                                  ?
                                                                                      Platforms




                                                                 Text Analytics
      Unstructured Data Analytics
                                                                 Text analytics enable businesses to derive
     Analysis of any form of unstructured                        value from large quantities of text. This text
     data that helps transform it into                           can be available either in existing repositories
     actionable intelligence is called                           or can be newly generated or acquired. This is
     “Unstructured Data Analytics”. Structured                   done by extracting and interpreting relevant
     data analytics uses business intelligence                   information to reveal patterns and
                                                                 relationships. Figure 2 elaborates the text
     tools for querying and reporting,
                                                                 analytics process in detail.
     whereas unstructured data analytics
     utilizes text processing and keyword                        Text analytics is gaining importance in all
     searches (to locate documents in servers).                  industry segments (specifically the financial
     Unstructured analytics has evolved over                     services industry), mainly because of the huge
     time, moving towards next generation                        chunks of textual data being generated
     techniques like video and audio analytics                   month after month by every organization
     (which are rarely used in the financial                     (both within and outside the organization).
     services industry) and text analytics                       With the advent of Web 2.0 & 3.0, there is a
     (also known as text mining).                                greater emphasis on information-sharing



14
Text analytics process                                                            Figure 2




     Information       Transforming        Analytics          Reporting         Delivery
     Retrieval         Text
     Collect and
     ?                Content
                      ?                 Selecting
                                        ?                  Different
                                                           ?                 Taking steps to
                                                                             ?
       retrieve         cleaning,         attributes,        mechanisms        augment
       information      removing          discovering        for notifying     existing data &
       from both        duplicates,       patterns,          results, like     store enriched
       internal &       language          interpreting &     dashboards,       information
       external         recognition,      analyzing the      alerts, etc.
       sources          etc.              results




and user-collaboration using social               In recent months, a host of social media
networking sites. Interactions and posts on       analytic products--from vendors such as
these sites play a huge role in shaping           IBM, SAS, Scout Labs, and Radian6--have
consumer sentiments about businesses,             hit the markets. These products will help
services, competition, and markets. Hence,        banks and other financial services companies
corporations are investing in social media        monitor and measure the performance
analytics tools that use text analytics to        of their social media campaigns—enabling
understand customer sentiments, and               banks to make informed decisions.
address them proactively.
Social Media Analytics                              Key Vendors in Unstructured
                                                    Data Analytics
Social media analytics derive and measure
key results from social media. Social media       The unstructured data analytics software
analytic tools use algorithms and approaches      market is relatively new, and the vendors in
for automated analysis of blogs, chats, emails    this space are still emerging and shaping
and other related social media. Key areas         their lines-of-businesses. SPSS (acquired by
addressed by social media analytic tools are:     IBM) and SAS are the major players.
                                                  There are a number of other vendors who
n the relevant blogs - Identifying
Finding
                                                  specialize in offering text analytic—tools and
the relevant blogs and forums for a
                                                  tools for the monitoring and measurement
business
                                                  of social media.
n
Detecting sentiment - Detecting the
                                                  The Road Ahead for Vendors
sentiments expressed about a company,
product or new launch                             The future lies in bridging the gap between
                                                  structured and unstructured data and
n
Measuring the influence and authority
                                                  creating products that blend unstructured
of key bloggers - Identifying the key
                                                  analytics with structured analytics. The
bloggers and how they are influencing the
                                                  challenge for vendors is creating structured
thought process of others on the web
                                                  data from unstructured information. The
n topics of interest masked in
Detecting                                         combination of various data sources and
conversations on social network sites.            different types of data to drive business is


                                                                                                   15
definitely worth exploring for vendors.        and perspectives about a company's services
     The road ahead for vendors will be             or products through social media. Most
     characterized by:                              financial services firms still rely only on
                                                    structured data analytics for customer
     n
     Integration of social media analytics
                                                    intelligence. Unless these structured data
     with text analytics- Vendors will be
                                                    analytics are blended with social media
     looking to integrate social media
                                                    analytics, it is very difficult to achieve
     analytics with text analytics. In recent
                                                    actionable customer intelligence.
     times, social media monitoring vendors
     have started to merge with text mining         Stock Market Prediction
     analytic vendors. Social media
                                                    Predicting stock market movements is a
     monitoring as a stand-alone capability of
                                                    challenge for investors due to lack of
     vendors will, thus, not stay for long.
                                                    consistent prediction methods. However,
     n
     Text analytics will be made available          research shows that there is a strong
     as a component of other applications-          relationship between news stories and stock
     Text analytics applications will move          price movements. Predicting the stock price
     away from being siloed applications            movements based on news items is gaining
     towards being a part or a component of         increased importance in the text mining
     other applications in the business. In         community.
     such a set-up, insights derived from
                                                    Fraud Detection
     analysis of unstructured textual content
     will automatically flow on a real-time         Financial institutions lose millions of dollars
     basis into the business for key decision-      to fraud every year. In banking, fraud arises as
     making.                                        a result of stolen credit cards, forged checks,
                                                    misleading accounting practices, etc.
     n
     Convergence of various types of
     analytics- There will be a rapid growth of     Financial services firms need to have
     combinations of different types of             improved analytical capabilities to reduce
     analytics. For instance, text analytics        fraud levels and the associated costs.
     with predictive analytics is expected to       A common thread in the above three
     make rapid headway. Financial services         application scenarios is a proper blend of
     firms will begin using a combination of        structured analytics and various forms of
     text analytics and predictive analytics for    unstructured analytics. A well-blended
     risk management and fraud management           solution is much better than traditional
     on a large scale.                              analytics solutions.
                                                    A key challenge in using unstructured
      Applications of Unstructured
      Analytics in Banking, Financial               data analytics is that the unstructured
      Services and Insurance (BFSI)                 data rarely has a consistent internal
                                                    infrastructure, or metadata (unlike the
     Figure 3 highlights a few of the specific      structured data), and hence it is far more
     application areas within the BFSI segment      complex to analyze and model. Despite these
     where unstructured analytics can be readily    difficulties, businesses are incorporating,
     deployed.                                      and should continue to incorporate,
                                                    unstructured analytics efficiently into their
     Customer Relationship Management
                                                    processes, mainly because of the extensive
     Customers share ideas, insights, experiences   business value derived from such analysis.


16
Application areas of unstructured analytics                                              Figure 3




                                                Customer Relationship Management

                                                Fraud Detection

                                                Stock Market Prediction




Improving customer experience in a bank using unstructured analytics

Scenario:

noffered several services to customers through its online banking channel. Each
A bank
   typically involved multiple complex user interactions.
n using these services felt that the website was not user friendly and they started
Customers
   moving to other banks based on that sentiment. They also started sharing negative
   sentiments about the bank in online forums.
n
Many customers did not even have the patience to respond to the online customer survey
   feedback form.

 Challenges Faced by the Bank                   Solution Recommendation using
                                                Unstructured Analytics
                                      ¡
 Lack of tools for achieving a 360
 ?                                              Optimum Solution: A blend of
   view of customers, resulting in poor         structured analytics using business
   customer retention rate.                     intelligence tools and social media analytics.
 Public relations disaster due to the
 ?                                              ? utilizes social media analytic
                                                The bank
   negative sentiments expressed in               tools to analyze online consumer
   online forums.                                 forums and blogs. Along with this, the
                                                  bank analyzes the Voice of Customer
                                                  results collected from its own Business
                                                  Intelligence (BI) tool.
                                                This blended solution helps to
                                                ?
                                                  accurately predict the customer
                                                  sentiment and invest intelligently
                                                  on customer experience management.
                                                  This a shift from the traditional
                                                  approach of only analyzing the Voice of
                                                  Customer survey and Net Promoter
                                                  Score, which would not have yielded
                                                  the desired result.




                                                                                                    17
Stock market prediction using unstructured analytics

         Scenario:
         Stock market research is primarily based on two trading philosophies, namely, a) Fundamental
         ?
            - in which the prediction is based on the security's data—price to earnings ratios, return on
            equities, etc., and b) Technical - which uses charts and modeling techniques for prediction.
         ? fundamental and technical analyses, information from quarterly reports and
         Apart from
            breaking news also plays a major role in the movement of share price. Prediction has always
            been a challenge, since there has not been much success in analyzing this textual data.
            Challenges faced                                             Solution Recommendation using
                                                                         Unstructured Analytics

            ? stock market prediction
            Inaccurate                                                   Optimum Solution: A combination of
               when a breaking news story or                             Structured analytics (using technical
               quarterly results are declared, leading                   approach) and Unstructured analytics
               to huge losses for the brokers and                        (using fundamental approach).
               investors.
                                                                         In a technical approach, the historical
                                                                         ?
                                                                            data of a stock is analyzed and a linear
                                                                            regression is run to determine the price
                                                                            trend.
                                                                         In a fundamental approach, article
                                                                         ?
                                                                            terms in financial news, shareholder's
                                                                            reports etc. are assigned a weight. Using
                                                                            the Bag of Words, Noun Phrasing &
                                                                            Named Entities techniques*, the textual
                                                                            key words that relate to “earnings” or
                                                                            “loss” are identified.
                                                                         ? of both the approaches are
                                                                         The results
                                                                            combined to arrive at a predictable
                                                                            outcome (up, down, or unchanged
                                                                            movement of the stock price).
                                                                         ? 4 for understanding the
                                                                         Refer Figure
                                                                            solution steps in a typical financial
                                                                            news analytical system.



         Financial news analytical system                                                                        Figure 4




                    Fundamental Approach                                                 Technical Approach
                   (Unstructured Analytics)                                             (Structured Analytics)

                                  Textual Analytics
                 New                                                                  Regression            Stock
                                   Techniques like                  DB
                Article                                                                Analysis             Quotes
                                   Bags of Words




             Stock
                              Error Analysis                 Stock Market
            Market
                                                           Prediction Model
           Prediction

     * These are specific approaches that use linguistic textual representations.



18
Detection of fraud in insurance companies using unstructured analytics

   Scenario:
   ? the insurance industry can occur in any stage of the transaction and can be
   Frauds in
     committed by any party (i.e. new customers, policy holders, third party claimants or any
     other party involved in the transaction).
   Typical frauds include inflating actual claims, misrepresenting facts, and submitting claims
   ?
     for damages that never occurred.

     Challenges Faced by Insurance                 Solution Recommendation using
     Companies                                     Unstructured Analytics

     ?approach for fraud detection
     ·Reactive                                     Optimum Solution: A combination of
       whereby the insurance companies             structured predictive analytics, speech
       investigate only after a fraudulent         analytics and social media analytics.
       claim is made.
                                                   ? modeling combined with text
                                                   Predictive
     ·Fraud investigation process is lengthy
     ?                                               and social media analytics can be used
       and expensive, as an investigative            to detect and prevent fraud.
       officer has to investigate personally to
       detect any suspicious activity in           ? the predictive model are from
                                                   Inputs to
       claims.                                       internal & external watch lists of
                                                     criminals who previously engaged in
     Limited fraud prevention mechanisms.
     ?                                               fraud, diagnostic fraud indicators based
                                                     on surveys taken by the claim handlers,
                                                     anomaly patterns, profile details of
                                                     individuals, etc.
                                                   ? of the predictive model
                                                   The results
                                                     combined with the result of claimant's
                                                     speech analytics (to detect whether the
                                                     claimant is lying or not) along with the
                                                     results of social media analytics (to
                                                     detect the relationship among the
                                                     policy holders) can be used to generate
                                                     a risk score of the claimant.
                                                   ?score can then be used to
                                                   This risk
                                                     detect fraud customers even before
                                                     issuing the policy.




                                                   coming up with solutions to integrate
   Conclusion                                      structured analytics with unstructured
                                                   analytics. By converging unstructured analytics
There is an increasing requirement                 into the structured analytics mix, businesses
within organizations to inquire and                are seeing substantial improvements in the
                                                   accuracy and relevance of their analytic
analyze across structured and unstructured
                                                   initiatives. Incorporating analytics blends
data. Integrating unstructured data with           into business processes is a growing trend;
structured data is quite a challenge. Despite      however, they must be correctly applied to a
the challenges, many analytics vendors are         specific business scenario, and companies


                                                                                                     19
must act on the results appropriately.
     The convergence of unstructured analytics
     with structured analytics is no longer an “if”,
     but rather a “when”.




20
Analytics in
                                                                                                  Financial
                                                                                                  Services




03
Fusing Economic Forecasts                                               Dr. Andrew Jennings
                                                                        Chief Research Officer
                                                                                                 Carolyn Wang
                                                                                                 Senior Manager,
                                                                        and Head of FICO Labs,   Analytics,
with Credit Risk Analysis                                               FICO                     FICO




As many in the financial services industry prepare for measured economic recovery, it's
critical to take stock of a key lesson of the financial crisis: that risk, by its nature, is dynamic.
Today's economic realities call for a paradigm shift in risk management—one that includes
new analytics that go beyond the traditional assumption that past risk levels are indicative of
future risk. This article discusses new methods for systematically incorporating economic
data into scoring systems, allowing lenders to balance consumer level information with
changing economic trends. It also shares results from lender applications of this methodology
to “get ahead of the curve” by more closely aligning risk strategies with future performance.



                                                       In 2005 and 2006, for instance, a default rate of
   Why a New Approach is
   Needed                                              2% was associated with a score of approximately
                                                       650–660. By 2007, this default rate was associated
Traditional assumptions that recent default rates      with a score of about 710—a 50 to 60 point shift.
will be representative of future defaults works        This risk shift was most likely due to economic
reasonably well if the lending environment             decline after a period of more lenient lending
remains relatively stable. But in situations where     practices, such as adjustable rate mortgages
external factors are changing rapidly, it can be       and no-documentation (“no-doc”) loans.
dangerous to assume the risk levels associated         Lenders in 2007 who made decisions assuming
with scores will remain stable over time.              that 670 still represented 2% default saw increases
Take the recent credit crisis as a case in point.      in their default levels, when the actual default
Figure 1 (next page) shows the observed default        was about 4.5%.
                 ®
rate at each FICO Score range for real estate loans.   Many lenders do attempt to anticipate changes
Each line represents a large random sample of          in economic conditions and adjust strategies
existing accounts evaluated over different time        accordingly—for example, tightening origination
periods and the default rates one year later.          policies and reducing credit lines in a recession,
As the graph shows, the risk levels associated         or loosening policies in an upturn. But lenders
with accounts in 2005 (blue curve) versus 2006         often make these changes judgmentally, and as a
(red curve) were already diverging. One year later,    result, there is a tendency to over-correct and miss
there were much greater risk levels associated         key revenue opportunities, or under-correct and
with all but the very highest scores (green curve      retain more portfolio risk than desired.
shifts more dramatically upward).
Risk levels can shift dramatically over time                                   Figure 1




        Next Evolution of                              influence the risk profile of newly booked
        Predictive Analytics                           and existing accounts.
                                                   n
                                                   Competition. As consumers are
     To restore profitability in a post-crisis
                                                   presented with more (or less) attractive
     economy, lenders need an objective and
                                                   offers by the competition, attrition will
     empirical approach to measure changing
                                                   change the population.
     conditions and translate these into more
     effective strategies. The next generation     More specifically, lenders need analytics
     of predictive analytics must go beyond        that predict the impact of the above factors
     the assumption that only past risk levels     on future risk levels for each account. In other
     are representative of future risk. Instead,   words, the analytics must consider the
     risk estimates should also account for the    macro-economic view of market conditions
     impact of:                                    within the micro-analysis of individual
                                                   consumer risk. The analytics must be
     n
     The economy. Consumers' ability to            flexible enough to take into account what
     repay changes as the economy shifts.          is known—the historical data available
     Some lower-risk consumers may                 to derive past patterns and current economic
     refinance in downturns, leaving behind        conditions—as well as what is expected—
     a portfolio of riskier consumers.             forecasted views of the future.
     Others may reach their breaking points
     through job loss or increased payment         Given the ready availability of economic data,
                                                   lenders can first take into account the impact
     requirements. Higher-risk consumers
                                                   of economic factors on future risk estimates.
     get stretched further, resulting in more
                                                   In addition, lenders should begin to track
     frequent and severe delinquencies and
                                                   changes in their strategies and competitive
     defaults.
                                                   factors, which can be incorporated into
     n strategies. Changes in lender
     Lender                                        future risk estimates as the data becomes
     policies across the account lifecycle can     robust enough.



22
Analytics Tuned to Future                        are expected to behave differently under
   Performance                                      varying economic conditions.
                                                    This methodology builds upon existing
Next-generation analytics can provide
                                                    risk tools used by lenders, enabling quick
lenders with an understanding of how
                                                    and seamless implementation. It can be
the future risk level associated with scores
                                                    applied to a variety of scores, such as
will change, based on current and projected
                                                    origination scores, behavior scores, broad-
economic conditions. Based on past
                                                    based bureau scores like the FICO® Score,
dynamics, the analytics derive the
                                                    and Basel II risk metrics.
empirical relationship between the default
rates observed at different score ranges            When applied to these scores, lenders gain
(e.g., the risk score's odds-to-score               an additional dimension to their risk
relationship) as seen on the lender's               predictions so they can better:
portfolio, and historical changes in
                                                    n
                                                    Limit losses. Lenders would have greater
economic conditions. Using this derived
                                                    insight on how to tighten up credit
relationship, lenders can then input current
                                                    policies sooner and for the right
and anticipated economic conditions to
                                                    populations during a downturn.
project the expected odds-to-score outcome
under those conditions. They can examine            n
                                                    Grow portfolios competitively. Lenders
economic indicators such as unemployment            could more quickly determine when and
rate, interest rate and Gross Domestic              how to proactively loosen up credit
Product (GDP).                                      policies as markets recover.
With such a relationship, it is possible to         n for the future. Lenders could
                                                    Prepare
relate the impact of economic factors on            simulate the impact of future macro-
odds, default rates and scores. This relationship   economic conditions on scores,
can be derived at an overall portfolio level or     to better adjust longer-term strategies
more finely for key customer segments that          and stress-test portfolios.


   More accurately predict default rates with analytics                             Figure 2
   tuned to economic impact




                                                                                                  23
n
     Meet regulatory compliance. Lenders            Over a three-year time span, predictions
                                                                     ®
     could better set capital reserves by           from the FICO Economic Impact Service
                                                                           2
     creating more accurate, forward-looking,       reduced the error rate by 73%, compared to
     long-run/downturn estimates required           the traditional prediction.
     by Basel II.
     In practice, economically adjusted              Grow Portfolios Responsibly
     analytics generate a more accurate
     risk prediction that's better tuned to         Within originations, the lender primarily
     economic conditions. For instance, FICO        determines whether or not to accept the loan
     recently applied this methodology—called       as well as the initial loan price/amount. Using
                ®
     the FICO Economic Impact Service—to            economically adjusted analytics, a lender can
     a behavior score used by a leading US          set a cutoff score based on the anticipated
     credit card issuer. Figure 2 (previous page)   future default rate, as opposed to the historical
     compares three metrics:                        default rate. The lender can maintain the
                                                    desired portfolio risk levels by adjusting cutoff
     n
     The actual bad rate observed on the
                                                    scores as the economy changes.
     portfolio over time (blue line).
                                                    Figure 3 shows how a lender can view the
     n rates predicted by the behavior
     The bad
                                                    current default rate by score range (orange
     score aligned to historical odds
                                                    line) and predict how the default curve would
     performance (orange line)—traditional
             1                                      shift under different economic conditions.
     approach .
                                                    During a recession, the curve may shift to the
     n rates predicted by the behavior
     The bad                                        dark blue line. The lender can update its
     score aligned to anticipated odds              cutoff score from the “Current Cutoff” to the
     performance (green line)—FICO ®                “Cutoff–Recession” based on empirical
     Economic Impact Service approach. The          guidance. This allows the lender to limit
     economic conditions used were limited          losses by proactively tightening credit in
     to what was known at the time of scoring.      anticipation of the downturn.



       Flexibly adjust score cutoffs under different economic conditions                 Figure 3




24
Conversely, during a time of economic            traditional behavior score across the full
growth, the curve may shift to the light         range of account management actions.
blue line. The lender can update its cutoff
                                                 As an example, for a US credit card issuer,
score to the “Cutoff–Growth.” This allows
                                                 FICO retroactively used a FICO® Economic
the lender to loosen credit policies in
                                                 Impact behavior score in place of the
anticipation of an economic upturn, and
                                                 traditional FICO ® TRIAD ® Customer
bring in more profitable customers ahead
                                                 Manager pooled behavior score for a credit line
of competitors.
                                                 decrease strategy and for collection actions. The
FICO recently partnered with a European          key question was: in April 2008 (a period of
                                 ®                                                               ®
lender to apply the FICO Economic                relative economic calm), could FICO
Impact Service to its personal loan portfolio.   Economic Impact Service help the lender
Faced with sky-rocketing delinquencies           anticipate the economic turmoil six months
that were 2-3 times historical levels, the       later and minimize its financial impact?
lender sought to beat the market by
                                                 FICO analyzed performance in October 2008
proactively adjusting origination strategies
                                                 and compared the different decisions made
ahead of its competition. Using the
                                                 by the two scores. Figure 4 shows the line
results from the economically adjusted
                                                 decrease results.
analytics, the lender saw opportunity to
improve its profit per applicant by US $11.50.   The columns of interest are the “Swap In”
                                                 and “Swap Out”, since they illustrate where
A similar approach can be taken for initial
                                                 different decisions would be made. The
loan amount and pricing strategies.
                                                 second column identifies accounts that
                                                 would have received decreases using the
   Improve Account
   Management Decisions                          Economic Impact score, but did not
                                                 receive decreases by the traditional behavior
Lenders use behavior scores to help              score (the accounts would be “swapped in”
manage accounts already on their books           if the lender had used the Economic
for credit line management, authorizations,      Impact score). The third column identifies
loan re-pricing and cross-sell decisions.        accounts that the Economic Impact score
An “economically impacted” behavior score        would not have decreased and the traditional
could be used in place of or along with the      behavior score did decrease.



  Economic Impact score better identifies higher-risk                                 Figure 4
  accounts for line decreases




                                                                                                     25
The highlighted cells show that the behavior        also would have not decreased accounts less
     score for these two populations are almost the      sensitive to the downturn, reflected by
     same (swap-in: 643 vs. swap-out: 646). In other     slightly higher scores.
     words, the behavior score identified both
                                                         The actual bad rates seen six months later
     populations as at relatively the same risk level.
                                                         reinforces that the Economic Impact score
                          ®
     However, the FICO Economic Impact score             identified riskier accounts (swap-in: 10.5% vs.
     was better able to distinguish risk among           swap-out: 7.9%). If the lender had decreased
     these populations. Using this score, the            credit lines on the appropriate accounts, it
     lender would have decreased more accounts           could have realized a yearly loss savings of
     that would be negatively affected by the            roughly US $2.4 million and a net savings of
     downturn (average score of 625). The lender         US $1.7 million, shown in Figures 5–6.



                                             ®
       Yearly loss savings using FICO Economic Impact Service                               Figure 5




                                            ®
       Yearly net savings using FICO Economic Impact Service                                Figure 6




26
Figure 7 illustrates how the lender could
   Limit Collection Losses
                                                 have saved close to US $4 million by
                                                 taking aggressive action earlier. FICO
In times of economic turmoil, it's even more     calculated this using the number of actual
critical for lenders to proactively manage       bad accounts that would have received
collection efforts. Economically adjusted        accelerated treatment, average account
scores can be applied on existing behavior or    balance and industry roll rates.
collection scores to help lenders identify
which accounts will become riskier and           Combining this roughly US $4 million in
should receive increased collection priority.    collection savings with the US $1.7 million
                                                 savings from the credit line decrease strategy,
For the same US card issuer, FICO                the lender would have saved US $5.6 million.
retroactively used an economically impacted      This illustrates the aggregate benefits of the
behavior score in place of the traditional       service when used across two areas in a
behavior score to treat early-stage (cycle 1)    customer lifecycle. Clearly, the benefits
delinquent accounts. Prioritizing accounts by    would be scalable for larger portfolios.
                                  ®
risk, the strategy using the FICO Economic
Impact behavior score would have targeted         Set more Accurate Provisions
41% of the population for more aggressive         and Capital Reserves
treatment in April 2008. FICO then
examined the resulting bad rates six months      When setting provisions and capital reserves,
later (October 2008), and saw that these         it is important to understand the risk in the
accounts resulted in higher default rates.       portfolio under stressed economic
                                                 conditions. Having forward-looking risk
In other words, the Economic Impact score
                                                 predictions is explicitly mandated by Basel II
better identified accounts that should receive
                                                 regulations, and should be part of any
more aggressive treatment in anticipation of
                                                 lender's best practice risk management.
the downturn six months later. Using this
strategy, the lender would have been ahead of    FICO worked with an Eastern European
its competition in collecting on the same        lender to apply FICO® Economic Impact
limited dollars.                                 Service to its Basel II Probability of Default


                                        ®
  Yearly loss reduction using FICO Economic Impact Service                          Figure 7




                                                                                                   27
(PD) models. Using the derived odds-to-score     aligned to current and future expected
     relationship between its PD score and            economic conditions, lenders can more
     economic conditions, the lender can              quickly adjust to a dynamic market and steer
     simulate the expected PD at a risk grade         their portfolios for the uncertainties ahead.
     level under various economic scenarios.
     Thus, the lender can more accurately                References
     calculate forward-looking, long-run PD
     estimates to better meet regulatory
                                                      1. Some scores are periodically “aligned” to
     requirements and calculate capital reserves.
                                                         maintain a consistent odds-to-score
                                                         relationship over time—for example, to
       Redefine Risk Management                          ensure a behavior score of 675 equals a
       Best Practices
                                                         target odds of 30 to 1. Traditionally,
                                                         behavior scores have been aligned to the
     There's no better time for lenders to re-
                                                         odds observed in the last six months.
     evaluate risk management practices in order
     to better prepare for measured growth or         2. Error rate is defined as the absolute
     buffer against a lingering recession. Forward-      difference between the actual bad rate and
     looking analytic tools will become the risk         predicted bad rate as a percentage of
     management best practices of tomorrow.              actual bad rate.
     With improved risk predictions better




28
Analytics in
                                                                                                         Financial
                                                                                                         Services




04
Unstructured Data                                      Dilip Nair
                                                       Project Manager,
                                                                              Srinivasan V Ramanujam
                                                                              Engagement Manager,
                                                                                                       Allen Selvaraj
                                                                                                       Senior Technical Architect,
                                                       Banking and Capital    Banking and Capital      Systems Integration
Analytics for Enterprise                               Markets Practice,      Markets Practice,        Practice,
                                                       Infosys Technologies   Infosys Technologies     Infosys Technologies
Resilience                                             Limited                Limited                  Limited




The recent financial crisis has shown us how various industries and entities are linked to each
other through a complex web of relationships. This crisis also exposed the ability (or lack
thereof) of companies, industries and even countries to plan and respond to the changes
around them. This article talks about how an analytics platform can help organizations to
monitor and manage changes proactively—thereby infusing a dose of resilience against rapid,
unexpected changes.



                                                        Two large financial organizations, Bank-A and its
   Introduction
                                                        primary competitor, Bank-B, relied on the same
                                                        offshore Vendor-X. When Vendor-X had financial
Enterprise Resilience is an effort across the
                                                        troubles, resulting in huge attrition and filing of
organization to anticipate and successfully
                                                        bankruptcy, these two banks were at risk of
navigate adversity. Literally, resilience refers to
                                                        experiencing potential disruption of ongoing
the power or ability to regain the original shape,
                                                        projects.
form or position after being bent, compressed or
stretched (subjected to adverse conditions). The        Bank-A identified and responded to this incident
term 'Enterprise Resilience' has been subject to        in real-time; they worked with other vendors to
various interpretations in the industry as it varies    ensure that their projects were de-risked before
from government agencies, to non-government             the actual bankruptcy of Vendor-X occurred.
organizations, to financial organizations, to IT        Bank-B, on the other hand, was slow to identify
vendors. Enterprise Resilience is not disaster          and respond to the incident. Their projects
recovery or business continuity, but is the new         continued to depend on Vendor-X, with
DNA for risk management that alters the                 insufficient back-up, because Bank-A had the
organization's approach from proactive to               first mover's advantage to scoop up available
adaptive, assuming that the bridge from reactive        resources. What followed is predictable. Bank-A's
to proactive has been crossed.                          projects were delivered on time and under
                                                        budget, and they were able to gain market share,
Consider the following hypothetical example. It
                                                        whereas Bank-B lost market share.
is based on a real life scenario involving two
organizations encountering the same incident,           While this is a hypothetical scenario, the reality
but responding very differently.                        of market share gained and lost defines the new
world of business. In this flat world, the     reported their 20 t h billion tweet).
     definition of risk, dependencies, and          Another study puts the value of social
     risk management have all changed.              networking sites beyond the Gross Domestic
     Traditionally, risk management delivered       Product (GDP) of some countries (Facebook
     one-dimensional solutions—focused on           – 11.5 billion, Twitter – 1.4 billion and
     mitigating risks by addressing vulnerable      growing). This valuation is undoubtedly tied
     areas. This approach has failed to include     to the enormous amounts of unstructured
     and address the various interdependencies      data that users create on their profile pages,
     that characterize the flat world we operate    walls or tweets.
     in today. By understanding the broader         The best way to be prepared for any threat
     risk, and managing risk across the             is for an organization's operation to mine
     extended enterprise, Bank-A demonstrated       this huge amount of data and extract
     greater Enterprise Resilience.                 meaningful scenarios. In this article, the
     With globalization, enhanced regulatory        focus is on how to mine unstructured
     scrutiny, a competitive marketplace,           data channels with a specific objective
                                                    in mind—build better resilience for an
     organizational interdependencies (at a
                                                    organization. For simplicity, two data
     level never seen before), and evolving
                                                    channels will be featured in this article
     technological challenges emerging, the types
                                                    (highlighted section in Figure 1). The
     of risks being faced by the organization
                                                    concept can be replicated for most other
     are new, unique and challenging. Being
                                                    information sources:
     proactive and adaptive requires that
     organizations be aware of the ever-changing    n (non-formal): With a strong user-
                                                    · Twitter
     business and geo-political environment.          base, any breaking news is immediately
     Doing so requires that organizations harness     propagated through 'tweets'. (Tweets are
     every bit of data that is available—federal      text-based posts of up to 140 characters
     and regulatory updates, geo-political news,      displayed on the author's profile that are
     weather updates, emergency service updates,      visible either publicly by default or by
     business and financial updates, and social       restricted followers.)
     networking sites. There are several services   nnews websites (formal): Websites—
                                                    · Media
     that offer the above in a packaged format.       such as NewzCrawler, FeedDemon,
     However, one of the most undertutilized          Google Reader, Omea Reader, Bloglines,
     data sources is the unstructured data            NewsGator and scoopitonline—act as
     emerging from social networking sites.           collectors of breaking news from various
     According to data scientists, nearly             formal news channels and RSS feeds.
     80% of today's data is unstructured.
     New information channels—like the                Mining/ Modeling –
                                                      Identification and
     internet (Facebook, Twitter), email, instant
                                                      Classification
     messaging (chat), text messaging (SMS),
     and voice-over-IP (phone calls)—are            The data channels described in Figure 1 are
     generating enormous stores of non-             unstructured. The next step in the process
     traditional data at a mind-boggling            is to mine/ model this data to derive potential
     pace. According to recent estimates, Twitter   scenarios (highlighted section in Figure 2).
     users create approximately 7 Terabytes of      There are many unstructured data analytics
     data in a day (on 30th July 2010, Twitter      packages available in the market (for example,



30
Step 1: Twitter and media websites as data channels                                                               Figure 1



                                                                                           Rich
                                                                                       Profile Data
                                                                                        (Location
                                                                                        Attributes
                                                                                         and Past
                                                                                          Events)
       Twitter
                   RS
                     S
                     Fe
                        ed



                                                                                                                     Improved
                           s



                                                          Data    Google Mash-ups       Analytics                    Response
                                Landing      Text         Store   for Geo-locational                  Reports &
                                 Zone      Analytics                                     Engine                    Times & Cost
                                                         (ODS)         Tagging                        Dashboards      Savings
                                          Identification
                             s
                         eed




                                          & Classification
                       SF




         Media
                     RS




        Websites




HIMI from Infosys, AeroText from Rock                                           perform sentiment analyses to enable
software, Attensity360 from Attensity,                                          behavioral and predictive capabilities.
Lexalytics, Enterprise Miner data-mining
                                                                         n
                                                                         · Categorization of data and classifying
workbench from SAS). These packages
                                                                           it into appropriate buckets, like
provide a very good GUI-based approach
                                                                           environmental disasters, man-made
for viewing data to build, test and publish
                                                                           incidents/ threats, stock market changes,
models using:
                                                                           geo-political activities like administration
n for words, word patterns or
· Searches                                                                 changes, policy changes, civil unrest, strikes
  strings to identify emerging events and to                               and boycotts, and other forms of
  gain insights into potential threats. The                                disruption to business.
  input to this would be a library of words,
                                                                         n fine-tuned by client, industry
                                                                         · Patterns
  word patterns or strings that are pre-
                                                                           segment and geography. The objective is
  selected and fed to the tool.
                                                                           to vary these patterns so they can capture
n
· Distinguish message patterns (tweets) for                                small, medium or large incidents while
  emotions and stress. This can be used to                                 avoiding false positives.



   Step 2: Identification and classification of incoming data                                                        Figure 2



                                                                                           Rich
                                                                                       Profile Data
                                                                                        (Location
                                                                                        Attributes
                                                                                         and Past
                                                                                          Events)
       Twitter
                   RS
                     S
                     Fe
                       ed




                                                                                                                     Improved
                          s




                                                          Data    Google Mash-ups                                    Response
                                Landing      Text         Store   for Geo-locational    Analytics     Reports &
                                 Zone      Analytics                                     Engine                    Times & Cost
                                                         (ODS)         Tagging                        Dashboards      Savings
                                          Identification
                            s
                            d
                         Fee




         Media                            & Classification
                        S
                     RS




        Websites




                                                                                                                                  31
FINsights: Analytics in Collaboration with FICO
FINsights: Analytics in Collaboration with FICO
FINsights: Analytics in Collaboration with FICO
FINsights: Analytics in Collaboration with FICO
FINsights: Analytics in Collaboration with FICO
FINsights: Analytics in Collaboration with FICO
FINsights: Analytics in Collaboration with FICO
FINsights: Analytics in Collaboration with FICO
FINsights: Analytics in Collaboration with FICO
FINsights: Analytics in Collaboration with FICO
FINsights: Analytics in Collaboration with FICO
FINsights: Analytics in Collaboration with FICO
FINsights: Analytics in Collaboration with FICO
FINsights: Analytics in Collaboration with FICO
FINsights: Analytics in Collaboration with FICO
FINsights: Analytics in Collaboration with FICO
FINsights: Analytics in Collaboration with FICO
FINsights: Analytics in Collaboration with FICO
FINsights: Analytics in Collaboration with FICO
FINsights: Analytics in Collaboration with FICO
FINsights: Analytics in Collaboration with FICO
FINsights: Analytics in Collaboration with FICO
FINsights: Analytics in Collaboration with FICO
FINsights: Analytics in Collaboration with FICO
FINsights: Analytics in Collaboration with FICO
FINsights: Analytics in Collaboration with FICO
FINsights: Analytics in Collaboration with FICO
FINsights: Analytics in Collaboration with FICO
FINsights: Analytics in Collaboration with FICO
FINsights: Analytics in Collaboration with FICO
FINsights: Analytics in Collaboration with FICO
FINsights: Analytics in Collaboration with FICO
FINsights: Analytics in Collaboration with FICO
FINsights: Analytics in Collaboration with FICO
FINsights: Analytics in Collaboration with FICO
FINsights: Analytics in Collaboration with FICO
FINsights: Analytics in Collaboration with FICO
FINsights: Analytics in Collaboration with FICO
FINsights: Analytics in Collaboration with FICO
FINsights: Analytics in Collaboration with FICO
FINsights: Analytics in Collaboration with FICO
FINsights: Analytics in Collaboration with FICO
FINsights: Analytics in Collaboration with FICO
FINsights: Analytics in Collaboration with FICO
FINsights: Analytics in Collaboration with FICO
FINsights: Analytics in Collaboration with FICO
FINsights: Analytics in Collaboration with FICO
FINsights: Analytics in Collaboration with FICO
FINsights: Analytics in Collaboration with FICO
FINsights: Analytics in Collaboration with FICO
FINsights: Analytics in Collaboration with FICO
FINsights: Analytics in Collaboration with FICO
FINsights: Analytics in Collaboration with FICO
FINsights: Analytics in Collaboration with FICO
FINsights: Analytics in Collaboration with FICO
FINsights: Analytics in Collaboration with FICO
FINsights: Analytics in Collaboration with FICO
FINsights: Analytics in Collaboration with FICO
FINsights: Analytics in Collaboration with FICO
FINsights: Analytics in Collaboration with FICO
FINsights: Analytics in Collaboration with FICO
FINsights: Analytics in Collaboration with FICO
FINsights: Analytics in Collaboration with FICO
FINsights: Analytics in Collaboration with FICO
FINsights: Analytics in Collaboration with FICO
FINsights: Analytics in Collaboration with FICO
FINsights: Analytics in Collaboration with FICO
FINsights: Analytics in Collaboration with FICO
FINsights: Analytics in Collaboration with FICO
FINsights: Analytics in Collaboration with FICO
FINsights: Analytics in Collaboration with FICO
FINsights: Analytics in Collaboration with FICO
FINsights: Analytics in Collaboration with FICO
FINsights: Analytics in Collaboration with FICO
FINsights: Analytics in Collaboration with FICO
FINsights: Analytics in Collaboration with FICO
FINsights: Analytics in Collaboration with FICO
FINsights: Analytics in Collaboration with FICO
FINsights: Analytics in Collaboration with FICO
FINsights: Analytics in Collaboration with FICO
FINsights: Analytics in Collaboration with FICO
FINsights: Analytics in Collaboration with FICO
FINsights: Analytics in Collaboration with FICO
FINsights: Analytics in Collaboration with FICO
FINsights: Analytics in Collaboration with FICO
FINsights: Analytics in Collaboration with FICO
FINsights: Analytics in Collaboration with FICO
FINsights: Analytics in Collaboration with FICO
FINsights: Analytics in Collaboration with FICO
FINsights: Analytics in Collaboration with FICO
FINsights: Analytics in Collaboration with FICO
FINsights: Analytics in Collaboration with FICO
FINsights: Analytics in Collaboration with FICO
FINsights: Analytics in Collaboration with FICO
FINsights: Analytics in Collaboration with FICO
FINsights: Analytics in Collaboration with FICO
FINsights: Analytics in Collaboration with FICO
FINsights: Analytics in Collaboration with FICO
FINsights: Analytics in Collaboration with FICO
FINsights: Analytics in Collaboration with FICO
FINsights: Analytics in Collaboration with FICO
FINsights: Analytics in Collaboration with FICO
FINsights: Analytics in Collaboration with FICO
FINsights: Analytics in Collaboration with FICO
FINsights: Analytics in Collaboration with FICO
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FINsights: Analytics in Collaboration with FICO

  • 1. Tap into the true value of analytics Organize, analyze, and apply data to compete decisively
  • 2. Preface Welcome to the Analytics in Financial Services issue of FINsights! Analytics. As the Information Age advances, business and social discussions about analytics abound. Particularly among executives who are focused on profitable growth and risk management, the effective use of analytics is increasingly viewed as critical to success. In response to growing demand from our clients for information and services related to analytics, we've dedicated this issue of FINsights, Infosys' thought leadership journal for the financial services industry, to the topic of analytics. Indeed, this quarter we decided to do something special: we've merged the expertise of Infosys and FICO to create a one-stop compendium of viewpoints, roadmaps and research pieces addressing a topic which carries increasing importance in our data-drenched world. The last decade has been characterized by an explosion in the volume and complexity of information. Organizations have developed enormous data warehouses cataloguing everything from transaction details to online activity, to dates of birth. For financial institutions, this abundance of information represents both a powerful opportunity and a daunting challenge. When effectively organized, analyzed, and acted upon, it can drive customer retention, reduce credit risk, and improve cross- and up-selling. However, arriving at the point of proper application requires significant knowledge of and investment in analytics—not only the science, but also the practice of applying it when facing tightened regulatory, fiscal and other real-world challenges. Though the potential of analytics is nearly unlimited, many organizations get caught up in the “whens”, “wheres”, “whats” and “hows”. This issue has been created as an enabler—a tool for our readers to tap into the true value of analytics and fully realize the potential of the information available to them. In it, we address a variety of analytics trends and challenges which have emerged in recent years. From mastering the intricacies of unstructured analytics, transaction analytics and adaptive analytics, to the governance and management of information, this issue fuses the know-how of Infosys and FICO to help inform your analytics strategy. We hope you find the result of our partnership enlightening. Each article in this issue was forged from a unique combination of domain expertise, discussions with clients and analysts, exhaustive research, and inter-company reviews. Our contributors put a tremendous amount of time and thought into each article, with the goal of producing an issue of lasting value – one that you keep close at hand in the months ahead. From ideation to publication, this issue has been exciting to develop, read, and discuss. We hope you'll agree and look forward to hearing your thoughts, comments and suggestions. Ashok Vemuri Member, Executive Council and Global Head, Banking & Capital Markets Practice Infosys Technologies Limited Charles ill Executive Vice President, Sales and Marketing FICO
  • 3. Content Preface From the Editors’ Desk Analytics for a New Decade 01. Post-Crisis Analytics: Six Imperatives 05 02. Structuring the Unstructured Data: The Convergence of 13 Structured and Unstructured Analytics Revitalize Risk Management 03. Fusing Economic Forecasts with Credit Risk Analysis 21 04. Unstructured Data Analytics for Enterprise Resilience 29 05. Why Real-Time Risk Decisions Require Transaction Analytics 37 Optimize to Drive Profits 06. Ten Questions to Ask of Your Optimization Solution 47 07. Practical Challenges of Portfolio Optimization 55 Understand Your Customer 08. Analytics in Cross Selling – A Retail Banking Perspective 61 09. Analytics as a Solution for Attrition 69 10. Customer Spend Analysis: Unlocking the True Value of a Transaction 77 0 11. A Dynamic 360 Dashboard: A Solution for Comprehensive 85 Customer Understanding Fight Fraud More Effectively 12. Developing a Smarter Solution for Card Fraud Protection 93 13. Using Adaptive Analytics to Combat New Fraud Schemes 103 14. To Fight Fraud, Connecting Decisions is a Must 109 Improve Model Performance 15. Productizing Analytic Innovation: The Quest for Quality, 117 Standardization and Technology Governance Leverage Analytics Across Lines of Business 16. Analytics in Retail Banking: Why and How? 125 17. Business Analytics in the Wealth Management Space 135
  • 4. From the Editor’s Desk In 1992, Walmart launched the first terabyte database—the race for information was on. In the nearly 20 years since, large financial institutions and retailers alike have piled up data at a seemingly exponential rate. 100 terabyte databases are no longer the exception, they are the norm. Businesses across industries have been remarkably effective at amassing information. Where they have struggled, however, is effectively and consistently utilizing this information to drive revenues and cut costs. To make this data actionable, having a strong analytics program is a competitive necessity. From fraud to risk to marketing to collections, financial institutions have been accelerating their use of analytics, moving from rearview analysis of historical data to forward-looking predictive analytics—models that are predictive and drive optimal decisions. A recent Forrester survey found that 31% of IT decision- makers are implementing or planning to implement advanced analytics packages in the near future. If your bank isn't investing, your competitors are. The information race of the last 20 years has paved the way for an analytics race over the next decade. Firms want to know with more certainty how their customers are going to behave—who is likely to attrite, where they will spend next, and who is most likely to default on a mortgage or credit card—and what actions will guide customer behavior in a mutually beneficial direction. How effectively strategies are developed and implemented to extract and leverage information will likely define the winners and losers of the financial services industry in the 21st century. In this day and age, information is indeed power. This issue of FINsights has been created to help your organization tap into the true value of analytics. We start by looking forward, delving into the musts of a post-crisis business environment, the potential of unstructured analytics, and the advances in credit risk analysis. From there, we provide a series of roadmaps and recommendations for applying analytics to three of the major challenges banks face today: fraud, improving understanding of the customer, and risk management. The issue wraps up with a series of articles addressing analytics optimization, model performance, and vertical- specific analytics. We hope this issue serves as not only an interesting read, but also as a tool in launching and transforming your analytics initiatives. Chisoo Lyons Vice President, Analytic Science, FICO Srinivas Prabhala Delivery Manager, Head BCM STAR Technology Group, Infosys Technologies Limited
  • 5. FINsights Editorial Board ASHOK VEMURI Member Executive Council, MOHIT JOSHI Senior Vice President and Global Head of Sales Head - Banking and Capital Markets Practice Banking and Capital Markets Practice Infosys Technologies Limited Infosys Technologies Limited RAJESH MENON LARS SKARI Partner Partner and Practice Manager Infosys Consulting Infosys Consulting BALAGOVIND KESAVAN CHISOO LYONS Head of Marketing Vice President Banking and Capital Markets Practice Analytic Science Infosys Technologies Limited FICO SRINIVAS PRABHALA Delivery Manager Head BCM STAR Technology Group Infosys Technologies Limited
  • 6. Analytics in Financial Services 01 Post-Crisis Analytics: Dr. Andrew Jennings Chief Research Officer and Head of FICO Labs, Six Imperatives FICO While today's business press is filled with the message that analytics can help companies “do business smarter”, the largest gains will come from using analytics smarter. FICO has identified six imperatives for analytics in an environment where the past may no longer be a good model for the future. At the core of these imperatives is the decision model—a working model that explains the relationships between all the drivers of a decision and its results. The decision model can be used in business planning and is a critical element in strategy optimization. Using such tools is essential to understanding the business situation and creating lasting business advantage. More analytics does not mean more of the same, Introduction however. Lessons learned from the crisis must now shape the way organizations build and One response to the severity of the recent use analytics. Grave dangers lie in the naïve economic crisis is an increasing demand application of pre-packaged analytic techniques. for analytics. Forrester Research predicts that the market for predictive analytics and data With that in mind, this article describes six mining will grow at a rapid pace to US $1.8 ways analytics needs to change to drive business billion by 2014. performance to higher levels.
  • 7. buy a particular product, which related 1. Turn the “360-degree Customer view” Inside Out products are they most likely to buy within a specific range of time? Which channels does The new normal requires that companies will this customer use most, and does that pattern ultimately achieve integration and vary by season or by day of the week? coordination across multiple business lines, By using analytics to answer these kinds of products, channels and customer lifecycle questions, you can predict an individual management areas. At the same time, top customer's sensitivity to the specific attributes performers are pushing beyond this effort to of an offer. You can also automatically generate bridge corporate views of the customer and population segments with similar sensitivity. focusing on developing a more holistic This is the key insight on which differentiation understanding of the customer's view. In a can be built. sense, it is about “getting inside the customer's head” and taking a 360-degree 2. Model the Decision to look outward. Optimize Performance To construct this inside-out customer view, While companies must continue to improve companies are bringing together data from scores and other predictive analytics, the a widening range of internal and external largest performance gains going forward will sources. The sense of urgency that came come from improving how analytics are used with the crisis is impelling them to tackle in decision strategies. It is, after all, better the thorny integration and organizational decisions that improve business performance, issues involved in sharing data across not better predictive models in isolation. product lines, channels and customer lifecycle decision areas. This means there is a need to model more than individual customers and their There is another aspect to this effort. No behavior. There is a need to model the one doubts that more data and more decision itself. Decision modeling is a relevant data lead to better models. fundamental technique for understanding Winners, however, won't just use that and improving decision strategies. data to build better models—they will use it A decision model, as shown in Figure 1, can to ask better questions. incorporate any number of predictive Take, for example, the way response analytics along with a multitude of other and propensity modeling has traditionally inputs. been done in marketing. Often what you All decision makers have a view of the way a are actually modeling is the offer you particular business situation operates just made—e.g., “how many customers in whether they recognize it formally or not. this new target population will respond to The great advantage of the decision model and accept this existing offer?” concept is that it makes that view explicit A smarter use of analytics is to model the and ties it to an objective, like maximizing offer you are about to make. That sales or profit. It also makes clear the decision means asking questions about which variables—like credit limit and interest rate, products individual customers are most or channel and price—and the constraints likely to buy next, and when they are most that need to be met, such as expected losses likely to make the purchase. If customers not exceeding some pre-determined value. 6
  • 8. Simplified view of a decision model for a credit line increase Figure 1 At the core of this model are predictions initial expectations, rather than simply about how customers will react to potential following a long list of metrics. actions. Generally, these are the models that n because there is an explicit Third, determine the effectiveness of the decisions objective, the decision model forms an that get created. However, it is very common excellent basis for the comparison and for decision makers and analysts to create simulation of one possible strategy their decisions with a complete absence of against another. any formal understanding of these action- reaction relationships. Not surprisingly, this In addition to making the drivers of a leads to lost opportunity. decision clear, a decision model can be “solved” by mathematical optimization. The decision model concept creates the best Optimization pinpoints the single best starting place for three crucial steps to strategy for maximizing or minimizing a improving decisions: particular goal. The output of optimization is nadapting the parameters and First, the assignment, at the level of individual constraints of the model for some new customers, of the best actions or treatments circumstance forms a sound way of for what you're trying to accomplish at the creating new decision logic. You are portfolio or organizational level. The resulting addressing the change at the structural solution can be expressed as a decision tree. level, not editing some derived construct. Using optimization and simulation with a n because the decision model Second, well-developed decision model, you can makes the underlying relationships explore how much impact a current explicit, it becomes much clearer what constraint is having on your projected results information should be tracked to and what would happen if you adjusted it. For understand if a strategy is playing out as example, you could answer the question: “If expected. You can track results against we allowed a slightly higher level of bad debt 7
  • 9. Optimizing a credit line management decision strategy Figure 2 losses, could we reduce attrition and improve only the economy, but changing customer profit?” As shown in Figure 2, this process behavior and new regulations. These identifies a spectrum of optimized developments are causing even more changes strategies—an “efficient frontier” of potential in consumer behavior. operating points. Exploring this frontier To cope with such upheavals, top performers helps you better understand key performance are continuing to analyze historical data, but dynamics and select the optimal operating also probing their markets by conducting point that is currently best for your business. rapid-cycle designed experiments. They're The drivers of an effective decision are there analyzing the results to learn as quickly as whether the decision maker recognizes them possible about changing market dynamics, explicitly or not. An analytically smart and to identify which offers, policies and business will realize this, and be well along the actions are working best now. They are path to improving business performance. following the proven principles of experimental design to learn more from fewer 3. Rethink What it Means to tests. This mature discipline aims at creating be Data-driven When the experiments whose results can be accurately Future is Not Like the Past analyzed and causes of variations understood. A well-designed series of To use analytics in smarter ways, companies experiments eliminates the need to test every can no longer rely solely on historical data. option—or even all the best options—because This can be seen clearly in the financial enough has been learned already to services industry, where consumers have extrapolate the outcome. changed their behavior in response to In a high-performing analytic organization, a economic stress. Creditors have changed certain proportion of new or “challenger” their offers and policies in response to not strategies will be purposefully designed to 8
  • 10. produce “controlled variation.” If you test individual with a credit score of 620 is likely only challenger strategies that are close to to have a default rate much closer to that how you currently do business, you will limit traditionally associated with a score of 614. what you can learn from your data. If, In a very severe recession, the default rate is however, you push the design of some likely to look a lot more like that of a 600. challengers outside of the bounds of business This does not mean that the score is as usual, you will introduce variation into “broken”—it may rank-order risk just as your data and expand what you can learn strongly as ever, but the performance of from it. customers at each score has degraded. In a practical situation, it is never as simple With this kind of economic impact as the challenger beats the champion. simulation, lenders can select the economic Well-designed strategies do not even set forecast they believe is probable, then use the out with this goal in mind. They set out to associated index metrics to adjust their score push the relationships that underlie the cutoffs for credit approval. In this way, it is decision model so that learning increases possible to maintain a fairly consistent understanding. Think of them not as default rate across changing economic challengers to replace a champion, but as conditions. learning strategies. This cycle, in turn, leads to a new champion and another round of 5. Balance Automation testing. By exploring a wider range of with Expertise possibilities, you increase the chances of discovering unique insights that might More analytics does not mean less need for lead to competitive differentiation. You are human expertise. Automated discovery of also less likely to be caught flat-footed when patterns and automation of modeling the forces of change shake up the status quo. processes are important tools that can speed the process of improving decisions. The 4. Factor Macro-economic economic meltdown has shown, however, Forecasts into Analytics that letting the machines do all the thinking can lead to catastrophe. It is clear that abrupt economic changes, such Analytic expertise informed by deep domain as severe recessions, can cause actual customer knowledge is essential to building effective behavior to shift from what historical data predictive and decision models. This says it should be. In the recent downturn, expertise is indispensable for dealing with credit default rates rose significantly above everything from data bias to inadequate the rates historically associated with standard sample sizes. credit score ranges. Today's analytic announcements focus on the Today, there are new analytic methods for need to use analytics to crunch through forecasting how such macro-economic petabytes of data. While this is true, it is only conditions are likely to impact customer part of the story. Given today's dynamic behavior and change results. These analytics market conditions, businesses need analytics are now being used to generate an index of to make decisions for which they do not have how much default rates are likely to increase petabytes of data—or at least not petabytes of or decrease under a range of economic relevant data. That is why you need to rely on forecasts. This index enables lenders to see, analytic experts to get the most predictive for example, that in a moderate recession, an value from what you have to work with. 9
  • 11. Expertise makes the difference between analytic complexity must be justified. models that perform so-so and those that A senior manager should be able to get clear perform at a very high level. This answers to: “Why does this customer decision performance edge comes from the expert's need to be so complicated? What value are ability to interpret nuances in the data we getting from it? What are we learning? in order to find the best predictive How is this going to make tomorrow's characteristics for a desired performance decisions better than today's?” outcome. It comes from knowing how to Some complexity, of course, is good. It is validate models without “over-fitting” them how a company finds new niches of to the data they were developed from, and customers and tries to improve the decisions how to fine-tune models to a company's it makes about those customers. Much specific real-world business conditions. unnecessary complexity, however, can be Above all, the analyst's understanding of the traced back to two root causes: 1) Trying to context in which a model will be used—and improve decisions by starting with the the decision it is supposed to improve—is decision tree rather than the decision model; absolutely critical. and 2) The inefficiencies of the decision tree as a means of representation. 6. Justify Complexity and Increase Transparency Editing a decision tree of any size is an inherently risky venture. This form of Businesses are operating in an increasingly representation is visually complicated, complex world, and it follows that analytics and therefore, working within it, one can must often be complex as well. Nevertheless, easily make mistakes. By comparison, the Comparison of two decision trees Figure 3 New strategy design tools simplify the visualization of complex strategies. This helps in the comparison of different strategies, such as in this example, which highlights the score cutoff change difference in two collection strategies. 10
  • 12. underlying decision model can be much nodes, and it is not unusual to have trees simpler to understand and change. Edit the with many thousands of nodes, hence the decision model, and you will have a better magnitude of the problem. grasp of the structural reasons for the changes you are making, and thus can have Conclusion confidence in the decision tree derived from it, no matter how complex. In the post-crisis era, the companies that When it is necessary to edit or “prune back” succeed with analytics will not be those that the resulting decision tree a bit, you need simply use more of them, they will be those tools that help you navigate across it to focus that use them in smarter ways. Above all, to in on just the places requiring attention. You really succeed with analytics, you need to also need tools that help you understand how understand the context of the data, the much fidelity to the decision model you are operational context of the decision and the giving up by making these edits. underlying business relationships that you are modeling. You just cannot do that by The best tools also enable you to compare the going click-click-click. original decision strategy to the changed strategy. Starting with the decision model, you understand the structural reasons for the References changes. Comparing the trees then shows you the differences in the decision logic. This just 1. Market Overview: The Business Intelligence is not possible when comparing “raw” trees Software Market, Forrester Research, Inc. with anything beyond a small number of 10/23/09, p7 11
  • 13. Analytics in Financial Services 02 Structuring the Unstructured Bala Venkatesh Group Project Kiran Kalmadi Senior Consultant, Shivani Aggarwal Consultant, Data: The Convergence of Manager, Infosys Technologies Infosys Technologies Limited Infosys Technologies Limited Structured and Unstructured Limited Analytics Today, 80% of business is carried out on unstructured data—documents, call center logs, blogs, wikis, tweets, and surveys. Neglecting to analyze such data leads to ignored risks, uninformed decisions, and missed opportunities. Financial services firms are increasingly analyzing unstructured data to understand customer needs, prevent frauds and expand the customer base. Analytics plays a key role in analyzing unstructured data and transforming it into actionable intelligence. The rapid adoption of social media by the financial services industry has resulted in an even higher percentage of unstructured data being generated. This has prompted firms to increasingly look at social analytics to derive structured insights out of social media. As unstructured and structured data analytics are converging, financial institutions are looking for analytic vendors to come up with products that blend unstructured analytics (like social analytics) with structured analytics (risk analytics). This article analyzes unstructured data, the various analytics vendors in the space, and applications in the financial services industry. have significant business value. However, due to Unstructured Data: What is it? insufficient search techniques and inadequate technologies, businesses are usually not able Unstructured data refers to data that does to derive the right answers—leading to not exist in a database. Unstructured data can inappropriate decision-making. be textual or non-textual and takes the form of text, audio and images (refer to Figure 1 for Unstructured analytics help businesses analyze more on the different sources of unstructured unstructured data and transform it into data). Unlike structured transaction data— actionable insights. These primarily consist of which tells what customers did—unstructured text analytics, audio (or speech) analytics data provides insights into why they did it, and video (or image) analytics. Social media what else they want to do, and what problems analytics are an important form of text analytics they may have. The answers to these questions making inroads.
  • 14. Types of data Figure 1 Structured Semi-Structured UnStructured ? & Legacy Relation XML ? Web ? Databases EDI Documents ? E-Mails ? Spreadsheets ? Wikipedia ? ? with Proper Flat Files Multimedia (Video, ? Record Formats Audio) RSS Feeds ? Within Corporate Messages ? Static Real Time Internal ? ? Center Customer Documents Call Logs Sales Report ? ? Center Customer Marketing ? Representative Notes Material ?Rooms Trading Analysts ? ? News Breaking Reports ?Pricing Market Internet Formal/Legal ? ? Events Weather Filings (SEC, ? Actions Corporate FDIC) Chat Rooms ? Journals ? Social Media ? Platforms Text Analytics Unstructured Data Analytics Text analytics enable businesses to derive Analysis of any form of unstructured value from large quantities of text. This text data that helps transform it into can be available either in existing repositories actionable intelligence is called or can be newly generated or acquired. This is “Unstructured Data Analytics”. Structured done by extracting and interpreting relevant data analytics uses business intelligence information to reveal patterns and relationships. Figure 2 elaborates the text tools for querying and reporting, analytics process in detail. whereas unstructured data analytics utilizes text processing and keyword Text analytics is gaining importance in all searches (to locate documents in servers). industry segments (specifically the financial Unstructured analytics has evolved over services industry), mainly because of the huge time, moving towards next generation chunks of textual data being generated techniques like video and audio analytics month after month by every organization (which are rarely used in the financial (both within and outside the organization). services industry) and text analytics With the advent of Web 2.0 & 3.0, there is a (also known as text mining). greater emphasis on information-sharing 14
  • 15. Text analytics process Figure 2 Information Transforming Analytics Reporting Delivery Retrieval Text Collect and ? Content ? Selecting ? Different ? Taking steps to ? retrieve cleaning, attributes, mechanisms augment information removing discovering for notifying existing data & from both duplicates, patterns, results, like store enriched internal & language interpreting & dashboards, information external recognition, analyzing the alerts, etc. sources etc. results and user-collaboration using social In recent months, a host of social media networking sites. Interactions and posts on analytic products--from vendors such as these sites play a huge role in shaping IBM, SAS, Scout Labs, and Radian6--have consumer sentiments about businesses, hit the markets. These products will help services, competition, and markets. Hence, banks and other financial services companies corporations are investing in social media monitor and measure the performance analytics tools that use text analytics to of their social media campaigns—enabling understand customer sentiments, and banks to make informed decisions. address them proactively. Social Media Analytics Key Vendors in Unstructured Data Analytics Social media analytics derive and measure key results from social media. Social media The unstructured data analytics software analytic tools use algorithms and approaches market is relatively new, and the vendors in for automated analysis of blogs, chats, emails this space are still emerging and shaping and other related social media. Key areas their lines-of-businesses. SPSS (acquired by addressed by social media analytic tools are: IBM) and SAS are the major players. There are a number of other vendors who n the relevant blogs - Identifying Finding specialize in offering text analytic—tools and the relevant blogs and forums for a tools for the monitoring and measurement business of social media. n Detecting sentiment - Detecting the The Road Ahead for Vendors sentiments expressed about a company, product or new launch The future lies in bridging the gap between structured and unstructured data and n Measuring the influence and authority creating products that blend unstructured of key bloggers - Identifying the key analytics with structured analytics. The bloggers and how they are influencing the challenge for vendors is creating structured thought process of others on the web data from unstructured information. The n topics of interest masked in Detecting combination of various data sources and conversations on social network sites. different types of data to drive business is 15
  • 16. definitely worth exploring for vendors. and perspectives about a company's services The road ahead for vendors will be or products through social media. Most characterized by: financial services firms still rely only on structured data analytics for customer n Integration of social media analytics intelligence. Unless these structured data with text analytics- Vendors will be analytics are blended with social media looking to integrate social media analytics, it is very difficult to achieve analytics with text analytics. In recent actionable customer intelligence. times, social media monitoring vendors have started to merge with text mining Stock Market Prediction analytic vendors. Social media Predicting stock market movements is a monitoring as a stand-alone capability of challenge for investors due to lack of vendors will, thus, not stay for long. consistent prediction methods. However, n Text analytics will be made available research shows that there is a strong as a component of other applications- relationship between news stories and stock Text analytics applications will move price movements. Predicting the stock price away from being siloed applications movements based on news items is gaining towards being a part or a component of increased importance in the text mining other applications in the business. In community. such a set-up, insights derived from Fraud Detection analysis of unstructured textual content will automatically flow on a real-time Financial institutions lose millions of dollars basis into the business for key decision- to fraud every year. In banking, fraud arises as making. a result of stolen credit cards, forged checks, misleading accounting practices, etc. n Convergence of various types of analytics- There will be a rapid growth of Financial services firms need to have combinations of different types of improved analytical capabilities to reduce analytics. For instance, text analytics fraud levels and the associated costs. with predictive analytics is expected to A common thread in the above three make rapid headway. Financial services application scenarios is a proper blend of firms will begin using a combination of structured analytics and various forms of text analytics and predictive analytics for unstructured analytics. A well-blended risk management and fraud management solution is much better than traditional on a large scale. analytics solutions. A key challenge in using unstructured Applications of Unstructured Analytics in Banking, Financial data analytics is that the unstructured Services and Insurance (BFSI) data rarely has a consistent internal infrastructure, or metadata (unlike the Figure 3 highlights a few of the specific structured data), and hence it is far more application areas within the BFSI segment complex to analyze and model. Despite these where unstructured analytics can be readily difficulties, businesses are incorporating, deployed. and should continue to incorporate, unstructured analytics efficiently into their Customer Relationship Management processes, mainly because of the extensive Customers share ideas, insights, experiences business value derived from such analysis. 16
  • 17. Application areas of unstructured analytics Figure 3 Customer Relationship Management Fraud Detection Stock Market Prediction Improving customer experience in a bank using unstructured analytics Scenario: noffered several services to customers through its online banking channel. Each A bank typically involved multiple complex user interactions. n using these services felt that the website was not user friendly and they started Customers moving to other banks based on that sentiment. They also started sharing negative sentiments about the bank in online forums. n Many customers did not even have the patience to respond to the online customer survey feedback form. Challenges Faced by the Bank Solution Recommendation using Unstructured Analytics ¡ Lack of tools for achieving a 360 ? Optimum Solution: A blend of view of customers, resulting in poor structured analytics using business customer retention rate. intelligence tools and social media analytics. Public relations disaster due to the ? ? utilizes social media analytic The bank negative sentiments expressed in tools to analyze online consumer online forums. forums and blogs. Along with this, the bank analyzes the Voice of Customer results collected from its own Business Intelligence (BI) tool. This blended solution helps to ? accurately predict the customer sentiment and invest intelligently on customer experience management. This a shift from the traditional approach of only analyzing the Voice of Customer survey and Net Promoter Score, which would not have yielded the desired result. 17
  • 18. Stock market prediction using unstructured analytics Scenario: Stock market research is primarily based on two trading philosophies, namely, a) Fundamental ? - in which the prediction is based on the security's data—price to earnings ratios, return on equities, etc., and b) Technical - which uses charts and modeling techniques for prediction. ? fundamental and technical analyses, information from quarterly reports and Apart from breaking news also plays a major role in the movement of share price. Prediction has always been a challenge, since there has not been much success in analyzing this textual data. Challenges faced Solution Recommendation using Unstructured Analytics ? stock market prediction Inaccurate Optimum Solution: A combination of when a breaking news story or Structured analytics (using technical quarterly results are declared, leading approach) and Unstructured analytics to huge losses for the brokers and (using fundamental approach). investors. In a technical approach, the historical ? data of a stock is analyzed and a linear regression is run to determine the price trend. In a fundamental approach, article ? terms in financial news, shareholder's reports etc. are assigned a weight. Using the Bag of Words, Noun Phrasing & Named Entities techniques*, the textual key words that relate to “earnings” or “loss” are identified. ? of both the approaches are The results combined to arrive at a predictable outcome (up, down, or unchanged movement of the stock price). ? 4 for understanding the Refer Figure solution steps in a typical financial news analytical system. Financial news analytical system Figure 4 Fundamental Approach Technical Approach (Unstructured Analytics) (Structured Analytics) Textual Analytics New Regression Stock Techniques like DB Article Analysis Quotes Bags of Words Stock Error Analysis Stock Market Market Prediction Model Prediction * These are specific approaches that use linguistic textual representations. 18
  • 19. Detection of fraud in insurance companies using unstructured analytics Scenario: ? the insurance industry can occur in any stage of the transaction and can be Frauds in committed by any party (i.e. new customers, policy holders, third party claimants or any other party involved in the transaction). Typical frauds include inflating actual claims, misrepresenting facts, and submitting claims ? for damages that never occurred. Challenges Faced by Insurance Solution Recommendation using Companies Unstructured Analytics ?approach for fraud detection ·Reactive Optimum Solution: A combination of whereby the insurance companies structured predictive analytics, speech investigate only after a fraudulent analytics and social media analytics. claim is made. ? modeling combined with text Predictive ·Fraud investigation process is lengthy ? and social media analytics can be used and expensive, as an investigative to detect and prevent fraud. officer has to investigate personally to detect any suspicious activity in ? the predictive model are from Inputs to claims. internal & external watch lists of criminals who previously engaged in Limited fraud prevention mechanisms. ? fraud, diagnostic fraud indicators based on surveys taken by the claim handlers, anomaly patterns, profile details of individuals, etc. ? of the predictive model The results combined with the result of claimant's speech analytics (to detect whether the claimant is lying or not) along with the results of social media analytics (to detect the relationship among the policy holders) can be used to generate a risk score of the claimant. ?score can then be used to This risk detect fraud customers even before issuing the policy. coming up with solutions to integrate Conclusion structured analytics with unstructured analytics. By converging unstructured analytics There is an increasing requirement into the structured analytics mix, businesses within organizations to inquire and are seeing substantial improvements in the accuracy and relevance of their analytic analyze across structured and unstructured initiatives. Incorporating analytics blends data. Integrating unstructured data with into business processes is a growing trend; structured data is quite a challenge. Despite however, they must be correctly applied to a the challenges, many analytics vendors are specific business scenario, and companies 19
  • 20. must act on the results appropriately. The convergence of unstructured analytics with structured analytics is no longer an “if”, but rather a “when”. 20
  • 21. Analytics in Financial Services 03 Fusing Economic Forecasts Dr. Andrew Jennings Chief Research Officer Carolyn Wang Senior Manager, and Head of FICO Labs, Analytics, with Credit Risk Analysis FICO FICO As many in the financial services industry prepare for measured economic recovery, it's critical to take stock of a key lesson of the financial crisis: that risk, by its nature, is dynamic. Today's economic realities call for a paradigm shift in risk management—one that includes new analytics that go beyond the traditional assumption that past risk levels are indicative of future risk. This article discusses new methods for systematically incorporating economic data into scoring systems, allowing lenders to balance consumer level information with changing economic trends. It also shares results from lender applications of this methodology to “get ahead of the curve” by more closely aligning risk strategies with future performance. In 2005 and 2006, for instance, a default rate of Why a New Approach is Needed 2% was associated with a score of approximately 650–660. By 2007, this default rate was associated Traditional assumptions that recent default rates with a score of about 710—a 50 to 60 point shift. will be representative of future defaults works This risk shift was most likely due to economic reasonably well if the lending environment decline after a period of more lenient lending remains relatively stable. But in situations where practices, such as adjustable rate mortgages external factors are changing rapidly, it can be and no-documentation (“no-doc”) loans. dangerous to assume the risk levels associated Lenders in 2007 who made decisions assuming with scores will remain stable over time. that 670 still represented 2% default saw increases Take the recent credit crisis as a case in point. in their default levels, when the actual default Figure 1 (next page) shows the observed default was about 4.5%. ® rate at each FICO Score range for real estate loans. Many lenders do attempt to anticipate changes Each line represents a large random sample of in economic conditions and adjust strategies existing accounts evaluated over different time accordingly—for example, tightening origination periods and the default rates one year later. policies and reducing credit lines in a recession, As the graph shows, the risk levels associated or loosening policies in an upturn. But lenders with accounts in 2005 (blue curve) versus 2006 often make these changes judgmentally, and as a (red curve) were already diverging. One year later, result, there is a tendency to over-correct and miss there were much greater risk levels associated key revenue opportunities, or under-correct and with all but the very highest scores (green curve retain more portfolio risk than desired. shifts more dramatically upward).
  • 22. Risk levels can shift dramatically over time Figure 1 Next Evolution of influence the risk profile of newly booked Predictive Analytics and existing accounts. n Competition. As consumers are To restore profitability in a post-crisis presented with more (or less) attractive economy, lenders need an objective and offers by the competition, attrition will empirical approach to measure changing change the population. conditions and translate these into more effective strategies. The next generation More specifically, lenders need analytics of predictive analytics must go beyond that predict the impact of the above factors the assumption that only past risk levels on future risk levels for each account. In other are representative of future risk. Instead, words, the analytics must consider the risk estimates should also account for the macro-economic view of market conditions impact of: within the micro-analysis of individual consumer risk. The analytics must be n The economy. Consumers' ability to flexible enough to take into account what repay changes as the economy shifts. is known—the historical data available Some lower-risk consumers may to derive past patterns and current economic refinance in downturns, leaving behind conditions—as well as what is expected— a portfolio of riskier consumers. forecasted views of the future. Others may reach their breaking points through job loss or increased payment Given the ready availability of economic data, lenders can first take into account the impact requirements. Higher-risk consumers of economic factors on future risk estimates. get stretched further, resulting in more In addition, lenders should begin to track frequent and severe delinquencies and changes in their strategies and competitive defaults. factors, which can be incorporated into n strategies. Changes in lender Lender future risk estimates as the data becomes policies across the account lifecycle can robust enough. 22
  • 23. Analytics Tuned to Future are expected to behave differently under Performance varying economic conditions. This methodology builds upon existing Next-generation analytics can provide risk tools used by lenders, enabling quick lenders with an understanding of how and seamless implementation. It can be the future risk level associated with scores applied to a variety of scores, such as will change, based on current and projected origination scores, behavior scores, broad- economic conditions. Based on past based bureau scores like the FICO® Score, dynamics, the analytics derive the and Basel II risk metrics. empirical relationship between the default rates observed at different score ranges When applied to these scores, lenders gain (e.g., the risk score's odds-to-score an additional dimension to their risk relationship) as seen on the lender's predictions so they can better: portfolio, and historical changes in n Limit losses. Lenders would have greater economic conditions. Using this derived insight on how to tighten up credit relationship, lenders can then input current policies sooner and for the right and anticipated economic conditions to populations during a downturn. project the expected odds-to-score outcome under those conditions. They can examine n Grow portfolios competitively. Lenders economic indicators such as unemployment could more quickly determine when and rate, interest rate and Gross Domestic how to proactively loosen up credit Product (GDP). policies as markets recover. With such a relationship, it is possible to n for the future. Lenders could Prepare relate the impact of economic factors on simulate the impact of future macro- odds, default rates and scores. This relationship economic conditions on scores, can be derived at an overall portfolio level or to better adjust longer-term strategies more finely for key customer segments that and stress-test portfolios. More accurately predict default rates with analytics Figure 2 tuned to economic impact 23
  • 24. n Meet regulatory compliance. Lenders Over a three-year time span, predictions ® could better set capital reserves by from the FICO Economic Impact Service 2 creating more accurate, forward-looking, reduced the error rate by 73%, compared to long-run/downturn estimates required the traditional prediction. by Basel II. In practice, economically adjusted Grow Portfolios Responsibly analytics generate a more accurate risk prediction that's better tuned to Within originations, the lender primarily economic conditions. For instance, FICO determines whether or not to accept the loan recently applied this methodology—called as well as the initial loan price/amount. Using ® the FICO Economic Impact Service—to economically adjusted analytics, a lender can a behavior score used by a leading US set a cutoff score based on the anticipated credit card issuer. Figure 2 (previous page) future default rate, as opposed to the historical compares three metrics: default rate. The lender can maintain the desired portfolio risk levels by adjusting cutoff n The actual bad rate observed on the scores as the economy changes. portfolio over time (blue line). Figure 3 shows how a lender can view the n rates predicted by the behavior The bad current default rate by score range (orange score aligned to historical odds line) and predict how the default curve would performance (orange line)—traditional 1 shift under different economic conditions. approach . During a recession, the curve may shift to the n rates predicted by the behavior The bad dark blue line. The lender can update its score aligned to anticipated odds cutoff score from the “Current Cutoff” to the performance (green line)—FICO ® “Cutoff–Recession” based on empirical Economic Impact Service approach. The guidance. This allows the lender to limit economic conditions used were limited losses by proactively tightening credit in to what was known at the time of scoring. anticipation of the downturn. Flexibly adjust score cutoffs under different economic conditions Figure 3 24
  • 25. Conversely, during a time of economic traditional behavior score across the full growth, the curve may shift to the light range of account management actions. blue line. The lender can update its cutoff As an example, for a US credit card issuer, score to the “Cutoff–Growth.” This allows FICO retroactively used a FICO® Economic the lender to loosen credit policies in Impact behavior score in place of the anticipation of an economic upturn, and traditional FICO ® TRIAD ® Customer bring in more profitable customers ahead Manager pooled behavior score for a credit line of competitors. decrease strategy and for collection actions. The FICO recently partnered with a European key question was: in April 2008 (a period of ® ® lender to apply the FICO Economic relative economic calm), could FICO Impact Service to its personal loan portfolio. Economic Impact Service help the lender Faced with sky-rocketing delinquencies anticipate the economic turmoil six months that were 2-3 times historical levels, the later and minimize its financial impact? lender sought to beat the market by FICO analyzed performance in October 2008 proactively adjusting origination strategies and compared the different decisions made ahead of its competition. Using the by the two scores. Figure 4 shows the line results from the economically adjusted decrease results. analytics, the lender saw opportunity to improve its profit per applicant by US $11.50. The columns of interest are the “Swap In” and “Swap Out”, since they illustrate where A similar approach can be taken for initial different decisions would be made. The loan amount and pricing strategies. second column identifies accounts that would have received decreases using the Improve Account Management Decisions Economic Impact score, but did not receive decreases by the traditional behavior Lenders use behavior scores to help score (the accounts would be “swapped in” manage accounts already on their books if the lender had used the Economic for credit line management, authorizations, Impact score). The third column identifies loan re-pricing and cross-sell decisions. accounts that the Economic Impact score An “economically impacted” behavior score would not have decreased and the traditional could be used in place of or along with the behavior score did decrease. Economic Impact score better identifies higher-risk Figure 4 accounts for line decreases 25
  • 26. The highlighted cells show that the behavior also would have not decreased accounts less score for these two populations are almost the sensitive to the downturn, reflected by same (swap-in: 643 vs. swap-out: 646). In other slightly higher scores. words, the behavior score identified both The actual bad rates seen six months later populations as at relatively the same risk level. reinforces that the Economic Impact score ® However, the FICO Economic Impact score identified riskier accounts (swap-in: 10.5% vs. was better able to distinguish risk among swap-out: 7.9%). If the lender had decreased these populations. Using this score, the credit lines on the appropriate accounts, it lender would have decreased more accounts could have realized a yearly loss savings of that would be negatively affected by the roughly US $2.4 million and a net savings of downturn (average score of 625). The lender US $1.7 million, shown in Figures 5–6. ® Yearly loss savings using FICO Economic Impact Service Figure 5 ® Yearly net savings using FICO Economic Impact Service Figure 6 26
  • 27. Figure 7 illustrates how the lender could Limit Collection Losses have saved close to US $4 million by taking aggressive action earlier. FICO In times of economic turmoil, it's even more calculated this using the number of actual critical for lenders to proactively manage bad accounts that would have received collection efforts. Economically adjusted accelerated treatment, average account scores can be applied on existing behavior or balance and industry roll rates. collection scores to help lenders identify which accounts will become riskier and Combining this roughly US $4 million in should receive increased collection priority. collection savings with the US $1.7 million savings from the credit line decrease strategy, For the same US card issuer, FICO the lender would have saved US $5.6 million. retroactively used an economically impacted This illustrates the aggregate benefits of the behavior score in place of the traditional service when used across two areas in a behavior score to treat early-stage (cycle 1) customer lifecycle. Clearly, the benefits delinquent accounts. Prioritizing accounts by would be scalable for larger portfolios. ® risk, the strategy using the FICO Economic Impact behavior score would have targeted Set more Accurate Provisions 41% of the population for more aggressive and Capital Reserves treatment in April 2008. FICO then examined the resulting bad rates six months When setting provisions and capital reserves, later (October 2008), and saw that these it is important to understand the risk in the accounts resulted in higher default rates. portfolio under stressed economic conditions. Having forward-looking risk In other words, the Economic Impact score predictions is explicitly mandated by Basel II better identified accounts that should receive regulations, and should be part of any more aggressive treatment in anticipation of lender's best practice risk management. the downturn six months later. Using this strategy, the lender would have been ahead of FICO worked with an Eastern European its competition in collecting on the same lender to apply FICO® Economic Impact limited dollars. Service to its Basel II Probability of Default ® Yearly loss reduction using FICO Economic Impact Service Figure 7 27
  • 28. (PD) models. Using the derived odds-to-score aligned to current and future expected relationship between its PD score and economic conditions, lenders can more economic conditions, the lender can quickly adjust to a dynamic market and steer simulate the expected PD at a risk grade their portfolios for the uncertainties ahead. level under various economic scenarios. Thus, the lender can more accurately References calculate forward-looking, long-run PD estimates to better meet regulatory 1. Some scores are periodically “aligned” to requirements and calculate capital reserves. maintain a consistent odds-to-score relationship over time—for example, to Redefine Risk Management ensure a behavior score of 675 equals a Best Practices target odds of 30 to 1. Traditionally, behavior scores have been aligned to the There's no better time for lenders to re- odds observed in the last six months. evaluate risk management practices in order to better prepare for measured growth or 2. Error rate is defined as the absolute buffer against a lingering recession. Forward- difference between the actual bad rate and looking analytic tools will become the risk predicted bad rate as a percentage of management best practices of tomorrow. actual bad rate. With improved risk predictions better 28
  • 29. Analytics in Financial Services 04 Unstructured Data Dilip Nair Project Manager, Srinivasan V Ramanujam Engagement Manager, Allen Selvaraj Senior Technical Architect, Banking and Capital Banking and Capital Systems Integration Analytics for Enterprise Markets Practice, Markets Practice, Practice, Infosys Technologies Infosys Technologies Infosys Technologies Resilience Limited Limited Limited The recent financial crisis has shown us how various industries and entities are linked to each other through a complex web of relationships. This crisis also exposed the ability (or lack thereof) of companies, industries and even countries to plan and respond to the changes around them. This article talks about how an analytics platform can help organizations to monitor and manage changes proactively—thereby infusing a dose of resilience against rapid, unexpected changes. Two large financial organizations, Bank-A and its Introduction primary competitor, Bank-B, relied on the same offshore Vendor-X. When Vendor-X had financial Enterprise Resilience is an effort across the troubles, resulting in huge attrition and filing of organization to anticipate and successfully bankruptcy, these two banks were at risk of navigate adversity. Literally, resilience refers to experiencing potential disruption of ongoing the power or ability to regain the original shape, projects. form or position after being bent, compressed or stretched (subjected to adverse conditions). The Bank-A identified and responded to this incident term 'Enterprise Resilience' has been subject to in real-time; they worked with other vendors to various interpretations in the industry as it varies ensure that their projects were de-risked before from government agencies, to non-government the actual bankruptcy of Vendor-X occurred. organizations, to financial organizations, to IT Bank-B, on the other hand, was slow to identify vendors. Enterprise Resilience is not disaster and respond to the incident. Their projects recovery or business continuity, but is the new continued to depend on Vendor-X, with DNA for risk management that alters the insufficient back-up, because Bank-A had the organization's approach from proactive to first mover's advantage to scoop up available adaptive, assuming that the bridge from reactive resources. What followed is predictable. Bank-A's to proactive has been crossed. projects were delivered on time and under budget, and they were able to gain market share, Consider the following hypothetical example. It whereas Bank-B lost market share. is based on a real life scenario involving two organizations encountering the same incident, While this is a hypothetical scenario, the reality but responding very differently. of market share gained and lost defines the new
  • 30. world of business. In this flat world, the reported their 20 t h billion tweet). definition of risk, dependencies, and Another study puts the value of social risk management have all changed. networking sites beyond the Gross Domestic Traditionally, risk management delivered Product (GDP) of some countries (Facebook one-dimensional solutions—focused on – 11.5 billion, Twitter – 1.4 billion and mitigating risks by addressing vulnerable growing). This valuation is undoubtedly tied areas. This approach has failed to include to the enormous amounts of unstructured and address the various interdependencies data that users create on their profile pages, that characterize the flat world we operate walls or tweets. in today. By understanding the broader The best way to be prepared for any threat risk, and managing risk across the is for an organization's operation to mine extended enterprise, Bank-A demonstrated this huge amount of data and extract greater Enterprise Resilience. meaningful scenarios. In this article, the With globalization, enhanced regulatory focus is on how to mine unstructured scrutiny, a competitive marketplace, data channels with a specific objective in mind—build better resilience for an organizational interdependencies (at a organization. For simplicity, two data level never seen before), and evolving channels will be featured in this article technological challenges emerging, the types (highlighted section in Figure 1). The of risks being faced by the organization concept can be replicated for most other are new, unique and challenging. Being information sources: proactive and adaptive requires that organizations be aware of the ever-changing n (non-formal): With a strong user- · Twitter business and geo-political environment. base, any breaking news is immediately Doing so requires that organizations harness propagated through 'tweets'. (Tweets are every bit of data that is available—federal text-based posts of up to 140 characters and regulatory updates, geo-political news, displayed on the author's profile that are weather updates, emergency service updates, visible either publicly by default or by business and financial updates, and social restricted followers.) networking sites. There are several services nnews websites (formal): Websites— · Media that offer the above in a packaged format. such as NewzCrawler, FeedDemon, However, one of the most undertutilized Google Reader, Omea Reader, Bloglines, data sources is the unstructured data NewsGator and scoopitonline—act as emerging from social networking sites. collectors of breaking news from various According to data scientists, nearly formal news channels and RSS feeds. 80% of today's data is unstructured. New information channels—like the Mining/ Modeling – Identification and internet (Facebook, Twitter), email, instant Classification messaging (chat), text messaging (SMS), and voice-over-IP (phone calls)—are The data channels described in Figure 1 are generating enormous stores of non- unstructured. The next step in the process traditional data at a mind-boggling is to mine/ model this data to derive potential pace. According to recent estimates, Twitter scenarios (highlighted section in Figure 2). users create approximately 7 Terabytes of There are many unstructured data analytics data in a day (on 30th July 2010, Twitter packages available in the market (for example, 30
  • 31. Step 1: Twitter and media websites as data channels Figure 1 Rich Profile Data (Location Attributes and Past Events) Twitter RS S Fe ed Improved s Data Google Mash-ups Analytics Response Landing Text Store for Geo-locational Reports & Zone Analytics Engine Times & Cost (ODS) Tagging Dashboards Savings Identification s eed & Classification SF Media RS Websites HIMI from Infosys, AeroText from Rock perform sentiment analyses to enable software, Attensity360 from Attensity, behavioral and predictive capabilities. Lexalytics, Enterprise Miner data-mining n · Categorization of data and classifying workbench from SAS). These packages it into appropriate buckets, like provide a very good GUI-based approach environmental disasters, man-made for viewing data to build, test and publish incidents/ threats, stock market changes, models using: geo-political activities like administration n for words, word patterns or · Searches changes, policy changes, civil unrest, strikes strings to identify emerging events and to and boycotts, and other forms of gain insights into potential threats. The disruption to business. input to this would be a library of words, n fine-tuned by client, industry · Patterns word patterns or strings that are pre- segment and geography. The objective is selected and fed to the tool. to vary these patterns so they can capture n · Distinguish message patterns (tweets) for small, medium or large incidents while emotions and stress. This can be used to avoiding false positives. Step 2: Identification and classification of incoming data Figure 2 Rich Profile Data (Location Attributes and Past Events) Twitter RS S Fe ed Improved s Data Google Mash-ups Response Landing Text Store for Geo-locational Analytics Reports & Zone Analytics Engine Times & Cost (ODS) Tagging Dashboards Savings Identification s d Fee Media & Classification S RS Websites 31