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The Battle for Damascus: The Current State of Play in Syria
•   Recent rebel victories in the Syrian capital region, such as the closure of the Damascus International airport, have
    led to speculation that the Assad regime may be close to collapse. While this is possible, it is also important to
    recognize that the regime still maintains control of downtown Damascus despite these significant victories for the
    opposition. This elevates the question of where specifically the regime still maintains control in Damascus.

•   The regime has consolidated much of its forces in the Damascus city center and reduced patrolling in suburbs with
    robust opposition presence. In retaliation for rebel activity in these neighborhoods, the regime is responding
    broadly with air strikes and artillery, and with civilian massacres in the Sunni southern neighborhoods of Damascus.

•   A operational map that may derive from a Syrian Republican Guard source has surfaced through social media. The
    map portrays where the regime retains control in the capital region, as well as the areas that are rebel held or
    contested. If genuine, it also provides the regime’s perspective on the state of play in Damascus. ISW has adapted
    this map and augmented to include the locations of regime military facilities in Damascus as well as ISW observed
    attack trends. The map appears to be an accurate guideline; however, it does not suggest that the regime is
    incapable of patrolling in rebel held zones, nor that rebels cannot attack in regime held zones. In fact, most of the
    major car bombs have occurred within downtown Damascus.

•   Alawite-majority neighborhoods to the west of Damascus and critical military facilities close to downtown have
    bolstered regime security. On the other hand, rebel held zones in Damascus’ northeastern suburbs, known as
    Eastern Ghoutta, are surprisingly close to downtown Damascus. The fighting is likely to be most fierce in the
    southern suburbs of Damascus in the coming weeks as rebels and regime forces fight over key neighborhoods, such
    as Jaramana and Aqraba, consistent with the map’s depiction.
Damascus State of Play
                                                                                            As of 7 December 2012




                                                    Al-Assad


                                                                  Harasta
                                                     Barzeh                         Douma
              Qudssaya
                                                                   Irbin
                                                                            Saqba
                                    Damascus                   Zamalka
                Mazzeh 86
                             Al-Louan
                                             Yarmouk Jaramana
Mouadamiyah                                 Yalda                Aqraba
                         Darayya
                                                         Sayyida Zeinab


                                        Hajar al-Aswad




This map is adapted from a document reportedly recovered from the Syrian Republican Guard troops that
characterizes the state of play in Damascus as of 11/25/2012. Original found on a Syrian Activist Facebook Page.
The original map displayed above was recovered 11/25/2012 from Facebook Page ‫“ يوميات الثائر المتفائل‬Diary of the
Optimistic Rebel.” The Facebook page indicates that it was recovered from a Syrian Republican Guard source,
which cannot be verified, but is assessed to be likely.
•
                                                                                        1   Harasta has had consistent presence
                                                                                            from the 104th & 105th Regiments of the
Damascus                                             Al-Assad           Douma
                                                                                            Republican Guard. The so-called al-Assad
                                                                                            suburb is a large housing complex behind
As of 7 December 2012                                   1                                   Harasta with a density of Alawites.
                                                            Harasta
                                            Barzeh                                      •
                                                                                        2   Qudssaya is called “The Lion’s Den”
           2                                                 Irbin                          because of the large number of Alawite
               Qudssaya
                                                                                            regime supporters in this neighborhood.
                               Damascus          Zamalka
                   3
                                                                Saqba                   •
                                                                                        3   Mazzeh 86 is an Alawite slum and the
                   Mazzeh 86                                                                point of origin for many pro-regime
                                                                                            militias, called Shabiha.
                          Al-Louan                                              4
                                                                                        •
                                                                                        4   The rebels recently overran Marj e-Sultan
               6
                                     Yarmouk                                                Airbase.
                                                        5 Jaramana
                                         Yalda                                          •
                                                                                        5   Jaramana is ethnically mixed with many
  Mouadamiyah Darayya                                  Aqraba
                                                 7                                          Druze. There have been reports of
                                                 Sayyida Zeinab                             Popular Committees and pro-regime
                                      Hajar al-Aswad                                        Shabiha working closely with regime
                                                                                            forces there.

                                                                                        •
                                                                                        6   Mazzeh Military airport and its nearby
                                                                                            military bases are home to the 4th
                                                                                    8
                                                                                            Armored Division. These bases protect
                                                                                            central Damascus from the rebel forces in
                                                                                            Darayya and Moadamiyah.

                                                                                        •
                                                                                        7   Seyedda Zeinab houses the Seyedda
Damascus is still a stronghold of the Assad regime, but according to this                   Zeinab shrine, an important Shia holy
map not all of Damascus province falls under regime control. This map                       site. The neighborhood is dominated by
may illustrate the degree to which the Syrian Republican Guard (SRG)                        Shia, and there have been some reports
credits the opposition with territorial control in Damascus. Regime security                that Iraqi Shia militants have travelled to
                                                                                            the neighborhood to help protect it from
forces continue to defend in the West. Facilities and Shia neighborhoods                    the mostly-Sunni opposition.
in the East are threatened by rebel expansion. Key military installations in
southern and western Damascus along with nearby Alawite-majority                        •
                                                                                        8   Recent probes and IDF at Damascus
neighborhoods contribute significantly to the regime’s defenses.                            international airport have led the regime
                                                                                            to close the airport, at least temporarily.
Damascus State of Play                                          Al-Assad             Douma
 As of 7 December 2012

                                                                      Harasta
                                                           Barzeh
                         Qudssaya                                          Irbin


                                             Damascus            Zamalka      Saqba


                              Mazzeh 86

                                          Al-Louan
                                                        Yarmouk Jaramana

                                                          Yalda
                   Mouadamiyah        Darayya                      Aqraba
                                                                Sayyida Zeinab

                                                     Hajar al-Aswad




This map juxtaposes the SRG-assessed state of play in Damascus with a density map of kinetic events tracked by
ISW from 10/01/12 to 12/06/2012. Based upon this map, ISW has observed the highest levels of kinetic activity in
Eastern areas that are no longer contested by regime ground forces, although shelling and airstrikes continue.
The SRG characterization of contested areas is also consistent with areas observed by ISW to have high
densities of kinetic events, such as Jaramana, Darayya, and Barzeh. It is also significant to note that
neighborhoods denoted as regime-held also witnesses a significant degree of kinetic activity, even in the
westernmost Mouadamiyah neighborhood, indicating that rebel forces can also attack Damascus from the West.
The center of Damascus, where few events occur, is the actual regime stronghold.
@TheStudyofWar   www.facebook.com/InstituteForTheStudyofWar

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The Battle for Damascus: The Current State of Play in Syria

  • 2. Recent rebel victories in the Syrian capital region, such as the closure of the Damascus International airport, have led to speculation that the Assad regime may be close to collapse. While this is possible, it is also important to recognize that the regime still maintains control of downtown Damascus despite these significant victories for the opposition. This elevates the question of where specifically the regime still maintains control in Damascus. • The regime has consolidated much of its forces in the Damascus city center and reduced patrolling in suburbs with robust opposition presence. In retaliation for rebel activity in these neighborhoods, the regime is responding broadly with air strikes and artillery, and with civilian massacres in the Sunni southern neighborhoods of Damascus. • A operational map that may derive from a Syrian Republican Guard source has surfaced through social media. The map portrays where the regime retains control in the capital region, as well as the areas that are rebel held or contested. If genuine, it also provides the regime’s perspective on the state of play in Damascus. ISW has adapted this map and augmented to include the locations of regime military facilities in Damascus as well as ISW observed attack trends. The map appears to be an accurate guideline; however, it does not suggest that the regime is incapable of patrolling in rebel held zones, nor that rebels cannot attack in regime held zones. In fact, most of the major car bombs have occurred within downtown Damascus. • Alawite-majority neighborhoods to the west of Damascus and critical military facilities close to downtown have bolstered regime security. On the other hand, rebel held zones in Damascus’ northeastern suburbs, known as Eastern Ghoutta, are surprisingly close to downtown Damascus. The fighting is likely to be most fierce in the southern suburbs of Damascus in the coming weeks as rebels and regime forces fight over key neighborhoods, such as Jaramana and Aqraba, consistent with the map’s depiction.
  • 3. Damascus State of Play As of 7 December 2012 Al-Assad Harasta Barzeh Douma Qudssaya Irbin Saqba Damascus Zamalka Mazzeh 86 Al-Louan Yarmouk Jaramana Mouadamiyah Yalda Aqraba Darayya Sayyida Zeinab Hajar al-Aswad This map is adapted from a document reportedly recovered from the Syrian Republican Guard troops that characterizes the state of play in Damascus as of 11/25/2012. Original found on a Syrian Activist Facebook Page.
  • 4. The original map displayed above was recovered 11/25/2012 from Facebook Page ‫“ يوميات الثائر المتفائل‬Diary of the Optimistic Rebel.” The Facebook page indicates that it was recovered from a Syrian Republican Guard source, which cannot be verified, but is assessed to be likely.
  • 5. 1 Harasta has had consistent presence from the 104th & 105th Regiments of the Damascus Al-Assad Douma Republican Guard. The so-called al-Assad suburb is a large housing complex behind As of 7 December 2012 1 Harasta with a density of Alawites. Harasta Barzeh • 2 Qudssaya is called “The Lion’s Den” 2 Irbin because of the large number of Alawite Qudssaya regime supporters in this neighborhood. Damascus Zamalka 3 Saqba • 3 Mazzeh 86 is an Alawite slum and the Mazzeh 86 point of origin for many pro-regime militias, called Shabiha. Al-Louan 4 • 4 The rebels recently overran Marj e-Sultan 6 Yarmouk Airbase. 5 Jaramana Yalda • 5 Jaramana is ethnically mixed with many Mouadamiyah Darayya Aqraba 7 Druze. There have been reports of Sayyida Zeinab Popular Committees and pro-regime Hajar al-Aswad Shabiha working closely with regime forces there. • 6 Mazzeh Military airport and its nearby military bases are home to the 4th 8 Armored Division. These bases protect central Damascus from the rebel forces in Darayya and Moadamiyah. • 7 Seyedda Zeinab houses the Seyedda Damascus is still a stronghold of the Assad regime, but according to this Zeinab shrine, an important Shia holy map not all of Damascus province falls under regime control. This map site. The neighborhood is dominated by may illustrate the degree to which the Syrian Republican Guard (SRG) Shia, and there have been some reports credits the opposition with territorial control in Damascus. Regime security that Iraqi Shia militants have travelled to the neighborhood to help protect it from forces continue to defend in the West. Facilities and Shia neighborhoods the mostly-Sunni opposition. in the East are threatened by rebel expansion. Key military installations in southern and western Damascus along with nearby Alawite-majority • 8 Recent probes and IDF at Damascus neighborhoods contribute significantly to the regime’s defenses. international airport have led the regime to close the airport, at least temporarily.
  • 6. Damascus State of Play Al-Assad Douma As of 7 December 2012 Harasta Barzeh Qudssaya Irbin Damascus Zamalka Saqba Mazzeh 86 Al-Louan Yarmouk Jaramana Yalda Mouadamiyah Darayya Aqraba Sayyida Zeinab Hajar al-Aswad This map juxtaposes the SRG-assessed state of play in Damascus with a density map of kinetic events tracked by ISW from 10/01/12 to 12/06/2012. Based upon this map, ISW has observed the highest levels of kinetic activity in Eastern areas that are no longer contested by regime ground forces, although shelling and airstrikes continue. The SRG characterization of contested areas is also consistent with areas observed by ISW to have high densities of kinetic events, such as Jaramana, Darayya, and Barzeh. It is also significant to note that neighborhoods denoted as regime-held also witnesses a significant degree of kinetic activity, even in the westernmost Mouadamiyah neighborhood, indicating that rebel forces can also attack Damascus from the West. The center of Damascus, where few events occur, is the actual regime stronghold.
  • 7. @TheStudyofWar www.facebook.com/InstituteForTheStudyofWar