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Agenda Time Minutes Topic  Person in Charge 10:00 – 10:30 30 Registration Reception 10:30 – 10:35 5 Introduction DGCA/IndII & Mr Whittle 10:35 – 10:50 15 Summary & Overall Conclusions Mr Whittle 10:50 – 11:00 10 Methodology & Stakeholders Mr Whittle 11:00 – 11:25 25 Policy & Regulation Mr O’Donovan 11:25 – 11:50 25 Demand Forecasts Mr Folley 11:50 – 12:15 25 Airlines Mr Whittle 12:15 – 12:40 25 Airspace LFV 12:40 – 13:05 25 Airports Mr Whittle 13:05 – 13:30 25 Social & Economic Impact Ms Congdon 13:30 – 13:40 10 Implementation Mr Whittle 13:40 – 13:45 5 Closing Remarks Mr Whittle 13:45 – 15:00 75 Question & Answer Session Moderator
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object],[object Object]
Conclusions & Recommendations
Aviation & Competition Law ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Demand Forecasts & Open Skies Benefit (2025) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],    2010 2025 AAGR Indonesia Domestic Passengers (mn) 87 255 7.5% Indonesia International Passengers (mn) 19 67 8.9% Indonesia Domestic Aircraft Movements (000) 781 1,848 5.9% Indonesia International Aircraft Movements (000) 127 390 7.8% Indonesia Domestic Air Cargo (tons 000) 480 2,070 10.2% Indonesia International Air Cargo (tons 000) 286 1,380 11.1% Jakarta Domestic Passengers (mn) 32 107 8.4% Jakarta International Passengers (mn) 10 37 9.5% Jakarta Domestic Aircraft Movements (000) 247 679 7.0% Jakarta International Aircraft Movements (000) 62 202 8.2%
Airlines ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Airports ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Airspace ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Economic & Social Impact ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Implementation
Immediate Action Plan - (1) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Immediate Action Plan - (2) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Medium / Long-Term Plan – Aviation Law ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Medium / Long-Term Plan - Airlines ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Medium / Long-Term Plan - Airspace ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Incorporation of ASEAN Open Skies Policy into  Indonesian Law
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Proposals Aviation Law ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Proposals Competition Law ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Demand Forecasts
Uses for the Demand Forecast ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Indonesia in ASEAN Source: World Bank most recent statistics  Country Population (millions) GDP Real Growth (2010) Indonesia 245.6 $540.3bn Singapore 4.7 $182.2bn Thailand 67.8 $263.8bn Malaysia 27.5 $193.1bn Cambodia 14.8 $10.5bn Brunei 0.4 $11.5bn Laos 6.3 $5.9bn Vietnam 87.3 $97.2bn Myanmar 50.0 Not reported Philippines 92.0 $161.2bn
The Airports
Top 10 Countries by GDP Growth Source: Citigroup Rank Country Average Annual GDP Growth 1 Nigeria 8.5% 2 India 8.0% 3 Iraq 7.7% 4 Bangladesh 7.5% 5 Vietnam  7.5% 6 Philippines 7.3% 7 Mongolia 6.9% 8 Indonesia 6.8% 9 Sri Lanka 6.6% 10 Egypt 6.4%
Major Asian Airports: Passenger Traffic Trends Millions 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 AAGR 2005-2010 2010 vs. 2009 JAKARTA 28.3 29.0 30.9 32.5 37.3 44.0 9.2% 17.8% SINGAPORE 32.4 33.4 35.2 37.7 37.2 42.0 5.3% 13% KUALA LUMPUR 23.3 23.7 26.1 27.6 29.7 34.1 7.9% 14.8% BANGKOK 39.0 41.0 44.3 43.6 40.5 42.8 1.9% 5.6% DELHI 15.1 19.1 23.1 23.2 25.2 28.5 13.6% 13% BEIJING 41.0 48.7 53.6 55.9 65.4 73.9 12.5% 13% HONG KONG 40.3 43.3 46.3 47.9 45.6 50.4 4.6% 10.6%
Indonesia – Shift in Propensity to Fly
Base Forecast – Total Passengers
Base Case Forecast – Aircraft Movements
Base Case – Benefit of Open Skies (Passengers)
Passenger Forecast for Indonesia
Aircraft Movements Forecast for Indonesia
Open Skies Impact - Passengers
Open Skies Impact - Movements
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Impact on Airlines
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Introduction to Indonesian Airline Industry ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Characteristics of Successful Airlines in Liberalised Environments (1) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Characteristics of Successful Airlines in Liberalised Environments (2) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Traffic Performance of Major Airlines (2010)   Source: DGCA   0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 Lion Air Garuda Sriwijaya Air Batavia Air Indonesia AirAsia Merpati Wings Air Passengers (millions) Domestic International
Airline Fleets ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Indonesian Carriers & ASEAN ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
The ASEAN Challenge (1) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
The ASEAN Challenge (2) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Constraints ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Conclusions ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Impact on Airports
Objectives ,[object Object],[object Object]
Study Airports ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Data Gathering (1) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Data Gathering (2) & Development Plans ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Data Gathering (3) & Missing Data ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Assessing Terminal Facility Requirements ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Terminal Facility Shortfall by Airport in 2025 * Planned development included in analysis ** Details of current facilities not available, hence unable to calculate 2025 shortfall Jakarta Surabaya Bali Makassar Medan Balikpapan Manado HBS Screening Lanes 7-18 7-10 7-9 * 4-7 * - ** 0-1 * 0 * Check-in Desks 34-68 0 * 0 * 0 * - ** 0 * 0 * Outbound Passport Control 58 4 7 * 3 * - ** 0 * 0 * Security Search Lanes – Domestic 5-10 2-4 0 * 5-6 * - ** 0 * 0 * Security Search Lanes – International 5-8 0 0 * - ** 0 * 0 * Gate Rooms – Domestic 10 Code C 15 Code C 1 Code E 4 Code C * 11 Code C * - ** 6 Code C * 0 * Gate Rooms – International 8 Code C 2 Code E 6 Code C * 0 * - ** 0 * 0 * Inbound Immigration Desks 35-83 1-9 23-43 * 5-9 * - ** 3-4 * 0 * Reclaim Belts – Domestic 8 Code C 6 Code E 9 Code C 2 Code C * 2 Code E * 4 Code C * - ** 0 * 0 * Reclaim Belts - International 8 Code E 1 Code C 2 Code C * 0 - ** 0 * 0 *
Terminal Facility Requirements: Key points ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Assessment of Airfield Facility Requirements ,[object Object],[object Object]
Airfield Facility Shortfall by Airport in 2025 * Planned development included in analysis ** Details of facilities not available, hence unable to calculate 2025 shortfall Jakarta Surabaya Bali Makassar Medan Balikpapan Manado Runway Capacity – Movements per Hour 61-63 * 9-11 * 4-6 * 10-12 0 * 0 * 0 * Runway Code Adequate * Adequate * Adequate * Adequate * Adequate * Adequate * Adequate * Taxiway Capacity Adequate * Adequate * Adequate * Adequate * Adequate * Adequate * Adequate * Taxiway Code Adequate * Adequate * Adequate * Adequate * Adequate * Adequate * Adequate * Aircraft Stands – Code E 0 * 0 * 0 * 0 * 0 * 0 * 0 * Aircraft Stands – Code C 147 * 56 * 34 * 34 * 11 * 18 * 0 *
Airfield Facility Requirements: Key points ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Safety and Security Issues ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Costs Directly Attributable to ASEAN Open Skies (£’000s)   *  Details of facilities not available, hence unable to calculate 2025 shortfall or costs attributable to ASEAN Open Skies. Costs derived using UK costs without contingency Terminal Facilities  Airfield Facilities  Jakarta Surabaya Bali Makassar Medan Balikpapan Manado Check-in Desks 2,035 0 0 0 - * 0 0 Outbound Passport Control 22.5 6.25 10 3.75 - * 0 0 Security Lanes -  International 1,400 0 0 700 - * 0 0 Gate Rooms – International 4,585 1,310 1,310 0 - * 0 0 Inbound Immigration Desks 1,620 708.75 1,316.25 708.75 - * 303.75 0 Reclaim Belts - International 4,500 750 750 0 - * 0 0 TOTAL COSTS (£M) £14.2M £2.8M £3.4M £1.4M - * £0.3M £0.0M Jakarta Surabaya Bali Makassar Medan Balikpapan Manado Taxilane 4,488 1,870 1,870 748 374 1,122 0 Aircraft Stands 7,128 2,970 2,970 1,188 594 1,782 0 TOTAL COSTS (£M) £11.6M £4.8M £4.8M £1.9M £1.0M £2.9M £0.0M
Conclusions ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Impact on Airspace
Indonesian Airspace
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Current Situation – Airspace Management and Organisation
Future Demand RED =  International traffic BLUE =   Domestic traffic Source : JICA 2008 forecast 2025. ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Key Findings and Proposed Solutions (1) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Key Findings and Proposed Solutions (2) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Key Risks ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Economic and Social Appraisal
Objectives ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Data ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Limitations ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Definitions of Impact
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Current Impacts Source: York Aviation.   Direct Province National Total inc Indirect & Induced Total inc Indirect & Induced Employment GDP  Employment GDP  Employment GDP  Jakarta 77,000 13,710 165,000 29,500 165,000 29,500 Bali 11,000 310 18,000 500 18,000 700 Surabaya 8,000 290 13,000 500 14,000 600 Medan 5,000 220 9,000 400 9,000 500 Makassar 6,000 180 10,000 300 10,000 400 Balikpapan 3,000 370 5,000 600 7,000 800 Manado 2,000 50 3,000 100 3,000 100 Yogykarta 2,000 50 3,000 100 4,000 100 Batam 3,000 220 4,000 300 5,000 500 Banjarmasin 2,000 40 2,000 100 3,000 100 Tarakan 1,000 110 2,000 200 2,000 200 Jayapura 2,000 120 3,000 200 4,000 300 Total 122,000 15,700 237,000 32,600 243,000 33,700
[object Object],[object Object],Total Impacts – Open Skies Effect
[object Object],Employment Impacts – Open Skies Effect by Province Province Direct Own Indirect & Induced Other Indirect & Induced Total Jakarta 10,600 10,100 500 21,200 Bali 2,100 1,200 0 3,300 East Java 1,100 600 0 1,700 North Sumatra 700 400 0 1,000 South Sulawesi 500 100 0 600 East Kalimantan 300 200 0 500 North Sulawesi 100 0 0 100 Yogyakarta 100 100 0 200 Riau 100 0 0 100 South Kalimantan 0 0 0 100 Papua 200 100 0 300
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Cost Benefit Analysis (1)
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Cost Benefit Analysis (2)
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Cost Benefit Analysis - Results Benefits – Indonesian Users Costs – Indonesian Users
[object Object],[object Object],Cost Benefit Analysis - Results
Cost Benefit Analysis - Results Summary of Discounted  Costs and Benefits (IDR Billions)   Indonesian Users All Users Benefits     Journey Time Savings 1,133 2,220 Air Fare Savings 18,426 31,671 Airport Surplus 1,286 1,286 Airline Surplus 1,177 10,473 Government Revenue 4,903 4,903 Total Benefits 26,925 50,553 Costs     Airport Infrastructure -219 -219 ATM Costs -10 -10 Airline Equipment Costs -4,747 -18,557 Total Costs -4,976 -18,786 NPV 21,949 31,767 BCR 5.4 2.7
[object Object],[object Object],Cost Benefit Analysis - Results Location of Discounted Benefits by Airport  (IDR Billions)   Passenger Benefits Producer Benefits Government Revenue Total Jakarta 10,505 2,463 4,903 17,871 Bali 2,994 0 0 2,994 Surabaya 2,430 0 0 2,430 Medan 2,158 0 0 2,158 Makassar 412 0 0 412 Balikpapan 165 0 0 165 Manado 114 0 0 114 Yogykarta 395 0 0 395 Batam 81 0 0 81 Banjarmasin 92 0 0 92 Tarakan 112 0 0 112 Jayapura 101 0 0 101 Total Present Value 19,559 2,463 4,903 26,925
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Wider Impacts
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Wider Impacts
Wider Impacts – the Role of ASEAN Partners   ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Wider Impacts – Tourism (1) ,[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Wider Impacts – Tourism (2)
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Wider Impacts: Economic Transformation Plan
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Wider Impacts: Economic Transformation Plan
Wider Impacts – Connectivity ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Conclusions and Recommendations
Overview
Questions and Answers ,[object Object]

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Presentation draft final report final

  • 1.
  • 2. Agenda Time Minutes Topic Person in Charge 10:00 – 10:30 30 Registration Reception 10:30 – 10:35 5 Introduction DGCA/IndII & Mr Whittle 10:35 – 10:50 15 Summary & Overall Conclusions Mr Whittle 10:50 – 11:00 10 Methodology & Stakeholders Mr Whittle 11:00 – 11:25 25 Policy & Regulation Mr O’Donovan 11:25 – 11:50 25 Demand Forecasts Mr Folley 11:50 – 12:15 25 Airlines Mr Whittle 12:15 – 12:40 25 Airspace LFV 12:40 – 13:05 25 Airports Mr Whittle 13:05 – 13:30 25 Social & Economic Impact Ms Congdon 13:30 – 13:40 10 Implementation Mr Whittle 13:40 – 13:45 5 Closing Remarks Mr Whittle 13:45 – 15:00 75 Question & Answer Session Moderator
  • 3.
  • 4.
  • 6.
  • 7.
  • 8.
  • 9.
  • 10.
  • 11.
  • 13.
  • 14.
  • 15.
  • 16.
  • 17.
  • 18. Incorporation of ASEAN Open Skies Policy into Indonesian Law
  • 19.
  • 20.
  • 21.
  • 22.
  • 24.
  • 25. Indonesia in ASEAN Source: World Bank most recent statistics Country Population (millions) GDP Real Growth (2010) Indonesia 245.6 $540.3bn Singapore 4.7 $182.2bn Thailand 67.8 $263.8bn Malaysia 27.5 $193.1bn Cambodia 14.8 $10.5bn Brunei 0.4 $11.5bn Laos 6.3 $5.9bn Vietnam 87.3 $97.2bn Myanmar 50.0 Not reported Philippines 92.0 $161.2bn
  • 27. Top 10 Countries by GDP Growth Source: Citigroup Rank Country Average Annual GDP Growth 1 Nigeria 8.5% 2 India 8.0% 3 Iraq 7.7% 4 Bangladesh 7.5% 5 Vietnam 7.5% 6 Philippines 7.3% 7 Mongolia 6.9% 8 Indonesia 6.8% 9 Sri Lanka 6.6% 10 Egypt 6.4%
  • 28. Major Asian Airports: Passenger Traffic Trends Millions 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 AAGR 2005-2010 2010 vs. 2009 JAKARTA 28.3 29.0 30.9 32.5 37.3 44.0 9.2% 17.8% SINGAPORE 32.4 33.4 35.2 37.7 37.2 42.0 5.3% 13% KUALA LUMPUR 23.3 23.7 26.1 27.6 29.7 34.1 7.9% 14.8% BANGKOK 39.0 41.0 44.3 43.6 40.5 42.8 1.9% 5.6% DELHI 15.1 19.1 23.1 23.2 25.2 28.5 13.6% 13% BEIJING 41.0 48.7 53.6 55.9 65.4 73.9 12.5% 13% HONG KONG 40.3 43.3 46.3 47.9 45.6 50.4 4.6% 10.6%
  • 29. Indonesia – Shift in Propensity to Fly
  • 30. Base Forecast – Total Passengers
  • 31. Base Case Forecast – Aircraft Movements
  • 32. Base Case – Benefit of Open Skies (Passengers)
  • 35. Open Skies Impact - Passengers
  • 36. Open Skies Impact - Movements
  • 37.
  • 39.
  • 40.
  • 41.
  • 42.
  • 43. Traffic Performance of Major Airlines (2010) Source: DGCA 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 Lion Air Garuda Sriwijaya Air Batavia Air Indonesia AirAsia Merpati Wings Air Passengers (millions) Domestic International
  • 44.
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  • 48.
  • 49.
  • 51.
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  • 53.
  • 54.
  • 55.
  • 56.
  • 57. Terminal Facility Shortfall by Airport in 2025 * Planned development included in analysis ** Details of current facilities not available, hence unable to calculate 2025 shortfall Jakarta Surabaya Bali Makassar Medan Balikpapan Manado HBS Screening Lanes 7-18 7-10 7-9 * 4-7 * - ** 0-1 * 0 * Check-in Desks 34-68 0 * 0 * 0 * - ** 0 * 0 * Outbound Passport Control 58 4 7 * 3 * - ** 0 * 0 * Security Search Lanes – Domestic 5-10 2-4 0 * 5-6 * - ** 0 * 0 * Security Search Lanes – International 5-8 0 0 * - ** 0 * 0 * Gate Rooms – Domestic 10 Code C 15 Code C 1 Code E 4 Code C * 11 Code C * - ** 6 Code C * 0 * Gate Rooms – International 8 Code C 2 Code E 6 Code C * 0 * - ** 0 * 0 * Inbound Immigration Desks 35-83 1-9 23-43 * 5-9 * - ** 3-4 * 0 * Reclaim Belts – Domestic 8 Code C 6 Code E 9 Code C 2 Code C * 2 Code E * 4 Code C * - ** 0 * 0 * Reclaim Belts - International 8 Code E 1 Code C 2 Code C * 0 - ** 0 * 0 *
  • 58.
  • 59.
  • 60. Airfield Facility Shortfall by Airport in 2025 * Planned development included in analysis ** Details of facilities not available, hence unable to calculate 2025 shortfall Jakarta Surabaya Bali Makassar Medan Balikpapan Manado Runway Capacity – Movements per Hour 61-63 * 9-11 * 4-6 * 10-12 0 * 0 * 0 * Runway Code Adequate * Adequate * Adequate * Adequate * Adequate * Adequate * Adequate * Taxiway Capacity Adequate * Adequate * Adequate * Adequate * Adequate * Adequate * Adequate * Taxiway Code Adequate * Adequate * Adequate * Adequate * Adequate * Adequate * Adequate * Aircraft Stands – Code E 0 * 0 * 0 * 0 * 0 * 0 * 0 * Aircraft Stands – Code C 147 * 56 * 34 * 34 * 11 * 18 * 0 *
  • 61.
  • 62.
  • 63. Costs Directly Attributable to ASEAN Open Skies (£’000s) * Details of facilities not available, hence unable to calculate 2025 shortfall or costs attributable to ASEAN Open Skies. Costs derived using UK costs without contingency Terminal Facilities Airfield Facilities Jakarta Surabaya Bali Makassar Medan Balikpapan Manado Check-in Desks 2,035 0 0 0 - * 0 0 Outbound Passport Control 22.5 6.25 10 3.75 - * 0 0 Security Lanes - International 1,400 0 0 700 - * 0 0 Gate Rooms – International 4,585 1,310 1,310 0 - * 0 0 Inbound Immigration Desks 1,620 708.75 1,316.25 708.75 - * 303.75 0 Reclaim Belts - International 4,500 750 750 0 - * 0 0 TOTAL COSTS (£M) £14.2M £2.8M £3.4M £1.4M - * £0.3M £0.0M Jakarta Surabaya Bali Makassar Medan Balikpapan Manado Taxilane 4,488 1,870 1,870 748 374 1,122 0 Aircraft Stands 7,128 2,970 2,970 1,188 594 1,782 0 TOTAL COSTS (£M) £11.6M £4.8M £4.8M £1.9M £1.0M £2.9M £0.0M
  • 64.
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  • 68.
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  • 72. Economic and Social Appraisal
  • 73.
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  • 75.
  • 76.
  • 77.
  • 78.
  • 79.
  • 80.
  • 81.
  • 82.
  • 83.
  • 84. Cost Benefit Analysis - Results Summary of Discounted Costs and Benefits (IDR Billions)   Indonesian Users All Users Benefits     Journey Time Savings 1,133 2,220 Air Fare Savings 18,426 31,671 Airport Surplus 1,286 1,286 Airline Surplus 1,177 10,473 Government Revenue 4,903 4,903 Total Benefits 26,925 50,553 Costs     Airport Infrastructure -219 -219 ATM Costs -10 -10 Airline Equipment Costs -4,747 -18,557 Total Costs -4,976 -18,786 NPV 21,949 31,767 BCR 5.4 2.7
  • 85.
  • 86.
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  • 96.

Hinweis der Redaktion

  1. Importance of ASEAN as trading partners and sources of investment – to what extent will air service liberalisation contribute