Presented by Amos Omore at the Maziwa Zaidi Review and Planning Meeting, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania 30 March-1 April 2015

1. Maziwa Zaidi:
From Impact Pathways (“What to achieve”)
to
Theory of Change (“How, Why and So What along the way”)
Amos Omore
Theory of Change Validation workshop
March 31, 2015 Dar es Salaam

2. THE
EFFECTS
THE CAUSES Poor access to
veterinary
services
Poor quality
feeds / feeding
practices
Poor disease
control
programs
Low capacity to
extend technical
knowledge and
information
WHOLE VALUE CHAIN WITH DOWNSTREAM EMPHASIS
INPUTS & SERVICES PRODUCTION MARKETING CONSUMPTION
1. Low productivity
2. Poor access to production and market inputs and services
Poor nutrition Food insecurity / hidden hungerPovertyTHE IMPACT
Inconsistent
access to water/
seasonality
1. Cattle keepers’ have low capacity to innovate, manage risk, reduce vulnerability,
increase incomes, and ensure food security.
2. The sector is starved of appropriate credit facilities that can finance acquisition of basic
inputs and services.
3. Low investment in productivity improving innovations has perpetuated a low-input
low-output vicious cycle.
INTERVENTION
AREAS
small-scale nature of
the production systems
Low
genetic
potential
Problem statement
Lack of appropriate
organizational approaches
few and poorly linked
BDS providers
Low access inputs and
services
ASSOCIATED
WITH
More milk, income,
assets and better
health & Nutrition

3. Vision: an inclusive and sustainable development of the
dairy value chain.
Long term goals

4. How to get there (impact pathways)

5. Increased milk production Increased household income
from dairy production
Increased
number of
farmers selling
dairy products
to organized
markets
PROGRAMOUTPUT
Healthier dairy
animals;
decreased
morbidity and
mortality
CHANGEINPRACTICEATTITUDEANDKNOWLEDGE
IMMEDIATE
OUTCOMES
Sustainable DMHs
Innovative
Dairy
Marketing
Hub (DMH)
models
INTERMEDIATE
OUTCOMES
Innovative
contractual
arrangement
s (farmers,
traders, and
processors)
Farmers
organize
in groups
Increased
number of
improved dairy
cattle (with
high milk
potential)
Better access to good practices
and information
Feasible
collective action
models for
farmers’
increased access
to inputs and
services
INTERVENTIONS
Build
partnership to
strengthen
extension
delivery,
access to
inputs, and
marketing
services
Facilitate farmers’
group formation
around bundled
input and service
provision and
built their
capacity
Facilitate
contract
negotiations
between
traders,
farmers, and
processors
Develop the capacity
of traders
associations on
market information,
quality assurance
and business
management
Innovative
arrangements
for accessing
financial and
credit
services
Increased
household asset
ownership
Farmers are linked to
MFIs, SACCOs, and
Banks through farmer
groups
Better trained and
ethical input
suppliers
Farmers access check-off system
for marketing and access to
services and inputs
Traders and service
providers operate under
legal associations/groups
Improved dairy animals
Facilitate
the creation
of village
banks and
other credit
access
institutions
Reduced risk of adopting new technologies
and practices
Service providers get
organized under various
platforms for better
service provision
Improved
household nutrition
and health status
Increased household income
from dairy production
PROGRAMOUTPUT
CHANGEINPRACTICEATTITUDEAND
KNOWLEDGE
IMMEDIATE
OUTCOMES
Evidence of
tested best
dairy
practices
INTERMEDIATE
OUTCOMES
Farmers use best dairy
practices
Decreased
outbreaks of
animal
diseases
INTERVENTIONS
Research on sustainable benefits
to influence policy; provide
evidence for scaling out and
scaling up; co-create
technologies and do action
research; use diagnostic studies
to design research
Develop the capacity of
traders associations in
market information,
quality assurance, and
business management
Rational pig
marketing
options
Increased
household asset
ownership
"Next users" and researchers
adapt better mechanisms of
communicating evidence of best
dairy practices
Improved or
same unchanged
status of natural
resources
Lower incidences
of zoonotic
diseases
Healthier dairy
animals
Link farmers’
groups to
apex bodies
including
Tanzania
Dairy Forum
Strategies for
engaging policy and
regulatory bodies
Sustainable
farmer groups
and
organizations
More localized
and incentive
based
regulatory
standards
Improved
household nutrition
and health status
Increased household income
from dairy production
PROGRAMOUTPUT
CHANGEINPRACTICEATTITUDEAND
KNOWLEDGE
IMMEDIATE
OUTCOMES
Evidence of
tested best
dairy
practices
INTERMEDIATE
OUTCOMES
Farmers use best dairy
practices
Decreased
outbreaks of
animal
diseases
INTERVENTIONS
Research on sustainable benefits
to influence policy; provide
evidence for scaling out and
scaling up; co-create
technologies and do action
research; use diagnostic studies
to design research
Develop the capacity of
traders associations in
market information,
quality assurance, and
business management
Rational pig
marketing
options
Increased
household asset
ownership
"Next users" and researchers
adapt better mechanisms of
communicating evidence of best
dairy practices
Improved or
same unchanged
status of natural
resources
Lower incidences
of zoonotic
diseases
Healthier dairy
animals
Link farmers’
groups to
apex bodies
including
Tanzania
Dairy Forum
Strategies for
engaging policy and
regulatory bodies
Sustainable
farmer groups
and
organizations
More localized
and incentive
based
regulatory
standards
Impact pathways for “Maziwa Zaidi” developed
Context of Maziwa Zaidi
Institutional innovations
Technology platforms
and services
Systems Assessments
Increased consumption
of quality products

6. Institutional innovations for value chain transformation
Increased milk production Increased household income
from dairy production
Increased
number of
farmers
selling dairy
products to
organized
markets
PROGRAMOUTPUT
Healthier dairy
animals;
decreased
morbidity and
mortality
CHANGEINPRACTICEATTITUDEANDKNOWLEDGE
IMMEDIATE
OUTCOMES
Sustainable DMHs
Innovative
Dairy
Marketing
Hub (DMH)
models
INTERMEDIATE
OUTCOMES
Innovative
contractual
arrangemen
ts (farmers,
traders, and
processors)
Farmers
organize
in groups
Increased
number of
improved dairy
cattle (with
high milk
potential)
Better access to good practices
and information
Feasible
collective action
models for
farmers’
increased access
to inputs and
services
INTERVENTIONS
Build
partnership to
strengthen
extension
delivery,
access to
inputs, and
marketing
services
Facilitate farmers’ group formation around bundled input and service provision and
built their capacity
Facilitate
contract
negotiations
between
traders,
farmers, and
processors
Develop the capacity
of traders
associations on
market information,
quality assurance
and business
management
Innovative
arrangement
s for
accessing
financial and
credit
services
Increased
household asset
ownership
Farmers are linked to
MFIs, SACCOs, and
Banks through farmer
groups
Better trained and
ethical input
suppliers
Farmers access check-off system
for marketing and access to
services and inputs
Traders and service
providers operate under
legal associations/groups
Improved dairy animals
Facilitate
the
creation of
village
banks and
other credit
access
institutions
Reduced risk of adopting new
technologies and practices
Service providers get
organized under various
platforms for better
service provision
• Sustainable
DMH is at
the centre
of what we
want to
achieve in
the impact
pathways

7. Business model for growing dairy market hubs in
Tanzania
Illustration of a dairy market hub for provision of inputs and services on pay-
off arrangements where there no without collective bulking and marketing
The inputs: Feed,
health, genetics
• Women dominate the short value chains but need to ensure continued or
greater inclusiveness as the VC upgrades

8. Technology platforms and services for value chain transformation

9. Systems assessments to support value chain transformation
Improved
household nutrition
and health status
Increased household
income from dairy
production
PROGRAMOUTPUT
CHANGEINPRACTICEATTITUDEAND
KNOWLEDGE
IMMEDIATE
OUTCOMES
Evidence of
tested best
dairy
practices
INTERMEDIATE
OUTCOMES
Farmers use best dairy
practices
Decreased
outbreaks of
animal
diseases
INTERVENTIONS
Provide evidence for scaling out
and scaling up; co-create
technologies and do action
research; use diagnostic studies
to design research
Develop the capacity of
traders associations in
market information,
quality assurance, and
business management
Effective
dairy
marketing
options
Increased
household asset
ownership
"Next users" and researchers
adapt better mechanisms of
communicating evidence of best
dairy practices
Unchanged
status of natural
resources
Improved quality and of dairy products
lower incidences of zoonotic diseases
Healthier
dairy
animals
Build capacity of actors in
advocacy and lobbying
skills and link farmers’
groups to apex bodies
including Tanzania Dairy
Forum
Strategies for
engaging policy and
regulatory bodies
Sustainable
farmer groups
and
organizations
More localized
and incentive
based
regulatory
standards
Improved quality and of dairy products
and lower incidences of zoonotic
diseases
Rational dairy
marketing
options
Better environment
for pro-poor dairy
development
The DDF
lobbies for
required
policy shift
Policy makers are
aware of the
competitiveness
of the sector

10. Innovative strategies to increase consumption of quality dairy products
Improved
household nutrition
and health status
Farmers diversify farm
products; processors diversify
products
PROGRAMOUTPUT
CHANGEINPRACTICEATTITUDE
ANDKNOWLEDGE
IMMEDIATE
OUTCOMES
Feasible collective
action models for
farmer's increased
access to inputs
and services
INTERMEDIATE
OUTCOMES
Self-
regulation
of farmers
and
traders for
better
quality
dairy
products;
Farmer
Increased
per capita
consumption
of dairy
products
Processors establish
contractual relationships
with DMH to enforce
standards and ensure
stable supply of dairy
products
INTERVENTIONS
Facilitate farmers’
organizations around
marketing, inputs and
services bulking
Link farmer groups with
apex bodies including
Tanzania Dairy Board
Farmers ensure increased intra-
household access to dairy
products
Lower incidences of
zoonotic diseases Dairy products
constitute a good
percentage of
household diets
Households ensure intra-
household equitable distribution
of benefits from dairy production
More localized and
incentive based regulatory
standards
Efficient milk marketing
strategies
Research to understand the
drivers of milk consumption
in Tanzania
Milk campaign
strategies tested and
implemented
High quality
and same
dairy products

11. Underlying key assumption from the IPs
• Poor and smallholder farmers will continue to receive priority in
development programs
– donors’ commitments to development support will be sustained
– government’s commitment to creation of incentives for increasing investment in
agriculture and expansion of the private sector will be sustained.
• ToC will help us to act on this assumption, so that
• By 2017 we can host a large conference with potential investors to talk
about “What works well, where and how”
Private Public
o Milk traders
o Processors,
o BDS providers (e.g., agrovets)
o Producer organizations
o Government (e.g., in public
extension service reform)
o Donors
o Philanthropy

12. The Big Change by 2018
Private and public investors
replicate our pre-commercial hubs
approach in inclusive ways
• Sustainable dairy market hubs is at the centre of what we want
to achieve
• The ToC is supposed to help us define how, why and so what
(causal pathways) to the what
Enhancers/hindr
ances to the BIG
CHANGE
By 2017, what
changes have to
happen to
realize the BIG
CHANGE
By 2015, , what
changes have to
happen to
realize the BIG
CHANGE
What do have to
do now and with
whom