The recent controversy surrounding Indiana Attorney General Curtis Hill may not have had much impact on what Hoosiers think of the job he is doing.
As part of our Indy Politics scientific poll of 600 likely voters, conducted last week by Mason Strategies LLC, we asked about Hill’s favorable and unfavorable ratings.
Defensa de JOH insiste que testimonio de analista de la DEA es falso y solici...
What the Hill?
1. “Where Smart Hoosiers Get Their News”
Indiana Statewide Survey Polling Analysis
On behalf of IndyPolitics.org, Mason Strategies conducted a survey of 600 likely voters in Indiana using
live interviewers, from October 15 to 20, 2018. The topline results and methodology statement are
included below. This memo covers state issues. Results on federal races were released on October 23rd
;
results on Indianapolis-specific results will be released later this week.
Indiana and Eric Holcomb:
Compared to the country as a whole, a majority of voters (56%) say Indiana is headed in the right
direction. This sentiment is most felt by Republicans (81%) and Independents (54%). Women (47%) and
non-white voters (28%) are less positive on the direction of the state.
Governor Holcomb has a strong 61%-21% job approval rating, two years into his term. These ratings are
soft: only 22% “strongly approve” and only 12% “strongly disapprove”. Perhaps for that reason, only
37% of voters say that Holcomb deserves re-election in 2020, with 33% saying they’d like to give
someone else a chance and 30% unsure.
Holcomb’s high job approval is due to near universal support among Republicans (75%-7%) and split
support among Democrats (42%-43%). Only 28% of Democrats “strongly disapprove” of Holcomb’s job
performance. Unlike other political figures and ballot tests, there is hardly any gender gap, as a majority
of both men (66%) and women (58%) say they approve of Holcomb.
Curtis Hill:
Despite being in the news for sexual harassment complaints (the special prosecutor announced
yesterday that Hill would not face criminal charges), a plurality of voters say they approve of the job that
Hill is doing as Attorney General, with 31% saying approve, 22% saying they disapprove, and 48% saying
they are unsure.
The high number of unsure voters means either that the news about Hill has not had a significant impact
in the minds of voters, or that they are waiting-and-seeing what comes of the investigation into the
claims against him. This survey was conducted entirely before yesterday’s announcement.
Hill’s approval rating is higher among Republicans (38%-11%) than Democrats (22%-34%), and among
men (34%-27%) compared to women (28%-17%), but in all cases, more than 40% of these subgroups
remain unsure about his job performance.
2. “Where Smart Hoosiers Get Their News”
Legislative Proposals
A strong majority, 60%, support the Indiana state legislature passing hate crimes legislation. Support is
highest among Democrats (78%) and Independents (64%), but even a plurality of Republicans support it,
47% to 31%.
Even more, 62%, support increasing the cigarette tax up to $2 more per pack and using the revenues to
fund public health campaigns and anti-smoking initiatives. A majority of all parties support this: 53%
among Republicans, 67% among Independents, and 70% among Democrats.
3. “Where Smart Hoosiers Get Their News”
Topline Results
Indiana Statewide Survey
n=600 likely voters
October 15 - 20, 2018
Introduction & Screener Questions
1. First, are you or any member of your family a member of the news media, a public relations
company, or an active participant with any political campaign?
No 100%
2. When there are elections for U.S. Senate and Congress, do you always vote, almost always vote,
vote most of the time, vote some of the time, hardly ever vote, or never vote?
Always vote 77%
Almost always vote 14%
Vote most of the time 9%
3. How enthusiastic would you say you are about voting for Congress this year -- extremely
enthusiastic, very enthusiastic, somewhat enthusiastic, not too enthusiastic, or not at all
enthusiastic?
Extremely enthusiastic 41%
Very enthusiastic 30%
Somewhat enthusiastic 19%
Not too enthusiastic 6%
Not at all enthusiastic 3%
DK/Refused 1%
4. “Where Smart Hoosiers Get Their News”
Ballots & Re-Election
4. [released on October 23]
5. [released on October 23]
6. If the election for Indiana Secretary of State were held tomorrow, would you vote for [ROTATE]
Connie Lawson, the Republican; Jim Harper, the Democrat [END ROTATE], or Mark Rutherford,
the Libertarian? IF VOTE: Is that definitely or likely?
TOTAL LAWSON 45%
Definitely Lawson 39%
Likely Lawson 6%
TOTAL HARPER 37%
Definitely Harper 33%
Likely Harper 4%
TOTAL RUTHERFORD 4%
Definitely Rutherford 2%
Likely Rutherford 2%
Undecided/Refused 14%
7. [released on October 23]
8. [embargoed for future release]
9. [embargoed for future release]
5. “Where Smart Hoosiers Get Their News”
Direction/Job Approval
10. [released on October 23]
11. Now thinking about just here in the state, would you say that things in Indiana are headed in the
right direction, or have things gotten off on the wrong track?
Right Direction 56%
Wrong Track 30%
DK/Refused 14%
12. [embargoed for future release]
13. [released on October 23]
14. Do you approve or disapprove of the job that Eric Holcomb is doing as Governor? PROBE: Is that
strongly or somewhat?
TOTAL APPROVE 61%
Strongly approve 22%
Somewhat approve 36%
TOTAL DISAPPROVE 22%
Strongly disapprove 12%
Somewhat disapprove 10%
Undecided/Refused 17%
15. Do you approve or disapprove of the job that Curtis Hillis doing as Attorney General? PROBE: Is
that strongly or somewhat?
TOTAL APPROVE 31%
Strongly approve 8%
Somewhat approve 23%
TOTAL DISAPPROVE 22%
Strongly disapprove 12%
Somewhat disapprove 10%
Undecided/Refused 48%
16. [embargoed for future release]
6. “Where Smart Hoosiers Get Their News”
Legislative Issues
17. [released on October 23]
18. [released on October 23]
19.
20.
21. [Q19 – Q23 embargoed for future release]
22.
23.
24. Moving on, do you favor or oppose Indiana increasing the tax on a pack of cigarettes up to $2
more and using those revenues to fund public health and anti-smoking initiatives? PROBE: Is
that strongly or somewhat?
TOTAL FAVOR 62%
Strongly favor 43%
Somewhat favor 18%
TOTAL OPPOSE 31%
Strongly oppose 22%
Somewhat oppose 9%
Undecided/Refused 7%
25. Finally, do you favor or oppose Indiana passing hate crimes legislation at the state level? PROBE:
Is that strongly or somewhat?
TOTAL FAVOR 60%
Strongly favor 45%
Somewhat favor 16%
TOTAL OPPOSE 21%
Strongly oppose 14%
Somewhat oppose 8%
Undecided/Refused 18%
7. “Where Smart Hoosiers Get Their News”
Demographics
26. Wrapping up, I have just a few more questions for demographic purposes only. First, in which of
the following ranges is your age:
18-40 20%
41-54 22%
55-64 20%
65 or older 37%
Refused 2%
27. Gender [BY OBSERVATION]:
Male 47%
Female 53%
28. Which of the following best describes your race or ethnicity?
White 85%
Hispanic or Latino 1%
African-American 7%
Asian-American *
Something else 3%
Refused 3%
29. If you had to label yourself, would you say you are a [ROTATE] liberal, moderate, or
conservative in your political beliefs? IF LIBERAL OR CONSERVATIVE, PROBE: Is that very
[liberal/conservative] or somewhat?
TOTAL CONSERVATIVE 45%
Very conservative 26%
Somewhat conservative 19%
TOTAL MODERATE 31%
TOTAL LIBERAL 20%
Somewhat liberal 10%
Very liberal 10%
8. “Where Smart Hoosiers Get Their News”
DK/Refused 4%
30. In politics, do you generally consider yourself to be a (ROTATE) Republican, Independent, or
Democrat? IF REPUBLICAN OR DEMOCRAT, PROBE: Is that a strong (Republican/Democrat) or
not-so-strong?
TOTAL REPUBLICAN 42%
Strong Republican 30%
Not-so-strong Republican 9%
TOTAL INDEPENDENT 20%
TOTAL DEMOCRAT 33%
Not-so-strong Democrat 7%
Strong Democrat 26%
Other 1%
DK/Refused 4%
31. What is the highest level of education you have completed?
Some high school 2%
Graduated high school 22%
Some college or associate’s 25%
Graduated college 27%
Masters/Post-Graduate 22%
DK/Refused 2%
32. Which of the following categories best describes your annual household income?
IF REFUSED INITIALLY: This information is for demographic purposes and is confidential. Which
of these broad income categories best describes your annual household income?
Less than $25,000 9%
$25,000 to less than $50,000 19%
$50,000 to less than $100,000 29%
$100,000 to less than $150,000 14%
$150,000 or more 8%
DK/Refused 23%
9. “Where Smart Hoosiers Get Their News”
33. Region [FROM SAMPLE]
North 29%
Central 46%
South 25%
34. Phone [FROM SAMPLE]
Landline 70%
Cell Phone 30%
Thank you for your time. This call was authorized and paid for by Indy Politics.
10. “Where Smart Hoosiers Get Their News”
Methodology Statement
On behalf of IndyPolitics.org, Mason Strategies, LLC, a research firm located out of Woodbridge, Virginia, conducted a telephone
survey of 601 likely voters in Indiana. The survey was completed from October 15 - 20, 2018 using live interviewers from a call
center who called landline and cell phones. The survey used RBS (Registration-Based Sampling) methodology, using voter
registration records to create a random sample of voters who have voted in at least one of the previous four general elections in
Indiana, or were newly registered to vote in Indiana. The final sample was weighted for region, age, and education.
The survey has a margin of error of +/- 3.9% at the 95% confidence level. The margin of error applies to each individual data
point at the topline level. When applying margins of error to relative analysis (e.g., a ballot test), it would apply to each data
point and not the margin between the two. Thus, even a difference greater than 3.9% between two data points may not be
statistically significant. Sampling error is larger for subgroup analysis.
The survey was designed to minimize error through question wording and sequence; however, every question asked introduces
some element of bias in the questions that follow.
Pollster Contact Information:
Stephen Spiker
President/Owner, Mason Strategies, LLC
(757) 618-0676
stephen.spiker@gmail.com
Sponsor Contact Information:
Abdul-Hakim Shabazz
IndyPolitics.org
(317) 727-1250
attyabdul@gmail.com