Livestock: The global context
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Presented by Shirley Tarawali, Assistant Director General, ILRI, at the Workshop on Livestock Advocacy and Communications Convening, Addis Ababa, 10–12 November 2015
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Livestock: The global context
- 1. Livestock: the global context Shirley Tarawali, Assistant Director General, ILRI, Kenya Livestock advocacy and communications convening Addis Ababa, Ethiopia 10 – 12 November 2015
- 2. Animalsourcefoods: 5of6highestvalueglobalcommodities (totalvalueofthesefive:USInt$715billion) FAOSTAT 2015 (values for 2013) 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 0 50 100 150 200 250 Production(MT)millions Netproductionvalue(Int$)billion net production value (Int $) billion production (MT) Cow milk has overtaken rice
- 3. Drivers of change: population Anticipated change 2013 – 2050 Asia: +20% Africa: +113% Europe: -4%
- 4. 2015 GDP growth forecast
- 6. Gains in meat consumption in developing countries are outpacing those of developed 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 1980 1990 2002 2015 2030 2050 Millionmetrictonnes developing developed developing at same per cap. as developed (hypothetical) Africa’s food import bill (2013): US $ 44 billion About one fifth is livestock (highest after cereals)
- 7. % growth in demand for livestock products 2000 - 2030 7 0 50 100 150 200 E.AsiaPacific China SouthAsia SSA Highincome Beef 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 E.AsiaPacific China SouthAsia SSA Highincome Pork 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 E.AsiaPacific China SouthAsia SSA Highincome Poultry 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 E.AsiaPacific China SouthAsia SSA Highincome Milk FAO, 2011 Based on anticipated change in absolute tonnes of product comparing 2000 and 2030
- 8. What’s special about animal/smallholder food? •90% of animal products are produced and consumed in the same country or region •Most are produced by smallholders •Over 70% of livestock products are sold ‘informally’ •Almost 1 billion rely on livestock for livelihoods •43% of the agricultural workforce is female
- 9. Demand for livestock commodities in developing economies will be met – the only question is how Scenario #1 Meeting livestock demand by importing livestock products Scenario #2 Meeting livestock demand by importing livestock industrial production know-how Scenario #3 Meeting livestock demand by transforming smallholder livestock systems
- 10. Policy conversations …………..the Sustainable Development Goals…………. ……………livestock ‘bads’ ……………and confusing messages………………….
- 12. Livestock and inclusive, sustainable economic growth Livestock and equitable livelihoods Animal source foods for nutrition and health Livestock and sustainable ecosystems
- 15. Challenges and opportunities • Communicating: • Diversity • Complexity • Balancing messages • ‘goods’ • ‘bads’ • Evidence based; not defensive • Opportunities (transition)
- 16. Sustainable animal food systems are a must • Productivity and efficiency: – Sufficient food with lower environmental foot print: Animal health, genetics, feeding • Animal source foods: – Safe, not wasted and consumed in appropriate quantities • Emerging challenges: – Zoonotic diseases – Anti-Microbial Resistance
- 17. The presentation has a Creative Commons licence. You are free to re-use or distribute this work, provided credit is given to ILRI. better lives through livestock ilri.org