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A.T. Kearney - Bookrepublic: Do Readers Dream of Electronic Books?

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Giovanni Bonfanti and Marco Ferrario offer a scenario of the eBook market (World, Europe and Italy).

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A.T. Kearney - Bookrepublic: Do Readers Dream of Electronic Books?

  1. 1. Reading Digital: Where Are We? Where Are We Going?Do Readers Dream of Electronic Books?e-book marketMilan, March 2013Giovanni Bonfanti (A.T. Kearney), Edoardo Bottai (A.T. Kearney), Marco Ferrario (BookRepublic)
  2. 2. PrefaceObjective ■ Provide an overview of digital publishing in Europe, Asia, South America and North America, highlighting the primary differences and emerging trendsApproach ■We surveyed countries that cover 80% of the global book market ■All numbers presented for 2013 derive from: • 40 interviews with key players (publishers, retailers…) from major markets1 • Analysis of public data from public sources / press search ■This is an ongoing research project that debuted at IfBookThen 2011 and was presented in Frankfurt, London and New YorkAll the analysis presented in these pages are a summary of a larger researchthat was developed as a joint effort of A.T. Kearney and Bookrepublic1. EU: UK, France, Spain, Germany, Italy, Denmark, Sweden, Norway, Netherlands; North America: US, Canada; South America: Brazil, Mexico, Argentina; Asia: Japan, India, China, Australia, South Korea A.T. Kearney 2
  3. 3. eBook market size is ~€3.5 Bn – Europe is second largestregion, driven by UK impressive growtheBook Trade Market Size Regional eBook Market Share by Country(mln€; 2011; 2012E) +32% • U.S.: 95% 2500 • Canada: 5% 2011 2012 • UK: 64% • Germany: 22% 1900 • France: 4% • South Korea: 32% • Italy: 3% • Japan: 32% • Spain: 3% • China: 23% • Other: ~4% • India: 9% • Other: ~4% +200% • Brazil: 40% - 50% +69% 540 440 260 180 1 5 North America South America Asia Europe eBook penetration 23-24% <0.1% 3.6%-3.9% 3.4%-3.6%Source: interview with a panel of publishers / bookretailers, press search, EUROSTA, PWC, U.S. Bureau, AAP, A.T. Kearney / Bookrepublic analysis A.T. Kearney 3
  4. 4. Key market figures by country in 2012 - value 14.0%eBook Market Penetration(%; 2012E, value) 3.5% UK 1.2% 2.8% Germany 23.9% France 1.5% Japan 1.5% 2.6% Spain Italy U.S. China <1% India 1.7% E-book penetration <1% on total book market Selection of countries Brazil Australia analyzed2012 USA Brazil Australia Japan China India UK Germany France Italy Spain Availability of titles 2,000,000 (100.000 self 11,000 600,000 70,000 300,000 n.a. 1,750,000 120,000 100,000 25,000 28,000 in local language published) Tablet Penetration 60 - 3.8 5.0 12 5.9 3.2 5.4 2.7 1.6 (mln; %) 25% <0.5% 16.8% 4.0% 0.9% <1% 9.5% 3.9% 8.7% 4.5% 3.4% eReader 48 1.0 9.0 3.8 1.5 0.45 0.4 0.9 penetration n.a. n.a 20% 0.8% 0.7% n.a 4.9% 1.8% 0.7% 0.6% 1.9% (mln; %) eBook buyer 58 15 4 8 n.a 25 10 8 2 n.a. 4 (mln)Source: interview with a panel of publishers / bookretailers, press search, EUROSTA, PWC, U.S. Bureau, AAP, A.T. Kearney / Bookrepublic analysis., Bowker, Harris Interactive Kearney A.T. Poll, Pew 4Internet
  5. 5. Key market figures by country in 2012 - volumeeBook Market Penetration (trade)(%; 2012E, volume) 20.0% 1.0% Sweden 4.9% 34,0% UK 1.7% 5,5% Germany France 2.5% Japan 2.5% U.S. Spain ItalyXx% E-book penetration (volume) Selection of countries analyzed 2012 USA Japan Sweden UK Germany France Italy Spain Trade 34% 5.5% 1.0% 20% 4.9% 1.7% 2.5% 2.1% Self Publishing 2% <0.1% <0.1% n.a <0.1% n.a <0.1% <0.1% A.T. Kearney 5Source: interview with a panel of publishers / bookretailers, press search, EUROSTA, PWC, U.S. Bureau, AAP, A.T. Kearney / Bookrepublic analysis., Harris Interactive Poll, Pew Internet
  6. 6. So far, the main European markets’ growth has outpacedforecasted ones…Expected penetration of eBooks after 5 years from adoption This year Forecast(% of trade book sales) Last year Forecast 22% 20.4% 20% 20% 18% 18% 16% 16% 14.0% 14% +0.8 14% 12% p.p. 12% +4.0 10% 8.1% 10% p.p. 8% 8% 10.0% 6% 6% 3.5%Penetration Penetration 4% 4% 2% 2% 0% 2.7% 0% 20% 1 2 2011 3 2012 4 5 20% 2011 2012 18% 18% 16% 16% 14% 14% 12% +0.5 12% +0.9 10% p.p. 10% p.p. 8% 7.2% 6.0% 8% 6% 6% 4% 4% 1.5% 1.5% 2% 2% 0% 0% 1.0% 0.6% 3 3 2011 2012 2011 2012 A.T. Kearney 6
  7. 7. …and in volume terms the relevance of ebook will be evenhigher in the coming yearsExpected penetration of eBooks volume(% of trade book sales) Comments 59% US • In 2014, U.S. market will60% experienced the overtake of 53% the digital quantities: books50% will sold more digital than 46% paper UK40% • UK market will continue to be 36% 41% the “best proxy” of the U.S. market, and the countries to 35%30% be analyzed to capture “what’s 20% next” in the European market 29% 20%20% Average main 13% European • In 2015, In Europe, 1 book out countries of 5 will be digital10% 8% • Germany • France 4% • Italy • Spain 0% • Sweden 2012 2013 2014 2015Source: interview with a panel of European publishers, press research; A.T. Kearney / BookRepublic analysis A.T. Kearney 7
  8. 8. European average price has declined over the last three years,this in fact will erode margins in the futureEuropean Average Price(€ - average from interviews with publishers / book retailers )10 – 12 € Price drivers 12 • Drivers that could raise the price: – Consumer perception: 10 - Price of “correspondent” print book – Law: - Fixed price law 8 7-8€ - Commissionaire Model adoption 6 6-7€ • Drivers that could push down the price: – Consumer perception 4 - Special deals (i.e. Amazon) - Price of other “mobile 2 entertainments” (apps, MP3…) - Self publishing - Revenue model (subscription 0 0,2-1€ model; pay per read…) 2010 2012 – Law: - VAT reduction - Retail model adoption A.T. Kearney 8
  9. 9. The challenge is to look beyond the trade ebook marketWhere we are… …New areas to be explored Paid ebook Collaborate with other media players to maximize return of investments in • Growing in quantities but eroding technology and better seize content margins • Should be seen as a stepping stone to opening up new opportunities Address and seize the power of a larger • …is not just content customer base: readers are in fact much more than only trade (self publishing, free and piracy) Enhance content and service leveraging on new technologies and opportunities driven by dataHow to capture opportunities from these new areas?Source: A.T. Kearney / BookRepublic A.T. Kearney 9
  10. 10. To catch these business opportunities publishing players shouldbe able to “play” with three pillars of digitalPublishing is going to be… • Enable further readers’ engagement • Evolve the reading experience in a social experience Technology • Enable multi-level reading paths • Enable new ways to get the content • Become “retailers“: know and profile your own customer • Track market reactions in real time Data • Treat literature and stories as big-data • Measure any kind of interaction between content and user Content • “Publish stuff that matters” (Tim OReilly) A.T. Kearney 10
  11. 11. A.T. Kearney is a global team of forward-thinking, collaborative partners that delivers immediate, meaningfulresults and long-term transformative advantage to clients.Since 1926, we have been trusted advisors on CEO-agenda issues to the world’s leading organizations acrossall major industries and sectors. A.T. Kearney’s offices are located in major business centers in 38 countries.Americas Atlanta Chicago Detroit Mexico City San Francisco Toronto Calgary Dallas Houston New York São Paolo Washington, D.C.Asia Pacific Bangkok Hong Kong Kuala Lumpur Mumbai Seoul Singapore Tokyo Beijing Jakarta Melbourne New Delhi Shanghai SydneyEurope Amsterdam Budapest Helsinki Ljubljana Moscow Prague Vienna Berlin Copenhagen Istanbul London Munich Rome Warsaw Brussels Düsseldorf Kiev Madrid Oslo Stockholm Zurich Bucharest Frankfurt Lisbon Milan Paris StuttgartMiddle East Abu Dhabi Johannesburg Riyadhand Africa Dubai Manama A.T. Kearney 11
  12. 12. Bookrepublic is a leading Italian player within IFBOOKTHEN is an international network ofthe digital publishing industry with an local events taking place in Milan, Stockholm,integrated system including: Madrid and Barcelona, providing trends and top highlights about the digital publishingThe first Italian Independent ebookstore with business.a growing customer base who appreciates highquality editorial contents. The ongoing  The local formats grant the upcome ofinteraction with the reader and the creation of a specific issues related to any single market; thepartecipatory meeting place for readers, discussion inside the network allows a greatpublishers, booksellers and authors enhanced by exchange of different experiences.original reading paths, contribute to hisdistinctive positioning in the Italian market.An advanced ebook distribution platform forsmall and medium sized publishing houses withthe most advanced online tools and services.Our positioning: Visit us: http://www.bookrepublic.it Original https://exlibris.bookrepublic.it/ Contents http://www.ifbookthen.com Ongoing Unique Interaction Care for with Partners Readers A.T. Kearney 12
  13. 13. ContactsGiovanni Bonfanti Marco FerrarioPrincipal CEO / CofounderA.T. Kearney Bookrepublicgiovanni.bonfanti@atkearney.com marco.ferrario@digitpub.it+39 02 76295 225 +39 335 604 6861Edoardo Bottai Marco GhezziManager COO / CofounderA.T. Kearney Bookrepublicedoardo.bottai@atkearney.com marcog@bookrepublic.it+39 02 76295 476 +39 348 22 44 836 A.T. Kearney 13

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